Global Synthetic Rubber Overview - Weeblyagmdownload.weebly.com/uploads/1/4/6/3/14639552/petrovic.pdf · 2017-04-17 · 4/17/2017 1 Global Synthetic Rubber Overview IISRP AGM 2017

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Global Synthetic Rubber Overview

IISRP AGM 201726 April 2017 – Taipei, Taiwan

Agenda

Topics

Global Capacity & Main Players

New Projects & Expansions

Supply & Demand

Challenges & Trends

2 Confidential

Challenges & Trends

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Agenda

Topics



Supply & Demand

Challenges & Trends

3 Confidential

Challenges & Trends


2016 G loba l Capac i ty

4 ConfidentialSource: World Rubber Statistics 2016 - IISRP

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Capac i ty Expans ions , kt



2016 Globa l Capac i ty



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Main P layers


2016 PRODUCTION CAPACITY

1,991

1,520 1,301 1,226

60

220

50

56

23 COMPANIES = 80%

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793 730 725 692 672 593 588 565 510 500 489 454 415 370 325 320 319 310 270

Source: World Rubber Statistics 2016 - IISRP

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Agenda

Topics



Supply & Demand

Challenges & Trends

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Challenges & Trends

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G loba l Capac i ty

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

BR Global Capacity and Demand, kt

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-1,000

02010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Capacity New projects/expansions Iddled Demand


BR Id led fac i l i t ies - Ch ina

Company Capacity kt/yr Idled dateFujian Fuxiang Chemical 50 Dec - 2013

Sinopec Baling Company 60 Dec - 2013

YPC – GPRO Rubber 100 Jan - 2014

PetroChina Jinzhou 50 Mar - 2014

Shandong Wanda Chemical 30 Apr - 2015

Sh d H N M t i l 100 M 2015

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Source: IISRP China

Shandong Huamao New Materials 100 Mar - 2015

Sinopec Shanghai Gaoqiao 120 Jun - 2016

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G loba l Capac i ty

ESBR Global Capacity and Demand kt

1,000

3,000

5,000

ESBR Global Capacity and Demand, kt

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-1,0002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Capacity New projects/expansions Closure Demand

Globa l Capac i ty


SSBR Global Capacity and Demand, kt

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

p y

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02010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Capacity New projects/expansions Demand

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G loba l Capac i ty

EPDM Global Capacity and Demand kt

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

EPDM Global Capacity and Demand, kt

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-500

02010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Capacity New projects/expansions Closure Demand


G loba l Capac i ty

NBR Global Capacity and Demand kt

0

250

500

750

1,000NBR Global Capacity and Demand, kt

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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


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G loba l Capac i ty

SBC's Global Capacity and Demand kt

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

SBC s Global Capacity and Demand, kt

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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019



G loba l Capac i ty

IR Global Capacity and Demand kt

0

250

500

750

1,000

IR Global Capacity and Demand, kt

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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


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G loba l Capac i ty

IIR Global Capacity and Demand kt

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

IIR Global Capacity and Demand, kt

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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


Agenda

Topics



Supply & Demand

Challenges & Trends

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Challenges & Trends

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Overcapacity ‐ confirmad facilites idled (China)

Demand Slight recovery during 2016 AP & EMEA

GLOBAL HIGHLIGHTS

EMEAAMERICAS ASIA PACIFIC

BR ‐ Polybutadiene Rubber

BR Global Es t imat ion

Supply & Demand

Demand ‐ Slight recovery during 2016 ‐ AP & EMEA

Supply 67% Operating rate ‐ Improving

Demand

GLOBAL SUPPLY & DEMAND CHINA

18% 22% 60%

61%24%15%

Imp

Exp

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Source: IISRP ChinaSource: IISRP Model

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Supply Demand Linear (Demand)

Demand

Supply

2016 2015 2014 2013

Overcapacity ‐ Asia Pacific

D d Sli ht d i 2016 A i P ifi

ESBR ‐ Styrene Butadiene Rubber (Emulsion) HIGHLIGHTS

AMERICAS EMEA ASIA PACIFIC

ESBR Global Es t imat ion

Supply & Demand

Demand ‐ Slight recovery during 2016 ‐ Asia Pacific

Supply 65% Operating rate ‐ Stagnant

Demand

17% 21% 62%

19% 18% 63%


Imp

Exp

22 ConfidentialSource: IISRP ChinaSource: IISRP Model

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


Demand

Production

2016 2015 2014 2013

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Overcapacity ‐ Asia Pacific

D d I i i ll i

SSBR ‐ Styrene Butadiene Rubber (Solution) HIGHLIGHTS


SSBR Globa l Es t imat ion

Supply & Demand

Demand: Improving in all regions

Supply 67% Operating rate ‐ Improving

Demand

30% 26% 44%

26% 32% 42%


Imp

Exp


2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


Demand

Production

2016 2015 2014 2013

Overcapacity

D d I i AP d EMEA

EPDM ‐ Ethylene‐Propylene‐Diene‐Monomer HIGHLIGHTS


EPDM Global Es t imat ion

Supply & Demand

Demand: Improving ‐ AP and EMEA

Supply 68% Operating rate

Demand

38% 24% 38%

28% 29% 44%


Imp

Exp


2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


Demand

Production

2016 2015e 2014 2013

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Demand: Sluggish ‐ Growth in AP

68% O ti t

NBR ‐ Nitrile Butadiene Rubber HIGHLIGHTS


NBR Globa l Es t imat ion

Supply & Demand

68% Operating rate

Supply

Demand

5% 32% 62%

17% 27% 56%


Imp

Exp


2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


Demand

Production

2016 2015 2014 2013

Demand: Improving in all regions

83% O ti t

SBS ‐ Styrene Butadiene Block Copolymer HIGHLIGHTS


SBS Globa l Es t imat ion

Supply & Demand

83% Operating rate

Supply

Demand

14% 15% 71%

20% 22% 58%


Imp

Exp


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


Demand

Production

2016 2015 2014 2013

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Agenda

Topics



Supply & Demand

Challenges & Trends

27 Confidential

Challenges & Trends

Cha l lenges -Overcapac i ty

Challenges

Key points•SRI 2016 global

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operating rate 70%•Overinvestment in China

•Tire elastomers have been great contributors

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Challenges

Chal lenges -Overcapac i ty

29 ConfidentialSource: ICIS Magazine March 2016.

Challenges

Chal lenges -Overcapac i ty

10,000

15,000

20,000SR Global Capacity, Supply & Demand

2016 (kton)

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-

5,000

ESBR BR SSBR EPDM NBR SBC's CR IR IIR Global

Capacity Supply Demand

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Challenges

Chal lenges -Volat i l i ty

Key pointsOil i t


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•Oil prices - extreme volatility

•BD tight supply (outages)

•SR producers increasing prices



Challenges

Chal lenges -Volat i l i ty

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Challenges

Chal lenges –NR Market Dynamics

Key points•NR overcapacity

Key points•Oil prices - extreme volatility


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•Majority of demand is driven by Tire Industry

•Enough substitution to be close price with SR

volatility•BD tight supply (outages)

•SR producers increasing prices



Trends

Trends –T i re Sector

Key points•NA and WE expecting growth during 2017 l

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(replacement)•CE, EE & Russia with solid performance on PVTires

•PVTires solid growth in ME

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Trends

Trends –T i re Sector

35 Confidential

Trends

Trends –Auto Indust r y

Key Points•SRI 2016 global

Key points• LV Assembly expecting CAGR 3%

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•Higher Capital spending of top 10 OEM’s on R&D and M&A.

• Forces transforming mobility

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Trends


37 Confidential

Source: PwC Autofacts 1Q 2017

Trends


38 Confidential

Source: Capital IQ

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Trends


39 Confidential

Source: Deloitte University Press

Trends

I ISRP- Webinars

IISRP Webinars: Recent Developments & Applications in Elastomers &

Synthetic Rubber

You are invited to register for IISRP's

"RECENT DEVELOPMENTS AND

APPLICATIONS IN ELASTOMERS AND

SYNTHETIC RUBBER" webinar

40 Confidential

Source: iisrp.com

Presented by: Dr. Walter Ramirez

Chief Innovation Officer, Founder of Innventik

Please join us on Wednesday May 10,2017 at

09:00 CST

In this Webinar, you will gain insight on:

Relevant technology activity, major drivers

and trends

Sustainability: Renewable monomers and

biobased solutions

Dr. Walter Ramirez

is Chief Innovation

Officer and Founder

of Innventik

4/17/2017

21

Closing

Conc lus ions

Global SR Consumption Forecast 2017-2021 (kt)

5 000

10,000

15,000

41 Confidential

0

5,000

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017f

2018f

2019f

2020f

2021f

Source: IISRP SR Consumption Forecast

*Includes BR, EPDM, ESBR, NBR, SBS & SSBR

Closing

Conc lus ions

• Challenging margins

• Fierce competition

42 Confidential

4/17/2017

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Closing

Questionswww.iisrp.com

roxanna@iisrp .com

3535 Briarpark Suite250Houston, TX 77042

+1 713 783 1703

43 Confidential

Documents

Global Synthetic Rubber Overview - Weeblyagmdownload.weebly.com/uploads/1/4/6/3/14639552/petrovic.pdf · 2017-04-17 · 4/17/2017 1 Global Synthetic Rubber Overview IISRP AGM 2017