Global Challenges Sustainable Engineering and International Development AE/CE/EE/ME 388x

Global ChallengesGlobal Challenges

Sustainable Engineering and Sustainable Engineering and International DevelopmentInternational Development

AE/CE/EE/ME 388xAE/CE/EE/ME 388x

Road MapRoad Map

• Summary of Global ChallengesSummary of Global Challenges

• IPAT EquationIPAT Equation

• Future TrendsFuture Trends– Population DynamicsPopulation Dynamics

• Factor Four; Factor 10Factor Four; Factor 10

Turn to you neighborTurn to you neighbor

1.1. Introduce yourselvesIntroduce yourselves

2.2. Why did you take this class?Why did you take this class?

3.3. What do you think is the biggest What do you think is the biggest global challenge? Why?global challenge? Why?

Keep in Mind:Keep in Mind:

• Global challenges and development Global challenges and development issues are:issues are:– ComplexComplex– ControversialControversial– Multi-disciplinaryMulti-disciplinary

• Stay engaged and objectiveStay engaged and objective• Treat other points of view with respectTreat other points of view with respect• Question assumptionsQuestion assumptions


• Water quality and availabilityWater quality and availability

• Loss of BiodiversityLoss of Biodiversity

• Energy Use, Consequences, and Energy Use, Consequences, and SupplySupply

• PopulationPopulation

• PovertyPoverty

• Food Supply and ProductionFood Supply and Production

Water quality and Water quality and availabilityavailability

• ““Water-related problems have been Water-related problems have been recognized as the most immediate recognized as the most immediate and serious threat to humankind.”and serious threat to humankind.”

Klaus TopferKlaus Topfer

UN Environment ProgramUN Environment Program

(UNEP, 2002)


• Fresh waterFresh water– Half the world’s rivers are seriously depleted Half the world’s rivers are seriously depleted

and polluted.and polluted.– Water shortagesWater shortages

• 80 Countries; 40% of world’s population in mid-80 Countries; 40% of world’s population in mid-1990’s1990’s

– No access to safe drinking waterNo access to safe drinking water• 1.1 billion people1.1 billion people

– No access to improve sanitation facilitiesNo access to improve sanitation facilities• 2.4 billion people2.4 billion people

(UNEP, 2002)

(UNEP, 2002)

(UNEP, 2002)

(UNEP, 2002)


• BiodiversityBiodiversity– 24% of mammals and 12% of bird species 24% of mammals and 12% of bird species

currently regarded as globally threatenedcurrently regarded as globally threatened– Loss and degredation of habitatLoss and degredation of habitat

• Agricultural development (1.2 million kmAgricultural development (1.2 million km22 in past 30 in past 30 years)years)

• LoggingLogging

• Dam constructionDam construction

• MiningMining

• Urban developmentUrban development

(UNEP, 2002)

World and US Energy Use World and US Energy Use (1998)(1998)Fuel SourceFuel Source Percent of total Percent of total

world useworld usePercent of total Percent of total United States United States useuse

PetroleumPetroleum 33.033.0 38.138.1

CoalCoal 21.221.2 22.322.3

Natural GasNatural Gas 20.020.0 24.124.1

BiomassBiomass 13.013.0 3.13.1

HydropowerHydropower 6.16.1 4.44.4

NuclearNuclear 6.26.2 7.67.6

Solar, Wind Solar, Wind GeothermalGeothermal

0.50.5 0.40.4

TotalTotal 100.0100.0 100.0100.0(Dorf, 2001)

Energy ConsequencesEnergy Consequences

• COCO22 concentrations concentrations– 367 ppmv367 ppmv– 25% higher than 150 years ago25% higher than 150 years ago

• COCO22 emissions emissions– 7,000 million metric tons carbon in 20027,000 million metric tons carbon in 2002

Historic COHistoric CO22 Concentration Concentration

(Neftel et al., 1994)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

Year

Car

bo

n (

Mil

lio

n m

etri

c to

ns)

Total

Gas fuel

Liquid fuel

Solid fuel

CementproductionGas flaring

Global COGlobal CO2 2 Emissions (1751 to Emissions (1751 to 2002)2002)

(Marland et al., 2005)

Global Per capita COGlobal Per capita CO2 2

Emissions (1751 to 2002)Emissions (1751 to 2002)

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

Per

cap

ita

CO

2 em

issi

on

s (m

etri

c to

ns

of

carb

on

)

(Marland et al., 2005)

Global Mean TemperaturesGlobal Mean Temperatures

(Policymaker’s Summary, 1990)

Energy SupplyEnergy Supply““The supply of oil in the ground is not The supply of oil in the ground is not

infinite. Someday, annual world crude oil infinite. Someday, annual world crude oil production has to reach a peak and start production has to reach a peak and start to decline. It is my opinion that the peak to decline. It is my opinion that the peak will occur in late 2005 or in the first few will occur in late 2005 or in the first few months of 2006. I nominate Thanksgiving months of 2006. I nominate Thanksgiving Day, November 24, 2005, as World Oil Day, November 24, 2005, as World Oil Peak Day. There is a reason for selecting Peak Day. There is a reason for selecting Thanksgiving. We can pause and give Thanksgiving. We can pause and give thanks for the years from 1901 to 2005 thanks for the years from 1901 to 2005 when abundant oil and natural gas fueled when abundant oil and natural gas fueled enormous changes in our society. At the enormous changes in our society. At the same time, we have to face up to reality: same time, we have to face up to reality: World oil production is going to decline, World oil production is going to decline, slowly at first and then more rapidly.” slowly at first and then more rapidly.”

Kenneth S. Deffeyes, 2005Kenneth S. Deffeyes, 2005Beyond Oil: The view from Hubbert’s PeakBeyond Oil: The view from Hubbert’s Peak

One prediction of peak oil One prediction of peak oil productionproduction

(copyright, 2005. Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas)


• World PopulationWorld Population– Today: 6.5 billion Today: 6.5 billion – 2050: 9.1 billion estimated2050: 9.1 billion estimated– Population in developed countries virtually Population in developed countries virtually

unchanged between 2005 and 2050, at about 1.2 unchanged between 2005 and 2050, at about 1.2 billion billion

– Population of the 50 least developed countries is Population of the 50 least developed countries is projected to more than double, passing from 0.8 projected to more than double, passing from 0.8 billion in 2005 to 1.7 billion in 2050billion in 2005 to 1.7 billion in 2050

– In 2000-2005, world fertility level at 2.65 children In 2000-2005, world fertility level at 2.65 children per woman, about half the level it had in 1950-1955 per woman, about half the level it had in 1950-1955

World Population ProspectsThe 2004 Revision

US Population Division

Population of the world, 1950-2050, by projection variants

Mainly Urban Population Mainly Urban Population IncreasesIncreases


• PovertyPoverty– 2.8 billion people live on less than $2 a 2.8 billion people live on less than $2 a

dayday– 1.2 billion people less than $1 a day1.2 billion people less than $1 a day

•Marginal subsistenceMarginal subsistence

– 11 million children die annually of 11 million children die annually of preventable causespreventable causes•nutritionnutrition•sanitationsanitation•maternal health and educationmaternal health and education

(UNDP, 2002)


• Food Supply and ProductionFood Supply and Production– Growing population requires growing Growing population requires growing

food supplyfood supply– Increasing affluence leads populations Increasing affluence leads populations

to:to:•Higher quantities of food.Higher quantities of food.

•Higher food qualityHigher food quality– ““up the food chain”up the food chain”– More meats, fats, dairy productsMore meats, fats, dairy products

Food Production SystemFood Production System

• Food Production = Land area * Crop Food Production = Land area * Crop Yield*Efficiencies (Production, Yield*Efficiencies (Production, Processing, Distribution)Processing, Distribution)

• Crop Yield = f(Genetics, Nutrients, Crop Yield = f(Genetics, Nutrients, Water, Energy, Water, Energy, Management,Technology)Management,Technology)

• Food Consumption = Population * Food Consumption = Population * dietdiet

Undernourished Population (2000 - Undernourished Population (2000 -

2002)2002)

Food ChallengesFood Challenges

• Land availabilityLand availability


• Degraded Soils:Degraded Soils:– 2 billion ha soil 2 billion ha soil

degradeddegraded•15% of earth’s land 15% of earth’s land •Area larger than US Area larger than US

and Mexico and Mexico combinedcombined

– 305 million ha soil 305 million ha soil extremely degradedextremely degraded•Cannot be restoredCannot be restored

(UNEP, 2002)


• Can yield Can yield increases increases continue?continue?


• Can yield Can yield increases increases continue?continue?

Impact of Cities on World Impact of Cities on World EnvironmentEnvironment"People living in San Francisco or London may look at these "People living in San Francisco or London may look at these images of deforestation or melting Arctic ice, and wonder images of deforestation or melting Arctic ice, and wonder what it has to do with them. That these changes are the result what it has to do with them. That these changes are the result of other people's lifestyles and consumption habits hundreds of other people's lifestyles and consumption habits hundreds and thousands of kilometres away. But they would be wrong."and thousands of kilometres away. But they would be wrong."

Cities pull in huge amounts of resources including water, food, Cities pull in huge amounts of resources including water, food, timber, metals and people. They export large amounts of timber, metals and people. They export large amounts of wastes including household and industrial wastes, wastewater wastes including household and industrial wastes, wastewater and the gases linked with global warming. Thus their impacts and the gases linked with global warming. Thus their impacts stretch beyond their physical borders affecting countries, stretch beyond their physical borders affecting countries, regions and the planet as a whole."regions and the planet as a whole."

Klaus Toepfer, UNEP's Executive DirectorKlaus Toepfer, UNEP's Executive Directorat "One Planet Many People" Atlas Launchat "One Planet Many People" Atlas Launch

World Environment Day June , 2005World Environment Day June , 2005

IPAT EquationIPAT Equation

• Environmental Impact = Population x GDP/person Environmental Impact = Population x GDP/person x environmental impact/GDPx environmental impact/GDP

• Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyImpact = Population x Affluence x Technology• Factor Four and Factor Ten:Factor Four and Factor Ten:• Idea: Idea:

– Population will probably increase by 1.5 to 2 times over Population will probably increase by 1.5 to 2 times over the next 50 years.the next 50 years.

– Affluence will probably increase by 3 to 5 times.Affluence will probably increase by 3 to 5 times.– To maintain a constant Impact, the Technology term To maintain a constant Impact, the Technology term

must decrease by a factor between 4 and 10.must decrease by a factor between 4 and 10.

Next ClassNext Class

• Local view of these how global Local view of these how global challenges effect real people.challenges effect real people.

Views of the WorldViews of the World

• Tragedy of the CommonsTragedy of the Commons

Views of the WorldViews of the World

• Industrial organisms and Industrial Industrial organisms and Industrial EcologyEcology

SustainabilitySustainability

Means to SustainabilityMeans to Sustainability

• Industrial EcologyIndustrial Ecology• Design for EnvironmentDesign for Environment• DematerializationDematerialization• New Technological DevelopmentsNew Technological Developments

– Renewable energyRenewable energy– Information and communications Information and communications

technologytechnology– BiotechnologyBiotechnology– NanotechnologyNanotechnology

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Global Challenges Sustainable Engineering and International Development AE/CE/EE/ME 388x