global perspective on social-economic transformation

by gabor karsai

two parallel worlds

polarisation (two sides of globalisation)• climate change, economic crisis, increasing

gap between rich and poor, loss of meaningvs • social networking, travel, cultural experience,

meeting people, rise of the middle classuncertainty about the future

megatrends

• globalisation & deregulation• urbanisation & migration• climate change & sustainability• population & lifespan growth• localisation & re-regulation

other ideas to watch• avatar assistants• biomimicry• clean coal• comfort eating• contextual deficit• diminishing use of email• decline of voice communication• electrification of transport• facial recognition on mobile phones• gene hacking• holographic telepresence• increasing complexity• local living

• mobile money• peak water• peer-to-peer landing/giving• quantum computing• reverse migration• self-tracking• smart infrastructure• slow education• shift from products to

experiences• ultra-efficient solar• value redefinition• voluntary simplicity

european strategy and policy analysis system (espas)

greater uncertainties but broader opportunities in the next two decades

• an age of convergence vs conflicting nationalisms

• an age of scarcity vs human development• an age of multilateralism vs fragmentation

the empowerment of individuals

• a global human community but a growing expectations gap

• converging values and demands but risks of extremism

• demands for political participation but dangers of populism

greater human development but inequality, climate change and scarcity

• greater stress on sustainable development against a backdrop of greater resource scarcity and persistent poverty, compounded by the consequences of climate change

• a rising middle class but persistent poverty and inequality

• climate change and scarcities: challenges to human development

• human security: protecting citizens

a polycentric world but a growing governance gap

• emergence of a more polycentric world characterised by a shift of power away from states

• a power shift to asia but greater uncertainty• diffusion of power but dangers of fragmentation• global initiatives but a governance gap• growing governance gaps as the mechanisms for

inter-state relations fail to respond adequately to global public demands

transformation

• scenarios (rudy lohmeyer): - global collapse- management takeover (china, corporations)- transformation (social, economic, cultural, mental

etc.) into global participatory governance+ crunch-crunch

• change, transformation vs revolution• r-evolution

why do not we act to avoid collapse?

daniel gilbert (psychologist at harvard): how we respond to threats (terrorism vs climate change; child molesters vs obesity)

- intentional- immoral- imminent- instantaneous

conditions of transformation

• identity and energy• gap between imaginary and real• fears vs hopes (fear vs love)

conditions of transformation

identity and energy• question of identity: who are we?- humans are gods (gods are humans)- humans are machines (machines are humans)- humans are animals (animals are humans)- humans are systems (systems are humans)- humans are cooperators (ants, termites, bees)- humans are e.t.’s (e.t.’s are humans)

clash of identities• man• husband• father• car-driver• hungarian• director• vegetarian• TV-watcher• thinker• tourist• iPad user• etc.• human

• where lies the boundary of our identity?

• shall I be more or less?• more means tendency

of exclusivism • less means giving space

to the other

conditions of transformation

tension between imaginary and real • lack of alignment between- thoughts and actions- beliefs and behaviours- theories and practices

• become practitioners• how to get ignited?

new paradigm

metaphysically• we are in this together: us vs me; collective vs

individual• individualism vs communism vs ?• „individual in community”• interrelations not atomic substances• each entity is unique but interrelated

new paradigm

historically & evolutionarily• where lies the power of sovereignty?- from tribe to clan- from clan to people- from people to nation- from nation to international community- from international community to one humanity• us vs them

new paradigm

politically• end of blocks• daniel bell: liberal in politics (liberty), socialist in

economy (equality), conservative in culture (fraternity)

• barrett values centre: „beliefs divide, values unite”

• new institutions are needed• new leadership paradigm

beliefs divide, values unite

• caring• family• humor/ fun• honesty• friendship• responsibility• compassion• respect• accountability• positive attitude

• family• caring• honesty• responsibility• humor/ fun• accountability• respect• positive attitude• integrity• friendship

what is the difference?

security, prosperity, peace

vs

peace, prosperity, security

new paradigm

economically• sustainability• good economy or new economy• change the fundamentals: human behaviour• takers vs leavers• „economics of enough”• „economics of abundance”• „small is beautiful”• beyond the three sectors: public (government), private

(business), social (ngo’s)

examples

• ashoka innovators for the public (drayton)• b corps (houlahan, gilbert)• bpeace (businesses for peace)• business as an agent of world benefit (bawb)• conscious capitalism (sisodia, mackey)• plan b (branson)

new paradigm

mentally & spiritually• institutions are created by and composed of

people• new institutions mean „new people”• inside-out approach• aligned values and behaviours, authenticity• participation• action- and solution-oriented approach

a new world is emerging

• can humans be like bees, ants and termites?• „think globally, act locally” („glocal”)• marc gafni, author: think locally, act locally• do your part, the rest will be taken care of• but do your part

• „when i change, the whole world changes”

• expansion of love and compassion