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3/28/2016
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Global Populationhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010‐09‐21/u‐s‐loses‐no‐1‐to‐brazil‐china‐india‐market‐in‐global‐poll‐
on‐investing.html
http://gecon.yale.edu/
http://gecon.yale.edu/large-pixeled-contour-globe
Global Population• Currently estimated to be 6,870,100,000
• The highest growth rate observed was during the 1950s, 60s and 70s, peaking in 1963 at 2.2%
• US Census Bureau Projections show a steady decline in population growth rate
• UN projections show a rise in growth rate
US Census Bureau Total Global Population United Nations Developing vs. Developed
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The World’s most Populated City Regions
Rank Metropolitan area Country Population
1 Tokyo Japan 32,450,000
2 Seoul South Korea 20,550,000
3 Mexico City Mexico 20,450,000
4 New York City United States 19,750,000
5 Mumbai India 19,200,000
6 Jakarta Indonesia 18,900,000
7 São Paulo Brazil 18,850,000
8 Delhi India 18,600,000
9 Osaka‐Kobe‐Kyoto Japan 17,375,000
10 Shanghai People's Republic of China 16,650,000
Trends in population growth in Developing World• The world’s human population has increased nearly fourfold in the past 100 years
• Each day 200,000 more people are added to the world food demand
• It is projected to increase from 6.7 billion (2006) to 9.2 billion by 2050– It took only 12 years for the last billion to be added, a net increase of nearly 230,000 new people
each day, who will need housing, food and other natural resources
• The largest population increase is projected to occur in Asia, particularly in China, India and Southeast Asia, accounting for about 60% and more of the world’s population by 2050
• The rate of population growth, however, is still relatively high in Central America, and highest in Central and part of Western Africa.
– In relative numbers, Africa will experience the most rapid growth, over 70% faster than in Asia
– In sub‐Saharan Africa, the population is projected to increase from about 770 million to nearly 1.7 billion by 2050
UN population Division, 2007
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What is the cause of such population growth in Developing World?
• Intensified globalization• Resulting in rapid urban‐industrial capitalism
• Clustering of producers and consumers results in urban agglomeration economies
• This process leads to greater productivity and technological innovation
• Thus, resulting in a snowball effect that stimulates urban industrial expansion
• While there are many positives, the negatives spill over creating societal challenges and environmental consequences
Thomas Malthus (Malthusian Theory)• Famously predicted that the population of the Earth would steeply rise after the industrial revolution
• Authored , An Essay on the Principle of Population • Several editions from 1798 – 1826
• Theory states that Population grows geometrically (1, 2, 4, 8…) while food supply grows arithmetically (1 ,2 ,3, 4 ,5…)
• Suggested that as population grew faster than food supply, ‘checks’ on population must occur
• War, disease, famine
• Said the fertility of the poor put pressure on industrial capitalism
• Anti‐Capitalist critics argued it was not the poor who were pressuring production, it was the increased rate of production that was pressuring the poor!
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World Population Distribution Stats:• Uneven population distribution uneven population density• World is increasingly urbanizing
• 50% of the world’s population lives in cities• Europe and South America are two of the most urbanized regions with close to 80% urbanized
• 90% of all people live north of the Equator• 60% live between 20° and 60° North (Temperate Climate)• 50% of the world’s population live on just 5% of its land area
• Almost 90% of the population live on less than 20% of its land area
• People favor lowland areas over high altitude areas• 80% live below 500 meters above sea level
• Coastal areas have the densest settlement• 60% of the world’s population lives within 100 km of the ocean
http://www.radicalcartography.net/
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http://www.radicalcartography.net/
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Where is the world’s population?• Roughly 88 percent of the world’s population lives in the Northern Hemisphere, with about half north of 27 degrees north
• Taking the northern and southern hemispheres together, on average the world’s population lives 24 degrees from the equator
Bill Ra
nkin
CIA Factbook (2001)
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Inter‐Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) World MapThe ITCZ is the area encircling the earth near the equator where winds originating
in the northern and southern hemispheres come together
What is the cause of such population growth in Developing World?
• Intensified globalization• Resulting in rapid urban‐industrial capitalism
• Clustering of producers and consumers results in urban agglomeration economies
• This process leads to greater productivity and technological innovation
• Thus, resulting in a snowball effect that stimulates urban industrial expansion
• While there are many positives, the negatives spill over creating societal challenges and environmental consequences
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Population Pyramids
• A population pyramid is a graphical illustration that shows the distribution of various age groups in a population
• also called age‐sex pyramid
• It typically represents a country or region of the world, and normally forms the shape of a pyramid
Males Females
Three general kinds of Population Pyramids
1. Stationary2. Expansive3. Constrictive
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Expansive Pyramid
• A steady upwards narrowing shows that more people die at each higher age band
• This type of pyramid indicates a population in which there is a:
• high birth rate• high death rate• short life expectancy
• This is the pattern of a economically developing country
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Stationary Pyramid
• A population pyramid showing an unchanging pattern of fertility and mortality
Constrictive Pyramid
• A population pyramid showing lower numbers or percentages of younger people
• The country will have a graying population which means that people are generally older
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Changes in Population ‐ Japan
Population Distribution of Latin America
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Rural‐to‐Urban Migration in Latin America
Demographic Transition Model (DTM)
• A general rule‐of‐thumb that identifies periods of development with population characteristics
• The DTM is based on variations in • Crude birthrates – the annual number of live births per 1000 population • Crude death rates – the annual number of deaths per 1000 population
• Five Phases identified:• Phase 1 – High births, high deaths• Phase 2 – High births, declining deaths• Phase 3 – Declining births, Low deaths• Phase 4 – Low births and low deaths• Phase 5 – Deaths higher than births
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Characteristics of DTM Phases:
• Phase 1 –High births, high deaths• Pre‐industrial economy
• Phase 2 –High Births – Declining Deaths• Developing Country• Improving food and water supply • Improving Sanitation• Improvements in farming technology• Improvements in education• Results in a large population increase
Many Latin American countriescurrently in this phase, including;
• Bolivia• Peru• Paraguay• Guatemala
No Latin American country is in this phase today – all have passed through this phase
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Characteristics of DTM Phases:• Phase 3 –
Declining Births – Low Deaths• Contraception• Wage increases• Urbanization• Reduction of subsistence agriculture• Increase in status and education of women
• Reduced child labor• Increase in parental investment in children
• Population growth begins to level off
Brazil and Mexico in this phase
• Phase 4 –Low births and low deaths• Stabilization of population• Idealized end point
Uruguay, Cuba in this phase, Chile and Argentina approaching
• Phase 5 –Deaths higher than births• Shrinking population• Threat to Industrial Societies• Norm in post‐Industrial/deindustrialized societies
• Mitigated through immigrationNo Latin American country in this phase
Phase 3 Line Graph
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Phase 4 Line Graph
Phase 1 – High births, high deaths
Phase 2 – High births, declining deaths
Phase 3 – Declining births, Low deaths
Phase 4 – Low births and low deaths
Phase 5 – Deaths higher than births
Mexico is emerging out of Phase 2 and into Phase 3
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Population Pyramids ‐Mexico
Notice top age is 80+ years
Population Pyramids
Notice top age is 75+ years Notice top age is 100+ years
All of Latin America Mexico
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Population Density• Population Density – is the number of people living per geographic unit (i.e., per square mile or per square kilometer)Examples:
“Urbanized Areas” of the USA
http://en.wikipedia.org
“Urban Areas”For the 2010 census, the Census Bureau redefined the classification of urban areas to "a densely settled core of census tracts and/or census blocks that meet minimum population density requirements, along with adjacent territory containing non‐residential urban land uses as well as territory with low population density included to link outlying densely settled territory with the densely settled core. To qualify as an urban area, the territory identified according to criteria must encompass at least 2,500 people, at least 1,500 of which reside outside institutional group quarters."
Urban Areas of the United States of America[1]
Rank Name[Note 1] Population(2010 Census)Land Area(km²)
Land Area(sq mi)
Density(Population / km²)
Density(Population / sq mi)
1 New York‐‐Newark, NY—NJ—CT 18,351,295 8,936.0 3,450.2 2,053.6 5,318.9
2 Los Angeles‐‐Long Beach‐‐Anaheim, CA 12,150,996 4,496.3 1,736.0 2,702.5 6,999.3
3 Chicago, IL—IN 8,608,208 6,326.7 2,442.8 1,360.6 3,524.04 Miami, FL 5,502,379 3,208.0 1,238.6 1,715.2 4,442.4
5 Philadelphia, PA—NJ—DE—MD 5,441,567 5,131.7 1,981.4 1,060.4 2,746.4
6 Dallas‐‐Fort Worth‐‐Arlington, TX 5,121,892 4,607.9 1,779.1 1,111.5 2,878.97 Houston, TX 4,944,332 4,299.4 1,660.0 1,150.0 2,978.58 Washington, DC—VA—MD 4,586,770 3,423.3 1,321.7 1,339.9 3,470.39 Atlanta, GA 4,515,419 6,851.4 2,645.4 659.0 1,706.910 Boston, MA—NH—RI 4,181,019 4,852.2 1,873.5 861.7 2,231.711 Detroit, MI 3,734,090 3,463.2 1,337.2 1,078.2 2,792.512 Phoenix‐‐Mesa, AZ 3,629,114 2,969.6 1,146.6 1,222.1 3,165.213 San Francisco‐‐Oakland, CA 3,281,212 1,356.2 523.6 2,419.5 6,266.414 Seattle, WA 3,059,393 2,616.7 1,010.3 1,169.2 3,028.215 San Diego, CA 2,956,746 1,896.9 732.4 1,558.7 4,037.0
16 Minneapolis‐‐St. Paul, MN—WI 2,650,890 2,646.5 1,021.8 1,001.7 2,594.3
17 Tampa‐‐St. Petersburg, FL 2,441,770 2,478.6 957.0 985.1 2,551.518 Denver‐‐Aurora, CO 2,374,203 1,730.0 668.0 1,372.4 3,554.419 Baltimore, MD 2,203,663 1,857.1 717.0 1,186.6 3,073.320 St. Louis, MO—IL 2,150,706 2,392.2 923.6 899.0 2,328.527 Pittsburgh, PA 1,733,853 2,344.4 905.2 739.6 1,915.5
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http://www.newgeography.com
• The least dense urban areas with more than 2.5 million population are all in the United States.
• The least dense is Atlanta, with 1800 people per square mile or 700 per square kilometer.
• The second least dense is, perhaps surprisingly, Boston, despite its reputation for high density.
• Boston's population density is 2200 per square mile or 800 per square kilometer.
• Also, perhaps surprisingly, Philadelphia is the least dense urban area in the world with more than 5 million population, while Chicago is the least dense urban area of more than 7.5 million.
http://www.newgeography.com
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Global Population Densities
http
://w
ww
.pop
ulat
ionl
abs.
com
Primate City (a result of rapid urbanization)
• A primate city is the major city of a country, serving as the financial, political, and population center and is not rivaled in by any other city in that country
• In general, a primate city must be at least twice as populous as the second largest city in the country
• The presence of a primate city in a country usually indicates an imbalance in development
• An expanding core• A stagnant periphery
Some Primate Cities of Latin America include:
Central America:•Mexico City, Mexico•Guatemala City, Guatemala•Havana, Cuba•Managua, Nicaragua•Panama City, Panama•Port‐au‐Prince, Haiti•San José, Costa Rica•San Salvador, El Salvador•Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
South America:•Buenos Aires, Argentina•Caracas, Venezuela•Lima, Peru•Montevideo, Uruguay•Santiago, Chile
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Deriving information from Population Statistics
• Population pyramids and the DTM informs us about the basic structure of a place’s population, and about the basic trends of a place’s stage of development transition
• But we want to know more about the quality of life of the populations of places
• Things such as:• What are the levels of poverty? • What is the wealth distribution of a population?• What is the urban / rural distribution of a population?• What are the living conditions like for urban populations? (or rural populations)• What is the quality of the built‐environment ?
GINI Coefficients• The GINI Coefficient is a useful metric for understanding the state of cities (or countries) with regard to
distribution of income or consumption
• It is the most widely used measure to determine the extent to which the distribution of income (or consumption) among individuals (or households) deviates from a ‘perfectly equal distribution’
• Equal Distribution (of income) meaning every individual has an equal amount of income• Not going to happen, correct? But it does give us an indicator as to how the income in a place is distributed
throughout the population – and that is useful!
• The data used here is supplied by the United Nations and is collected from national surveys and censuses (which will each have a different level of accuracy)
• Most GINI coefficients are usually compiled for a region or country
• GINI coefficients for cities are a relatively new way using data to look a the income distribution of cities
• The GINI Coefficient is named after Corrado Gini, an Italian economist who published it in 1912
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GINI Coefficients
• The GINI coefficient is derived from a statistical formula and expresses the degree of evenness or unevenness of any set of numbers as a number between 0 and 1
• based on the Lorenz curve which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x% of the population
• A Gini Coefficient of 0 would indicate equal income for all earners
• A Gini Coefficient of 1 would mean that one person had all the income and nobody else had any
• So… lower Gini Coefficients indicate more equitable distribution of wealth in a society, while higher Gini Coefficients mean that wealth is concentrated in the hands of fewer people
• Sometimes the Gini Coefficient is multiplied by 100 and expressed as a percentage between 0 and 100. This is called the "Gini Index"
What do the ‘coefficients’ mean?The table below provides a general guide that is used to identify possible causes and consequences associated
with different GINI coefficient values
UN‐Habitat, ‘State of the World’s Cities 2008/2009. 2010
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GINI Index – Income Disparity since WWIINotice the USA has an increasing GINI index (meaning income disparity is growing), and that the USA’s
GINI coefficient is much closer to that of Mexico than that of Canada
www.wikipedia.com
, usin
g World Bank data
Alertline
Urban and Rural GINI Coefficients for select developing countries
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Urban and Rural GINI Coefficients for select developing countries
UN‐Habitat, 2009
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LATIN AMERICA
Income Inequality GINI coefficients for selected cities:
ASIA AFRICA
The red line represents 0.4 on the GINI coefficient scale
UN‐Habitat, 2009
Urban Inequalities in Latin America & Caribbean
UN‐Habitat, 2009
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Latin American Urban Populations• Brazil and Mexico together are home to ~54% of the region’s urban population
• In Brazil, 34 percent of households are classified as ‘slums’• Of these, 12% lack improved sanitation for wastewater
• The highest proportion of slums in Latin America can be found in Haiti, Guatemala, Nicaragua (C.A.), and Bolivia (S.A.)
• In most of Latin America, access to improved water and improvedsanitation for wastewater is more common than in other parts of the developing world
UN‐Habitat, 2009
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UN‐Habitat, 2009
UN‐Habitat, 2009
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Latin American Urban PopulationsLatin America and the Caribbean have almost completed its urban transition
Urbanization rates are stabilizing and slum growth rates are slowing
Age‐sex pyramids for slum, non‐slum and rural populations in Brazil
UN‐Habitat, 2009
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SLUMSand urban inequalities
How is a ‘Slum’ defined?• Our text book uses indicators of deprivation based on five conditions:
1. Poor access to improved water2. Poor access to sanitation3. Non – durable housing4. Insufficient living area, and5. Insecure tenure (lack of ownership)
• It is important to remember that even if it is defined as a ‘slum’, it is a community for the people living there…
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Origin of the word, ‘slum’• The word ‘slum’ appeared in London at the beginning of the 19thc, designating, initially, “a room of low repute”
• At the end of the 19thc, the word appears in the Oxford English Dictionary:
• The contemporary use of the word ‘slum’ is often inter‐changed with ‘shanties’, as in ‘shanty‐towns’
• Shanty‐towns are spontaneous settlements that develop in outskirts of towns
• While officially different, ‘shanties’ are now considered by some as a type of slum
“A street, alley, court, etc., situated in a crowded district of a town orcity and inhabited by poor people or a low class or by the very poor;a number of these streets or courts forming a thickly populatedneighborhood or district where the housed and the conditions of lifeare of a squalid and wretched character”
How is a ‘Slum’ defined?• The term ‘slum’ has loosely been used in the West when referring to housing areas that were once affluent, but have deteriorated
• This is not the same as the definition of ‘slum’ in the non‐western world• Non‐western urban slums are not simply parallel to ‘poor areas’
• Contemporary slums of the non‐western world are informal settlements where newcomers to the city can find:
• affordable shelter• enclaves of local culture, and • support from a social network
• The United Nations (author of our text book) and many at the World Bank argue that slums should be eradicated
• Is that a solution? Is it achievable? Who would this serve most?
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How is a ‘Slum’ defined?• Despite the few positives a slum may provide for rural newcomers to the city, slums are characterized by many negatives, such as:
• Poverty• Illiteracy• Unemployment (official, taxable employment)• Informal economies• Crime• Drug proliferation• Disease• ‘Waste’ collection• Absence of disaster response and relief
• (fire, police, earth‐moving, etc.)
• Alternatively, it can be argued that these types of urban settlements represent the ultimate in the free‐movement of people, thus representing true democracy
• And that those cities that try to demolish them are totalitarian
What is the best course of action to address these types of settlements?
• Sub‐Saharan Africa (62.2%) followed by South Asia (42.9) rank the highest in the proportion of urban populations living in slums
• Latin America (27%) is much lower and we can relate this to the region’s demographic transition (as seen in the DTM)
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Rio de Janiero, Brazil
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Planning as a response to slums
• Understanding the function in concept, and geography of slums in context is necessary
• Urban Planning techniques include;• Monitoring and predicting of the expansion• Improvement of existing facilities• Disaster prevention• Environmental resource management• And, if absolutely necessary, relocation of residents to formal housing
• A crucial requirement for effective Urban Planning is to have access to accurate and updated spatial data