GCTE Keynote Address

LINKS BETWEEN SCIENCE AND POLICY MAKING

by

Jeffrey B. Tschirley and David Norse

Food and Forestry:Global change and global challenges

Requirements for policy relevant science:

Definition of the chain (filiere) of linkages

Matrix analysis to target key policy areas and opportunities

Early and direct links (collaborative partnerships) with policy research, analysis and formulation specialists

ANTHROPOGENIC DRIVERS

ECOSYSTEM CHANGES

RESOURCE & PRODUCT AVAILABILITY

Land Use/Land Cover

ChangeClimate Change

EcosystemFunction

EcosystemStructure

Wood & Fibre Food Water AirGenes, Species,

Habitats

Resource Supply Constraints

Land Degradation& Desertification

Pollution & Competitionin Shared Waterbasins

Costal Zone Pollution

Trans Boundary Air Pollution

Loss of Biodiversity

AtmosphericComposition

Change

GTOS Conceptual framework

GLOBAL CHANGE & SUSTAINABILITY ISSUES

GTOS planning group expert 1996

Data and information pyramid

Global policy

formulation

National policy

planning

Research and modelling

Operational decision makers

Scientific researchers

INFORMATION

DATA

Data volume

decreases

Subjectivity increases

GT.Net - A global system of terrestrial observation network

COASTAL

* ECOLOGY

BIODIVERSITY

* GLACIERS

* PERMAFROST

* HYDROLOGY

* ESTABISHEDOR IN PROGRESS

*C.E

.EU

R

*S.E

.AF

RIC

A

S.A

SIA

N.A

ME

RIC

A

REGIONAL NETWORKS

TH

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ET

WO

RK

Global demonstration projects•Net primary productivity •Terrestrial carbon initiative •Biodiversity richness study•Soil decomposition / biodiversity

1. Large-area experiments2. Long-term research centres3. Field stations4. Periodic, unstaffed sample sites5. Frequent low resolution remote sensing

The global observation hierarchy

•Where science fits in a policy context

•Components of policy analysis implementation

•Principles for policy relevant science

•Closer alignment with the policy formulation processes

Widening the arguments for research and policy links:

Science in a policy context

Addressing questions such as:

- In what timeframe and spatial scale will global changes occur? Short or long-term?

- Will it be global or regional in terms of physical and socio-economic impacts?

- What are the levels of uncertainty regarding the time scale or geographic impact?

Factors inhibiting the use of science in policy formulation:

•Those primarily responsible for causing global change may not suffer most from its impacts

•Misconceptions about the nature of natural resource management (NRM) problems.

•Tendency to accept public information about environmental risks at face value.

Components of policy analysis and implementation:

problem identification;strategy formulation;selection of policy options;policy implementation; setting of regulatory standards;monitoring and evaluation.

Problem identification:

problems that are global in scale

problems that are global in scope (and in the future may be global in scale)

Strategy formulationSummary of green-house gas emissions and characteristics.(1) ppmv and emission in Gt; (2) ppbv and emission in Mt; (3) ppbv and emission in Kt;(4) pptv; (5) weighted average of the CFCs, excluding the ones that have been phased out;(6) Global warming potential, i.e. the warming potential relative to CO2 over a 100 year period

Selection of Policy Options

More selection of policy options

Principles for Policy Relevant Science

Correct identification and definition of the issues

Specification of the form and timeframe in which the information is needed

Involvement of several Ministries or policy bodies

No single organization can command the data, information, expertise or finance for path-finding global research

Strategic geographical participation of scientists and institutions Full disciplinary and analytical integration;Transparency of data, method, and presentation; documentation of meta data;An open peer review process and clarification of issues on which there is not yet broad consensus;Sensitivity analysis of the scientific uncertainties and their spatial and temporal impacts;Clear synthesis and presentation of the scientific issues and response options.

More elements for success:

•break traditional molds

•build new collaborative, cross-disciplinary partnerships

Biodiversity Relationships with ScaleScale

Continent/Globe Species Richness, life form Climate ave., extremes

Gamma diversity,Community dominants

Terrain, soils,disturbance

Alpha diversity,beta diversity,richness, evenness

Biological factors (e.g., herbivory),nutrients

Sp

ecie

s (p

rese

nc

e/a

bse

nce

)

Landscape / Region

Community / Landscape

Biodiversity-Measure Cause

Species Abundance

“The various aspects of abundance (there are a plethora of terms and indices) are often correlated with one another, but they are not interchangeable, making it difficult to compare information gathered in different ways or to select appropriate conservation priorities. A method for translating abundance information between different measures is badly needed.”(Kunin 1998)

Scaling NPP, ecosystem metabolism and biodiversity relationships

From plots to:communities to:

landscapes to:lifeforms to:

regions/continents

Relating biodiversity measures to thesehierarchial levels and the different controlsthat occur at each scale.

Scale

Continent/Globe

Landscape / Region

Community / Landscape

Value relationships with scaleBiodiversity/NPP Values/Services

Climate moderation, CO2 reduction, trace gas reduction

Increased precipitation, reduced temp. extremes, water quality/quantity improvement, erosion control, flood reduction

Production of fiber, grains, meat, aesthetics, pollination, soilfertility, reduced soil loss, improvedquality of life, and many more!

HadCM2 Ensemble Experiment- 2050s

HadCM3GGa1 Experiment - 2050s

Framework for sustainability analysisPRESSURE STATE RESPONSE

Resource assessment Impact analysis Technical intervention

•Land use change•High input cropping•Livestock operations

•Watershed degradation, biodiversity loss•Depletion of micro organisms•Groundwater contamination, air pollution

•Re-vegetation, conservation biology•Mixed cropping, integrated plant nutrition•De-stocking, rotation systems

SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS COMPONENTS

ADJUSTMENTS TO PRESSURES:•Incentives (e.g. payments, taxes)•Training•Technology development•Participatory mechanism•Regulatory action•Codes of conduct

•Valuation•Opportunity costs•Financial risk•Direct / In-direct costs

SOCIAL

ENVIRONMENTAL

•Income distribution•Land reform•Access to capital•Food quality•Management capacity

•Natural resource endowments•Agro-ecological resilience•Production system diversity•Population supporting capacity

TRADEOFFS:•Sensitivity analysis •Multicriteria analysis•Risk assessment

ECONOMIC

Progression of development for scientific fields

StageTypes of studies

Characteristics of the data

Mode of communication amongresearches

Logistics

Relevance to social Questions

YOUNG

MATURING

MATURE

Descriptive Few datasets,idiosyncratic format,individually designed

Personal and individual

Little communicationcommunication within single disciplines “Esoteric”

obscure

Technological tools,textbooks

Process-oriented Limited use ofdatabase technology

Electronic communication with personal contact required

Formal communicationsMore easily fundable, compelling

Courses

Graduate programs

CentralPredictive Linked, harmonized, emulative knowledge base with semantic connectivity to many datasets

Multiple communication modes, discussion about scientific questions

Jointly funded programs

Adapted from Nalini. In Press.

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