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Global Climate Change and Public Policy. Peak Oil, Climate Change, and Energy Alternatives Professor Leonard Rodberg Department of Urban Studies Office Powdermaker Rm 250A Email [email protected] Telephone 718-997-5134. 2004. US Oil Production and Imports. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Peak Oil, Climate Change,and
Energy Alternatives
Professor Leonard RodbergDepartment of Urban Studies
Office Powdermaker Rm 250A Email [email protected]
Telephone 718-997-5134
Global Climate Change and Public Policy
US Oil Production and Imports
2004
The Time Course of Production of any Non-renewal Resource according to M. King Hubbert
It Gets Harder and Harder to Find Oil
Hubbert Curve for US Oil Production - 1956
US Oil Production and Imports
2004
The Paper that Started It All…
*Publication No. 95, Shell Development Company, Exploration and Production Research Division, Houston, Texas
**Chief Consultant (General Geology).
World Energy Use by Fuel
Hubbert Curve for World Oil Production - 1956
The Decline of New Oil Discoveries
Oil Production Worldwide
The Optimists’ View
Taking the Long View: The History of the Human Race
according to M. King Hubbert
It’s Getting Warmer
The Long View
CO2, CH4 and N2O Concentrations
- far exceed pre-industrial values- increased markedly since 1750 due to human activities
Relatively little variation beforethe industrial era
Human and Natural Drivers of Climate Change
And the Sea Level is Rising
Greenhouse Effect
What are the Greenhouse Gases?• Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
• Methane (CH4)
Principal Source: Burning of Fossil Fuels: Oil, natural gas/methane, coal Hydrocarbons (CnHm)) + Oxygen (O2) CO2 + H2O
Also Nitrous Oxide (N2O)
Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)
The Concentration of CO2 is Growing
GHG Trends 1970-2004
Radiative Forcing Components
Carbon, and Fossil Fuels, are the Culprit
At continental, regional, and ocean basin scales, numerous long-term changes in climate have been observed. These include:
– Changes in Arctic temperatures and ice,
– Widespread changes in precipitation amounts, ocean salinity, wind patterns
– and aspects of extreme weather including droughts, heavy precipitation, heat waves and the intensity of tropical cyclones
Direct Observation of Recent Climate Change
Declining Sea Ice
http://www.pewclimate.org/global-warming-basics/facts_and_figures/impacts/lateseaice.cfm
Impacts Worldwide
GLOBAL WARMING: Early Warning GLOBAL WARMING: Early Warning SignsSigns
Fingerprints and HarbingersHeat waves and periods of unusually warm weather
Sea level rise and coastal flooding
Glaciers melting
Arctic and Antarctic warming
Spreading disease
Earlier spring arrival
Plant and animal range shifts and population declines
Coral reef bleaching
Downpours, heavy snowfalls, and flooding
Droughts and fires
www.climatehotmap.org
Natural gas causes more global warming but less air pollution mortality than coal over 150 years due to less sulfate (a cooling agent) and more methane (a warming agent) from natural gas than coal. Coal causes higher mortality.
50-70 times more CO2 and air pollution per kWh
than windHydrofracking causes land and water supply degradation
Why Not Natural Gas?
9-25 times more pollution per kWh than wind from mining & refining uranium, using fossil fuels for electricity during the 11-19 years to permit (6-10 y) and construct (4-9 y) nuclear plant compared with 2-5 years for a wind or solar farm
Risk of meltdown (1.5% of all nuclear reactors to date have melted)
Risk of nuclear weapons proliferation
Unresolved waste issues
Why Not Nuclear?
Corn and cellulosic E85 cause same or higher air pollution as gasoline
-- Corn E85: 90-200% of CO2 emissions of
gasoline-- Cellulosic E85: 50-150% of CO2
emissions of gasoline
Wind: <1% of CO2 emissions as gasoline
Enormous land use and water requirements
Why Not Ethanol?
U.S. Carbon Stabilization via Wedges
Source: Lashof and Hawkins, NRDC, in Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American, September 2006, p. 57
Wind ElectricityWind Electricity
Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge:
One million 2-MW windmills displacing coal power.
Today: 50,000 MW (1/40)
Prototype of 80 m tall Nordex 2,5 MW wind turbine located in Grevenbroich, Germany
(Danish Wind Industry Association)
Wind Electricity
Photovoltaic Power
ElectricityElectricityNuclearNuclear
Site: Surry station, James River, VA; 1625 MW since 1972-73.Credit: Dominion.
A revised goal: retrievable storage Natural-U plants (no enrichment), no reprocessingUniversal rules and international governance
Phase out of nuclear power creates the need for another half wedge.
Nuclear ElectricityEffort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge:
700 GW (twice current capacity) displacing coal power.
Biofuels
Efficient Use of ElectricityEfficient Use of Electricity
lightingmotors cogeneration
Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge:
.25% reduction in expected 2055 electricity use in commercial and residential buildings
Target commercial and multifamily buildings.
Efficient Use of Electricity
Efficient Use of FuelEfficient Use of Fuel
Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge:
Note: 1 car driven 10,000 miles at 30 mpg emits 1 ton of carbon.
2 billion cars driven 10,000 miles per year at 60 mpg instead of 30 mpg.
2 billion cars driven, at 30 mpg, 5,000 instead of 10,000 miles per year.
Property-tax systems that reinvigorate cities and discourage sprawl
Efficient Use of Fuel
Carbon StorageCarbon Storage
Graphic courtesy of Statoil ASA Graphic courtesy of David Hawkins
Sleipner project, offshore Norway
Carbon Storage
Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge:
3500 Sleipners @1 MtCO2/yr
100 x U.S. CO2 injection rate for EOR
A flow of CO2 into the Earth equal to the flow of oil out of the Earth today
Reforestation and Land Conservation
NYC Energy Profile 1979
Saving Energy in NYC
Source: L. Rodberg and G. Stokes, The Village Voice, Feb. 18, 1980
PlaNYC Mitigation Measures
PlaNYC Wedges
Planning for a Major Hurricane
Both Adaptation and Mitigation:Mayor’s PlaNYC Adapts to Some
Inevitable Climate Change
• Protect our city’s vital infrastructure
• Work with vulnerable neighborhoods to develop site-specific strategies
• Launch a citywide strategic planning process for climate change adaptation