Upload
brook
View
50
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
EU Climate Change Policy. Jos Delbeke Director General - DG Climate Action European Commission Leuven, 27.01.2011. EU Environmental Policy: a new policy field. 1986/87: Single European Act: Co-decision Council and EU Parliament QMV (Qualified Majority Voting) Today: - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
EU Climate
Change Policy Jos Delbeke
Director General - DG Climate Action
European Commission
Leuven, 27.01.2011
1
EU Environmental Policy: a new policy field
• 1986/87: Single European Act: • Co-decision Council and EU Parliament
• QMV (Qualified Majority Voting)
• Today:
• Comprehensive set of EU legislation covering air, water, nature, waste
• Why European level?
• Common problems
• Pollution does not respect borders
• Internal market (product standards and competitiveness issues) 2
Sustainability Imperative
• POPULATION: today 7 billion, 9 billion until 2050• ENERGY: IEA: 2030 – 40% increase in energy demand
(3/4 fossil fuels) 2050 > 1000 ppm GHG concentration
• WATER: OECD: 2030 – 4 bn people in water stress
• FOOD: doubling of production in next 40 years
• CITIES: UN: more than half population in cities 2050: 80% population in cities
• TRANSPORT: 2050: 3 bn vehicles (850 m today) 3
Climate change: Science reveals serious problem
CO2 today
CO2 last 600.000 yrs
CO2 in 2050 (BAU)
Temp. last 600.000 yrs
4
Kilimanjaro then and now
1912 2000
5
EU global vision: global peak
by 2020 and deep cuts by 2050
6
Total CO2 and per capita emissions by major emitter in
2009
Source: J. Olivier and J.A. Peters: No growth in total CO2 emissions in 2009. Netherlands Environment Agency; IEA data for EU-27
Region Gt GHG World share % t GHG/cap
China 8,06 25,8 6,1United States 5,31 17,0 17,2EU 27 3,85 12,3 7,8India 1,67 5,3 1,4Russian Federation 1,57 5,0 11,2Brazil 0,38 1,2 1,9
7
EU emission reduction objectives for Copenhagen
(COP15)
• For 2020:
• industrialized countries: 25-40% reductions
• developing countries: 15-30% below BAU (business as usual forecasts)
• For 2050:
50-85% reductions globally
Comparability of efforts: income, efficiency, population trends, past efforts
8
The Cancún Package
• UNFCCC decisions on:• Tropical deforestation (REDD+)• Adaptation• Green Fund• MRV/mitigation• Capacity building• Technology transfer• Market mechanisms
• Process on legally binding nature of commitments/actions
• Continuation of Kyoto• Actions by “developing countries” 9
Cancún – COP 16
• Legal Outcome
• Kyoto Protocol: 2nd Commitment Period• Conditions: AAUs/LULUCF• Other players: US?
• Convention: parallel “commitments” (e.g. emerging economies)?
10
Tropical Deforestation (REDD+)
• Goal of reducing deforestation• Halving by 2020• Stopping by 2030
• Three phases:• Readiness• Implementation• Result-based payments (e.g. carbon market)
• Link biodiversity/social considerations11
Mitigation
• “Anchoring” the pledge:• From Copenhagen Accord to UNFCCC context• Only a starting point (2°C)• Legally binding• Implementation
• For developed countries:• Robust accounting system (transparency)
• For developing countries:• Registry: NAMAs seeking support• Encourage LEDS (low emission development
strategies)• Collective deviation 15-30% from business as usual
12
MRV
• Development and developing:• Improved national communications• Process to develop detailed MRV guidelines
next year
• I.C.A.• Facilitative• Technical analysis• International dimension
13
Kyoto commitments:The EU is delivering
• EU-15 target for 2008-2012: - 8%
• EU-15 - 1990-2008: GHG emissions: - 6.5% GDP growth: +45%
• EU-27 - 1990-2008: GHG emissions: -11% GDP growth: +46% 14
Kyoto commitments:The EU is delivering
Actual and projected emissions for EU-15
3.600
3.800
4.000
4.200
4.400
4.600
4.800
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Mt
CO
2 e
q.
EU-15 emissions Kyoto mechanisms use by governmentsEU-15 existing measures Carbon sinksEU-15 Kyoto target Allowance and credit acquisition by EU ETS sectors Business as usual EU-15 additional measures 15
Kyoto commitments:The EU is delivering
Energy Supply
Energy Use
Transport
Industrial Processes
Agriculture
Waste
Solvents & Other
Past change in GHG emissions, 1990-2007
1%-15%
24%-11%-11%
-39%-24%
-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
16
EU decides to reduce CO2 emissions in 2020 by 20%
Greenhouse Gas Emissions:• today: -6.5%(compared to 1990/including
aviation)• to do: 14% (compared to 2005)
Renewable Energy: • today: 8.5% (mainly through large scale hydro
and conventional biomass)• to do: 11.5%
17
EU ETS as of 1.1.2005
• Emitting CO2 has a price (becomes a cost): cost-effective incentive to use cleaner technology
• Some 10,000 installations in power and industry face quantitative limits to CO2 emissions (allowances)
• Covers ±45% of EU emissions
• Overall cap:• 2005: 2.3 bn tonnes• 2008: 2.08 bn tonnes• 2020: 1.72 bn tonnes
- 21% compared to 2005 18
-20%
2083 Mt/yr
Gradient: -1.74%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
EU ETS: a predictable EU-wide cap beyond 2020 (gradual
steps)
Starting point: 1974 Mt in 2013
1720 Mt
•Linear factor to be reviewed by 2025•Aviation to be included; will change figures correspondingly, but cap not reduced•Disclaimer: all figures are provisional and do not account for new sectors in third period
19
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jan-
07
Mar
-07
May
-07
Jul-0
7
Sep
-07
Nov
-07
Jan-
08
Mar
-08
May
-08
Jul-0
8
Sep
-08
Nov
-08
Jan-
09
Mar
-09
May
-09
Jul-0
9
Sep
-09
Nov
-09
Jan-
10
Mar
-10
EU
A p
rices
€/t
Source: Point Carbon
EU ETS: price development
20
EU ETS: Harmonised Allocation Rules
• Fully harmonised allocation rules
• Auctioning is default allocation method – for power sector
• Free allocation (partial or full) on basis of ex-ante benchmark (10% best) for energy-intensive manufacturing sectors
21
EU ETS: International offsets
• Certainty and predictability: credits to be used up to
2020
• Quantity restriction (supplementarity: 50% of
reduction effort):
• minimum 11% of NAP2 allocation
• corresponding to roughly 6% of phase 2 and 3 caps
• resulting in 1.6 to 1.7 Bt over 2008-20
• Quality: comitology (harmonised approach) to ensure
that credits represent real emission reductions
• no nuclear and forestry allowed22
EU ETS: Aviation included as from 2012
• Cap:• 2012: 97% of 2004-06 emissions• From 2013 onwards: 95%
• Auctioning: 15% as from 2012
• Scope: internal, outbound and inbound aviation
• A third country can take equivalent measures
23
Incentivising CCS and RES projects
• Carbon price is main incentive for CCS/RES
• In addition, up to 300 million allowances available until end 2015 for CCS and innovative renewable energy technology demonstration projects (± 4/5 bn €)
• Projects selected on the basis of objective and transparent criteria, ensuring geographical balance
• Operators receive support only after demonstrated performance
24
Renewable Energy Directive
• Sets mandatory targets per MS for renewable energy shares in 2020
- 2009: 8,5% of EU’s energy consumption renewable
- 2020: 20%
• Reduction of administrative barriers, regulatory stability, and improved access to the electricity grid
• Creates a sustainability regime for biofuels
By 2020 every kwh of power out of 3 produced will be from renewable origin 25
49%
13%
16%
13%
30%
18%
25%
16%
18%
20%
23%
17%
13%
42%
23%
11%
13%
14%
34%
15%
31%
24%
25%
14%
38%
15%
10%
RES share in 2020
BEBGCZDKDEEEIEELESFRITCYLVLTLUHUMTNLATPLPTROSISKFISEUK
Renewable Energy Directive: MS targets
26
CO2 from cars
• Reduction of CO2 from new passenger cars (fleet-wide average):
2015: 130 g/km (48mpg)2020: 95 g/km (65mpg)2009: 146g/km (1995: 186g/km)
• Taxation of motor fuels: a major driver towards energy-efficient cars (± 50% of price at pump)
• Importance of scrappage schemes and CO2
modulation of registration taxes• Being extended to light duty vehicles (VANs)
27
CO2 from cars
28
Energy efficiency of products
• Minimum performance requirements of energy-using and energy-related products (Eco-design Directive (2009/125/EC))
• Labelling of energy efficiency class of products (Labelling Directive (92/75/EEC))
29
Energy efficiency of products
Adopted implementing measures
Date of application
Greenhouse gas emission reductions in 2020 compared to BAU development, mln. tons of CO2 equivalent[Source: “Analysis of impact of efficiency standards on EU GHG emissions” by Ökopol GmbH, 2010]
Electric motors 16.6.2011 ~ 32.1
Televisions 20.8.2010 ~ 8.6
Street & office lighting 13.4.2010 ~ 12.3
Domestic lighting 1.9.2009 ~ 9.7 – 12.2
Standby & off mode electrical power consumption
8.1.2010 ~ 10.7
Glandless circulators 1.1.2013 ~ 7
External power supplies 27.4.2010 ~ 2.8
Domestic fridges & freezers
1.7.2010 ~ 1.4
Simple set-top boxes 25.2.210 ~ 2.830
Energy efficiency of products
Implementing measures in the pipeline
Greenhouse gas emission reductions in 2020 compared to BAU development, mln. tons of CO2 equivalent[Source: “Analysis of impact of efficiency standards on EU GHG emissions” by Ökopol GmbH, 2010]
Boilers ~ 15.4 – 27.1
Water heaters ~ 6.6 – 13.0
Fans ~ 13.3 – 18.3
Air conditioning and ventilation ~ 3.9 – 9.5
… …
+/- 140 mio. tonnes of CO2 31
Energy performance of buildings
• Minimum energy performance requirements set by Member States:• for all new and existing buildings• for technical building systems and building elements
• Commission develops benchmarking methodology to compare the level of ambition
• All new buildings will be “nearly zero-energy buildings” at end of 2020
32
Fuel Quality Directive
• 6% reduction by 2020 of life cycle greenhouse gas emissions per unit of energy from fuel
• saves 60 million tonnes CO2eq by 2020• How?
• substitution of fossil fuels by other fuels such as sustainable biofuels (~50% of the target)
• LPG and CNG (~5% of the target)• electric cars (~10% of the target)• reducing upstream emissions in and outside of
the EU (could be 50% or more of the target)33
The Effort Sharing Decision
• Covers ±55% of EU emissions • "small emitters", not covered by EU ETS• A diverse set of sectors: transport, heating in
buildings, services & SME’s, agriculture (N20, CH4), waste (CH4), HFC’s
• Major differences in cost-effective emission reduction potential (eg. high for some non CO2 emissions and buildings, low in transport)
• National, regional and local action very important
34
EU long term climate policy targets
• EU and Cancun Agreement objective to globally limit climate change to 2ºC • Agreement to develop long term low carbon
strategies
• European Council has set 2050 targets for EU• October 2009: -80-95% by 2050 compared to 1990 in
line with IPCC as target for all industrialised countries and the EU
• Commission prepares low-carbon economy roadmap 2050 to be published in the coming months
35
2050 Low carbon economy roadmap: objectives
• Possible pathways for the transition to a low carbon economy for the EU• Achieve EU climate targets• ensure sustainable growth and jobs• make the EU energy secure
• Identify practical steps for next years
• Contribute to Europe 2020 strategy• Resource efficient Europe flagship
initiative 36
2050 and interim steps
• EU -20% target by 2020 is important step, but not fully in line with scientific evidence • IPCC: Industrialised countries -25-40% by 2020• EU offer to move to 30% if conditions are right
• Environment Council October 2010• the roadmap for a safe and sustainable low-carbon
economy by 2050 should also inform the analysis of policy options up to 2020
• May 2010 analysis of options to move beyond 20%, discussed by other EU institutions
37
Cost of -20%/30% revisited
38
Cost of 20-30% revisited
• Costs of -20% lower due to: - economic recession - higher energy prices
- higher energy efficiency
(new baseline for 2020 includes ETS, CO2 from cars, eco-design measures)
• Carbon price lower, weaker incentive for innovation:
- now: 15 €- 2020: less than 20 € (unused allowances)
• Costs of -30% remain substantial:- ETS: target from -21% to -34% - Effort Sharing: target from -10% to -16%
39
40