GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS - Dallasfed.org/media/documents/institute/global.pdf · Chart 6. Volume of World Merchandise Trade Index, 2000 = 100 NOTE: This series includes data from

Globalization InstituteFederal Reserve Bank of Dallas

GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS

Updated May 2020

http://www.dallasfed.org/institute

Table of Contents1. Indicators of Real Activity

Chart 1. Global GDP GrowthChart 2. OECD Industrial ProductionChart 3. Global Purchasing Managers Index Chart 4. Unemployment in Major Advanced EconomiesChart 5. Unemployment in OECD EconomiesChart 6. Volume of World Merchandise TradeChart 7. Volume of World Merchandise TradeChart 8. Baltic Dry Index

2. Inflation IndicatorsChart 9. Commodity PricesChart 10. Inflation in OECD Economies (CPI)Chart 11. Global Inflation (Headline CPI)Chart 12. Inflation in Major Advanced Economies (Headline CPI)Chart 13. Inflation in Major Emerging Economies (Headline CPI)

3. Money and Capital MarketsChart 14. Money Market SpreadsChart 15. 10-Year Government Bond Yields in Major Advanced EconomiesChart 16. Stock Market Indexes in Major Advanced EconomiesChart 17. Stock Market Indexes in Major Emerging Economies

4. Public FinancesChart 18. General Government Net Lending/Borrowing in Major Advanced EconomiesChart 19. General Government Net Lending/Borrowing in Major Emerging EconomiesChart 20. General Government Gross Debt in Major Advanced Economies

Economies

5. Monetary PolicyChart 22. Central Bank Policy Rates in Major Advanced

EconomiesChart 23. Central Bank Policy Rates in Major Emerging

EconomiesChart 24. Money Supply Growth in Major Advanced EconomiesChart 25. Money Supply Growth in Major Emerging Economies

6. U.S. External AccountsChart 26. U.S. Terms of TradeChart 27. U.S. Nominal Trade Balance, Customs ValueChart 28. U.S. Current Account BalanceChart 29. Nominal Value of the U.S. DollarChart 30. Real Value of the U.S. Dollar

7. Current AnalysisChart 31. Global Current Account BalancesChart 32. Bond Spreads for Select Euro Area EconomiesChart 33. Select Economies’ Banking Exposure to Peripheral Euro-Area Sovereign DebtChart 34. Sovereign Debt Repayment Schedule for Select Euro-Area Economies

Indicators of Real Activity



Sources: National Statistical Offices, International Monetary Fund; Haver Analytics Globalization Institute

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

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2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Chart 1. Global GDP Growth

World (2019 Q4 = 3.1)

Advanced Economies (ex. U.S.) (2019 Q4 = 0.9)

Emerging Economies (2019 Q4 = 4.6)

U.S. (2019 Q4 = 2.3)

Percent, Year/Year

NOTE: The advanced economies (ex. U.S.) aggregate includes the Euro Area, Japan, the U.K., Canada, Australia, South Korea, Switzerland and Sweden. The emerging economies aggregate includes China, Brazil, Russia, India, Mexico, Indonesia, Turkey, Argentina, South Africa and Colombia. The world aggregate includes these countries, which make up approximately 80 percent of world GDP computed using purchasing power parity (PPP)-adjusted GDP weights.


Sources: OECD; Haver Analytics Globalization Institute


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105

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115

120

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Index, 2005 = 100

Chart 2. OECD Industrial Production

NOTE: Countries included in the industrial production index are all members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, or OECD (Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom and United States).

Last Observation: Jan = 113.2


Globalization InstituteFederal Reserve Bank of DallasSources: JPMorgan; Bloomberg

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2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Index

Chart 3. Global Purchasing Managers Index

Manufacturing (Apr = 39.8)Services (Mar = 37.0)Composite (Mar = 39.4)

NOTE: This index measures purchasing managers' perspectives of current business conditions. An index value greater than 50 indicates economic expansion from the previous month, while a value below 50 indicates contraction.


Sources: National Statistical Offices, EUROSTAT; Haver Analytics Globalization Institute


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2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Percent

U.S. (Mar = 4.4)Euro Area (Mar = 7.4)Japan (Mar = 2.5)U.K. (Jan = 3.8)Canada (Mar = 7.8)

Chart 4. Unemployment in Major Advanced Economies

NOTE: The chart plots harmonized unemployment data for the U.K.




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2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Percent

Chart 5. Unemployment in OECD Economies

Last Observation: Feb = 5.1


Sources: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis; Haver AnalyticsGlobalization Institute


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1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Chart 6. Volume of World Merchandise TradeIndex, 2000 = 100

NOTE: This series includes data from 23 industrialized and 60 emerging market economies and covers approximately 97 percent of total world trade. Trade volume is calculated as the arithmetic average of world export volumes and world import volumes.

Last Observation: Feb = 179.8


Sources: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis; Haver AnalyticsGlobalization Institute


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'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20

Chart 7. Volume of World Merchandise Trade

World (Feb = 177.2)Advanced Economies (Feb = 143.6)Emerging Economies (Feb = 269.0)

'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20

World (Feb = 182.5)Advanced Economies (Feb = 154.3)Emerging Economies (Feb = 239.9)

Index, 2000 = 100

NOTE: Import and export series include data from 23 industrialized and 60 emerging market economies and cover approximately 97 percent of total world trade.

Imports Exports


Sources: Baltic Exchange; BloombergGlobalization Institute


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2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Chart 8. Baltic Dry IndexIndex, 01/04/1985 = 1,000

NOTE: The Baltic Dry Index is a maritime shipping index that measures charter rates for shipping dry bulk commodities such as coal, grain and iron ore.

Last Observation: May 06 = 465


Inflation Indicators



Sources: Goldman Sachs; Haver Analytics Globalization Institute


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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Chart 9. Commodity Prices

Precious Metals (May 05 = 246.0)Agriculture and Livestock (May 05 = 97.3)Energy (May 05 = 46.1)Industrial Metals (May 05 = 61.7)

Index, Jan. 2007 = 100




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2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Percent, Year/Year

Chart 10. Inflation in OECD Economies (CPI)

Headline Inflation (Mar = 1.7)Core Inflation (Mar = 2.1)

NOTE: The headline consumer price index (CPI) is the broadest measure of price changes consumers face in their day-to-day living expenses. The core CPI excludes energy and food prices.


Sources: International Monetary Fund; Haver Analytics Globalization Institute


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2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Percent, Year/Year

Chart 11. Global Inflation (Headline CPI)

World (Dec = 4.9)Advanced Economies (Dec = 1.6)Emerging Economies (Dec = 6.9)


Sources: National Statistical Offices, European Central Bank; Haver Analytics Globalization Institute


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2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Chart 12. Inflation in Major Advanced Economies (Headline CPI)

U.S. (Mar = 1.5)Euro Area (Apr = 0.4)Japan (Mar = 0.4)U.K. (Mar = 1.5)Canada (Mar = 0.8)

Percent, Year/Year


Sources: National Statistical Offices; Haver Analytics Globalization Institute


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2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Percent, Year/Year

Chart 13. Inflation in Major Emerging Economies (Headline CPI)

Brazil (Mar = 3.3)Russia (Mar = 2.5)India (Mar = 5.5)Indonesia (Apr = 2.7)China (Mar = 4.3)South Africa (Mar = 4.1)


Money and Capital Markets



Sources: Bloomberg, Haver Analytics Globalization Institute


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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Chart 14. Money Market Spreads

U.S. Dollar (May 05 = 43.4)Euro (May 05 = 18.2)Japanese Yen (May 05 = 4.3)U.K. Pound Sterling (May 05 = 40)

Basis Points

NOTE: The chart plots the spread, or difference, between 3-month interbank offered rates (Libor for the dollar, yen and pound sterling; Euribor for the euro) and the overnight index swap rate for each currency.


Sources: Financial Times, Reuters, Bank of Canada; Haver Analytics Globalization Institute


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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Chart 15. 10-Year Government Bond Yieldsin Major Advanced Economies

U.S. (Dec 02 = 1.8)Euro Area (May 05 = -0.6)Japan (Dec 30 = 0.0)U.K. (Dec 30 = 0.7)Canada (May 05 = 0.6)

Percent


Sources: Financial Times, Wall Street Journal; Haver Analytics Globalization Institute


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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Chart 16. Stock Market Indexes in Major Advanced Economies

U.S. (May 05 = 192)Euro Area (May 05 = 70)Japan (May 01 = 114)U.K. (May 05 = 94)Canada (May 05 = 119)

Index, Jan. 2007 = 100

NOTE: Stock market indexes are the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index for the U.S, the EURO STOXX 50 Price Index for the Euro Area, the Nikkei 225 Average Index for Japan, the FTSE 100 Index for the U.K. and the S&P/TSX Composite Index


Sources: Financial Times, Wall Street Journal; Haver Analytics Globalization Institute


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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Chart 17. Stock Market Indexesin Major Emerging EconomiesBrazil (May 05 = 189) Russia (May 05 = 63)India (May 06 = 234) Indonesia (May 06 = 259)China (May 06 = 101) South Africa (May 05 = 203)

Index, Jan. 2007 = 100

NOTE: Stock market indexes are the Bovespa Index for Brazil, the RTS Index for Russia, the Bombay SENSEX for India, the Jakarta Composite for Indonesia, the New Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index for China and the Johannesburg Stock Exchange Top 40 Index for South Africa.


Public Finances



Globalization InstituteFederal Reserve Bank of DallasSources: International Monetary Fund; Haver Analytics

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2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Chart 18. General Government Net Lending/Borrowing

U.S. (2019 = -5.8)Euro Area (2019 = -0.7)Japan (2019 = -2.8)U.K. (2019 = -2.1)Canada (2019 = -0.4)

Percent of GDP

NOTES: Data for 2019 are estimates; data for 2018 are estimates for all except U.K.



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2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

Percent of GDP

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Percent of GDP

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Percent of GDP

Chart 19a. General Government Net Lending/Borrowing

NOTES: Data for 2019 are estimates; data for Russia in 2018 is an estimate.

Brazil (2019 = -6.0) Russia (2019 = 1.9)

India (2019 = -7.4) Indonesia (2019 = -2.2)



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2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

Percent of GDP

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2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

Percent of GDP

Chart 19b. General Government Net Lending/Borrowing

NOTE: Data for 2019 are estimates; data for South Africa in 2018 is an estimate.

South Africa (2019 = -6.3)China (2019 = -6.4)


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2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Chart 20. General Government Gross Debt

U.S. (2019 = 106.2)Euro Area (2019 = 83.9)U.K. (2019 = 85.6)Canada (2019 = 87.5)

NOTES: Data for 2019 are estimates; data for 2018 are estimates for all except U.K.

Percent of GDP Percent of GDP

Japan (2019 = 237.7)





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2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

Percent of GDP

Chart 21a. General Government Gross Debt

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2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

Percent of GDP

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Percent of GDP

NOTES: Data for 2019 are estimates; data for Russia in 2018 is an estimate.

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2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

Percent of GDP

Brazil (2019 = 91.6) Russia (2019 = 16.5)

India (2019 = 69.0) Indonesia (2019 = 30.3)



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2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

Percent of GDP

Chart 21b. General Government Gross Debt

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2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

Percent of GDP

NOTES: Data for 2019 are estimates; data for South Africa in 2018 is an estimate.

China (2019 = 55.6) South Africa (2019 = 59.9)


Monetary Policy



Sources: National Central Banks; Haver Analytics Globalization Institute


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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Chart 22. Central Bank Policy Rates in Major Advanced Economies

U.S. (May 05 = 0.125)

Euro Area (May 06 = 0.00)

Japan (May 06 = -0.10)

U.K. (May 06 = 0.10)

Canada (May 06 = 0.25)

Percent

NOTES: The chart plots the federal funds rate for the U.S., the main refinancing operation rate for the Euro Area, the base rate for the U.K., the overnight target rate for Canada and the uncollateralized overnight call rate for Japan applied until April 3, 2013, before the main operating policy target changed to expanding the monetary base. On February 16, 2016, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) adopted negative interest rates applied to excess reserves that financial institutions hold at the BoJ. The Bank also introduced an interest rate target of around 0 percent for its 10-year government bond yields in September 2016.


Bank of Indonesia Rate (Aug 2016 = 6.50)

Repo Rate (May 06 = 4.40)

Bank of Russia Key Rate (May 06 = 5.50)



Brazil Russia

India Indonesia

Overnight SELIC Target Rate (May 06 = 3.75)

Reverse Repo Rate (May 06 = 3.75)

7-Day Reverse Repo Rate (May 06 = 4.50)

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2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Percent

Chart 23a. Central Bank Policy Rates in Major EmergingEconomies

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2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

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2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Percent

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2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Percent

NOTE: The Reserve Bank of India utilizes the repo rate to inject liquidity into the monetary system and the reverse repo rate to remove liquidity. On August 19, 2016, the Bank of Indonesia changed its policy rate from the BI rate to the 7-day reverse repo rate.


Average Repo Rate (May 06 = 4.25)



China South Africa

1-Year Lending Rate (Nov 21 = 4.15)

1-Year Deposit Rate (May 06 = 1.50)0

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2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

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2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

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Chart 23b. Central Bank Policy Rates in Major EmergingEconomies




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Chart 24. Money Supply Growth in Major Advanced Economies

U.S. (Mar = 13.7)Euro Area (Mar = 7.5)Japan (Mar = 3.3)U.K. (Mar = 8.1)Canada (Mar = 8.9)

Percent, Year/Year

NOTE: The chart plots MZM in the U.S, M2 in the Euro Area, Japan and Canada and M4 in the U.K.




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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Chart 25. Money Supply Growth in Major Emerging Economies

Brazil (Mar = 12.4)Russia (Mar = 13.4)India (Mar = 10.6)Indonesia (Mar = 12.1)China (Mar = 10.1)South Africa (Mar = 10.9)

Percent, Year/Year

NOTE: The chart plots M2 for each country.


U.S. External Accounts



Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Haver Analytics Globalization Institute


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1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Chart 26. U.S. Terms of Trade

Terms of Trade (Mar = 102.5)

Terms of Trade (Excluding Oil) (Mar = 88.8)

Index, Jan. 1990 = 100

NOTE: U.S. terms of trade are calculated as the import price index/export price index.


Sources: Census Bureau; Haver Analytics Globalization Institute


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2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Chart 27. U.S. Nominal Trade Balance, Customs Value

Bil. U.S. Dollars

NOTE: The chart plots the nominal trade balance in goods.

Last Observation: Mar = -64.4


Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; Haver Analytics Globalization Institute


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2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Chart 28. U.S. Current Account BalancePercent of GDP

NOTE: All values are nominal.

Last Observation: 2019 Q4 = -2.0


Sources: Federal Reserve Board; Haver Analytics Globalization Institute


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2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Chart 29. Nominal Value of the U.S. Dollar

Nominal Exchange Value of the U.S. Dollar (Apr = 117.4)U.S. Dollar vs. Major Currencies (Apr = 99.3)U.S. Dollar vs. Other Important Trading Partners (Apr = 145.5)

Index, Jan. 2000 = 100

NOTE: Countries or regions whose currencies are included in the major currencies index are the Euro Area, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, Switzerland, Australia and Sweden. Countries included in the other important trading partners index are Mexico, China, Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Brazil, Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia, India, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Argentina, Venezuela, Chile and Colombia. An increase in each index represents an appreciation of the U.S. dollar and a decrease represents a depreciation.


Sources: Federal Reserve Board; Haver Analytics Globalization Institute


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2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Chart 30. Real Value of the U.S. Dollar

Real Exchange Value of the U.S. Dollar (Apr = 109.9)U.S.Dollar vs. Major Currencies (Apr = 112.3)U.S.Dollar vs. Other Important Trading Partners (Apr = 109.6)

Index, Jan. 2000 = 100

NOTE: Countries or regions whose currencies are included in the major currencies index are the Euro Area, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, Switzerland, Australia and Sweden. Countries included in the other important trading partners index are Mexico, China, Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Brazil, Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia, India, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Argentina, Venezuela, Chile and Colombia. An increase in each index represents an appreciation of the U.S. dollar and a decrease represents a depreciation.


Current Analysis





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1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Chart 31. Global Current Account Balances

Bil. U.S. Dollars

U.S.

China

Japan

Others

Oil Exporters

Germany

NOTE: Oil exporting countries are Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. The remaining countries not already listed for which there is data comprise "Others". Striped columns denote forecasts.


Sources: Reuters; Haver Analytics Globalization Institute


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Chart 32. Bond Spreads for Select Euro Area Economies

Greece (Apr 03 = 270)Ireland (Apr 03 = 61)Portugal (Apr 03 = 125)Spain (Apr 03 = 116)Italy (Apr 03 = 186)

Basis Points

NOTE: The chart shows the spread, or difference, in interest rates between 10-year government bonds for various countries and German 10-year government bonds.


Globalization InstituteFederal Reserve Bank of DallasSources: Bank for International Settlements, International Monetary Fund; Haver Analytics

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France U.K. Germany Belgium IrelandSwitzerland Spain Austria Italy U.S. Japan Sweden Canada

Chart 33. Select Economies' Banking Exposure to Peripheral Euro-Area Sovereign Debt

GreeceIrelandPortugalSpainItaly

Percent of GDP

NOTES: The chart plots the claims that banks in each country have, as a share of its 2018 GDP, on sovereign debt in Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy. All GDP values are based on International Monetary Fund estimates. All values are nominal.

Q3 2019


Globalization InstituteFederal Reserve Bank of DallasSources: Bloomberg, International Monetary Fund; Haver Analytics

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GreeceIrelandPortugalSpainItaly

Percent of GDP

Chart 34. Sovereign Debt Repayment Schedulefor Select Euro-Area Economies

NOTES: Repayment amounts include both principal and accrued interest. All GDP values are projections from the International Monetary Fund. All values are nominal.


Documents

GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS - Dallasfed.org/media/documents/institute/global.pdf · Chart 6. Volume of World Merchandise Trade Index, 2000 = 100 NOTE: This series includes data from