GHG projections of Romania-How much is available? April 30 Bucharest, Romania Gamze Celikyilmaz-Aydemir Climate Change Department The Regional Environmental Center for Central and Eastern Europe GHG Emission Trends and Projections in Europe in 2008 In cooperation with ETC-EEA Covering all the European countries Web page:publications/eea_report_20 08_5 OUTLINE Base year GHG emissions and Kyoto target GHG Emission trends by sector GHG Projections Available AAUs for carbon market for the first commitment period. Conclusions Base year GHG Emissions and Kyoto target Kyoto base year is 1989 for all gases Initial Report Mt CO 2 eq Expert review Mt CO 2 eq Kyoto Target: -8% by x 92% = Mt CO 2 eq GHG EMISSION TRENDS BY SECTOR Source: Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development, 2007 Difference in base year emissions 2005 vs Source: Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development, 2007 GHG by sectors in 2004 fossil fuels combustion domestic energy sources as lignite and hard coal Fuel switch and increased EE. methane emissions from agriculture and waste sectors possible. Source: Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development, 2007 GHG PROJECTIONS WEM and WAM projections for % and 35.3 % less then base year Base year emissions under the KP 2010 projections WEM 2010 projections WAM Total GHG emissions (excluding LULUCF) Mt CO 2 -eq Mt CO 2 -eq Mt CO 2 -eq. 100 %68.4%64.7% Source: European Environmental Agency, 2008 Projections for 2015 and 2020 based on WAM Kyoto compliance even in 2020 But GHG emissions further accelerating Source: European Energy Agency, 2008 GIS in Romania Why GIS in Romania? A strong decline in the GHG emissions and has a possible big surplus in Romania Advantage of GIS: Optional instrument to secure the environmental benefits of the sales of AAUs flexibility in project eligibility and approval flexibility in designing financial mechanisms for project support. How much AAUs can be sold? AA = 1,299,349,047 tCO 2 -eq. Commitment Period Reserve (most recent inventory bases) 5 x GHG emissions in 2004 = 800,298,657 tCO 2 -eq Remaining AAUs 1,299,349, ,298,657 = 499,050,390 tCO 2 -eq. Why to be careful with AAUs? Energy sector increase since 1999 Increase in the investments since 2004 (EU membership) global economic crisis is TEMPORARY Energy and agriculture sectors are projected to increase GHG emission for the GHG emmission calculation models to be improved Projection models to be improved Why to be careful with AAUs? New methodologies/models are implemented Projection calculations to be revised based on new emission calculation & projection models Overselling the AAUs may jeopardize the compliance with Kyoto targets Summary and Conclusion WEM will be enough for 2012 commitment Projected emissions for 2015 and 2020 will remain still very much below the Kyoto target. A high potential of further GHG reduction High potential for GIS projects However, there is a potential of accelerated increase of emissions Changes in the models and methodologies for projections should be taken into account Compliance to Kyoto targets should be the priority Thank you Gamze Celikyilmaz-Aydemir Climate Change Department Regional Environmental Center for Central and Eastern Europe