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Gender, Urban Space and Global Circulation
Deputy Minister of Human, Society and Cultural DevelopmentMinistry of National Development Planning/BAPPENAS
The 2nd International Conference on Strategic and Global Studies (ICSGS) Jakarta, 24th October 2018
REPUBLIK INDONESIA
Vision for The Future
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REPUBLIK INDONESIA
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Indonesia 2045
INDONESIA
2045Independent, Developed, Fair, and Prosperous Nation
Indonesian citizen who excel,cultured, and are advanced of
science and technology
Inclusive and equal development
Advanced and sustainable economy
Strong democratic country
REPUBLIK INDONESIA
Urbanization in Indonesia
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REPUBLIK INDONESIA
Indonesia’s Population Projection 2015-2045
2015 2045*
255.1 millionTotal Population
318.9 million
2.28Total Fertility Rate
2.1
70.8 years
Life Expectancy
75.5 years
49.2%Dependency Ratio
53.5%
65.76%Labor Participation
53,1% Urban Population 67,1%
Source: *Indonesia Population Projection Revision
2015-2045 (latest estimates)
• In 2045, Indonesia will experience a substantial population growth- an increase of 63.4 million or
24.7 percent. About 67.1 percent of population will live in urban areas.
• Numbers of working age population will continue to increase, but the share of younger groups
(aged 15-29) will decline. It is likely as the result of the extension of average years of schooling.
• The labor force is projected to grow over the next 30 years at an annual rate of 1.84 percent. By 2045, the labor force is projected to reach 206 million.
80%
Projection 2030 2045
Labor Force
(15+ years)
177.9
million
206.4
million
Labor Force
Participation
Rate77% 80%
Workers170.4
million
199.2
million15.000 10.000 5.000 0 5.000 10.000 15.000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
Thousand people
2045
Laki-laki Perempuan Bekerja Sedang Sekolah LainnyaOtherMale Female Working Schooling
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REPUBLIK INDONESIA
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Advanced Urbanization in Java
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2
SUMATERA51,697,225 PEOPLE39.1% URBAN / 60.9%RURAL
KALIMANTAN14,105,730 PEOPLE42.2% URBAN / 57.8% RURAL
3 JAVA138,311,286 PEOPLE58.6% URBAN / 41.1%RURAL
SULAWESI17,663,879 PEOPLE33.6% URBAN / 66.4%RURAL
BALI AND NUSATENGGARA13,327,280 PEOPLE39.2% URBAN / 60.8%RURAL
MALUKU AND PAPUA11,972,106 PEOPLE29.4% URBAN / 70.6% RURAL
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5
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Tier 1 –Metropolitan>1,000,000
Tier 2 – LargeCity500,000 – 1,000,000
Tier 3 –Medium City100,000 – 500,000
Tier 4 –Small City
REPUBLIK INDONESIA
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149 MIO1,103 PEOPLE/KM2
15,3 MIO 28,2 PEOPLE/KM2
55,2 MIO114,8 PEOPLE/KM2
18,7 MIO99,2 PEOPLE/KM2
6,9 MIO13,8 PEOPLE/KM29,9 MIO
147 PEOPLE/KM2
Uneven Population Distribution and Demographic Transition
Late transition
Below replacement rate TFR,
large share of older population,
window of opportunity has
passed
Early transition
Increasing share of children
and working population, older
people start to increase
Pre-transition
stagnant declining fertility,
later period of window
opportunity
Uncertainty to reach the
window of opportunity
High fertility, high mortality,
low access to education and
health,
Sources: 1. Adioetomo, Forthcoming IRSA Book Series on Regional Development No. 15, 2017; 2. Central Statistical Bureau, Supas 2015
REPUBLIK INDONESIA
Spreading Growth through Urban Development
= Main roads
= Rails
= National Activity Centers
= Regional Activity Centers
= Aerotropolis
= Port cities
Legend:
= PLTN
= Airports
= Palapa Ring Lane
= Dam
Mebidangro
Patungrayaagung
Jabodetabekjur
Bandung Basin
Kedungsepur
Gerbangkertosusilo
Sarbagita
Banjarbakula
Mamminasata
Manado-
Minahasa-Bitung
Ambon
Sorong
Jayapura
= KSN
= PKN
Mebidangro = Medan-Binjai-Deli Serdang-Karo
Patungrayaagung = Palembang-Betung-Indralaya-
Kayuagung
Jabodetabekjur = Jakarta-Bogor-Depok-Tangerang-Bekasi-
Cianjur
Kedungsepur = Kendal-Demak-Ungaran-Salatiga-Semarang-
Purwodadi
Gerbangkertosusilo = Gresik-Bangkalan-Mojokerto-
Surabaya-Sidoarjo-Lamongan
Sarbagita = Denpasar-Badung-Gianyar-Tabanan
Banjarbakula = Banjarmasin-Banjarbaru-Banjar-
Barito Kuala-Tanah Laut
Mamminasata = Makassar-Maros-Sungguminasa-
Takalar
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REPUBLIK INDONESIA
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Urban Agglomeration as an Engine of Economic Growth
0,67%
1,21%
2,18%
2,24%
3,08%
6,55%
16,20%
19,15%
Sarbagita
Mamminasata
Kedungsepur
Mebidangro
Bandung Raya
Gerbangkertosusilo
DKI Jakarta
Jabodetabek
Contribution of Metropolitan Areas to GDP in 2015
More than 90% of the richest
Indonesians reside in
Jabodetabek, controlling more
than 50% of financial wealth
All metropolitan areas have
contributed more than one
third of National GDP in
2015
Almost half of the urban
contribution to the National
GDP comes only from DKI
Jakarta
Source: Boston Consulting Group (2017)
REPUBLIK INDONESIA
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Urbanization Without Growth
Left-hand side: urbanization rate, percent; Right-hand side: GDP per capita in 2011 PPP
Source: World Urbanization Prospects 2018, World Bank staff calculations
Share of urban
population
GDP per
capita
0
4.000
8.000
12.000
16.000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0
4.000
8.000
12.000
16.000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0
4.000
8.000
12.000
16.000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
China East Asia & Pacific
(excluding high-
income, China and
Indonesia)
Indonesia
• For every one per cent increase in the share of urban population per capita income was growing by 3 per cent, 2.7 per cent per year on average for China and EAP countries, respectively. While for Indonesia, only 1.4 per cent per year.
• The better leveraged is urbanization, the more it will benefit national economic growth
• But if badly managed, there isa risk of “urbanization without growth”
REPUBLIK INDONESIA
Chronic Shortages in Access to Basic Infrastructure
Source: Bappenas dan Yayasan Pelangi
IDR 128T yearly loss because of traffic congestionannual growth of
rapid motorization9%public transport
share5-20%
air pollution costIDR 28T
72% access to improved water supply access
National pipeline water18%
67,5%Improved sanitation access
(including 7,4% safe access,
appr. 2% of sewerage and
appr. 5% of FSM*)
1%served by sewerage
systems
14 cities having substantial sewerage networks
11.4mioHousehold have no
house
11.6mioHouseholds live in homes
with physical buildings
unfit for habitation
10.8mioHouseholds who must
live to share the roof with
other families
20 champion cities/districts for FSM*
*FSM = Fecal Sludge Management
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Marginalized Groups: Women and Children
HEALTH ECONOMY AND SOCIAL
A slum residential area is vulnerable to violence against women and children
How women can be comfortable and safe to be involved in economic activities by using public transportation
The lack of clean water and sanitation facilities causes diarrhea, polio, pneumonia, and skin diseases for children, also reproductive health problems for young women
Unfriendly and unsecure urban transport for women, children and disability.
Reducing the space for women and children to be socially active in the community.
Delinquency of children, is caused by lack of public space to interact each other
REPUBLIK INDONESIA
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Demographic Dividend Preparation Must Be Immediate
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
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28
20
29
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30
20
31
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35
20
36
20
37
20
38
20
39
20
40
20
41
20
42
20
43
20
44
20
45
%
Dependency Ratio
TFR 2,1 TFR Trend
Population Projection 2010-2035
Population Projection 2015-2045 (TFR Trend)
Population Projection 2015-2045 (TFR Trend)
Peak Year 2022Dependency Ratio 45,44%End Year 2041
Peak Year 2021 Dependency Ratio 45,42%End Year 2037
Peak Year 2030 Dependency Ratio 46,9%End Year 2043
• From Supas 2015 population projections, preparations for getting demographic dividend are getting narrower.
• Based on projections by keeping TFR at the replacement rate level, demographic dividend period is expected to end in 2037.
• Dependency ratio for TFR 2.1 is relatively lower before the peak - proportion of productive age is higher.
• Increased labor productivity as one of the keys to extend demographic dividend.
REPUBLIK INDONESIA
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Economic Contribution and First Demographic Deviden
• In 2020-2024, the
contribution of
population structure will
be change towards
economic growth around
0,2-0,3 pp
• Through investment which
is being prepared to ageing
population, the total of
demographic deviden is 0,6
pp
• In 2020-2024, there wll be
60 effective workers to
provide 100 people
• Optimalizing
demographic bonus just
in 5 years from now0,55
0,56
0,57
0,58
0,59
0,6
0,61
-0,2
-0,1
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
% c
on
trib
uti
on
to
wa
rds
con
om
icg
row
th
Economic Support Ratio and First Demographic Deviden
Demographic Dividend TFRTrend
Demographic Dividend TFR2,1
Support Ratio TFRTrend
Support Ratio TFR2,1
First
Demographic
Bonus
EconomicSupport
Ratio
Jum
lah p
ekerja e
fektif dib
andin
gkan
penduduk
REPUBLIK INDONESIA
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Demographic Dividend Shifting
No Province PeakYear DependentNumber EndYear
2010-2035 2015-2045
(Trend/TFR 2,1)
2010-2035 2015-2045
(Trend/TFR 2,1)
2015-2045
(Trend/TFR 2,1)
1 JawaTengah 2021 2022/2021 50,98 46,04/46,02 2035/2033
2 JawaBarat 2023 2025/2023 47,73 44,06/44,12 2044/2039
3 Banten 2022 2023/2022 47,14 43,59/43,597 2043/2040
4 Bangka Belitung 2020 2021/2021 47,59 44,45/44,41 2044/2040
5 Bengkulu 2020 2020/2020 47,36 44,61/44,56 2046/2041
6 Jambi 2020 2020/2020 48,41 45,06/45,02 2043/2038
7 Kalimantan Timur 2019 2019/2019 47,20 41,17/41,13 2043/2039
8 Kalimantan Selatan 2015 2015/2015 50,83 47,35/47,35 2036/2033
9 Kalimantan Tengah 2021 2021/2021 46,21 41,85/41,8 2045/2041
10 Gorontalo 2022 2023/2022 47,32 44,07/44,05 2044/2040
11 Kepulauan Riau 2025 2026/2025 43,42 41,31/40,91 --
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Demographic Dividend: Need to Work Hard
Demographic dividend is only
nominal calculation. We need to
follow-up with strategic policies
to optimize the results.
Result:
✓ High productivity increases workers' wages.
✓ Workers' wages increase consumption and
investment.
✓ Consumption and investment will drive
economic growth.
Key:
✓ Increase worker productivity.
✓ Through increasing human capital.
✓ Provide employment opportunities.
Saving and Investment
Adaptive and competitive
workforce
Good health before
entering productive
age
Active Ageing
+
%
REPUBLIK INDONESIA
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Policies
Demand Supply
• The working-age population in urban or “urbanized” rural areas face the
same situation: Competing for non-
specialized jobs. People with low
education or unskilled will not be
able to compete.
• Therefore, development of new growth centers in regions/areas far
from cities is needed to reduce the
burden of urbanization in urban
areas.
• Creating more jobs and better opportunities in rural areas.
• Skills training to produce adaptive and resilient workforce to technological change.
• Certification of workers.• Development of sound labor market
information system to facilitate interaction of
supply and demand.
• Expansion of social security coverage for workers including for women and men in
formal and informal sectors.
• Wage policy that can increase real wages for both formal and informal workers and also
can reduce wage gap between women and
men.
• Provide special training for youth, including women and disability that can leverage their
capacity.
REPUBLIK INDONESIA
Sustainable Urban Planning and Development
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REPUBLIK INDONESIA
SDGs:Universal;
Integration; No One Left Behind
NUA: Equality – Leave No One Behind: Sustainable and
Inclusive; Environmental Sustainability
Integrating SDGs and NUA in Indonesia
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REPUBLIK INDONESIA
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National Urban Policy
Integrated
Planning,
Budgeting
and
Financing
Outcomes
Prosperity LivabilityInclusiveness
Regulation: NSPK*, integrated planning
Institutional: management, law enforcement
Financing: planning-budgeting-financing integration
Implementation
Framework
*norms, standards, procedures, criteria
Application of Principles
Smart City for efficient implementation of development and
increased accountability of local government
Government
Regulation on
Urban
Management
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Vision for National Urban
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Livable, Inclusive and cultural Universal access includingwomen, children, elderly,and people with disabilityto basic services
Competitive citiesProductivity and prosperity in sustainability principles including women and disability to be involve in economic activities.
Green and resilient citiesVulnerability to disaster is addressed properly;secure and comfortable mass public transport system
National urban system for prosper and just citiesprioritize urban development and more balanced urban system
REPUBLIK INDONESIA
THANK YOU
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