GCP2011 CarbonBudget 2010

7/27/2019 GCP2011 CarbonBudget 2010

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Carbon

2010Budget

Budget10 released on 5 December 2011

ppt version 5 December 2011


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GCP - Carbon Budget 2010 Contributors

Thomas A. Boden

Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee USAGordon Bonan

National Centre for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USALaurent Bopp

Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de lEnvironnement, UMR, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, FranceErik Buitenhuis

School of Environment Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UKKen Caldeira

Depart. of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Stanford, USAJosep G. Canadell

Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Canberra, AustraliaPhilippe Ciais

Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de lEnvironnement, UMR CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, FranceThomas J. Conway

NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, USAStephen Davis

Depart. of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Stanford, USA

Scott C. DoneyWoods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USAPierre Friedlingstein

Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de lEnvironnement, FranceQUEST, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, UK

Joe L. Hackler

Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, Massachusetts, USAChristoph Heinze

University of Bergen, NorwayRichard A. Houghton

Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, Massachusetts, USACorinne Le Qur

Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research,

University of East Anglia, UKAndr ew Lento nCSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Tasmania, Australia

Ivan Lima

Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USAGregg Marland

Research Institute for Environment, Energy and Economics, Appalachian State University, Boone, North Carolina, USAGlen P. Peters

Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo, NorwayMichael R. Raupach

Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Canberra, AustraliaStephen Sitch

School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, UKJerry Tijputra

University of Bergen, Norway
http://www.ihdp.uni-bonn.de/


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http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget

Peters GP, Marland G, Le Qur C, Boden T, Canadell JG, Raupach MR

(2011) Rapid growth in CO2 emissions after the 2008-2009 global financial

crisis. Nature Climate Change, doi. 10.1038/nclimate1332. Published online

4 December 2011.http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1332

GCP - Carbon Budget 2010
http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudgethttp://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1332http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1332http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1332http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudgethttp://www.ihdp.uni-bonn.de/


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Units

1 Pg = 1 Petagram = 1x1015g = 1 Billion metric tons = 1 Gigaton

1 Tg = 1 Teragram = 1x1012g = 1 Million metric tons

1 Kg Carbon (C) = 3.67 Kg Carbon Dioxide (CO2)


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Fossil Fuel & Cement CO2 Emissions

Peters et al. 2011, Nature CC; Data: Boden, Marland, Andres-CDIAC 2011; Marland et al. 2009

Growth rate

1990-1999

1% per year

Growth rate

2000-2010

3.1% per year

Growth rate

20105.9% yr

Growth rate

2009

-1.3% per year

Uncertainty (6-10%)

+-


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2010 Growth

Rates

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions: Top Emitters

Ca

rbon

Em

issionsperyear

(Ctonsx1,

000

,000)

Time (y)

China

USA

J apan

Russian Fed.

India

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1990 2000 2010

10.4%

9.4%

4.1%

5.8%

6.8%

Global Carbon Project 2011; Peters et al. 2011, Nature CC; Data: Boden, Marland, Andres-CDIAC 2011


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0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions: Profile Examples

0

20

60

140

180

UK

Denmark

Australia

Spain

Canada

Ca

rbon

Em

issionsperyear

(Ctonsx1,0

00

,000)

The Netherlands

2010

Time (y)

100

1990 2000 2010

Global Carbon Project 2011; Peters et al. 2011, Nature CC; Data: Boden, Marland, Andres-CDIAC 2011


8/24Peters et al. 2011, Nature CC, Supplementary Information

Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions Growth in 2010


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Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions (Territorial)

Peters et al. 2011, Nature CC


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Impacts of Economic Crises on C Emissions

Peters et al. 2011, Nature CC


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0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

Top 20 CO2 FF Emitters & Per Capita Emissions 2010

Global Carbon Project 2011; Data: Boden, Marland, Andres-CDIAC 2011; Population World Bank 2011

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

To

talCarbon

Em

iss

ions

(tonsx1,0

00

,000)

PerCapitaEmissions

(tonsCp

ersony-1)


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0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

CO2 Emissions by Fossil Fuel Type

Updated from Le Qur et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Data: Boden, Marland, Andres-CDIAC 2011

Time (y)

3

4

2

1

0

Oil 34%

Coal 41%

Gas

Cement

20101990 2000

C

O2em

ission

s(Pg

Cy-1)


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Change in CO2 Emissions from Coal (2008 to 2010)

CO

2em

iss

ions(Tg

Cy-1)

127% of growth

Global Carbon Project 2011; Data: Boden, Marland, Andres-CDIAC 2011

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

China India Dev. world WorldDevelopedWorld


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Carbon in Trade (2004):Emissions from traded fossil fuel

Davis et al. 2011, PNAS; See also http://supplychainCO2.stanford.edu/

Net exporting countries (blues) to net importing countries (reds)


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Carbon in Trade (2004):Emissions embodied in products

Net exporting countries (blues) to net importing countries (reds)

Davis et al. 2011, PNAS; See also http://supplychainCO2.stanford.edu/


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Updated from Le Qur et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience

CO2 Emissions from FF and LUC (1960-2010)

Current LUC emissions~10% of total CO2 emissions


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CO2 Emissions from Land Use Change

Friedlingstein et al. 2010, Nature Geoscience; Data: RA Houghton, GFRA 2010

1990s

Emissions: 1.50.7 PgC

2000-2010

Emissions: 1.10.7 PgC

Dashed line previous

estimate.CO

2em

issions(Pg

Cy-1)

CO2emissions(PgCO2y-1

)

1990-1999

1.50.7 PgCy-1

2000-2009

1.10.7 PgCy-1

Time (y)


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Emissions from Land Use Change (1850-2010)

R.A. Houghton 2010, personal communication; GFRA 2010

-400

-200

0

200

400600

800

1000

1200

1400

16001800

Tropical

Temperate

CO

2em

issions(Tg

Cy-1)

Time (y)


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Emissions from Land Use Change (1850-2010)

R.A. Houghton 2010, personal communication; GFRA 2010

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000Latin America

S & SE Asia

Tropical Africa

CO

2em

issio

ns

(Tg

Cy-1)

Time (y)


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Atmospheric CO2Concentration

Data Source: Thomas Conway, 2011, NOAA/ESRL + Scripts Institution

1970 1979: 1.3 ppm y-1

1980 1989: 1.6 ppm y1

1990 1999: 1.5 ppm y-1

2000 2010: 1.9 ppm y-1

2010 2.36

2009 1.63

2008 1.81

2007 2.11

2006 1.83

2005 2.392004 1.58

2003 2.20

2002 2.40

2001 1.89

2000 1.22

Annual Mea Growth Rate (ppm y-1)

End of 2010: 389.6 ppm

AnnualGrowthRates

(decadalmea

ns)


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Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget

Global Carbon Project 2011; Updated from Le Qur et al. 2009, Nature G; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

2000-2010(PgC y-1)

(Residual)

2.30.5(5 models)

4.10.2

7.90.5

1.00.7

2.51.0

F fA h i CO E i i (2010)


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Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2010)

9.10.5 PgC y-1

+0.90.7 PgC y-12.61.0 PgC y-1

26%Calculated as the residual

of all other flux components

5.00.2 PgC y-1

50%

24%2.40.5 PgC y-1

Average of 5 models

Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Qur et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

R f i d i hi


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Boden TA, Marland G, Andres RJ (2011) Global, Regional, and National Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions. CarbonDioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge,

Tenn., U.S.A. doi 10.3334/CDIAC/00001_V2011http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/meth_reg.html Canadell J G et al. (2007) Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO2 growth from economic activity, carbon

intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks. PNAS 104: 1886618870,http://www.pnas.org/content/104/47/18866.abstract

Davis SJ , Peters GP, Caldeira K (2011). The Supply Chain of CO2 Emissions. PNAS v.108, doi:10.1073/pnas.1107409108

Davis S, Caldeira K (2010) Consumption-based accounting of CO2 emissions. PNAS 107: 5687-5692. http://www.pnas.org/content/107/12/5687

Friedlingstein P, Houghton RA, Marland G, Hackler J , Boden TA, Conway TJ , Canadell J G, Raupach MR, Ciais P,Le QurC.Update on CO2 emissions. Nature Geoscience, DOI 10.1038/ngeo_1022, Online 21 November 2010.http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1022.html

Global Forest Resources Assessment (2010) Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations;http://www.fao.org/forestry/fra/fra2010/en/

Global Carbon Project (2011) Carbon budget and trends 2010. http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget International Monetary Fund (2011) World economic outlook. September 2011.

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/02 Le Qur C, Raupach MR, Canadell J G, Marland G et al. (2009) Trends in the sources and sinks of carbon

dioxide. Nature geosciences, doi: 10.1038/ngeo689. http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v2/n12/full/ngeo689.html Marland, G., K. Hamal, et al. (2009) How Uncertain Are Estimates of CO2 Emissions? J ournal of Industrial

Ecology 13: 4-7. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1530-9290.2009.00108.x/abstract

Peters GP, Marland G, Le Qur C, Boden T, Canadell JG, Raupach MR (2011) Rapid growth in CO2 emissions

after the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. Nature Climate Change, doi. 10.1038/nclimate1332. Published online 4December 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1332 Peters G P, Minx J C, Weber C L, Edenhofer O (2011) Growth in emissions transfer via international trade from

1990 to 2008. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA108: 89038908. http://www.pnas.org/content/108/21/8903 Conway T, Tans P (2011) Trends in atmospheric carbon dioxide. NOAA/ESRL

www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends van der Werf et al. (2010) Global fire emissions and the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural,

and peat fires (19972009). Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 10, 16153-16230. http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/10/16153/2010/acpd-10-16153-2010.html

References cited in this ppt
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