Global Hegemony in Dispute

Carlos Alonso BedoyaEurodad-Glopolis Conference

June 2013

Signs of Multipolarity in the 21st Century

• The first decade of the 21st century showed a world moving towards multipolarity.

• The BRICS countries emerged as strong regional powers that came together in the face of the G8.

• With the crisis that exploded in 2007/2008, the G8 yielded power to the BRICS countries and other emerging powers to decide the route of global recuperation (G20).

• The FTAA was defeated.• Spaces such as ASEAN and UNASUR were

consolidated.

G1 resists losing hegemony• However, when interests are at play, the

interested party acts.• The G1 (United States) through a strategy of

bilateral trade agreements has managed to divide Latin America in two parts. The Pacific Alliance consolidated this process.

• This strategy is projected at a global level through the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Trans-Atlantic Partnership (TAP). These two agreements would guarantee an area for the validity of the US dollar as a currency for exchange and reserve.

G1 and friends (G7) on the counterattack

• With the addition of Japan and possibly South Korea to the TPP, the trilateral agreement between China- Japan and Korea is put in question, and the economic partnership in the framework of expanded ASEAN.

• With the start of the TAP negotiations, in tandem with the culmination of the TPP, the G7 countries would control more than 50% of the investments flows and global trade.

The BRICS countries respond

• China and Brazil established a mechanism to not trade in dollars.

• Russia in the G20 proposes a reform to the financial system

• The BRICS countries launch there own WB and IMF proposals.

• However, the BRICS countries are not sufficiently coordinated.

Conclusions

• The shift towards multipolarity with regional powers that have their own voices is no longer certain.

• It is not farfetched to think that the world instead is heading to bipolarity in which one of the poles (the recharged G7 with the TPP and TAP) will be more cohesive and better positioned.

• Aspects such as a new international architecture put this scenario at risk.