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Christian Scherer
Chief Commercial Officer
Head of Airbus International
Global Market Forecast
Cities,
Airports
& Aircraft2019-2038
2018 was a good year and 2019 looks to be another solid year
Note: IATA forecast as of June 2019
Source: ICAO, IATA, IHS Markit, Airbus GMF 2019
7.4%RPK growth
5.0%RPK growth
2018 2019
3.2%GDP growth
2.7%GDP growth
+280million passengers
+200million passengers
81.9%Record Load factor
82.1%Record Load factor
9th
year of solid
airline profitability
10th
year of solid airline profitability
2
-150
0
150
300
450
600
750
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Billi
on
s
10 years of strong growth and solid profitability
3
World annual added traffic (billion RPKs)
* IATA Forecast, June 2019
Source: ICAO, Airbus GMF 2019
9/11Oil
CrisisGulf Crisis
Asian Crisis
SARSFinancial
Crisis
+600 billion
RPKs
20192018
$292 bnprofit
$269 bnProfit*
4 Source: UN Population, Oxford Economics, Airbus GMF 2019
Drivers for Growth
Urbanisation- 2000:
47%of World population in urban areas
- 2018:
55%
Wealth- 2000:
~900 millionemerging countries Middle-Class
- 2018:
2.7 billion
Liberalisation- On average
700 net routesadded each year since 2000
Air transport becoming more balanced and resilient
5 Source: Airbus GMF 2019
Origin & Destination traffic from/to each city
2018
Air transport becoming more balanced and resilient
6 Source: Airbus GMF 2019
Origin & Destination traffic from/to each city
2038
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
0 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500 1,750 2,000 2,250 2,500
Billions
x3.2
2018
2038
x4.8
x3.3
x4.0
x3.4
x3.7
x3.3
x3.8
Traffic is forecast to grow at 4.3% p.a.
Source: Airbus GMF 2019
Domestic PRC
Domestic USA
Intra - Western Europe
Western Europe - USA
Western Europe - Middle East
Domestic - Asia Emerging
Domestic - India
Central Europe - Western Europe
Asia Developed - Asia Emerging
Indian Sub-continent - Middle East
Asia Emerging - PRC
Asia Emerging - Middle East
Asia Developed - Western Europe
Asia Developed - USA
PRC - USA
Asia Developed - PRC
Western Europe - South America
Intra - Asia Developed
Western Europe - PRC
Intra - Middle-East
Top 20 traffic flows (RPK)
RPKs (billion)
7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
0 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500 1,750 2,000 2,250 2,500
Billions
x3.2
2018
2038
x1.5
x4.8
x3.3
x4.0
x3.4
x3.7
x3.3
x1.6
x1.7
x3.8
Traffic is forecast to grow at 4.3% p.a.
Source: Airbus GMF 2019
Domestic PRC
Domestic USA
Intra - Western Europe
Western Europe - USA
Western Europe - Middle East
Domestic - Asia Emerging
Domestic - India
Central Europe - Western Europe
Asia Developed - Asia Emerging
Indian Sub-continent - Middle East
Asia Emerging - PRC
Asia Emerging - Middle East
Asia Developed - Western Europe
Asia Developed - USA
PRC - USA
Asia Developed - PRC
Western Europe - South America
Intra - Asia Developed
Western Europe - PRC
Intra - Middle-East
Top 20 traffic flows (RPK)
RPKs (billion)
8
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
9
Created
Net new city-pairs
Dropped
Source: OAG, Airbus GMF 2019, aircraft ≥100seats
Nb. of city-pairs
Networks are growing with more net new routes created
The air transport industry has delivered strong improvements in productivity
10 Source: IATA, ICAO, Cirium, OAG, Airbus GMF 2019
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
2018
1998
0 50 100 150 200
2018
1998
0% 50% 100%
2018
1998
0 100 200 300 400
2018
1998
+2 hours/day
Daily
Utilisation
+18 seats/flight
Average
Seats per
Flight
+13pp Load
Factor
160
178
69%
82%
+40%RPK (m)
per a/c
300m
415m
8.4
10.7
Improved efficiency has delivered continuous fuel burn and CO2 reduction
11
Fuel consumption & CO2 emissions
Base 100 in 1990 based on Kilograms per RPK (avg.)
Source: IATA, ICAO, Airbus GMF 2019
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
-53%2018 vs. 1990
Demand for ~39,200 new aircraft deliveries by 2038
Source: Airbus GMF 2019
Airbus GMF18 Airbus GMF19
Gross Domestic Product 20-year CAGR
2.8% 2.8%
Passenger Traffic20-year CAGR
4.4% 4.3%
Freight Traffic20-year CAGR
3.7% 3.6%
Start fleet(Passenger & Freighter)
21,450 22,680
End fleet(Passenger & Freighter)
47,990 47,680
New Deliveries(Passenger & Freighter)
37,390 39,210
12
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
Beginning 2019 2038 New Deliveries
36% of new deliveries for replacement, 64% for growth
13
Notes: Passenger aircraft (≥100seats), Freighters (>10t) | Rounded figures to nearest 10
Source: Airbus GMF 2019
Number of aircraft
22,680
47,680
Stay
Replace
Grow
New deliveries39,210
25,000
14,210
8,470
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
SMALL10t < payload < 40t
MEDIUM40t < payload < 80t
LARGEpayload > 80t
New Build
Conversion
Demand for some 850 new build freighter aircraft in the next 20 years
14
Notes: Jet aircraft (>10ton)
Source: Airbus 2019
World 20-year freighter demand, by aircraft category [2019-2038]
500
350
Global demand for 39,210 new passenger & freighter aircraft
29,720 aircraft
76% share of total new del.
5,370 aircraft
14% share of total new del.
4,120 aircraft
10% share of total new del
Note: demand for all commercial aircraft above 100 seats & freighters above 10t
Source: Airbus GMF 2019
15
Our products & their core market segments
16
Unbeatable fuel efficiencyAircraft category
Versatility on short- to
medium-haul operations
Superior single-
aisle comfort
Step-change economics
vs competitors
17
Profitable partnershipAircraft category
All-NEO design: new
engines, Airspace cabin
40 airlines already flying
both Families on the
same routes
Up to 30% better cost
per seat vs previous
generation18
The all-new design widebodyAircraft category
Only all-new large
widebody
Outstanding
EIS>8,000 nm
range
45t lower TOW
vs competitor
19
Source: Airbus GMF 2019
Summary
Strong & Resilient passenger traffic growth
Middle-class to increase by 50% by 2038
Air traffic (RPK) forecast to growth 4.3% p.a.
39,210 new deliveries by 2038
38,360 passenger aircraft
850 freighters
~36% of deliveries for replacement
~64% for growth
76% Small (29,720 units)
14% Medium (5,370 units)
10% Large (4,120 units)
20