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InstrumentUsed for 1Lac investment
Lock- in
Return % Tax deduction
Return in ` @10 Yrs
Shortfall considering 17% CPI
PPF, NPS, KVP, IVP, any G-Sec, ULIP
3-7 yrs 7-8% No(only till 1 lac per year)
199900.5 210940
Real Estate 5-10 yrs
15-17%(follows CPI)
Yes 410840 0
Bank Fixed Deposit Nil 10% Yes 251685 159155Gold(3) Nil 12% Yes 277307 133532Mutual Funds(4) Nil 15% Yes 351787 59052
(3)GOLD:- Is said to be the evergreen currency but has only appreciated its value by just 1.5 times in last 30 years , adjusting for CPI. As it purchased one time will not account for tax deduction every year- BUT This return is counted on 99.95% pure gold bars so it can be not used as ornaments and if used in that way it will not fetch that much return.
(4) MF/ULIPs/ any other regulated saving scheme- SAYS 30% + returns but even the best of them(reliance GROWTH) is giving 28% return considering that you have locked-in money in that before 15 years at NFO price . Industry average is 8% for ULIPS which has a 3-year lock-in period and 15% for Mutual-Funds where you can see some meaningful return only after 3+ years
SCENARIO OF INVESTMENT DONE IN VARIOUS TYPES OF ASSETS
Return/month /1LacACTIVE INVESTING
Total Expense(Insurance cover for ALL)
Returns after all expenses
Effective yield After covering yr Family to most Financial disastrs
2 1212322 #Life insurance(Term insurance. + ADBR & WOP riders) @60 X of earning for earning member-- Now@15600(6% incr. /yr.) ----------393-596/month # Medical insuranceFor whole family-------1215-1936/month# Home insurance --------- 600-1100/month
251827 ~10.9
2.5 2245673 791687 ~25.85
3 4144673 1898947 ~38.68
3.5 7629289 4096686 ~51.07
4 14002344 8363063 ~63.23
Family includes(1)Mother (2)Father(3)You (4)Your Spouse(5&6) Children's
i.e 1LAC initially invested for 10 years in Equity (@19-just
passive investing) will be 478544 & 410840 is needed to have same purchasing power considering 17% CPI-
CLEAR SURPLUS of 67704.
OTHER TYPS OF ASSETS AR UNABLE TO MAINTAIN YR PURCHASING POWR, WHILE EQUITIES DO.
Equity Markets are compounding with 13% YOY for last 20 years –considering NIFTY (Benchmark)
–NIFTY moved from 1550 in 2000 to 6274 on 2008 which can be calculated as 19 % YOY compounded
and has Double from 2700 from MAR 2009 in this 17 months Its futures movement in line with past performance can be supported by (1)Correction and bounce-back has clearly indicated that this is inherent level of Indian economy as on now,
+ the supporting trend is seen in
(2) Inherent ability of Indian Economy to grow to trillion dollar economy (LOWER CHART IN SLIDE 6)(3)Private Investment(mostly FDI) (UPPER CHART IN SLIDE 7) AND by investing more than 45623 Cr in equity till sep-10 due to increased confidence in INDIAN system enhancing liquidity DUE TO Stable government Deregulation of PETROL and (Proposed) DIESEL, Bar association regulation and Infrastructure development for boost up of inland trade and global trade which are making INDIA at par with international system where only and only performance is counted.
(4) SENSEX ROE (LOWER CHART IN SLIDE 7)(5)SENSEX EPS (UPPER CHART IN SLIDE 8)(6)IIP(Index of industrial production) movements back to original trend) (LOWER CHART IN SLIDE 8)(7)HOUSEHOLD INCOME, (UPPER CHART IN SLIDE 9)(8)SAVINGS LEVEL (LOWER CHART IN SLIDE 9)(9)General Economy uptrend (UPPER CHART IN SLIDE 10)(10)GOVT. SUPPORT TO BOOST ECONOMY (FREIGHT CORRIDOR) (LOWER CHART IN SLIDE 10)(11)PORTS level of Traffic (SLIDE 11)(12)HEALTH CARE (UPPER CHARTS IN SLIDE 12)(13)Secior wise PAT (CAGR) (LOWER CHARTS IN SLIDE 12)
(14) Govt. also took out >50% of stimulus given, which was just 8% of the American govt. stimulus given in there country.
NIFTY 1550 6179
AMBUJA 335(spl 10:2) 7.5*144+111=1011 2x
ACC 268 1033+190 div =1034 3.5x
ONGC 205 1389*1.5+231=2314 10.3x
RIL 345 1033*2+68=2135 5.2x
GAIL 65(IPO) 492*1.5+47.25=785.25 11x
BPCL 407 663+43=809 0.98x
LT 597 2069*4+92.5=8368 13x
ABB 262 775*5+50=3675 16.8x
RANBAXY 974 447+25.5=462.5 (0.5x)
BHEL 224 2498*2+133=5129 22.3x
2000 2010 Gain%
SUNPHAR 1760 2047*4 +54=8242 3.6x
CIPLA 1380 330*7.5+92.5=2567 0.86x
TATASTEEL 148 679+81=760 4.3x
HINDALCO 851 210*10+28=2128 1.5x
STER 452(listed on 28-may-04)
176*40+171=7211 14.95x
BHARTIARTL 44(18-feb-02) 355*2+15=732 15.4x
RCOM 291(6-mar-06) 176.9 (0.4x)
IDEA 121(9-mar--07) 72.8 (0.4x)
ONGC
GAIL
BHEL
STER
SOURCE-INDIAINFOLINE
DETAILS OF PAST PERFORMANCE
Source-IndiaInfoline
Source-IndiaInfoline
Source-IndiaInfoline
Source-IndiaInfoline
NIFTY
Source-nseindia
TATASTEEL
HDFC 293 739*5+150=3845 12.1x
IDFC 70(lstd on 12-aug-05)
207+5.9 =212.9 2x
HDFCBANK 170 2076 11x
SBI 243 3250+121 12.8x
PNB 37(26-apr-02) 1311+68 =1379 36x
BOB 225(7-jun-20) 921+25=794 3.2x
AXISBANK 26(UTIBANK) 1554+36=1590 60x
ICICIBANK 75 1149+16=1165 14.5x
2000 2010 Gain%
WIPRO 2724 462*5+36=2346
(0.1x)
TCS 987(25aug-04) 952*4+156=3964
3x
INFOSYS 15625 3105*12+1356=38616
1.57x
MARUTI 442(9-jul-03) 1519+29-1548 2.5X
M&M 453 742*2+75=1559 2.45x
TATAMOTO 216 1143+76=1219 4.64x
DLF 569((5-jul-07) 391+8 (0.3x)
UNITECH 44 95*130+95=12445 281x
AVERAGE 16.84x
AVERAGE OUTPERFORMERS-(>11x-unitech)
20.7X
HDFC
TCS
ICICI
HDFCBANK
TATAMOTORS
MARUTI
Source-IndiaInfoline
Source-IndiaInfoline
Source-IndiaInfoline
Source-IndiaInfoline
Source-IndiaInfoline
Source-IndiaInfoline
Details of GROWTH POTENTIAL in INDIA—Recap of India’s NTD(Nxt Trilion $) Era
2
1
0.5
1.3
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
FY
90
FY
91
FY
92
FY
93
FY
94
FY
95
FY
96
FY
97
FY
98
FY
99
FY
00
FY
01
FY
02
FY
03
FY
04
FY
05
FY
06
FY
07
FY
08
FY
09
FY
10E
FY
11E
FY
12E
FY
13E
FY
14E
4% CAGR
16% CAGR
12% CAGR
2
1
0.5
1.3
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
FY
90
FY
91
FY
92
FY
93
FY
94
FY
95
FY
96
FY
97
FY
98
FY
99
FY
00
FY
01
FY
02
FY
03
FY
04
FY
05
FY
06
FY
07
FY
08
FY
09
FY
10E
FY
11E
FY
12E
FY
13E
FY
14E
4% CAGR
16% CAGR
12% CAGR
Geography tells us INDIA is only country in whole world comprising about 200 countries enriched with all resources, metals, minerals, spices, rivers, crude oil, etc. etc.All other countries have one or very few.We are also fortunate in having excellent human resources for both blue collar and white collar jobs. Also we had & have superb scientists for the needed R&D.
• 60 years for first US$ 1 trillion of GDP
• 6 years for NTD
RESILIENCE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE
Total Purchase in SEP only in equity by FII were 27+ CR
IIP fell due to global recession but again was inline
810
1215
18
21
3032
34 363938
FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09
India's GDS (Rs trillion) % to GDP
CAGR 20%
At 40% of GDP, India’s savings could hit US$1 TN in 7-8 years
Most preferred Least preferred
FII(ex- Adr/Gdr)
REALTY (DLF, UNITECH, HDIL)AUTO (TATAMOTORS, HEROHONDA,EXIDE),METALS (TATASTEEL, JSWSTEEL), BFSI (SBI, HDFC, IDFC, ICICI, LICHSG, BOB, REC), PHARMA(RANBXY, LUPIN,GLENMRK, DIVISLAB),POWER (NTPC, ADANI, JPWR,TATAPWR, ONGC), FMCG (ITC, HINDLEVER, UNITDSPIRITS, DABUR)
IT (TCS, OFSS, EDUCOMP), TELECOM (BHARTI, RCOM, IDEA, GTL,GTLINFRA), OIL (ONGC, IOC, CAIRN)
DII MEDIA (DBCORP), REALTY (DLF, UNITECH)
FMCG (HINDLEVER, GODREJCP), BFSI (ICICC,PNB, KOTAK, BOB), CEMENT), PHARMA (SUNPHARMA, CADILA, PIRAMAL)
BFI METAL (STERLITE, TATASTEEL, HINDZINC), POWER (JSWPOWER, TATAPOWER, RPOWER, POWERGRID), ENGG (BHEL, BEL, ENGINERSIND ), REALTY (HDIL, CENTURYTEX),
CEMENT (JAIPRAKASH, INDIACEM, MADRASCEM),
AUTO (HEROHONDA, BHARATFORGE),
FMCG (UNITEDSPIRITS, GODREJCP),
PHARMA (SUNPHARMA, CIPLA, DIVISLAB),
INFRA (HDIL, CENTURYTEX)
Since jan-09 FII has pumped ~49B in Indian Stock markets but till now it had not reached the level of ownership of FII that was reached in September-07(19%).
Of this ~47Bn,
69% has gone into paper issues(48%IPO/FPO
And 28% QIP),
The scenario for Indian Economy in general has undoubtedly improved to an extent, after political stability in country along with easing liquidity situation and the offshoots of recovery in global economy.
This is done in view to connect major clusters of India and to make freight corridor for ease of transportation of manufactured goods to the end-user
PORTS
Best cities to work
• Surat• Bangalore• Ahmedabad has created jobs after
this recession in tune with Bombay and Delhi
• In VADODARA, you can find people working from every part of India. This indicates the good picture of our cosmopolitan city.
• Chennai• Hyderabad• Mumbai• Pune• Delhi• Gurgaon• Noida• Chandigar
h
9 Emerging Cities of India
• Pune• Ahmedabad• Chandigarh • Goa• Indore
• Jaipur• Kochi• Nagpur• Vadodara
Best cities to work, play and live
1 Gurgaon 2 Chandigarh 3 Chennai 4 Hyderabad5 Mumbai6 Noida7 Bangalore8 Pune 9 Surat10 Ahmedabad
11 Vadodara 12 Coimbatore13 Delhi 14 Nashik 15 Faridabad16 Kolkata17 Nagpur18 Visakhapatnam19 Kochi20 Jamshedpur
##I am confident to handle your financial portfolio needs effectively as I have experience in diversifying it in various instruments as per risk/return appetite of an individual.
##Have experienced in getting good return investing in equities & believes that life insurance(TERM), + Medical, Accident & Household insurance is necessary for an individual
## I am safe trader & have good grip on taking new positions in counters which are looking technically sound & am periodically wounding up position to ensure that risk taken gets diminished.
##EQUITY MARKETS INVESTMENTS give LIQUIDITY like no other assets give
##Even Gold can be considered at par (or below) with it
AS whatever/whenever you sell(reasonable big quantity) legally, you get the amount in Cheque that can be reflected in your account ledger atleast after 12 hours. While stock market transactions can be made online where you can pay instantly and similarly redeem instantly through NET BANKING. .
##And since trading in scripts that are in Futures you can be assured of high liquidity and an impact cost of at-most 0.02%
So 1LAC invested for 10 yrs in Equity can be compounded to 478544 & 410840 is needed to have same purchasing power at end considering
17% CPI- CLEAR SURPLUS of 67704.Portfolio Advisory Service (PAS), as name suggests, is specialized advisory service for retail investors. Those availing service pay specific
fee for professional advice given by PORTFOLIO ADVISOR,
that’s ME (ZOHAR)……..
PAS PMSInvestor does not pay any amount to invest.
Investor has to pay money upfront.
Client invests in his own name The investments are done in portfolio manager’s firm.
Investor has total control on decisions as the advice is discretionary.
Investor has no control on decision-making as it is non-discretionary
Investor may accept or reject the advice of the advisor.
Investor may or may not consult the advisor.
Client can buy or sell securities as and when he decides.
The portfolio manager may churn the portfolio often to earn more brokerage.
Can select his own broker No such choice available. The burden of monitoring portfolio, on daily basis, is removed. As done by advisor(PAS). In PAS the advisor comes up with entry and exit levels by which you don’t miss upon any
opportunity to make money. The monitoring of your portfolio provides timely advice for appropriate rebalancing of the portfolio
in a volatile markets which optimizes returns.
The flip side If the investor does not implement the advice given by the advisor on time, the investor may stand
to lose (or gain) depending on the market situation. So, execution is the key and inaction (or unneeded action) on part of investor may work both ways.
ZOHAR BATTERYWALA9429927829 [email protected]