GDPE0778ICR- Indonesia Power Market Outlook Sample 1,2,4 … · Indonesia Power Market Outlook to 2025, Update 2015 – Market Trends, Regulations, and Competitive Landscape 21 INDONESIA

REFERENCE CODE GDPE0778ICR | PUBLICATION DATE MAY 2015

INDONESIA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS,

AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

Indonesia Power Market Outlook to 2025, Update 2015 – Market Trends, Regulations, and Competitive Landscape 2 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.

INDONESIA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

Executive Summary

Indonesia’s Power Sector Outlook

Indonesia is the world’s fourth-most populous

country and 16th largest economy as of 2014. With

the exception of 2009, economic growth has been

consistent, growing at an average of XX% annually

since 2000. Along with population growth, this has

led to a steep increase in power consumption.

Between 2000 and 2014, this increased at a

Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of XX%

from XX Terawatt hours (TWh) to XX TWh.

Power Market, Indonesia, Gross Domestic Product ($bn) and Annual Power Consumption (TWh), 2000–2014

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Ann

ual p

ower

con

sum

ptio

n (T

Wh)

GD

P ($

bn)

GDP (constant prices) Annual power consumption Source: GlobalData, IMF, 2014 GDP: Gross Domestic Product

Annual electricity consumption continued to

increase, owing to rising demand from the

industrial, residential and commercial sectors.

Annual power generation also increased between

2000 and 2014, from XX TWh to XX TWh, at a

CAGR of XX%. Most of the additional power

generated came from coal and gas.

Power Market, Indonesia, Annual Power Consumption and Generation (TWh), 2000–2014

2000 2007 2014

Ann

ual p

ower

con

sum

ptio

n an

d ge

nera

tion

(TW

h)

Annual power consumption Annual power generation

Source: GlobalData, Power Database [Accessed on June 27, 2014]

Coal-based thermal capacity dominated the

Indonesian power mix in 2014, with a share of

XX% of the total installed capacity. This was

followed by gas-based thermal capacity, with XX%.

Indonesia is a leading country in terms of coal and

natural gas reserves, hence the dominance of

fossil fuels. Significant contributions were also

made by oil-based thermal capacity, with a share

of XX%, and hydropower, with XX%. Geothermal

power is the leading renewable source of energy in

the country and contributed to XX% of the installed

capacity. Other renewable sources, which include

onshore wind, solar Photovoltaic (PV), biomass

and biogas together accounted for XX%.


Table of Contents


1 Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents ....................................................................................................................... 4

1.1 List of Tables ...................................................................................................................... 7

1.2 List of Figures ..................................................................................................................... 8

2 Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 9

2.1 GlobalData Report Guidance ............................................................................................ 10

3 Indonesia, Power Market, Snapshot ......................................................................................... 11

3.1 Indonesia, Power Market, Macro-economic Factors .......................................................... 11

3.2 Indonesia, Power Market, Supply Security ........................................................................ 13

3.3 Indonesia, Power Market, Opportunities............................................................................ 15

3.4 Indonesia, Power Market, Challenges ............................................................................... 16

4 Indonesia, Power Market, Market Analysis ............................................................................... 17

4.1 Indonesia, Power Market, Supply Structure ...................................................................... 17

4.2 Indonesia, Power Market, Key Market Players .................................................................. 17

4.3 Indonesia, Power Market, Financial Deals ........................................................................ 17

4.3.1 Deal Volume and Value Analysis, 2004–March 2015 .................................................... 17

4.3.2 Deals by Type, 2014 ..................................................................................................... 19

4.4 Indonesia, Power Market, Demand Structure .................................................................... 19

4.4.1 Power Consumption by Sector, 2014 ............................................................................ 21

5 Indonesia, Power Market, Regulatory Scenario ........................................................................ 22

5.1 Indonesia, Power Market, Key Electricity Policies ............................................................. 22

5.1.1 The Electricity Law ........................................................................................................ 22

5.1.2 The Energy Law No. 30/2009 ........................................................................................ 23

5.1.3 Regulation for Permitting Electricity Export and Import by PLN ..................................... 23

5.2 Indonesia, Power Market, Renewable Energy Development ............................................. 24

5.3 Indonesia, Power Market, National Coal Policy ................................................................. 24

5.4 Indonesia, Power Market, Nuclear Development Scenario ................................................ 25


Table of Contents


6 Indonesia, Power Market, Capacity and Generation Overview .................................................. 26

6.1 Indonesia, Power Market, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Fuel Type, 2014 ................... 26

6.2 Indonesia, Power Market, Cumulative Installed Capacity and Annual Power Generation, 2000–2025 ........................................................................................................................ 27

6.2.1 Cumulative Installed Thermal Power Capacity and Annual Thermal Power Generation, 2000–2025 ................................................................................................................... 30

6.2.2 Cumulative Installed Hydropower Capacity and Annual Hydropower Generation, 2000–2025 ............................................................................................................................. 34

6.2.3 Cumulative Installed Renewable Power Capacity and Annual Renewable Power Generation, 2000–2025 ................................................................................................ 38

7 Indonesia, Power Market, Transmission and Distribution Overview .......................................... 42

7.1 Indonesia, Power Market, Transmission Overview ............................................................ 42

7.2 Indonesia, Power Market, Distribution Overview ............................................................... 43

7.3 Indonesia, Power Market, Grid Interconnection ................................................................. 44

8 Indonesia, Power Market, Competitive Landscape: Snapshot of Leading Power-generating Companies ............................................................................................................................... 46

8.1 Key Company in the Indonesia Power Generation Market, PLN ....................................... 46

8.1.1 PLN, Company Overview .............................................................................................. 46

8.1.2 PLN, Business Description ............................................................................................ 46

8.1.3 PLN, SWOT Analysis .................................................................................................... 48

8.1.4 PLN Strengths ............................................................................................................... 48

8.1.5 PLN Weaknesses .......................................................................................................... 49

8.1.6 PLN Opportunities ......................................................................................................... 50

8.1.7 PLN Threats .................................................................................................................. 51

9 Appendix................................................................................................................................... 52

9.1 Market Definitions ............................................................................................................. 52

9.1.1 Power ............................................................................................................................ 52

9.1.2 Installed Capacity .......................................................................................................... 52

9.1.3 Electricity Generation .................................................................................................... 52


Table of Contents


9.1.4 Electricity Consumption ................................................................................................. 52

9.1.5 Coal-Fired Power Plant ................................................................................................. 52

9.1.6 Hydropower Plant .......................................................................................................... 52

9.1.7 Nuclear Power............................................................................................................... 52

9.1.8 Renewable Energy Resources ...................................................................................... 53

9.2 Abbreviations .................................................................................................................... 53

9.3 Bibliography ...................................................................................................................... 54

9.4 GlobalData’s Methodology ................................................................................................ 55

9.4.1 Coverage ...................................................................................................................... 55

9.4.2 Secondary Research and Analysis ................................................................................ 55

9.4.3 Primary Research and Analysis..................................................................................... 56

9.5 Disclaimer ......................................................................................................................... 57


Table of Contents


1.1 List of Tables

Table 1: Power Market, Indonesia, Gross Domestic Product ($bn), Population (million), and Annual Power

Consumption (TWh), 2000–2019 ................................................................................................. 13

Table 2: Power Market, Indonesia, Reserve Capacity in Various Regional Grids (GW ), 2014 ................... 15

Table 3: Power Market, Indonesia, Deal Value ($bn) and Number of Deals, 2004–March 2015 ................. 18

Table 4: Power Market, Indonesia, Annual Power Consumption (TWh), 2000–2025 .................................. 20

Table 5: Power Market, Indonesia, Power Consumption by Sector (%), 2014 ............................................ 21

Table 6: Power Market, Indonesia, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Fuel Type (%), 2014 ........................ 26

Table 7: Power Market, Indonesia, Cumulative Installed Capacity (GW) and Annual Power Generation

(TWh), 2000–2025 ...................................................................................................................... 29

Table 8: Power Market, Indonesia, Leading Thermal Power Plants, 2015 .................................................. 31

Table 9: Power Market, Indonesia, Cumulative Installed Thermal Power Capacity (GW) and Annual

Thermal Power Generation (TWh), 2000–2025 ............................................................................ 33

Table 10: Power Market, Indonesia, Leading Hydropower Plants, 2015 ....................................................... 35

Table 11: Power Market, Indonesia, Cumulative Installed Hydropower Capacity (GW) and Annual

Hydropower Generation (TWh), 2000–2025................................................................................. 37

Table 12: Power Market, Indonesia, Leading Renewable Power Plants, 2015 ............................................. 39

Table 13: Power Market, Indonesia, Cumulative Installed Renewable Power Capacity (GW) and Annual

Renewable Power Generation (TWh), 2000–2025 ....................................................................... 41

Table 14: Power Market, Indonesia, Transmission Line Length (Ckm), 2000–2020 ..................................... 43

Table 15: Power Market, Indonesia, Distribution Line Network (Ckm), 2000–2020 ....................................... 44

Table 16: Power Market, Indonesia, PLN, SWOT Analysis, 2015 ................................................................ 48

Table 17: Abbreviations .............................................................................................................................. 53


Table of Contents


1.2 List of Figures

Figure 1: Power Market, Indonesia, Gross Domestic Product ($bn), Population (million), and Annual Power

Consumption (TWh), 2000–2019 ................................................................................................. 12

Figure 2: Power Market, Indonesia, Deal Value ($bn) and Number of Deals, 2004–March 2015 ................. 18

Figure 3: Power Market, Indonesia, Annual Power Consumption (TWh), 2000–2025 .................................. 19

Figure 4: Power Market, Indonesia, Power Consumption by Sector (%), 2014 ............................................ 21

Figure 5: Power Market, Indonesia, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Fuel Type (%), 2014 ........................ 26

Figure 6: Power Market, Indonesia, Cumulative Installed Capacity (GW) and Annual Power Generation

(TWh), 2000–2025 ...................................................................................................................... 28

Figure 7: Power Market, Indonesia, Cumulative Installed Thermal Power Capacity (GW) and Annual

Thermal Power Generation (TWh), 2000–2025 ............................................................................ 32

Figure 8: Power Market, Indonesia, Cumulative Installed Hydropower Capacity (GW) and Annual

Hydropower Generation (TWh), 2000–2025................................................................................. 36

Figure 9: Power Market, Indonesia, Cumulative Installed Renewable Power Capacity (GW) and Annual

Renewable Power Generation (TWh), 2000–2025 ....................................................................... 40



Introduction

2 Introduction

Indonesia is the largest economy in Southeast Asia. It is the fourth-most populous country in the

world, and has the 16th largest economy (Knoema, 2015). Post-independence, it has seen

tremendous economic development, partly as a result of government changes to the regulatory

framework, which have increased investment from both the foreign and domestic private sector.

Despite this, Indonesia struggles with poverty, unemployment, corruption, poor infrastructure, a

complex regulatory environment and unequal regional resource distribution.

With an estimated Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (at constant prices) of $XX billion in 2014,

Indonesia registered growth of XX% in the same year (IMF, 2014). The industry sector was

estimated to account for XX% of Indonesia’s GDP in 2014, followed by the service sector (XX%)

and the agriculture sector (XX%) (CIA, 2014). Indonesia has substantial natural resources,

including crude oil, natural gas, tin, copper and gold. It is a major importer of chemicals, fuels, food

items, machinery, equipment, and crude oil, and exports gas, coal, electrical appliances, rubber,

textiles and plywood. Its major trading partners are China, Japan, Singapore and the US. Since

1998, Indonesia’s oil production has declined, owing to its largest oil fields reaching maturity and its

inability to develop new comparable resources. Despite being a net importer of crude oil, since

2004 it has been the world’s sixth-largest net exporter of natural gas and second-largest net

exporter of coal.

The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (Kementerian Energi dan Sumber daya Mineral,

MEMR) is the chief regulator of the electricity sector and is responsible for the legislation,

implementation, co-ordination, enforcement and compliance of the electricity sector. Perusahaan

Listrik Negara (PLN), a state-owned utility, is the dominant company in the power sector. It owns

86% of Indonesia's power-generating capacity through its subsidiaries, and maintains a monopoly

over Transmission and Distribution (T&D) activities. The remaining XX% is owned by the private

sector through Independent Power Producers (IPP). This contribution of IPPs is likely to increase,

as new private power projects are expected to come online in the next few years. The electrification

ratio in Indonesia is currently XX%, and is expected to increase due to increasing private

investments in electricity infrastructure.



Introduction

2.1 GlobalData Report Guidance

The executive summary captures the key growth trends in the power market.

Chapter three provides a snapshot of the key parameters that impact the power sector, as well

as key points about the power market.

Chapter four provides an analysis of the power market.

Chapter five details the regulatory control of the power market and the inward foreign

investment scenario.

Chapter six provides information on the cumulative installed capacity and annual generation

trends, by individual generation source.

Chapter seven describes the power T&D infrastructure and provides information on

interconnectors with neighboring countries. The section also covers electricity imports and

exports and upcoming grid-related projects.

Note: All 2014 market numbers provided in the report are estimates, except where actual data were

available.



Market Analysis

4.4.1 Power Consumption by Sector, 2014

The residential sector was the single largest consumer of power in 2014, accounting for an

estimated XX% of consumption. The industrial, commercial, and transport sectors contributed an

estimated XX%, XX%, and XX% respectively, while other smaller sectors cumulatively contributed

the remaining XX%.

Figure 4: Power Market, Indonesia, Power Consumption by Sector (%), 2014

Residential

Industrial

Trade, commerce, and other services

TransportOther

Source: GlobalData

Table 5: Power Market, Indonesia, Power Consumption by Sector (%), 2014 Sector Consumption

Residential

Industrial

Trade, commerce, and other services

Transport

Other

Source: GlobalData



Capacity and Generation Overview

6.2 Indonesia, Power Market, Cumulative Installed Capacity and Annual Power Generation, 2000–2025

Cumulative installed capacity increased from XX GW in 2000 to XX GW in 2013 at a CAGR of

XX%, due to the growth of thermal, hydropower and renewable power between 2000 and 2014.

Thermal fuel sources (coal, oil and gas) made the biggest contribution, with a combined share of

XX%, or XX GW, of the total installed capacity.

Installed capacity will reach XX GW in 2025. Thermal fuel sources will remain the highest

contributors during the forecast period, and will contribute XX GW in 2025, although their share is

expected to fall to XX% by 2025 due to higher contributions from renewable and hydropower

plants. From 2015 to 2025, renewable power sources are expected to grow at a CAGR of XX%,

and hydropower plants are expected to grow at a CAGR of XX%.

Total electricity generation in 2014 was estimated at XX TWh, of which thermal power generation

accounted for XX%, and hydropower and renewable power generation accounted for XX% and

XX% respectively. Between 2015 and 2025, Indonesia’s total electricity generation is expected to

increase at a CAGR of XX%, to XX TWh by 2025.




Figure 6: Power Market, Indonesia, Cumulative Installed Capacity (GW) and Annual Power Generation (TWh), 2000–2025

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Annu

al p

ower

gen

erat

ion

(TW

h)

Cum

ulat

ive

inst

alle

d ca

paci

ty (G

W)

Cumulative installed capacity Annual power generation Source: GlobalData, Power Database [Accessed on April 17, 2015]




Table 7: Power Market, Indonesia, Cumulative Installed Capacity (GW) and Annual Power Generation (TWh), 2000–2025

Year Cumulative installed capacity Annual power generation

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Source: GlobalData, Power Database [Accessed on April 17, 2015]


Appendix


9 Appendix

9.1 Market Definitions

9.1.1 Power

Power refers to the rate of production, transfer or energy use, usually related to electricity. It is

measured in Watts (W) and often expressed in kilowatts (kW) or Megawatts (MW). It is also known

as real power or active power.

9.1.2 Installed Capacity

Installed capacity refers to the generator’s nameplate capacity as stated by the manufacturer, or

the maximum rated output of a generator under given conditions. It is given in Megawatts (MW) on

a nameplate affixed to the generator.

9.1.3 Electricity Generation

Electricity generation refers to the process of generating electricity from other forms of energy. It

also refers to the amount of electricity produced, expressed in Gigawatt hours (GWh).

9.1.4 Electricity Consumption

Electricity consumption is the sum of electricity generated, plus imports, minus exports and

transmission and distribution losses. It is measured in Gigawatt hours (GWh).

9.1.5 Coal-Fired Power Plant

A coal-fired power plant produced electricity from the combustion of coal.

9.1.6 Hydropower Plant

A hydropower plant is a plant in which the turbine generators are driven by falling or flowing water.

9.1.7 Nuclear Power

Nuclear power is the energy released from the fission of nuclear fuel in a reactor.


Appendix


9.1.8 Renewable Energy Resources

Renewable energy resources are those that provide energy that is naturally replenished but limited

in the amount of energy available per unit of time. Biomass, geothermal, solar, small hydro and

wind are examples of renewable resources.

9.2 Abbreviations

Table 17: Abbreviations BATAN National Atomic Energy Agency (Badan Tenaga Atom Nasional)

CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate

CCGT Combined-Cycle Gas Turbine

Ckm Circuit kilometer

FTP Fast Track Project

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GHG Greenhouse Gas

GW Gigawatt

IEA International Energy Agency

IPP Independent Power Producer

kV kilovolt

MEMR Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (Kementerian Energi dan Sumber daya Mineral)

mmbd million barrels per day

Mtoe Million tons of oil equivalent

MW Megawatt

NCP National Coal Policy

PLN Perusahaan Listrik Negara

PPA Power Purchase Agreement

PV Photovoltaic

RUKN National Electricity Generation (Rencana Umum Ketenagalistrikan Nasional)

T&D Transmission and Distribution

TWh Terawatt hours

Source: GlobalData


Appendix


9.3 Bibliography

BP (2014). BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2014. BP. Available from:

http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/excel/Energy-Economics/statistical-review-2014/BP-

Statistical_Review_of_world_energy_2014_workbook.xlsx [Accessed on: April 20, 2015].

Cahyafitri R (2014). RI needs Rp 200t a year to meet rising power demand. Jakarta Post.

Available from: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2014/10/02/ri-needs-rp-200t-a-year-meet-

rising-power-demand.html [Accessed on: April 20, 2015].

CIA (2014). Indonesia: the World Factbook. Central Intelligence Agency. Available from:

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/resources/the-world-factbook/geos/id.html [Accessed

on April 20, 2015].

GBG Indonesia (2013). Indonesia’s Electricity and Power Generation Sector. Global Business

Guide Indonesia. Available from:

http://www.gbgindonesia.com/en/energy/article/2012/indonesia_s_electricity_and_power_gene

ration_sector.php [Accessed on April 20, 2015].

HRW (2012). PLN report shows hydro growth potential in Indonesia. Hydro Review Worldwide.

Available from: http://www.hydroworld.com/articles/print/volume-20/issue-2/departments/hrw-

briefings.html [Accessed on April 20, 2015].

IEA (2014). Energy Supply Security: Emergency Response of Partner Countries, 2014,

Indonesia. International Energy Agency. Available from:

https://www.iea.org/media/protected/seq/ESSofIndonesia2014final.pdf.

IMF (2014). World Economic Outlook Database, April 2013. International Monetary Fund.

Available at: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2014/01/weodata/index.aspx [Accessed

on April 17, 2015].

Indonesia-Investments (2014). Coal in Indonesia, Indonesia's Coal Production and Export.

Indonesia-Investments. Available from: http://www.indonesia-investments.com/doing-

business/commodities/coal/item236 [Accessed on April 20, 2015].

Knoema (2015). World GDP Ranking 2015: Data and Charts. Knoema. Available from:

http://knoema.com/nwnfkne/world-gdp-ranking-2015-data-and-charts [Accessed on: April 20,

2015].


Appendix


9.4 GlobalData’s Methodology

GlobalData’s dedicated research and analysis teams consist of experienced professionals with

advanced statistical expertise and marketing, market research and consulting backgrounds in the

energy industry.

GlobalData adheres to the codes of practice of the Market Research Society (www.mrs.org.uk) and

Strategic and Competitive Intelligence Professionals (www.scip.org).

All of GlobalData’s databases are continuously updated and revised. The following methodology

has been followed for the collection and analysis of data presented in this report.

9.4.1 Coverage

This report covers Indonesia’s power market, examining the market structure and providing

historical generation, capacity and consumption forecasts until 2025. It also looks at the market’s

regulatory structure, import and export trends, competitive landscape and leading active and

upcoming power projects.

9.4.2 Secondary Research and Analysis

The capacity, generation and consumption data is collected and validated using a number of

secondary resources including but not limited to:

Government agencies, ministry websites, industry associations, the World Bank, IMF, and

statistical databases

Company websites, annual reports, financial reports, analyst reports and investor

presentations

Industry trade journals, market reports and other literature

GlobalData’s proprietary databases such as the Capacity and Generation Database, Power

Plant Database and Transmission and Distribution Database

Further to this, the following secondary information is collected and analyzed to project Indonesia’s

power market scenario to 2025, analyzing factors such as:

Macro-economic scenario

Government regulations, policies and targets


Appendix


Government and private sector investment

Contract and deal announcements

Utility expansion plans

The sector’s historical track record

Other qualitative insights built through secondary research and analysis of company websites,

annual reports, investor presentations, industry and trade journals, and data from industry

associations

9.4.3 Primary Research and Analysis

Secondary research is further complemented through primary interviews with industry participants

to verify the market numbers obtained through secondary research and obtain first-hand

information on industry trends.

The participants are drawn from a diverse set of backgrounds, including power producers,

equipment manufacturers, industry associations, government bodies, utilities, distributors, and

academia. The participants include but are not limited to C-level executives, industry consultants,

academic experts, business development and sales managers, purchasing managers, plant

managers, government officials and industry spokespersons.


Appendix


9.5 Disclaimer

All Rights Reserved.

No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any

form by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior

permission of the publisher, GlobalData.

This report is a licensed product and should not to be reproduced without prior permission.

Documents

GDPE0778ICR- Indonesia Power Market Outlook Sample 1,2,4 … · Indonesia Power Market Outlook to 2025, Update 2015 – Market Trends, Regulations, and Competitive Landscape 21 INDONESIA