GEOSS ADC Architecture Workshop

Water/Drought Scenario5 Feb 2008

David Arctur

OGC Interoperability Institute

darctur@ogcii.org

Drought … The Growing Threat During the past 30 years, there is evidence of an increase in the

incidence of drought worldwide

Increasing temperatures combined with growing populations and unsustainable use of water resources are combining to magnify drought’s impacts

Required Areas of Expertise– Drought Monitoring– Forecasting– Impacts Monitoring and Assessment

Some or all of these areas are beginning to be addressed by national and regional programs

Response: Drought Early Warning System (DEWS)

– Research

– Education

– Planning

Nov 2007 GEO Plenary and Ministerial Summit:

Scenario: Drought Monitoring and Response

• Overview• Context and pre-conditions• Scenario events• Data sources and other coordination

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Overview

• Drought: an increasingly damaging phenomena

– Growing population & agricultural stresses on surface & groundwater

– Reduced snow and glacier reservoirs

• Complex phenomena

– Defined across many time scales, impacting many economic sectors

– Sea surface temperatures (SST), winds, land cover, many other factors

• Scenario objectives

– Monitor & forecast drought indicators

– Assess water and drought conditions and impacts

– Plan for mitigation

– Carry out response strategy

– Consider and address multi-disciplinary and cross-border institutional communications and coordination

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Context and pre-conditions

• Actors (stakeholders)• Information available before scenario begins• Specific processing requirements• GUI development and GEOSS portal integration• Institutional coordination

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Context and pre-conditions: Actors

• Consumers– Residential, commercial, industrial, agricultural

• Local officials– City managers, county managers

• Agency officials and staff– State Natural Resource Department decision/policy makers

– State and Federal agency water managers

– (USA) Army Corps of Engineers

• GEOSS portal integrator

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Context and pre-conditions: Information available before scenario - 1

• Example regions of interest – Near-term: Southeastern USA (NIDIS data and capabilities)

– Longer-term: Pacific Basin (Americas, Australia, Pacific Islands)

• Framework geographical datasets – Roadways, landcover, hydrography

– Locations of major agricultural production, industrial centers, and urban areas with high water resource demands

– Gazetteer and locations for built-up areas, with linked population figures

– Digital terrain/elevation model

– Orthophotography or satellite imagery

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Context and pre-conditions: Information available before scenario - 2

• Environmental data – Precipitation  – Soil moisture indices – Drought indicators

• Palmer Indices• SPI (standard precipitation index)• VHI (vegetation health index)• SWSI (surface water supply index)

– Snow water content and snow depth – Streamflow, lake and reservoir levels, and groundwater status– Soil and air temperature – Humidity – Wind speed and direction – Solar radiation

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Context and pre-conditions: Information available before scenario - 3

Documented impacts on human and natural systems – Single-sector outputs such as agricultural yields – Multi-sector impacts such as those affecting water

demands, wildfire risks, and recreation

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Context and pre-conditions: Specific processing capabilities

• Monthly and seasonal forecasting of temperatures and precipitation; anomalies (greater/lesser than normal) 12 months in advance (example source: NWS Climate Prediction Center)

• Assessment of current water conditions (precipitation, ground water, USDM indices, water monitor network, many products)

• Drought 3-month outlook (USDM subjectively derived)

• Drought impacts monitoring system with impacts database, analysis tools and practices

• Determination of drought triggers: threshold values of an indicator that distinguish drought magnitude and determine when management actions should begin and end

– PDI or USDM triggers result in actions taken by state and local managers; generally locally/regionally determined, not national

– In the US, Army Corps of Engineers may respond to triggers

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Context and pre-conditions: GUI development, GEOSS portal integration

• Data discovery tools: portal (GUI) & clearinghouse (harvester)– For community data sources (metadata) to be harvestable,

metadata server needs to support CSW

– If community data sources support standard WMS, WCS, WFS, SOS, etc. services, the portal can preview and access the actual datasets; otherwise it will simply refer user to remote server

• Data viewer client: within the portal, Google Earth, etc.• Drought research community “adopts” the portal

– Community-managed web UI – wiki, journals, pre-defined and derived maps

– Build and save projects; add new data as it emerges

– Help support cross-cutting, multi-disciplinary applications

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Context and pre-conditions:Institutional coordination

• WMO, CEOS, IGOS/IGWCO, GCOS, GEWEX• NIDIS (US National Integrated Drought Information

System)• NADM, USDM (N.American/US Drought Monitor)• FEWS (Famine Early Warning Sysem)• Drought Management Center of Southeastern Europe• HARON (Hydrological Applications and Run-Off Network)• Plus many others as potential collaborators – see

National Drought Mitigation Center International Activities

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Coordination with GEOSS tasks

• WA-08-01 – Integration of In-situ and Satellite Data for Water Cycle Monitoring

• GEO UIC coordination?

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2007 Plenary and Ministerial Summit

~40 people from 19 countries

- Argentina- Australia- Austria- Belgium- Botswana- Canada- France- Germany- Honduras- Japan

Introduction - Mark Myers, Director, USGS

North American Drought Monitor and NIDIS- Jay Lawrimore, NOAA/NCDC

FEWS NET- Tamuka Magadzire, FEWS NET Regional Scientist for Southern Africa

Drought Management Center for Southeastern Europe-Silvo Zlebir, Director, Environmental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia

SERVIR- Carrie Stokes, USAID

Drought Side Meeting • 29-Nov-2007

- Kenya- Korea - Netherlands- Norway- Panama- Slovenia- South Africa- United Kingdom- USA

Develop a Global Drought Early Warning System within the coming decade to provide:– A system of systems for data & information sharing,

communication, & capacity building to take on the growing worldwide threat of drought

– Regular drought warning assessments issued as frequently as possible with increased frequency during a crisis

United States Proposal

2007 Plenary and Ministerial Summit

• Near-term Priorities

– Develop a Task within the GEO Work Plan

– May/Jun 08: Convene a meeting of technical leadership to identify needs and priorities (Hosted by the IDEA Center in Hawaii)

• Identify needs as well as existing or potential capacities across nations • Establish initial approaches and identify one or more fundamental

aspects to address first

• Recommended approach to achieving long-term objective– Initially address by expanding regional activities

• Begin with areas strongly impacted by ENSO (Americas and Pacific: North and South America, Australia)

2007 Plenary and Ministerial Summit

Prerequisites for global drought preparedness

Must first assess each national participant’s:• Current drought monitoring capabilities and practices• Observational data network activities, capabilities, and

resources • Drought forecasting• Drought response• Current potential level of participation in global network• What is needed for them to reach their desired level of

participation– May have different levels of participation depending on

variations in countries’ capabilities and desires

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Scenario Steps (simplified)

1. Agency research staff tasked and capable to forecast seasonal & annual precipitation, temperature, soil moisture, drought

2. Research staff requests data from GEOSS portal

3. Research results show region will have severe drought

4. Assess physical and economic risks and impacts of drought, identify needed actions

5. Deliver services, assistance, mitigation (track results)

6. Notify related stakeholders regarding data and results

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Supporting data and other resources - 1

• US NIDIS Portal, http://www.drought.gov • US NIDIS, The National Integrated Drought Information System

Implementation Plan, June 2007, http://www.drought.gov/pdf/NIDIS-IPFinal-June07.pdf

• US NIDIS, Managing Drought: A roadmap for change in the United States, July 2007 http://geosociety.org/meetings/06drought/roadmap.pdf

• US National Drought Monitoring Center, Univ Nebraska, Lincolnhttp://drought.unl.edu/monitor/tools.htm

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Supporting data and other resources - 2

• Famine Early Warning System, http://www.fews.net/ • IGOS Water Theme, http://www.igospartners.org/Water.htm • IGWCO, Conceptual Framework for a Hydrological Applications

and Run-Off Network (HARON), March 2007 http://www.gewex.org/IGWCO/9.4_IGWCO_HARON.pdf

• GCOS, http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/gcos/index.php?name=geoss

• GEWEX, http://www.gewex.org/ • UN FAO, Water Development and Management Unit, 

http://www.fao.org/nr/water/infores_databases_climwat.html

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Next Steps

• Work with likely participants to identify case studies – NIDIS Portal team working on Southeast US

drought response (near term)– Broader drought science community trying to build

capacity among developing countries & islands in Pacific Basin to support DEWS (longer term)

– Others…?

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