GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND ISLAND AND ISLAND COMMUNITIESCOMMUNITIES

David J. KeelingDavid J. Keeling

Department of Department of Geography and Geology Geography and Geology

Western Kentucky Western Kentucky University University Bowling Green, Kentucky Bowling Green, Kentucky

American Geographical American Geographical SocietySociety

All Material used from copyrighted sources is fair-use for academic purposes only.

As we visit the Pacific and Indian Oceans…. Let’s demystify Global Climate Change

THE DEBATE…..THE DEBATE….. Political perspectivesPolitical perspectives::

AN INCONVENIENT TRUTHAN INCONVENIENT TRUTH

oror

UUNSUBSTANTIATEDNSUBSTANTIATED

SCIENCESCIENCE??

INTERACTING INFLUENCESINTERACTING INFLUENCES

CLIMATECLIMATE

CHANGECHANGE

HUMANHUMAN

ACTIVITIESACTIVITIES

PLANETARY PLANETARY CYCLESCYCLES

LONG-TERM LONG-TERM CLIMATE CLIMATE

OSCILLATIONSOSCILLATIONS

ECOLOGY AND ECOLOGY AND ENVIRONMENTENVIRONMENT

KEY QUESTION: WHAT IS THE NET HUMAN CONTRIBUTION KEY QUESTION: WHAT IS THE NET HUMAN CONTRIBUTION TO OVERALL CLIMATE CHANGE? TO OVERALL CLIMATE CHANGE?

EXTRA-EXTRA-PLANETARY PLANETARY

EFFECTSEFFECTS

THE DEBATE …..THE DEBATE ….. Economic perspectives:Economic perspectives:

CHANGING RESOURCE BASECHANGING RESOURCE BASE ---- Water, agriculture, minerals, etc.---- Water, agriculture, minerals, etc.

THE DEBATE …..THE DEBATE ….. Societal perspectivesSocietal perspectives::

HOW WILL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ME HOW WILL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ME ??

MY COMMUNITY ?MY COMMUNITY ? MY SOCIETY ?MY SOCIETY ?

Cedar Pines near Lake BaikalCedar Pines near Lake Baikal

CLIMATE IMPACTS

GEOPOLITICAL PERSPECTIVESGEOPOLITICAL PERSPECTIVES

The Intelligence CommunityThe Intelligence Community …… ……

Long-term analysis of “friction zones” Long-term analysis of “friction zones” that likely will develop because of that likely will develop because of global climate change.global climate change.

Are we asking the right questions Are we asking the right questions about the right places ???about the right places ???

The Scientists’ The Scientists’ Rumsfeldian Dilemma!Rumsfeldian Dilemma!

We know what we don’t knowWe know what we don’t know

The Scientists’ The Scientists’ Rumsfeldian Dilemma!Rumsfeldian Dilemma!

We know what we don’t knowWe know what we don’t know We don’t know what we should We don’t know what we should

knowknow

The Scientists’ The Scientists’ Rumsfeldian Dilemma!Rumsfeldian Dilemma!

We know what we don’t knowWe know what we don’t know We don’t know what we should knowWe don’t know what we should know We haven’t known what we We haven’t known what we

could have knowncould have known

The Scientists’ The Scientists’ Rumsfeldian Dilemma!Rumsfeldian Dilemma!

We know what we don’t knowWe know what we don’t know We don’t know what we should knowWe don’t know what we should know We haven’t known what we could have We haven’t known what we could have

knownknown We know that we don’t know what We know that we don’t know what

we need to knowwe need to know

The Scientists’ The Scientists’ Rumsfeldian Dilemma!Rumsfeldian Dilemma!

We know what we don’t knowWe know what we don’t know We don’t know what we should knowWe don’t know what we should know We haven’t known what we could have knownWe haven’t known what we could have known We know that we don’t know what we ought to We know that we don’t know what we ought to

knowknow Knowing what we do know hasn’t Knowing what we do know hasn’t

helped us to know enough about helped us to know enough about what we don’t knowwhat we don’t know

CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE NOTNOT GLOBAL WARMING! GLOBAL WARMING!

Earth systems are complex – Earth systems are complex – some regions will grow warmersome regions will grow warmer

while others will grow colderwhile others will grow colder

SCALE, SCALE, SCALE!!SCALE, SCALE, SCALE!!

Local (micro)Local (micro)

SCALE, SCALE, SCALE !SCALE, SCALE, SCALE !

Regional (meso)Regional (meso)

SCALE, SCALE, SCALE !SCALE, SCALE, SCALE ! GLOBAL (macro)GLOBAL (macro)

REALLY BIG …REALLY BIG … PlanetaryPlanetary

andand

Solar System Solar System

Planetary Influences….Planetary Influences….

Earth’s RotationEarth’s Rotation

- Pressure Gradient - Pressure Gradient

- Coriolis Force- Coriolis Force

Basic Forces:Basic Forces:

Coriolis ForceCoriolis ForcePressure Gradient

Hadley Cells and Global Circulation PatternsHadley Cells and Global Circulation Patterns

Planetary Behavior….Planetary Behavior….

Orbital Eccentricity = 100,000 Orbital Eccentricity = 100,000 yearsyears

Basic Forces:Basic Forces:

Planetary Behavior….Planetary Behavior….

Tilt of the Axis (23.5 today) = 41,000 yearsTilt of the Axis (23.5 today) = 41,000 years

Basic Forces:Basic Forces:

Planetary Behavior….Planetary Behavior….

Precession of Spin Axis = 26,000 Precession of Spin Axis = 26,000 yearsyears

Basic Forces:Basic Forces:

Milankovitch’s Orbital VariationsMilankovitch’s Orbital Variations

Orbital Eccentricity

TiltWobble

PLANETARY CIRCULATIONPLANETARY CIRCULATION

PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATIONPACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION

Global Climate CyclesGlobal Climate Cycles

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)

WHAT ARE THE POLICY ISSUES?WHAT ARE THE POLICY ISSUES?

HUMAN IMPACTS ON CLIMATE HUMAN IMPACTS ON CLIMATE CHANGECHANGE

andand

CLIMATE CHANGE’S IMPACTS ON CLIMATE CHANGE’S IMPACTS ON HUMANS HUMANS

WHAT ARE THE ISSUES?WHAT ARE THE ISSUES? POLITICAL & SOCIAL POLICY POLITICAL & SOCIAL POLICY

RESPONSESRESPONSES

WHAT ARE THE ISSUES?WHAT ARE THE ISSUES? POLITICAL & SOCIAL POLICY POLITICAL & SOCIAL POLICY

RESPONSESRESPONSES

CHANGES IN THE PHYSICAL CHANGES IN THE PHYSICAL LANDSCAPE LANDSCAPE

WHAT ARE THE ISSUES?WHAT ARE THE ISSUES? POLITICAL & SOCIAL POLICY POLITICAL & SOCIAL POLICY

RESPONSESRESPONSES

CHANGES IN THE PHYSICAL LANDSCAPE CHANGES IN THE PHYSICAL LANDSCAPE

IMPLICATIONS FOR ALL SPECIESIMPLICATIONS FOR ALL SPECIES

WHAT ARE THE ISSUES?WHAT ARE THE ISSUES? POLITICAL & SOCIAL POLICY RESPONSESPOLITICAL & SOCIAL POLICY RESPONSES

CHANGES IN THE PHYSICAL LANDSCAPE CHANGES IN THE PHYSICAL LANDSCAPE

IMPLICATIONS FOR ALL SPECIESIMPLICATIONS FOR ALL SPECIES

HUMAN IMPACTS ON HUMAN IMPACTS ON CLIMATE CHANGECLIMATE CHANGE

Human Long-Term Implications?Human Long-Term Implications?► What are the observable What are the observable fingerprints of global climate change:fingerprints of global climate change:

●

Human Long-Term Implications?Human Long-Term Implications?► What are the observable fingerprints of

global climate change:

● Heat waves and periods of Heat waves and periods of unusually warm weather, along with unusually warm weather, along with droughtsdroughts

●

Human Long-Term Implications?Human Long-Term Implications?► What are the observable fingerprints of

global climate change:

● Heat waves and periods of unusually warm weather, along with droughts

● Ocean warming, sea-level rise, Ocean warming, sea-level rise, and coastal floodingand coastal flooding

●

Human Long-Term Implications?Human Long-Term Implications?► What are the observable fingerprints of

global climate change:

● Heat waves and periods of unusually warm weather, along with droughts

● Ocean warming, sea-level rise, and coastal flooding

● Glaciers meltingGlaciers melting

●● Arctic and Arctic and

Antarctic warmingAntarctic warming

SMALL ISLAND CLIMATE SMALL ISLAND CLIMATE CHANGE CHALLENGESCHANGE CHALLENGES

Food SecurityFood Security

SMALL ISLAND CLIMATE SMALL ISLAND CLIMATE CHANGE CHALLENGESCHANGE CHALLENGES

Food SecurityFood Security

Loss of land for agriculture and Loss of land for agriculture and housinghousing

SMALL ISLAND CLIMATE SMALL ISLAND CLIMATE CHANGE CHALLENGESCHANGE CHALLENGES

Food SecurityFood Security

Loss of land for agriculture and housingLoss of land for agriculture and housing

Human HealthHuman Health

SMALL ISLAND CLIMATE SMALL ISLAND CLIMATE CHANGE CHALLENGESCHANGE CHALLENGES

Food SecurityFood Security

Loss of land for agriculture and housingLoss of land for agriculture and housing

Human HealthHuman Health

Transportation ChangesTransportation Changes

SMALL ISLAND CLIMATE SMALL ISLAND CLIMATE CHANGE CHALLENGESCHANGE CHALLENGES

Food SecurityFood Security Loss of land for agriculture and housingLoss of land for agriculture and housing Human HealthHuman Health Transportation ChangesTransportation Changes

Coastal and Indigenous Coastal and Indigenous PopulationsPopulations

Implications for Island States Implications for Island States are Graveare Grave

Areas such as the Maldives, the Areas such as the Maldives, the Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, and Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, and Kiribati may face inundation from Kiribati may face inundation from sea-level risesea-level rise

Implications for Island States Implications for Island States are Graveare Grave

Areas such as the Maldives, the Areas such as the Maldives, the Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, and Kiribati Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, and Kiribati may face inundation from sea-level risemay face inundation from sea-level rise

Many more may face devastation Many more may face devastation from more intense hurricanes and from more intense hurricanes and greater rainfall even in moderate greater rainfall even in moderate hurricanes hurricanes

Implications for Island States are GraveImplications for Island States are Grave Areas such as the Maldives, the Marshall Areas such as the Maldives, the Marshall

Islands, Tuvalu, and Kiribati may face Islands, Tuvalu, and Kiribati may face inundation from sea-level riseinundation from sea-level rise

Many more may face devastation from more Many more may face devastation from more intense hurricanes and greater rainfall even intense hurricanes and greater rainfall even in moderate hurricanes in moderate hurricanes

Grenada, Haiti, and Cayman Grenada, Haiti, and Cayman Islands damage in 2004 Islands damage in 2004 possible harbinger of futurepossible harbinger of future

INNOVATIVE ADAPTION INNOVATIVE ADAPTION NEEDEDNEEDED

Small Island States produce only a tiny Small Island States produce only a tiny fraction of global greenhouse gas emissionsfraction of global greenhouse gas emissions

Island States are among the most vulnerable Island States are among the most vulnerable to Climate Changeto Climate Change

Most island nations are dependent on high-Most island nations are dependent on high-cost fossil fuels and very expensive electricitycost fossil fuels and very expensive electricity

A significant number of people don’t have A significant number of people don’t have access to electricity, especially in the Pacificaccess to electricity, especially in the Pacific

Island States are especially suited to utilize Island States are especially suited to utilize modern renewable energy and energy modern renewable energy and energy efficiency technologies due to their economic efficiency technologies due to their economic and geographical conditionsand geographical conditions

Climate Change and Small Climate Change and Small Island StatesIsland States

Harbingers of Global Climate ChangeHarbingers of Global Climate Change

Spreading diseaseSpreading disease Earlier spring arrivalEarlier spring arrival Plant and animal range shifts and Plant and animal range shifts and

population changespopulation changes

Coral reef bleachingCoral reef bleaching

Downpours, heavy Downpours, heavy snowfalls, snowfalls, and floodingand flooding Droughts and firesDroughts and fires

What might we expect in coming decades?

Health ImpactsWeather-related MortalityInfectious DiseasesAir Quality-Respiratory Illnesses

Agriculture ImpactsCrop yieldsIrrigation demands

Water Resource ImpactsChanges in water supplyWater qualityIncreased competition for waterImpacts on Coastal AreasErosion of beachesInundate coastal landsCosts to defend coastal communities

Forest ImpactsChange in forest compositionShift geographic range of forestsForest Health and Productivity

Species and Natural AreasShift in ecological zonesLoss of habitat and species

The systemic nature of climate change impactsThe systemic nature of climate change impactsis an added challengeis an added challenge

Climate Changes

Sea Level Rise

Temperature

Precipitation

Cultural ResourcesCultural Resources

THANK YOU!!THANK YOU!!