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DTM - providing Ethiopia with a common & evidence-based narrative on displacement

Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM)

Gedeo - Guji

Return Analysis Report I

August 2018

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INTRODUCTION

A total of 958,175 individuals were identified as having been displaced due the Gedeo-Guji conflict. In

Gedeo 276,939 individuals were identified as residing in Collective Sites and 514,444 individuals in Host

Communities*. In total 791,383 individuals were identified as having been displaced across Gedeo Zone.

In Guji DTM identified 82,174 individuals hosted in Collective Sites and 84,618 individuals in Host

Communities. In total 166,792 individuals are identified as being hosted across Guji.

This report presents an analysis on potential return patterns for the total number of IDPs identified as

residing in Collective Sites. To date 359,113 individuals have been identified as having been displaced to

Collective Sites across 11 Woreda. The largest number of IDPs were displaced to Gedeb, Dilla Town,

Kochere (Gedeo) and Kerca (Guji). In total Gedeo was reported as hosting 276,939 individuals and Guji

82,174 individuals.

DTM’s Return Analysis Report aims to provide an insight into the potential return patterns of those

displaced. The analysis for the report is developed through the data collected in July’s multi-sectoral Rapid

Response Assessments (RRA). DTM has recently finished a new round RRA data collection covering the

periods of 11-18th August. DTM’s Round II RRA and Round II Return Analysis Report are scheduled for

publication (pending endorsement) for the first week of September 2018. Simultaneously DTM has

launched third Round of RRA data collection starting from the 27th of August until 7th September. In light

of the dynamic mobile patterns being observed in the Gedeo and Guji, DTM has enhanced its RRA tools to

include a greater number of indicators on return patterns with the aim of enriching future publications of

the Return Analysis Report.

*Collective sites: A place where displaced populations of more than 5 households have sought refuge. This can include non-functional buildings and open spaces areas where IDPs are hosted in makeshift shelters or tents. Host communities: Host Communities are where more than 5 IDP households are temporarily living with family, relatives or friends.

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AREAS OF ORIGIN & AREAS OF DISPLACEMENT

The largest number of IDPs displaced across both Zones originate from Kerca (241,894 individuals). For Guji this is followed by Galana (16,789 individuals), Hambela Wamena (13,579 individuals) and Dimtu Hambala (12,768 individulas). For Gedeo, the largest number of IDPs originate from Kochere (17,275 individuals), followed by Yirgachefe (9,003 individuals), Bule (2,243 individuals) and finally Gedeb (2,013 individuals). Although there are IDPs hosted in Dilla Town and Dila Zuria there are no IDPs reported as originating from these Woreda.

LARGEST DISPLACEMENT

241,894 Inds

The largest number of IDPs displaced across both Zones originate from Kerca (241,894 individuals).

Kerca is also the Woreda that hosts the largest number of IDPs currently in Guji Zone. The largest

number of IDPs Gedeo are hosted in Gedeb, Dilla Town and Kochere.

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WILLINGNESS TO RETURN

In both Zones the majority of IDPs reported to be willing to return to their areas of origin with up to 94.4%

in West Guji reporting so and 78.4% in Gedeo.

Map: 1 Where IDPs are from and where IDPs are currently displaced

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DISPLACEMENT WITHIN & OUTSIDE WOREDA OF ORIGIN

In all Woredas except Kerca and Hambela Wamena the majority of the displaced population were

displaced outside of their Woreda of origin. The Woredas of Kerca, Hambela Wamene and Galana are the

areas where there the most displaced still residing in the Woreda of origin.

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IDPS TO RETURN FROM OUTSIDE WOREDA OF ORIGIN

In total 275,527 individuals are reported as being displaced outside their Woreda of origin. The greatest

number of IDPs displaced outside their Woreda of origin are located in Gedeo Zone, specifically in the

Woredas of Gedeb (129,629 inds), followed by Kochere (52,669 inds), Dila Town (54,146 inds), Yirgachefe

(30,553 inds), Bule (7,705 inds) and Dila Zuria (825 inds).

Map 2: Heat map of the location where IDPs who are displaced outside Woreda of origin are currently located

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NUMBER OF IDPS DISPLACED WITHIN WOREDA OF ORIGIN

The largest number of IDPs displaced within their Woreda of origin are from Kerca (27,958 inds), followed

by Hambela Wamena (13,579 inds). Both of these Woreda are located in Guji Zone. the remaining number

of individuals displaced within Guji’s Woreda amount to 3,607 individuals. In Gedeo Zone the majority of

those displaced within their Woreda of origin are located in Kochere followed by Yigachefe.

Map 3: Heat map of the locations where IDPs who are displaced within their Woreda of origin are currently located

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ANALYSES OF RETURNS FROM GUJI TO GEDEO

Out all the IDPs displaced in Abaya (6,795 inds), 6,220 individuals are expected to return to Yirgachefe and

575 to Kebeles within the Woreda. For IDPs displaced in Kerca (50,422 inds), 14,556 are expected to return

to Kochere, 7,908 are expected to return to Birbirsa Kojowa and the largest group (27,958 inds) are

expected to return to Kebeles within Kerca. For IDPs displaced in Bule Hora (4,519 inds), 2,243 are

expected to return to Bule, 1,870 to Kebeles within Bule Hora and 406 to Gedeb. IDPs in Gelena (6,649

inds) are are expected to return to Yigachefe (2,475), Kochere (1,615), Gedeb (1,397) and to Kebeles

within Gelena (1,162). IDPs located in Hambela Wamena (13,789 inds) are expected to return primarily to

Kebeles within the Woreda (13,579) and to Gedeb (210).

Map 4: Potential return patterns from Guji to Gedeo

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ANALYSES OF RETURNS FROM GEDEO TO GUJI

Out of the 7,705 IDPs displaced to Bule the majority are expected to return to Hambela Wamena (4,225

inds), Kerca (1,946 inds), Uraga (1,154 inds) and Bule Hora (380 inds). Out of the 30,861 IDPs in Yigachefe

11,937 are expected to return to Kerca, 9,055 Abaya, 8,603 to Bule Hora Town, 596 to Bore, 362 to Gelena

and lastly 308 to Kebeles within Yigachefe Woreda. From the 53,773 IDPs identified in Kochere the largest

group (25,362 inds) are expected to return to Kerca, followed by 15,265 to Gelena, 7,181 to Bore, 2,601 to

Bule Hora Town, 2,260 to Bule Hora and the last 1,104 to Kebeles within the Woreda. In Gedeb, where the

largest number of IDPs are located (129,629 inds) the majority (119,720) are expected to return to Kerca,

followed by Hambela Wamena (8,543) and Birbirsa Kojowa (1,366). All the IDPs in Dilla Towan (54,146

inds) are expected to return to Kerca and all IDPs in Dilla Zuria (825 inds) are expected to Kerca.

Map 5: Potential return patterns from Gedeo to Guji

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