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Global challenges in the nuclear sector, BREXATOM and
new build: what do these mean for nuclear energy’s role in
the UK in 2050?
Dame Sue Ion FREng FRS
Hon President
National Skills Academy for Nuclear (NSAN)
"Decarbonising UK energy:: Effective technology and
policy options for achieving a zero-carbon future”
• What works
• What doesn’t work
• What needs to be done
In terms of nuclear energy.........
As they say:- a week is a long time in politics –and we’ve had
several of them!......What next for the UK Nuclear Sector?
• Strengths
• Challenges and
• Opportunities
To understand what the future might hold..........
• We need to understand where our journey has led us so far
And
• Where we sit in the global nuclear world
Sodium-cooled fast reactors
DFR
PFR
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
Present
Gas-cooled reactorsMagnox
AGR
Water-cooled reactors
SGHWR
Sizewell B PWR
HTR 1965-1976
Civil nuclear power: UK
1959
1977
1974
1994
1967
1990
1995
1976
1956
Why BREXATOM Matters:
3 Major issues to deal with
• Safeguards and security: replacing Euratom with the ONR and IAEA
• The European Supply Agency and the need for Nuclear Cooperation Agreements/Treaties
• Research
Teresa May
Florence speech21 Sept 2017
What about Nuclear Energy and Medicine?
Nuclear medicine uses radiation to provide diagnostic information about
the functioning of a person's specific organs, or to treat them.
Diagnostic procedures using radioisotopes are now routine.
Radiotherapy can be used to treat some medical conditions, especially
cancer, using radiation to weaken or destroy particular targeted cells.
Over 40 million nuclear medicine procedures are performed each year,
and demand for radioisotopes is increasing at up to 5% annually.
Sterilization of medical equipment is also an important use of
radioisotopes.
BONE SCINTIGRAPHY with Tc99m pyrophosphate
Ant view Post view Ant view Post view
Normal images Multiple metastasis of prostate cancer
Y-90
• 430 plants in operation, in 31 countries
• Providing 11% of the world’s power
• 70 being built in 13 countries notably China, India, South Korea and Russia
• 179 on order or planned
• A further 308 proposed
• Major steps being taken in the US, France, and elsewhere
• Significant further capacity being created by plant upgrading. Plant Life Extensions maintaining capacity
Nuclear Fission Around the World
Source: World Nuclear Association & IAEA PRIS database, as at 2017
China
• Huge energy growth 37 operating
reactors
• 20 reactors under construction
• 5-6 fold growth planned by 2020
to at least 58GWe
– 4% of electricity
Then 150GWe by 2030 and
400 by 2050?
• NPT member, potential Asian
supplier
• Actively developing most
advanced systems
UK’s strength, challenge and opportunity Knowledge of many systems: Funding gap/ lack of direction: Failure to grasp opportunity?
Plus Many More! –Maybe!
Current Planned Potential
UK has Experience of Commercial Scale Reprocessing and the
Associated Development: will the closure of Thorp and the cessation of
commercial reprocessing be a wasted opportunity?
Mixer
Settlers
Pulsed
Columns
Sellafield
Reprocessing , Waste management
And decommissioning
Springfields
Fuel Manufacture
Capenhurst
Enrichment
From Full Fuel Cycle Industrial Experience to just Front End and Decommissioning?
Waste Management and Decommissioning
AREVA EPR
Westinghouse AP1000
Hitachi ABWR
The UK’s original ambitions for new build
Olkiluoto 3 Finland & Flamanville 3 France
Flamanville 3
Olkiluoto 3
Finland
Complex
Congested
Heavy
Non-repetitive
Enormous !
Hinkley Point C
Wylfa Newydd
Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Power station Japan
Unit 6: 3/11/92 Start of Construction:18/12/95 First criticality: 7/11/96 Commissioned
Unit 7: 1/7/93 Start of Construction: 1/11/96 First criticality: 2/7/97 Commissioned
Westinghouse AP1000
China AP1000 Plant ProgressSanmen site – August 2016
Photos © Sanmen Nuclear Power Company, Ltd.; Shandong Nuclear Power Company,
Ltd., All rights reserved.
Haiyang 1 – August 2016 Haiyang 2 – August 2016
Sanmen 1 – August 2016
Moorside
APR1400Barakah
UAE
Hualong OneChina
17%
2%
25%
13%2%
41%
Capital
Decommissioning
Operations and
Maintenance
Fuel
Spent Fuel Management
Financing
Costs dominated by capital required to construct and
timescale to finances before returns flow.
Pressurised Water Reactor Capital and Finance Costs
What about Research and Fusion?
Example of significant beneficial leverage from participation in EU project
International Thermonuclear
Experimental Reactor
(ITER), the world's largest
nuclear fusion reactor
47
Maximising value from JET in the UKDEMO: when to start?: how to finance?
Making ITER a success
Confining hot plasmas
Challenges
Blanket materials and tritium handlingCoping with neutron damage
Replacing key components
Controlling the plasma
Solving heat exhaust issues
Collaborating with Japan
Preparing for advanced ITER regimes
So what next.......? Where does that leave us as a sector?
• The nuclear sector deal
• SMR’s
• Future investment in next generation technology
"Decarbonising UK energy:: Effective technology and
policy options for achieving a zero-carbon future”
• What works- If we look overseas; fleet build
• What doesn’t work- The current free market
• What needs to be done..........
What do we need?
– Fleet effect: Building a fleet of one type of reactor will achieve NOAK, reduced
build times and reduced electricity costs and contribute to decarbonisation
targets
– Owning technology: Owning IP leads to more UK content, increased GVA, jobs
and exports – industrial strategy growth targets
– Finance costs: Government intervention in financing of new build can lead to
lower interest rates with significant reduction of electricity cost
– Control of build rate: Planning a ‘regular drumbeat’ of reactors leads to supply
chain efficiency and job continuity
– Future technology and programmes - creating IP ownership and exports
– Maximising economic benefit for the UK – enhancing supply chain efficiency
– Science and Innovation – introducing disruptive innovation from nuclear and
other sectors
Integrating into the Nuclear Sector Deal – Key Areas
Civil Defence
Cro
ss
-cu
ttin
g t
he
me
s
Sub Divisions
Future
TechnologyNew
Build
WM
&D
Defence
Skills
Science & Innovation
Regulation
Maximising Economic Benefit
Nuclear Sector Deal
Enabling alternative
financing and fleet effect.
Enhancing supply chain
efficiency
Creating IP ownership
and exports
Introducing disruptive
innovation from nuclear and other
sectors
What about Small Modular Reactors?
What’s happened to the proposed UK initiative?
What about Advanced Systems generally?
Opportunities – Small Modular Reactors• Drastically reduced cost of capital (compared to large reactors)
– Smaller designs maximise the extent to which construction can be undertaken in a
controllable factory setting using 21st century manufacturing techniques.
– Capital cost per item is greatly reduced.
– Shorter construction periods with lower risk.
• Conceived to be built in significant numbers enabling cost reduction to be achieved by
learning through doing (in contrast to small numbers of large reactors).
• SMRs can be built on sites not suitable for larger reactors.
• A flexible means of continuing to deliver a baseload of low carbon energy to complement
renewables.
• The easiest opportunity for UK manufacturers to gain entry to a reactor market.
– No established global suppliers
– Potential for a large global market
– Benefit of being first to market
• The SMRs that are closest to market are all PWRs – not novel technology,
though can be novel configuration in some cases.
1. Range of SMR designs
NuScale
CNEA
CAREM
Holtec
SMR160
Martingale
ThorCon
Moltex Energy
SSR
B&W
mPower
CNNC
ACP-100
KAERI
SMART
Thorium100
HTMR100Urenco
U-Battery
Westinghouse
SMR
X-Energy
Xe100(Not to scale)
Moltex Stable Salt Reactor
Heat Applications & Temperatures:
The Potential for Dual Mission Nuclear Plants
The Potential Market… > 600 Reactors?
Petroleum Refining (50-
100)Petrochemical
(150)
Fertilizers/Ammonia
(100+)
Coal-to-Liquids
(100s)Oil Sands/Shale
(200+)
MICRO Reactor Opportunity
U-Battery • Micro nuclear modular reactor.
• Provides local power and heat (800°C).
• Single unit 10MWt, 4MWe.
• Fits in volume of two squash courts.
• Overall installation has 60 year life.
• Gas cooled, helium in primary circuit, helium/nitrogen in secondary circuit driving turbine.
• Inherently safe TRISO fuel (up to 20% enriched 235-U).
• Fuel cartridge lasts five years.
• Spent fuel cartridge fits in international standard Excellox spent fuel transport flask.
National Nuclear R&D Programme
Fuel
2020 2025
Advanced
Reactors
Recycle
Technology
Waste
Management
Fuel
Research
Facilities
Advanced Fuel
Pin ready for
Irradiation
Accident tolerant
and more efficient
fuel commercialised
UK is key
partner in the
development of
advanced systems
UK to be a
supplier of
significant reactor
components
Recycle
Research
Facilities
Lab scale of a safe,
economic and efficient
advanced recycle tech.
using surrogate materials
Lab scale of a safe,
economic and efficient
advanced recycle tech.
using spent fuel
Waste
Research
Facilities
Develop
technologies for
Advanced recycle
Demonstrate
immobilisation
technology leading
to hot cell testing
Gen IV
Reactors
UK is key
partner in the
development of
advanced systems
National Nuclear R&D Programme
Modelling
Simulation
2020 2025
Control and
Instrumentation
Robotics
Validation &
Verification
Integrated
Modelling
and simulation
capability
New codes that
make the UK a
leading nation
Activities completed
that support the uptake
of modern I&C within
industry and the regulator
Developed Advanced Robotics
Automated Systems
and Remote Handling
Capability
World class test facilities
supporting validation and
verification est.
Thermal Hydraulics and Physics
Testing
Gen IV
Reactors
Develop Advanced C&I Systems
National Nuclear R&D Programme
Strategic
Assessments
2020 2025
Public
Engagement
Technology
Watch
Developed and demonstrated
appropriate tools to evaluate potential
fuel cycles to shape future research
programmes
Tools identified to
communicate
effectively
with the public
Consistently review and evaluate potential technologies which
show benefits to the UK
Tools and
Techniques routinely
used to engage
public Gen IV
Reactors
We can be World Class and Top Table again
but not if we pursue the current policy
World-Leading Research Facilities
Advanced Manufacturing Research and Innovation
NNLCentral Laboratory
What needs to be done?
• Use less bits
• Take less time
• Build a fleet of the same design
• Borrow the money cheaply
• Jump a technology generation
Thankyou. Questions?
Hornsea 2 Windfarm
£57.50/MWhstrike price
1386MW capacity3 Phases
6-15MW Turbines
Hornsea 1 Windfarm
£140/MWhStrike price1200MW capacity:174 7MW turbines: 407 km²
Assumed generic load factor of
42%