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Global climate change:Global climate change:Scenarios and ImpactsScenarios and Impacts
Clare GoodessClare GoodessClimatic Research UnitClimatic Research Unit
University of East AngliaUniversity of East Angliahttp://www.cru.uea.ac.ukhttp://www.cru.uea.ac.uk
FOUR QUESTIONSFOUR QUESTIONS
Is global climate changing?Why is global climate changing?
What impact is this having in Europe?How will climate change in the future?
This co-operative cluster of projects brings together European expertise in the fields of climate modelling, regional downscaling, statistics, and impacts analysis to explore future changes in extreme events in response to global warming.•PRUDENCE will provide high-resolution climate change scenarios for 2071-2100 for Europe using regional climate models. PRUDENCE project summary•STARDEX will provide improved downscaling methodologies for the construction of scenarios of changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events. STARDEX project summary•MICE uses information from climate models to explore future changes in extreme events across Europe in response to global warming. MICE project summary Last modified:16 August 2002 MICE STARDEX PRUDENCEProject Web Sites:
Contact InformationCopyright information: the above photo montage was created in XaraX using copyright pictures from: © Collier County Florida Emergency Management and © Environment Agency.The three projects are supported by the European Commission under the Framework V Thematic Programme ”Energy, Environment and Sustainable Development” (EESD), 2002-2005.
Scroll down for Project Summaries: follow the links above to Project Web Sites.
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PRUDENCE
STARDEX
MICE
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/projects/mps/
FOUR QUESTIONSFOUR QUESTIONS
Is global climate changing?Why is global climate changing?
What impact is this having in Europe?How will climate change in the future?
Patterns of Patterns of Global Temperature ChangeGlobal Temperature Change
© Climatic Research Unit
Northern Hemisphere summer (JJA) Northern Hemisphere summer (JJA) temperature over the last 1000 yearstemperature over the last 1000 years
© Climatic Research Unit
FOUR QUESTIONSFOUR QUESTIONS
Is global climate changing?Why is global climate changing?
What impact is this having in Europe?How will climate change in the future?
Intergovernmental Panel on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)Climate Change (IPCC)
• Second assessment report 1998:– ‘the balance of evidence suggests a discernible
human influence on global climate’
• Third assessment report 2001:– ‘there is new and stronger evidence that most of
the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities’
FOUR QUESTIONSFOUR QUESTIONS
Is global climate changing?Why is global climate changing?
What impact is this having in Europe?How will climate change in the future?
1958-2000 trend in frost days1958-2000 trend in frost days
Scale is days per year. Red is decreasing
Malcolm Haylock, UEA/STARDEX
1958-2000 trend in frost days1958-2000 trend in frost days
Scale is days per year. Red is decreasing.
Malcolm Haylock, UEA/STARDEX
AthensAthensFebruary 2004February 2004
1958-2000 trend in hot summer (JJA) days1958-2000 trend in hot summer (JJA) days
Scale is days per year. Red is increasing
Malcolm Haylock, UEA/STARDEX
Scale is days per year. Red is increasing
Malcolm Haylock, UEA/STARDEX
Western EuropeWestern EuropeAugust 2003August 2003
Property damage: US$ 13 bnProperty damage: US$ 13 bnFatalities: 27,000 (14,800 in France)Fatalities: 27,000 (14,800 in France)
1958-2000 trend in hot summer (JJA) days1958-2000 trend in hot summer (JJA) days
1958-2000 trend in 1958-2000 trend in heavy summer (JJA) rain eventsheavy summer (JJA) rain events
Scale is days per year. Blue is increasing
Malcolm Haylock, UEA/STARDEX
1958-2000 trend in 1958-2000 trend in heavy summer rain eventsheavy summer rain events
Scale is days per year. Blue is increasing
Malcolm Haylock, UEA/STARDEX
Central and Eastern EuropeCentral and Eastern EuropeAugust 2002August 2002
Fatalities: > 100Fatalities: > 100Economic losses: > US$18 bnEconomic losses: > US$18 bnInsured losses: > US$3 bnInsured losses: > US$3 bn
