97
Andreas E. Kyprianou Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory Draft May 15, 2013 Springer

Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    4

  • Download
    1

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

Andreas E. Kyprianou

Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory

Draft

May 15, 2013

Springer

Page 2: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around
Page 3: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

Preface

These notes were developed whilst giving a graduate lecture course (Nachdiplomvor-lesung) at the Forschungsinstitut fur Mathematik, ETH Zurich. The title of theselecture notes may come as surprise to some readers as, to date, the term Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory is not widely used. One might be more tempted to simply usethe title Ruin theory for Cramer-Lundberg models instead. However, my objectivehere is to focus on the recent interaction between a large body of research literature,spear-headed by Hans–Ulrich Gerber and Elias Shiu, concerning ever more sophis-ticated questions around the event of ruin for the classical Cramer-Lundberg surplusprocess, and the parallel evolution of the fluctuation theory of Levy processes. Thefusion of these two fields has provided economies to proofs of older results, as wellas pushing much further and faster classical theory into what one might describeas exotic ruin theory. That is to say, the study of ruinous scenarios which involveperturbations to the surplus coming from dividend payments that have a historicalpath dependence. These notes keep to the Cramer–Lundberg setting. However, thetext has been written in a form that appeals to straightforward and accessible proofs,which take advantage, as much as possible, of the the fact that Cramer–Lundbergprocesses have stationary and independent increments and no upward jumps.

I would like to thank Paul Embrechts for the invitation to spend six months in atthe FIM and the opportunity to present this material. I would also like to thank theattendees of the course in Zurich for their comments.

Zurich, Andreas E. KyprianouNovember, 2013

v

Page 4: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around
Page 5: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

Contents

1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.2 The classical problem of ruin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31.3 Gerber–Shiu expected discounted penalty functions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41.4 Exotic Gerber–Shiu theory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51.5 Comments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

2 The Esscher martingale and the maximum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92.1 Laplace exponent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92.2 First exponential martingale . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112.3 Esscher transform . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122.4 Distribution of the maximum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142.5 Comments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

3 The Kella-Whitt martingale and the minimum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process reflected in its supremum . . . . . . . . . 173.2 A useful Poisson integral . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183.3 Second exponential martingale . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213.4 Duality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 223.5 Distribution of the minimum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 233.6 The long term behaviour . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 243.7 Comments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25

4 Scale functions and ruin probabilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 274.1 Scale functions and the probability of ruin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 274.2 Connection with the Pollaczek–Khintchine formula . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 304.3 Gambler’s ruin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 334.4 Comments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35

vii

Page 6: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

viii Contents

5 The Gerber–Shiu measure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 375.1 Decomposing paths at the minimum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 375.2 Resolvent densities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 385.3 More on Poisson integrals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 405.4 Gerber–Shiu measure and gambler’s ruin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 415.5 Comments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42

6 Reflection strategies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 456.1 Perpetuities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 466.2 Decomposing paths at the maximum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 476.3 Derivative of the scale function . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 506.4 Net-present-value of dividends at ruin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 526.5 Comments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53

7 Perturbation-at-maxima strategies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 557.1 Re-hung excursions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 557.2 Marked Poisson process revisited . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 577.3 Gambler’s ruin for the perturbed process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 597.4 Continuous ruin with heavy tax . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 617.5 Net-present-value of tax . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 627.6 Comments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63

8 Refraction strategies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 658.1 Pathwise existence and uniqueness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 658.2 Gambler’s ruin and resolvent density . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 678.3 Resolvent density with ruin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 738.4 Comments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75

9 Concluding discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 779.1 Mixed-exponential jumps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 779.2 Spectrally negative Levy processes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 799.3 Analytic properties of scale functions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 829.4 Engineered scale functions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 849.5 Comments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88

References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89

Page 7: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

Chapter 1Introduction

In this brief introductory chapter, we shall introduce the basic context of these lec-ture notes. In particular, we shall explain what we understand by so-called Gerber–Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory.

1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process

The beginnings of ruin theory is based around a very basic model for the evolutionof the wealth, or surplus, of an insurance company, known as the Cramer–Lundbergprocess. In the classical model, the insurance company is assumed to collect pre-miums at a constant rate c > 0, whereas claims arrive successively according tothe times of a Poisson process, henceforth denoted by N = Nt : t ≥ 0, with rateλ > 0. These claims, indexed in order of appearance ξi : i = 1,2, · · ·, are inde-pendent and identically distributed1 with common distribution F , which is concen-trated on (0,∞). The dynamics of the Cramer–Lundberg process are described byX = Xt : t ≥ 0, where

Xt = ct−Nt

∑i=1

ξi, t ≥ 0. (1.1)

Here, we use standard notation in that a sum of the form ∑0i=1 · is understood

to be equal to zero. We assume that X is defined on a filtered probability space(Ω ,F,F ,P), where F := Ft : t ≥ 0 the natural filtration generated by X . Whenthe initial surplus of our insurance company is valued at x > 0, we may consider theevolution of the surplus to follow the dynamics of x+X under P.

The Cramer–Lundberg process, (X ,P), is nothing more than a compound Poissonprocess with negative jumps and positive drift. Accordingly, it is easy to verify thatit conforms to the definition of a so-called Levy process, given below.

1 Henceforth written i.i.d. for short.

1

Page 8: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

2 1 Introduction

Definition 1.1. A process X = Xt : t ≥ 0 with law P is said to be a Levy processif it possesses the following properties:

(i) The paths of X are P-almost surely right-continuous with left limits.(ii) P(X0 = 0) = 1.(iii) For 0≤ s≤ t, Xt −Xs is equal in distribution to Xt−s.(iv) For all n ∈ N and 0 ≤ s1 ≤ t1 ≤ s2 ≤ t2 ≤ ·· · ≤ sn ≤ tn < ∞, the increments

Xti −Xsi , i = 1, · · · ,n, are independent.

Whilst our computations in this text will largely remain within the confines ofthe Cramer–Lundberg model, we shall, as much as possible, appeal to mathematicalreasoning which is handed down from the general theory of Levy process. Specif-ically, our analysis will predominantly appeal to martingale theory as well as ex-cursion theory. The latter of these two concerns the decomposition of the path of Xinto a sequence of sojourns from its running maximum or indeed from its runningminimum.

Many of the arguments we give will apply, either directly, or with minor mod-ification, into the setting of general spectrally negative Levy processes. These areLevy processes which do not experience positive jumps.2 In the forthcoming chap-ters, we have deliberately stepped back from treating the case of general spectrallynegative Levy processes in order to keep the presentation as mathematically light aspossible, without disguising the full strength of the arguments that lie underneath.Nonetheless, at the very end, in Chapter 9, we will spend a little time making theconnection with the general spectrally negative setting.

As a Levy process, it is well understood that X is a strong Markov3 processand, henceforth, we shall prefer to work with the probabilities Px : x ∈ R, where,thanks to spatial homogeneity, for x ∈ R, (X ,Px) is equal in law x+X under P. Forconvenience, we shall always prefer to write P instead of P0.

Recall that τ is an stopping time with respect to F if and only if, for all t ≥ 0,τ ≤ t ∈Ft . Moreover, for each stopping time, τ , we associate the sigma algebra

Fτ := A ∈F : A∩τ ≤ t ∈Ft for all t ≥ 0.

(Note, it is a simple exercise to verify that Fτ is a sigma algebra.) The standard wayof expressing the strong Markov property for a one-dimensional process such as Xis as follows. For any Borel set B, on τ < ∞,

P(Xτ+s ∈ B|Fτ) = P(Xτ+s ∈ B|σ(Xτ)) = h(Xτ ,s),

where h(x,s) = Px(Xs ∈ B). On account of the fact that X has stationary and in-dependent increments, we may also state the strong Markov property in a slightlyrefined form.

2 In the definition of a spectrally negative Levy processes, we exclude the uninteresting cases ofLevy processes with no positive jumps and monotone paths.3 We assume that the reader is familiar with the basic theory of Markov processes. In particular,the use of the (strong) Markov properties.

Page 9: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

1.2 The classical problem of ruin 3

Theorem 1.2. Suppose that τ is a stopping time. Define on τ < ∞ the processX = Xt : t ≥ 0, where

Xt = Xτ+t −Xτ , t ≥ 0.

Then, on the event τ < ∞, the process X is independent of Fτ and has the samelaw as X.

1.2 The classical problem of ruin

Financial ruin in the Cramer–Lundberg model (or just ruin for short) will occur ifthe surplus of the insurance company drops below zero. Since this will happen withprobability one if P(liminft↑∞ Xt = −∞) = 1, it is usual to impose an additionalassumption that

limt↑∞

Xt = ∞. (1.2)

Write µ =∫(0,∞) xF(dx)> 0 for the common mean of the i.i.d. claim sizes ξi : i =

1,2, · · ·. A sufficient condition to guarantee (1.2) is that

c−λ µ > 0, (1.3)

the so-called security loading condition. To see why, note that the Strong Law ofLarge Numbers for Poisson processes, which states that limt↑∞ Nt/t = λ a.s., andthe obvious fact that limt↑∞ Nt = ∞ a.s. imply that

limt↑∞

Xt

t= lim

t↑∞

(xt+c− Nt

t∑

Nti=1 ξi

Nt

)= E(X1) = c−λ µ > 0 a.s., (1.4)

from which (1.2) follows. We shall see later that (1.3) is also a necessary conditionfor (1.2). Note that (1.3) also implies that µ < ∞.

Under the security loading condition, it follows that ruin will occur only withprobability less than one. The most basic question that one can therefore ask undersuch circumstances is: what is the probability of ruin when the initial surplus isequal to x > 0? This involves giving an expression for Px(τ

−0 < ∞), where

τ−0 := inft > 0 : Xt < 0.

The Pollaczek–Khintchine formula does just this.

Theorem 1.3 (Pollaczek–Khintchine formula). Suppose that λ µ/c < 1. For allx≥ 0,

1−Px(τ−0 < ∞) = (1−ρ) ∑

k≥0ρ

kη∗k (x), (1.5)

whereρ = λ µ/c and η(x) =

∫ x

0[1−F(y)]dy.

Page 10: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

4 1 Introduction

It is not our intention to dwell on this formula at this point in time, although weshall re-derive it in due course later in this text. This classical result and its connec-tion to renewal theory are the inspiration behind a whole body of research literatureaddressing more elaborate questions concerning the ruin problem. Our aim in thistext is to give an overview of the state of the art in this respect. Amongst the largenumber of names active in this field, one may note, in particular, the many andvaried contributions of Hans Gerber and Elias Shiu. In recognition of their founda-tional work, we accordingly refer to the collective results that we present here asGerber-Shiu risk theory.

1.3 Gerber–Shiu expected discounted penalty functions

Following Theorem 1.3, an obvious direction in which to turn one’s attention islooking at the the joint distribution of τ

−0 , −X

τ−0

and Xτ−0 −

. That is to say, the jointlaw of the time of ruin, the deficit at ruin and the wealth prior to ruin. In their well-cited paper of 19984, Gerber and Shiu introduce the so-called expected discountedpenalty function as follows. Suppose that f : (0,∞)2→ [0,∞) is any bounded, mea-surable function. Then the associated expected discounted penalty function withforce of interest q≥ 0 when the initial surplus is equal to x≥ 0 in value is given by

φ f (x,q) = Ex

[e−qτ

−0 f (−X

τ−0,X

τ−0 −

)1(τ−0 <∞)

].

Ultimately, one is really interested in, what we call here, the Gerber–Shiu measure.That is, the exponentially discounted joint law of the pair (−X

τ−0,X

τ−0 −

). Indeed,writing

K(q)(x,dy,dz) = Ex

[e−qτ

−0 ;−X

τ−0∈ dy, X

τ−0 −∈ dz, τ

−0 < ∞

](1.6)

for the Gerber–Shiu measure one notes the simple relation

φ f (x,q) =∫(0,∞)

∫(0,∞)

f (y,z)K(q)(x,dy,dz).

The expected discounted penalty function is now a well-studied object and thereare many different ways to develop the expression on the right hand side of (1.6). Asa consequence of the Poissonian path decomposition, which will drive many of thecomputations that we are ultimately interested in, we shall show how the Gerber–Shiu measure can be written in terms of so-called scale functions. Scale functionsturn out to be a natural family of functions with which one may develop many ofthe identities around the event of ruin that we are interested in. We shall spend quitesome time discussing the recent theory of scale functions later on in this text.

4 See the comments at the end of this chapter.

Page 11: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

1.4 Exotic Gerber–Shiu theory 5

1.4 Exotic Gerber–Shiu theory

Again inspired by foundational work of Gerber and Shiu, and indeed many others,we shall also look at variants of the classical ruin problem in the setting that theCramer–Lundberg process undergoes perturbations in its trajectory on account ofpay-outs, typically due to dividend payments or taxation. Three specific cases thatwill interest us are the following.

Reflection strategies: An adaptation of the classical ruin problem, introduced byBruno de Finetti in 1957, is to consider the continuous payment of dividends outof the surplus process to hypothetical share holders. Naturally, for a given streamof dividend payments, this will continuously change the net value of the surplusprocess and the problem of ruin will look quite different. Indeed, the event of ruinwill be highly dependent on the choice of dividend payments. We are interested infinding an optimal way paying out of dividends such as to optimise the expectednet present value of the total income of the shareholders, under force of interest,from time zero until ruin. The optimisation is made over an appropriate class of div-idend strategies. Mathematically speaking, de Finetti’s dividend problem amountsto solving a control problem which we reproduce here.

Let ξ = ξt : t ≥ 0 with ξ0 = 0 be a dividend strategy, consisting of a left-continuous non-negative non-decreasing process adapted to the filtration, Ft : t ≥0, of X . The quantity ξt thus represents the cumulative dividends paid out up totime t ≥ 0 by the insurance company whose risk-process is modelled by X . Theaggregate, or controlled, value of the risk process when taking account of dividendstrategy ξ is thus Uξ = Uξ

t : t ≥ 0 where Uξ

t = Xt − ξt , t ≥ 0. An additionalconstraint on ξ is that Lξ

t+− Lξ

t ≤ maxUξ

t ,0 for t ≥ 0 (i.e. lump sum dividendpayments are always smaller than the available reserves).

Let Ξ be the family of dividend strategies as outlined in the previous paragraphand, for each ξ ∈Ξ , write σξ = inft > 0 : Uξ

t < 0 for the time at which ruin occursfor the controlled risk process. The expected net present value, with discounting atrate q ≥ 0, associated to the dividend policy ξ when the risk process has initialcapital x≥ 0 is given by

vξ (x) = Ex

(∫σξ

0e−qtdξt

).

De Finetti’s dividend problem consists of solving the stochastic control problem

v∗(x) := supξ∈Ξ

vξ (x) x≥ 0. (1.7)

That is to say, if it exists, to establish a strategy, ξ ∗ ∈ Ξ , such that v∗ = vξ ∗ .We shall refrain from giving a complete account of their findings, other than to

say that under appropriate conditions on the jump distribution, F , of the Cramer–Lundberg process, X , the optimal strategy consists of a so-called reflection strategy.

Page 12: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

6 1 Introduction

Specifically, there exists an a ∈ [0,∞) such that

ξ∗t = (a∨X t)−a t ≥ 0.

In that case, the ξ ∗-controlled risk process, say U∗ = U∗t : t ≥ 0, is identical to theprocess a−Yt : t ≥ 0 under Px where

Yt = (a∨X t)−Xt , t ≥ 0,

and X t = sups≤t Xs is the running supremum of the Levy insurance risk process.

Refraction strategies: An adaptation of the optimal control problem deals with thecase that optimality is sought in a subclass, say Ξα , of the admissible strategies Ξ .Specifically, Ξα denotes the set of dividend strategies ξ ∈ Ξ such that

ξt =∫ t

0`sds, t ≥ 0,

where ` = `t : t ≥ 0 is uniformly bounded by some constant, say α > 0. That isto say, dividend strategies which are absolutely continuous with uniformly boundeddensity.

Again, we refrain from going into the details of their findings, other than to saythat under appropriate conditions the optimal strategy, ξ α = ξ α

t : t ≥ 0 in Ξα turnsout to satisify

ξαt = α

∫ t

01(Zs>b)ds, t ≥ 0,

for some b≥ 0, where Z = Zt : t ≥ 0 is the controlled Levy risk process X −ξ α .The pair (Z,ξ α) cannot be expressed autonomously and we are forced to workwithin the confines of the stochastic differential equation

Zt = Xt −α

∫ t

01(Zs>b)ds, t ≥ 0. (1.8)

For reasons that we shall elaborate on later, the process in (8.1) is called a refractedLevy process.

Perturbation-at-maxima strategies: Another way of perturbing the path of ourCramer–Lundberg is by forcing payments from the surplus at times that it attainsnew maxima. This may be be interpreted, for example, as tax payments. To this end,consider the process

Ut = Xt −∫(0,t]

γ(Xu)dXu, t ≥ 0, (1.9)

where γ : [0,∞)→ [0,∞) satisfying appropriate conditions. The presentation weshall give here follows the last two references.

We distinguish two regimes, light- and heavy-tax regimes. The first correspondsto the case that γ : [0,∞)→ [0,1) and the second to the case that γ : [0,∞)→ (1,∞).

Page 13: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

1.5 Comments 7

The light tax regime has a similar flavour to paying dividends at a weaker rate thana reflection strategy. In contrast, the heavy-tax regime is equivalent to paying divi-dends at a much stronger rate that a reflection strategy. A little thought reveals thatthe dividing case that γ(x) = 1(x≥a) corresponds precisely to a reflection strategy.

For each of the three scenarios described above, questions concerning the way inwhich ruin occurs remain just as pertinent as for the case of the Cramer–Lundbergprocess. In addition, we are also interested in the distribution of the net presentvalue of payments made out of the surplus process until ruin. For example in thecase of reflection strategies, with a force of interest equal to q ≥ 0, this boils downto understanding the distribution of∫

σa

0e−qt1(X t≥x)dX t ,

whereσa = inft > 0 : (x∨X t)−Xt > a.

1.5 Comments

For more on the standard model for an insurance risk process as described in Sect.1.1, see Lundberg (1903), Cramer (1994a) and Cramer (1994b). See also, for ex-ample, the books of Embrechts et al. (1997) and Dickson (2010) to name but a fewstandard texts on the classical theory.

Within the setting of the classical Cramer–Lundberg model, Gerber and Shiu(1998) introduced the expected discounted penalty function. See also Gerber andShiu (1997). It has been widely studied since with too many references to list here.The special issue, in volume 46, of the journal Insurance: Mathematics and Eco-nomics contains a selection of papers focused on the Gerber–Shiu expected dis-counted penalty function, with many further references therein.

An adaptation of the classical ruin problem was introduced within the setting of adiscrete time insurance risk process by de Finetti (1957) in which dividends are paidout to share holders up to the moment of ruin, resulting in a control problem (1.7).This control problem was considered in framework of Cramer–Lundberg processesby Gerber (1969) and then, after a large gap, by Azcue and Muler (2005). Thereaftera string of articles, each one successively improving on the previous one in rapidsuccession; see Avram et al. (2007), Loeffen (2008), Kyprianou et al. (2010) andLoeffen and Renaud (2010). The variant of (1.7) resulting in refraction strategieswas studied by Jeanblanc and Shiryaev (1995) and Asmussen and Taksar (1997) inthe diffusive setting and Gerber (2006b) and Kyprianou et al. (2012) in the Cramer–Lundberg setting.

In the setting of the classical Cramer–Lundberg risk insurance model, Albrecherand Hipp (2007) introduced the idea of tax payments as in (1.9) for the case that γ

Page 14: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

8 1 Introduction

is a constant in (0,1). This model was quickly generalised more general settings byAlbrecher et al. (2008), Kyprianou and Zhou (2009) and Kyprianou and Ott (2012).

Page 15: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

Chapter 2The Esscher martingale and the maximum

In this chapter, we shall introduce the first of our two key martingales and considertwo immediate applications. In the first application we will use the martingale toconstruct a change of measure with respect to P and thereby consider the dynamicsof X under the new law. In the second application, we shall use the martingale tostudy the law of the process X = X t : t ≥ 0, where

X t := sups≤t

Xs, t ≥ 0. (2.1)

In particular, we shall discover that the position of the trajectory of X when sam-pled at an independent and exponentially distributed time is again exponentiallydistributed.

2.1 Laplace exponent

A key quantity in the forthcoming analysis is the Laplace exponent of the Cramer-Lundberg process, whose definition falls out of the following lemma.

Lemma 2.1. For all θ ≥ 0 and t ≥ 0,

E(eθXt ) = exp−ψ(θ)t,

whereψ(θ) := cθ −λ

∫(0,∞)

(1− e−θx)F(dx). (2.2)

Proof. Given the definition (1.1) one easily sees that it suffices to prove that

E(

e−θ ∑Nti=1 ξi

)= exp

−λ t

∫(0,∞)

(1− e−θx)F(dx), (2.3)

9

Page 16: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

10 2 The Esscher martingale and the maximum

for θ , t ≥ 0. However the equality (2.3) is the result of conditioning the expecta-tion on its left-hand-side on Nt , which is independent of ξi : i ≥ 1 and Poissondistributed with rate λ t, to get

E(

e−θ ∑Nti=1 ξi

)=

∑n=0

E(

e−θ ∑ni=1 ξi

)e−λ t (λ t)n

n!

=∞

∑n=0

[E(e−θξ1)]ne−λ t (λ t)n

n!

= exp−λ t(1−E(e−θξ1))

= exp

−λ t

∫(0,∞)

(1− e−θx)F(dx),

for all θ , t ≥ 0. Note, in particular, the integral in the final equality is trivially finiteon account of the fact that F is a probability distribution.

The Laplace exponent (2.2) is an important way of identifying the characteris-tics of Cramer-Lundberg processes. The following theorem, which we refrain fromproving, makes this clear.

Theorem 2.2. Any Levy process with no positive jumps whose Laplace exponentagrees with (2.2) on [0,∞) must be equal in law to the Cramer-Lundberg processwith premium rate c, arrival rate of claims λ and claim distribution F.

We are interested in the shape of this Laplace exponent. Straightforward differ-entiation, with the help of the Dominated Convergence Theorem, tells us that, forall θ > 0,

ψ′′(θ) = λ

∫(0,∞)

x2e−θxF(dx)> 0,

which in turn implies that ψ is strictly convex on (0,∞). Integration by parts allowsus to write

ψ(θ) = cθ −λθ

∫(0,∞)

e−θxF(x)dx, θ ≥ 0, (2.4)

where we recall that F(x)= 1−F(x), x≥ 0. This representation allows us to deduce,moreover, that

limθ→∞

ψ(θ)

θ= c

andψ′(0+) = c−

∫(0,∞)

xF(dx),

where the left-hand-side is the right derivative of ψ at the origin and we understandthe right-hand-side to be equal to−∞ in the case that

∫(0,∞) xF(dx) =∞. In particular

we see thatE(X1) = lim

θ→0E(X1eθX1) = ψ

′(0+) ∈ [−∞,∞),

Page 17: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

2.2 First exponential martingale 11

Fig. 2.1 Two examples of ψ , the Laplace exponent of a Cramer-Lundberg process, correspondingto the cases ψ ′(0+)< 0 and ψ ′(0+)≥ 0, respectively.

where, again, we have used the the Dominated Convergence Theorem to justifythe first equality above. The net profit condition discussed in Sect. 1.1 can thusotherwise be expressed simply as ψ ′(0+)> 0.

A quantity which will also repeatedly appear in our computations is the rightinverse of ψ . That is,

Φ(q) := supθ ≥ 0 : ψ(θ) = q, (2.5)

for q ≥ 0. Thanks to the strict convexity of ψ , we can say that there is at mostone solution to the equation ψ(θ) = q, when q > 0, and at most two when q = 0.The number of solutions in the latter of these two cases depends on the value ofψ ′(0+). Indeed, when ψ ′(0+) ≥ 0, then θ = 0 is the only solution to ψ(θ) = 0.When ψ ′(0+) < 0, there are two solutions, one at θ = 0 and a second solution, in(0,∞), which, by definition, gives the value of Φ(0). See Fig. 2.1.

2.2 First exponential martingale

Define, for each β > 0, process E (β ) = Et(β ) : t ≥ 0, where

Et(β ) := eβXt−ψ(β )t , t ≥ 0. (2.6)

Theorem 2.3. For each β > 0, the process E (β ) is a P-martingale with respect toF.

Page 18: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

12 2 The Esscher martingale and the maximum

Proof. Note that, for each β ≥ 0, the process E (β ) is F-adapted. With this in hand, itsuffices to check that, for all β ,s, t ≥ 0, E[Et+s(β )|Ft ] = Et(β ). Indeed, on accountof positivity, this would immediately show that E[|Et(β )|]< ∞, for all t ≥ 0.

However, thanks to stationary and independent increments, F -adaptedness aswell as Lemma 2.1, for all β ,s, t ≥ 0,

E[Et+s(β )|Ft ] = Es(β )E[

eβ (Xt−Xs)−ψ(β )(t−s)∣∣∣Ft

]= Es(β )E[eβXt−s ]e−ψ(β )(t−s)

= Es(β )

and the proof is complete.

We call this martingale the Esscher martingale on account of its connection tothe exponential change of measure, discussed in the next section, which originatesfrom the work of Esscher. See Sect. 2.5 for further historial details.

2.3 Esscher transform

Fix β > 0 and x ∈ R. Since E (β ) is a mean-one martingale, it may be used toperform a change of measure on (X ,Px) via

dPβx

dPx

∣∣∣∣∣Ft

=Et(β )

E0(β )= eβ (Xt−x)−ψ(β )t , t ≥ 0. (2.7)

In the special case that x = 0 we shall write Pβ in place of Pβ

0 . Since the process Xunder Px may be written as x+X under P, it is not difficult to see that the change ofmeasure on (X ,Px) is equivalent to the change of measure on (X ,P). Also knownas the Esscher transform, (2.7) alters the law of X and it is important to understandthe dynamics of X under Pβ .

Theorem 2.4. Fix β > 0. Then the process (X ,Pβ ) is equal in law to a Cramer-Lundberg process with premium rate c and claims that arrive at rate λm(β )and that are distributed according to the probability measure e−βxF(dx)/m(β ) on(0,∞), where m(β ) =

∫(0,∞) e−βxF(dx). Said another way, the process (X ,Pβ ) is

equal in law to Xβ , where Xβ := Xβ

t : t ≥ 0 is a Cramer-Lundberg process withLaplace exponent

ψβ (θ) := ψ(θ +β )−ψ(β ) θ ≥ 0.

Proof. For all, 0≤ s≤ t ≤ u < ∞, θ ≥ 0 and A ∈Fs, we have with the help of thestationary and independent increments of (X ,P),

Page 19: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

2.3 Esscher transform 13

[1Aeθ(Xu−Xt )

]= E

[1AeβXt−ψ(β )te(θ+β )(Xu−Xt )

]e−ψ(β )(u−t)

= E[1AeβXt−ψ(β )t

]E[e(θ+β )Xu−t

]e−ψ(β )(u−t)

= E[1AeβXs−ψ(β )s

]Eeψ(β+θ)(u−t)e−ψ(β )(u−t)

= Pβ (A)eψβ (θ)(u−t), (2.8)

where in the second equality we have condition on Ft and in the third equality wehave conditioned on Fs and used the martingale property of E (β ).

Using a straightforward argument by induction, it follows from (2.8) that, for alln ∈ N, 0≤ s1 ≤ t1 ≤ ·· · ≤ sn ≤ tn < ∞ and θ1, · · · ,θn ≥ 0,

[n

∏j=1

eθ j(Xt j−Xs j )

]=

n

∏j=1

eψβ (θ j)(t j−s j). (2.9)

Moreover, a brief computation shows that

ψβ (θ) = cθ −λm(β )∫(0,∞)

(1− e−θx)e−βx

m(β )F(dx), θ ≥ 0.

Coupled with (2.9), this shows that (X ,Pβ ) has stationary and independent incre-ments, which are equal in law to those of a Cramer-Lundberg process with premiumrate c, arrival rate of claims λm(β ) and distribution of claims e−βxF(dx)/m(β ).Since the measures Pβ and P are equivalent on Ft , for all t ≥ 0, then the prop-erty that X has paths that are almost surely right-continuous with left limits and nopositive jumps on [0, t] carries over to the measure Pβ . Finally, taking note of The-orem 2.2, it follows that (X ,Pβ ), which we now know is a spectrally negative Levyprocess, has the law of the aforementioned Cramer-Lundberg process.

The Esscher transform may also be formulated at stopping times.

Corollary 2.5. Under the conditions of Theorem 2.4, if τ is an F-stopping time then

dPβ

dP

∣∣∣∣∣Fτ

= Eτ(β ) on τ < ∞.

Said another way, for all A ∈Fτ , we have

Pβ (A, τ < ∞) = E(1(A,τ<∞)Eτ(β )).

Proof. By definition if A ∈Fτ , then A∩τ ≤ t ∈Ft . Hence

Pβ (A∩τ ≤ t) = E(Et(β )1(A,τ≤t))

= E(1(A,τ≤t)E(Et(β )|Fτ))

= E(Eτ(β )1(A,τ≤t)),

Page 20: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

14 2 The Esscher martingale and the maximum

where in the third equality we have used the Strong Markov Property as well as themartingale property for E (β ). Now taking limits as t ↑∞, the result follows with thehelp of the Monotone Convergence Theorem.

2.4 Distribution of the maximum

Our first result here is to use the Esscher transform to characterise the law of thefirst passage times

τ+x := inft > 0 : Xt > x,

for x ≥ 0, and subsequently the law of the running maximum when sampled at anindependent and exponentially distributed time.

Theorem 2.6. For q≥ 0,

E(e−qτ+x 1(τ+x <∞)) = e−Φ(q)x,

where we recall that Φ(q) is given by (2.5).

Proof. Fix q > 0. Using the fact that X has no positive jumps, it must follow thatx = X

τ+x

on τ+x < ∞. Note, with the help of the Strong Markov Property that,

E(eΦ(q)Xt−qt |Fτ+x)

= 1(τ+x ≥t)eΦ(q)Xt−qt +1(τ+x <t)e

Φ(q)x−qτ+x E(eΦ(q)(Xt−Xτ+x)−q(t−τ+x )|F

τ+x),

= eΦ(q)Xt∧τ

+x−q(t∧τ+x )

where in the final equality we have used the fact that E(Et(Φ(q))) = 1 for all t ≥ 0.Taking expectations again we have

E(eΦ(q)Xt∧τ+x−q(t∧τ+x )

) = 1.

Noting that the expression in the latter expectation is bounded above by eΦ(q)x, anapplication of dominated convergence yields

E(eΦ(q)x−qτ+x 1(τ+x <∞)) = 1

which is equivalent to the statement of the theorem.

We recover the promised distributional information about the maximum process(3.1) in the next corollary. In its statement, we understand an exponential randomvariable with rate 0 to be infinite in value with probability one.

Corollary 2.7. Suppose that q ≥ 0 and let eq be an exponentially distributed ran-dom variable which is independent of X. Then Xeq is exponentially distributed withparameter Φ(q).

Page 21: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

2.5 Comments 15

Proof. First suppose that q > 0. The result is an easy consequence of the fact that

P(Xeq > x) = P(τ+x < eq) = E(e−qτ+x 1(τ+x <∞))

together with the conclusion of Theorem 2.6. For the remaining case that q = 0,we need to take limits as q ↓ 0 in the previous conclusion. Note that we may alwaywrite eq as equal in distribution to q−1e1. Hence, thanks to monotonicity of X , theMonotone Convergence Theorem for probabilities and the continuity of Φ , we have

P(X∞ > x) = limq↓0

P(Xq−1e1> x) = lim

q↓0e−Φ(q)x = e−Φ(0)x,

and the proof is complete.

2.5 Comments

Theorem 2.2 is a simplified form of a much more general theorem that says thatall Levy processes are uniquely identified by the distribution of their increments.The idea of tilting a distribution by exponentially weighting its probability densityfunction was introduced by Esscher (1932). This idea lends itself well to changesof measure in the theory of stochastic processes, in particular for Levy processes.The Esscher martingale and the associated change of measure presented above isanalogous to the the exponential martingale for Brownian motion and the role that itplays in the classical Cameron-Martin-Girsanov change of measure. Indeed, the the-ory presented here may be extended to the general class of spectrally negative Levyprocesses, which includes both Cramer-Lundberg processes as well as Brownianmotion. See for example Chapter 3 of Kyprianou (2012). The Esscher transformplays a prominent role in fundamental mathematical finance as well as insurancemathematics; see for example the discussion in the paper of Gerber and Shiu (1994)and references therin. They style of reasoning in the proof of Theorem 2.6 is inspiredby the classical computations of Wald (1944) for random walks.

Page 22: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around
Page 23: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

Chapter 3The Kella-Whitt martingale and the minimum

We move now to the second of our two key martingales. In a similar spirit to theprevious chapter, we shall use the martingale to study the law of the process X =X t : t ≥ 0, where

X t := infs≤t

Xs, t ≥ 0. (3.1)

In particular, as with the case of X , we shall consider the law of X when sampledat an independent and exponentially distributed time. Unlike the case of X however,this will turn out not be exponentially distributed. In order to reach this objective,we will need to pass through two sections of preparatory material.

3.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process reflected in its supremum

Fix x≥ 0. Define the process Y x = Y xt : t ≥ 0, where

Y xt := (x∨X t)−Xt , t ≥ 0.

Suppose that

Lemma 3.1. For each x≥ 0, Y x is a Markov process.

Proof. To this end, define for each y≥ 0, Y xt = (x∨X t)−Xt and let Xu = Xt+u−Xt

for any u≥ 0. Note that for t,s≥ 0,

(y∨X t+s)−Xt+s =

(y∨X t ∨ sup

u∈[t,t+s]Xu

)−Xt − Xs

=

[(x∨X t −Xt)∨

(sup

u∈[t,t+s]Xu−Xt

)]− Xs

=

[Y x

t ∨ supu∈[0,s]

Xu

]− Xs.

17

Page 24: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

18 3 The Kella-Whitt martingale and the minimum

From the right-hand side above, it is clear that the law of Y xt+s depends only on Y x

tand Xu : u ∈ [0,s], the latter being independent of Ft . Hence Y x

t : t ≥ 0 is aMarkov process.

Remark 3.2. Note that the argument given in the proof above shows that, if τ is anystopping time with respect to F, then, on τ < ∞,

(x∨Xτ+s)−Xτ+s =

[Y x

τ ∨ supu∈[0,s]

Xu

]− Xs,

where now, Xs = Xτ+s−Xτ . In other words,

Y xτ+s = Y z

s such that z = Y xτ ,

where Y z is independent of Y xu : u≤ τ and equal in law to Y z.

Remark 3.3. It is also possible to argue in the style of the proof of Lemma 3.1 that,for each x≥ 0, the triple (Y x,X ,N) is also Markovian. Specifically, for each s, t ≥ 0,

(Y xt+s,Xt+s,Nt+s) = (Y z

s , y+ Xs, n+ Ns) such that z = Y xt , y = Xt and n = Nt ,

where (Y zs , Xs, Ns) : s≥ 0 is independent of Ft and equal in law to (Y z,X ,N) under

P. Again, one also easily replaces t by an F-stopping time in the above observation,as in the previous remark.

3.2 A useful Poisson integral

In the next section, we will come across some functionals of the driving Poissonprocess N = Nt : t ≥ 0 that lies behind X , and hence Y x, for each x≥ 0. Specificallywe will be interested in expected sums of the form

E

[Nt

∑i=1

f (Y xTi−, ξi)

], x, t ≥ 0,

where f : [0,∞)× (0,∞)→ [0,∞) is measurable, Ti : i≥ 1 are the arrival times inthe process N and recall that ξi : i ≥ 1 are the i.i.d. subsequent claim sizes of Xwith common distribution F . We will use the following result.

Theorem 3.4 (Compensation formula). For all non-negative, bounded, measur-able f ,g and x, t ≥ 0,

E

[Nt

∑i=1

f (Y xTi−, ξi)

]= λ

∫ t

0

∫(0,∞)

E( f (Y xs−), u)F(du)ds. (3.2)

Page 25: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

3.2 A useful Poisson integral 19

Proof. First note that, with the help of Fubini’s Theorem, we can write

E

[∞

∑i=1

1(Ti≤t) f (Y xTi−, ξi)

]=

∑i=1

E[1(Ti≤t) f (Y x

Ti−, ξi)]. (3.3)

Note that Ti = inft > 0 : Nt = i and hence each Ti is a stopping time. Note alsothat, for each i ≥ 1, the terms f (Y x

Ti−) are each measurable in the sigma-algebraHi := σ(Ns : s≤ Ti,ξ j : j = 1, · · · , i−1). Breaking each of the expectations inthe sum on the right-hand side of (3.3), by first conditioning on Hi, it follows that

∑i=1

∫(0,∞)

E[1(Ti≤t) f (Y x

Ti−, u)]

F(du) =∫(0,∞)

E

[Nt

∑i=1

f (Y xTi−, u)

]F(du).

The proof is therefore complete as soon as we show that, for all x, t ≥ 0 and u > 0,

E

[Nt

∑i=1

f (Y xTi−, u)

]= λ

∫ t

0E[ f (Y x

s−, u)]ds. (3.4)

To this end define, for x, t ≥ 0 and u> 0, ηu(x, t) =E[∑Nti=1 f (Y x

Ti−, u)]. With the helpof the Markov property for Y x and stationary independent increments of N, we have

ηu(x, t + s)−ηu(x, t) = E

[E

[Nt+s

∑i=Nt+1

f (Y xTi−, u)

∣∣∣∣∣Ft

]]

= E

E[ Ns

∑i=1

f (Y zTi−

, u)

]∣∣∣∣∣z=Y x

t

= E [ηu(Y x

t ,s)] ,

where the process (Y zs , Ns) : s≥ 0 is independent of Ft and equal in law to (Y z,N)

under P. Note here that Ti : i≥ 1 are the arrival times of the process N. Next, notethat, for all x,s≥ 0, we have that s−1η(x,s) is bounded by s−1CE(Ns) = λC, whereC = supy≥0 f (y)<∞. Hence, with the help of the Dominated Convergence Theorem,our objective now is to compute the right-derivative of ηu(x, t) by evaluating thelimit

lims↓0

ηu(x, t + s)−ηu(x, t)s

= E[

lims↓0

1s

ηu(Y xt ,s)

]. (3.5)

Note that, for all x,s≥ 0,

1s

ηu(x,s) =1sE[ f (Y x

T1−, u)1(Ns=1)]+1sE

[Ns

∑i≥1

f (Y xTi−, u)1(Ns≥2)

]. (3.6)

Recall, moreover, that, for v≤ s,

Page 26: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

20 3 The Kella-Whitt martingale and the minimum

P(T1 ∈ dv,Ns = 1) = P(T1 ∈ dv,T2 > s)

= P(T1 ∈ dv,T2−T1 > s− v)

= λe−λvdv× e−λ (s−v)

= λe−λ sdv.

Hence for the first term on the right-hand side of (3.6) we have

lims↓0

1sE[ f (Y x

T1−, u)1(Ns=1)] = lims↓0

λe−λ s

s

∫ s

0f ((x∨cv)−cv, u)dv = λ f (x).

For the second term on the right-hand side of (3.6), we also have

lims↓0

1sE

[Ns

∑i≥1

f (Y xTi−, u)1(Ns≥2)

]≤C lim

s↓0

1sE[Ns1(Ns≥2)] = lim

s↓0

1s[λ s(1− e−λ s)] = 0.

Returning to (3.6) it follows that, for all x≥ 0, lims↓0 s−1η(x,s) = λ f (x) and hence,from (3.5), we have that

∂ tηu(x, t+) = λE[ f (Y x

t , u)].

A similar argument, looking at the difference ηu(x, t)−ηu(x, t− s), for x ≥ 0 andt > s > 0, also shows that the left derivative

∂ tηu(x, t−) = λE[ f (Y x

t , u)].

It follows that ηu(x, t) is differentiable in t on (0,∞) and hence, since ηu(x,0) = 0,

ηu(x, t) = λ

∫ t

0E[ f (Y x

s , u)]ds,

which establishes (3.4) and completes the proof.

Remark 3.5. It is a straightforward exercise to deduce from Theorem 3.4 that thecompensated process

Nt

∑i=1

f (Y xTi−,ξi)−λ

∫ t

0

∫(0,∞)

E( f (Y xs−), u)F(du)ds, t ≥ 0,

is a martingale. In this sense (3.2) is called the compensation formula.

Page 27: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

3.3 Second exponential martingale 21

3.3 Second exponential martingale

We are now ready to introduce our second exponential martingale, also known asthe Kella-Whitt martingale. See Sect. 3.7 for historical remarks regarding its name.

Theorem 3.6. For θ > 0 and x≥ 0,

Mxt := ψ(θ)

∫ t

0e−θ(Xs∨x−Xs) ds+1− e−θ(X t∨x−Xt )−θ(X t ∨ x), t ≥ 0 (3.7)

is a P-martingale with respect to F.

Proof. Let us start by using the Markov property of Y x to write, for x,s, t ≥ 0,

x∨X t+s = Y xt+s +Xt+s = Y z

s |z=Y xt+ Xs +Xs = (z∨ X s)|z=Y x

t+Xs,

where Xs = Xt+s−Xt and Y z is independent of Y xu : u ≤ t and equal in law to Y z.

Using this decomposition, it is straightforward to show that

E[Mxt+s|Ft ] = ψ(θ)

∫ t

0e−θY x

u du+1−θXs

+ E[

ψ(θ)∫ s

0e−θY z

u du− e−θY zs −θ(z∨X s)

]∣∣∣∣z=Y x

t

.

The proof is thus complete as soon as we show that, for all z,s≥ 0,

E[

ψ(θ)∫ s

0e−θY z

u du− e−θY zs −θ(z∨X s)

]=−e−θz−θz.

In order to achieve this goal, we shall develop the left-hand side above using the so-called chain rule for right-continuous functions of bounded variation (also knownas an extension of the Fundamental Theorem of Calculus for the latter class). Thatis,

e−θY zs = e−θz−θ

∫(0,s]

e−θY zu d(Y z

u )c +

Ns

∑i=1

[e−θY zTi − e−θY z

Ti− ], (3.8)

for z,s≥ 0, where (Y zu )

c is the continuous part of Y z. Note, however, that∫(0,s]

e−θY zu d(Y z

u )c =

∫(0,s]

e−θY zu d(z∨Xu)−c

∫ s

0e−θY z

u du

=∫(0,s]

1(Y zu=0)e

−θY zu d(z∨Xu)−c

∫ s

0e−θY z

u du

= (z∨X s)− z−c∫ s

0e−θY z

u du,

where in the second equality we have used the fact Y zu = 0 on the set of times that

the process z∨Xu increments. We may now take expectations in (3.8) to deduce that

Page 28: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

22 3 The Kella-Whitt martingale and the minimum

E[e−θY z

s +θ(z∨X s)]

= e−zθ +θz+E

[cθ

∫ s

0e−θY z

u du+Ns

∑i=1

e−θY zTi−(e−θξi −1)

]

= e−zθ +θz+cθE[∫ s

0e−θY z

u du]+λ

∫(0,∞)

(e−θx−1)F(dx)E[∫ s

0e−θY z

u du]

= e−zθ +θz+ψ(θ)E[∫ s

0e−θY z

u du],

where we have applied Theorem 3.4 in the second equality. The proof is now com-plete.

3.4 Duality

For our main application of the Kella-Whitt martingale, we need to address one ad-ditional property of the Cramer-Lundberg process, which follows as a consequenceof the fact that it is also a Levy process. This property concerns the issue of duality.

Lemma 3.7 (Duality Lemma). For each fixed t > 0, define the time-reversed pro-cess

X(t−s)−−Xt : 0≤ s≤ t

and the dual process,−Xs : 0≤ s≤ t.

Then the two processes have the same law under P.

Proof. Define the process Rs = Xt −X(t−s)− for 0≤ s≤ t. Under P we have Y0 = 0almost surely, as t is a jump time with probability zero. As can be seen from Fig. 3.1,the paths of R are obtained from those of X by a rotation about 180, with an ad-justment of the continuity at the jump times, so that its paths are almost surelyright-continuous with left limits. The stationary independent increments of X implydirectly that the same is true of Y. This puts R in the class of Levy processes. More-over, for each 0 ≤ s ≤ t, the distribution of Rs is identical to that of Xs. It followsthat

E(eλRs) = eψ(λ )s,

for all 0 ≤ s ≤ t < ∞ and λ ≥ 0. Since clearly R belongs to the class of Levy pro-cesses with no positive jumps, it follows from Theorem 2.2 that R has the same lawas X .

One interesting feature, that follows as a consequence of the Duality Lemma, isthe relationship between the running supremum, the running infimum, the processreflected in its supremum and the process reflected in its infimum. The last fourobjects are, respectively,

Page 29: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

3.5 Distribution of the minimum 23

Fig. 3.1 A realisation of the trajectory of Xs : 0≤ s≤ t and of X(t−s)−−Xt : 0≤ s≤ t, respec-tively.

X t = sup0≤s≤t

Xs, X t = inf0≤s≤t

Xs

X t −Xt : t ≥ 0 and Xt −X t : t ≥ 0.

Lemma 3.8. For each fixed t > 0, the pairs (X t ,X t −Xt) and (Xt −X t ,−X t) havethe same distribution under P.

Proof. Define Rs = Xt −X(t−s)− for 0 ≤ s ≤ t, as in the previous proof, and writeRt = inf0≤s≤t Rs. Using right-continuity and left limits of paths we may deduce that

(X t ,X t −Xt) = (Rt −Rt ,−Rt)

almost surely. Now appealing to the Duality Lemma we have that Rs : 0 ≤ s ≤ tis equal in law to Xs : 0≤ s≤ t under P and the result follows.

3.5 Distribution of the minimum

We are now able to deliver the promised result concerning the law of the minimum.

Theorem 3.9. Let X t = inf0≤u≤t Xu and suppose that eq is an exponentially dis-tributed random variable with parameter q > 0 independent of the process X. Thenfor θ > 0,

E(eθXeq

)=

q(θ −Φ(q))Φ(q)(ψ(θ)−q)

, (3.9)

where the right hand side is understood in the asymptotic sense when θ = Φ(q), i.e.q/Φ(q)ψ ′(Φ(q)).

Proof. Let us first consider the case that θ ,q > 0 and θ 6= Φ(q). Let Yt = Y 0t =

X t −Xt . Note that by an application of Fubini’s theorem together with Lemma 3.8,

Page 30: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

24 3 The Kella-Whitt martingale and the minimum

E[∫ eq

0e−θYs ds

]=∫

0e−qsE

(e−θYs

)ds =

1qE(e−θYeq

)=

1qE(eθXeq

).

From Theorem 3.6 we have that E(M0

eq

)= E(M0

0) = 0 and hence we obtain

ψ(θ)−qq

E(eθXeq

)= θ E

(Xeq

)−1.

Recall from Corollary 2.7 that Xeq is exponentially distributed with parameter Φ(q)and hence E

(Xeq

)= 1/Φ(q). It follows that

ψ(θ)−qq

E(eθXeq

)=

θ −Φ(q)Φ(q)

. (3.10)

For the case that q > 0 and θ = Φ(q), the result follows from the case that θ 6= Φ(q)by taking limits as θ →Φ(q).

3.6 The long term behaviour

Let us conclude this chapter by returning to earlier remarks made in Sect. 1.2regarding the long term behaviour of the Cramer-Lundberg process. Recall thatψ ′(0+) = c− λ µ , where c is the premium rate, λ is the rate of claim arrivalsand µ is their common means. It is clear from (1.4) that when ψ ′(0+) > 0 wehave limt→∞ Xt = ∞ and when ψ ′(0+) < 0, limt→∞ Xt = −∞. For the remainingcase, when ψ ′(0+) = 0, the Strong Law of Large Numbers is not as informative.We can, however, use our previous results on the law of the maximum and min-imum of X to determine the long term behaviour of X . Specifically, the lemmabelow shows that, when ψ ′(0+) = 0, the process X oscillates in the sense thatlimsupt→∞ Xt =− liminft→∞ Xt = ∞.

Lemma 3.10. We have that

(i) X∞ and −X∞ are either infinite almost surely or finite almost surely,(ii) X∞ = ∞ if and only if ψ ′(0+)≥ 0,(iii) X∞ =−∞ if and only if ψ ′(0+)≤ 0.

Proof. Recall that, on account of the strict convexity ψ , we have that Φ(0) > 0 ifand only if ψ ′(0+)< 0. Hence

limq↓0

qΦ(q)

=

0 if ψ ′(0+)≤ 0ψ ′(0+) if ψ ′(0+)> 0.

By taking q to zero in the identity (3.9) we now have that

E(eθX∞

)=

0 if ψ ′(0+)≤ 0ψ ′(0+)θ/ψ(θ) if ψ ′(0+)> 0. (3.11)

Page 31: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

3.7 Comments 25

In the first of the two cases above, it is clear that P(−X∞ = ∞) = 1. In the secondcase, taking limits as θ ↑ ∞, one sees that P(−X∞ = ∞) = 0.

Next, recall from Corollary 2.7 that X∞ is exponentially distributed with param-eter Φ(0). In particular, X∞ is almost surely finite when ψ ′(0+) ≥ 0 and almostsurely infinite when ψ ′(0+)< 0.

Putting this information together, the statements (i)–(iii) are easily recovered.

3.7 Comments

The fact that the process Y x is a Markov process for each x≥ 0 is well known fromqueuing theory, where the process Y x is precisely the workload in an M/G/1 queue.With a little more effort, it is not difficult to show that Y x is also a strong Markovprocess. Theorem 3.4 is an example of the so-called compensation formula whichcan be stated for general Poisson integrals. See for example Chapter XII.1 of Re-vuz and Yor (2004). The Kella-Whitt martingale was first introduced in Kella andWhitt (1992) in the setting of a general Levy process. It is an extension of so-calledKennedy, or indeed of Azema-Yor, martingales, both of which have previously beenstudied in the setting of Brownian motion. The Duality Lemma is also well knownfor (and in fact originates from) the theory of random walks, the discrete time ana-logue of Levy processes, and is justified using an identical proof. See for exampleChapter XII of Feller (1971).

Page 32: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around
Page 33: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

Chapter 4Scale functions and ruin probabilities

The two main results from the previous chapters, concerning the law of the maxi-mum and minimum of the Cramer-Lundberg process, can now be put to use to es-tablish our first results concerning the classical ruin problem. We shall introduce theso-called scale functions, which will prove to be indispensable, both in this chapterand later, when describing various distributional features of the ruin problem.

4.1 Scale functions and the probability of ruin

For a given Cramer-Lundberg process, X , with Laplace exponent ψ , we want todefine a family of scale functions, indexed by q ≥ 0, which we shall denote byW (q) : R→ [0,∞). For all q≥ 0 we shall set W (q)(x) = 0 for x < 0. The next theoremwill also serve as a definition for W (q) on [0,∞).

Theorem 4.1. For all q ≥ 0 we may define W (q) on [0,∞) as the unique non-decreasing, right-continuous function whose Laplace transform is given by∫

0e−βxW (q)(x)dx =

1ψ(β )−q

, β > Φ(q). (4.1)

For convenience we shall always write W in place of W (0). Typically we shallrefer the functions W (q) as q-scale functions, but we shall also refer to W as just thescale function.

Proof (of Theorem 4.1). First assume that ψ ′(0+) > 0. With a pre-emptive choiceof notation, we shall define the function

W (x) =1

ψ ′(0+)Px(X∞ ≥ 0), x ∈ R. (4.2)

Clearly W (x) = 0, for x < 0, and it is non-decreasing and right-continuous since itis also proportional to the distribution function P(−X∞ ≤ x). Integration by parts

27

Page 34: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

28 4 Scale functions and ruin probabilities

shows that, on the one hand,∫∞

0e−βxW (x)dx =

1ψ ′(0+)

∫∞

0e−βxP(−X∞ ≤ x)dx

=1

ψ ′(0+)β

∫[0,∞)

e−βx P(−X∞ ∈ dx)

=1

ψ ′(0+)βE(

eβX∞

). (4.3)

On the other hand, recalling (3.11), we also have that

E(

eβX∞

)=

ψ ′(0+)β

ψ(β ), β ≥ 0.

When combined with (4.3), this gives us (4.1) as required for the case q = 0 andψ ′(0+)> 0.

Next we deal with the case where q > 0 or where q = 0 and ψ ′(0+) < 0. Tothis end, again making use of a pre-emptive choice of notation, let us define thenon-decreasing and right-continuous function

W (q)(x) = eΦ(q)xWΦ(q)(x), x≥ 0, (4.4)

where WΦ(q) plays the role of W but for the process (X ,PΦ(q)). Note in particularthat, by Theorem 2.4, the latter process has Laplace exponent

ψΦ(q)(θ) = ψ(θ +Φ(q))−q, θ ≥ 0. (4.5)

Hence ψ ′Φ(q)(0+) = ψ ′(Φ(q))> 0, which ensures that WΦ(q) is well defined by the

previous part of the proof. Taking Laplace transforms we have for β > Φ(q),∫∞

0e−βxW (q)(x)dx =

∫∞

0e−(β−Φ(q))xWΦ(q)(x)dx

=1

ψΦ(q)(β −Φ(q))

=1

ψ(β )−q,

thus completing the proof for the case that q > 0 or that q = 0 and ψ ′(0+)< 0.Finally, we deal with the case that q = 0 and ψ ′(0+) = 0. Since WΦ(q)(x) is

an increasing function, we may also treat it as a distribution function of a measurewhich we also, as an abuse of notation, call WΦ(q). Integrating by parts thus givesus, for β > 0, ∫

[0,∞)e−βx WΦ(q)(dx) =

β

ψΦ(q)(β ). (4.6)

Note that the assumption ψ ′(0+) = 0, implies that Φ(0) = 0, and hence for θ ≥ 0,

Page 35: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

4.1 Scale functions and the probability of ruin 29

limq↓0

ψΦ(q)(θ) = limq↓0

[ψ(θ +Φ(q))−q] = ψ(θ).

One may appeal to the Extended Continuity Theorem for Laplace transforms, seefor example Theorem XIII.1.2a of Feller (1971), and (4.6) to deduce that, since

limq↓0

∫[0,∞)

e−βx WΦ(q)(dx) =β

ψ(β ),

then there exists a measure W ∗ such that W ∗(x) :=W ∗[0,x] = limq↓0 WΦ(q)(x) and∫[0,∞)

e−βx W ∗(dx) =β

ψ(β ).

Integration by parts shows that W satisfies∫∞

0e−βxW (x)dx =

1ψ(β )

,

for β > 0 as required. Note that it is clear from its definition that W is non-decreasingand right-continuous.

With the definition of scale functions in hand, we can return to the problem ofruin. The following corollary follows as a simple consequence of Laplace inversionof the identity in Theorem 3.9, taking account of (4.1).

Corollary 4.2. For q≥ 0 and q > 0,

P(−Xeq ∈ dx) =q

Φ (q)W (q)(dx)−qW (q)(x)dx. (4.7)

Note that, in the above formula, thanks to (4.4), the function W (q) is increasing andhence the measure W (q)(dx), x ≥ 0, makes sense. Note also that the above formulacan also be stated when q = 0, providing ψ ′(0+)> 0. In that case the term q/Φ(q)should be understood, in the limiting sense, as equal to ψ ′(0+).

We complete this section with our main result about ruin probabilities, usingscale functions. To this end, let us define the functions

Z(q)(x) = 1+q∫ x

0W (q)(y)dy, x ∈ R,

for q≥ 0.

Theorem 4.3 (Ruin probabilities).For any x ∈ R and q≥ 0,

Ex

(e−qτ

−0 1(τ

−0 <∞)

)= Z(q)(x)− q

Φ (q)W (q)(x) , (4.8)

Page 36: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

30 4 Scale functions and ruin probabilities

where we understand q/Φ (q) in the limiting sense for q = 0, so that

Px(τ−0 < ∞) =

1−ψ ′(0+)W (x) if ψ ′(0+)≥ 01 if ψ ′(0+)< 0 . (4.9)

Proof. Appealing to (4.7), we have, for x≥ 0,

Ex

(e−qτ

−0 1(τ−0 <∞)

)= Px(eq > τ

−0 )

= Px(Xeq < 0)

= P(−Xeq > x)

= 1−P(−Xeq ≤ x)

= 1+q∫ x

0W (q)(y)dy− q

Φ (q)W (q)(x)

= Z(q)(x)− qΦ (q)

W (q)(x). (4.10)

Note that since Z(q)(x) = 1 and W (q)(x) = 0 for all x ∈ (−∞,0), the statement isvalid for all x ∈ R. The proof is now complete for the case that q > 0.

In order to deal with the case q = 0, note that

limq↓0

q/Φ (q) = limq↓0

ψ(Φ(q))/Φ(q)

If ψ ′(0+)≥ 0. i.e. the process drifts to infinity or oscillates, then Φ(0) = 0 and thelimit is equal to ψ ′(0+). Otherwise, when Φ(0) > 0, the aforementioned limit iszero. The proof is thus completed by taking the limit in q in (4.8).

The last part of the above theorem can be recovered directly from the definitionof W in the case that ψ ′(0+)> 0, see (4.2). Moreover, the probability of ruin whenψ ′(0+)≤ 1 is obviously 1 given the discussion in Sect. 3.6.

4.2 Connection with the Pollaczek–Khintchine formula

In Theorem 1.3 we gave the classical Pollaczek-Khintchine formula for the proba-bility of ruin in the case that ψ ′(0+) > 0. Compared with the formula in (4.9), itis not immediately obvious how these two formulae relate to one another. Let ustherefore spend a little time to make the connection between the two, first with ananalytical explanation and then with a probabilistic explanation.

Analytical explanation. Let us start by noting that, just as in formula (4.6), wecan integrate the Laplace transform of W by parts to show that∫

[0,∞)e−βxW (dx) =

β

ψ(β )β > 0.

Page 37: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

4.2 Connection with the Pollaczek–Khintchine formula 31

Alternatively, this also follows from the definition (4.2) and the expression for theLaplace transform of −X∞, given in (3.11). Next note that, from the discussionfollowing Theorem 2.2, the inequality ψ(0+)> 0 necessarily implies that

µ :=∫(0,∞)

xF(dx)

is finite and, moreover, thatρ := λ µ/c< 1.

This inequality also implies that

λ µ

c

∫∞

0e−βx 1

µF(x)dx < 1.

Hence, recalling the representation of ψ given in (2.4), we can write, for β > 0,

β

ψ(β )=

1c

1

1− λ µ

c

∫∞

0 e−βx 1µ

F(x)dx,

=1c

∑k=0

ρk(∫

0e−βx 1

µF(x)dx

)k

, (4.11)

where we recall that F(x) = 1−F(x). Next note that

η(dx) :=1µ

F(x)dx, x≥ 0,

is a probability measure. For each k ≥ 0, denote by η∗k(dx), x ≥ 0, its k-fold con-volution, where we understand η∗0(dx) := δ0(dx), x ≥ 0, the Dirac delta measurewhich places an atom at zero. Since, for β > 0 and k ≥ 0,

∫[0,∞)

e−βxη∗k(dx) =

(∫∞

0e−βx 1

µF(x)dx

)k

,

we may apply Laplace inversion to the right hand side of (4.11) and conclude that,for x≥ 0,

W (dx) =1c

∑k=0

ρkη∗k(dx),

which is to say, for x≥ 0,

W (x) =1c

∑k=0

ρkη∗k(x). (4.12)

Returning to the formula in (4.9) when ψ ′(0+) = c−λ µ > 0, we now see that

Page 38: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

32 4 Scale functions and ruin probabilities

1−Px(τ−0 < ∞) = (1−ρ)

∑k=0

ρkη∗k(x), (4.13)

as stated in Theorem 1.3.

Probabilistic explanation. The Pollaczek-Khintchine formula can also be recov-ered by looking at the successive minima of the process X . To this end, let us setΘ0 = 0 and sequentially define, for all k ≥ 1 such that Θk−1 < ∞,

Θk = inft >Θk−1 : Xt < XΘk−1,

with the usual understanding that inf /0 = ∞. As long as they are finite, the times Θkare thus the times of successive new minima.

The strong Markov property implies that, for each k ≥ 1 such that Θk−1 < ∞,the pair (Θk−Θk−1,XΘk −XΘk−1) is independent of FΘk−1 and equal in law to thepair (τ−0 ,X

τ−0), where we understand XΘk = ∞ when Θk = ∞ and, similarly, X

τ−0= ∞

when τ−0 = ∞. For k ≥ 1, define on Θk−1 < ∞

∆k =−(XΘk −XΘk−1).

Then the event τ−0 = ∞ under Px, x≥ 0, corresponds to the event thatν−1

∑n=1

∆n ≤ x

,

where ν = mink ≥ 1 : Θk = ∞.1 See Fig 4.1. Note however that, again by thestrong Markov property, the index ν is the time of first success in an independentsequence of Bernoulli trials with probability success ρ := P(Θ1 = ∞) = P(τ−0 = ∞).In other words, ν is Geometrically distributed. Moreover, ν is independent of theoutcome of each of aforesaid independent trials, each of which fail, delivering arandom value which are distributed according to the measure η(dx) :=P(∆1 ∈ dx)=P(−X

τ−0∈ dx|τ−0 < ∞), x > 0.

In conclusion, we see that

1−Px(τ−0 < ∞) = (1− ρ) ∑

k≥0ρ

kη∗k(x), x≥ 0. (4.14)

Comparing the formulae (4.13) and (4.14) when x = 0, we see that P(τ−0 < ∞) =ρ = ρ , and hence it follows that η = η .

Note that the following corollary falls straight out of the above comparison.

Corollary 4.4. When ψ ′(0+)> 0,

1 We use the standard convention that ∑0n=1 · := 0.

Page 39: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

4.3 Gambler’s ruin 33

Fig. 4.1 A path of the Cramer–Lundberg process which drifts to ∞ before passing below 0. Thered lines mark the successive minima. The vertical distance between each red line represent thequantities ∆n.

P(τ−0 < ∞) =λ µ

cand P(−X

τ−0≤ x|τ−0 < ∞) =

∫ x

0F(y)dy, x≥ 0.

4.3 Gambler’s ruin

A slightly more elaborate version of the ruin problem is to consider the event that acertain wealth, say a ≥ 0, can be achieved through the surplus process before ruin.This is also known as the gambler’s ruin problem. Define the stopping times,

τ+a = inft > 0 : Xt > a and τ

−0 = inft > 0 : Xt < 0 .

We are interested in the events τ+a < τ−0 and τ−0 < τ+a .

Theorem 4.5. For all q≥ 0, a > 0 and x < a,

Ex

(e−qτ+a 1τ

+a <τ

−0 )=

W (q)(x)W (q)(a)

. (4.15)

Proof. First we deal with the case that q = 0 and ψ ′(0+) > 0 as in the previousproof. Since we have identified W (x) = Px (X∞ ≥ 0)/ψ ′(0+), a simple argument,using the law of total probability and the Strong Markov Property, now yields, forx ∈ [0,a],

Px (X∞ ≥ 0)

= Ex

(Px

(X∞ ≥ 0 |F

τ+a

))= Ex

(1(τ+a <τ

−0 )Pa (X∞ ≥ 0)

)+Ex

(1(τ+a >τ

−0 )PX

τ−0(X∞ ≥ 0)

). (4.16)

Page 40: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

34 4 Scale functions and ruin probabilities

The first term on the right-hand side of (4.16) is equal to

Pa (X∞ ≥ 0) Px(τ+a < τ

−0).

The second term on the right hand side of (4.16) turns out to be also equal tozero. To see why, note that X

τ−0< 0 and the claim follows by virtue of the fact

that Px (X∞ ≥ 0) = 0 for x < 0. We may now deduce that

Px(τ+a < τ

−0)=

W (x)W (a)

, (4.17)

and clearly the same equality holds even when x < 0 as both left and right hand sideare identically equal to zero.

Next we deal with the case q > 0. Making use of the Esscher transform andrecalling that X

τ+a= a, we have that

Ex

(e−qτ+a 1(τ+a <τ

−0 )

)= Ex

(e

Φ(q)(Xτ+a−x)−qτ+a 1(τ+a <τ

−0 )

)e−Φ(q)(a−x)

= e−Φ(q)(a−x)PΦ(q)x

(τ+a < τ

−0)

= e−Φ(q)(a−x)WΦ(q)(x)WΦ(q)(a)

=W (q)(x)W (q)(a)

.

Finally, to deal with the case that q = 0 and ψ ′(0+)≤ 0, one needs only to takelimits as q ↓ 0 in the above identity, making use of monotone convergence on theleft hand side and continuity in q on the right hand side thanks to the ContinuityTheorem for Laplace transforms.

We can also consider the converse event that ruin occurs prior to achieving adesired wealth of a≥ 0.

Theorem 4.6. For any x≤ a and q≥ 0,

Ex

(e−qτ

−0 1(τ

−0 <τ

+a )

)= Z(q)(x)−Z(q)(a)

W (q)(x)W (q)(a)

. (4.18)

Proof. Fix q > 0. We have for x≥ 0,

Ex(e−qτ−0 1(τ−0 <τ

+a )) = Ex(e−qτ

−0 1(τ−0 <∞))−Ex(e−qτ

−0 1(τ+a <τ

−0 )).

Applying the strong Markov property at τ+a and using the fact that Xτ+a= a on

τ+a < ∞, we also have that

Ex(e−qτ−0 1(τ+a <τ

−0 )) = Ex(e−qτ+a 1(τ+a <τ

−0 ))Ea(e−qτ

−0 1(τ−0 <∞)).

Page 41: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

4.4 Comments 35

Appealing to (4.8) and (4.15), we now have that

Ex(e−qτ−0 1(τ−0 <τ

+a )) = Z(q)(x)− q

Φ(q)W (q)(x)

−W (q)(x)W (q)(a)

(Z(q)(a)− q

Φ(q)W (q)(a)

),

and the required result follows in the case that q > 0. The case that q = 0 is againdealt with by taking limits as q ↓ 0.

4.4 Comments

The name ‘scale function’ for W was first used by Bertoin (1992) to reflect theanalogous role it plays in (4.15) to scale functions for diffusions. The gambler’sruin problem (also known as the two-sided exit problem) has a long history, startingwith the early work of Zolotarev (1964) and Takacs (1966), followed by Rogers(1990), all of whom dealt with (4.15) in the case q = 0. The case that q > 0 wasdealt with by Korolyuk (1975a), and later by Bertoin (1997). Treatments of theother identities in this chapter can be found in Korolyuk (1974), Korolyuk (1975a),Korolyuk (1975b) and Bertoin (1997). A recent summary of the theory of scalefunctions and its applications can be found in Cohen et al. (2012).

Page 42: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around
Page 43: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

Chapter 5The Gerber–Shiu measure

Having introduced scale functions, we are now ready to look at the Gerber–Shiumeasure in detail. In this chapter, we shall develop an idea from the previous chapter,involving Bernoulli trials of excursions from the minimum, to provide an identityfor the expected occupation of the Cramer-Lundberg process until ruin. This identitywill then play a key role in identifying an expression for the Gerber-Shiu measure.In fact, our analysis will work equally well for the setting that ruin occurs before thesurplus achieves a pre-specified value.

5.1 Decomposing paths at the minimum

The main objective in this section is to prove the following decoupling for the path ofthe Cramer-Lundberg process when sampled over an independent and exponentiallydistributed random time, eq, with rate q > 0.

Theorem 5.1. For all q > 0, the pair of random variables Xeq −Xeq and Xeq areindependent.

Proof. The proof mimics the way in which we gave a probabilistic explanation ofthe Pollaczek-Khintchine formula. Recall that, in that setting, we sequentially de-fined Θ0 = 0 and, for all k ≥ 1 such that Θk−1 < ∞,

Θk = inft >Θk−1 : Xt < XΘk−1.

Moreover, on the event Θk−1 < ∞ we defined ∆k =−(XΘk−XΘk−1). Although thediscussion in the context of the Pollaczek-Khintchine formula focused exclusivelyon the case that ψ ′(0+) > 0, the times Θk are still well defined when ψ ′(0+) ≤ 0.In fact, in this regime, since X∞ =−∞ almost surely, it follows that Θk < ∞ almostsurely for all k ≥ 1.

Now suppose that e(k)q : k ≥ 1 is a sequence of independent and identicallydistributed random variables. Define

37

Page 44: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

38 5 The Gerber–Shiu measure

`= mink ≥ 1 : Θk−Θk−1 > e(k)q ,

the index of the first excursion1 from the minimum which exceeds in duration thecorrespondingly indexed exponential random variable in the sequence e(k)q : k≥ 1.By the lack of memory property, we can now identify the pair (Xeq −Xeq ,−Xeq) asequal in law to the pair (

XΘ`−1+e(`)q

−XΘ`−1 ,`−1

∑j=1

∆ j

). (5.1)

Appealing again to the concept of Bernoulli trials, it is clear that both the randomvariable ` and the `-th excursion from the minimum will be independent from thepreceding `− 1 excursions from the minimum. In particular, this implies that thepair in (5.1) are independent, and hence so are the pair (Xeq −Xeq ,−Xeq).

Note that the above proof allows us to say a little more in the description of(Xeq −Xeq ,−Xeq) thanks to the representation (5.1). Indeed, Xeq −Xeq is equal inlaw to Xeq conditional on eq < τ

−0 . Moreover, each of the ∆ j in the sum are i.i.d.

and equal in distribution to −Xτ−0

conditional on τ−0 < eq, and ` is independent and

geometrically distributed with parameter P(eq < τ−0 ).

5.2 Resolvent densities

As an intermediate step to deriving a closed-form expression for the Gerber-Shiumeasure, we are interested in computing the so-called, q-resolvent measure for theCramer–Lundberg process, X , killed on exiting [0,∞). Said another way, we areinterested in characterising the measure

U (q)(a,x,dy) :=∫

0e−qt Px(Xt ∈ dy, t < τ

[0,a])dt, y ∈ [0,a],

where a > 0, q≥ 0 andτ[0,a] = τ

+a ∧ τ

−0 .

If, for each x ∈ [0,a], a density of U (q)(a,x,dy) exists with respect to Lebesguemeasure, then we call it the resolvent density and denote it by u(q)(a,x,y). (Notethat this density can only be defined Lebesgue almost everywhere). It turns out thatfor each Cramer–Lundberg process, not only does a potential density exist, but wecan write it in semi-explicit terms with the help of scale functions. Note, in thestatement of the result, it is implicitly understood that W (q)(z) is identically zero forz < 0.

1 Formally, an excursions from the minimum may be thought of as the sequence of segments of thetrajectory of X given by XΘk−1+t : t ∈ (0,Θk] for all k ≥ 1 such that Θk−1 < ∞.

Page 45: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

5.2 Resolvent densities 39

Theorem 5.2. For each q≥ 0 and a > 0, the density u(q)(a,x,y) exists and is equalto

u(q)(a,x,y) =W (q)(x)W (q)(a− y)

W (q)(a)−W (q)(x− y) x,y ∈ [0,a] (5.2)

Lebsgue almost everywhere.

Proof. Define, for all x,y≥ 0 and q > 0,

R(q)(x,dy) =∫

0e−qt Px(Xt ∈ dy, t < τ

−0 )dt.

One may think of R(q) as the q-resolvent measure for the process X when killed onexiting [0,∞). Note that, for the same parameter regimes of x,y and q, we can alsowrite

R(q)(x,dy) =1qPx(Xeq ∈ dy,Xeq ≥ 0),

where, as usual, eq is an independent, exponentially distributed random variablewith parameter q > 0. Appealing to Theorem 5.1, we have that

R(q)(x,dy) =1qP(x+(Xeq −Xeq)+Xeq ∈ dy,−Xeq ≤ x)

=1q

∫[x−y,x]

P(−Xeq ∈ dz)P(Xeq −Xeq ∈ dy− x+ z).

By duality, Xeq −Xeq is equal in distribution to Xeq , which itself is exponentiallydistributed with parameter Φ(q). In addition, the law of −Xeq has been identified inCorollary 4.2. Using these facts we may write, for q,x,y≥ 0,

R(q)(x,dy) =∫

[x−y,x]

(1

Φ(q)W (q)(dz)−W (q)(z)dz

)Φ(q)e−Φ(q)(y−x+z)

dy.

In particular, this shows that, for x,q≥ 0, there exists a density, say r(q)(x,y), for themeasure R(q)(x,dy). Now note that

d[e−Φ(q)zW (q)(z)] = e−Φ(q)z[W (q)(dz)−Φ(q)W (q)(z)],

and, hence, straightforward integration gives us

r(q)(x,y) = e−Φ(q)yW (q)(x)−W (q)(x− y), x,y,q≥ 0.

Finally, we may use the expression for r(q) to compute the potential density u(q)

as follows. First note that, with the help of the strong Markov property,

Page 46: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

40 5 The Gerber–Shiu measure

qU (q)(a,x,dy) = Px(Xeq ∈ dy,Xeq ≥ 0,Xeq ≤ a)

= Px(Xeq ∈ dy,Xeq ≥ 0)

−Px(Xeq ∈ dy,Xeq ≥ 0,Xeq > a)

= Px(Xeq ∈ dy,Xeq ≥ 0)

−Px(Xτ [0,a] = a,τ [0,a] < eq)Pa(Xeq ∈ dy,Xeq ≥ 0).

The first and third of the three probabilities on the right-hand side above have beencomputed in the previous paragraph, the second probability is equal to

Ex(e−qτ+a ;τ+a < τ

−0 ) =

W (q)(x)W (q)(a)

.

In conclusion, we have that, for q≥ 0 and x ∈ [0,a], U (q)(a,x,dy) has a density

r(q)(x,y)−W (q)(x)W (q)(a)

r(q)(a,y), y ∈ [0,a],

which, after a short amount of algebra, can be shown to be equal to the right-handside of (5.2).

To complete the proof when q = 0, one may take limits in (5.2), noting thatthe measure U (q)(a,x,dy) is monotone increasing in y and that the scale functionis continuous in q (again, thanks to the Extended Continuity Theorem for Laplacetransforms).

The above proof contains the following corollary for the q-resolvent measureR(q)(x,dy).

Corollary 5.3. Fix q≥ 0. The q-resolvent measure for X killed on exiting [0,∞) hasdensity given by

r(q)(x,y) = e−Φ(q)yW (q)(x)−W (q)(x− y),

for x,y≥ 0.

5.3 More on Poisson integrals

Before putting together the results in the previous section to derive an expression forthe Gerber–Shiu measure, we need to briefly return to the issue of Poisson integrals.One can improve up on the result in Theorem 3.4 with a little more work.

Theorem 5.4. Suppose that f : R× [0,∞)× (−∞,0]× (0,∞)→×R is bounded andmeasurable. Then for all t ≥ 0,

Page 47: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

5.4 Gerber–Shiu measure and gambler’s ruin 41

Ex

(Nt

∑i=1

f (XTi−, XTi−, XTi−, ξi)

)= λE

(∫ t

0

∫(0,∞)

f (Xs−, X s−, X s−, u)F(du)ds).

One can reconstruct the proof of this theorem by following the main steps ofTheorem 3.4. In that case, it will be convenient to first show that, in the spirit ofTheorem 3.1, the triple (Xt , X t , X t) : t ≥ 0 is a Markov process.

5.4 Gerber–Shiu measure and gambler’s ruin

We now have all the tools we need to provide a characterisation of the Gerber–Shiumeasure (1.6) in terms of scale functions. In fact, we shall establish an identity fora slightly more general measure. With a slight abuse of notation, for a > 0 andx ∈ [0,a], define

K(q)(a,x,dy,dz)=Ex

[e−qτ

−0 ;−X

τ−0∈ dy, X

τ−0 −∈ dz, τ

−0 < τ

+a

], z∈ [0,a],y≥ 0.

Note that the Gerber–Shiu measure, previously called K(q)(x,dy,dz), satisfies

K(q)(x,dy,dz) = K(q)(∞,x,dy,dz),

for y,z≥ 0. Here is our main result.

Theorem 5.5 (Gerber–Shiu measure). Fix q≥ 0 and a > 0. Then

K(q)(a,x,dy,dz) = λ

W (q)(x)W (q)(a− z)−W (q)(a)W (q)(x− z)

W (q)(a)

F(z+dy)dz,

for x,z ∈ [0,a] and y≥ 0. Moreover,

K(q)(x,dy,dz) = λ

e−Φ(q)yW (q)(x)−W (q)(x− y)

F(z+dy)dz, (5.3)

for y,z≥ 0.

Proof. Fix q≥ 0 and x ∈ [0,a]. For the first identity, it suffices to show that, for allbounded continuous f : (0,∞)× [0,a] :→ [0,∞),

Ex

[e−qτ

−0 f (−X

τ−0,X

τ−0 −

);τ−0 < τ

+a

]= λ

∫ a

0

∫(0,∞)

f (y,z)u(q)(a,x,y)F(z+dy)dz. (5.4)

To this end, note that

τ−0 < τ+a =

∞⋃i=1

XTi < 0, XTi− ≤ a, XTi− ≥ 0,

Page 48: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

42 5 The Gerber–Shiu measure

where the union is taken over disjoint events. It follows with the help of Theorem5.4 that

Ex

[e−qτ

−0 f (−X

τ−0,X

τ−0 −

);τ−0 < τ

+a

]= Ex

[∞

∑i=1

1(XTi−−ξi<0)1(XTi−≤a)1(XTi−≥0)e−qTi f (−XTi−+ξi, XTi−)

]

= λ

∫(0,∞)

Ex

[∫∞

01(u>Xt−)1(X t−≤a)1(X t−≥0)e

−qt f (−Xt−+u, Xt−)dt

]F(du)

= λ

∫(0,∞)

Ex

[∫∞

01(u>Xt−)1(t<τ [0,a])e

−qt f (−Xt−+u, Xt−)dt

]F(du)

= λ

∫(0,∞)

∫[0,a]

∫∞

01(u>z)e

−qt f (u− z, z)Px(Xt ∈ dz, t < τ[0,a])dtF(du). (5.5)

Recalling the definition of U (q)(a,x,dz), it follows that

Ex

[e−qτ

−0 f (−X

τ−0,X

τ−0 −

);τ−0 < τ

+a

]=∫(0,∞)

∫ a

01(u>z) f (u− z, z)u(q)(a,x,z)dzF(du).

The right-hand side above is equal to (5.4), after a straightforward application ofFubini’s Theorem and a change of variables.

For the second part of the theorem, use monotonicity in a on the left- and right-hand side of (5.5) and take limits as a ↑∞. The consequence of this is that we recoverthe identity

Ex

[e−qτ

−0 f (−X

τ−0,X

τ−0 −

);τ−0 < ∞

]= λ

∫ a

0

∫(0,∞)

f (y,z)r(q)(x,y)F(z+dy)dz,

for all x,q≥ 0, from which (5.3) follows.

5.5 Comments

In the broader context, Theorem 5.1 is a simple example of one of the several state-ments that concerns the so-called Wiener-Hopf factorisation for Levy processes.See Chapter VI of Bertoin (1996) or Chapter 6 of Kyprianou (2012). The method ofanalysing the path of the Cramer-Lundberg process (and indeed any random walk)through a sequence of excursions from the minimum was largely popularised byFeller. See for example Chapter XII of Feller (1971). Many of the computationsconcerning resolvent densities are taken directly from Bertoin (1997) who deals

Page 49: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

5.5 Comments 43

with general spectrally negative Levy processes. However, older literature dealingwith the current setting also exists; see for example Suprun (1976).

Page 50: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around
Page 51: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

Chapter 6Reflection strategies

Let us now return to the first of the three cases in which we perturb the path of theCramer–Lundberg process through the payments of dividends. Recall that a refrac-tion strategy consists of paying dividends in such a way that, for a fixed thresholda> 0, any excess of the surplus above this level is instantaneously paid out. The cu-mulative dividend stream is thus given by Lt := (a∨X t)−a, for t ≥ 0. The resultingtrajectory satisfies the dynamics

Ut := Xt −Lt = Xt +a− (a∨X t), t ≥ 0,

with probabilities Px : x ∈ [0,a]. The net present value of dividends paid until ruinis thus given by ∫

ς

0e−qtdLt ,

where ς = inft > 0 : Ut < 0.It is more convenient to measure the reflected process from the threshold a. In

which case a−Ut : t ≥ 0, under Pa−x, is equal in law to Y xt : t ≥ 0, under

P, where we recall that Y xt := (x∨ X t)− Xt , t ≥ 0. Moreover, from this point of

view, the dividends that are paid out under Pa−x are equal in law to the process(x∨X t) : t ≥ 0 under P and the time ruin corresponds to

σa = inft > 0 : Y xt > a.

The key object of interest in this chapter is the net present value of the dividendspaid until ruin: ∫

σa

0e−qtd(x∨X t) =

∫σa

0e−qt1(X t≥x)dX t , (6.1)

where q≥ 0 is the force of interest.

45

Page 52: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

46 6 Reflection strategies

6.1 Perpetuities

Suppose that N= Nt : t ≥ 0 is a Poisson process with rate α > 0, ζi : i≥ 0 is asequence of i.i.d. random variables with common distribution function G and b > 0is a constant. The process

γt := bt +Nt

∑i=1

ζi, t ≥ 0

is a compound Poisson process with positive jumps and positive drift. Then in thespirit of (2.3) we can compute its Laplace exponent as follows:

E(e−θγt ) = e−φ(θ)t , t,θ ≥ 0,

whereφ(θ) = bθ +α

∫(0,∞)

(1− e−θx)G(dx).

The key mathematical object that will help us analyse the net present value ofdividends paid until ruin is the so-called perpetuity∫ ep

0e−qγt dt, (6.2)

where, as usual, ep is an independent exponential random variable with rate p ≥ 0and q≥ 0. We have the following main result which characterises its moments.

Theorem 6.1. For all n ∈ N,

E[(∫ ep

0e−qγt dt

)n]= n!

n

∏k=1

1p+φ(qk)

.

Proof. Define, for t ≥ 0,

Jt =∫

te−qγu1(u<ep)du.

Our objective is to compute, for n ∈ N,

Ψn := E(Jn0 ) .

To this end, note that

ddt

Jnt =−nJn−1

t e−qγt 1(t<ep),

we obtainJn

0 − Jnt = n

∫ t

0e−qγu1(u<ep)J

n−1u du. (6.3)

Page 53: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

6.2 Decomposing paths at the maximum 47

Using that γt : t ≥ 0 has stationary and independent increments together with thelack of memory property, we have

Jt = e−qγt 1(t<ep)J∗0 ,

where J∗0 is independent of γu : u≤ t and has the same distribution as J0. In con-clusion, taking expectations in (6.3) we find that

Ψn

(1−E(e−nqγt 1(t<ep))

)= nΨn−1

∫ t

0E(e−nqγu1(u<ep))du. (6.4)

SinceE(

e−nqγt 1(t<ep)

)= exp−(p+φ(nq))t,

it follows thatΨn =

np+φ(nq)

Ψn−1.

Iterating gives the result.

6.2 Decomposing paths at the maximum

Let us now look at the process X t−Xt : t ≥ 0 and consider how the time it spendsin the state zero, as well as the excursions it makes from the state zero, will reveal yetanother path decomposition in the spirit of “Bernoulli trials” that we have alreadyseen twice previously.

For convenience write Yt in place of Y 0t , t ≥ 0. Define S0 = 0 and

S∗0 = inft > 0 : Yt > 0.

Then continue recursively, so that, for k ∈ N, on Sk−1 < ∞,

Sk = inft > S∗k−1 : Yt = 0 and S∗k = inft > Sk : Yt > 0

and sethk = sup

s∈[S∗k−1,Sk]

Ys.

Finally, defineυa = mink ≥ 1 : hk > a.

In words, for k ≥ 1, the intervals [Sk−1,S∗k−1) are the successive periods that theprocess Y spends at the origin. Equivalently, they are the intervals of time that theprocess X is increasing. The intervals [S∗k−1,Sk) are the successive periods that theprocess Y undertakes an excursion from the origin. Equivalently they are the inter-vals of time that the process X does not increase (and hence X makes an excursionaway from X). Moreover, appealing again to the logic of Bernoulli trials, υa is the

Page 54: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

48 6 Reflection strategies

index of the first excursion from the maximum which exceeds a height a. Accord-ingly, υa is geometrically distributed with rate

ra =∫(0,a]

F(dx)P−x(τ−−a < τ

+0 ).

Next, again appealing to the concept of Bernoulli trials, the triples (S∗k−Sk, Sk+1−S∗k , hk) : k = 0, · · · ,υa− 1 are i.i.d., as well as being independent of υa, and havethe same law as the triple (eλ , τ

+0 ,−X

τ+0) under the measure

∫(0,a] F(dx)P−x(·|τ+0 <

τ+a ). Finally, this sequence of triples is also independent of the triple (S∗υa −Sυa , Sυa+1− S∗υa , hυa), which itself is also independent of υa and has the law of(eλ , τ

+0 ,−X

τ+0) under the measure

∫(0,a] F(dx)P−x(·|τ+a < τ

+0 ).

X

Y

a

h4

S0S3

χ2

χ3

χ1

t

S∗0 S∗1S1S2 S∗3

h3

h2h1

γt

S∗2

Fig. 6.1 Decomposing the path of X into excursions from its maximum.

Now note that X increases if and only if Y is zero. Moreover, when it increases,it does so at a rate c. In other words,

X t = c∫ t

01(Ys=0)ds. (6.5)

With this in mind, note that the sequence of positive random variables

Page 55: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

6.2 Decomposing paths at the maximum 49

XS∗k−XSk : k = 0, · · · ,υa−1= c(S∗k −Sk) : k = 0, · · · ,υa−1

is nothing more than an independent geometric number of independent exponentialrandom variables, each with rate λ/c. Therefore, the maximum height reached byX when it first drops a distance a below its previous maximum,

XS∗υa−1

= cυa−1

∑k=0

(S∗k −Sk),

is exponentially distributed with rate λ ra/c. In fact, if we define χk = XS∗k−1, k =

1, · · · ,υa, then the pairs(χk,hk) : k = 1, · · · ,υa

are times of arrival and the marks of a marked Poisson process up until the first markexceeding a in value, where the arrival rate is λ/c and the marks are distributedaccording to

H(dy) =∫(0,∞)

F(dx)P−x(−Xτ+0∈ dy), y≥ 0.

Appealing to the Poisson thinning theorem, this means that

(χk,hk) : k = 1, · · · ,υa−1

is equal in law to the times of arrival and the marks of a Poisson processes, sayNa = Nat : t ≥ 0, with arrival rate αa = λ (1− ra)/c and mark distribution∫

(0,a]F(dx)P−x(−X

τ+0∈ dy|τ+0 < τ

+a ), y ∈ [0,a],

when sampled up to an independent and exponentially distributed random time, epa ,with parameter pa = λ ra/c. Note in particular, for t > 0, on the event epa > tthe process Nat counts the number of excursions (of height less than a) that haveoccurred until the process X reaches a height t.

Fix t > 0. On the event t < epa, let us write

γt := infs > 0 : X s > t.

That is, the amount of time it takes for X to climb to the level t. We can spilt the timehorizon [0,γt ] into the time that Y spends at zero (i.e. the time that X is climbing)plus the time that Y undertakes excursions from the origin (i.e. the time that X isstationary). On the one hand, thanks to the relation (6.5), the time that Y spends atzero until X reaches the level t is given by∫

γt

01(Ys=0)ds =

1c

X γt =tc.

Page 56: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

50 6 Reflection strategies

On the other hand, there are, in total, Nat excursions of Y from zero, say ζi : i =1, · · · ,Nat , where ζi = Si−S∗i−1. Moreover, the ζi are i.i.d. with common distributiongiven by

Ga(du) =∫(0,a]

F(dx)P−x(τ+0 ∈ du|τ+0 < τ

+a ), u≥ 0.

In conclusion, we have that, on t < epa,

γt = bt +Nat

∑i=1

ζi, , t ≥ 0,

where b = 1/c.Putting all these pieces together, we develop the expression for net present value

of dividends paid until ruin (6.1) for the special case that x = 0. Indeed, by makinga simple change of variables, t 7→ γs, we have∫

σa

0e−qtdX t =

∫∞

01(t<S∗

υa−1)e−qtdX t =

∫∞

01(u<XS∗

υa−1)e−qγudu =

∫ epa

0e−qγudu.

We therefore see that, when the surplus process starts at the barrier a, equivalentlyx = 0 in (6.1), the net present value of dividends until ruin is equal distribution tothe perpetuity (6.2) for appropriate choices of pa,b,αa and Ga, as given above.

If we would be able to say a little more about these quantities, then we willbe able to develop an expression for the n-th moments of the net present value ofdividends paid at ruin, at least when the surplus process starts at the barrier, by usingTheorem 6.1. That is, we would be able to give an explicit expression for

E[(∫

σa

0e−qtdX t

)n].

Once again, scale functions come to our assistance.

6.3 Derivative of the scale function

Before we can proceed to develop identities using scale functions, we need to say afew words about differentiability as derivatives of the scale functions will appear inthe forthcoming analysis. Recall that, for each q≥ 0, the function W (q) is monotone.

Lemma 6.2. For x≥ 0,

W (q)(dx)=1c

δ0(dx)+(λ +q)

cW (q)(x)dx−

c

∫(0,x]

W (q)(x− y)F(dy))

dx. (6.6)

Page 57: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

6.3 Derivative of the scale function 51

In particular,

W (q)′+ (x) =

(λ +q)c

W (q)(x)−(

λ

c

∫(0,x]

W (q)(x− y)F(dy)), (6.7)

for x > 0, where W (q)′+ (x) is the right derivative of W (q) at x. Moreover, W (q) is

continuously differentiable on (0,∞) if and only if F has no atoms.

Proof. Note also that, where as W (q)(0−) = 0, we have that, for q≥ 0,

W (q)(0) = limβ↑∞

∫∞

0βe−βxW (q)(x)dx

= limβ↑∞

β

ψ(β )−q

= limβ↑∞

1c−

∫∞

0 e−βxF(x)dx−q/β

=1c.

It follows that W (q)(dx) has an atom at zero of size 1/c.Integrating (4.1) by parts, we have, on the one hand,∫

[0,∞)e−βxW (q)(dx) =

∫(0,∞)

e−βxW (q)(dx)+1c=

β

ψ(β )−q.

On the other hand,

(λ +q)c

∫∞

0e−βxW (q)(x)dx− λ

c

∫∞

0e−βx

∫(0,x]

W (q)(x− y)F(dy)dx

=1c

(λ +q)ψ(β )−q

− 1c

λ

ψ(β )−q

∫(0,∞)

e−βxF(dx)

=1c

λ∫(0,∞)(1− e−βx)F(dx)+q

ψ(β )−q

=1c

cβ −ψ(β )+qψ(β )−q

ψ(β )−q− 1c.

Comparing transforms, it follows that, (6.6) holds. In particular, this implies thatW (q) is an absolutely continuous (and hence a continuous) function on (0,∞).

Thanks to the just-proved fact that W (q) is a continuous function on (0,∞), in-specting the right hand side of (6.6), we see that its density with respect to Lebesguemeasure is, in general, right-continuous. The formula for W (q)′

+ (x) on (0,∞) in (6.7)thus follows. Moreover, it is continuous if and only if the convolution is continu-ous. This is equivalent to requiring that F has no atoms. In that case, on (0,∞), we

Page 58: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

52 6 Reflection strategies

have that W (q) is absolutely continuous with a continuous version of its density, thusmaking it continuously differentiable.

6.4 Net-present-value of dividends at ruin

Let us use a completely different technique to examine the first moments of the netpresent value of dividends paid at ruin when the initial value of the surplus is a.This will give us an expression from which we can glean the desired informationabout the quantities p and φ mentioned in the previous section. Thereafter we canreturn to the more general problem of the n-th moments of the net present value ofdividends paid until ruin when the initial value of the surplus is x ∈ [0,a].

Lemma 6.3. For all q≥ 0,

Ea[∫

ς

0e−qtdLt

]= E

[∫σa

0e−qtdX t

]=

W (q)(a)

W (q)′+ (a)

. (6.8)

Proof. The proof works by splitting the integral∫

σa0 e−qtdX t at the time of the first

jump of X . Note that X initially increases at rate c for an independent and exponen-tially period of time, with rate λ , and then undertakes a jump of size ξ1 downwards.This jump kick-starts an excursion from the maximum. This excursion will eithercause ruin, or its height will remain below the level a and X will return to its previ-ous maximum, during which time no dividends will have been paid. Thereafter, bythe strong Markov property, the process we have just describes begins again, exceptthat future payments are additionally discounted by the time that has already lapsed.Let

Va = E[∫

σa

0e−qtdX t

].

Following the description given above, we have, with the help of Theorem 4.5,

Va = E[∫ eλ

0e−qtcdu

]+E

[e−qeλ E−ξ1

[e−qτ+0 1(τ+0 <τ

−−a)

]1(ξ1≤a)Va]

=c

qE(1− e−qeλ )+E(e−qeλ )

∫(0,a]

W (q)(a− y)W (q)(a)

F(dy)Va

=c

λ +q+

λ

λ +qVa∫(0,a]

W (q)(a− y)W (q)(a)

F(dy). (6.9)

Substituting (6.7) into (6.9) and solving for Va now gives the statement of the theo-rem.

Taking account of the discussion in Sect. 6.2 as well as the conclusion of Theo-rem 6.1, we see that

Page 59: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

6.5 Comments 53

Va =1

pa+φa(q)=

W (q)(a)

W (q)′+ (a)

,

where φa(θ) = bθ +αa∫(0,∞)(1− e−θx)Ga(dx), θ ≥ 0. It follows that, for n≥ 1,

Ea[(∫

ς

0e−qtdLt

)n]= E

[(∫σa

0e−qtdX t

)n]= n!

n

∏k=1

1pa+φa(qk)

= n!n

∏k=1

W (qk)(a)

W (qk)′+ (a)

.

We are almost done. All we need now is to deal with the case that the surplusprocess starts from any x ∈ [0,a]. This turns out to be a minor adjustment to theformula above. Indeed, note that, when the Cramer–Lundberg process is issued fromx∈ [0,a], dividends are not paid until X reaches the threshold a, providing ruin doesnot occur before hand. In that case, future dividend payments are discounted by thetime elapsed until reaching the threshold. Hence, by the strong Markov property,

Ex

[(∫ς

0e−qtdLt

)n]= E

[e−qnτ+a 1(τ+a <τ

−0 )

]Va

In conclusion, taking account of Theorem 4.5, we have the following main result forthis chapter.

Theorem 6.4. For q≥ 0 and x ∈ [0,a],

Ex

[(∫ς

0e−qtdLt

)n]= n!

W (qn)(x)W (qn)(a)

n

∏k=1

W (qk)(a)

W (qk)′+ (a)

.

6.5 Comments

As alluded to in the introduction, reflection strategies for Cramer–Lundberg pro-cesses emerge naturally from the control problem (1.7). Higher moments of the netpresent value of reflection strategies were first considered in Dickson and Waters(2004) for the case of exponentially distributed jumps. The connection with scalefunctions was made simultaneously in Renaud and Zhou (2007) and Kyprianou andPalmowski (2007). The latter of these two identifies the net present value of divi-dends paid until ruin as a perpetuity The review article Bertoin and Yor (2005) givesan interesting overview of perpetuities for Levy processes in general. Decompo-sition the paths of the Cramer–Lundberg process at the maximum and identifyingexcursions through a marked Poisson process is an idea that goes back to Green-wood (1980). Ultimately, however, it is the natural continuous-time analogue of

Page 60: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

54 6 Reflection strategies

the discrete analysis that occurs when one decomposes paths at the minimum, andtherefore relates back to Feller’s ideas on the renewal process of maxima (or in-deed minima) for random walks. For further information on the smoothness of scalefunctions, the reader is referred to Cohen et al. (2012).

Page 61: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

Chapter 7Perturbation-at-maxima strategies

In this chapter, we dig a little deeper in the decomposition discussed in Sect. 6.2.In particular, we bring out in more detail the characterisation of the marked Poissonprocess of excursion heights in terms of scale functions. This will give us help usanalyse the case where tax is paid in proportion to increments of the maximum.

Recall that if γ : [0,∞)→ [0,∞), then the surplus process, when taxed at rate γ

with respect to its maximum process, yields an aggregate

Ut = Xt −∫(0,t]

γ(Xu)dXu, t ≥ 0.

We restrict ourselves to the cases mentioned in the introduction: the heavy-taxregime, for which γ : [0,∞)→ (1,∞) and the light-tax regime, for which γ : [0,∞)→(0,1). The case of a reflection strategy, when γ(x) = 1(x≥a), sits between these tworegimes.

7.1 Re-hung excursions

Let us start by noting that, for all x≥ 0, under Px,

Ut = At −Yt , t ≥ 0, (7.1)

where we recall that Yt = X t −Xt and

At = X t −∫ t

0γ(Xu)dXu = γx(X t), t ≥ 0,

withγx(s) := s−

∫ s

xγ(y)dy = x+

∫ s

x[1− γ(y)]dy, s≥ x.

55

Page 62: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

56 7 Perturbation-at-maxima strategies

The last equality shows us that process A = At : t ≥ 0 is strictly increasing (resp.decreasing) when γ belongs to the light-tax (resp. heavy-tax) regime on account ofthe fact that the same is true γx. (This observation will also be important later aswe will use the inverse function γ−1

x , which, accordingly, is well defined in bothregimes.) Moreover, A is stationary in value if and only if the process Y is non-zerovalued. As a consequence we may interpret (7.1) as a path decomposition in whichexcursions of X from its maximum (equivalently excursions of Y away from zero)are ‘hung’ off the trajectory of A during its stationary periods. See Fig. 7.1 for avisual interpretation of this heuristic.

t

Ut

x

Fig. 7.1 Re-hanging excursions from the process A in the heavy-tax case.

In the light-tax regime, since A is an increasing process which is stationary when-ever the process Y is non-zero valued, we have that

←−U t := sup

s≤tUs = Agt = At ,

where gt = sups≤ t : Ys = 0. Hence, unless it is assumed that∫∞

x(1− γ(s))ds = ∞, (7.2)

in the light-tax regime, the perturbed process U will have an almost surely finiteglobal maximum.

Page 63: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

7.2 Marked Poisson process revisited 57

In contrast, in the heavy-tax regime, so that A is a decreasing, similar reasoningshows that −→

U t := sups≥t

Us = Adt = At ,

where dt = infs > t : Ys = 0. Hence the process U is always bounded by its initialvalue x.

Henceforth, our analysis of the process U will centre around further analysis ofthe excursions of X from its maximum X . In particular, their representation througha marked Poisson process, such as we saw in Sect. 6.2, will proved to be extremelyuseful. In the next section, we shall revisit this marked Poisson process and look ata more detailed characterisation of its parameters in terms of scale functions.

7.2 Marked Poisson process revisited

Recall from the previous chapter that we write Yt = X t−Xt , for t ≥ 0. Moreover, werecursively defined S0 = 0,

S∗0 = inft > 0 : Yt > 0.

and, for k ∈ N, on Sk−1 < ∞,

Sk = inft > S∗k−1 : Yt = 0 and S∗k = inft > Sk : Yt > 0.

The k-th excursions from the maxima occurs over the time intervals [S∗k−1,Sk], andthe height of the excursion is denoted by

hk = sups∈[S∗k−1,Sk]

Ys.

Now letυ∞ = mink ≥ 1 : Sk = ∞,

the index of the first excursion which is infinite in length. Note, by Lemma 3.10,that if ψ ′(0+)≥ 0, then υ∞ = ∞ almost surely. Moreover, if ψ ′(0+)< ∞ then υ∞ isgeometrically distributed with parameter

r∞ =∫(0,∞)

F(dx)P−x(τ+0 = ∞).

In both cases it is clear that we may equivalently

υ∞ = mink ≥ 1 : hk = ∞.

Recall also that χk = XS∗k−1, where now, we allow the index to run from 1 to υ∞.

In the spirit of the reasoning in Sect. 6.2, we also note that

Page 64: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

58 7 Perturbation-at-maxima strategies

(χk,hk) : k = 1, · · · ,υ∞

is equal to times of arrival and the marks of a marked Poisson process, say N= Nt :t ≥ 0, with rate λ/c up until the first mark which is infinite in value. Moreover,marks are i.i.d. (and independent of N) with common distribution

G(dy) :=∫(0,∞)

F(dx)P−x(−Xτ+0∈ dy), y ∈ [0,∞].

Let us return to the event τ+a < τ−0 , for a > 0. Note that, for 0≤ x≤ a,

Px(τ+a < τ

−0 ) = P(hk ≤ x+χk for k = 1, · · · ,Na−x).

Fig. 7.2 gives a visual explanation of this equality.

hNa−x

h2

h1

x

a

χ2

Fig. 7.2 Excursion heights as the process X climbs from x to a.

Classical theory for Poisson processes tells us that, conditional on Na−x = n,the arrival times χ1, · · · ,χn are equal in law to an ordered i.i.d. sample of uni-formly distributed points on [0,a− x]. Then,

Page 65: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

7.3 Gambler’s ruin for the perturbed process 59

P(hk ≤ x+χk for k = 1, · · · ,Na−x)

=∞

∑n=0

e−λc (a−x) 1

n!

(λ (a− x)

c

)n(∫ a−x

0G(x+ t)

1(a− x)

dt)n

= exp

λ

c

∫ a−x

0(G(x+ t)−1)dt

= exp

−λ

c

∫ a

xG(y)dy

,

where G(y) = 1−G(y), for y≥ 0.It was proved earlier, however, that Px(τ

+a < τ

−0 ) =W (x)/W (a), where W is the

scale function associated to X . This leads us to the identity

W (x)W (a)

= exp−λ

c

∫ a

xG(y)dy

. (7.3)

Note that this confirms the conclusion of Lemma 9.23 that W is almost everywheredifferentiable. Taking account of the above discussion, we come to rest at the fol-lowing important result.

Theorem 7.1. Recall that W ′+ the right derivative of W on (0,∞). Then, for all x> 0,

λ

cG(x) =

W ′+(x)W (x)

(7.4)

Later on in this chapter, when using this result, the quantity G will always appearin the context of a Lebesgue integral. In that case, it suffices to write W ′/W on theright hand side of (7.4), without needing to refer to the right derivative of W .

7.3 Gambler’s ruin for the perturbed process

LetT−0 := inft > 0 : Ut < 0,

where we understand, as usual, inf /0 := ∞. We shall also use the earlier introducedstopping time

τ+a = inft > 0 : Xt > a= inft > 0 : X t > a.

In the light-tax case, the function γx we may write for all values b in the range of γx,

τ+

γ−1x (b)

= T+b , (7.5)

whereT+

b = inft > 0 : Ut > b.

Page 66: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

60 7 Perturbation-at-maxima strategies

Theorem 7.2. Fix x > 0 and assume (7.2) in the case of the light-tax regime. In thecase of the heavy-tax regime, define

s∗(x) = infs≥ x : γx(s)< 0.

Then, for any q≥ 0, and 0≤ x ≤ a in the case of light-tax, resp. 0≤ x ≤ a < s∗(x)in the case of heavy-tax, we have

Ex[e−qτ+a 1τ+a <T−0

]= exp

(−∫ a

x

W (q)′(γx(s))W (q)(γx(s))

ds). (7.6)

Before moving to the proof of this result, let us remark that, taking account of theequivalence (7.5) in the light-tax regime, (7.6) can be more conveniently written as

Ex[e−qT+

a 1T+a <T−0

]= exp

(−∫

γ−1x (a)

x

W (q)′(γx(s))W (q)(γx(s))

ds).

Proof (of Theorem 7.2). The proof does not distinguish between the two differ-ent regimes of light- and heavy-tax. All that is required in what follows is thatγ−1

x (a) < ∞. Thereafter, the proof needs little more than to recycle a number ofexisting computations we have already seen.

Using the Esscher transform and appealing to similar reasoning found in theproof of Theorem 7.1, we have

Ex[e−qτ+a 1τ+a <T−0

]= e−(a−x)Φ(q)PΦ(q)

x (τ+a < T−0 )

= e−(a−x)Φ(q)PΦ(q)(hk ≤ γx(x+χk) for k = 1, · · · ,Na−x)

= e−(a−x)Φ(q)∞

∑n=0

e−λc (a−x) 1

n!

(λ (a− x)

c

)n(∫ a−x

0GΦ(q)(γx(x+ t))

1(a− x)

dt)n

= exp(−∫ a−x

0Φ(q)+

λ

cGΦ(q)

(γx(x+ t))ds), (7.7)

where GΦ(q) plays the role of the quantity G, but under the measure PΦ(q) andGΦ(q)

= 1−GΦ(q). In particular, recalling the conclusion of Theorems 2.4 and 7.1,we have for Lebesgue almost every x≥ 0,

λ

cGΦ(q)

(x) =W ′

Φ(q)(x)

WΦ(q)(x).

Moreover, recalling from the definition (4.4) that W (q)(x) = eΦ(q)xWΦ(q)(x), x ≥ 0,we have that, for Lebesgue almost every x≥ 0,

W (q)′(x)W (q)(x)

= Φ(q)+W ′

Φ(q)(x)

WΦ(q)(x).

Page 67: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

7.4 Continuous ruin with heavy tax 61

Putting the pieces together in (7.7) produces the required identity.

Theorem 7.2 motivates some interesting observations concerning the event ofruin, T−0 < ∞. First, suppose that we are in the heavy-tax regime and s∗(x) < ∞.In that case

Px(T−0 < ∞)≥ Px(τ+s∗(x) < ∞)∨Px(τ

−0 < ∞).

Indeed, on the event τ+s∗(x) < ∞, we have Xτ+s∗(x)−X

τ+s∗(x)

= 0 and hence Uτ+s∗(x)

=

Aτ+s∗(x)

= γx(s∗(x)) = 0. Moreover, since Ut ≤ Xt for all t ≥ 0, it follows that

τ−0 < ∞ ⊆ T−0 < ∞. In the event that limsupt↑∞ Xt = ∞ almost surely, wehave Px(τ

+s∗(x) < ∞) = 1. Otherwise, it follows that Px(τ

−0 < ∞) = 1. Either way,

Px(T−0 < ∞) = 1.Remaining in the heavy-tax regime, suppose that s∗(x) = ∞. Then from (7.6), by

taking limits as a ↑ ∞, we get an expression for the ruin probability,

Px(T−0 < ∞) = 1− exp(−∫

x

W ′(γx(s))W (γx(s))

ds). (7.8)

However, the right-hand side above turns out to be equal to 1. Recalling thatW ′(x)/W (x) = λG(x)/c for Lebesgue almost every x > 0, since G(x) is non-increasing on (0,∞) and γx(s)≤ x for all s≥ 0, the claim follows.

Finally, in the light-tax regime, where necessarily s∗(x) = ∞, the reasoning thatleads to (7.8) still applies, from which one may deduce that this probability need notbe unity. Indeed, suppose that we take the function γ to be simply constant in value,also denoted by γ ∈ (0,1), and ψ ′(0+)> 0. In that case, γx(s) = (s− x)(1− γ)+ x,and hence, noting that d[logW (x)]/dx =W ′(x)/W (x) Lebesgue almost everywhereon (0,∞), after a change of variables, we have

Px(T−0 < ∞) = 1− exp(− 1(1− γ)

∫∞

x

W ′(u)W (u)

du)

(7.9)

= 1−(ψ′(0+)W (x)

)1/(1−γ), (7.10)

where we have used, from (4.2), that W (∞) = 1/ψ ′(0+).

7.4 Continuous ruin with heavy tax

Although the perturbed process is almost surely ruined in the heavy-tax regime, it isinteresting to note that, unlike a Cramer-Lundberg process, there are two differentways to become ruined. The first, i.e. by a jump downwards, is a property inheritedfrom the underlying process, X . The other way of becoming ruined, which we referto as continuous ruin, is the result of continuously passing the origin at the momentin time that an increment in X brings U along the curve γx just as it intersects the

Page 68: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

62 7 Perturbation-at-maxima strategies

origin. Said another way, type II creeping corresponds to the event that τ+s∗(x) =T−0 , in which case, as remarked upon above, U

τ+s∗(x)

= 0. This can only happen with

positive probability if s∗(x)< ∞.The following result is a corollary to Theorem 7.2 on account of the fact that its

proof is identical, albeit that one replaces a by s∗(x).

Corollary 7.3. Fix x > 0, and suppose that γ : [0,∞)→ (1,∞) such that s∗(x)< ∞.Then, for all q≥ 0,

Ex[e−qT−0 1T−0 =τ

+s∗(x)

]= exp

(−∫ s∗(x)

x

W (q)′(γx(s))W (q)(γx(s))

ds).

If we take the case that γ(s) is a constant valued in (1,∞), again denoted byγ , then we may simplify the formula in the above corollary. Indeed, we haveγx(s) = x− (s− x)(γ − 1) and hence s∗(x) = γx/(γ − 1). Moreover, a straightfor-ward computation, in a similar vein to the computation in (7.10), gives us

Px(continuous ruin) = exp(− 1(γ−1)

∫ x

0

W ′(u)W (u)

du)=

(1

cW (x)

)1/(γ−1)

,

where we have used, from Lemma 9.23, that W (0) = 1/c.

7.5 Net-present-value of tax

In the spirit of the Gerber–Shiu-type results presented in the previous sections, ourfinal theorem for perturbed processes (with either light- or heavy-tax) considers thenet-present-value of dividends paid until ruin.

Theorem 7.4. Fix x ≥ 0 and assume (7.2) in the case of the light-tax regime. Then,for q≥ 0,

Ex

[∫ T−0

0e−qu

γ(Xu)dXu

]=∫ s∗(x)

xexp(−∫ t

x

W (q)′(γx(s))W (q)(γx(s))

ds)

γ(t)dt.

Proof. Appealing to a straightforward change of variables and Fubini’s Theorem,we have

Ex

[∫ T−0

0e−qu

γ(Xu)dXu

]= Ex

[∫ s∗(x)

01(u<T−0 )e

−quγ(Xu)dXu

]= Ex

[∫ s∗(x)

x1(τ+t <T−0 )e

−qτ+t γ(t)dt

]=∫ s∗(x)

xEx

[e−qτ

+t 1(τ+t <T−0 )

]γ(t)dt.

Page 69: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

7.6 Comments 63

The proof is completed by taking advantage of the identity in (7.6).

We again get a simplification of this formula in the case that we take the functionγ(s) to be a constant, for either the light-tax or heavy-tax regime. For example whenγ(s) is equal to the constant γ ∈ (0,1), one gets, for x,q≥ 0,

Ex

[∫ T−0

0e−qu

γ(Xu)dXu

]=

γ

1− γ

∫∞

x

(W (q)(x)W (q)(z)

)1/(1−γ)

dz.

7.6 Comments

The representation of the scale function in the form (7.3) is lifted from Theorem 8 ofChapter VII in Bertoin (1996). This representation and the observation that excur-sions are re-hung from the process A form a key part of the analysis in Albrecher etal. (2008), Kyprianou and Zhou (2009) and Kyprianou and Ott (2012), in increasingdegrees of generality, respectively.

Page 70: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around
Page 71: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

Chapter 8Refraction strategies

Let us return to the case of the refracted Cramer-Lundberg process. That is, thesolution to the stochastic differential equation

Zt = Xt −α

∫ t

01(Zs>b)ds, t ≥ 0, (8.1)

also written asdZt = dXt −α1(Zt>b)dt, t ≥ 0.

We shall charge ourselves with the task of providing identities for the probability ofruin as well as the net-present-value of dividends paid until ruin. As we have seenearlier for the case of a Cramer–Lundberg process, it turns out to be convenient tofirst derive an identity for the resolvent of the refracted process until first exiting afinite interval. It turns out that all identities can be written in terms of two scale func-tions for two different Cramer-Lundberg processes. As one might expect, however,these identities are somewhat more complicated however.

8.1 Pathwise existence and uniqueness

Before we can look at functionals which pertain to Gerber-Shiu theory, we are con-fronted with the more pressing issue of whether a solution to this SDE exists. As thereader might already suspect, problems my occur when α ≥ c, as, in that case, whendividends are paid, it is at a higher rate than the premiums collected. We thereforeassume throughout that

0 < α < c.

Theorem 8.1. The SDE (8.1) has a unique pathwise solution.

Proof. Define the times T ↑n and T ↓n recursively as follows. We set T ↓0 = 0 and, forn = 1,2, . . .,

65

Page 72: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

66 8 Refraction strategies

T ↑n = inft > T ↓n−1 : Xt −α

n−1

∑i=1

(T ↓i −T ↑i )> b,

T ↓n = inft > T ↑n : Xt −α

n−1

∑i=1

(T ↓i −T ↑i )−α(t−T ↑n )< b.

The difference between the two consecutive times T ↑n and T ↓n is strictly positive.Moreover, limn↑∞ T ↑n = limn↑∞ T ↓n = ∞, almost surely. Now we construct a solutionto (8.1), U = Zt : t ≥ 0, as follows. The process is issued from X0 = x and

Zt =

Xt −α ∑

ni=1(T

↓i −T ↑i ), for t ∈ [T ↓n ,T

↑n+1) and n≥ 0,

Xt −α ∑n−1i=1 (T

↓i −T ↑i )−α(t−T ↑n ), for t ∈ [T ↑n ,T

↓n ) and n≥ 1.

Note that the times T ↑n and T ↓n , for n = 1,2, . . ., can then be identified as

T ↑n = inft > T ↓n−1 : Zt > b, T ↓n = inft > T ↑n : Zt < b.

HenceZt = Xt −α

∫ t

01Zs>bds, t ≥ 0.

For uniqueness of this solution, suppose that Z(1)t : t ≥ 0 and Z(2)

t : t ≥ 0 aretwo pathwise solutions to (8.1). Then, writing

∆t =U (1)t −U (2)

t =−α

∫ t

0(1U(1)

s >b−1U(2)

s >b)ds,

it follows from integration by parts that

∆2t =−2α

∫ t

0∆s(1U(1)

s >b−1U(2)

s >b)ds.

Thanks to the fact that 1x>b is an increasing function, it follows from the aboverepresentation, that, for all t ≥ 0, ∆ 2

t ≤ 0 and hence ∆t = 0 almost surely. Thisconcludes the proof of existence and uniqueness amongst the class of pathwise so-lutions.

Let us momentarily return to the reason why U is referred to as a refracted Levyprocesses. A simple sketch of a realisation of the path of U (see for example Fig.8.1) gives the impression that the trajectory of U “refracts” each time it passes con-tinuously from (−∞,b] into (b,∞), much as a beam of light does when passing fromone medium to another.

The construction of the unique pathwise solution described above clearly showsthat U is adapted to the natural filtration F = Ft : t ≥ 0 of X . Conversely, since,for all t ≥ 0, Xt = Zt +α

∫ t0 1Zs>bds, it is also clear that X is adapted to the natural

filtration of U . We can use this observation to reason that U is a strong Markovprocess.

Page 73: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

8.2 Gambler’s ruin and resolvent density 67

Fig. 8.1 A sample path of U when the driving Levy process is a Cramer–Lundberg process. Itstrajectory “refracts” as it passes continuously above the horizontal dashed line at level b.

To this end, suppose that T is a stopping time with respect to F. Then define aprocess Z whose dynamics are those of Zt : t ≤ T issued from x ∈ R and, givenFT , on the event that T < ∞, it continues to evolve on the time horizon [T,∞) asthe unique solution, say Z, to (8.1) driven by the Levy process X = XT+s−XT : s≥0 and issued from ZT . Note that by construction, on T < ∞, the dependence ofZt : t ≥ T on Zt : t ≤ T occurs only through the value ZT = ZT . Note also thatfor t > 0,

ZT+t = Zt

= ZT + Xt −α

∫ t

01Zs>bds

= x+XT −α

∫ T

01Zs>bds+(XT+t −XT )−α

∫ t

01ZT+s>bds

= x+XT+t −α

∫ T+t

01Zs>bds,

thereby showing that Z solves (8.1) issued from x. Since (8.1) has a unique pathwisesolution, this solution must be Z and therefore possesses the strong Markov property.

8.2 Gambler’s ruin and resolvent density

Let us now introduce the stopping times for Z,

κ+a := inft > 0 : Zt > a and κ

−0 := inft > 0 : Zt < 0,

where a > 0. We are interested in studying the ruin probability

Page 74: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

68 8 Refraction strategies

Px(κ−0 < ∞), (8.2)

as well as the expected net present value of dividends paid until ruin,

αEx

(∫κ−0

0e−qt1Zt>bdt

). (8.3)

Not unlike our treatment of the analogous object for the Cramer–Lundberg process,it turns out to be more convenient to first study the seemingly more complex two-sided exit problem. To this end, let Λ = Λt : t ≥ 0, where Λt = Xt−αt and denoteby Px the law of the process Λ when issued from x (with Ex as the associated expec-tation operator). For each q≥ 0, W (q) and Z(q) denote, as usual, the q-scale functionsassociated with X . We shall write W(q) for the q-scale function associated with Λ .For convenience, we will write

w(q)(x;y) =W (q)(x− y)+α1(x≥b)

∫ x

bW(q)(x− z)W (q)′(z− y)dz,

for x,y ∈ R and q ≥ 0. We have two main results concerning the gambler’s ruinproblem, from which more can be said about the quantities (8.2) and (8.3).

Theorem 8.2. For q≥ 0 and 0≤ x,b≤ a we have

Ex

(e−qκ+

a 1κ+a <κ

−0

)=

w(q)(x;0)w(q)(a;0)

. (8.4)

Theorem 8.3. For q≥ 0 and 0≤ x,y,b≤ a,∫∞

0e−qtPx(Zt ∈ dy, t < κ

−0 ∧κ

+a )dt

= 1y∈[b,a]

w(q)(x;0)w(q)(a;0)

W(q)(a− y)−W(q)(x− y)

dy

+1y∈[0,b)

w(q)(x;0)w(q)(a;0)

w(q)(a;y)−w(q)(x;y)

dy. (8.5)

Although appealing to relatively straightforward methods, the proofs are quitelong, requiring a little patience.

Proof (of Theorem 8.2). Write p(x,α) = Ex(e−qκ+a 1κ+

a <κ−0 ). Suppose that x ≤ b.

Then, by conditioning on Fτ+b

, we have

p(x,α) = Ex

(e−qτ

+b 1τ−0 >τ

+b

)p(b,α) =

W (q)(x)W (q)(b)

p(b,α), (8.6)

where, in the last equality, we have used Theorem 4.5. Suppose now that b≤ x≤ a.Using, Theorem 4.5, the strong Markov property (8.6) and the Gerber-Shiu measure

Page 75: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

8.2 Gambler’s ruin and resolvent density 69

(in the context of the gambler’s ruin problem) from Theorem 5.5, we have

p(x,α)

= Ex

(e−qτ+a 1τ−b >τ

+a

)+Ex

(e−qτ

−b 1τ−b <τ

+a p(Zτ

−b,α))

=W(q)(x−b)W(q)(a−b)

+p(b,α)

W (q)(b)Ex

(e−qτ

−b 1τ−b <τ

+a W

(q)(Λτ−b))

=W(q)(x−b)W(q)(a−b)

+p(b,α)

W (q)(b)h(a,b,x), (8.7)

where

h(a,b,x)

=∫ a−b

0

∫(y,∞)

W (q)(b+ y−θ)

×

[W(q)(x−b)W(q)(a−b− y)

W(q)(a−b)−W(q)(x−b− y)

]F(dθ)dy.

By setting x = b in (8.7) and recalling that W(q)(0) = 1/(c−α), we can now solvefor p(b,α). Indeed, we have

p(b,α) =W (q)(b)(c−α)W(q)(a−b)W (q)(b)

−∫ a−b

0

∫(y,∞)

W (q)(b+ y−θ)W(q)(a−b− y)F(dθ)dy−1

. (8.8)

Next, we want to simplify the term involving the double integral in the above ex-pression.

To this end, noting that for α = 0 (the case that there is no refraction) we have,again by Theorem 4.5, that, for all x≥ 0,

p(b,0) = Eb

(e−qτ+a 1τ−0 >τ

+a

)=

W (q)(b)W (q)(a)

. (8.9)

It follows, by comparing (8.8) (for α = 0) with (8.9), that∫ a−b

0

∫(y,∞)

W (q)(b+ y−θ)W (q)(a−b− y)F(dθ)dy

= cW (q)(b)W (q)(a−b)−W (q)(a). (8.10)

As a ≥ b is taken arbitrarily, we may take Laplace transforms in a on the interval(b,∞) of both sides of the above expression. Denote by Lb the operator which sat-isfies Lb f [λ ] :=

∫∞

b e−λx f (x)dx and let λ > Φ(q). For the left-hand side of (8.10),

Page 76: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

70 8 Refraction strategies

we get with the help of Fubini’s Theorem∫∞

be−λx

∫∞

0

∫(y,∞)

W (q)(b+ y+θ)W (q)(x−b− y)dyF(dθ)dx

=e−λb

ψ(λ )−q

∫∞

0

∫(y,∞)

e−λyW (q)(b+ y−θ)F(dθ)dy.

For the right-hand side of (8.10) we get∫∞

be−λx

(W (q)(x−b)cW (q)(b)−W (q)(x)

)dx

=e−λb

ψ(λ )−qcW (q)(b)−

∫∞

be−λxW (q)(x)dx,

and so∫∞

0

∫(y,∞)

e−λyW (q)(b+ y−θ)F(dθ)dy

= cW (q)(b)− (ψ(λ )−q)eλbLbW (q)[λ ], (8.11)

for λ > Φ(q). Our objective is now to use (8.11) to show that for q ≥ 0 and x ≥ b,we have∫

0

∫(y,∞)

W (q)(b+ y−θ)W(q)(x−b− y)F(dθ)dy

=−W (q)(x)+(c−α)W (q)(b)W(q)(x−b)

−α

∫ x

bW(q)(x− y)W (q)′(y)dy. (8.12)

We will do this by taking Laplace transforms of (8.12) on both sides in x on (b,∞).To this end note that, by (8.11), it follows, with the help of Fubini’s Theorem, thatthe Laplace transform of the left-hand side of (8.12) equals∫

be−λx

∫∞

0

∫(y,∞)

W (q)(b+ y−θ)W(q)(x−b− y)F(dθ)dydx

=e−λb

ψ(λ )−αλ −q

(cW (q)(b)− (ψ(λ )−q)eλbLbW (q)[λ ]

), (8.13)

where λ > ϕ(q) and, for q≥ 0, ϕ(q) = supθ ≥ 0 : ψ(θ)−cθ = q. (Note that ϕ

is the right inverse of the Laplace exponent of Λ .) Since

Lb

(∫ x

bf (x− y)g(y)dy

)[λ ] = (L0 f )[λ ](Lbg)[λ ]

and, for λ > Φ(q),

Page 77: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

8.2 Gambler’s ruin and resolvent density 71

LbW (q)′[λ ] = λLbW (q)[λ ]− e−λbW (q)(b)

(which follows from integration by parts), we have that the Laplace transform of theright-hand side of (8.12) is equal to the right-hand side of (8.13), for all sufficientlylarge λ . Hence (8.12) holds for almost every x≥ b. Because both sides of (8.12) arecontinuous in x, we finally conclude that (8.12) holds for all x≥ b.

To complete the proof, it suffices to plug (8.12) and the expression for h(a,b,x)into (8.7) and the desired identity follows after straightforward algebra.

In anticipation of the proof of Theorem 8.3, we shall note here a particular iden-tity which follows easily from (8.12). That is, for v≥ u≥ m≥ 0,∫

0

∫(z,∞)

W (q)(z−θ +m)

×

[W(q)(v−m− z)W(q)(v−m)

W(q)(u−m)−W(q)(u−m− z)

]F(dθ)dz

=−W(q)(u−m)

W(q)(v−m)

(W (q)(v)+α

∫ v

mW(q)(v− z)W (q)′(z)dz

)+W (q)(u)+α

∫ u

mW(q)(u− z)W (q)′(z)dz. (8.14)

Proof (of Theorem 8.3). Define for Borel B⊆ [0,a] and x,q≥ 0,

V (q)(x,a,B) =∫

0e−qtPx(Zt ∈ B, t < κ

−0 ∧κ

+a )dt.

For x≤ b, by the strong Markov property, Theorem 4.5 and Theorem 5.2 we have

V (q)(x,a,B) = Ex

(∫τ+b

0e−qt1Zt∈B,t<κ

+a ∧κ

−0

dt

)

+Ex

(∫∞

τ+b

e−qt1Zt∈B,t<κ+a ∧κ

−0 ,τ+b <τ

−0

dt)

= Ex

(∫τ+b ∧τ

−0

0e−qt1Xt∈Bdt

)+Ex

(e−qτ

+b 1τ+b <τ

−0

)V (q)(b,a,B)

=∫

B

(W (q)(b− y)

W (q)(b)W (q)(x)−W (q)(x− y)

)dy

+W (q)(x)W (q)(b)

V (q)(b,a,B). (8.15)

Page 78: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

72 8 Refraction strategies

Moreover, for b≤ x≤ a we have, using similar arguments,

V (q)(x,a,B)

=∫

0e−qtPx

(Λt ∈ B∩ [b,a], t < τ

−b ∧ τ

+a)

dt

+Ex

(1τ−b <τ

+a e−qτ

−b V (q)(Λ

τ−b,a,B)

)=∫

B∩[b,a]

(W(q)(a− z)W(q)(a−b)

W(q)(x−b)−W(q)(x− z)

)dz

+∫

0

∫(−∞,−z)

∫B

[W (q)(b− y)

W (q)(b)W (q)(z+θ +b)−W (q)(z+θ +b− y)

]dy

+V (q)(b,a,B)

W (q)(b)W (q)(z+θ +b)

×

[W(q)(a−b− z)W(q)(a−b)

W(q)(x−b)−W(q)(x−b− z)

]Π(dθ)dz,

where in the first equality we have used the strong Markov property and in thesecond equality we have again used the Gerber-Shiu measure from Theorem 5.5.Next, we shall apply the identity (8.14) twice in order to simplify the expression forV (q)(x,a,B), a ≥ x ≥ b. We use it once by setting m = b, u = x, v = a and once bysetting m = b− y and u = x− y, v = a− y for y ∈ [0,b]. We obtain

V (q)(x,a,B)

=∫

B∩[b,a]

(W(q)(a− z)W(q)(a−b)

W(q)(x−b)−W(q)(x− z)

)dz

+∫

B∩[0,b)

W (q)(b− y)

W (q)(b)

(−W(q)(x−b)

W(q)(a−b)w(q)(a;0)+w(q)(x;0)

)

−(−W(q)(x−b)

W(q)(a−b)w(q)(a;y)+w(q)(x;y)

)dy

+V (q)(b,a,B)

W (q)(b)

(−W(q)(x−b)

W(q)(a−b)w(q)(a;0)+w(q)(x;0)

). (8.16)

Setting x = b in (8.16), we get an expression for V (q)(b,a,B) in terms of itself.Solving this and then putting the resulting expression for V (q)(b,a,B) back in (8.15)and (8.16) leads to (8.5) which completes the proof.

Page 79: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

8.3 Resolvent density with ruin 73

8.3 Resolvent density with ruin

The two expressions we are interested in, namely the ruin probability and the ex-pected net present value of dividends paid until ruin, can both be extracted from theidentity for the potential measure of U on [0,∞),∫

0Px(Zt ∈ B, t < κ

−0 )dt = lim

a↑∞V (x,a,B),

where B is any Borel set in [0,∞). Note that the limit is justified by monotone con-vergence. In order to describe this potential measure, let us introduce some morenotation. Recall that ϕ was defined as the right inverse of the Laplace exponent ofΛ , so that

ϕ(q) = supθ ≥ 0 : ψ(θ)−αθ = q.

Corollary 8.4. For x,y,b≥ 0 and q≥ 0∫∞

0e−qtPx(Zt ∈ dy, t < κ

−0 )dt

= 1y∈[b,∞)

w(q)(x;0)

α∫

b e−ϕ(q)zW (q)′(z)dze−ϕ(q)y−W(q)(x− y)

dy

+1y∈[0,b)

∫∞

b e−ϕ(q)zW (q)′(z− y)dz∫∞

b e−ϕ(q)zW (q)′(z)dzw(q)(x;0)−w(q)(x;y)

dy. (8.17)

Proof. Assume that q > 0. We begin by noting that, from the representation of W(q)

in (4.4), it is straightforward to deduce that, for all x,q > 0,

lima↑∞

W(q)(a− x)W(q)(a)

= e−ϕ(q)x.

Note that, for each q≥ 0, ϕ(q)≥Φ(q) and hence, appealing to the same represen-tation in (4.4) for both W (q) and W(q), it also follows that, for all q,x > 0,

lima↑∞

W (q)(a− x)W(q)(a)

= 0.

For q > 0, the result we are after is obtained by dividing the numerator and de-nominator of each of the first terms in the curly brackets of (8.5) by W(q)(a) andtaking limits as a ↑∞, making use of the above two observations. The case that q= 0is handled by taking limits as q ↓ 0 in (8.17).

Now we are in a position to derive expressions for (8.2) and (8.3).

Corollary 8.5. For x ≥ 0, if E(X1) ≤ α then Px(κ−0 < ∞) = 1. Otherwise, when

E(X1)> α , we have

Page 80: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

74 8 Refraction strategies

Px(κ−0 < ∞)

= 1− E(X1)−α

1−αW (b)

(W (x)+α1(x≥b)

∫ x

bW(x− y)W ′(y)dy

). (8.18)

Proof. Let U t = infs≤t Zs and, as usual, eq denotes an independent and exponentiallydistributed random variable with mean 1/q. Note that for q > 0,

Ex

(e−qκ

−0 1κ−0 <∞

)= 1−Px(Ueq

≥ 0)

= 1−q∫

0e−qtPx(Zt ∈ [0,∞), t < κ

−0 )dt.

Computing the integral above from (8.17) is relatively straightforward and gives us,for x,b≥ 0 and q > 0,

Ex(e−qκ−0 1κ−0 <∞)

= z(q)(x)−q∫

b e−ϕ(q)yW (q)(y)dy∫∞

b e−ϕ(q)yW (q)′(y)dyw(q)(x;0)

+q∫ x

bW(q)(x− z)dz+q

∫ b

0W (q)(x− z)dz

−q∫ x

0W (q)(z)dz−qα

∫ x

bW(q)(x− z)W (q)(z−b)dz, (8.19)

where

z(q)(x) = Z(q)(x)+αq∫ x

bW(q)(x− z)W (q)(z)dz, x ∈ R,q≥ 0.

The details of the computation are left to the reader.Although it is not immediately obvious, it turns out that the last four terms in

(8.19) sum to precisely zero. Indeed, in the case that x ≤ b, this observation isstraightforward, noting that the two integrals from b to x are identically zero andthe second integral may be replaced by

∫ x0 W (q)(x− z)dz =

∫ x0 W (q)(z)dz on account

of the fact that W (q) is identically zero on (−∞,0). In the case that x > b, thelast four terms of (8.19) can be easily rearranged to be equal to h(x− b), whereh : [0,∞)→ [0,∞) is the continuous function

h(u) = q∫ u

0W(q)(z)dz−q

∫ u

0W (q)(z)dz−qα

∫ u

0W(q)(z)W (q)(u− z)dz.

Taking Laplace transforms of h and using (4.1), we easily verify that h is identicallyzero.

In conclusion, we have that, for x,b≥ 0 and q > 0,

Ex(e−qκ−0 1κ−0 <∞) = z(q)(x)−

q∫

b e−ϕ(q)yW (q)(y)dy∫∞

b e−ϕ(q)yW (q)′(y)dyw(q)(x;0).

Page 81: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

8.4 Comments 75

The expression for the ruin probability in (8.18) by taking limits on the left- andright-hand side above as q ↓ 0. On the left-hand side, thanks to monotone conver-gence, the limit is equal to Px(κ

−0 < ∞). Computing the limits on the right-hand side

is relatively straightforward, taking account of the fact that∫∞

0e−ϕ(q)zW (q)(z)dz =

1ϕ(q)α

(8.20)

and the fact that

limq↓0

qϕ(q)

= limq↓0

ψ(ϕ(q))−αϕ(q)ϕ(q)

= 0∨ (E(X1)−α).

The details are again left to the reader.

Corollary 8.6. For x≥ 0,

Ex

(∫κ−0

0e−qt

α1Zt>bdt

)

=−α

∫ x

bW(q)(z−b)dz+

W (q)(x)+α1(x≥b)∫ x

b W(q)(x− y)W (q)′(y)dy

ϕ(q)∫

0 e−ϕ(q)yW (q)′(y+b)dy.

Proof. The proof is a simple exercise in integrating the potential measure (8.17)over (b,∞).

8.4 Comments

The terminology “refraction” comes from Gerber (2006b). See also Gerber and Shiu(2006a). The majority of the arguments in this chapter are taken from Kyprianou andLoeffen (2010), where X is taken to be a general spectrally negative Levy process.The question of existence and uniqueness for the SDE (8.1) when X is a generalLevy process has not yet been handled in the literature. In particular, when X has noGaussian component, although still a simple-looking SDE, (8.1) lies outside of therealms of standard theory.

Page 82: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around
Page 83: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

Chapter 9Concluding discussion

On the one hand, the use of scale functions would appear to have made many ofthe problems we have looked at solvable. On the other hand, one may also questionthe extent to which we have solved the posed problems as our scale functions areonly defined up to a Laplace transform. Therefore we have arguably only provideda solution “up to the inversion of a Laplace transform”. It would be nice to havesome concrete examples. It turns out that few concrete examples are known andthey are quite difficult to produce in general. Nonetheless, we shall show that thereis still sufficient analytical structure known for a general scale function to justifytheir use, in particular when moving to a bigger class of processes to model thesurplus process.

9.1 Mixed-exponential jumps

In general, it is quite hard to construct of the scale function W (q) for a Cramer–Lundberg process. There is one family of Cramer–Lundberg processes, however,for which there is a reasonable degree of tractability as far scale functions are con-cerned. In order to specify these processes, let us define the arrival rate

λ =m

∑j=1

a j/ρ j (9.1)

and the claims distribution by

F(dx) =1λ

(m

∑j=1

a je−ρ jx

)dx, x > 0, (9.2)

where m ∈ N, and, for j = 1, · · · ,m, the coefficients a j and ρ j are strictly positive.For convenience, we also assume that the ρ j are arranged in increasing order. Thepremium rate c may be taken valued in (0,∞) without restriction.

77

Page 84: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

78 9 Concluding discussion

It is easily verified that the Laplace exponent is given by

ψ(θ) = cθ −θ

m

∑j=1

a j

ρ j(ρ j +θ), θ ≥ 0.

A little thought reveals that the exponent ψ is in fact well defined as a mapping fromC to C, provided one is prepared to see it as a a meromorphic function which hasonly negative poles at points z = −ρ j. Henceforth, we shall treat ψ in this broadersense, as a complex valued-function. We know from our previous analysis that, forq > 0, the equation ψ(θ) = q has a unique solution z = Φ(q) in the half-planeRe(θ) > 0, and we also know that this solution is real. It can be proved (see Sect.9.5) that if we look for other roots of the equation ψ(θ) = q on the complex plane,then there are precisely N of them and they are all to be found on the negative partof the real axis. If we write these solutions as θ =−ζ j, for j = 1, · · · ,m, then it alsoturns out that they satisfy the interlacing property

0 < ζ1 < ρ1 < ζ2 < ρ2 < · · ·< ζm < ρm. (9.3)

The following lemma gives an explicit formula for the scale function when ex-pressed in terms of the roots ζ j and the first derivative of the Laplace exponent.

Lemma 9.1. If X is a Cramer–Lundberg process with λ and F given by (9.1) and(9.2), respectively, then, for all q > 0, the scale function is given by

W (q)(x) =eΦ(q)x

ψ ′(Φ(q))+

m

∑j=1

e−ζ jx

ψ ′(−ζ j), x≥ 0. (9.4)

Proof. We give a sketch proof. Knowing that −ζm, · · · ,−ζ1,Φ(q) are all roots ofthe equation ψ(θ) = 0 in C, the basic idea is to use partial fractions to write1

1ψ(θ)−q

=c0

(θ −Φ(q))+

m

∑j=1

c j

(θ +ζ j), θ ∈ C. (9.5)

To determine the constants c0, note that, for example,

1ψ ′(Φ(q))

= limθ→Φ(q)

(θ −Φ(q))ψ(θ)−q

= c0 +m

∑j=1

limθ→Φ(q)

c j(θ −Φ(q))(θ +ζ j)

= c0.

One derives c1, · · · ,cm similarly. The identity (9.4) now follows by inverting (9.5)in a straightforward way.

1 This is the part of the proof that we have not justified.

Page 85: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

9.2 Spectrally negative Levy processes 79

9.2 Spectrally negative Levy processes

One of the advantages working with scale functions is that all of the results, as wellas many of their proofs, are practically identical if we replace the Cramer–Lundbergprocess by a general spectrally negative Levy process. Membership of this class ofLevy process has the simple requirement that, in the almost sure sense, there are nopositive jumps and that paths are not monotone.

A simple example of a spectrally negative Levy process would be the resultingobject we would get from adding a Cramer–Lundberg process to a (scaled) indepen-dent Brownian motion, i.e.

Xt = σBt +ct−Nt

∑i=1

ξi, t ≥ 0, (9.6)

where Bt : t ≥ 0 is a standard independent Brownian motion and σ ≥ 0.In general, spectrally negative Levy processes can be characterised through their

Laplace exponent, also denoted by ψ , which satisfies

ψ(θ) :=1t

logE[eθXt ],

and is well defined for θ ≥ 0. The Levy-Khintchine formula, which is normallycited for the characteristic exponent of a Levy process, also identifies the Laplaceexponent in its general form as

ψ(θ) = aθ +12

σ2θ

2 +∫(0,∞)

(e−θx−1+θx1(x<1))ν(dx), θ ≥ 0, (9.7)

where a ∈ R, σ2 ≥ 0 and the so-called Levy measure ν is a (not-necessarily finite)measure concentrated on (0,∞) which satisfies the integrability condition∫

(0,∞)(1∧ x2)ν(dx)< ∞.

Although ψ looks more complicated than for the case of a Cramer–Lundberg pro-cess, its shape is essentially the same. Indeed, it is not difficult to show, againby differentiation, that ψ is a strictly convex function which satisfies ψ(0) = 0and ψ(∞) = ∞. Moreover, just as with the Cramer–Lundberg process, we haveE(X1) = ψ ′(0+) ∈ [−∞,∞). Accordingly, we may also work with the right inverseof ψ ,

Φ(q) := supθ ≥ 0 : ψ(θ) = q, q≥ 0.

Just as is the case with Cramer–Lundberg processes, the quantity Φ(0) is strictlypositive if and only if ψ ′(0+) < 0 and otherwise, it is zero. In this respect, Fig.2.1 could equally depict the Laplace exponent of a general spectrally negative Levyprocess.

Page 86: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

80 9 Concluding discussion

We should note that the class of spectrally negative Levy processes contains theclass of Cramer–Lundberg processes. Indeed, this can be seen by taking ν(dx) =λF(dx) on (0,∞) and σ = 0. In that case, as F is now a finite measure, (9.7) can bewritten

ψ(θ) =

(a+λ

∫(0,1)

xF(dx))

θ −λ

∫(0,∞)

(1− e−θx)F(dx), θ ≥ 0.

The exclusion of monotone paths from the definition of spectrally negative Levyprocesses would force us to take

c := a+λ

∫(0,1)

xF(dx)> 0, (9.8)

which brings us back to the class of Cramer–Lundberg processes. Indeed, requiringthat ν is a finite measure and that the quantity c, as defined in (9.8), is strictlypositive is a necessary and sufficient condition for a spectrally negative Levy processto be a Cramer–Lundberg process.

Describing the paths of the Levy process X = Xt : t ≥ 0 associated to ψ isnot as straightforward as in the case of a Cramer–Lundberg process. It is clear thatthe quadratic term aθ + σ2θ 2/2 is the result of an independent linear Browniancomponent at +σBt : t ≥ 0 in X . The integral term in ψ can be written∫

(0,∞)(e−θx−1−θx1(x<1))ν(dx)

= ∑n≥1

cnθ −λn

∫(2−n,2−(n−1)]

(1− e−θx)ν(dx)

λn

−λ0

∫(0,∞)

(1− e−θx)ν(dx)

λ0, θ ≥ 0, (9.9)

where λ0 = ν((1,∞)) and, for n≥ 1,

cn =∫(2−n,2−(n−1)]

xν(dx) and λn = ν((2−n,2−(n−1)])

Note that, if λn = 0 for some n≥ 0, then we should understand the relevant term onthe right-hand side of (9.9) as absent.

The decomposition (9.9) gives us the intuitive understanding that, for the giventriple (a,σ ,ν), the associated spectrally negative Levy process may be seen as theindependent sum of a linear Brownian component, a series of Cramer–Lundbergprocesses and the negative of a compound Poisson process. The special choice ofcn, for n≥ 1, means that each of the Cramer–Lundberg processes have zero mean (infact they are martingales). Moreover the n-th Cramer–Lundberg process experiencesjumps whose magnitude falls strictly into the interval (2−n,2−(n−1)]. Meanwhile,the compound Poisson process experiences jumps which are of magnitude strictlygreater than 1.

Page 87: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

9.2 Spectrally negative Levy processes 81

The resulting path of the superimposition of these processes can be quite varied.Indeed, almost surely over any finite time horizon, there will be an infinite (albeitcountable) number of jumps if and only if ν is an infinite measure. Moreover, X haspaths of bounded variation (almost surely over each finite time horizon) if and onlyif∫(0,1) xν(dx)< ∞ and σ = 0.

For the class of spectrally negative Levy processes, we may also define scalefunctions W (q)(x), q ≥ 0,x ∈ R, in exactly the same way as we did for Cramer–Lundberg processes. In particular, for q≥ 0, W (q)(x) = 0 for x< 0 and otherwise, on[0,∞), it is the unique right-continuous increasing function whose Laplace transformsatisfies ∫

0e−θxW (q)(x)dx =

1ψ(θ)−q

, θ > Φ(q). (9.10)

The majority of the main results presented in the previous chapters and indeedmany of their proofs, are still valid when the setting of a Cramer–Lundberg processis replaced by a general spectrally negative Levy process. We are thus brought againto the question of the existence of concrete examples of scale functions.

Not surprisingly, it is also difficult to find closed form examples of scale functionsfor a spectrally negative Levy process that is not a Cramer–Lundberg process. Hereare a couple of related examples however.

A spectrally negative α-stable process, for α ∈ (1,2), has Levy measure

ν(dx) =kα

x1+αdx, x > 0,

where kα is a constant that can be chosen appropriately so that

ψ(θ) = θα , θ ≥ 0.

Note that ψ ′(0+) = 0 and hence the α-stable process oscillates.Denote by

Eα,β (x) = ∑n≥0

xn

Γ (nα +β ), x ∈ R, (9.11)

the two-parameter Mittag-Leffler function. It is characterised by its Fourier trans-form. Specifically, for λ ∈ R, θ ∈ C and ℜ(θ)> λ 1/α , we have

∫∞

0e−θxxβ−1Eα,β (λxα)dx =

θ α−β

θ α −λ. (9.12)

We recognise immediately that

W (q)(x) = xα−1Eα,α(qxα), q,x≥ 0.

Suppose that we look at the α-stable process under the Escher transform (2.7).As alluded to above, the main part of this result is still valid for general spectrally

Page 88: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

82 9 Concluding discussion

negative Levy processes. In particular, we note that the class of spectrally negativeLevy processes is closed under the Escher transformation. For each γ ≥ 0 and α ∈(1,2), if (X ,P) is an α-stable process then (X ,Pγ) is a spectrally negative Levyprocess with Laplace exponent

ψγ(θ) = (θ + γ)α − γα , θ ≥−γ.

This process is also known as a tempered stable process. Like the α-stable pro-cess, it has no Gaussian component. Similarly to the conclusion of Theorem 2.4 forCramer–Lundberg processes, the effect of the Esscher transform is to transform theLevy measure to

νγ(dx) =kα e−γx

x1+αdx, x > 0.

Note also that ψ ′γ(0+) = ψ ′(γ)> 0 and hence the process drifts to +∞.Just as above, we may note derive by inspection of (9.11) the following identity

for W (q)γ , the q-scale function of (X ,Pγ):

W (q)γ (x) = e−γxxα−1Eα,α((q+ γ

α)xα), x≥ 0.

9.3 Analytic properties of scale functions

Despite the fact that, for any given spectrally negative Levy process, we are gener-ally unable to invert the transform (9.10), we can nonetheless get a general under-standing of the shape of the general scale function. Here is a summary of some ofthe known facts, most of which can be derived from the Laplace transform (9.10).

Continuity at the origin

For all q≥ 0,

W (q)(0+) =

0 if σ > 0 or

∫(0,1) xν(dx) = ∞

c−1 if σ = 0 and∫(0,1) xν(dx)< ∞,

(9.13)

where c=−a−∫(−1,0) xν(dx).

Derivative at the origin

For all q≥ 0,

Page 89: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

9.3 Analytic properties of scale functions 83

W (q)′(0+) =

2/σ2 if σ > 0∞ if σ = 0 and ν((0,∞)) = ∞

(q+ν(−∞,0))/c2 if σ = 0 and ν((0,∞))< ∞.(9.14)

Behaviour at +∞ for q = 0

As x ↑ ∞ we have

W (x)∼

1/ψ ′(0+) if ψ ′(0+)> 0eΦ(0)x/ψ ′(Φ(0)) if ψ ′(0+)< 0.

(9.15)

When E(X1) = 0 a number of different asymptotic behaviours may occur. For ex-ample, if φ(θ) := ψ(θ)/θ satisfies φ ′(0+)< ∞ then W (x)∼ x/φ ′(0+) as x ↑ ∞.

Behaviour at +∞ for q > 0

As x ↑ ∞ we haveW (q)(x)∼ eΦ(q)x/ψ

′(Φ(q)) (9.16)

and thus there is asymptotic exponential growth.

Smoothness

It is known that if X has paths of bounded variation then, for all q≥ 0, W (q)|(0,∞) ∈C1(0,∞) if and only if ν has no atoms. In the case that X has paths of unboundedvariation, it is known that, for all q ≥ 0, W (q)|(0,∞) ∈ C1(0,∞). Moreover if σ > 0then C1(0,∞) may be replaced by C2(0,∞). Clearly this picture is incomplete.

Taking account of the fact that the Laplace transform of W (q) is expressed interms of ψ(θ), which, itself, can be considered as a type of analytical transform ofthe measure ν , it is not surprising that there is an intimate connection between thesmoothness of the scale functions and the Levy measure. Whilst there are a numberof existing results results connecting the two (see Sect. 9.5), a general result remainsat large. The following result has been conjectured by Ron Doney.

Conjecture 9.2. Let ν(x) = ν((x,∞)) for x > 0. For k = 0,1,2, · · ·

1. if σ2 > 0 thenW ∈Ck+3(0,∞)⇔ ν ∈Ck(0,∞),

2. if σ = 0 and∫(0,1) xν(dx) = ∞ then

W ∈Ck+2(0,∞)⇔ ν ∈Ck(0,∞),

3. if σ = 0 and∫(0,1) xν(dx)< ∞ then

Page 90: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

84 9 Concluding discussion

W ∈Ck+1(0,∞)⇔ ν ∈Ck(0,∞).

Concavity and convexity

If x 7→ ν(x), x > 0, is a completely monotone function2 then, for all q > 0, W (q)′(x),x > 0, is convex. Note in particular, the latter implies that there exists an a∗ ≥ 0 suchthat W (q) is concave on (0,a∗) and convex on (a∗,∞). In the case that ψ ′(0+) ≥ 0and q= 0 the same conclusion holds with a∗=∞, which is to say that W is a concavefunction. More generally, we have the following result.

Theorem 9.3. Suppose that ν is log-convex. Then for all q ≥ 0, W (q) has a log-convex first derivative.

(Note that a completely monotone function is log-convex and a log-convex functionis also convex.)

9.4 Engineered scale functions

Within the class of spectrally negative Levy process, there are a number of methodsfor generating examples of scale functions with q = 0. Rather than trying to invert(9.10) for a given ψ , the idea is to construct a ψ corresponding to a given W . Weoutline one method here, which is based around the Wiener-Hopf factorisation.

For the purpose of this discussion, the Wiener-Hopf factorisation concerns theLaplace exponent of X and takes the form:

ψ(θ) = (θ −Φ(0))φ(θ), θ ≥ 0, (9.17)

where φ , is a so-called Bernstein function. Specifically, the term φ(θ) must neces-sarily take the form

φ(θ) = κ +δθ +∫(0,∞)

(1− e−θx)ϒ (dx), θ ≥ 0, (9.18)

where κ,δ ≥ 0 and ϒ is a measure concentrated on (0,∞) which satisfies∫(0,∞(1∧

x)ϒ (dx) < ∞. Roughly speaking, this factorisation can be proved by recalling thatψ(Φ(0)) = 0 and then manually factoring out (θ −Φ(0)) from ψ by using integra-tion by parts to deal with the integral part of (9.7). Thereby, it turns out that

2 A function f : (0,∞)→ [0,∞) is completely monotone if, for all n ∈ N,

(−1)n d f (x)dxn ≥ 0.

Page 91: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

9.4 Engineered scale functions 85

ϒ ((x,∞)) = eΦ(0)x∫

xe−Φ(0)u

ν(u)du for x > 0, (9.19)

δ = σ2/2 and κ = ψ ′(0+)∨0.It is remarkable that φ is also the Laplace exponent of a subordinator3 which

is sent to the cemetery state +∞ after an independent an exponentially distributedrandom time with rate κ .4 If we write this process H = Ht : t ≥ 0 and let ζ =inft > 0 : Ht =+∞, then, for all t ≥ 0,

φ(θ) =−1t

logE(

e−θHt 1(t<ζ )

), θ ≥ 0.

What is even more remarkable is that the range of Ht : t < ζ agrees precisely withthe range of the process X t : t ≥ 0. Accordingly we call H the descending ladderheight process of X .

In the special case that Φ(0) = 0, that is to say, the process X does not drift to−∞

or equivalently that ψ ′(0+)≥ 0, it can be shown that the scale function W describesthe renewal measure of H. Indeed, recall that the renewal measure of H is definedby

V (dx) =∫

0dt ·P(Ht ∈ dx, t < ζ ), for x≥ 0. (9.20)

Calculating its Laplace transform we get the identity∫∞

0e−θxV (dx) =

1φ(θ)

for θ > 0. (9.21)

Recall that we can integrate (9.10) by parts and get∫[0,∞)

e−θxW (dx) =θ

ψ(θ)=

1φ(θ)

, θ ≥ 0.

Hence, it appears that W agrees precisely with the renewal function, V , of the sub-ordinator H that appears in the Wiener-Hopf factorisation.

It can be shown similarly that when Φ(0)> 0, the scale function is related to therenewal measure of H by the formula

W (x) = eΦ(0)x∫ x

0e−Φ(0)yV (dy), x≥ 0. (9.22)

This relationship between scale functions and renewal measures of subordina-tors lies at the heart of the approach we shall describe in this section for engineeringscale functions. A key to the method is the fact that one can find in the literature sev-eral subordinators for which the renewal measure is known explicitly. Should thesesubordinators turn out to be the descending ladder height process of a spectrally neg-

3 A subordinator is a Levy process with non-decreasing paths.4 Recall our convention that an exponential random variable with rate 0 is defined to be the infinitevalued with probability 1.

Page 92: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

86 9 Concluding discussion

ative Levy process, then this would give an exact expression for its scale function.Said another way, we can build scale functions using the following approach.

Step 1. Choose a subordinator, say H, with Laplace exponent φ , for which oneknows its renewal measure, V , or equivalently, in light of (9.21), one can explicitlyinvert the Laplace transform 1/φ(θ).

Step 2. Choose a constant ϕ ≥ 0 and verify whether the relation

ψ(θ) := (λ −ϕ)φ(θ), θ ≥ 0,

defines the Laplace exponent of a spectrally negative Levy process.

Step 3. Once steps 1 and 2 are verified, then the scale function of the spectrallynegative Levy process we have generated is given by (9.22).

Of course, for this method to be useful we should first provide necessary andsufficient conditions for the pair (H,ϕ) to belong to the Wiener-Hopf factorisationof a spectrally negative Levy process.

The following theorem shows how one may identify a spectrally negative Levyprocess X (called the parent process) for a given pair (H,ϕ). The proof follows bya straightforward manipulation of the Wiener-Hopf factorization (9.17).

Theorem 9.4. Suppose that H is a subordinator, killed at rate κ ≥ 0, with drift δ ≥ 0and Levy measure ϒ which is absolutely continuous with non-increasing density.Suppose further that ϕ ≥ 0 is given such that ϕκ = 0. Then there exists a spectrallynegative Levy process X, henceforth referred to as the ‘parent process’, whose de-scending ladder height process is precisely the process H. The Levy triple (a,σ ,ν)of the parent process is uniquely identified as follows. The Gaussian coefficient isgiven by σ =

√2δ . The Levy measure is given by

ν(x) = ϕϒ (x,∞)+dϒ

dx(x). (9.23)

Finally, a can be chosen such that

ψ(θ) = (θ −ϕ)φ(θ), (9.24)

for θ ≥ 0 where φ(θ) =− logE(e−θH1).Conversely, the killing rate, drift and Levy measure of the descending ladder

height process associated to a given spectrally negative Levy process X satisfyingϕ = Φ(0) are also given by the above formulae.

Let us conclude this section by presenting a concrete example of how thismethodology works in practice. Consider a spectrally negative Levy process whichis the parent process of a (killed) tempered stable process. That is to say a subordi-nator with Laplace exponent given by

Page 93: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

9.4 Engineered scale functions 87

φ(θ) = κ− cΓ (−α)((γ +θ)α − γα) ,

where α ∈ (−1,1)\0, γ ≥ 0 and c > 0.The corresponding Levy measure is given by

ν(dx) = c(ϕ + γ)

xα+1 e−γxdx+ c(α +1)

xα+2 e−γxdx, x > 0. (9.25)

This indicates that the jump part of the parent process is the result of the independentsum of two spectrally negative tempered stable processes with stability parametersα and α + 1. We also note from Theorem 9.4 that σ =

√2ζ = 0, indicating the

presence of a Gaussian component.If 0 < α < 1 the jump component is the sum of an infinite activity negative tem-

pered stable subordinator and an independent spectrally negative tempered stableprocess with infinite variation. If −1 ≤ α < 0 the jump part of the parent processis the independent sum tempered stable subordinator with stability parameter 1+α

and exponential parameter γ , and an independent negative compound Poisson sub-ordinator with jumps from a gamma distribution with −α degrees of freedom andexponential parameter γ .

One easily deduces the following transformations as special examples of (9.12)for θ ,λ > 0, ∫

0e−θxxα−1Eα,α(λxα)dx =

1θ α −λ

, (9.26)

and ∫∞

0e−θx

λ−1x−α−1E−α,−α(λ

−1x−α)dx =λ

λ −θ α−1, (9.27)

valid for α > 0 and α < 0, respectively. Together with the well-known rules forLaplace transforms concerning primitives and tilting, we may quickly deduce thefollowing expressions for the scale functions associated to the parent process withLaplace exponent given by (9.24) such that κϕ = 0.

If 0 < α < 1 then, for x≥ 0,

W (x) =eϕx

−cΓ (−α)

∫ x

0e−(γ+ϕ)yyα−1Eα,α

(κ + cΓ (−α)γα

−cΓ (−α)yα

)dy.

If −1 < α < 0, then, for x≥ 0,

W (x) =eϕx

κ + cΓ (−α)γα

+cΓ (−α)eϕx

(κ + cΓ (−α)γα)2

∫ x

0e−(γ+ϕ)yy−α−1E−α,−α

(cΓ (−α)y−α

κ + cΓ (−α)γα

)dy.

Page 94: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

88 9 Concluding discussion

9.5 Comments

The case of a Cramer–Lundberg process with mixed exponential jumps (sometimescalled hyperexponential jumps) can be generalised by taking jumps whose distribu-tion has a Laplace transform that is the ratio of two polynomial functions of finitedegree (also called a rational Laplace transform). Another favourite class in thefamily of jump distributions with rational Laplace transform (which also containsthe class of mixed exponential distributions) is the phase-type distributions. Thetractability of the class of processes with jumps having rational transform can berouted back to early work of Borovkov (1976) concerning the Wiener-Hopf factori-sation. Many authors have worked on these types of Cramer–Lundberg processesand it would be impossible to give a complete list here. We cite instead two of themost recent references which give a good overview in the context of Gerber-Shiutype problems. These are Kuznetsov and Morales (2013) and Egami and Yamazaki(2012). The idea of engineering scale functions through the Wiener-Hopf factorisa-tion comes from Hubalek and Kyprianou (2010) and Kyprianou and Rivero (2008).Analytical properties of scale functions have been described in a variety of differentpapers. A recent summary of these and many more facts can be found in the reviewon scale functions found in Cohen et al. (2012).

Page 95: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

References

Albrecher, H.-J. and Hipp, C. (2007) Lundberg’s risk process with tax. Blaetter derDGVFM 28 13-28.

Albrecher, H.-J. and Renaud, J.-F.. (2008) A Levy insurance risk process with tax.J. Appl. Prob. 45 363-375.

Asmussen, S. and Taksar, M. Controlled diffusion models for optimal dividend pay-out. Insurance Math. Econom. 20, (1997), 1–15.

Avram, F., Palmowski, Z. and Pistorius, M.R. (2007) On the optimal dividend prob-lem for a spectrally negative Levy process. Ann. Appl. Probab. 17, 156–180.

Azcue, P. and Muler, N. (2005) Optimal reinsurance and dividend distribution poli-cies in the Cramer-Lundberg model, Math. Finance 15, 261–308.

Azema, J. and Yor, M (1979) Une solution simple au probleme de Skorokhod. InSem. Probab. XIII, Lect. Notes Math. 721, 91–115. Springer, Berlin HeidelbergNew York.

Bertoin, J. (1992) An extension of Pitman’s Theorem for spectrally positive Levyprocesses. Ann. Probab. 20, 1464–1483.

Bertoin, J. (1996) Levy processes Cambridge University Press.Bertoin, J. (1997) Exponential decay and ergodicity of completely asymmetric Levy

processes in a finite interval, Ann. Appl. Probab. 7, 156–169.Bertoin, J. and Yor, M. (2005) Exponential functionals of Levy processes. Probab.

Surv. 2, 191–212.Borovkov, A.A. (1976) Stochastic Processes in Queueing Theory. Springer, Berlin

Heidelberg New York.Cohen, S., Kuznetsov, A., Kyprianou, A.E. and Rivero, V. (2012) Levy matters II.

Lecture notes in mathematics 2061. Spinger.Cramer, H. (1994a) Collected Works. Vol. I. Edited and with a preface by Anders

Martin–Lof. Springer, Berlin Heidelberg New York.Cramer, H. (1994b) Collected Works. Vol. II. Edited and with a preface by Anders

Martin–Lof. Springer, Berlin Heidelberg New York.Dickson, D. C. M. (2005) Insurance Risk and Ruin Cambridge University Press.Dickson, D. C. M. and Waters, H. R. (2004) Some optimal dividends problems.

Astin Bull. 34, 4974.

89

Page 96: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

90 References

Egami, M. and Yamazaki, K. (2012) Phase-type fitting of scale functions for spec-trally negative Levy processes. arXiv:1005.0064v5 [math.PR]

Embrechts, P., Kluppelberg, C. and Mikosch, T. (1997) Modelling Extremal Eventsfor Insurance and Finance. Springer, Berlin Heidelberg New York.

Esscher, F. (1932) On the Probability Function in the Collective Theory of Risk.Skandinavisk Aktuarietidskrift 15, 175–195.

Feller, W. (1971) An Introduction to Probability Theory and its Applications. Vol II,2nd edition. Wiley, New York.

de Finetti, B. (1957) Su un’impostazion alternativa dell teoria collecttiva del rischio.Transactions of the XVth International Congress of Actuaries 2, 433–443.

Gerber, H.U. (1969) Entscheidungskriterien fur den zusammengesetzten Poisson-Prozess. Schweiz. Verein. Versicherungsmath. Mitt. 69, 185-228.

Gerber, H. U. and Shiu, E. S. W. (1994). Option Pricing by Esscher Transforms.Transactions of the Society of Actuaries 46, 99–191.

Gerber, H. U. and Shiu, E. S. W. (1997). The joint distribution of the time of ruin, thesurplus immediately before ruin, and the deficit at ruin. Insurance Math. Econom.21, 129–137.

Gerber, H. U. and Shiu, E. S. W. (1998). On the time value of ruin. North Am.Actuar. J. 2, 48–78.

Gerber, H. and Shiu, E. (2006a). On optimal dividends: From reflection to refraction.J. Comput. Appl. Math. 186, 4-22.

Gerber, H. U. and Shiu, E.S.W. (2006b) On optimal dividend strategies in the com-pound Poisson model. N. Am. Actuar. J. 10, 76–93.

Greenwood, P.E. and Pitman, J.W. (1980) Fluctuation identities for Levy processesand splitting at the maximum. Adv. Appl. Probab. 12, 839–902.

Hubalek, F. and Kyprianou, A.E. (2010) Old and new examples of scale functionsfor spectrally negative Levy processes. In Sixth Seminar on Stochastic Analysis,Random Fields and Applications, eds R. Dalang, M. Dozzi, F. Russo. Progress inProbability, Birkhauser, 119-146.

Jeanblanc, M. and Shiryaev, A.N. Optimization of the flow of dividends. RussianMath. Surveys 50, 257–277.

Kella, O. and Whitt, W. (1992) Useful martingales for stochastic storage processeswith Levy input. J. Appl. Prob. 29, 396–403.

Kennedy, D. (1976) Some martingales related to cumulative sum tests and single-server queues. Stoch. Proc. Appl., 4, 261–269.

Korolyuk, V.S. (1974) Boundary problems for a compound Poisson process. TheoryProbab. Appl. 19, 1–14.

Korolyuk V.S. (1975a) Boundary Problems for Compound Poisson Processes.Naukova Dumka, Kiev (in Russian).

Korolyuk, V.S. (1975b) On ruin problem for compound Poisson process. TheoryProbab. Appl. 20, 374–376.

Kuznetsov, A. and Morales, M. (2011) Computing the finite-time expected dis-counted penalty function for a family of Levy risk processes. To appear in Scan-dinavian Actuarial Journal.

Page 97: Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory · Shiu theory and the role that it has played in classical ruin theory. 1.1 The Cramer–Lundberg process´ The beginnings of ruin theory is based around

References 91

Cohen, S., Kuznetsov, A., Kyprianou, A.E. and Rivero, V. (2012) Levy matters II.Lecture notes in mathematics 2061. Spinger.

Kyprianou, A.E. (2012) Introductory lectures on fluctuations of Levy processes withApplications. Second edition. Springer, Heidelberg.

Kyprianou, A.E. and Loeffen, R.L. (2010) Refracted Levy processes. Ann. Inst. H.Poincare. 46, 24–44.

Kyprianou, A.E., Loeffen, R.L. and Perez, J.L. (2012) Optimal control with abso-lutely continuous strategies for spectrally negative Levy processes. J. Appl. Prob.49, 150–166.

Kyprianou, A.E. and Ott, C. (2012) Spectrally negative Levy processes perturbedby functionals of their running supremum. To appear in J. App. Probab.

Kyprianou A.E. and Palmowski, Z. (2007) Distributional study of De Finetti’s div-idend problem for a general Levy insurance risk process. J. Appl. Probab. 44,428–443.

Kypianou, A.E. and Rivero, V. (2008) Special, conjugate and complete scale func-tions for spectrally negative Levy processes. Electron. J. Probab. 13, 1672–1701.

Kyprianou, A.E. and Zhou, Z. (2009) General Tax Structures and the Levy InsuranceRisk Model J. Appl. Prob. 46 1146-1156.

Kyprianou, A.E., Rivero, V. and Song, R. (2010) Convexity and smoothness of scalefunctions and de Finettis control problem. J. Theoret. Probab. 23, 547–564.

Loeffen, R.L. (2008) On optimality of the barrier strategy in de Finettis dividendproblem for spectrally negative Levy processes. Ann. Appl. Probab. 18, 1669–1680.

Loeffen, R. L. and Renaud, J.-F. (2010) De Finettis optimal dividends problem withan affine penalty function at ruin. Insurance Math. Econom. 46, 98–108.

Lundberg, F. (1903) Approximerad framstallning av sannolikhetsfunktionen.Aterforsakring av kollektivrisker. Akad. Afhandling. Almqvist. och Wiksell, Up-psala.

Renaud, J.–F. and Zhou, X. (2007) Moments of the expected present value of totaldividends until ruin in a Levy risk model. J. Appl. Probab. 44, 420–427.

Revuz, D. and Yor, M. (2004) Continuous Martingales and Brownian Motion. 3rdedition. Springer-Verlag, Berlin.

Rogers, L.C.G. (1990) The two-sided exit problem for spectrally positive Levy pro-cesses, Adv. Appl. Probab. 22, 486–487.

Suprun, V.N. (1976) Problem of ruin and resolvent of terminating processes withindependent increments, Ukrainian Math. J. 28, 39–45.

Takacs, L. (1966) Combinatorial Methods in the Theory of Stochastic Processes.Wiley, New York.

Wald, A. On cumulative sums of random variables. Ann. Math. Stat. 15, 283–296.Zolotarev, V.M. (1964) The first passage time of a level and the behaviour at infinity

for a class of processes with independent increments, Theory Prob. Appl. 9, 653–661.