global warming and sustainability of Indonesia

8/8/2019 global warming and sustainability of Indonesia

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Global Warming and theSustainability of Indonesia

Dana A. KartakusumaAssistant Minister, Technology and Sustainable Development

Ministry of Environment Republic of Indonesia

March 2008


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CONTENTS

The Science of Climate Change (IPCCC, 2007)

Source of Climate Change

Impact to Indonesia

Response: Sustainable Development

Mitigation and Adaptation

National Strategies (Draft)


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Global Warming

Climate Change

Inter correlated


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Greenhouse Gases

Greenhouse gases means those

gaseous constituents of theatmosphere, both natural andanthropogenic, that absorb andre-emit infrared radiation

Kyoto Protocol regulates 6 major

groups of GHGs: CO2 carbon dioxide

CH4 methane

N2O - nitrous oxide

PFCs perfluorocarbons HFCs - hydrofluorocarbons SF6 sulphur hexafluoride


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Most of this

radiation is

absorbed by theEarth and warms it

Some energy is

radiated back into

space by the earth

in the form of

infrared waves

Some of this outgoing

infrared radiation is trapped

by the earths atmosphere

and warms it


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The World Has Warmed

Globally averaged: the planet is about 0.75C warmer than itwas in 1860

Eleven of the last 12 years are among 12 warmest since 1850

in the global average.


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Direct observations of recent climate change

Changes in temperature, sea level and

northern hemisphere snow cover

Global average temperature

Global average sea level

Northern hemispheresnow cover


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ro ec ons o u ure empera ure anges

Best estimate for lowscenario (B1) : 1.8C

(likelyrange 1.1C - 2.9C),

High scenario (A1FI) is 4.0C(likelyrange 2.4C - 6.4C).(IPCC, 2007)


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Energy, agriculture, and forestry

ClimateChange

Fossil

Energy

Agriculture

Forestry

CC impacts

GHG emissions

GHGs

GlobalWarming


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Sources of Climate Change

Fossil Energy Consumption (Oil and Coal) that produce greenhouse gasses

Land Use Change (Forest Fire, Peat Land, and Deforestation)

Anthropogenic activities that produce green house gasses:80% Fossil Energy Consumption + 20% LULUCF

Fossil Energy Consumption

Deforestation


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CO2 Emission from Fossil Energy Consumption

In 2004, Energy sector contributed roughly 280.31 Mt CO2 (PusatInformasi Energi, 2005), or around 80% of the total nationalemission of CO2

The total national emission of CO2from all sectors increases

accordingly in correlation with the increase of fossil energyconsumption and population growth. The industry sector is thehighest contributor of CO

2emission.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Juta TonPembangkit Listrik Industri

Rumah Tangga &Komersial Transportasi

Lainnya

Source: DoEMR


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Energy Intensity Indonesia is high

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Japan OECD Thailand Indonesia Malaysia North

America

Germany

index(Jap

an=100

Energy Intensity Energy per Capita

Source: Ministry of Mines and Energy


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DEFORESTATIONDEFORESTATION

Deforestation rate : Sumatera 1.5 million Ha per year,Deforestation rate : Sumatera 1.5 million Ha per year,Kalimantar 1,12 Million per HectareKalimantar 1,12 Million per Hectare


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IMPACT OF CLIMATECHANGE

Developing countries, inparticular, tropical countries aremost vulnerable to the impact of

climate change


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II

MM

PPAA

CC

TT

Sea Level Rise

Sea TemperatureRise

Air TemperatureRise

IncreasingRainfall

IncreasingPrecipitation

Increasing Tropical Typhoon

Small Island submerged

Sea Water Intrusion

Decreasing of Fish Productio

Disease (Malaria, Dengue)

Floods, Landslides,Cultivation Schedule Chang

Drought, Food Security

Transportation

Water & Food Security


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Projected impacts of climate change (Stern, 2007)

1C 2C 5C4C3C

Sea level rise

threatens major cities

Falling crop yields in many areas, particularlydeveloping regionsFoodFood

WaterWater

EcosystemsEcosystems

Risk of Abrupt andRisk of Abrupt and

Major IrreversibleMajor Irreversible

ChangesChanges

Global temperature change (relative to pre-industrial)0C

Falling yields in many

developed regions

Rising number of species face extinction

Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and

abrupt, large-scale shifts in the climate system

Significant decreases in water

availability in many areas, including

Mediterranean and Southern Africa

Small mountain glaciers

disappear water

supplies threatened inseveral areas

Extensive Damage

to Coral Reefs

ExtremeExtremeWeatherWeather

EventsEvents

Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding and heat waves

Possible rising yields in

some high latitude regions


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Sea Level Rise

The total 20th century global sea-level rise is estimated to be 0.17 [0.12-0.22]m. It is projected to increase 0.18-0.59 m at the end of the century. Archipelago: Sea Level Rise: small island submerged Millions of people must move form coastal areaFloods from world risingsea levels could displace up to 100 million people if no action istaken(Stern Review, 2006)

2050

Source: Susandi et al, 2006Source: Susandi, 2006


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Agriculture

Population Growth: FoodConsumption Increasing

Climate change: El nino, la nina,extreme weather Food productiondecreasing

Food Production vs. Biofuels

The Prices have been significantincreasingIndonesia: most of thecommodities is imported foodsecurity !!!!

1 , 5 0 0

1 , 6 0 0

1 , 7 0 0

1 , 8 0 0

1 , 9 0 0

2 , 0 0 0

2 , 1 0 0

1 9 9 01 9 9 11 9 9 21 9 9 31 9 9 41 9 9 51 9 9 61 9 9 71 9 9 81 9 9 92 0 0 02 0 0 12 0 0 22 0 0 32 0 0 42 0 02

J u t a M eP r o d u k s iK o n s

World Wheat Production and

Consumption (Earth Trend, 2007)


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Environmental Disaster

Flood Drought : Clean WaterShortageWater ResourcesScarcity Typhoon


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Economic Loss

Jakarta Flood (2006): Rp 4.5 Trillion (Bappenas); Rp 8 Trillion (US$500M-800M)

Stern Report: Cut of Worlds GDP (20%/year???) no action (BAU),

while cost of mitigation: about 1-3% of World GDP

Economic loss cause of sea level risein Jakarta

Source: Susandi et al, 200


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Impacts of Impact (1)

Type of Impact 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 Total

A. Human

1. Death2. Loss

3. Refugees

B. Facilities

1. House (bh)

2. Public Facilities (bh)

3. Paddy Field (ha)

4. Road (km)

185

18

388,651

57,087

972

180,603

1,005

216

104

180,901

58,285

201

604,435

217

270

106

102,973

54,479

841

83,927

396

671

228

672,525

169,851

2,014

868,965

1,618

FLOODS

tardi, Department PU, Presentation on Climate Change, Dec 2006


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IMPACT S OF DISASTER (2)

Year Drought Impact (Ha)(Decreasing Production)

P u s o (Ha)

(Failed Harvesting)

1990 s

1994

1995

1996

489.178

18.462

48.490

150.319

3.385

11.458

Total 556.130 165.162

Beginning of 2000s

20012002

2003

145.545298.678

430.258

11.34430.694

82.690

Total 874.481 124.728

Sutardi, Department of PU, Presentation on Climate Change, Dec 200

DROUGHT


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RESPONSE

SHIFT PRADIGM TOSUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT


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Need to develop and implement

sustainable development policies

.. in all environmental, social and economic sectors Energy Transport Forestry Agriculture Industry Technology Air, water and land resources Human health

Social services

Sustainable development improving the quality of life, would enhance the capacity to ADAPT ANDMITIGATE


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Climate changeand variability

Impacts

Responses

AdaptationMitigation

Adaptation and mitigation


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Situation in Indonesia

Adaptation: Climate change in Asia includingIndonesia is marked by increasing temperatureand generally increasing rainfall and extremeevents to mainstream adaptation strategies

into national development agenda

Mitigation: is not mandatory for developingcountries Common but differentresponsibilities


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CHALLENGES

Sectoral Challenges: Sustainable Energy Supply Efficiency (reduce energy intensity),

diversification, energy conservation and development of renewableenergy

Improving access of energy to people related to education and poverty

Reduction of air and atmospheric pollution

Sustainable Forest Management and Conservation

Sustainable Development: Good governance: transparances, cleanliness, openness,

democracy, akuntability Environment to become central issue, no longer peripheral

Cross sectoral and spatial and combination of top-down andbottom-up approaches in development

Institutional and human resource capacity development Involvement of all stakholders in decision making for strategic

development


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NATIONAL STRATEGIES (DRAFT)

MITIGATION Energy

Conservation

Fuel Switching: New andRenewable EnergyDevelopment

LULUCF

Aforestation andreforestation

Proposal of REDD (ReducingEmission from Deforestationin Developing Countries)
http://www.geothermal.marin.org/GEOpresentation/sld122.htm


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Government Policy

President Regulation No. 5/2006 on the National EnergyPolicy and President Instruction No. 1/2006 onDevelopment of Biofuel

Bioethanol

Bio-oil

Biodiesel

Natural gas

30%

Other New RE

5%

Biofuel5%

Geothermal

5%

Coal Liquefaction

2%

Coal

33%

Oil

20%


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Energy Reserves and PotentialTYPE OFFOSSIL

ENERGY

RESOURCES

RESERVES

(Proven +Possible)

PRODUCTION(per

YEAR)

RESERVES/PRODUCTION RATIO

(W/OEXPLORAT

ION)YEARS

OIL 86,9billion bbl

9,1 billionbbl

387million

bbl

23

GAS 384,7TSCF

185,8TSCF

2,95TSCF

62

COAL 57 billionton

19,3million

ton

132million

ton

146

NON FOSSILENERGY

RESOURCES

EQUIVALENT

UTILIZATION

INSTALLEDCAPACITY

HYDRO 845millionBOE

75,67 GW 6.851 GWh 4.200 MW

GEOTHERMAL 219millionBOE

27 GW 2.593,5GWh

807 MW

MINI/MICRO

HYDRO

500 MW 500 MW 84 MW

BIOMASS 49,81 GW 445 MW

SOLAR 4,80kWh/m2/day

8 MW

WIND 3-6m/second

0,6 MW

Fossil energies reserves will have been depleted in thecoming years

Renewable energies potency are abundant political will

Source: DGEEU, 2005


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ADAPTATION

Immediate Action: Reforestation at vulnerable and critical areas: i.g

upstream, critical land around water basin

Community participation;

Public education

Capacity building: human respurces, equipment

Mainstreaming climate change into national

planning development Medium and Long-term;

Spatial planning


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THANK YOU

Documents

global warming and sustainability of Indonesia