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George Mason University

School of Policy, Government, and International Affairs

Course PUBP 769-002

“Political Violence and Terrorism”

Fall 2016

Meet Mondays, August 29 – December 5, 2016

Room 479, Founders’ Hall (Arlington Campus)

Instructor: Dr. Greg Foster Email: Gregory.Foster@gc.ndu.edu

Office Hours: Mondays, 5:30-7:00 p.m. Tel: 202-685-4166

“Politics, as a practice, whatever its professions, has always been the systematic organization of hatreds.”

– Henry Adams

“The object of terrorism is terrorism. The object of oppression is oppression. The object of torture is torture.

The object of murder is murder. The object of power is power. Now do you begin to understand me?”

– George Orwell, 1984

“Terrorism is the war of the poor, and war is the terrorism of the rich.”

– Peter Ustinov

“Terrorism, like viruses, is everywhere. There is a global profusion of terrorism, which accompanies any

system of domination as though it were its shadow, ready to activate itself anywhere, like a double agent.”

– Jean Baudrillard

“If we like them, they're freedom fighters . . . . If we don't like them, they're terrorists. In the unlikely case we

can't make up our minds, they're temporarily only guerrillas.”

– Carl Sagan

“I was called a terrorist yesterday, but when I came out of jail, many people embraced me, including

my enemies, and that is what I normally tell other people who say those who are struggling for

liberation in their country are terrorists. I tell them that I was also a terrorist yesterday, but, today,

I am admired by the very people who said I was one.”

– Nelson Mandela

Politics is everywhere – a fundamental feature of human interaction at all levels, at all times, in all

contexts. Violence, in turn, is a form that politics frequently takes, generally in the belief of those who

use it that it is decisive and effective, a preferable alternative to non-violence, especially for those who

are – or see themselves as being – unempowered, disadvantaged, oppressed, and otherwise without

hope or suitable alternatives. Terrorism is an expression of political violence, a pervasive phenomenon

today that threatens governments and peoples and thus occupies a position of public policy centrality

in the corridors of power. This course seeks to examine terrorism as political violence in an attempt to

equip course participants with a thoroughgoing understanding of the phenomenon, an appreciation of

how it affects national and international security, and the intellectual wherewithal to operate effectively

as decisionmakers, planners, and advisors charged with responsibility for formulating and

implementing effective public policy.

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Course Objectives

To examine the nature, origins, methods, effects, and consequences of terrorism as political

violence.

To explore methods and approaches for dealing effectively with terrorism.

To equip course participants with a full understanding of the national security and public policy

ramifications of terrorism.

To prepare course participants with the intellectual wherewithal to operate effectively in

positions of public-policy responsibility that deal directly or indirectly with terrorism.

Learning Outcomes

During the conduct of and upon completion of this course, students will:

Demonstrate a thorough, progressively more sophisticated understanding of terrorism, its nature,

origins, methods, effects, and consequences.

Display a full comprehension of methods and approaches for dealing effectively with terrorism.

Exhibit the ability to effectively and persuasively communicate their understanding of the

subject orally and in writing to a variety of audiences.

Be able to apply executive-level understanding and skills acquired in the course to real-world

situations and conditions.

Course Structure and Format

Because the course is a graduate-level adult learning experience in which participants are expected to

demonstrate a capacity for strategic thinking, all classes will be conducted in seminar format involving

intensive two-way dialogue. There will be no lectures. Participants are expected to be fully prepared

for each class, to demonstrate their command of assigned reading material, to be fully engaged in

classroom discussion, and to contribute actively to such discussion.

Classes will meet from 7:20 to 10:00 p.m. on Mondays (with one exception), starting August 29 and

ending December 5. There will be no class Labor Day, Monday, September 5. The Columbus Day

class will be Tuesday, October 11 (rather than Monday, October 10).

Course Deliverables

There will be a total of four student deliverables for the course:

Three Papers (detailed guidance for each to be provided in class):

Paper 1: op-ed, “Terrorism, Crime, War: Same or Different?” 750 words (3 pages), due

Lesson 3: September 19.

Paper 2: blog article, analysis of one of six forms/methods of terrorism (catastrophic/mass-

casualty terrorism, WMD terrorism, cyberterrorism, narcoterrorism, ecoterrorism, suicide

terrorism), 1500 words (6 pages), due Lesson 6: October 11.

Paper 3: policy proposal paper, contours of strategic architecture for dealing with (preventing,

mitigating, defeating) terrorism, 2000-2500 words (8-10 pages), due Lesson 14: December 5.

One Oral Presentation (detailed guidance to be provided in class): 15-minute group

presentation on one of six terrorist groups (Boko Haram, FARC, Hezbollah, Jemaah Islamiya,

Lashkar-e-Tayyiba, Lord’s Resistance Army), Lesson 9: October 31.

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Evaluation Measures

Individual grades will be determined on the following basis:

Papers: 50%.

Paper 1: 10%.

Paper 2: 15%.

Paper 3: 25%.

Oral Presentation: 20%.

Class Participation/Contribution: 30%.

Readings

There is no assigned text for the course. Readings, which will be considerable, will be articles and

reports that are publically available on the internet.

Class Conduct and Decorum

Everyone engages and contributes.

Mutual tolerance, civility, courtesy at all times!

No mobile phones!

Laptops for classroom purposes (e.g., notetaking) only!

Academic Integrity

SPGIA faculty value and expect total academic integrity – honesty, responsibility, and accountability –

in all facets of the educational experience. The George Mason University honor code will be strictly

adhered to and enforced in this course. Plagiarism – wrongfully appropriating the ideas and words of

others without proper attribution – will not be tolerated.

Students With Special Needs

If you are a student with a disability and you need academic accommodations, please see me and

contact the Disability Resource Center (DRC) at (703) 993-2474. All academic accommodations must

be arranged through the DRC.

Instructor: Gregory D. Foster

Greg Foster is a long-serving faculty member at the Dwight D. Eisenhower School for National

Security and Resource Strategy, part of the National Defense University in Washington, D.C. He

teaches graduate-level courses in national security policy and strategy, civil-military relations, ethics,

and environmental security, and he has published widely in these areas and others. A West Point

graduate, former Army officer, and veteran of the Vietnam War, he holds a doctorate in public

administration from The George Washington University and has completed several executive

development courses at the Harvard Business School.

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Schedule and Assignments

Lesson 1: Introduction, Course Overview, Foundational Concepts

Date: Monday, August 29.

Issues for Consideration:

What is terrorism? What, more fundamentally, is political violence?

How are fundamentalism, extremism, and violent extremism related?

How are terrorism, crime (including hate crime), and war related?

Why, if at all, is it useful – or necessary – to have an agreed-upon definition of terrorism?

Why is it, and why has it been, so difficult to achieve universal agreement on the definition of

terrorism? What has been the effect of such disagreement or non-agreement?

Assignment:

Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, “Terrorism”:

http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/terrorism/.

Enclopedia.com, “Terrorism”: http://www.encyclopedia.com/topic/terrorism.aspx.

Christian Walter, “Defining Terrorism in National and International Law,” UN Office on

Drugs/Crime: https://www.unodc.org/tldb/bibliography/Biblio_Terr_Def_Walter_2003.pdf.

Erin Miller, “Is This Terrorism? Why Does It Matter?” University of Maryland START:

https://www.start.umd.edu/news/terrorism-why-does-it-matter.

Joshua Sinai, “How to Define Terrorism,” Perspectives on Terrorism:

http://www.terrorismanalysts.com/pt/index.php/pot/article/view/33/html.

Lanier Burns, “Toward a Contemporary Definition of Terrorism,” Forum on Public Policy:

http://forumonpublicpolicy.com/vol2011no3/archive/burns.pdf.

Michel Wieviorka, “From Classical Terrorism to ‘Global’ Terrorism,” International Journal

of Conflict and Violence: http://www.ijcv.org/index.php/ijcv/article/view/9.

[Supplemental]: Sudha Setty, “What’s in a Name? How Nations Define Terrorism Ten

Years After 9/11,” University of Pennsylvania Journal of Law:

https://www.law.upenn.edu/live/files/139-setty33upajintll12011pdf.

Lesson 2: The Contemporary Reach and Impact of Terrorism

Date: Monday, September 12.

Issues for Consideration:

What forms has terrorism taken in recent years?

How widespread has terrorism become? Is this new or appreciably different than in the past?

What methods are now being most widely employed by terrorists? Why? To what effect(s)?

Where does terrorism occur most frequently?

How lethal and destructive has terrorism become?

Who have been the principal perpetrators and victims of terrorism?

Assignment:

Institute for Economics & Peace, Global Terrorism Index 2015:

http://economicsandpeace.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Global-Terrorism-Index-

2015.pdf. Read entire report.

James R. Clapper, “Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community,”

February 9, 2016: https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Clapper_02-09-

16.pdf.

Emma Luxton, “Is Terrorism in Europe at a Historical High?” World Economic Forum:

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/03/terrorism-in-europe-at-historical-high/.

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Jessica Zuckerman and James Carafano, “60 Terrorist Plots Since 9/11: Continued Lessons in

Domestic Terrorism,” Heritage Foundation:

http://thf_media.s3.amazonaws.com/2013/pdf/SR137.pdf.

Scott Shane, “Homegrown Extremists Tied to Deadlier Toll Than Jihadists in U.S. Since

9/11,” New York Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/25/us/tally-of-attacks-in-us-

challenges-perceptions-of-top-terror-threat.html?_r=0.

Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux, “Tracking 125,000 Incidents of Global Terrorism,”

FiveThirtyEight: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-paris-attacks-are-just-a-few-of-

125000-entries-in-the-global-terrorism-database/.

Go to University of Maryland START’s Global Terrorism Database at

https://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/. Under site’s Search feature, enter “Date,” then explore data

for 2014 and 2015 (Incidents Over Time, Attack Type, Target Type, Weapon Type,

Perpetrator, Casualties, Fatalities, Injuries, Regions).

Lesson 3: Terrorism: Causes and Motives

Date: Monday, September 19.

Paper 1 Due.

Issues for Consideration:

What are the principal and most important underlying causes of terrorism? How do we know?

What are the various motive force behind terrorism? How do we know?

Why, if at all, should we care about underlying causes and motives? How difficult is it to

determine such causes and motives?

Does knowledge of underlying causes and motives provide a sound(er) basis for predicting,

preventing, and responding effectively to terrorism?

How important, in particular, are religion, poverty, illiteracy, and socialization as underlying

causes of terrorism? How much do we know and need to know about such phenomena?

Assignment:

Luis Durani, “The Cause of Terrorism,” Foreign Policy Journal:

http://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2014/11/07/the-cause-of-terrorism/.

Nick Grothaus, “Causes of Terrorism,” Hand of Reason:

http://handofreason.com/2011/featured/causes-of-terrorism.

Jack A. Smith, “Terrorism – Causes and Consequences,” GlobalResearch:

http://www.globalresearch.ca/terrorism-causes-and-consequences/19413.

Souad Mekhennet, “What Are the Root Causes of Islamic Terrorism? World Economic

Forum: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/what-are-the-root-causes-of-islamic-

terrorism/.

Ira Straus, “The Actual Root Causes of Islamic Terrorism,” National Review:

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/414113/actual-root-causes-islamic-terrorism-ira-

straus.

Terrorism Research, “Categories of Terrorist Groups”: http://www.terrorism-

research.com/groups/categories.php.

Omer Taspinar, “Fighting Radicalism, Not ‘Terrorism’: Root Causes of an International

Actor Redefined,” SAIS Review: https://www.brookings.edu/wp-

content/uploads/2016/06/summer_fall_radicalism_taspinar.pdf.

Beenish Ahmed, “What’s the Real Root Cause of Terrorism: Poverty or Anger?”

ThinkProgress: https://thinkprogress.org/whats-the-real-root-cause-of-terrorism-poverty-or-

anger-d9d3f53324c5#.vpnpvfva9.

Alan B. Krueger and Jitka Maleckova, “Education, Poverty and Terrorism: Is There a Causal

Connection?” Journal of Economic Perspectives:

http://www.rochester.edu/College/PSC/clarke/214/Krueger03.pdf.

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Omer Taspinar, “You Can’t Understand Why people Join ISIS Without Understanding

Relative Deprivation,” Huffington Post: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/amer-tapaenar-/isis-

relative-deprivation_b_6912460.html.

David Sterman, “Don’t Dismiss Poverty’s Role in Terrorism Yet,” Time:

http://time.com/3694305/poverty-terrorism/.

Jeff Burdette, “Rethinking the Relationship Between Poverty and Terrorism,” Small Wars

Journal: http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/rethinking-the-relationship-between-poverty-

and-terrorism.

Sarah Brockhoff, et al., “More Education = Less Terrorism?” Political Violence @ a Glance:

https://politicalviolenceataglance.org/2015/12/04/more-education-less-terrorism-studying-

the-complex-relationship-between-terrorism-and-education/.

Scott Atran, “The Romance of Terror,” The Guardian:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/belief/2010/jul/19/terrorism-radical-religion.

Reza Aslan, “How Strong is the Link Between Faith and Terrorism?” CNN:

http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/26/opinion/aslan-islam-doesnt-cause-terrorism/.

Donald Winchester, “Terror: Can We Blame Religion?” Vision:

http://www.vision.org/visionmedia/religion-and-spirituality-terrorism-and-

religion/3720.aspx.

“Does Religion Cause Terrorism?” Is There a God?: http://www.is-there-a-

god.info/clues/terrorism/.

[Supplemental]: Fund for Peace, Fragile States Index 2016:

http://library.fundforpeace.org/library/fragilestatesindex-2016.pdf.

[Supplemental]: Institute for Economics & Peace, 2016 Global Peace Index:

http://static.visionofhumanity.org/sites/default/files/GPI%202016%20Report_2.pdf.

Lesson 4: Terrorists: A Profile

Date: Monday, September 26.

Issues for Consideration:

Who are, and who become, terrorists? Are there truly individuals we might categorize as

“freedom fighters”? Does this distinction, if there is one, have anything to do with the

difficulties encountered to date in arriving at a universal definition of terrorism?

Are there particular traits, characteristics, behaviors, backgrounds, or attitudes that validly

and reliably typify individuals who engage in or are prone to engage in terrorism?

How possible is it to develop (or derive) a systematic, defensible profile of a “typical”

terrorist? To what effect(s)?

Is profiling an appropriate, useful, ethical activity for intelligence purposes? What are the

civil liberties implications of such profiling?

Assignment:

Timothy Peace, “Who Becomes a Terrorist, and Why?” Washington Post:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/05/10/who-becomes-a-

terrorist-and-why/.

Matt Apuzzo, “Who Will Become a Terrorist? Research Yields Few Clues,” New York Times:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/28/world/europe/mystery-about-who-will-become-a-

terrorist-defies-clear-answers.html?_r=0.

Scott Atran, “Who Becomes a Terrorist Today?” Perspectives on Terrorism:

http://www.terrorismanalysts.com/pt/index.php/pot/article/view/35.

Tori DeAngelis, “Understanding Terrorism,” American Psychological Association:

http://www.apa.org/monitor/2009/11/terrorism.aspx.

Gina Loudon, “Profile of a Terrorist: What Makes People Blow Themselves Up,” WND:

http://www.wnd.com/2015/01/profile-of-a-terrorist-what-makes-people-blow-themselves-up/.

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Deborah Schurman-Kauflin, “Profiling Terrorist Leaders,” Psychology Today:

https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/disturbed/201310/profiling-terrorist-leaders.

Craig Whitlock, “Terrorists Proving Harder to Profile,” Washington Post:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-

dyn/content/article/2007/03/11/AR2007031101618_pf.html.

Susan Milligan, “Domestic Dispute: Who Really Fits the Profile of a Terrorist?” U.S. News &

World Report: http://www.usnews.com/news/the-report/articles/2016-01-29/defining-

domestic-terrorism.

Simon Cottee, “What Motivates Terrorists?” The Atlantic:

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/06/terrorism-isis-motive/395351/.

Mirta Galesic, “Why People Become Terrorists,” Christian Science Monitor:

http://www.csmonitor.com/Science/Complexity/2016/0121/Why-people-become-terrorists.

Bruce Hoffman, “Answers to Why People Become Terrorists,” The Daily Beast:

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/04/27/answers-to-why-people-become-

terrorists.html.

Jennifer Williams, “Why Average People Decide to Become Terrorists,” Vox:

http://www.vox.com/2016/6/14/11923514/terrorist-radicalization-orlando.

Octavio Ramos, Jr., “How People Become Terrorists,” National Security Science:

https://www.lanl.gov/science/NSS/issue3_2011/story2full.shtml.

Sarah Kershaw, “The Terrorist Mind: An Update,” New York Times:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/10/weekinreview/10kershaw.html.

Ursula Wilder, “Inside the Mind of a Terrorist,” The National Interest:

http://nationalinterest.org/print/commentary/inside-the-mind-terrorist-7007.

Lizzie Dearden, “ ISIS Documents Leak Reveals Profile of Average Militant as Young, Well-

Educated But With Only ‘Basic’ Knowledge of Islamic Law,” Independent:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/isis-documents-leak-reveals-profile-

of-average-militant-as-young-well-educated-but-with-only-basic-a6995111.html.

Patrick Tucker, “Why Join ISIS? How Fighters Respond When You Ask Them,” The

Atlantic: http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/12/why-people-join-

isis/419685/.

Patrick J. McDonnell and Erik Kirschbaum, “Brussels Suicide Bombers Fit Familiar Profile;

Links to Paris Terrorist Attacks Seen,” http://www.latimes.com/world/europe/la-fg-suspect-

in-brussels-attacks-is-sought-20160323-story.html.

Jonathan Rae, “Will It Ever be Possible to Profile the Terrorist?” Journal of Terrorism

Research: http://jtr.st-andrews.ac.uk/articles/10.15664/jtr.380/.

[Supplemental]: Peter Bergen, et al., ISIS in the West: The New Faces of Extremism, New

America: https://static.newamerica.org/attachments/11813-isis-in-the-west-2/ISP-ISIS-In-

The-West-Final-Nov-16-Final.66241afa9ddd4ea2be7afba9ec0a69e0.pdf.

[Supplemental]: Alexander Lee, “Who Becomes a Terrorist?: Poverty, Education, and the

Origins of Political Violence,” World Politics:

http://www.rochester.edu/college/psc/clarke/214/Lee11.pdf.

Lesson 5: Terrorism’s Rules of Engagement: Ethics and International Law

Date: Monday, October 3.

Issues for Consideration:

What does terrorism have to do with ethical and legal concerns/desiderata?

What ethical “rules” apply to terrorism (and, for that matter, to anti- and counter-terrorism)?

What legal “rules” apply to terrorism (and, for that matter, to anti- and counter-terrorism)?

To what extent, if any, do traditional “just war” precepts apply to terrorism?

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Under what circumstances/conditions is terrorism right (if ever)? Under what

circumstances/conditions is terrorism wrong (always? it depends?)?

Assignment:

Daniel Moeckli, “The Emergence of Terrorism as a Distinct Category of International Law,”

Texas International Law Journal:

http://www.tilj.org/content/journal/44/num2/Moeckli157.pdf.

Charles J. Dunlap, Jr., “International Law and Terrorism,” Duke University:

http://people.duke.edu/~pfeaver/dunlapterrorism.pdf.

Glenn M. Sulmasy, “The Law of Armed Conflict in the Global War on Terror: International

Lawyers Fighting the Last War,” Notre Dame Journal of Law, Ethics & Public Policy:

http://scholarship.law.nd.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1203&context=ndjlepp.

Daniel O’Donnell, “International Treaties Against Terrorism and the Use of Terrorism

During Armed Conflict and by Armed Forces,” International Review of the Red Cross: https://www.icrc.org/eng/assets/files/other/irrc_864_odonnell.pdf.

Samuel Scheffler, “Is Terrorism Morally Distinctive?” The Journal of Political Philosophy:

http://philosophy.fas.nyu.edu/docs/IO/4864/Scheffler-Is-Terrorism-Morally-Distinctive.pdf.

Ben Saul, “Two Justifications for Terrorism: A Moral Legal Response,” Foreign Policy in

Focus: http://fpif.org/two_justifications_for_terrorism_a_moral_legal_response/.

Adam Groves, “Is It Possible to Ethically Evaluate terrorism by Employing Just War

Principles?” E-International Relations Students: http://www.e-ir.info/2007/12/02/is-it-

possible-to-ethically-evaluate-terrorism-by-employing-just-war-principles/.

Talal Asad, “Thinking About Terrorism and Just War,” Cambridge Review of International

Affairs: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/09557570902956580.

Robert E. Kelley, “Is Terrorism Always Wrong?” Perspectives on Terrorism:

http://www.terrorismanalysts.com/pt/index.php/pot/article/view/is-terrorism-always-

wrong/html.

Brian Brivati, “Yes, Terrorism Can Be Justified,” The Guardian:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2009/aug/19/terrorism-miliband-taliban-anc.

[Supplemental]: UN Office on Drugs/Crime, International Law Aspects of Countering

Terrorism: https://www.unodc.org/documents/terrorism/Publications/FAQ/English.pdf.

Lesson 6: Terrorism: Forms and Methods

Date: Tuesday, October 11.

Paper 2 due.

Issues for Consideration:

What forms might terrorism take? What methods might terrorists employ?

What might we learn from focusing attention on catastrophic/mass-casualty terrorism, MDW

(nuclear and biological) terrorism, cyberterrorism, narcoterrorism, ecoterrorism, and suicide

terrorism in particular?

What are these various forms of terrorism, who employs them, how dangerous are they, what

are their effects, how manageable are they, what can be done to “manage” them?

How should we go about ranking these various forms of terrorism in terms of their

seriousness or criticality as threats? How should that influence the approach of governments

in countering them?

Assignment:

Terrorism Research, “Types of Terrorist Incidents,”: http://www.terrorism-

research.com/incidents/.

Department of Homeland Security/Federal Bureau of Investigation, Potential Terrorist Attack

Methods: http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/nukevault/ebb388/docs/EBB015.pdf.

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Catastrophic/Mass-Casualty Terrorism: Tony Karon, “Paris Massacres Underscore the

Macabre Logic of Mass Terror,” Al Jazeera:

http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2015/11/13/paris-massacres-underscore-the-macabre-

logic-of-mass-terror.html; and Ahmed Salah Hashim, “Cities Under Siege: Mass Casualty

Urban Terrorism Assaults,” ETH Zurich: http://www.css.ethz.ch/en/services/digital-

library/articles/article.html/faffcfbd-962c-4da5-8800-ca79064e263a.

MDW Terrorism: Joe Cirincione, “Nuclear Terrorist Threat Bigger Than You Think,” CNN:

http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/01/opinions/nuclear-terrorism-threat-cirincione/; Elisabeth

Eaves, “What Does ‘Nuclear Terrorism’ Really Mean?” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists:

http://thebulletin.org/what-does-nuclear-terrorism-really-mean9309; Wil S. Hylton, “How

Ready Are We for Bioterrorism?” New York Times Magazine:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/30/magazine/how-ready-are-we-for-

bioterrorism.html?_r=0; and Dina Fine Maron, “Weaponized Ebola: Is It Really a Bioterror

Threat?” Scientific American: http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/weaponized-ebola-

is-it-really-a-bioterror-threat/.

Cyberterrorism: Thomas S. Chen, Cyberterrorism After Stuxnet, Strategic Studies

Institute/U.S. Army War College:

http://strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB1211.pdf; and Scott Stewart, “The

Coming Age of Cyberterrorism,” Security Weekly: https://www.stratfor.com/weekly/coming-

age-cyberterrorism.

Narcoterrorism: Ginger Thompson, “Trafficking in Terror,” New Yorker:

https://www.stratfor.com/weekly/coming-age-cyberterrorism; and Douglas Century, “ISIS

and the New Face of Narcoterrorism,” Tablet Magazine:

http://www.tabletmag.com/scroll/186110/isis-and-the-new-face-of-narcoterrorism.

Ecoterrorism: Nick Deshpande and Howard Ernst, Countering Eco-Terrorism in the United

States: The Case of ‘Operation Backfire’, National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism

and Responses to Terrorism:

https://www.start.umd.edu/sites/default/files/files/publications/Countermeasures_OperationB

ackfire.pdf; and Sivan Hirsch-Hoefler and Cas Mudde, “Ecoterrorism: Threat or Political

Ploy?” Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-

cage/wp/2014/12/19/ecoterrorism-threat-or-political-ploy/.

Suicide Terrorism: Bruce Hoffman, “The Logic of Suicide Terrorism,” The Atlantic:

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2003/06/the-logic-of-suicide-

terrorism/302739/; and Luis de la Corte Ibanez, “The Social Psychology of Suicide

Terrorism,” International Institute for Counter-Terrorism:

https://www.ict.org.il/Article/1233/The-Social-Psychology-of-Suicide-Terrorism.

[Supplemental]: Andrew H. Kidd and Barbara F. Walter, “The Strategies of Terrorism,”

International Security:

http://isites.harvard.edu/fs/docs/icb.topic1341873.files/Week%208/Kydd_2006.pdf.

Lesson 7: Terrorism: Effective or Not?

Date: Monday, October 17.

Issues for Consideration:

Is terrorism effective in achieving the goals of those who practice it? Is it effective as a (non-

state) exercise of power? as “asymmetric warfare”?

How do we determine whether terrorism works or not? What measures do we, and should we,

employ? Does it matter?

Does terrorism give new meaning to traditional notions of success and failure, victory and

defeat, superiority and inferiority?

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How does the challenge of defining success or failure for terrorists affect the ability of

governments to claim success over (or deny failure at the hands of) terrorists?

Assignment:

Sverrir Steinsson, “Is Terrorism an Effective Way to Attain Political Goals?” E-International

Relations Students: http://www.e-ir.info/2014/06/22/is-terrorism-an-effective-way-to-attain-

political-goals/.

James M. Lutz and Brenda J. Lutz, “How Successful is Terrorism?” Forum on Public Policy:

http://forumonpublicpolicy.com/spring09papers/archivespr09/lutz.pdf.

David A. Graham, “Does Terrorism Work?” The Atlantic:

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/05/does-terrorism-work/394028/.

Max Abrahms, “Does Terrorism Work as a Political Strategy? The Evidence Says No,” Los

Angeles Times: http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-0403-abrahms-strategic-model-

terrorism-20160403-story.html.

Max Abrahms, “Why Terrorism Does Not Work,” International Security:

http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/isec.2006.31.2.42.

Peter Bergen, “Why ISIS Terrorism Won’t Work,” CNN:

http://www.cnn.com/2015/02/06/opinion/bergen-isis-terrorism/.

Alan Dershowitz, “Why Terrorism Works,” Salon:

http://www.salon.com/2002/09/12/dershowitz_3/.

Jakana Thomas, “Actually, Sometimes Terrorism Does Work,” Washington Post:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2014/04/22/actually-sometimes-

terrorism-does-work/.

[Supplemental]: Virginia Page Fortna, “Do Terrorists Win? Rebels’ Use of Terrorism and

Civil War Outcomes,” International Organization:

http://polisci.columbia.edu/files/polisci/u78/Fortna%20IO%202015%20Final.pdf.

Lesson 8: Terrorist Groups: ISIS and Al Qaeda

Date: Monday, October 24.

Issues for Consideration:

Why, if at all, should ISIS and Al Qaeda receive special attention from those who wish to

understand terrorism?

What are the origins, aims, motives and methods, locus and reach, strengths and weaknesses,

impact and accomplishments of ISIS and Al Qaeda?

What lessons can be drawn from investigating ISIS and Al Qaeda that can be relevant and

useful for dealing with terrorism more generally?

To what extent, if at all, do ISIS and Al Qaeda represent a new era of postmodern, post-state

international relations that challenges traditional notions of sovereignty, territorial integrity,

self-determination, aggression, intervention, and war?

Assignment:

Zachary Laub, “The Islamic State,” CFR Backgrounder: http://www.cfr.org/iraq/islamic-

state/p14811.

Mapping Militant Organizations, “The Islamic State,” Stanford University:

http://web.stanford.edu/group/mappingmilitants/cgi-bin/groups/view/1.

Erin Marie Saltman and Charlie Winter, Islamic State: The Changing Face of Modern

Jihadism, Quilliam Foundation: https://www.quilliamfoundation.org/wp/wp-

content/uploads/publications/free/islamic-state-the-changing-face-of-modern-jihadism.pdf.

Graeme Wood, “What ISIS Really Wants,” The Atlantic:

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/03/what-isis-really-wants/384980/.

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David D. Kirkpatrick, “ISIS’ Harsh Brand of Islam is Rooted in Austere Saudi Creed,” New

York Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/25/world/middleeast/isis-abu-bakr-baghdadi-

caliph-wahhabi.html?_r=0.

Jayshree Bajoria and Greg Bruno, “al-Qaeda (a.k.a al-Qaida, al-Qa’ida),” Council on Foreign

Relations: http://www.cfr.org/terrorist-organizations-and-networks/al-qaeda-k-al-qaida-al-

qaida/p9126.

CFR.org Staff, “Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP),” CFR Backgrounder:

http://www.cfr.org/yemen/al-qaeda-arabian-peninsula-aqap/p9369.

Zachary Laub and Jonathan Masters, “Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM),” CFR

Backgrounder: http://www.cfr.org/terrorist-organizations-and-networks/al-qaeda-islamic-

maghreb-aqim/p12717.

Mapping Militant Organizations, “Al Qaeda,” Stanford University:

http://web.stanford.edu/group/mappingmilitants/cgi-bin/groups/view/21.

John Rollins, Al Qaeda and Affiliates: Historical Perspective, Global Presence, and

Implications for U.S. Policy, Congressional Research Service:

https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/terror/R41070.pdf.

Anti-Defamation League, “Al Qaeda,”:

http://archive.adl.org/terrorism/profiles/al_qaeda.html#.V7L9XKIsDkg.

Shiv Malik, et al., “How ISIS Crippled al-Qaida,” The Guardian:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jun/10/how-isis-crippled-al-qaida.

Jared Malsin, “What to Know About the Deadly ISIS vs. al-Qaeda Rivalry,” Time:

http://time.com/4124810/isis-al-qaeda-rivalry-terror-attacks-mali-paris/.

[Supplemental]: Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center, ISIS: Portrait of

a Jihadi Terrorist Organization: http://www.terrorism-

info.org.il/Data/articles/Art_20733/E_101_14_163836165.pdf.

Lesson 9: Terrorist Groups: Others

Date: Monday, October 31.

Issues for Consideration:

What are some other noteworthy terrorist groups? What makes them especially noteworthy?

What might we learn of more general relevance from focusing attention on such groups as

Boko Haram, FARC, Hezbollah, Jemaah Islamiya, Lashkar-e-Tayyiba, and the Lord’s

Resistance Army?

What are the origins, aims, motives and methods, locus and reach, strengths and weaknesses,

impact and accomplishments of these particular groups?

How does understanding these groups (and others) inform the approach(es) governments

might or should take to counter them?

Assignment:

Student-conducted research and group oral presentations on the following six terrorist groups:

Boko Haram, FARC, Hezbollah, Jemaah Islamiya, Lashkar-e-Tayyiba, Lord’s Resistance

Army.

Useful starting point for researching these groups is the Stanford University Mapping

Militant Organizations site: http://web.stanford.edu/group/mappingmilitants/cgi-bin/,

especially http://web.stanford.edu/group/mappingmilitants/cgi-bin/groups.

Lesson 10: State Terrorism and State-Sponsored Terrorism

Date: Monday, November 7.

Issues for Consideration:

What are state terrorism and state-sponsored terrorism?

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What states might legitimately be characterized as practitioners of state terrorism? Is there

such a thing as state terrorism? What methods do states employ that could be considered a

defensible basis for categorizing those states as state terrorists?

Does the question of state terrorism have anything to do with the difficulties encountered to

date in arriving at a universal definition of terrorism?

What states are sponsors of terrorism? Who determines that? What is the process for labeling

a state a sponsor of terrorism? To what effect?

Assignment:

Terrorism Research, “State Sponsored Terrorism”: http://www.terrorism-research.com/state/.

Michael Stohl, “The Global War on Terror and State Terrorism,” Perspectives on Terrorism:

http://www.terrorismanalysts.com/pt/index.php/pot/article/view/48/html.

Thomas Riegler, “The State as a Terrorist? Arguing for a Category of “State Terrorism”:

http://www.inter-disciplinary.net/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/riegler-paper1.pdf.

Thalif Deen, “U.N. Remains Divided Over Domestic and State Terrorism,” Inter Press

Service: http://www.ipsnews.net/2015/07/u-n-remains-divided-over-domestic-and-state-

terrorism/.

Noam Chomsky, “The Leading Terrorist State,” Truthout: http://www.truth-

out.org/opinion/item/27201-the-leading-terrorist-state.

Jonathan Cook, “Israel is a Terrorist State,” Al Jazeera:

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/10/terrorist-state-151011084548356.html.

Michael Weiss, “The President Who Dared to Call Putin’s Russia What It Is: A Terrorist

State,” The Daily Beast: http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/03/18/the-president-

who-dared-to-call-putin-s-russia-what-it-is-a-terrorist-state.html.

Ishtiaq Ahmad, “State Sponsored Terrorism,” Terrorism Research & Analysis Consortium:

http://www.trackingterrorism.org/book/export/html/1184.

U.S. Department of State, “Chapter 3: State Sponsors of Terrorism Overview,” Country

Reports on Terrorism 2015: http://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/crt/2015/257520.htm.

Dianne E. Rennack, State Sponsors of Acts of International Terrorism – Legislative

Parameters: In Brief, Congressional Research Service:

https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/terror/R43835.pdf.

Paul R. Pillar, “The Decline of State-Sponsored Terrorism,” The Atlantic:

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/05/the-decline-of-state-sponsored-

terrorism/257515/.

Felicia Schwartz, “Cuba Officially Removed From U.S. State Sponsor of Terrorism List,”

Wall Street Journal: http://www.wsj.com/articles/cuba-officially-removed-from-u-s-state-

sponsor-of-terrorism-list-1432913160.

Krishnadev Calamur, “Who’s on the List of State Sponsors of Terrorism and Why?” National

Public Radio: http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2015/04/15/399809412/whos-on-the-

list-of-state-sponsors-of-terrorism-and-why.

Dennis Jett, “Why the State Sponsors of Terrorism List Has So Little to Do With Terrorism,”

Huffington Post: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dennis-jett/state-sponsors-of-terrorism-

list_b_7658880.html.

Lesson 11: Anti-Terrorism and Counterterrorism: Methods and Means

Date: Monday, November 14.

Issues for Consideration:

What are the various methods and means that might be employed to deal with terrorism?

What should we know, in particular, about military force, covert action and intelligence,

targeted killing and drone strikes, torture, enforced disappearance and extraordinary

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rendition, negotiations, strategic communications, and financial sanctions that can prove

useful in determining the efficacy of various anti-terrorism and counter-terrorism measures?

What are the strengths, weaknesses, and constraints of these various methods?

What can we learn from the successes and failures of these methods to date that might have

enduring relevance for the future?

Assignment:

Military Force: Jason Hanna, “Targeting Terrorists With Bombs and Bullets,” CNN:

http://www.cnn.com/interactive/2014/09/world/us-terror-groups/; and Christian J. Tams,

“The Use of Force Against Terrorists,” European Journal of International Law:

http://www.ejil.org/pdfs/20/2/1793.pdf.

Covert Action/Intelligence: Seth G. Jones, “Counterterrorism and the Role of Special

Operations Forces,” Congressional Testimony:

http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/testimonies/CT400/CT408/RAND_CT408.pdf;

James Kitfield, “5 Takeaways From the U.S. Special Ops Raids in Somalia and Libya,”

DefenseOne: http://www.defenseone.com/business/2013/10/five-takeaways-us-special-

forces-raids-somalia-and-libya/71576/print/; and Richard J. Hughbank and Don Githens,

“Intelligence and Its Role in Protecting Against Terrorism,” Journal of Strategic Security:

http://scholarcommons.usf.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1020&context=jss.

Targeted Killing/Drone Strikes: Steven Groves, “Drone Strikes: The Legality of U.S.

Targeting Terrorists Abroad,” Heritage Foundation Backgrounder:

http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2013/04/drone-strikes-the-legality-of-us-targeting-

terrorists-abroad; Alex de Waal, “Assassinating Terrorists Does Not Work,” Boston Review:

http://bostonreview.net/blog/alex-de-waal-assassinating-terrorists-does-not-work; Scott

Shane, “Targeted Killing Comes to Define War on Terror,” New York Times:

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/08/world/targeted-killing-comes-to-define-war-on-

terror.html?_r=0; and Spencer Ackerman, “41 Men Targeted But 1,147 People Killed: US

Drone Strikes – The Facts on the Ground,” The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/us-

news/2014/nov/24/-sp-us-drone-strikes-kill-1147.

Torture: Steven M. Kleinman, “The Promise of Interrogation v. the Problem of Torture,”

Valparaiso University Law Review:

http://scholar.valpo.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1128&context=vulr; and Rebecca Evans,

“The Ethics of Torture,” Human Rights & Human Welfare:

https://www.ciaonet.org/attachments/502/uploads.

Enforced Disappearance/Extraordinary Rendition: Human Rights Watch, U.S.

Responsibility for Enforced Disappearances in the “War on Terror”:

https://www.hrw.org/legacy/backgrounder/usa/ct0607/ct0607web.pdf; Jonathan Horowitz

and Stacy Cammarano, “20 Extraordinary Facts about CIA Extraordinary Rendition and

Secret Detention,” Open Society Foundations:

https://www.opensocietyfoundations.org/voices/20-extraordinary-facts-about-cia-

extraordinary-rendition-and-secret-detention; and Mark J. Murray, “Extraordinary Rendition

and U.S. Counterterrorism Policy,” Journal of Strategic Security:

http://scholarcommons.usf.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1100&context=jss.

Negotiations: Maura McQuade, “U.S. Policy on Negotiations: Undermining International

Law, Hemispheres: https://tuftshemispheres.org/2015/04/10/u-s-policy-on-negotiations-

undermining-international-law/; Jonathan Powell, “How to Talk to Terrorists,” The

Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/07/-sp-how-to-talk-to-terrorists-isis-

al-qaida; and Audrey Kurth Cronin, “When Should We Talk to Terrorists?” United States

Institute of Peace Special Report: https://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/SR240Cronin.pdf.

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Strategic Communications: Naureen Chowdhury Fink and Jack Barclay, Mastering the

Narrative: Counterterrorism Strategic Communication and the United Nations, Center on

Global Counterterrorism Cooperation: http://globalcenter.org/wp-

content/uploads/2013/03/Feb2013_CT_StratComm.pdf; Cristina Archetti, “Terrorism,

Communication and New Media: Explaining Radicalization in the Digital Age,” Perspective

on Terrorism: http://www.terrorismanalysts.com/pt/index.php/pot/article/view/401/html.

Financial Sanctions: Matthew Levitt, “Terrorist Financing and the Islamic State,”

Congressional Testimony:

http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/uploads/Documents/testimony/LevittTestimony20141113

.pdf; and United Nations Counter-Terrorism Implementation Task Force, Tackling the

Financing of Terrorism:

http://www.un.org/en/terrorism/ctitf/pdfs/ctitf_financing_eng_final.pdf.

Lesson 12: Dealing with Terrorism: The U.S. Approach

Date: Monday, November 21.

Issues for Consideration:

What are the defining characteristics of the U.S. approach to dealing with terrorism?

What ideological, political, sociocultural, economic, and technological factors affect how

U.S. decisionmakers have chosen to deal with terrorism?

Are there singular or unique factors characterizing the American system of politics and

governance that distinguish the U.S. approach to terrorism?

What are the particular strengths, weaknesses, and vulnerabilities of the U.S. approach?

Assignment:

White House, National Strategy for Counterterrorism:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/counterterrorism_strategy.pdf.

Department of State/USAID, Joint Strategy on Countering Violent Extremism:

https://www.state.gov/documents/organization/257913.pdf.

White House, Fact Sheet: “U.S. Policy Standards and Procedures for the Use of Force in

Counterterrorism Operations Outside the United States and Areas of Active Hostilities”:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2013/05/23/fact-sheet-us-policy-standards-and-

procedures-use-force-counterterrorism.

WETA/PBS, “Global Connections: The Middle East: What Have Been the Role and Effects

of U.S. Foreign Policy and Actions in the Middle East?”:

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/globalconnections/mideast/questions/uspolicy/index.html.

Benjamin Wittes and Daniel L. Byman, “Flowchart: How the Government Handles a

Terrorist Threat,” Brookings Institution: https://www.brookings.edu/interactives/flowchart-

how-the-government-handles-a-terrorist-threat/.

Sumit Galhotra, “Domestic Terror: Are We Doing Enough to Combat the Threat From

Within?” CNN: https://www.brookings.edu/interactives/flowchart-how-the-government-

handles-a-terrorist-threat/.

Helene Cooper, “U.S. Drops Snark in Favor of Emotion to Undercut Extremists,” New York

Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/29/world/middleeast/isis-recruiting.html?_r=0.

Julie Hirschfeld Davis, “In Hostage-Terrorist Policy Shift, Obama Admits Failures,” New

York Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/25/world/middleeast/obama-softens-policy-

on-hostage-negotiations-with-terrorist-groups.html.

Rosa Brooks, “U.S. Counterterrorism Strategy is the Definition of Insanity,” Foreign Policy:

http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/06/24/u-s-counterterrorism-strategy-is-the-definition-of-

insanity/.

David Rothkopf, “We Are Losing the War on Terror,” Foreign Policy:

http://foreignpolicy.com/2014/06/10/we-are-losing-the-war-on-terror/.

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Robert Golan-Vilella, “America is Never (Ever, Ever) Ending the War on Terror,” The

National Interest: http://nationalinterest.org/print/feature/america-never-ever-ever-ending-

the-war-terror-12744.

Christopher Preble, “We Are Terrorized: Why U.S. Counterterrorism Policy is Failing, and

Why It Can’t Be Easily Fixed,” War on the Rocks: http://warontherocks.com/2016/01/we-are-

terrorized-why-u-s-counterterrorism-policy-is-failing-and-why-it-cant-be-easily-fixed/.

Lesson 13: Dealing with Terrorism: How Others Do It

Date: Monday, November 28.

Issues for Consideration:

How do other key countries – specifically, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Israel, and

Russia – deal with terrorism?

What lessons, if any, might we draw from these various approaches that could enhance our

understanding of and ability to respond effectively to terrorism?

What lessons, if any, might others countries draw from the U.S. experience in dealing with

terrorism?

Are there commonalities and differences that are especially worth noting? What explains

these commonalities and differences?

Assignment:

Alona Ferber and Patrick Wehner, “How France and Other Countries Around the World

Treat Terrorists,” Haaretz: http://www.haaretz.com/world-news/1.634334.

United Kingdom: UK HM Government, CONTEST: The United Kingdom’s Strategy for

Countering Terrorism: Annual Report for 2015:

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/539683/55469

_Cm_9310_Web_Accessible_v0.11.pdf; Nicole Magney, “CONTEST, Prevent, and the

Lessons of UK Counterterrorism Policy,” Georgetown Security Studies Review:

http://georgetownsecuritystudiesreview.org/2016/05/16/contest-prevent-and-the-lessons-of-

uk-counterterrorism-policy/; Benjamin David, “The UK’s Counter-Terrorism Strategy is

Flawed – Is There an Alternative?” Huffington Post:

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/benjamin-david/prevent-is-flawed-but-is-

_b_10186416.html; Rachel Shabii, “UK Counterterrorism Strategy Just Does Not ‘Prevent,’”

Al Jazeera: http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2016/02/uk-counterterrorism-strategy-

prevent-160221133827418.html; and Tahir Abbas and Imran Awan, “Limits of UK

Counterterrorism Policy and Its Implications for Islamophobia and Far Right Extremism,”

International Journal for Crime, Justice and Social Democracy:

https://www.crimejusticejournal.com/article/view/241/pdf.

France: French Ministry of Foreign Affairs, “Counter-Terrorism in France”:

http://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/french-foreign-policy/defence-security/terrorism/; French

Ministry of Foreign Affairs, “The Principles of France’s Counter-Terrorism Action”:

http://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/french-foreign-policy/defence-security/terrorism/france-s-

action/; LegislationLine, “France: Counter-Terrorism”:

http://www.legislationline.org/topics/country/30/topic/5; Yoram Schweitzer, et al., “French

Counterterrorism Strategy at a Crossroads,” INSS Insight:

http://www.inss.org.il/uploadImages/systemFiles/No.%20838%20-

%20Yoram,%20Sarah,%20and%20Einav%20for%20web902145489.pdf; Victoria Baux and

Charles Emptaz, “Backlash: France’s New Hard Line on Terror,” Al Jazeera:

http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/peopleandpower/2016/03/backlash-frances-hard-line-

terror-160310080855190.html; Amar Toor, “France’s Anti-terrorism Laws Leave Muslims in

a State of Fear,” The Verge: http://www.theverge.com/2016/1/29/10860964/france-state-of-

emergency-muslim-paris-attacks; Amar Toor, “France Extends Draconian Anti-Terrorism

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Laws,” The Verge: http://www.theverge.com/2016/2/17/11031006/france-extends-state-of-

emergency-paris-attacks.

Germany: LegislationLine, “Germany: Counter-Terrorism”:

http://www.legislationline.org/topics/country/28/topic/5; Counter-Extremism Project,

“Germany: Extremism & Counter-Terrorism,”:

http://www.counterextremism.com/sites/default/files/country_pdf/DE-07252016.pdf; Alison

Smale, “Germany Proposes Tougher Measures to Combat Terrorism,” New York Times:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/12/world/europe/germany-antiterrorism-

measures.html?_r=0; “Losing Trust: Frustrations Grow Over German Response to Terror,”

Spiegel: http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/frustrations-grow-over-german-

response-to-terror-a-1107413-druck.html; “Terrorism Wave in Germany Forces Berlin to

Plan Broad Range of Civil Defense Measures,” RT: https://www.rt.com/news/354639-

germany-civil-defense-measures/.

Israel: Uri Ben Yaakov, “Policy Paper: Israel’s Counter Terrorism Bill,” International

Institute for Counter-Terrorism: https://www.ict.org.il/UserFiles/ICT-Proposed-CT-Bill-PP-

Jul-16.pdf; Charles David Freilich, “Israel’s Counter-Terrorism Policy: How Effective?”

Terrorism and Political Violence:

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09546553.2015.1044602; Adash Aravind, “A

Critical Analysis of Israel’s Counter-Terrorism Strategy,” Foreign Policy News:

http://foreignpolicynews.org/2016/08/08/a-critical-analysis-of-israels-counter-terorrism-

strategy/; Alina Dain Sharon and Sean Savage, “Taking On the Terror Trio: Israel’s Strategy

vs. Hamas, Hezbollah, Islamic State,” Jewish News Service: http://www.jns.org/latest-

articles/2014/9/19/taking-on-the-terror-trio-israels-strategy-vs-hamas-hezbollah-islamic-

state#.V7N0l6IsDkg=; and Ophir Falk, “Measuring the Effectiveness of Israel’s ‘Targeted

Killing’ Campaign,” Perspectives on Terrorism:

http://www.terrorismanalysts.com/pt/index.php/pot/article/view/399/792.

Russia: Joshua Sinai, “Russian Counterterrorism Policy,” Jewish Policy Center:

http://www.jewishpolicycenter.org/2013/12/31/russia-counterterrorism-policy/; Ivan

Nechepurenko, “Russia Moves to Tighten Counterterror Law; Rights Activists See Threat to

Freedoms,” New York Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/25/world/europe/russia-

counterterrorism-yarovaya-law.html; Stratfor, “Russia Rethinks How It Handles Terrorism”:

https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/russia-rethinks-how-it-handles-terrorism; Mariya

Omelicheva, “Russia’s Counterterrorism Policy: Variations on an Imperial Theme,”

Perspectives on Terrorism:

http://www.terrorismanalysts.com/pt/index.php/pot/article/view/61/html; T.C. Sottek, “Russia

Moves Toward Alarming New Counter-Terrorism Law,” The Verge:

http://www.theverge.com/2016/6/26/12033480/russia-counter-terrorism-bill-yarovaya-law;

Alec Luhn, “Russia Passes ‘Big Brother’ Anti-Terror Laws,” The Guardian:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/26/russia-passes-big-brother-anti-terror-laws;

and Saagar Enjeti, “Russia’s Anti-ISIS Strategy May Be Backfiring,” The Daily Caller:

http://dailycaller.com/2016/06/04/russias-anti-isis-strategy-may-be-backfiring/.

Lesson 14: The Future: Preventing/Mitigating/Defeating Terrorism?

Date: Monday, December 5.

Paper 3 due.

Issues for Consideration:

What future conditions, circumstances, and developments are likely to affect the resort to

political violence in various forms?

How, if at all, is terrorism likely to change (in terms of its likelihood, pervasiveness, forms,

effects, and consequences)?

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How, if at all, might public attitudes toward terrorism change, to what effect in terms of

expectations of government and pressures on governments to respond effectively?

What changes, if any, might we reasonably expect from governments in terms of their ability

to “manage” (anticipate, prevent, mitigate the effects of, respond to) terrorism?

Assignment:

Terrorism Research, “Future Trends in Terrorism”: http://www.terrorism-

research.com/future/.

Strategic Foresight Initiative/Federal Emergency Management Agency, “Evolving Terrorist

Threat”: http://www.fema.gov/pdf/about/programs/oppa/evolving_terrorist_threat.pdf.

Edwin Bakker, Forecasting the Unpredictable: A Review of Forecasts on Terrorism, 2000-

2012, International Centre for Counter-Terrorism: http://www.icct.nl/download/file/ICCT-

Bakker-Forecasting-the-Unpredictable-July-2012.pdf.

Homeland Security Advisory Council, Report of the Future of Terrorism Task Force:

https://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/hsac-future-terrorism-010107.pdf.

Marvin Cetron and Owen Davies, 55 Trends Now Shaping the Future of Terrorism, The

Proteus Trends Series: http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/army/proteus-55-terror.pdf.

[Supplemental]: National Intelligence Council, Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds:

https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/GlobalTrends_2030.pdf.

[Supplemental]: National Intelligence Council, Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World:

https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Newsroom/Reports%20and%20Pubs/2025_Global_Tre

nds_Final_Report.pdf.