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Global WarmingGlobal WarmingL. David RoperL. David Roper
Professor Emeritus of PhysicsProfessor Emeritus of PhysicsVirginia Polytechnic Inst. & St. Univ.Virginia Polytechnic Inst. & St. Univ.
[email protected]://arts.bev.net/RoperLDavid
Global Warming may be the greatest challenge that humans have encountered in the last 10,000 years.
Last 200 Years Earth Temperature and Population DataLast 200 Years Earth Temperature and Population Data
The rapid temperature increase is very The rapid temperature increase is very similar to the rapid world similar to the rapid world
population increase.population increase.
The root problem is too many people The root problem is too many people caused by the availability of easy energy!caused by the availability of easy energy!
Mother Nature will take care of the Mother Nature will take care of the problem if humans do not.problem if humans do not.
Farming began.
Next Ice Age should have started here.
The Climatic Optimum was not warmer than today!
Carbon-Dioxide Concentration for Carbon-Dioxide Concentration for Last 60 Million YearsLast 60 Million Years
These concentrations correlate well with temperature.
The last time CO2 was 1000 ppmv was 40-million years ago!
Temperature & CO2 are mutually reinforcing (positive feedback).
We are only “smelling the smoke” now;the “fire” is yet to be seen!
8°C
Region of Disaster!
Limit Due to Peak Fossil FuelsLimit Due to Peak Fossil Fuels
Black curve = fossil-fuels & non-fossil fuels emissions.Red points are measured data.
Peak is ~450 ppmv, in the disaster zone!
Limit Due to Peak Fossil FuelsLimit Due to Peak Fossil Fuels
Peak temperature is about 1.3°C above 1700 temperature. It remains
almost level for a long time.
Wild Card of Arctic Carbon ReleaseWild Card of Arctic Carbon Release
~Half of Arctic carbon is released.Puts ppmv well into disaster zone.
Wild Card of Arctic Carbon ReleaseWild Card of Arctic Carbon Release
Peak temperature is about 1.8°C above 1700 temperature and drops
slightly.
Saturation and Arctic Carbon ReleaseSaturation and Arctic Carbon Release
Over 1000 ppmv peak at ~2150!!
Saturation and Arctic Carbon ReleaseSaturation and Arctic Carbon Release
Dotted curve is for climate sensitivity changing from 3 to 4 with time.
Immediate Action Needed!Immediate Action Needed! Move to electric rail transportation for freight Move to electric rail transportation for freight
and mass people movement asap.and mass people movement asap. Change personal transportation to biofueled Change personal transportation to biofueled
plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles asap.plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles asap. Make biofuels using only biofuels.Make biofuels using only biofuels. Build all new buildings with solar collectors Build all new buildings with solar collectors
and gardens on their roofs and with high and gardens on their roofs and with high energy efficiency.energy efficiency.
Do not build any more coal power plants.Do not build any more coal power plants. Use petroleum only for chemicals, not to Use petroleum only for chemicals, not to
burn.burn.
Human-made Global Warming is challenging Human-made Global Warming is challenging our our Homo-sapiensHomo-sapiens brain to recognize the brain to recognize the truth of climate science, make plans to truth of climate science, make plans to mitigate Global Warming and put the plans mitigate Global Warming and put the plans into action. We are having trouble doing all into action. We are having trouble doing all three.three.
ReferencesReferences http://www.roperld.com/science/http://www.roperld.com/science/
GlobalWarmingprediction.htmGlobalWarmingprediction.htm http://www.roperld.com/science/http://www.roperld.com/science/
GlobalWarmingMathematics.htmGlobalWarmingMathematics.htm http://www.roperld.com/science/http://www.roperld.com/science/
sealevelvstemperature.htmsealevelvstemperature.htm http://www.roperld.com/science/http://www.roperld.com/science/
GlobalIceMassLoss.htmGlobalIceMassLoss.htm http://www.roperld.com/science/http://www.roperld.com/science/
GlobalWarmingRoper.htmGlobalWarmingRoper.htm