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Galena-Jo Daviess County Historical Society and Museum Final Report July 2009 In partnership with Durrant Architects and Development Strategies Inc. Creating Cultural Capital

Galena-Jo Daviess County Historical Society and Museum

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Page 1: Galena-Jo Daviess County Historical Society and Museum

Galena-Jo Daviess County Historical Society and Museum Final Report July 2009 In partnership with Durrant Architects and Development Strategies Inc.

Creating Cultural Capital

Page 2: Galena-Jo Daviess County Historical Society and Museum

Lord Cultural Resources is a global professional practice dedicated to creating cultural capital worldwide. We assist people, communities and organizations to realize and enhance cultural meaning and expression. We distinguish ourselves through a comprehensive and integrated full-service offering built on a foundation of key competencies: visioning, planning and implementation. We value and believe in cultural expression as essential for all people. We conduct ourselves with respect for collaboration, local adaptation and cultural diversity, embodying the highest standards of integrity, ethics and professional practice. We help clients clarify their goals; we provide them with the tools to achieve those goals; and we leave a legacy as a result of training and collaboration.

Creating Cultural Capital

Page 3: Galena-Jo Daviess County Historical Society and Museum

Galena-Jo Daviess County Historical Society and Museum Executive Summary

Executive Summary

This Executive Summary presents the key findings of a Master Business Plan study for the proposed revitalization of the Galena-Jo Daviess Historical Society and Museum completed by Lord Cultural Resources in association with Durrant Architects of Dubuque and Development Strategies Inc. of St. Louis. The Master Business Plan study had two main phases. The first phase was the assumptions development part of the workplan to create a wide range of recommendations and assumptions for future planning. The second phase utilized the assumptions to generate estimates of attendance, operating revenue and expenses and estimates of the project’s economic impact.

The Concept for the Revitalized Galena-Jo Daviess Historical Society and Museum

The revitalized Galena-Jo Daviess County Historical Society and Museum will be a national-level attraction and interdisciplinary in nature. The Museum will also present an active schedule of public programs and outreach, a curriculum-linked educational program, an innovative and interactive “minds-on’ approach to the exhibits to attract key target markets. In its revitalized form the Museum will be organized according to a “gateway” concept. The concept works in two levels. The first level focuses on using Grant’s experiences in Galena as a gateway into regional history themes. For example, Grant’s arrival in town in 1860 is a gateway into themes such as the emergence of Galena as a regional center or the reasons for existence as a growing city, which in turn allows explorations of natural history, geology and geography as well as economics. The second level focuses on using the Museum as a gateway to other information resources for those wishing to learn more, for example, kiosks with electronic links to other information resources and information on other attractions. The concept avoids duplication with the proposed Interpretive Center at the existing Ulysses S. Grant State Historic Site (known as the Grant Home) in two ways. Firstly, the Grant Home Interpretive Center is more likely to deal in linear chronological biography of Grant and his family rather than taking a thematic approach and will consider Grant over his entire lifetime. Again the Museum will consider Grant in Galena via a thematic approach whereby the experiences of General Grant provides a way into themes (economy, society, Civil War, urban development etc.) of local and regional history.

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Page 4: Galena-Jo Daviess County Historical Society and Museum

Galena-Jo Daviess County Historical Society and Museum Executive Summary

Projected Attendance and Financial Performance

The projections of attendance, operating revenues and expenses for the revitalized Galena-Jo Daviess County Historical Society and Museum are based on the contextual and market analyses set out in Chapters 2 and 3 and on numerous assumptions as developed over the course of the study. These assumptions are summarized in Chapter 4. A full explanation of all projections is provided in Chapter 5. Projected On-Site Attendance

We projected on-site attendance levels for Years 1, 2 and 3 of operations at the revitalized Museum at 50,000 visitors for Year 1 of operations, 40,000 visitors for Year 2, and a stabilized 45,000 annual visitors for Year 3. The attendance projections recognize that Year 1 is normally the high-attendance year for new or revitalized/expanded museums for reasons as explained in Chapter 5. Projected Revenues and Operating Expenses

The projections build on a “base level” that combines actual figures for the Museum and assumes that all existing sources of grant, contributed, and fundraising income to support operations will be maintained at the new site. This allows the bottom line for the projections to emerge from enhanced earned income minus operating expenses to equal the amount required from add tional contributed, fundraising, grant and endowment sources to break even each year. All financial projections are in constant 2009 dollars.

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Based on the analyses and assumptions in this report we project that the total operating budget for the Museum will grow to about $1.5 million in a stabilized year of operation. Earned income levels plus assumed continuation of base levels of contributed/donated, fundraising and grant income and the addition of endowment income for the Museum are estimated to range from about $1.019 million to about $990,000. This leaves an amount required to break even from additional non-earned sources at about $255,000 in Year 1 to about $519,000 in a stabilized year. On a percentage basis earned income levels will come in at almost 42% in a stabilized year of operation, significantly higher than the 31% national average for history museums. Endowment income is projected to account for over 16% of total operating expenses in a stabilized year, about double the history museum average of about 8%. Note that it is assumed that no debt will be incurred for construction and that there will be no annual outlays for debt service.

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Galena-Jo Daviess County Historical Society and Museum Executive Summary

The table below summarizes revenues and expenses per year:

Summary Base Level Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 1 % Year 2 % Year 3 %Annual Attendance 9,500 50,000 40,000 45,000

Operating RevenuesAdmissions $40,500 $334,800 $280,488 $301,320 26.3% 19.8% 20.0%Retail Sales $39,550 $212,500 $174,000 $202,500 16.7% 12.3% 13.4%Membership $15,000 $48,000 $45,000 $50,000 3.8% 3.2% 3.3%Educational and Public Programs $14,000 $42,000 $44,100 $44,100 3.3% 3.1% 2.9%Rentals $0 $17,500 $18,375 $19,294 1.4% 1.3% 1.3%Other Earned Income $10,930 $15,000 $15,000 $15,000 1.2% 1.1% 1.0%Assumed Endowment Income $0 $250,000 $250,000 $250,000 19.6% 17.7% 16.6%Existing Fundraising Events $52,570 $60,000 $68,000 $68,000 4.7% 4.8% 4.5%Existing Donations/Contributed $30,700 $30,700 $30,700 $30,700 2.4% 2.2% 2.0%Existing Grant Income $8,750 $8,750 $8,750 $8,750 0.7% 0.6% 0.6%Total Revenue Projected $212,000 $1,019,250 $934,413 $989,664 80.0% 66.0% 65.6%

Operating ExpensesSalaries, Wages, Benefits $103,043 $582,065 $611,168 $641,726 45.7% 43.2% 42.5%Occupancy Costs $18,150 $284,704 $290,398 $296,206 22.3% 20.5% 19.6%Exhibitions $15,670 $25,000 $150,000 $185,000 2.0% 10.6% 12.3%Programs $1,800 $84,000 $92,400 $88,200 6.6% 6.5% 5.8%General & Administrative $19,165 $87,310 $79,452 $83,424 6.9% 5.6% 5.5%Marketing $1,500 $62,500 $60,000 $67,500 4.9% 4.2% 4.5%Collections Care $2,500 $15,000 $15,000 $15,000 1.2% 1.1% 1.0%Retail Cost of Goods Sold $17,857 $106,250 $87,000 $101,250 8.3% 6.1% 6.7%Cost of Fundraising Events $23,655 $27,203 $30,752 $30,752 2.1% 2.2% 2.0%Total Expenses $203,340 $1,274,031 $1,416,169 $1,509,058 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Amount/Percentage Required from Additional Fundraising, Contributed and Grant Sources to Break Even on Operations $8,660 ($254,781) ($481,756) ($519,394) -20.0% -34.0% -34.4%Earned Income Totals/Percentages $669,800 $576,963 $632,214 52.6% 40.7% 41.9%

Economic Impact

The full economic impact study is provided in chapter 6. Economic Impact of Operations

Operational spending by the museum will have a ripple effect that will be felt throughout the County’s economy. The museum is projected to spend an estimated $1.9 million annually to operate the Museum. We estimate that operations spending will trigger an additional $2.0 million in County output, $693,000 in additional household earnings, and support an additional 32 jobs annually throughout the County across all industries.

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Galena-Jo Daviess County Historical Society and Museum Executive Summary

ECONOMIC IMPACT OF OPERATIONS AT

GALENA-JO DAVIESS HISTORICAL SOCIETY AND MUSEUM Jo Daviess County, IL

(in 2009 dollars) Average Annual*

Operating

Expenditures Employee

Compensation Total Direct Spending $1,183,000 $705,300 $1,888,300

Multipliers Output 1.33 0.59 1.04 Earnings 0.51 0.12 0.36 Jobs 24.06 4.28 16.37

ADDED ECONOMIC IMPACT ON JO DAVIESS COUNTY Output $1,573,000 $417,000 $1,990,000 Earnings $608,000 $85,000 $693,000 Indirect Jobs Held by County Residents 29 3 32

TOTAL ECONOMIC IMPACT ON JO DAVIESS COUNTY Output $3,173,000 Earnings $1,398,300 Direct Jobs at New Museum 13 Total Direct and Indirect Jobs for County Residents 45 *Values represent the average value over a 20-year projection period.

Multiplier Definitions: Output: Total dollar change in the Jo Daviess economy due to

expenditures by visitors to the museum. Earnings: Total dollar change in earnings of households in Jo Daviess

county due to expenditures by visitors to the museum.

Jobs: Total change in the number of jobs held by Jo Daviess county residents per $1,000,000 of added output.

Economic Impact of Visitor Spending on Jo Daviess County

Additional multiplier effects can be expected from the anticipated visitor spending outside the Museum. Many visitors will shop or dine in local establishments as part of their visit to the Museum. Moreover, an estimated 62 percent of visitors will require overnight accommodations during their visit. We estimate that visitor spending attributable to visits to the Museum on retail items, food, and lodging will total about $2.4 million annually. This spending will ripple through the County’s economy to generate an additional $3.2 million in County output, $753,000 in additional household earnings for County residents, and support an additional 30 jobs per year throughout the County across all industries.

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Galena-Jo Daviess County Historical Society and Museum Executive Summary

ECONOMIC IMPACT OF VISITOR SPENDING OUTSIDE MUSEUM

GALENA-JO DAVIESS HISTORICAL SOCIETY AND MUSEUM Jo Daviess County, IL

(in 2009 dollars)

Average Annual*

Retail

Spending

Food & Drink Spending Lodging Total

Direct Spending $283,000 $624,000 $1,461,000 $2,368,000

Multipliers

Output 1.34 1.32 1.37 1.70 Earnings 0.29 0.27 0.35 0.40 Jobs 11.21 15.60 11.63 15.83

ADDED ECONOMIC IMPACT ON JO DAVIESS COUNTY

Output $379,000 $823,000 $2,001,000 $3,203,000 Earnings $82,000 $166,000 $505,000 $753,000 Indirect Jobs Held by County Residents 3 10 17 30

TOTAL ECONOMIC IMPACT ON JO DAVIESS COUNTY

Output $5,571,000 Earnings $753,000 Direct Jobs in County na Total Direct and Indirect Jobs for County Residents 30

*values represent the average value over a 20 year projection period.

Multiplier Definitions: Output: Total dollar change in the Jo Daviess economy due to

expenditures by visitors to the museum. Earnings: Total dollar change in earnings of households in Jo Daviess

county due to expenditures by visitors to the museum.

Jobs:

Total change in the number of jobs held by Jo Daviess county residents per $1,000,000 of added output.

Economic Impact on State of Illinois

We estimate that the $1.9 million spent by the Museum for operating expenses and payroll, and the $2.4 million spent by visitors in the local community will trigger an additional $10.1 million in state output, $2.9 million in added household earnings for Illinois residents, and support an additional 99 jobs annually throughout the state across all industries.

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Galena-Jo Daviess County Historical Society and Museum Executive Summary

TOTAL ECONOMIC IMPACT OF

GALENA-JO DAVIESS HISTORICAL SOCIETY AND MUSEUM State of Illinois

(in 2009 dollars)

Average Annual*

Operating

ExpendituresEmployee Compensation

Retail, Food & Drink

Spending Total

Direct Spending $1,183,000 $705,000 $2,368,000 $4,256,000

Multipliers

Output 2.29 1.67 2.84 2.38 Earnings 0.81 0.45 0.79 0.69 Jobs 32.38 12.69 27.53 23.26

ADDED ECONOMIC IMPACT ON JO DAVIESS COUNTY

Output $1,616,000 $3,149,000 $5,372,000 $10,137,000 Earnings $571,000 $857,000 $1,501,000 $2,929,000 Indirect Jobs Held by County Residents 23 24 52 99

TOTAL ECONOMIC IMPACT ON JO DAVIESS COUNTY

Output $13,688,000 Earnings $3,634,000 Direct Jobs at New Museum 13 Total Direct and Indirect Jobs for County Residents 112 *values represent the average value over a 20 year projection period.

Multiplier Definitions: Output: Total dollar change in the Illinois economy due to expenditures by visitors

to the museum.

Earnings: Total dollar change in earnings of households in Illinois due to expenditures by visitors to the museum.

Jobs: Total change in the number of jobs held by Illinois residents per $1,000,000 of added output.

Space and Facility Recommendations

It is assumed that the total gross area of the revitalized Museum will be 40,572 gross sq. ft. Total net (usable) space is equal to 33,810 net sq. ft. as per the space list below. The spaces are organized according to Lord’s zonal analysis:

Zone A: Public Non-Collection Spaces Zone B: Public Collection Spaces Zone C: Non-Public Collection Spaces Zone D: Non-Public Non-Collection Spaces

Key spaces include: Exhibition Space: There will be 10,000 net sq. ft. of permanent collection exhibition space and a 2,000 net sq. ft. temporary exhibition gallery.

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Page 9: Galena-Jo Daviess County Historical Society and Museum

Galena-Jo Daviess County Historical Society and Museum Executive Summary

Rentable spaces include:

A main lobby of 2,000 net sq. ft. The Orientation Theater of 1,200 net sq. ft. The Multipurpose Room of 500 net sq. ft.

Retail: The retail store will comprise some 800 net sq. ft. of public space.

GALENA HISTORY MUSEUM

NSF

A Vestibule 75A Lobby 2,000A Coat Storage 300

A General Storage 750A Admission /Ticketing 300A Gift Shop 800A Multipurpose Room 500

A School Group Backpack Storage 150

A Orientation Theatre 1,200A Men's Restroom 400A Women's Restroom 500

6,975

NSFB Exhibits SpaceB Permanent Exhibits 10,000

B Temporary Exhibits 2,000

Sub - Total Zone B 12,000

NSFCollections Storage / Archive

C Artifact Storage 5,000

C Crating/Loading Dock 1,000

C Isolation Room/ Quarantine 200

C Collection Workshop 500

C Staging Area 500

7,200 0

Public Non- Collection Areas

Non Public Collection Areas

Sub - Total Zone A

Zone

Public Collection Areas

Zone

Zone

Sub - Total Zone C

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Galena-Jo Daviess County Historical Society and Museum Executive Summary

NSFStaff Offices and Work Areas

D Museum Director 150D Curator 150D Retail Office 150D Retail Storage 250D Conference Room 180D Chair and Table Storage 500D Maintenance Shop 300D Exhibit Prop Storage 500D Catering kitchen 200D Storage Closet 50D Development Director 120D Volunteer Desks 100D Administrative secretary 75D Kitchenette 150D Staff Restroom 100D Additional staff offices 500

Technology CenterD Data System Head end 80

D Phone panel Fire alarm control 40

D Telephone control 20

D Security control room 40

General Building ServicesD Mechanical Room 2,500

D Electrical Room 200

D Electrical closets 80D Fire sprinkler entrance control 60D Receiving room 550D Trash room 120D Recycling room 120D Mechanical chases 100D Utility Storage 250

7,635Total Net Area Summary

NSF Percentage Net Area by Zone

Zone A 6,975 21%Zone B 12,000 35%Zone C 7,200 21%Zone D 7,635 23%

Total Net Area 33,810Grossing Factor @1.2 6,762Gross Building Area 40,572

Sub - Total Zone D

Zone Non Public Non Collection Areas

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Galena-Jo Daviess County Historical Society and Museum Executive Summary

Site

Although it is not possible to assume a particular site at this time, it is assumed that the revitalized Museum will be located at a site in downtown Galena, it will be easily accessible to visitors, have a high degree of visibility and access to the site will be clearly marked and well signed.

Staffing Recommendations

In addition to existing staff, the Museum will add a total of 9.5 full-time equivalent paid positions. An allocation for seasonal casual and part-time help equal to 1 full-time equivalent position will be included within the Museum’s annual operating budget.

Programs, Operations and Marketing

The following key programmatic, operational and marketing assumptions have been generated for the purposes of this study: Exhibitions: Permanent collection exhibitions will be interdisciplinary, interactive and of high quality. It is assumed that the revitalized Museum will host at least one major temporary exhibition per year. Public and Educational Programs: The Museum will have a full schedule of public and educational programs in keeping with its vision to be a national-level attraction. Public programs will include lectures, re-enactments, evening films, special events and the like. The Museum will work with local School Districts to develop a curriculum-linked educational program.

Admission Charges: Admission will be $10.00 for adults and $8.00 for children. Operating Hours: The museum will be opened from 9AM to 4:30 PM year-round. Marketing: A new name for the Museum will be developed. The Museum will be marketed as a destination, be packaged with the Presidential Trails itineraries. Marketing strategies will emphasize the packaging of the Museum with other attractions in the region to present an integrated critical mass of tourism product for visitors. Partnership opportunities will be sought with other attractions in Galena for joint programming and special events. Membership Program: There will be an upper-level membership program.

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Page 12: Galena-Jo Daviess County Historical Society and Museum

Galena-Jo Daviess County Historical Society and Museum Executive Summary

Revenue Generation: Along with other revenue generation strategies, a gift shop will be located in the Museum. The Museum’s 2,000 sq. ft. lobby as well as its theatre and multi-purpose spaces will be available for rental. There will be one additional new special event over and above those already presented by the Historical Society and Museum. The revitalized Museum will not include a food service outlet to avoid competition with Galena’s many restaurants and in recognition of the fact that food service outlets are rarely profitable for museum institutions and in fact are often a cost center.

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Table of Contents

1. Introduction .............................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Background and Goals ..............................................................................................................................1 1.2 Study Process ..............................................................................................................................................1 1.3 Concept Outline..........................................................................................................................................2 1.4 Organization of the Report......................................................................................................................3

2. Contextual and Comparables Analysis................................................................. 4

2.1 History Museums in the Overall Museum Marketplace ..................................................................4 2.2 The Context for Presidential-Themed Museums ..............................................................................7 2.3 The Experience of Museum-Related Attractions in the Tri-State Region .............................. 13 2.4 Comparables Analysis ........................................................................................................................... 17

3. Existing and Potential Markets............................................................................28

3.1 Existing Markets for the Galena-Jo Daviess County Historical Society and Museum ......... 28 3.2 Potential Markets .................................................................................................................................... 30 3.3 Analysis of Key Issues Likely to Affect Assumptions.................................................................... 38

4. Key Recommendations/Assumptions Underlying Projections of

Attendance, Operating Revenues and Expenses..............................................41 4.1 Concept ...................................................................................................................................................... 41 4.2 Visitor Experience................................................................................................................................... 42 4.3 Collections................................................................................................................................................. 43 4.4 Space and Facilities ................................................................................................................................ 43 4.5 Site............................................................................................................................................................... 43 4.6 Staffing and Volunteers ........................................................................................................................ 44 4.7 Operations and Marketing.................................................................................................................... 44 4.8 Capital Campaign.................................................................................................................................... 46 4.9 External Environment ........................................................................................................................... 46 4.10 Other Assumptions................................................................................................................................. 46

5. Attendance, Operating Revenue and Expense Projections ............................48

5.1 On-Site Attendance Projections .......................................................................................................... 48 5.2 Projected Operating Revenues ............................................................................................................ 54 5.3 Projected Expenses................................................................................................................................. 60 5.4 Summary of Attendance and Financial Projections...................................................................... 64

6. Economic Impact ....................................................................................................66

6.1 Methodology............................................................................................................................................. 66 6.2 Assumptions............................................................................................................................................. 68 6.3 Economic Impact..................................................................................................................................... 69

Appendices Appendix A: Acknowledgements ............................................................................ A-1 Appendix B: Proposed Space List............................................................................ B-1 Appendix C: Assumptions ........................................................................................ C-1 Appendix D: Case Studies: Average Visitor Spending By Museum Patrons ... D-1 Appendix E: Detailed Economic Impact Projections ............................................E-1

This communication contains confidential or proprietary information that may be legally privileged. It is intended only for its named recipients. If this communication has been misdirected to you in error, you are not authorized to use, disclose, distribute or rely on it. In that event, please notify the author immediately. Opinions contained in this communication may not be those of the company.

Page 14: Galena-Jo Daviess County Historical Society and Museum

GALENA-JO DAVIESS COUNTY HISTORICAL SOCIETY AND MUSEUM Final Report 1. Introduction

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1. Introduction

1.1 Background and Goals

The Galena-Jo Daviess Historical Society and Museum is currently located in a heritage building on Bench St. in historic Galena, Illinois. The Society also operates the Old Blacksmith Shop, open on a seasonal basis, on Commerce St. Recognizing the limitations of the existing Bench St. facility, the Board of the Galena-Jo Daviess County Historical Society proposed the revitalization of the Museum via a new emphasis on the experiences of President Ulysses S. Grant, the famed Civil War General and 18th President of the United States. The goals for the project include the enhancement of both the visitor’s experience and the attendance and financial performance of the existing Galena History Museum and the improvement of its overall sustainability. For that reason the Board commissioned a Master Business Plan study to test its feasibility and develop a plan for the realization of the idea. The resulting RFP process led to the appointment of Lord Cultural Resources and Durrant Architects in association with Development Strategies Inc. in September 2008 to conduct the study.

1.2 Study Process

This Master Business Plan study contains two phases: • Phase 1 is the assumptions development part of the workplan, including a

workshop and on-site interview process as well as deskside research to create the recommendations/assumptions according to which future planning can proceed. These assumptions encompass all aspects of the Museum’s operations, including concept, visitor experience, facility size, site, operations, staffing and other assumptions crucial to the development of attendance and operational projections for the revitalized Museum.

• And Phase 2, which utilizes the approved assumptions to generate estimates of attendance, operating revenue and expenses, as well as expected economic impact, of the revitalized museum.

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GALENA-JO DAVIESS COUNTY HISTORICAL SOCIETY AND MUSEUM Final Report 1. Introduction

To facilitate the Phase 1 work, the consultants conducted deskside research and analysis and surveyed the operations of the existing Museum prior to coming to Galena to facilitate a full-day Assumptions Workshop on Nov. 12, 2008. On-site interviews in Galena tested the concept directions discussed and developed during the Assumptions Workshop and these were further refined subsequently via additional research and analysis and feedback from the client. These refined assumptions were the main product of the Phase 1 report. Upon receiving and incorporating client feedback into the Phase 1 report, we utilized the assumptions to generate the Attendance, Operating Revenue and Expense Projections and the Economic Impact Analysis, both incorporated into this Final Report.

1.3 Concept Outline

One of the key results emerging from the Phase 1 work was the determination of an outline concept for the revitalized Museum. While it is understood that the development of a fully realized concept is outside the scope of this study, the basic idea is that the Museum is to be organized according to a “gateway” concept. This idea of gateway can work on two levels: The basic idea is that the Museum is to be organized according to a “gateway” concept. This idea of gateway can work on two levels: • Firstly, the experience focuses on Grant in Galena and his experiences in

Galena are utilized as a gateway into regional history themes. For example, his arrival in town in 1860 is a gateway into themes such as the emergence of Galena as a regional center or the reasons for existence as a growing city, which in turn allows explorations of natural history, geology and geography as well as economics; Grant in the Civil War allows the Museum to deal with the impact of the War on the town and the stories of the other Generals who came from or lived in Galena in addition to Grant; and so on in this general fashion. Grant is central, but so is Galena as per the mandate of the Historical Society and Museum.

• And secondly, the Museum will be a gateway to other information resources for those wishing to learn more. These could include kiosks with electronic links to other information resources and information on other attractions (including the Grant Home for Grant’s biography, the National Mississippi River Museum and Aquarium for more on the natural environment, and so on), for example.

The concept avoids duplication with the proposed Interpretive Center at the Grant Home in two ways: firstly, the Grant Home Interpretive Center is more likely to deal in linear chronological biography of Grant and his family rather than taking a thematic approach and will consider Grant over his entire lifetime. Again the Museum will consider Grant in Galena via a thematic approach whereby the experiences of General Grant provide a way into the themes (economy, society, Civil War, urban development, etc.) of local and regional history.

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GALENA-JO DAVIESS COUNTY HISTORICAL SOCIETY AND MUSEUM Final Report 1. Introduction

1.4 Organization of the Report

This Final Report is organized in six chapters: • Chapter 1, this Introduction;

• Chapter 2, the Contextual and Comparables Analysis, which surveys the market performance of history museums, attractions in the region and museums of the type being considered for development in Galena and draws key lessons and conclusions from the data. The experiences of four comparable institutions are also highlighted.

• In Chapter 3 we examine Existing and Potential Markets for the Museum, analyzing the key market-related issues for the existing Museum operation, as well as market profiles and opportunities for potential resident, school and tourist markets in the Galena area. This chapter concludes with an analysis of key issues and directions drawn from the analysis in both chapters 2 and 3.

• Chapter 4 sets out the Key Recommendations/Assumptions that form the basis of the Attendance, Operating Revenue and Expense Projections and the Economic Impact Analysis.

• The Attendance, Operating Revenue and Expense Projections are included in Chapter 5;

• Finally, we provide an Economic Impact Analysis in Chapter 6 created by Development Strategies Inc. of St. Louis.

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GALENA-JO DAVIESS COUNTY HISTORICAL SOCIETY AND MUSEUM Final Report 2. Contextual and Comparables Analysis

2. Contextual and Comparables Analysis

This chapter provides a contextual and comparables analyses intended to help guide the attendance, operating revenue and expense projections in chapter 5 and to support the assumptions presented in chapter 4. The data have been augmented by the interview process conducted in Galena in mid-November 2008. The main sections of this chapter provide the following: • Contextual Analysis: In this section we analyze the overall museums

marketplace, including comparisons of history museums relative to other museum types, the experience of Presidential-themed museums and the overall experience of museums in the immediate Tri-State area (northwestern Illinois, southwestern Wisconsin, and northeastern Iowa);

• Comparables Analysis: Here we examine the market-related experience of four new or recently expanded/renovated/relocated institutions. Information on their capital fundraising experience and impact of the new facilities on attendance, earned revenue and operating expenses is also provided and analyzed with respect to the project in Galena.

It is important to emphasize that the data in the following sections are “as reported” by each of the responding institutions and may not always be accurate. For example, in some cases the attendance data may not be limited to on-site visitors, may double count some visitors, and may not always be updated, particularly if attendance levels decline in a given year. The data are therefore supplemented or amended by additional information emerging from the interview process in this study.

2.1 History Museums in the Overall Museum Marketplace

The Table that follows is an overview of the museum marketplace based on survey data from the American Association of Museums (AAM). Highlighted are key findings and implications for the proposed expanded/relocated Historical Society and Museum and in particular to its future operations. • Attendance: Relative to other museum types, history museums are among the

least visited, recording a median attendance of only 10,750. This is not necessarily an indication of lower appeal for this museum type per se, but rather is the result of a large number of small local history museums that draw very few visitors and drive the median figures down.

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GALENA-JO DAVIESS COUNTY HISTORICAL SOCIETY AND MUSEUM Final Report 2. Contextual and Comparables Analysis

• Admission Charges: Not all museums charge admission. And in the case of history museums some 57% charge compared to the overall average of 61% charging. The average adult admission charge for history museums was $5.00 – somewhat under the overall median charge of $6.00 and a reflection of the fact that many are small-scale, often volunteer-run institutions.

• Sources of Operating Income: The average museum generates 31% of its operating income from earned sources, 35% from private sources, 10% from endowments and 24% from government sources. For history museums, the median figures are 30% earned, 32% private, 8% endowment and 30% from government sources. The data indicate the real ty that museums require a variety of sources of income to support operating costs.

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• Earned Income per Visitor: The median earned income per visitor for all museum types is $5.91. Art museums earn the most per visitor at $8.70, followed by botanic gardens at $7.96, specialized museums at $7.77 and zoos/aquariums at $7.72. History museums earn less per visitor than the overall median at $4.39 – again reflecting the many small scale history museums throughout the United States,

• Operating Cost per Visitor: While earned income per visitor is highest at art museums, so too is the operating cost per visitor at $37.83 – some 38% higher than the $23.35 overall median. The need for more staff, security and other collection-related requirements account for this higher than average figure. History museums are not far off the overall median with operating costs per visitor at $21.05.

• Allocation of Operating Expenses: History museums tend to spend more than average on collections care and less on marketing, and slightly less on staffing.

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2006 AAM Profile Arboretum or Botanic

Garden

Art Museum

Children's or Youth

Museum

General Museum

Historic Home or

Site

History Museum or Historical

Society

Natural History or

Anthro- pology

Nature Center

Science or Tech

Specialized Museum

Zoo/ Aquarium

Overall

Sample Size 21 197 26 73 82 226 43 8 31 84 18 809Median Attendance 106,235 59,822 78,500 43,500 16,000 10,750 62,803 52,850 244,589 20,000 440,502 33,446% Charging Admission Fees

71% 50% 100% 62% 74% 57% 56% 38% 81% 55% 100% 60.7%

Median Adult Admission Charge

$7.00 $7.00 $5.00 $6.00 $5.00 $5.00 $6.50 $5.00 $8.50 $7.00 $8.73 $6.00

Median Operating Income

$2,758,875 $2,314,957 $478,297 $1,079,505 $274,504 $226,000 $1,539,358 $720,310 $5,219,333 $481,454 $5,885,483 $850,000

Average Earned Revenues

36% 24% 51% 27% 32% 30% 22% 54% 44% 34% 59% 31.0%

Average Revenues from Private Donors

29% 46% 32% 30% 27% 32% 34% 11% 29% 42% 12% 35.2%

Average Revenues from Investment Sources

21% 15% 2% 10% 11% 8% 10% 7% 3% 4% 1% 9.6%

Average Revenues from Government Sources

15% 14% 15% 33% 30% 30% 33% 28% 25% 21% 28% 24.1%

Median Value of Endowment

$13,806,179 $6,980,475 $282,500 $1,869,858 $799,536 $244,006 $1,475,035 $1,265,869 $1,007,470 $1,580,537 $1,818,629 $1,580,537

Median Earned Income per Visitor

$7.96 $8.70 $5.56 $5.14 $4.39 $4.21 $4.57 $3.33 $6.73 $7.77 $7.72 $5.91

Median Operating Expenses

$4,026,598 $2,192,166 $700,000 $1,169,647 $282,088 $193,639 $2,036,815 $891,510 $4,785,360 $537,908 $6,613,872 $829,037

Operating Cost per Visitor

$25.05 $37.82 $9.37 $20.29 $18.15 $21.05 $26.25 $11.68 $13.27 $27.58 $13.23 $23.35

Staff salaries as a % of total expenses [Median]

61.6% 48.5% 55.7% 50.6% 56.8% 48.0% 51.0% 66.8% 47.9% 52.4% 58.1% 50.9%

Collections care as a % of total expenses [Median]

16% 10% 0% 8% 5% 11% 11% 7% 3% 9% 31% 9.4%

Marketing Budget as a % of total expenses

5% 5% 6% 6% 3% 3% 6% 5% 9% 5% 5% 4.4%

Marketing Expenses Per Visitor [Median]

$0.63 $1.75 $0.46 $1.20 $0.64 $0.56 $1.42 $0.57 $1.26 $1.13 $0.55 $1.05

Source: 2006 Museum Financial Information, American Association of Museums, 2006

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2.2 The Context for Presidential-Themed Museums

As discussed during the Nov. 12 Assumptions Workshop, the revitalized Galena-Jo Daviess County Historical Society will explore the history and heritage of the tri-state area through the experience of President Ulysses S. Grant, who maintained a home in Galena from 1860 through to his death in 1885. This section provides data on the national Presidential Library system operated by the National Archives and Records Administration, as well as other non-NARA Presidential-themed institutions. The goal of the section is to draw lessons from the experience of those museums with a focus on individual Presidents, to guide the development and refinement of the assumptions generated during the Nov. 12 session, and to provide input to the likely attendance and financial performance of the revitalized Museum in Galena. 2.2.1 The National Presidential Library and Museum System

Although it is not possible for an institution with a focus on Ulysses S. Grant to become part of the National Presidential Library and Museum system (since this depends on the transfer of Presidential papers to NARA upon completion of a President’s term in office), this section on the market and financial performance of these museums is provided for guidance as to the likely appeal of museums dedicated to individual Presidents. The Presidential Libraries are administered by the National Archives and Records Administration’s (NARA) Office of Presidential Libraries and funded by NARA in association with the various Presidential Foundations and other private bodies. The goal of the Presidential Library and Museum system is to preserve and make available the papers, records, and other historical materials of U.S. Presidents. All include museums offering exhibitions and public programs. The advantage of belonging to the federal Presidential Library and Museum system is that operations are federally funded although capital monies are raised by the individual Presidential foundations. The following points illustrate the market-related experience of these libraries/museums: • Attendance: Average and median reported attendance in 2007 was about

162,000 and 110,000, respectively. The highest-attended reporting museum was the new Clinton Library, opened in 2004. Second-highest in attendance was the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library (300,000/year) followed by the John F. Kennedy Library and Museum at about 220,000 annual visitors. The apparent pattern for attendance at these museums is for highest attendance at the libraries of the most recent Presidents, or at the libraries of those with iconic status (for example, the continuing interest in and power of the Kennedy name).

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• Admission Charges: Admission charges at Presidential library/museums vary widely with location and market appeal, but most do charge an admission fee for adults – the median is $7.00. This admission fee is closely related to the local museum marketplace, the level of visitor experience offered, and the perceived appeal of the individual President. Of note is that most offer free admission to children, recogniz ng that such institutions are generally not perceived to offer particular appeal to children. This should be considered when setting admission charges for the new Museum in Galena, which will likely continue to cater to a mostly adult market (see the Potential Market Analysis in chapter 3).

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• Membership: Only 5 of the 12 Presidential Libraries report membership programs and family membership rates, which likely reflects high levels of tourist visitation by adults. This will also be the case in Galena, which suggests focusing on a national upper-level membership program rather than a program aimed at residents.

• Staffing Levels and Volunteers: Staffing levels are relatively high, indicating that such institutions cannot operate on the basis of only a few staff persons. The average figure is 26 full-time staff and seven part-time, with the median at 28 and 6, respectively. Most of the institutions also reported support from volunteers with average and median figures at 76 and 38, respectively. The figures show that a high-level national attraction requires significant numbers of staff to operate in order to deliver the exhibit ons and programs that drive attendance. But it should be noted that some of the staff in the Presidential Libraries are connected to the library and archives which will drive up staff numbers.

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• Facilities: Since the ultimate purpose of a Presidential Library is to house Presidential papers space allocations tend to focus on library/archive, conference and meeting space, with less emphasis on exhibition space. This also reflects assured annual federal funding. For the larger institutions, and especially those located in college towns or in large cities, the amount of conference space can be extensive. For example, the John F. Kennedy Library and Museum has two auditoria with 250 seats each, as well as a 500-seat conference hall, and a 70-seat conference room within its 20,000 sq. ft. conference center, which is in addition to its 135,000 sq. ft. library. Note that the Kennedy Library has just 18,000 sq. ft. of museum exhibition space. The George Bush Presidential Library and Museum totals some 120,000 sq. ft. but has just 20,000 sq. ft. of exhibition space (of which 3,000 sq. ft. is for changing exhibitions). There is a 137-seat large-format theater. Because the Bush library is on the campus of Texas A&M University it has access to a shared conference center with two auditoria (600 and 400 seats, respectively).1 The Ronald Reagan Presidential Library and Museum in Simi Valley, California is a 153,000 sq. ft. facility, of which only 22,000 sq. ft. is exhibition space, plus a 400-seat auditorium, and additional classroom and conference spaces. Additional exhibition space, the Air Force One Pavilion, was opened in October 2005 to houses the Air Force One airplane, a Johnson-era Marine One and a Presidential motorcade. In Little Rock, Arkansas, the Clinton Presidential Center includes 20,000 sq. ft. of exhibition space (including a full-scale mock-up of the Oval Office) and an 80-seat theater. As with other Libraries, there will be a banquet hall, café, meeting and seminar rooms, research offices and support space for archivists and scholars. A small-town example is the Herbert Hoover Presidential Library and Museum, in Mr. Hoover’s hometown of West Branch, Iowa. Opened in 1962, it underwent an expansion in the early 1990s from 32,000 to 44,500 square feet, of which about 10,000 square feet is permanent exhibition space. Changing exhibits are displayed in the William Quarton Gallery. Other facilities include a 180-seat auditorium, a 60-person capacity multipurpose room, and a 30-seat conference room.

The Richard M. Nixon Library and Birthplace in Yorba Linda, California differs very much from the other institutions because it has only recently become part of the official Presidential Library system operated by NARA. Opened in 1990, in 2004 the Nixon Library and Birthplace expanded to about double its current size, adding about 47,000 sq. ft. of space, as well as a 4,100 sq. ft. temporary exhibition gallery, to its existing 52,000 sq. ft. Attendance information is difficult to find; one published report says the Library and Birthplace attracted a reported 140,000 visitors in 2003, and that is the number quoted in the table below.2

1 The George W. Bush Presidential Museum will also be located on the campus of a Texas university – in this case Texas Tech. 2 See The Orange County Register, Nov. 2, 2004.

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In 2000, the Richard M. Nixon Library Foundation reported revenues of almost $5.9 million against expenses of just over $5.7 million. Earned revenues accounted for about 18%, including admissions at 6%, rentals at about 5%, and the gift shop at about 5%, with event income accounting for most of the earned revenue balance. Investment income provided about 8%, with contributed revenues making up the lion’s share at 73%, of which government contributions accounted for only about 2%, with the remainder from private sources. Salaries, wages, and benefits made up the largest expense category at about 41%, with occupancy at about 4% The National Presidential Library System, 2007

Site/Museum/Memorial Location Attendance Adult

Admission FT

Staff PT

Staff Volunteers William J. Clinton Presidential Library and Museum Little Rock, AR 400,000 $7.00 25 n/a n/a Ronald Reagan Presidential Library Simi Valley, CA 300,000 $12.00 30 10 182 John F. Kennedy Presidential Library and Museum Boston, MA 220,000 $10.00 52 16 20 Lyndon Baines Johnson Library and Museum Austin, TX 183,000 $0.00 38 16 135 Richard M. Nixon Presidential Library and Museum Yorba Linda, CA 140,000 $9.95 n/a n/a n/aGeorge Bush Presidential Library and Museum College Station, TX 138,252 $7.00 30 1 200 Franklin D. Roosevelt Presidential Library and Museum Hyde Park, NY 110,000 $14.00 21 7 19 Harry S. Truman Library and Museum Independence, MO 110,000 $7.00 40 7 90 Gerald R. Ford Presidential Museum Grand Rapids MI 100,000 $0.00 11 4 37 Dwight D. Eisenhower Presidential Library and Museum Abilene, KS 89,500 $7.00 0 0 5 Museum of the Jimmy Carter Library Atlanta, Georgia 82,757 $8.00 28 3 39 Herbert Hoover Presidential Library and Museum West Branch, IA 70,000 $6.00 15 5 35 Average 161,959 $7.33 26 7 76 Median 124,126 $7.00 28 6 38

Source: AAM 2008 Official Museum D rectory. Richard Nixon Presidential Library figure obtained from press reports as per footnote 2.

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2.2.2 Other Presidential Museums in the United States

There are a variety of institutions dedicated to exploring the meaning and significance of the Presidency in American politics and society, or to a particular President. Some are museums; some are for-profit attractions.3 The most famous for-profit attraction is the Hall of Presidents at the Magic Kingdom in both Disney World and Disneyland. This section focuses on museum attractions only.

Attendance: The average and median is about 106,000 and 37,000 respectively, but the average is skewed by the Abraham Lincoln Presidential Library and Museum. This new institution is not part of the NARA system but is the most successful Presidential-themed institution in the nation. Opened in April 2005, it is characterized as an “experience museum” and in January 2007 it welcomed its 1 millionth visitor. This 200,000 sq. ft., $45 million complex is operated by the Illinois Historic Preservation Agency and includes an Archive, Library and Museum. Its high-tech, heavily experiential exhibition approach about one of the most iconic American Presidents has proven to be very popular. Most museums of this kind do not attract numbers approaching this figure, and therefore more reliable guidance to the future attendance performance of a non-NARA Presidential-themed institution is provided by the median figure of about 38,000 annual visitors. Admission Charges: The average is $6.23 with the median at $5. Admission charges at these museums tend to be higher than at NARA museums, since most are private non-for-profit attractions. Higher admission may be a factor in lower attendance than at comparable NARA sites. Staffing: Staffing levels vary widely, from a high of 20 at the State-operated FDR Little White House to a small staff of 1 full-time and 1 part-time person at the Reagan Boyhood Home. Staffing levels at the new Abraham Lincoln Presidential Library in Springfield were not made available to the consultants, but it is likely that an institution of this scale would require higher staffing allocations than any of the other institutions analyzed here.

3 Lord Cultural Resources defines “museum” as a nonprofit permanent establishment open to the public and administered in the public interest, for the purpose of conserving and preserving, studying, interpreting, assembling and exhibiting to the public for its instruction and enjoyment objects and specimens of educational and cultural value, including artistic, scientific (whether animate or inanimate), historical and technological material.

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Selected Non-NARA Presidential Museums in the U.S.

Site/Museum/House AttendanceAdult

Admission FT StaffPT

Staff Volunt.Abraham Lincoln Presidential Library and Museum, Springfield, IL 800,000 $10.00 N/A N/A N/AFDR's Little White House State Historic Site, Warm Springs, GA 100,000 $7.00 20 1 3Harry S. Truman Little White House Museum, Key West, FL 65,000 $12.00 12 4 0Andrew Johnson National Historic Site, Greeneville, TN 48,553 $0.00 9 3 0Lincoln Museum, Fort Wayne, IN 46,151 $4.99 12 6 130Rutherford B. Hayes Presidential Center, Fremont, OH 37,502 $10.50 20 22 150Abraham Lincoln Library and Museum, Harrogate, TN 17,500 $5.00 5 2 2Benjamin Harrison Presidential Site, Indianapolis, IN 15,903 $6.00 6 3 65Ronald Reagan Boyhood Home, Dixon, IL 12,797 $5.00 1 1 40Surrat House Museum (Lincoln), Clinton, MD 10,414 $3.00 2 5 40James Monroe Museum and Memorial Library, Fredericksburg, VA 10,000 $5.00 2 17 4Average 105,802 $6.23 9 6 43Median 37,502 $5.00 8 4 22 Source: AAM 2008 Official Museum Directory and files of Lord Cultural Resources.

2.2.3 President Ulysses S. Grant Related Attractions

There are a number of historic sites related to President Grant throughout the United States, as indicated in the table below. These are operated by various entities; some are State Historic Sites (as is the Grant Home in Galena or the Grant Cottage State Historic Site in New York), some by the National Park Service (the National Historic Site in St. Louis) and some by private not-for-profit organizations. Attendance: The average and median is about 27,000 and 6,000. The highest-drawing Grant site is the Grant home in Galena, which reports some 85,000 annual visitors. More will be provided on the Grant home in the relevant section below. Other Grant sites do not attract visitation at this level. The next highest-attended attraction is the Grant National Historic Site in St. Louis which operates a recently-opened visitor center and a museum. The figure given is for the museum attendance. The data reveal that Grant sites outside of Galena do not attract substantial numbers of visitors – likely because of the distance in time between Grant’s success in the Civil War/Presidency and the present day, and of course the small scale of most of the attractions. Another factor in low attendance is the historic house nature of some of the sites, which are typically static attractions and draw fewer visitors. According to some market-knowledgeable individuals interviewed for this study, the Grant name is not a major draw for the general visitor and visitors believe that Grant’s connection to Galena is minimal. Yet, on the opposite side of the coin, the Grant Home in Galena is the highest-drawing Grant related attraction in the nation despite a static visitor experience. In this case attendance is likely boosted by high tourist visitation. The h gh numbers of visitors at this s te also suggest a tourist market profile that is amenable to visiting history–related attractions.

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Admission Charges: Admission charges for these sites are low. The Grant Home, as a State site, is a free-admission attraction, but requests a suggested donation of $3 per visitor. The National Historic Site in St. Louis is also a free-admission attraction. Other Grant sites charge a nominal fee. Staffing: The 2008 AAM Directory reports that the Grant Home has 5 full-time and 7 part-time staff, but an interview with the Director of the site in Galena revealed this information to be inaccurate; due to State cutbacks the actual figure is more like 2 full time and 1 part-time staff member. Other attractions are minimally staffed with the exception of the Grant National Historic Site in St. Louis with 10 full-time and 15 part-time staff. Selected Grant Sites in the United States

Site/Museum/MemorialReported

Attendance Adult

AdmissionFT

StaffPT

Staff Volunt.Ulysses S. Grant Home State Historic Site, Galena, IL* 84,770 $3.00 5 7 15Ulysses S. Grant National Historic Site, St. Louis 40,000 $0.00 10 15 20Ulysses S. Grant Birthplace State Memorial, Point Pleasant, OH 6,000 $2.00 N/A N/A N/AUlysses S. Grant Boyhood Home and Ulysses S. Grant Schoolhouse State Memorial, Georgetown, OH 2,500 $3.00 N/A N/A N/AUlysses S. Grant Cottage State Historic Site, Saratoga Springs, NY 2,500 $2.50 3 0 25

Average 27,154 $2.10 6 7 20 Median 6,000 $2.50 5 7 20

Source: AAM 2008 Official Museum Directory, various press reports and interviews with institutions.*Admission figure is suggested donation amount.

2.3 The Experience of Museum-Related Attractions in the Tri-State Region

Available market and financial data regarding the existing museums marketplace in the region (including Dubuque County in Iowa and Jo Daviess County in Illinois) are presented in two parts. The first is from data for regional institutions as reported in the 2007 Official Museum Directory. The second part is from interviews carried out by Lord Cultural Resources in this study and focus on two major local attractions.

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2.3.1 The Museum Marketplace in the Galena-Dubuque Area

The Table below provides market data for a selection of regional museum attractions. Some sites, such as the Elihu Washburne house and the Elizabeth History Museum are not included due to lack of data. At this time ongoing budget cuts at the Illinois state level have forced the closure of the Apple River Fort and have resulted in staff and operating hours cutbacks at the Grant Home, Washburne House and other State-operated sites. Thus data reported to the AAM for the 2008 Official Museum Directory may be outdated. The following key points emerge: Attendance: Average and median attendance is about 71,000 and 34,000 respectively. The two highest-drawing institutions are both in Dubuque – the National Mississippi River Museum and Aquarium and the Dubuque Arboretum – both of which are museum types popular with resident family audiences and tourists alike. Admission Charges: Regional admission charges are low with the average at just $3.88. The most expensive attraction – the National Mississippi River Museum and Aquarium – also offers the most advanced visitor experience and illustrates the power of live animals and a natural history theme to draw visitors despite higher-than-average charges. Admission charge recommendations for the new history-related attraction in Galena will need to be carefully considered in what is a low-admission charge environment. Staff Levels: Because of the small scale of most of the museums and sites, staff levels are low at an average of 8 and a median of 5 full-time employees. Regional attractions rely heavily on part-time staff which may reflect the seasonal nature of visitation in the area. Selected Regional Museum-Related Attractions

AttractionReported

AttendanceAdult

AdmissionFT

StaffPT

Staff Volunt.National Mississippi River Museum and Aquarium, Dubuque 265,000 $10.50 30 70 205Dubuque Arboretum and Botantical Gardens 100,000 $0.00 N/A N/A 361Ulysses S. Grant Home State Historic Site, Galena 84,770 $3.00 5 7 15Mathias Ham House, Dubuque 36,000 $5.00 1 8 100Old Market House State Historic Site, Galena 32,395 $0.00 5 7 15Apple River Fort State Historic Site, Elizabeth* 25,000 $3.00 N/A N/A N/AGalena-Jo Daviess Historical Society and Museum 13,945 $4.50 2 3 25Dubuque Museum of Art 9,447 $5.00 4 3 28

Average 70,820 $3.88 8 16 107Median 34,198 $3.75 5 7 28

Source: AAM 2008 Official Museum Directory.*Recently closed due to State budget cuts. Admission charge was suggested donation.

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2.3.2 Focus on Two Important Local Institutions

There are a number of history-related attractions currently on offer in the tri-state area. In this section we focus on two of the most important museum-related institutions – the Grant Home in Galena, and the National Mississippi River Museum and Aquarium.

2.3.2.1 National Mississippi River Museum and Aquarium

Originally opened as the Steamboat Museum in 1991, the National Mississippi River Museum opened in expanded and updated form in 2003. The Museum is an interesting mix of natural history, science and human history all focused on the Mississippi River. The Museum is housed in a 62,000 gross sq. ft. building with some 24,000 net sq. ft. of exhibit space. The exhibition capital cost was $6 million which over the exhibit space equals a per sq. ft. exhibition cost of $250.

The Official Museum Directory reports attendance at about 265,000 annual visitors, but an interview with leadership at the Museum reveals that while opening year attendance was in the 300,000 range, actual stabilized annual attendance is in the range of 180,000 to 220,000 visitors. Admission charges are as follows:

Adults $10.50 Seniors (65+) $9.50 Youth (7-17) $8.00 Children (3-6) $4.50

Most of the Museum’s attendance comes from the resident market in the immediate tri-state area (about 51% of total attendance), with an additional 40% coming from the tourist market (defined as beyond two hours’ drive time). School groups account for about 11% of the total, which is slightly below average but reflects the small size of the resident market and older market demographics in the region. Indeed, over 50% of the Museum’s attendance is composed of adults, which is high for this museum type; only 36% of attendance is composed of children, and this figure includes those children who come as part of a school group. A very high 23% of attendance is composed of senior citizens and this older visitation profile likely contributes to higher than average retail revenue per head at the gift shop – a reported $2 per visitor which is significantly higher than the norm fora natural history museum and a posit ve indicator for retail performance at the new institution in Galena.

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Major funding for the Museum was from the State of Iowa with $4 million raised from competitive grants, $9.5 million raised from local sources and some $4-5 million received in in-kind goods and services. The total project cost was about $56 million.

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Staffing levels are currently 33 full time employees and a total FTE (full-time equivalent) allocation of about 50. One issue with opening was overstaffing; in Year 1 the Museum had some 66 FTEs and with the attendance decline in subsequent years some employees had to be laid off, which created both a public relations and public perception problem in Dubuque. The recommendation for the new institution in Galena is to provide a high allocation of part-time positions to ach eve flexibility for seasonal operations and to avoid the bad press that can come with post-opening layoffs.

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2.3.2.2 Grant Home State Historic Site, Galena

The Grant Home State Historic Site remains one of Galena’s top visitor attractions. Attendance is reported to be in the vicinity of 80,000 to 100,000 per year depending on the source, despite ongoing budget cuts that have forced the reduction of staff from 22 full and part-time staff in 1989 to just 2 full-time and 1 part-time staff member as of December 2008. As noted above, the Grant home in Galena draws far more than any other Grant-related site in the nation. The high attendance figure is related to Galena’s high tourist visitation, the authenticity of the site, and the fact that it is the highest-profile museum-related attraction in the immediate area, as well as to the nature of Galena’s tourism market, which fits the profile of a “cultural tourism” market (see chapter 3) in that it is older, wealthier and better educated – and which is therefore more likely to visit history-related sites. In addition, the décor and furnishings of the house make it very much a destination for those interested in decorative arts, which again very much fits the nature of the existing tourism market to Galena. In other words, it may be this “fit” with visitor preferences as much as the power of the Grant name that attracts people to the site. Plans are in place for a Visitor Center to be built on the grounds of the home to give a much fuller treatment of Grant’s life and times. This Center is projected to cost $10 million and will have three levels of some 6,000 sq. ft. each – one of which will be exhibition space, one of which will be a research center, and one of which will provide collection storage space for the site’s collection of approximately 30,000 artifacts. Although plans have been in place for some time, implementation is on indefinite hold due to financial cutbacks at the State level which forced the closing of some 12 other State historic sites in the fall of 2008. The key issue with regard to plans for a Grant-themed attraction at the Galena-Jo Daviess Historical Society and Museum is duplication, which will have a negative impact on both community relations between the sites and on fundraising. While all agree that there is room in the Grant story for all (depending on the concept) leadership at the Grant Home are concerned about duplication in terms of the name of the new institution and in terms of concept. But the proposed “gateway” concept for the new institution (as described in chapter 1 and in the assumptions in chapter 4) was well-received, provided the experience is not solely about Grant and carves out an interpretive niche that leaves the detailed “life and times” story to the Grant home. In any case the details of the interpretive concept must be worked out in a future planning process; for the purposes of this process, this report sets out the principles according to which the relationship between the two attractions’ concepts should be developed in the broadest sense.

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2.4 Comparables Analysis

The following four museums and historical centers were chosen as comparable institutions for the Galena Jo-Daviess Historical Society according to several criteria:

Two of the institutions are local or regional history museums that have undergone expansions or new building projects in recent years;

Two are Presidential-themed institutions.

Local history museums analyzed for this section include: The Geneva History Center (GHC) is located in Geneva, Illinois. It is a non-profit organization founded in 1943. GHC presents programming, exhibitions, and an archive about local history. In 2004, it relocated from inside a park to a site in downtown Geneva as an entirely new structure with a successful fundraising and public awareness campaign. The Littleton Historical Museum (Littleton Museum) is located in Littleton, Colorado. It is a city-managed and -operated institution, fully funded by municipal dollars. In 2004, it expanded its space from 9,000 square feet to 36,000 square feet. In addition to the Museum, the site also includes an historical working farm, with a schoolhouse, a blacksmith shop, and a living history farm. The Presidential-themed institutions analyzed for this section include: The Franklin Delano Roosevelt Presidential Library and Museum (FDR Library) is located in Hyde Park, New York. It is approximately 100 miles from New York City and depends on the New York metropolitan area for a majority of its visitors – much as the Galena area depends on Chicago. Also on its site are the Henry A. Wallace Visitor Center and the estates devoted to Eleanor Roosevelt, including Val-Kill. Besides the Visitor Center that is part of the FDR Library, the institutions are managed separately but are all operated by the National Park Service. The Library houses the President’s papers among its 17 million-item paper archives.

The Abraham Lincoln Presidential Library and Museum (Lincoln Library) is located in Springfield, Illinois. It is a state agency and was founded in 2004, built as an entirely new structure. When it was conceived, the building was to serve as the centerpiece for all Lincoln-related sites in the State, although the goals changed over the history of the project.

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2.4.1 Capital Projects

What follows is a description of the capital projects undertaken by each of the institutions under analysis, followed by an assessment of their market and financial performance.

2.4.1.1 Geneva History Center

The Geneva History Center relocated its museum from inside Wheeler Park to downtown Geneva and, in the process, tripled its original space to total 17,000 square feet. In the mid 1990s, it became clear that the building was too small. Additionally, the location was not readily visible from the road, a perceived hindrance to reaching the Center’s attendance potential. Before embarking on the project, it financed a feasibility study that included fundraising potential and strategy. The new Center offers two exhibition spaces, with 3,000 square feet reserved for permanent exhibits and 950 square feet for its temporary gallery. Its lobby space is approximately 1,000 square feet. A gift store situated in the front of the Center is approximately 475 square feet. Additionally, there is a public research space for families to learn about their community and genealogy.

2.4.1.2 FDR Presidential Library and Museum

The FDR Library expanded its facility to include a new conference center in 2003, the Henry A. Wallace Center. The inception of the project came from President Bill Clinton who visited the site and proposed a major capital refurbishment. Senator Patrick Moynihan secured the majority of the funding, with a minimal percentage of support derived from fundraising. Total exhibition space at the Presidential Library is 12,000 net sq. ft.

2.4.1.3 Abraham Lincoln Presidential Library and Museum

The Lincoln Library was founded in 2004. At the time, city leaders felt that Springfield lacked a central visitor center to properly introduce them to the Lincoln sites around the city and the surrounding region. When the project was being proposed, the Governor in office was a supporter of history museums and made it possible for the project to be a state-run facility under the Illinois Historic Preservation Agency. Though the “Presidential Library and Museum” title is usually reserved for sites operated by the National Park Service, the Lincoln Library was named as such because of the governor’s fondness for history.

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The Lincoln Library includes a museum, an adjoining library, and a green space with visitor amenities like parking, a food space (designed for a catering facility to operate, but currently empty), and a connection to Union Station. This physical proximity to the Station was an effort to serve as the gateway to other Lincoln sites throughout the State. The Museum is 110,000 square feet, with some 45,000 net sq. ft. of exhibition space; the Library is 98,000 square feet. The Union Station and green campus make up an additional 30,000-40,000 square feet.

2.4.1.4 Littleton Historical Museum

The Littleton Museum decided to expand after two years of focus groups with members of the community. At the time, it was a 9,000 square foot facility that had once been a private home. It was limited in terms of infrastructure to upgrade. The institution needed additional exhibition space to display its permanent collection. The project quadrupled the size of the facility to 36,000 square feet. Its permanent exhibition space increased from 3,000 square feet to 9,000 square feet. The new facility now offers 4 galleries of temporary exhibitions, approximately 3,500 square feet. Its retail space totals 225 square feet and is located at the front of the building. Additionally, its facility has an atrium that measures 800-1000 square feet and an education wing that measures 10,000-11,000 square feet. The projected cost of the project was $3.5 million. The actual cost was approximately $10 million. 2.4.2 Attendance Analysis

The following chart lists total attendance for the four institutions studied and their percentage breakdown by category. It should be noted that the attendance figures given in the table below are interviewees’ estimates, not official reported figures. Most surprising is the discrepancy between the officially reported figure for the Abraham Lincoln Presidential Library – reported at 800,000 in the AAM’s 2008 Official Museum Directory – and the interviewee’s estimate of 175,000 visitors, neither of which is likely to be accurate. The Museum reported about 489,000 visitors in its first few months of operation (from April 19 to Dec. 31, 2005. By the end of its first complete year the Museum reported attendance of about 600,000 visitors and a drop in subsequent years would be expected as this is the normal situation for almost all new museum-related attractions. But regardless of the actual current number (whatever that is) the information from the interview conducted for this project at least reveals the likelihood that attendance has fallen substantially after opening year, which as stated is a normal situation. For the two history museums analyzed here, their facility expansions produced large increases in attendance. In Geneva, the History Center’s completion doubled attendance from 13,000 to 26,000, while in Littleton attendance increased from 100,000 to 135,000 as a result of the capital project.

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Attendance by Category

Tourists Residents Schools

FDR Library 75% 9% 16% 115,000 Geneva Historical Center (information pending) 26,000 Littleton Museum 40% 40% 20% 135,000 Lincoln Library 56% 4% 40% 175,000

AVERAGE 57% 18% 25% 112,750

Percentage of Total AttendanceTotal

Attendance

Source: Interviews with key informants. All figures are interviewees’ estimates. Taking these numbers at face value, average attendance for the institutions is 113,000 visitors, with the breakdown among tourists, residents, and schools varying dramatically (since each serve dramatically different markets). Both presidential libraries do not receive more than minimal resident attendance, which suggests that this museum type is more attractive to tourists. The Littleton Museum is the most evenly divided amongst the categories, with 40% each for tourists and residents and the remaining 20% for school groups – which is in fact near the ideal in terms of visitor profile.

2.4.2.1 Residents

The FDR Library has difficulty attracting visitors from the community. Disregarding school groups, residents make up 9% of its total attendance. Partly the reason is due to the Library’s content. Even though it strives to present topics with a non-partisan emphasis, year-round residents who predominantly vote Republican perceive the Library as being Democratic and, therefore, are not attracted to its content or programming. But this is an intensely local issue. Whatever the actual attendance figure, it is the opinion of the interviewee that the Lincoln Library has not met its attendance goals despite its efforts in exhibition planning and an attractive new building. It is estimated that approximately 4% of visitors are residents, which is extraordinarily low and may relate to the perception of high admission fees or a lack of changing content. An inadequate effort to involve Springfield residents and secure their “buy-in” from the early planning stages may also be a reason for the current lack of interest in the Library. The Littleton Museum offers attractions and programs for children and families, including a hands-on children’s area in its new facility. The increase in resident attendance to 35-40% of total visitors is also due to frequently changing exhibit ons in its temporary exhibit on space as well as its active adult programming.

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2.4.2.2 School Groups

The FDR Library attracts 18,000 students as part of school groups every year. This represents 16% of its total attendance. The Library depends heavily on its proximity to the New York metropolitan area for school group attendance, with groups traveling over 100 miles to visit the site. The Director believes that her institution’s recent innovation in streamlined scheduling with school groups in coordination with the other attractions on the property has been a key driver of increased school group attendance. The Lincoln Library depends on school groups for about 40% of its total attendance, which is much higher than average and reveals the limitations of Springfield in terms of its small resident market and limited tourist market. The Littleton Museum has been 100% booked in terms of school groups. That has not changed since prior to the expansion. It is an increase in staffing, not extraspace, that has allowed the school group program to expand.

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2.4.2.3 Tourists

The visitation profile for the FDR Library is similar to the tourist market that currently visits Galena. The Library receives a mostly adult audience, with the average visitor aged 49 years old. The FDR Library’s visitors are well-educated, the majority of whom have a college degree or higher. Approximately 75% of its visitors are tourists. Most visitors to the FDR Library are from the metropolitan New York area, which includes New Jersey and Connecticut. People from this area constitute approximately 60% of all visitors. Other visitors, particularly international visitors, are researchers interested in using the archives on the site. The FDR Library benefits from tourists to the area who come for the Fall foliage in September and October. It is far more common for visitors to the FDR Library to come as part of a larger regional visit to the Hudson River Valley than coming specifically for the Library itself – in other words, the Library is one part of a “package” of area attract ons. The Lincoln Library hoped to become the welcome center for all of the sites related to Abraham Lincoln and, in effect, elevate the visitor experience as a centralized center of information. This was to have an economic effect on the city and the region by drawing in additional tourists. However, poor strategic follow-through resulted in no net increase to tourists in the area and it is believed that the Lincoln Library relies on the same set of tourists that were coming to the area prior to its construction – which suggests that even a major new project cannot on its own convert a weak tourist market to a strong one if there is no critical mass of attract ons already present, except in rare circumstances (Guggenheim Bilbao, for example). It is estimated that 56% of visitors are tourists. The Littleton Museum attracts tourists from a 100 miles radius within the Denver metropolitan area. Since the expansion, there has been a 35-40% increase in this category, suggesting that the expansion is drawing tourists who were already visiting Littleton for other reasons. This is posit ve for the Ga ena-Jo Daviess Historical Society, which simi arly has a substantial potential tourist market already visiting the area.

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2.4.3 Earned Revenue

Earned income is derived from a combination of sources, depending on business strategy and building capacity. The comparable institutions studied depend on admissions fees, rental fees, archive usage, gift store, and programming. The FDR Library earns about 18% (about $1 million) of its total annual revenues of $5.5 million. Yearly revenue from its retail efforts total $500,000. Admission fees account for $125,000 of total revenues at the FDR Library. Admission to the FDR Library, which includes the Library and the Roosevelt Home, is $14, with children under age 16 admitted free. A small percentage of total revenues for the FDR Library is derived from rental fees. The Geneva History Center is a free admission institution but asks for a voluntary donation from visitors which generates minimal revenue. The History Center derives revenue of $13,000 annually from its gift store. Because of its free-admission strategy, the Geneva History Center derives its revenue mostly from fundraising and earned income. Its annual appeal and major Spring event generate approximately $50,000. Additional fundraising generates $25,000. Rental revenue is approximately $5,000. Grant support generates $10,000-$15,000 per year. Its research services earn $3,000 per year. Finally, interest from its endowment generates $10,000. The Littleton Museum does not fundraise for its operating expenditures and admission is free. As a municipally-operated institution, the Museum enjoys significant City funding. However, the Friends of Littleton Historical Museum does raise between $30,000-$60,000 annually for programming. No revenue information is available from the Abraham Lincoln Presidential Library and Museum. 2.4.4 Expenses

The following chart displays the operating budgets for the four comparable institutions studied as well as their staff levels.

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Total Operating Budget and Staff Count for Comparable Institutions

Total Operating

BudgetStaff

(FTEs)FDR Library $5,500,000 23Geneva Historical Center $300,000 6Littleton Museum $1,358,000 16.5Lincoln Library $11,000,000

AVERAGE $4,539,500 15 Source: Interviews with key informants. Lincoln Library staffing levels are not available. The budgets and levels of staffing vary widely among the institutions. Increase in staff levels is only weakly correlated with increase in budget. The vast majority of the Lincoln Library’s operating budget is derived from state funding. As a state agency, its personnel are all state employees. Because the Littleton Museum is a city-run organization, utilities, printing, postage, and telephone costs are covered by the City of Littleton. Previous to the expansion, the Museum’s budget was $1.2 million. After the expansion, the budget has increased to $1.4 million, due mostly to programming. The Director estimates that the expansion has increased utilities costs seven-fold, but such cost increases are not reflected in the Museum’s budget since these costs continue to be covered by the municipality. 2.4.5 Exhibitions & Programming

2.4.5.1 Exhibitions

The majority of the comparable institutions change their exhibitions regularly and offer new attractions for residents and tourists to encourage repeat visits to the sites. The FDR Library mounts a new exhibit every two years. The Library relies on a part-time employee for marketing. It maintains an active email list to advertise events as well as regular attention from the local press. Upon its expansion and relocation, the Geneva History Center also focused on refurbishing its exhibition program. The Center consulted a professional exhibition planner to help with its permanent collection exhibitions, set to remain on view for ten years which is a normal lifespan. It mounts two shows a year in its temporary space.

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The Lincoln Library’s experience is well known. Project planners invested great effort into creating an exciting exhibition space and visited Disney World to understand the potential for entertaining exhibitions and experiences. It consulted with an exhibition planning firm to design a family-oriented, high-tech space that would interpret history in an engaging way. This is a much more entertainment-oriented approach than is normally seen at Presidential Libraries or other history museums, and has distinguished it from other museums of its kind. But the approach has also been a source of controversy, with some protesting the “Disneyfication” of the Lincoln story and the sacrifice of historically accurate content with speculative stories regarding Lincoln’s life. (The Museum does make it clear when a story being presented cannot be confirmed by historians.) The Littleton Museum’s expansion now houses a temporary gallery that changes exhibits 3-4 times a year. Its fine arts gallery mounts four shows a year as well as one self-curated show.

2.4.5.2 Programming

In addition to exhibitions, programming is tied with the expansive public mission that inspired these institutions’ capital projects. The following are examples of the types of programs that these institutions have created. The FDR Library’s annual Roosevelt Reading Festival is organized annually in June. The one-day Saturday event features book readings and signings by approximately a dozen authors who have published books with the aid of the Library’s archives research in the past year. The event attracts 700 people. The FDR Library hosted an historic USO Show recently, with period costumes and entertainment from World War II. Additionally, the Library is the site of World War II re-enactments by external historical societies. Throughout the year, the FDR Library regularly hosts book readings and signings from noted authors on topics related to President Roosevelt and Eleanor Roosevelt. The majority of these events are offered free to the public. The Geneva History Center has reached out to local vendors and government employees by holding training sessions about local history so individuals speaking with tourists can be more familiar with Geneva’s background. The Littleton Museum’s focus group results prior to its expansion revealed that the community wanted more programming for adults. As a result, it included a lecture hall in its design. Annually, it hosts approximately seven speakers from the Smithsonian Affiliate program, of which it is a member. Local and regional speakers are also invited throughout the year. Additionally, it hosts an author series with approximately 12 authors visiting a year, and it is th s programming focus on adults that has been one of the primary drivers of increased residentmarket attendance as outlined above.

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2.4.6 Funding and Fundraising

The cost for the Geneva History Center project was $1.6 million. Funding was made possible by a combination of grants from family foundations, county contributions, and private funds, which provided the majority of funding. The Lincoln Library was built over the course of three governors taking and leaving office. As such, there were delays in funding and construction because the site was dependent on state budgetary allocations. The total cost of the building was $250 million. The Lincoln Library was overwhelmingly funded by state municipal bonds. Additionally, the federal government contributed $50 million; and the City of Springfield contributed $10 million. Once the project broke ground, a private foundation was established, mostly to fund ongoing programming. The Littleton Museum’s expansion was 100% City-funded. No private funds were raised. 2.4.7 Key Conclusions

The following key conclusions emerge from the comparables analysis: • Presidential-themed museums must broaden their scope to attract visitors:

Both the Lincoln and FDR Libraries search for broader themes and exciting ways of presenting historical materials to attract visitors. The FDR Library Director warned against depending on the legacy of a President directly as the bas s for sustaining attendance levels. She said it was “a battle get people to come” and that Presidential Libraries are “boring” for many people. For a lesser-known President (or one that people have less personal connection with), attracting visitors becomes all the more difficult. Recognizing the reluctance of people to visit what they perceive to be a staid repository of papers and artifacts, the Lincoln Library sought to present historical objects using interactive features and technological innovations in its exhibitions. While the name “Abraham Lincoln Presidential Library and Museum” may be a liability because it transmits the image of a “typical” presidential library, the dynamic visitor experience that is actually found there apparently (in the early years after opening at least) overcame any such liability and once again shows that a quality visitor experience is the primary factor in generating attendance and the best form of marketing. The FDR Library has presented exhibitions with themes that transcend President Roosevelt’s life and terms in office. Its current exhibition is on the Hundred Days as a tool that presidents use to present their policies immediately upon entering office. Presenting such an exhibit upon the inauguration of a new president has larger implications than exclusively about President Roosevelt’s life and times.

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To the extent that a Presidential Library does have the power to attract visitors, a “palpable presence” of the President must be in evidence, according to the FDR Library Director. The site must be considered authentic and have a direct relationship with the President. This is an issue for Galena, since the Grant Home will likely be seen to have more claim to authenticity than the Historical Society, lending credence to the gateway concept (see chapter 1 for a detailed description) and broader themes that have emerged from theAssumptions Workshop conducted for this process.

• For local historical societies, broadening the scope will increase the visitor base: Both the Littleton Museum and the Geneva Historical Center offer content and programming that expand beyond the history of their immediate communities. While local community history remains the main focus, marketing, press attention, and exhibitions present regional content and themes. They are particularly attractive for those nearby communities lacking a comparable center of their own. The Littleton Museum revamped the curriculum for its school groups to meet statewide standards, beyond the county-wide standards that its former program followed. As a result, school groups come from a much wider distance to attend the museum.

• Cultivating close ties to the community is vital to long-term support: Without exception, all of the directors whose institutions unveiled a major capital project linked their present-day success in attracting residents to cultivating community members from the inception of its capital projects and beyond the grand opening. Prior to the projects’ completions, relationship-building centered on community-level fundraising efforts. Post-completion, cultivating the community has translated to welcoming local service groups to use its facilities for a reduced fee; collaborating with community organizations on programming; offering hours of free admission during the week; and/or establishing evening hours to attract post-business day visitors. According to our interview process, the Lincoln Library represents a negative example of the importance of this point. According to the interviewee, the institution has failed to meet its attendance estimates due partly to a lack of interest on the part of resident market. The former Director believes that the Library did reach out to community members early on, but then sought to charge unaffordable rates to community groups who wanted to use their facilities for meetings, formed a board that was largely from Chicago (and therefore did not represent the sentiments of the local community), and defined its success based on national attention over community relevance.

• Leadership among staff and board needs to have a broad vision: The need for inspiring leadership in staff and the board is a theme that resounded through the interviews at these institutions. With a larger/new facility comes greater responsibility to market, collaborate, and be innovative. Both the Board President and the Director have to embrace the challenge that a new capital project brings with it. They must expand their vision regarding the relevancy of their institution to include broader audiences. For example, after it expanded its facility, the Littleton Museum sought to become a Smithsonian affiliate, now the only affiliate in the State of Colorado. As a result, it offers enticing traveling exhibits and lectures, thus broadening the offerings to its public.

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• The building alone does not make a capital project succeed. In addition to a refurbished or larger space, programming and outreach as well as a variety of engaging exhibitions will drive attendance and future involvement in the institution. Even though subsequent programming has not been community-oriented for the most part, the Lincoln Library’s initial efforts to engage the public in the capital project were effective. Before the project was fully designed, the Library Steering Committee held charrettes with students and teachers of the nearby high school to discuss the potential uses and design of the facility, although these were reportedly ended once funding was secured.

• A new project must have a focused marketing strategy. A new building will likely generate attention from the press. However, the attention will be brief and, likely, superficial. A focused marketing strategy includes a cultivated effort at engaging local reporters over several months before the project is completed.

• Getting the word out early is important. Because of word of mouth is the single most effective marketing tool for a cultural institution, efforts at an informational campaign need to start early. Board members and staff should meet with leaders of the community; local service organizations; educational institutions; and major corporations to involve them in the process by soliciting their feedback.

• A major capital project should be the result of thorough understanding of visitor needs. Either formally or informally, the comparable institutions studied carefully assessed the needs of its present and potential visitor base to understand what gap a new expansion or building might fill. Every institution that undertook a major expansion used established needs in the community as a starting point in the design of the facility as well as the pitch when fundraising.

This concludes our Contextual and Comparables Analysis. The following chapter, Existing and Potential Markets Analysis, builds on this chapter by analyzing existing markets for the Galena-Jo Daviess Historical Society and Museum and potential markets for the expanded Museum in its revitalized form.

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3. Existing and Potential Markets

In this chapter we analyze existing and potential markets for the Galena-Jo Daviess County Historical Society. The analysis is based on a review of available data and direction emerging from the assumptions workshop and interview process.

3.1 Existing Markets for the Galena-Jo Daviess County Historical Society and Museum

Although the goal of the project is a new home for the Historical Society that will include a major Ulysses S. Grant-related component, in order to generate projections for the new facility it is necessary to understand the base level of existing markets for the Museum including its operational and financial patterns. Our analysis is as set out below: • Space and Facilities: The existing Museum is housed in an 1858 mansion

comprising some 11,000 gross sq. ft., of which about 6,575 net sq. ft. is public space and some 5,500 net sq. ft. is exhibition space. Staff report two areas for temporary exhibition space comprising a total of 455 sq. ft. (one area of 375 sq. ft. and another of 80 sq. ft). These temporary exhibition spaces are included as part of the total 5,500 net sq. ft. outlined above.

• Attendance Totals: The Museum drew about 12,700 visitors in 2007, about 10,000 of which visited the Museum and the balance visited the free-admission blacksmith shop. This is not a substantial attendance total and points to access, site, visitor experience and other weaknesses.

• School Group Attendance: School groups account for about 15% of all on-site visitors (about 1,900 students per year), which is at the low end of the common 15-25% range. Interestingly most school visitors come from outside Jo Daviess County, meaning that they are likely visiting the Museum as part of a field trip to Galena, but also suggesting that local school groups see little value in visiting.

• Origin of Visitors: Staff estimates show that only 15% of all visitors come from within a 50-mile radius – just 2,000 annual visitors – an indication of a small resident market and the fact that tourists are a much larger market from which to draw. Some 70% of all visitors estimated to come from other parts of Illinois, Iowa and Wisconsin. Other Americans account for about 14% of visitation and perhaps 1% are international visitors. While residents are likely to respond more favourably to a new Historical Society and Museum than is currentlythe case, obviously the focus for the revitalized Historical Society and Museum must be on the tourist market.

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• Age of Visitors: The existing Museum appeals to older market segments, with about 70% of visitors over the age of 40. Of non-school visitors, only 5% are children under 12. By party composition, some 90% of visitors are adults arriving without children. These data reflect the demographics of residents of Galena ( median age of 44 years versus the national median of 35 years (2002); 22.3 % of population over 65 years, compared to 17.9% in Jo Daviess County and 12.4% nationally and on the other end of the age spectrum, 21% under 17 years, compared to 25.4% in Jo Daviess County, and 25.7% nationally). It also reflects the demographics of the tourist market to Galena which is older and less likely to travel with children. In any case this stronger level of appeal to older persons is common for history museums, and is the opposite of the situation with science museums, which tend to draw much larger numbers of young people. The issue is whether the revitalized Museum should attempt to draw more of the young family market with more youth-oriented exhibitions and programs, while recognizing that the existing market demographics skew towards older visitors.

• Repeat Attendance: The existing Museum reports that a very low 25% of visitors are repeat visitors, with some 75% as first-timers. This relates not only to the very small resident market (from which most museums’ repeat visitors are drawn) but also to the other issues regarding the inaccessibility of the Museum and its rather weak visitor experience that have already been discussed. The tourist market to Galena is to a great extent a repeat tourist market (see section 3.2.3), so tourists who visit the Museum on their first visit apparently are not visiting again. A dynamic and changing visitor experiencein the rev talized Museum is a must in order to convince tourists who come to Galena every year to visit the Museum again.

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• Weekday/Weekend Attendance: Some 65% of visitors arrive on weekends, with 35% on weekdays – somewhat higher weekend attendance than one would expect to see normally, but this very much reflects the high levels of weekend tourist arrivals to Galena during the high season.

• Average Length of Stay: Estimated length of stay at the existing Museum ranges from 60 minutes for school, tourist and first-time visitors to just 40 minutes for residents and repeat visitors – again unsurprising given the limitations on the visitor experience.

• Hispanics and African Americans as a Percentage of Total Visitors: Diversity of markets is an important question to explore in terms of the design of the visitor experience – particularly when the visitor experience under consideration relates to the Civil War as is the case here. But currently the Museum attracts very few Hispanic or African American visitors – just 1% and 2% of the total (respectively). While this no doubt relates to existing resident and tourist demographics, the key question to explore is whether the Museum can be an agent in a larger tourism strategy designed to attract more people from these market segments to Galena, particularly given Grant’s role in the liberation of slaves during the Civil War and his support of Reconstruction during his Presidency – and therefore whether the Museum’s concept should be adjusted to be more appealing to African American visitors. Whi e the existing resident and tourist market is overwhelm ngly “white”, such connections should not be ignored in the revitalized Museum’s visitor experience

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• Membership Levels: The Museum has approximately 640 current memberships, of which about 10% are in upper level membership categories. Members, however, do not visit frequently, accounting for only 5% of annual on-site visitors. This implies that membersh p is not motivated by value for money but primarily by love of history and support for the Museum. With regard to membership a goal of the expansion will be increase the number of persons seeking value for money (and thus attendance) and as well as the number of those supporting the Museum on the basis of the greater opportunities to ach eve its mission and mandate.

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3.2 Potential Markets

In this section we consider the implications of the data and interviews regarding potential resident, school and tourist markets for the revitalized institution to be developed in Galena, all with a view to guiding development of the assumptions to appear in the next chapter. 3.2.1 Resident Markets

Although the Jo Daviess County resident market is limited, the resident market is important to all museums and related institutions for the following main reasons:

The resident market is readily accessible and available on a year-round basis Residents can be made aware of the museum more easily than tourists and

advise and accompany visiting friends and relatives to area attractions Residents are more likely to become volunteers, members and donors.

3.2.1.1 Population Size and Projections

The following table offers an overview of population growth trends for Galena, Jo Daviess County, the Dubuque Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), and neighboring states. The data show that regional population levels are projected to grow slowly over the next twenty years, with only modest growth over current figures. The resident market is small and will remain small over the years projected. Hence a focus on attracting the tourist market is obviously key for maxim zing attendance at the revitalized Museum. i

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Total Population Levels and Projections

2000 2006 2010 2025City of Galena 3,460 3,396 N/A N/AJo Daviess County 22,234 22,594 25,472 28,943Dubuque MSA 89,260 92,170 93,420 99,620Illinois 12,439,740 12,868,630 13,158,750 14,436,200Iowa 2,928,460 2,985,910 3,035,320 3,265,290Wisconsin 5,374,430 5,593,960 5,770,300 6,511,910United States 282,193,480 300,085,840 311,843,980 360,186,640Source: 2006 MSA Profile and US Census Bureau.

3.2.1.2 Age and Gender

Galena and Jo Daviess County exhibits an older age profile, with median ages significantly higher than state or national averages. In Galena particularly, its reputation as a retirement town is borne out by the data, with almost a quarter of the population qualifying as senior citizens. Clearly visitor experiences and amenities geared toward older people are important at the revitalized Museum in order to maximize attendance. The area’s older age profile (which also applies to the tourist market) combined with the accessibility problems of the current Museum is one of the main reasons for its rather low attendance. Galena’s population is about 51% female, but in Jo Daviess County women represent less than half the population (about 49%) which is unusual. Nevertheless, women are important because they usually comprise 55-60% or more of museum and other cultural attendance and in fact make up about 55% of visitation at the existing Museum. The female market is more important than the male market for the following main reasons:

Women often make many of the decisions in a household regarding educational experiences for their children.

Women account for a large majority of elementary school teachers who usually make the decisions regarding field trip destinations.

Women tend to make the decisions regarding attractions to visit while on family vacations.

Women account for a large majority of bus tour passengers and trip planners.

Comparative Age Profile, 2006

AgeCity of Galena

Jo Daviess County

Dubuque MSA IL IA WI USA

% Ages 0-17 21.0% 25.4% 25.4% 26.1% 23.9% 23.8% 25.7%% Ages 65 and older 22.3% 17.9% 14.7% 12.1% 14.7% 13.1% 12.4%Median Age 44 41.6 38.7 35.8 37.9 37.7 36.4

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3.2.1.3 Education and Income as Indicators of Potential Attendance

Level of education is the variable with the closest correlation to cultural attendance and participation, as supported by numerous studies. The higher the level of education of the individual the more likely it will be that this person will attend or participate. Like education, household income is an important indicator of potential cultural attendance, but is not as significant an indicator as education. That is, high education, low-income persons are more likely to attend than are persons of high income and low education. Educational attainment figures as cited below are a strong argument supporting the need for educational institutions such as museums, but they are also a negative indicator for likely resident market museum attendance. In general, museums can overcome the reticence to attend if they offer entertainment-oriented experiences and are reasonably priced, but the benefit of catering to the small resident market in this case must be weighed against the benefit of gearing the Museum experience toward the much larger and better educated tourist market. Per capita and household income levels are lower in both the City and the County than state and national averages. While there is need for caution with respect toadmission charges for resident markets, again adm ssion charges will likely begeared toward the wealthier tourist market for whom admission charges will represent less of a barrier (as confirmed during the Nov. 12 Assumptions Workshop) A low-cost membership strategy may be the best way to appeal toresidents and ensure accessibility for those with less ability to pay.

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Education and Income, 2007

Education/IncomeCity of Galena

Jo Daviess County

Dubuque MSA IL IA WI USA

Median Household Income, 2007 $41,207 $46,945 $46,320 $54,124 $47,292 $40,409 $50,233Percentage of Pop over Age 25, bachelor's degree or higher, 2007 12.8% 17.0% 25.8% 29.4% 24.2% 25.4% 27.5%

Source: U. S. Census Bureau

3.2.1.4 Comparative Ethnicity

The tri-state area under consideration in this report remains overwhelmingly “white”, with other ethnicities accounting for only very small minorities. Nevertheless, the United States as a whole continues to grow more diverse, and the visitor experience at the revitalized Museum should highlight where possible historical linkages to other ethnic groups.

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Comparative Ethnicity

RaceCity of Galena

Jo Daviess County

Dubuque MSA IL IA WI USA

White Non-Hispanic (%) 97.5% 98.7% 97.1% 68.5% 93.3% 87.7% 70.1%Black Non-Hispanic (%) 0.3% 0.2% 0.84% 15.3% 2.2% 5.9% 12.5%Hispanic (any race) (%) 0.5% 1.5% 0.12% 12.4% 2.8% 3.6% 12.6%Source: 2006 MSA Profile, W&P Economics; American Fact Finder

3.2.2 School Markets

It is important for all museums to offer programming of particular interest to the school market for the following main reasons:

Education is part of the mandate of all museum-related attractions. For children in lower income households, attending on a field trip may be

the only opportunity to visit a museum. Children brought to museums as part of school field trips often convince

their parents to take them again. School groups often represent 15% to 25% of total attendance at museum-related attractions. At the existing Museum it is currently about 15%. The key determinants for schools to attend on field trips are the size of the student population within a convenient distance, relationship to curriculum, student enjoyment, proximity and cost. Interviews confirmed these are all issues, with the added factor of the impact of state testing that ranks schools for student performance. Illinois state testing requirements (ISAT) drive curriculum content and skills development and Museum programs must show clear curriculum-related outputs.

3.2.2.1 Enrollment Levels

Enrollment levels for the various Jo Daviess County public school districts are provided in the table below. As of the 2005-06 school year, total enrollment stood at about 3,500 students. The largest single school district is the Galena USD, with close to 850 students. While there are a few private schools in the area, the total numbers are not substantial and together the total enrollment comprises a rather small potential school market. The school district in nearby Dubuque is much larger; the Dubuque Comm. School District has over 10,000 students. But security and safety concerns (particularly after Sept. 11, 2001) produced restrictive policies (due largely to insurance concerns) against crossing state lines for field trips for many school groups, and it is possible that such restrictions may limit the number of Dubuque student groups visiting Galena.

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Jo Daviess County School Districts, 2005-06

School District EnrollmentGalena USD 120 841East Dubuque USD 119 657Stockton CUSD 206 653River Ridge CUSD 210 549Warren CUSD 205 493Scales Mound CUSD 211 248Carroll/Jo Daviess/Stephenson Roe 80

Total 3,521Source: National Center for Educational Statistics

3.2.2.2 Curriculum Links

It goes without saying that museum education programs must be linked to State curriculum and standards. This is straightforward with regard to the State’s history curriculum. But an interview with a representative of the Galena School District confirmed that interdisciplinary approaches are very important; if a teacher can expose a class to various subject areas in one visit, they will be more likely to visit an attraction that offers that. In the case of the Galena-Jo Daviess County Historical Society and Museum, it will be advisable to expand school programming beyond history to include science, natural history and art where possible – and to have staff in place to deliver the programming. A greater breadth of perspective in the exhibitions and programs over and above that offered now is recommended. Another positive development is the willingness of the School District to work with the Museum to develop programs and to make the Museum a year-round resource for students, as opposed to a single springtime visit.

3.2.2.3 Student Enjoyment

Field trips have often been selected according to the extent to which they provide hands-on or interactive participation and the School District interviewee confirmed that experiential learning was most effective and desired. With cutbacks in the funds available to schools, there has been a greater emphasis on selecting field trip destinations that are learning-based and age-appropriate in relation to both content and activities, thus offering students higher levels of learning enjoyment. This is rooted in the knowledge that children are more likely to learn if their experience is interesting and enjoyable. Assumptions for the rev talized Museumcall for a much more substantial level of interactivity.

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3.2.2.4 Field Trip Policies and Cost

Galena school students generally take one major field trip per year. Typically the District absorbs the cost of bussing while students absorb per-head charges or costs of admission.

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3.2.3 Tourist Markets

This section considers available data and input from key informants regarding potential tourist markets for Galena, including some potential implications to the planning of and attendance projections for the revitalized Museum.

3.2.3.1 Tourism to Illinois

In 2007 the impact of domestic tourism in Illinois totalled more than $27 billion, generating employment for almost 300,000 people. Overall, Chicago dominates Illinois tourism; Cook County, which is centered by the City of Chicago, leads the state with about $18 billion in expenditures, or 66% of the total domestic tourism expenditure in the state.1

There are many different indices that measure various aspects of tourist visitation and it is unnecessary to restate all such indices here. With that point in mind, what is reproduced below are the most significant data regarding tourism to Illinois that many affect future attendance at the revitalized Galena-Jo Daviess County Historical Society and Museum2: • Visitor Volume: In 2006, Illinois welcomed 91 million domestic visitors. This

represents a record year for tourism in the state. Figures for 2007 reveal a slight drop to 89 million visitors.

• Leisure/Business Split: Of the total domestic tourism visitation, some 21% came primarily for business, while 79% came for leisure. This is a positive statistic for museums, since business visitors have less time and are less likely to visit cultural attractions than leisure visitors.

• International Visitors: International visitors accounted for an additional 1.6 million visitors to the state in 2006. The top markets for international visitors to Illinois were Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Germany and Japan.

• U.S. Market Share: Illinois’ total U.S. market share was 3.13% in 2006, ranking 9th in the U.S. in its share of total domestic travel and 5th in traveler spending.

• Sources of Visitors: In 2006, the top five states providing visitors to Illinois were:

Illinois Wisconsin Indiana Michigan Missouri

• Leisure Spending Per Capita: On average, leisure visitors to Illinois spent $129

per person per day.

• Purpose of Leisure Travel: The primary activities of leisure travelers to Illinois included dining, shopping, touring/sightseeing, entertainment and nightlife.

1 Travel Industry Association, The Economic Impact of Travel to Illinois Counties, 2007 (July 2008) 2 From Illinois Tourism Facts, http://www.tourism.uiuc.edu/itf/facts.asp .

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• Age and Income: The average age of Illinois leisure visitors was 46; the majority was married, and had an annual household income of $74,000 which is significantly higher than the U.S. or state median.

The key implications for the Museum of these data are as follows: Importance of the Midwestern tourism market: The overwhelming number of Illinois visitors come from neighboring states or encompass Illinois residents traveling within their own state. International visitation comprises less than 2% of total tourist visitations to the State, and other data show that often many of these are business visitors who have less time to visit cultural attractions. This suggests a strong need to focus future marketing efforts on regional rather than national or international markets. A Positive Market Profile: Illinois visitors tend to be older and wealthier – corresponding to the demographic profile of cultural tourists, who are much more likely to visit museums and cultural attractions. This in fact is the local experience in Galena (see below). Illinois is a Leisure Destination: About four-fifths of visitors to Illinois are leisure visitors, who tend to stay longer than business visitors and are more likely to visit cultural attractions. Presidential Trails: As a general comment, the tourism outlook in the near term for Illinois is likely positive due to the significant amount of focus on the state related to the election of Barack Obama as President. More importantly, it will bolster the state’s existing focus on promoting local Presidents. Obama represents the latest President to come from Illinois and an Obama trail should be added to the already-existing Presidential Trail tour system which currently focuses on Lincoln, Reagan and Grant (three separate trails). The revitalized Museum should certainly gain additional free publicity by becoming part of the Grant Trail – as of now the Grant Home, downtown Galena and two Galena and Elizabeth wineries are part of the trail.

3.2.3.2 Tourism to Galena and Jo Daviess County

Jo Daviess County ranks 15th of 102 Illinois counties in terms of domestic tourism spending impact at almost $164 million in 2007, which represents a 4% increase over 2006. While a small fraction of the impact generated by Cook County, Jo Daviess County’s relatively high ranking among Illinois counties does point to the importance of Galena within the County as its main tourism driver. Published information as well as an interview with the CVB revealed a number of key points relating to Galena’s tourism market that may have an impact on plans for the revitalized Museum: Visitor Volume: No reliable figures exist regarding the total number of annual visitors to Galena each year. Estimates range from 1.3 million visitors quoted in a 2004 New York Times profile of the area to about 800,000 per year and less. Whatever the exact figure, Galena is undoubtedly a tourist destination far out of proportion to its small size.

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High Repeat Visitation: Galena has very high repeat visitation which has had an impact on the ability of the existing Museum to draw visitation as discussed in section 3.1 above. This suggests the need for dynamic and changing visitor experiences in the revitalized Museum in order to draw these repeat tourist visitors back to the Museum. Group Tourism: Group tourism has reportedly fallen off in recent years due to the cost of accommodation in Galena. Nearby Dubuque has less expensive accommodation which has led to a reduction in time spent in Galena by tour groups. An Adult-Oriented Destination: Typically Galena is visited by senior couples and other older market segments during weekdays and somewhat younger couples on shopping, recreation or romantic getaways on weekends. Galena is not a destination for young families and this is not surprising given the lack of product available in the area that caters to this market segment; in fact, a 2005 visitor survey noted that “the destination is tending toward fewer young family visitors and more adult visitors.” The data suggest that adding child-friendly product tothe Museum’s visitor experience is unlikely to have a significant impact in drawing more young family visitors given existing trends, as well as the percept on of the city which remains that of a more mature getaway locat on.

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Day Trip vs. Overnight Visitors: Currently Galena gets a large number of day-trippers from regional cities but CVB marketing dollars are focused on generating overnight visitation since revenue for tourism marketing is raised via a hotel/motel tax. An additional major attraction in Galena would help encourage more day trip visitors to become overnight visitors.

Diversifying Galena’s Tourism Product: A recent (Nov. 2007) report by Monogram Market Research indicated that a proposed Outdoor Recreational River Trail Road would be successful in Galena; although most visitors come now for indoor activities, there is significant interest in outdoor activities such as bird watching, hiking, gardens and the like – in other words, activities that fit the enthusiasms of the city’s existing tourism market which fits the profile of a cultural tourism market. Significantly, participation in Nat ve American activities ranked highly in the Monogram survey, suggesting that the concept for the Museum should include related experiences. While the report suggests that a slightly younger market may be attracted with such a development, what may also happen is that length of stay and therefore overnight visitation for the existing market will be increased.

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3.3 Analysis of Key Issues Likely to Affect Assumptions

The analysis is chapters 2 and 3 and the on-site work conducted by the consultants in Galena point to a number of key issues that will guide the assumptions to be presented in chapter 4: The Need for a Revitalized County History Museum: The current permanent collection exhibitions are tired and outdated. Although staff are working hard to enliven the experience to the greatest extent possible, the physical limitations of the building and shortages of staff and resources make this a difficult task. Moreover the building is not capable of adequately housing the Historical Society’s excellent collections to the standard expected in a 21st century museum. A New Building Is Required: This observation flows naturally out of the preceding point. The existing Museum is housed in an 1858 mansion on Bench St. that is difficult to access, particularly for the older market segments that currently make up the bulk of visitation to the town and the Museum. But access is just one issue; it is well known that historic houses make notoriously poor museum buildings, due to numerous issues related to functionality, visitor circulation, conservation problems and so on.3 Regardless of the concept chosen for the new Museum, the existing building is inadequate and cannot provide the level of quality that a town with the rich heritage of Galena deserves. The Need to Avoid Duplication with other Grant Sites: There now exists in Galena at least two other sites related to Grant. Interviews confirmed that it will be essential not only to work closely with these other sites to create a networked “critical mass” of heritage experience in the city, but also to avoid duplication of the subject matter. This relates closely to the concept to be recommended: while it is important for fundraising and other purposes to have a concept relating to President Grant, the new Museum must act as a gateway to not only Grant’s life and times (directing people to other sites where appropriate) but also as a gateway to the history and heritage of the tri-state area through the lens of Grant’s experience as per the detailed concept description provided in chapter 1. The Revitalized Museum’s Scope Should be as Broad as Possible: The experience of other institutions in the Contextual and Comparables Analysis in chapter 2 illustrates that a focus on a President is not always a reliable route to viability. Only the most recent and most iconic Presidents draw substantial numbers of visitors and even the FDR Presidential Library, with an iconic (or near-iconic) President close to a major market (New York City) has difficulty drawing large numbers of visitors. Thus the gateway concept that provides an interdisciplinary treatment of regional history through the experience of “Grant in Galena” is supported by the analysis.

3 One of the critical recommendations of Linda F. Grubb and Associates’ Jan. 2008 Architectural Conservation Assessment was “development and implementation of a feasibility study for relocation of the Museum”.

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The Need for a Sophisticated, Adult-Oriented Museum Product: Galena’s resident market exhibits a significantly older profile, as does its tourism market, and the data suggest continuation and solidification of those trends. Thus the visitor experience in the Museum should be geared toward an adult market (including provision of suitable visitor amenities) and, because tourists to Galena fit the profile of the more sophisticated cultural tourist, exhibitions should be of high quality. Art in particular has high appeal to the Galena tourist market and where possible the Museum should take full advantage of collections such as Peace in Union. The Museum is unlikely to see much benefit from providing child- or family-oriented experiences. The Relative Importance of the Tourist Market: The Museum has weak resident market and a limited school market but its tourist market is strong and has much untapped potential. Most tourists come from the large cities to the east and northeast, particularly the “Chicagoland” market but also other nearby day-trip markets such as Madison or Milwaukee. A Tourist Market Amenable to Visiting Cultural Attractions: The Museum has an advantage in that the Galena tourist market is a classic cultural tourist market in that it is older, wealthier and better educated – and therefore more amenable to visiting cultural attractions such as museums. Evidence for this comes from attendance figures for the Grant Home in Galena, which is the highest-attended Grant site in the country and which draws double the attendance of the next most popular Grant site in St. Louis, which is a new visitor center and museum in a much larger market. In the opinion of the consultants, the older cultural tourist markets that frequent Galena may well be attracted by the decorative arts focus of the furnishings within the house at least as much as the power of the Grant name, which helps explain the much greater relative popularity of this Grant site as opposed to others nationwide. This interpretation would be consistent with the research and analysis provided in the Contextual and Comparables Analysis. More evidence appears in the Monogram report (cited above), which indicated that visiting historical sites was the third most important reason given by survey participants for visiting the area – a much higher figure than is normally seen – indicating a strong predisposition to these types of activities.4 In summary, this is a market that should respond well to any cultural attraction which explains the popularity of the Grant Home with its static visitor experience – there is pent-up demand in this market for cultural attractions and the existing Grant Home is the most prominent outlet for this demand. Yet it is a soph sticated market which has high expectations – therefore the visitor experience to be offered will need to be of a high quality in order to attract large numbers of these visitors.

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4 Monogram Market Research, “Jo Daviess County Area Nature Tourism Presentation”, Nov. 12, 2007.

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Overall, the findings presented in chapters 2 and 3 have major implications for the concept to be recommended for the revitalized Galena-Jo Daviess County Historical Society. While a “big vision” and the Presidential connection will be important to attract national-level funding, the contextual and comparables analyses suggest that visitors to Galena will probably be attracted as much (and likely moreso) by a sophisticated, high quality interdisciplinary experience related to history, natural history and especially art as much as the power of the Grant name. This is actually a positive f nding, as it enables the Museum to broaden the concept beyond Grant and therefore avoid duplication and competition with existing Grant sites, as well as draw more visitors. As stated, the focus on Grant may well be more important for attracting broad-based funding support than for attracting visitors.

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This concludes our analysis of existing markets for the Galena-Jo Daviess County Historical Society and Museum and potential markets for the revitalized Museum. In the next chapter we rely on the foregoing analysis and the results of the Nov. 12 Assumptions Workshop and subsequent interview testing process to develop a series of key assumptions on which the attendance and financial projections and economic impact study presented later in this report will be based.

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GALENA-JO DAVIESS COUNTY HISTORICAL SOCIETY Final Report 4. Key Recommendations/Assumptions

4. Key Recommendations/Assumptions Underlying Projections of Attendance, Operating Revenues and Expenses

In order for the projections of attendance, operating revenues and expenses set out in the next chapter to be credible, they must be based on clearly stated and agreed upon assumptions grounded in a common understanding of what it is that is being projected for the revitalized Galena-Jo Daviess County Historical Society and Museum. This chapter sets out key recommendations that are presented as assumptions, which were derived from the research and analysis set out in chapters 2 and 3, direction from the client, feedback from the interview and workshop process, and from the knowledge and experience of the consultants. It must be noted that the assumptions are presented as planning tools that are subject to modification in the future as circumstances change and as decisions are finalized. Future changes to assumptions may require the need to change the attendance, operating revenue and expense projections. Assumptions are set out in this chapter according to the following main headings:

Concept Collections Visitor Experience Space and Facilities Site Staffing and Volunteers Operations and Marketing External Environment Other Assumptions

4.1 Concept

Key concept-related assumptions are as follows: 1. The Galena-Jo Daviess Historical Society will develop a national-level new

museum attraction with a dynamic and interactive experience in Galena.

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2. The Museum’s concept will be developed according to the gateway model, utilizing the experience of President Ulysses S. Grant in Galena as a gateway into the stories of the region. Where appropriate it will also point visitors to other information resources or attractions where they can learn more about various topics as outlined in chapter 1.

3. The concept will not duplicate the exper ence found in the exist ng Grant Home in Galena or in plans for an interpretive center on that site. Rather, the two attractions will be planned in such a way as to complement one another.

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4. The details of the concept will be developed in a future interpretive planning phase.

4.2 Visitor Experience

The visitor experience will be further developed through an interpretive plan, but for the purposes of attendance and revenue projections to come in the next phase of this study the following assumptions can be made: 1. The revitalized Museum will be a national-level attraction and will have

exhibitions and experiences commensurate in quality with an attraction of that status.

2. Exhibitions will be interdisciplinary in nature so as to attract those with a range of interests, emphasizing the following subjects:

Archaeology/ Native American history Natural history of the region Regional history Art

3. The Museum will present an active schedule of public programs and

outreach. Public programs will include lectures, re-enactments, evening films, special events and the like.

4. The Museum will work with local School Districts to develop a curriculum-linked educational program.

5. The Museum will feature an innovative and interactive “minds-on” approach to the exhibits to attract key target markets.

6. There will be an orientation theatre with a high quality theatre experience.

7. Exhibitions will integrate the Museum’s permanent collections and collections on loan from other institutions.

8. A “learn more” kiosk will direct visitors to other attractions in Galena, as well as to further resources on the exhibition themes.

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4.3 Collections

1. The Museum will continue to house and display Galena Jo-Daviess County Historical Society’s existing collections.

2. Collections relating to General Grant will be acquired as pieces become available or will be loaned from other institutions.

3. Overall, future collection development will focus on quality acquisitions and will proceed with a focus on acquiring collections for display purposes only in order to control collections costs.

4.4 Space and Facilities

Appendix B includes the draft space program for a new facility. Key space-related assumptions that will affect the projections include: 1. As out lined in the space program in Appendix B, it is assumed that the total

gross area of the Museum will be 40,572 gsf.

2. Total net space is equal to 33,810 nsf.

3. The Museum will have 10,000 nsf of permanent collection exhibition space.

4. There will be a 2,000 nsf temporary exhibition gallery.

5. Rentable spaces include:

a. A main lobby of 2,000 nsf b. The Orientation Theater of 1,200 nsf c. The Multipurpose Room of 500 nsf

6. The reta l store will comprise some 800 nsf of public space. i

4.5 Site

A key consideration influencing attendance and earned income relates to the environment within which it will operate. While the final site for the Museum has yet to be determined, for the purposes of the projections to come it is assumed that: 1. The revitalized Museum will be located at a site in downtown Galena.

2. It will be easily accessible to visitors including tour buses.

3. It will have a h gh degree of visibility. i

4. It is assumed that access to the site will be clearly marked and well signed.

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4.6 Staffing and Volunteers

1. In addition to the existing staff, the Museum will add a total of 9.5 FTE (full-time equivalent) paid positions:

Education Programmer (1 FTE) Development Director (1 FTE) Grant Writer (1 FTE) Administrative Support (0.5 FTE) Registrar (1.0 FTE) Retail Manager (0.5 FTE) Exhibit Designer/Manager (1 FTE) Exhibit Preparator (1 FTE) Maintenance Staff (1 FTE) Marketing Director/Rental Coordinator (1.0 FTE) Volunteer/Event Coordinator (0.5 FTE)

2. An allocation for seasonal casual and part-time help equivalent to 1 FTE will

be included within the Museum’s annual operating budget.

3. It is assumed that volunteers will continue to assist with the operation of the Museum.

4.7 Operations and Marketing

While the best form of marketing for any museum is the nature and quality of the visitor experience, other factors that affect attendance include various operational factors ranging from admission charges to operating hours. The following assumptions relate to the admission charges and operations of the Museum as well as ways that the revitalized Museum can be marketed and packaged for its potential visitors with other attractions in the Tri-State Region. 4.7.1 Admissions

1. It is assumed that admissions will be as follows: Adult $10.00 Senior (65+)/Youth (13-17) $8.00 Child (1-12) Free School Group (per person) for teacher-guided visits; staff led programs would be extra.

$4.00

Non-school group (average, per person) $6.00 Indirect Paid (members, programs, rentals) Free

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4.7.2 Operating Hours

1. The Museum will be open from 9 AM to 4:30 PM year-round.

2. During the high tourist season (Memorial Day- Columbus Day) the Museum will be open one evening per week until 9 PM.

4.7.3 Branding and Marketing

1. A new name will be developed for the Museum which will include General Grant’s name and which will indicate the new concept behind the Museum, but which will be sensitive to the need to avoid duplication and confusion with existing Grant-related sites in Galena.

2. The revitalized Museum will be marketed as a destination in and of itself, as well as a critical stop within a wider itinerary.

3. The Museum will be packaged with the Presidential Trails itineraries from the Illinois Bureau of Tourism.

4. Marketing strategies will emphasize the packaging of the Museum with otherattract ons in the region to present an integrated critical mass of tourism product for visitors.

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5. Partnership opportunities will be sought with other attractions in Galena for joint programming and special events.

4.7.4 Membership Program

1. There will be an upper-level membership program of nationwide scope, as well as an inexpensive lower-level program aimed at residents to encourage repeat visitation and ensure access for lower-income residents.

4.7.5 Revenue Generation

1. A gift shop will be located in the Museum (800 sf of public space). This will be operated by Museum staff and will have a strong selection of merchandise of appeal to target markets.

2. The Museum’s 2,000 sf lobby as well as its theater and multipurpose spaces will be available for rental for corporate and community events, such as weddings, receptions, meetings and conferences.

3. There will be one additional new special event over and above those already presented by the Historical Society and Museum.

4. The revitalized Museum will not include a food service outlet to avoid competition with Galena’s many restaurants.

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4.8 Capital Campaign

The new Museum will require a new or renovated facility. It is assumed that: 1. Capital funds for construction and exhibitry will be generated through a

combination of private and government sources. The project will be free of debt payable by the Museum and there would thus be no annual outlays for debt service in the operating budget.

2. The capital campaign will include fundraising for an endowment of a

minimum $1 million initially growing to $5 million by Year 1 of operations.

4.9 External Environment

There a range of factors that may impact on the development and operations of the revitalized Museum. Regional developments that may be assumed for implementation by Year 1 of operations of the new Museum include: 1. There will be a new passenger terminal constructed at Dubuque

Regional Airport.

There are a number of additional projects under consideration that cannot be assumed for implementation at this time: 1. The proposed widening and rerouting of Highway 20 is in the advanced

planning stages but cannot be assumed for implementation. 2. The construction of an interpretive center at the Grant Home in Galena cannot

be assumed within the time frame considered by this study. 3. No new parking facilities in downtown Galena can be assumed for

development at this time.

4.10 Other Assumptions

1. The Museum will not be responsible for payment of any property or business taxes.

2. All operating revenue and expense projections to come in the next chapter are stated in 2009 constant dollars, thus we have not included a specific inflation factor in our estimates. All projections are assumed to change at the rate of inflation, unless otherwise noted. Salaries and wages, for example, are assumed to increase at a rate of 0.5% per year above the rate of inflation.

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Since financial projections are subject to the inherent uncertainties of the future, it is impossible to guarantee that the projections that result from these assumptions will be realized in whole or in part. Moreover, the projections may be subject to modification based on changed assumptions and future circumstances. Nonetheless, we believe that the projections to come in chapter 5 will be reasonable.

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GALENA-JO DAVIESS COUNTY HISTORICAL SOCIETY Final Report 5. Attendance, Operating Revenue and Expense Projections

5. Attendance, Operating Revenue and Expense Projections

The projections of attendance, operating revenues and expenses for the revitalized Galena-Jo Daviess County Historical Society and Museum set out in this chapter are based on the contextual and market analyses set out in Chapters 2 and 3, the assumptions provided in the preceding chapter, and the judgment and experience of the consultants. Projections are for years 1, 2 and 3 of operations at the new Museum. All projections are in 2009 constant dollars, but some items such as staffing costs tend to increase at a faster pace than rate of inflation, and this is reflected in the specific projections. The projections build on a “base level” that combines actual figures for the Museum and assumes that all existing sources of grant, contributed, and fundraising income to support operations will be maintained at the new site. This allows the bottom line for the projections to emerge from enhanced earned income minus operating expenses to equal the amount required from additional contributed, fundraising, grant and endowment sources to break even each year.

5.1 On-Site Attendance Projections

The attendance projections estimate the number of visitors likely to attend the Museum once operational. To prepare attendance projections first requires a reasonable definition of who would or would not be defined as a visitor. For the purposes of this analysis a visitor is someone who attends an exhibition or program at the Museum, persons who attend as part of rental groups (as they would be categorized as part of an indirect paid admission category), and persons who are program visitors or members. However, this definition of a visitor excludes those who only use the gift shop (assuming gift shop access without paying admission), staff and volunteers, and service and delivery people. While outreach and access through a website are important, the attendance projections do not include outreach programs or website hits/visits. It must also be noted that there is no simple computer formula that leads to credible attendance projections. The process used here considers the experience of the existing Museum, the overall museum marketplace, selected comparable institutions, and the main existing museum-related attractions in and near Jo Daviess County. These institutions provide benchmarks for formulas that help to guide our judgment regarding the appeal or impact of the new site, visitor experience, and the various other assumptions.

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5.1.1 Parameters for On-Site Attendance Projections

Although each has its weaknesses, a variety of methodologies are used to establish parameters to inform our judgment regarding the likely levels of attendance at the revitalized Museum during the years projected. Comparing attendance levels from other institutions is often risky because there are a variety of definitions of what constitutes a visitor and no certainty that the comparative figures reported are accurate. Moreover, there are differences in admission charge structures and substantial variations in the nature of the visitor experience offered. To address the weaknesses inherent in such ratios and simplistic formulas, the section concludes with our judgment regarding the impact on attendance of a variety of key factors.

5.1.1.1 Extrapolation from Base Level Attendance Taking Change in Exhibition Space into Account

This method is a straightforward extrapolation from base level figures. If the existing Museum has 5,500 sq. ft. of exhibition space and a base level attendance of about 9,500 per year, then the current number of visitors per sq. ft. of exhibition space is 1.7. Taking that figure and applying it to the new exhibition space assumption (as per chapter 4) of 12,000 net sq. ft. of exhibition space in the revitalized Museum, we arrive at an extrapolated rounded attendance total of about 21,000 annual visitors.

5.1.1.2 Ratio of Visitors per Sq. Ft. Exhibition Space

Chapter 2.4 considers the experience of four selected museums identified as being the most comparable from the perspective of geography and demographics, recognizing that full comparability is not possible. Data generated from the comparables analysis allows us to create ratios that can be applied to the plan for the new facility. Since the data are not always recorded or reported in a consistent manner we have used our judgment to make some modifications to the reported attendance figures with regard to the Abraham Lincoln Presidential Library and Museum. The figure reported in the AAM Directory is about 800,000 annual visitors, but the figure from interviews is just 175,000. Given the large discrepancy, for the purposes of the projections we will assume the midpoint as the attendance figure, or about 490,000 visitors per year. A series of ratios may be developed that take into account the size of exhibition space and visitors per thousand County population, as well as visitors per thousand overnight tourist visitors. However, particular issues with the data for two of the possible ratios – those referring to visitors per thousand County population and visitors per thousand overnight tourist visitors – yield projections that are unrealistically low (in fact, essentially the same total visitation that the Museum is getting now) and are therefore not credible, so these have been excluded from the analysis.

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For the remaining ratio (visitors per sq. ft. exhibition space), the Museum will have 12,000 net sq. ft. of interior exhibition space. Data from the comparables yield average and median figures of 9.5 and 10.2 visitors per sq. ft. of exhibition space (respectively) as shown in the table below. Applying these figures to the assumed 12,000 net sq. ft. in the revitalized and expanded Museum leads to an attendanceestimate of about 113,500 and 122,300 visitors per year – which is likely unrealistic given market limitations (as discussed in chapter 3 and in the next section of this chapter).

Ratios from Selected Comparable MuseumsOn-Site

Attendance County

Population Exhibition

Space

Visitors per Sq. Ft.

Exhibition Space

Abraham Lincoln Presidential Library and Museum 490,000 193,524 45,000 10.9Littleton Historical Museum 135,000 537,197 12,500 10.8FDR Presidential Library and Museum 115,000 295,146 12,000 9.6Geneva History Center 26,000 501,021 3,950 6.6Average 191,500 381,722 18,363 9.5Median 125,000 398,084 12,250 10.2Overall Average 9.8

5.1.1.3 Percentage Increase After Expansion/Revitalization

Two of the institutions analyzed expanded recently and both reported substantial attendance increases in the aftermath. In Geneva, the History Center doubled attendance – a 100% increase – while in Littleton attendance increased from 100,000 to 135,000 per year, a 35% increase. The average increase is therefore about 67.5%. If applied to the current 9,500 base level attendance at the Galena-Jo Daviess County Historical Society and Museum, the expected attendance would be in the range of 16,000 annual visitors.

5.1.1.4 Overall Average

A summary of the various ratios and extrapolations is as follows:

Ratios/Extrapolations Applied to Revitalized Galena-Jo Daviess Historical Society and Museum

Projected Attendance

Projection based on Visitors per Sq. Ft. Exhibition Space 117,932Projection from Extrapolation Method 21,000Percentage Increase After Expansion/Revitalization 16,000

Overall Average 51,644

When all figures are averaged, the overall average is for attendance in the range of 52,000 annual visitors. But it must be noted that the average is skewed by the ratio based on visitors per sq. ft. of exhibition space, which yielded an unrealistic figure for the expanded Museum. The attendance projections must therefore take this factor into account.

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5.1.2 Judgment Regarding Impact of Market

and Other Factors on Attendance

While the extrapolations and ratios above help to guide our judgment regarding potential attendance, other factors discussed in earlier chapters help to refine the analysis and help to guide our judgment regarding projected attendance levels. These factors, both positive and negative, are as follows:

Positive Factors:

• An Improved Visitor Experience: The major problem with the extrapolation method in section 5.1.1.1 or the comparison method in section 5.1.1.3 is that it does not take into account the major changes to the nature of the visitor experience as assumed in chapter 4, nor does it account for the increased accessibility and visibility also assumed in that chapter. For these reasons it is most likely that visitation will be higher than that suggested by those two extrapolations in particular.

• A Strong Tourist Market: The current Museum’s visitor experience and accessibility problems render it incapable of taking full advantage of the existing tourist market, which has most of the characteristics of a strong cultural tourism market in that it is older, spends more and is predisposed to visiting cultural attractions. There is evidence of pent-up demand for cultural product by the existing Galena tourism market and the response to an adult-oriented, national-level cultural attraction as has been recommended and assumed should be positive. Evidence for this comes from the outstanding performance of the Grant Home, which despite a static visitor experience based on the life of a non-iconic President draws at least 80,000 annual visitors per year. Moreover, the assumption of one major temporary exhibition per year during the high tourist season from spring through early fall should help draw a significant number of repeat tourist visitors back to the Museum.

• The Presidential Trail System: With the election of President Obama, Presidential-related tourism may increase to Illinois. Some Galena attractions are already on the Illinois Presidential Trail system and the new Museum should benefit from inclusion on the Grant portion of the trail system.

Negative Factors:

• Seasonality: The main market for the Museum is Galena’s robust tourist market – but seasonality is a major issue, with most of the Museum’s attendance likely to be concentrated in the weeks between Memorial Day and Columbus Day. Along with a limited resident market to draw from in the off-season (discussed below), this will be a major factor in limiting the Museum’s future attendance.

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• Resident Market Population and Demographics: According to US Census Bureau statistics, the Jo Daviess County resident market is small. As stated above, this will very much limit attendance in the November-April period. There is more potential for visitation from the larger population of Dubuque across the river in Iowa, but the Dubuque MSA population is also relatively small and, while Dubuque is located within the drive time radius considered to be within a resident market area, the city is in another state which is at least a psychological barrier for some. As interviews revealed, currently Dubuque is not a major market for Galena attractions and the future expansion of the Historical Society and Museum will help marginally but not substantially in this regard.

• A Small School Market: The available school market should respond very well to the new Museum if all assumptions are implemented, but nevertheless it is limited by its very small size.

• Relatively High Admission Charges: While the cultural tourism market that will make up the bulk of visitation to the Museum will be wealthier and price should not be a major barrier, the assumed $10 admission charge is significantly higher than any other attraction in Galena – particularly the Grant Home which asks for a $3 donation – and the Museum may encounter some price resistance due to the psychological barrier that a two-digit price level represents.

There are more negative factors than positive ones, and considering these as well as the fact that the figure generated by the extrapolations and ratios is probably too high (because of the visitors per sq. ft. of exhibition space figure), we project that on-site attendance levels will be as follows:

Year 1 50,000 : : :

Year 2 40,000 Year 3 45,000

5.1.3 Projected On-Site Attendance Levels by Segment

The Table that follows provides our estimates of total on-site attendance by visitors on weekdays and weekends, helping to lead to design day projections and projected attendance by main market segment and ticket category. The projections are also based on the following estimates and assumptions. • Attendance by Weekdays and Weekend Days: It is common for weekend days

to account for 45-50% of all visitors. The current pattern is for weekends to account for 65% of visitors to the existing Museum, largely because school group visitation during weekdays is limited while tourist visitation on weekends is high. We have estimated that in the new facility weekend days will continue to represent a higher than average figure due to the dominance of the local tourist market, but have reduced the figure to 60% to account for better school group and resident attendance.

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• Design Day Calculation: The Design Day (not peak attendance) calculation is of a higher than average weekend day in a higher than average attendance month. We estimate attendance during such a weekend day at only 10% higher than average. This figure is then applied to estimate how many people will be in the building at one time, which will be helpful to future architectural planning and parking use estimates. Based on the size of the exhibition/experience space, we have estimated about 40% of daily visitors will be in the building at one time.

• Attendance by Main Market Segment: The assumed pattern is that on a percentage basis resident attendance will be highest in the opening year then will decline over time, while school and tourist percentages will increase slightly. Attendance by tourists is currently at 74% and that percentage will increase to a level between 80% and 90%, simply because the resident and school markets are so numerically limited – there are clear limits to the amount of growth the Museum can expect in attendance from these markets. In fact, visitation from the resident market on a percentage (not numerical) basis will actually drop over current levels due to exactly these issues.

• Attendance by Ticket Category: The Table that follows also provides estimates of attendance by the admission ticket category. Persons in an Indirect Paid/Unpaid category include members, program and rental visitors as well as those admitted free via various methods.

Our attendance projections are summarized in the following Table, starting with a base level of existing attendance at the existing Historical Society and Museum. The visitor-generated revenue categories that follow build upon these attendance estimates.

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Attendance Projections (rounded)Base Level Year 1 Year 2 Year 3

Base Level Year 1 Year 2 Year 3

Projected Total Attendance 9,500 50,000 40,000 45,000

Attendance by Weekday/WeekendWeekdays 40% 45% 40% 40% 3,800 22,500 16,000 18,000Weekends 60% 55% 60% 60% 5,700 27,500 24,000 27,000Total 50,000 40,000 45,000

Design Day CalculationTotal Projected Attendance 50,000 40,000 45,000Total Weekend day Attendance 27,500 24,000 27,000Average Weekend day Attendance 264 231 260Weekend day Attendance in Higher Attendance Month (10% above average) 291 254 286Maximum Number of People in Building at One Time (40% of daily total) 116 102 114

Attendance by Main SegmentNon-School Resident 13% 8% 7% 7% 1,235 4,000 2,800 3,150School 13% 4% 5% 5% 1,235 2,000 2,000 2,250Tourist 74% 88% 88% 88% 7,030 44,000 35,200 39,600Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 9,500 50,000 40,000 45,000

Attendance by Ticket Category Adult 52% 51% 47% 26,000 20,400 21,150Senior/Youth 20% 25% 25% 10,000 10,000 11,250Child 10% 5% 8% 5,000 2,000 3,600Non-School Groups 4% 4% 5% 2,000 1,600 2,250School Groups 4% 5% 5% 2,000 2,000 2,250Sub-Total 90% 90% 90% 45,000 36,000 40,500

Indirect Paid/Unpaid 10% 10% 10% 5,000 4,000 4,500

Total Attendance 100% 100% 100% 50,000 40,000 45,000

5.2 Projected Operating Revenues

This section sets out our projections of operating revenues during the years projected for the Galena-Jo Daviess Historical Society and Museum. Projections are set out in the following categories:

Admissions; Retail Sales; Membership; Educational and Public Programs; Rentals; Fundraising Events; Other Earned Income Assumed Endowment Income Existing Donated/Sponsorship Income; Existing Grant Support.

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The projections also assume that exist ng levels of fundraising, contributed (donations/sponsorships) and grant income will be maintained at current levels during each year projected. This allows the bottom line to be the amount required from additional donated/sponsorship, fundraising, and grant sources to break even on operations each year.

i

5.2.1 Admissions

The table that follows sets out assumed admission charges and the projected attendance levels by ticket category. This leads to projected admissions revenues, which are compared to the base level of $40,500. These projections also take into account the impact of assumed value-added and other discounts offered in collaboration with other museums and agencies. We estimate that discounts will result in 7% (a typical figure) lower income per year than if such discounts were not in place. Based on the estimates and assumptions above, our projections of admissions income are as follows: Admission Revenue - All Visitors (rounded)

Ticket Categories Admission Charges (2009

dollars)

Base Level

Year 1 Attendance

Year 1 Admissions

Revenue

Year 2 Attendance

Year 2 Admission Revenue

Year 3 Attendance

Year 3 Admissions

RevenueAdult $10.00 26,000 $260,000 20,400 $204,000 21,150 $211,500Senior/Youth $8.00 10,000 $80,000 10,000 $80,000 11,250 $90,000Child (0-12) $0.00 5,000 $0 2,000 $0 3,600 $0Non-School Groups $6.00 2,000 $12,000 1,600 $9,600 2,250 $13,500School Groups $4.00 2,000 $8,000 2,000 $8,000 2,250 $9,000

Indirect Paid/Unpaid $0.00 5,000 $0 4,000 $0 4,500 $0

Total Admissions Revenue (before discounts) $360,000 $301,600 $324,000Total Admissions Revenue (after discounts) $40,500 $334,800 $280,488 $301,320Attendance 9,500 50,000 40,000 45,000Admissions Revenue per Visitor $4.26 $6.70 $7.01 $6.70

5.2.2 Retail Sales

The existing Museum has a retail store of 225 net sq. ft. of public space. There will be about 800 net sq. ft. of public space devoted to a retail store in the new and expanded Museum. Our estimates of retail sales for the new store take into account the size of the store and the estimated attendance and are also informed by figures from the 2006 Museum Store Association Retail Industry Report. The retail industry median for sales per sq. ft. is $142 for history museums. The median sales per visitor figure for history museums is $2.43. The existing Museum reported gross sales of about $39,550 in FY08 which translates to about $4.16 per visitor, or about $176 per sq. ft. of public space - higher than industry medians in both cases and especially impressive because history museums generally have lower than average sales per visitor. The excellent base level performance of the existing Galena-Jo Daviess Historical Society and Museum likely has much to do with Galena’s older cultural tourist market, which as is well known is wealthier, better educated and which tends to spend more in local establishments.

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Taking the foregoing into account, we estimate retail sales per visitor to increase to $4.25 in Year 1 increasing to $4.50 by a stabilized year of operation which assumes professional store management (as outlined in the staffing assumptions) and the application of better product knowledge over time. These figures take into account opportunities for sales to non-visitors as well as discounts to members. The assumptions and estimates above lead to the following retail sales projections. (Costs of goods sold are included with the expense projections while staffing and other overhead costs are included with those expense projections later in this Chapter.) Retail Sales (800 sq. ft. retail space) Base Level Year 1 Year 2 Year 3Sales/Visitor $4.16 $4.25 $4.35 $4.50Total Attendance 9,500 50,000 40,000 45,000Total Sales $39,550 $212,500 $174,000 $202,500Sales per Sq. Ft. $175.78 $94 $77 $90

5.2.3 Membership

The Museum has about 650 current memberships (as opposed to members) with base level membership income of about $15,000. This translates into membership revenue per membership at over $23. Currently about 10% of memberships are upper-level (or about 65). These are the base levels for the projections. A low-cost resident membership strategy is assumed and will make the Museum less expensive for regional residents who are most likely to become members, although it is likely that some regular tourist visitors will also become members. The Museum will also institute and market an upper-level membership program with a series of enhanced perquisites to appeal to those whose motivation for membership is support for the institution’s mission rather than value for money (i.e. free admission). The highest membership levels will be during the excitement of opening year. In a stabilized attendance year we estimate that the total number of lower-level memberships will be about 1,000, with an estimated 100 upper-level memberships. With higher ticket prices and more upper level memberships, we estimate that average membership revenue per membership will increase to $40. The increase in memberships leads to more “indirect paid” visitors as indicated in the attendance projections. These estimates lead to the following projections for membership. Membership Base Level Year 1 Year 2 Year 3Total Memberships 650 1,200 1,000 1,000Average Revenue per Membership $23 $40 $45 $50Total Revenue $15,000 $48,000 $45,000 $50,000

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5.2.4 Educational and Public Programs

Program revenues totaled about $14,000 in FY08 and this has been used as the base level. Non-staff costs for educational and public programs totaled about $1,800 in FY08 which means that programs at the existing Museum have been revenue-generating – an unusual situation since most museums report non-staff costs of programs at approximately four to five times program revenues. In Galena, base level educational and public programming revenues last year were more than seven times higher than expenses (over 700% return) – which is obviously far superior to the 20-25% revenue return typically found on museum educational and public programs. But it does suggest that the Museum is currently under-resourcing its public and educational programs and, as a larger, national-level institution the Museum will need to put many more resources into program development to establish credibility at that level, and it is not likely that the current situation will continue. However, for the purposes of these projections we will assume that programs perform much better than the situation at most museums, but that current rates of return will fall substantially due to the need to improve scope and quality of public and educational programs in a manner befitting a national-level institution. The addition of a staff person responsible for programming will have an impact on quality but will also tend to increase non-staff programming costs. School programs will be developed in association with School District staff with reference to State of Illinois standards and will be curriculum-linked, thus providing incentive for area schools to attend regularly as per the analysis provided in earlier chapters. As detailed assumptions about the nature of new educational and public programs must be developed by program delivery staff in the runup to opening, the projections assume that revenues associated with education programs will triple in the new facility and will register an annual 50% return (i.e. revenues will be equal to half program costs). Again this remains superior to the normal situation in most museums and recognizes that program development will be run efficiently. It also reflects the current trend in museums to improve the financial performance of educational and public programs. This leads to the following projections.

Educational and Public Programs Base Level Year 1 Year 2 Year 3Total Revenue $14,000 $42,000 $44,100 $44,100

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5.2.5 Rentals

Currently the Museum reports no rentals income and thus the base level figure is zero. In the expanded Museum, the income potential from rentals is greater than from other revenue generation opportunities such as food service operations or concessions, and usually includes a commission from caterers. In the new facility, emphasis will be placed on facility rentals, including a large lobby of some 2,000 net sq. ft. Assuming maximized space use, most rentals at the Historical Society and Museum will be in the 50 to 150-person range, somewhat less than typical numbers found at museums and hotels to account for the Museum’s small-town setting and distance from major urban areas. Due to these same issues and the results of the interview process (which did not reveal much demand for rental space but did reveal the existence of competing venues) the projections assume a relatively modest number of annual rentals and a relatively modest average fee of about $350 per rental increasing at about 0.5% over the rate of inflation each year, leading to the following projections: Rentals Base Level Year 1 Year 2 Year 3Rentals per Year 50 50 50Average Income per Rental $350 $368 $386Total Revenue $0 $17,500 $18,375 $19,294

5.2.6 Fundraising Events

Most museums and related institutions require fundraising events to support exhibitions, programs and other operating costs. The current base level is $52,570. Costs associated with gala events are generally in the $23,000 range and are included within the relevant expense category. The amounts that may be generated for the new Museum after it opens may vary widely based on community support for the project. Generally, the amounts that may be raised are lower in the initial years because individuals, families, corporations and foundations have only recently contributed to the capital campaign, but increase over time. Although the amounts that might be generated in additional income may vary widely, the level of effort required to develop additional fundraising events or to substantially increase revenues from existing events suggests caution regarding how much more that might be raised each year. We therefore estimate a 30% increase in Years 2 and 3 over the base level revenues to support operating costs but only 15% in Year 1 because the Museum will just be finishing initiatives to secure the capital funds for the project. These assumptions and estimates lead to the following rounded projections.

Fundraising Events Base Level Year 1 Year 2 Year 3Total Revenue (@15%/30% increase over base level) $52,570 $60,000 $68,000 $68,000

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5.2.7 Other Earned Income

The Museum reports almost $11,000 in earned income from “other” sources in FY08, and this figure is used as the base level. There may be opportunities to increase income from these miscellaneous and one-time sources such as pay-for-photo/video opportunities, interactive donation boxes, film shoots and other sources to be developed by management at the time. Although these amounts may vary widely, the small-town setting of Galena will limit opportunities for increased revenue from these miscellaneous sources. Thus our projections are as follows: Other Earned Income Base Level Year 1 Year 2 Year 3Total Revenue $10,930 $15,000 $15,000 $15,000

5.2.8 Assumed Endowment Income

The Assumptions in chapter 4 point to an endowment of $5 million by Year 1 of operations. Assuming a conservative 5% rate of return, the endowment fund should spin off the following projected operating revenue: Endowment Income Base Level Year 1 Year 2 Year 3Total Revenue $0 $250,000 $250,000 $250,000

5.2.9 Existing Donations/Contributed Income

The income generated in FY08 from donated/sponsorship income was about $30,700. Since it is not credible to include donations or contributed income in projections of this kind, the base level is assumed throughout the years projected so that the bottom line can include the amount required from additional donated/sponsorship sources to break even on operations. Existing Donations/Contributed Income Base Level Year 1 Year 2 Year 3Total Revenue $30,700 $30,700 $30,700 $30,700

5.2.10 Existing Grant Income

In FY08 income generated from various local, state and federal grants was about $8,750 which is the base level. As above, the bottom line will include the amount required from additional grant sources to break even. Existing Grant Income Base Level Year 1 Year 2 Year 3Total Revenue $8,750 $8,750 $8,750 $8,750

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5.3 Projected Expenses

There are 9 categories of projected operating expenses for the revitalized Galena-Jo Daviess County Historical Society and Museum. These are:

Salaries, Wages and Benefits; Occupancy Costs; Exhibitions Costs; Educational and Public Programming; Collections Care; General and Administrative; Marketing; Retail Cost of Goods Sold Cost of Fundraising Events.

5.3.1 Salaries, Wages and Benefits

The largest operating cost of any museum-related institution is staffing, generally accounting for 45-55% of the total operating budget in similar institutions. The table below begins with a base level of FTE positions and salaries, wages and benefits. The base level figure shown from FY08 is $103,043. Existing salaries at the Historical Society and Museum are low, so to account for increased responsibilities in the larger operation and to bring salaries closer to industry averages, existing staff salaries have been increased by a factor of 50%. The salaries indicated in the table take into account existing and new staff salaries but have been adjusted upward to reflect the period of time between now and a stabilized year. Since staffing costs tend to increase faster than the rate of inflation, it is assumed that staffing costs will increase over the prevailing rate of inflation by about 0.5% per year. Museum-paid benefits are assumed to average 15% during the period projected. These estimates and assumptions lead to the following staffing costs.

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PositionSalary per

FTE Year 1 Year 2 Year 3Base Level of FY08 Actual Figures 2.5 $103,043 $108,195 $113,605Existing Salaries with 50% Adjustment Applied $154,565 $162,293 $170,407New PositionsEducation Programmer 1.0 $40,000 $40,000 $42,000 $44,100Development Director 1.0 $45,000 $45,000 $47,250 $49,613Grant Writer 1.0 $40,000 $40,000 $42,000 $44,100Administrative Support 0.5 $25,000 $12,500 $13,125 $13,781Registrar 1.0 $35,000 $35,000 $36,750 $38,588Retail Manager 0.5 $35,000 $17,500 $18,375 $19,294Exhibit Designer/Manager 1.0 $40,000 $40,000 $42,000 $44,100Exhibit Preparator 1.0 $30,000 $30,000 $31,500 $33,075Maintenance Staff 1.0 $30,000 $30,000 $31,500 $33,075Marketing Director/Rental Coodinator 1.0 $40,000 $40,000 $42,000 $44,100Volunteer/Event Coordinator 0.5 $40,000 $20,000 $21,000 $22,050Total New Salaries and Wages 9.5 $350,000 $367,500 $385,875Museum-Paid Benefits for New Staff (@ 15%) $52,500 $55,125 $57,881Total New Salaries, Wages and Benefits 9.5 $402,500 $422,625 $443,756

Total Existing and New Staff 12.0 $557,065 $584,918 $614,164Contract Employees SalaryWeekend/Evening/Floor Staff 1.0 $25,000 $25,000 $26,250 $27,563

Grand Total Salaries, Wages and Benefits $582,065 $611,168 $641,726

5.3.2 Occupancy Costs

Occupancy costs are defined to include all costs, excluding salaries, associated with the Museum building and grounds. These costs totaled about $18,150 in FY08 or $1.65 per gross sq. ft., which is extraordinarily low. Normally occupancy costs generally range between $5 and $8 per gross sq. ft. of building space, the range reflecting widely varying (but generally increased) energy costs over the past few years. Also costs will vary by the extent of the environmental controls required, weather conditions in the four-season climate of northwestern Illinois, and the extent of public use. While it may be assumed that the new facility will be much more energy efficient, it must also be assumed that (despite lower costs at the time of this report) energy costs will increase over the long term. The new facility is assumed at 40,572 gross sq. ft. with occupancy costs assumed at $7 per sq. ft. which assumes an energy-efficient building but also higher energy costs. Costs are assumed to increase at the rate of 2% per year. Projections are thus as follows: Occupancy Costs Base Level Year 1 Year 2 Year 3Building Size gsf 11,000 40,672 40,672 40,672Costs per Square Ft. $1.65 $7.00 $7.14 $7.28Total Occupancy Costs $18,150 $284,704 $290,398 $296,206

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5.3.3 Exhibitions Costs

These non-staff operating costs include temporary exhibitions, maintenance of the permanent exhibits, and a recommended and assumed reserve to pay for the replacement and refurbishment of permanent collection exhibitions. The existing Museum has some 5,500 net sq. ft of exhibition space. This will increase to 10,000 net sq. ft. of permanent collection exhibition space and 2,000 net sq. ft. of temporary exhibition space in the new facility, which more than doubles the amount of current space. Exhibition costs, including refurbishment, replacement and maintenance totaled about $15,670 in FY08 which is understood as the base level which indicates annual per net sq. ft. expenditures of about $2.85 which is low. If we apply this figure to the 12,000 net sq. ft of exhibition space assumed for the new facility suggests costs of $34,200 but this figure is provided only as a benchmark, as the method does not take into account issues of quality, particularly for temporary exhibitions. And as stated above, we recommend that part of the operating budget include a reserve to help pay for replacement of permanent collection exhibits over time (many museums do not plan for exhibit replacement and we believe it is an error not to do so). Our estimates for each of these expense items are as follows by focusing on each item separately: • Routine Exhibit Maintenance: These non-staff costs will increase over time,

and are estimated at zero in Year 1 (since components will be covered by warranties) and increasing to $60,000 per year in a stabilized year of operation.

• Temporary Exhibitions: The space plan calls for about 2,000 sf of space for temporary exhibitions. Some of the exhibitions will be from the Museum’s own collections and others will be traveling exhibitions brought in from other venues. Although the amount that will be required for temporary exhibitions may vary widely, these projections assume $100,000 per year except for Year 1 when a temporary exhibition will not be necessary (since people will come to the Museum for the novelty factor and will not need the added incentive of a temporary exhibition).

• Reserve for Exhibit Replacement: New exhibits will require minimal maintenance in the first year due to the warranties on exhibit components. However, costs associated with exhibit enhancement and the need for replacement will increase over time,. Although these will not likely be changed substantially within the years projected, we have assumed the Museum will create a restricted Reserve Fund for Exhibit Replacement from the outset and that the annual allocation will be $25,000 per year.

These estimates lead to the following projections. Exhibition Costs Base Level Year 1 Year 2 Year 3Reserve for Exhibit Replacement $25,000 $25,000 $25,000Temporary Exhibitions $0 $100,000 $100,000Routine Maintenance $0 $25,000 $60,000Total Costs $15,670 $25,000 $150,000 $185,000

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GALENA-JO DAVIESS COUNTY HISTORICAL SOCIETY Final Report 5. Attendance, Operating Revenue and Expense Projections

5.3.4 Educational and Public Programming

These costs exclude staffing costs, which are projected separately earlier, associated with various educational and public programs. The costs in FY08 were about $1,800 which is assumed to be the base level figure, but as stated earlier programming costs are projected to be twice revenues. This leads to the following projections: Programming Costs Base Level Year 1 Year 2 Year 3Total Costs $1,800 $84,000 $92,400 $88,200

5.3.5 Collections Care

The Galena-Jo Daviess County Historical Society and Museum non-staff collections care costs were $2,500 in FY08 – only about 1% of total expenses. Large increases in the rate of collection growth are not assumed but the Museum will look for significant pieces relating to Grant and Galena history and will continue to ensure quality care for existing collections. For the purposes of these projections we estimate that costs will increase to $15,000 per year or just over 1% of total expenses. Collections Care Base Level Year 1 Year 2 Year 3Total Costs $2,500 $15,000 $15,000 $15,000

5.3.6 General and Administrative

General and administrative costs exclude staffing costs and include office and related supplies, equipment, mailing, printing, telephone, travel, conferences, volunteer perquisites, professional services, the web site, dues and subscriptions, credit card fees, entertainment, and other items that do not fit into the other expense categories. These costs relate very much to staffing levels and generally fall within a range of 10-15% of staffing costs. Figures for the existing Museum in FY08 were about $19,165, or about 18% of staffing costs. For the purposes of these projections we have reduced this percentage to 15% for Year 1 and 13% for a stabilized year of operations. These estimates result in the following projections.

General & Administrative Base Level Year 1 Year 2 Year 315%/13% of Staffing $19,165 $87,310 $79,452 $83,424 5.3.7 Marketing

Marketing staff has been accounted for in the staffing projections. The focus here is on non-staff marketing costs, including advertising and promotion. These costs generally range from 1-5% or more of the total operating budgets of museum-related institutions, with a 5-10% range considered ideal.

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GALENA-JO DAVIESS COUNTY HISTORICAL SOCIETY Final Report 5. Attendance, Operating Revenue and Expense Projections

The Museum spent only $1,500 on marketing in FY08, or less than 1% of expenses. Non-staff marketing expenditures may also be calculated on a per visitor basis. This is also helpful if sensitivity analyses are used for attendance scenarios. At some 9,500 visitors in FY08, this translated into non-staff marketing expenditures of about $0.16 per visitor. Although marketing expenses can still be kept relatively low due to the fact that the Museum will benefit from the annual presence of a large tourist market that will actively seek out things to do in Galena, to achieve its attendance potential (and to publicize its annual major temporary exhibitions) it will need to increase marketing expenditures. This is particularly important with regard to its temporary exhibitions, so that repeat tourist visitors are aware that something new is happening in the Museum. Thus we have assumed a non-staff marketing expenditure of $1.50 per visitor in a stabilized year of operations, which translates to just under 5% of total expenses. This leads to the following projections. Marketing Base Level Year 1 Year 2 Year 3$1.25/$1.50 per visitor $1,500 $62,500 $60,000 $67,500

5.3.8 Retail Cost of Goods Sold

The cost of retail goods sold is generally in the range of 50-60% of retail sales, and the Museum reported 45% for FY2008. These projections assume cost of goods sold at 50% each year which assumes better quality product and improved product development, leading to the following projections. Retail Cost of Goods Sold Base Level Year 1 Year 2 Year 3Total Costs (@ 50%) $17,857 $106,250 $87,000 $101,250

5.3.9 Cost of Fundraising Events

The base level costs for fundraising events in FY08 was $23,655, which is about 45% of the reported FY08 revenues of $52,570. We have assumed increases in revenues of 15% in Year 1 and 30% in subsequent years. It is assumed that the cost of fundraising will increase by similar percentages per year thus leading to the following projections. Cost of Fundraising Events Base Level Year 1 Year 2 Year 3Total Costs $23,655 $27,203 $30,752 $30,752

5.4 Summary of Attendance and Financial Projections

The following table summarizes our projections of attendance, operating revenue and expenses for the Galena-Jo Daviess Historical Society and Museum at its expanded new facility which (at the time of planning) is assumed to be in downtown Galena. The projections are for a stabilized year of operation. On-site attendance levels are estimated to be 50,000 in Year 1, falling to 40,000 in Year 2 and finally arriving at a stabilized level of about 45,000 in Year 3.

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GALENA-JO DAVIESS COUNTY HISTORICAL SOCIETY Final Report 5. Attendance, Operating Revenue and Expense Projections

We have established a base level that indicates an operating budget for the existing Museum in the range of $203,000. Based on the analyses and assumptions in this report we project that the total operating budget for the Museum will grow to about $1.5 million in a stabilized year of operation. All financial projections are in constant 2009 dollars. Earned income levels plus assumed continuation of base levels of contributed/donated, fundraising and grant income and the addition of endowment income for the Museum are estimated to range from about $1.019 million to about $990,000. This leaves an amount required to break even from additional non-earned sources at about $255,000 in Year 1 to about $519,000 in a stabilized year. On a percentage basis earned income levels will come in at almost 42% in a stabilized year of operation – not as high as the existing operation, but significantly higher than the 31% national average for history museums. The projections also assume that the Museum and its supporters will be able to raise a substantial endowment by the first year of the revitalized Museum’s operation. If the Museum is able to build an endowment of this size, endowment income will account for over 16% of total operating expenses in a stabilized year, about double the history museum average of about 8%.

Summary Base Level Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 1 % Year 2 % Year 3 %Annual Attendance 9,500 50,000 40,000 45,000

Operating RevenuesAdmissions $40,500 $334,800 $280,488 $301,320 26.3% 19.8% 20.0%Retail Sales $39,550 $212,500 $174,000 $202,500 16.7% 12.3% 13.4%Membership $15,000 $48,000 $45,000 $50,000 3.8% 3.2% 3.3%Educational and Public Programs $14,000 $42,000 $44,100 $44,100 3.3% 3.1% 2.9%Rentals $0 $17,500 $18,375 $19,294 1.4% 1.3% 1.3%Other Earned Income $10,930 $15,000 $15,000 $15,000 1.2% 1.1% 1.0%Assumed Endowment Income $0 $250,000 $250,000 $250,000 19.6% 17.7% 16.6%Existing Fundraising Events $52,570 $60,000 $68,000 $68,000 4.7% 4.8% 4.5%Existing Donations/Contributed $30,700 $30,700 $30,700 $30,700 2.4% 2.2% 2.0%Existing Grant Income $8,750 $8,750 $8,750 $8,750 0.7% 0.6% 0.6%Total Revenue Projected $212,000 $1,019,250 $934,413 $989,664 80.0% 66.0% 65.6%

Operating ExpensesSalaries, Wages, Benefits $103,043 $582,065 $611,168 $641,726 45.7% 43.2% 42.5%Occupancy Costs $18,150 $284,704 $290,398 $296,206 22.3% 20.5% 19.6%Exhibitions $15,670 $25,000 $150,000 $185,000 2.0% 10.6% 12.3%Programs $1,800 $84,000 $92,400 $88,200 6.6% 6.5% 5.8%General & Administrative $19,165 $87,310 $79,452 $83,424 6.9% 5.6% 5.5%Marketing $1,500 $62,500 $60,000 $67,500 4.9% 4.2% 4.5%Collections Care $2,500 $15,000 $15,000 $15,000 1.2% 1.1% 1.0%Retail Cost of Goods Sold $17,857 $106,250 $87,000 $101,250 8.3% 6.1% 6.7%Cost of Fundraising Events $23,655 $27,203 $30,752 $30,752 2.1% 2.2% 2.0%Total Expenses $203,340 $1,274,031 $1,416,169 $1,509,058 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Amount/Percentage Required from Additional Fundraising, Contributed and Grant Sources to Break Even on Operations $8,660 ($254,781) ($481,756) ($519,394) -20.0% -34.0% -34.4%Earned Income Totals/Percentages $669,800 $576,963 $632,214 52.6% 40.7% 41.9%

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GALENA-JO DAVIESS COUNTY HISTORICAL SOCIETY AND MUSEUM Final Report 6. Economic Impact

6. Economic Impact

6.1 Methodology

Economic impacts manifest themselves in a number of ways. The spending by any business supports other busi-nesses which causes multiplier effects as that money continues to be re-spent through the economy. Employees are paid their wages and salaries. Subsequent spending by employees in their communities to support their house-holds likewise triggers multiplier effects. To calculate the multiplier effects of the proposed Galena-Jo Daviess County Historical Society and Museum, we relied on economic multipliers which are estimated by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis using its Regional Input-Output Modeling System (RIMS II). RIMS II multipliers are available for sixty aggregate industries as classi-fied by the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). Five of those industries would apply to the economic activity that is projected to occur at or because of the new Galena-Jo Daviess Historical Society and Mu-seum. Those industries are: • Performing arts, museums, and related activities, because that is the industry

classification of the Historical Society and Museum.

• Food service and drinking places, because visitors spend money at eating and drinking establishments in the com-munity during their visits to the museum.

• Retail trade, because visitors spend money at retail establishments in the community during their visits to the museum.

• Accommodations, because some visitors will not be local visitors and will require overnight accommodations at area hotels during their visit.

• Households, because of the wages paid to employees of the museum, the majority of which are presumed to be spent within the region.

Economic impacts are demonstrated through multiplier effects in three primary ways: 1. Output, which is similar to the nation’s and state’s gross domestic product

(GDP). That is, the output meas-ure is the sum of all additional dollars that are spent in the Jo Daviess County and Illinois economies as a re-sult of the direct spending by the museum and its employees’ households.

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GALENA-JO DAVIESS COUNTY HISTORICAL SOCIETY AND MUSEUM Final Report 6. Economic Impact

2. Earnings, which show how much added income will accrue to Jo Daviess County and Illinois households because of the multiplier effects, in addition to the direct compensation paid to museum employees.

3. Jobs supported in the Jo Daviess County and Illinois economies as a result of the multiplier effects, in addi-tion to the employees at the museum.

RIMS II multipliers are available at the national, state, and county levels. Our analysis focuses on the economic impact on Jo Daviess County and the State of Illinois. The industry multipliers for these two regions are shown in Table 1. TABLE 1

INDUSTRY MULTIPLIERS FOR JO DAVIESS COUNTY, IL

Industry Sector Output Earnings Employment Performing Arts, Museums and Related Activities 1.33 0.51 24.06

Households 0.59 0.12 4.28

Retail Trade 1.34 0.29 11.21

Food Service & Drinking Places 1.32 0.27 15.60

Accommodations 1.37 0.35 11.63

INDUSTRY MULTIPLIERS FOR THE STATE OF ILLINOIS

Industry Sector Output Earnings Employment Performing Arts, Museums and Related Activities 2.29 0.81 32.38

Households 1.67 0.45 12.69

Retail Trade 2.28 0.67 22.87

Food Service & Drinking Places 2.38 0.63 28.10

Accommodations 2.22 0.63 18.97

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Input-Output Multiplier System Annual non-payroll operating expenses of the museum are multiplied by the performing arts industry multipliers to arrive at the projected indirect impacts from museum operations. The annual wages paid to museum employees are multiplied by the households industry multipliers to arrive at the projected indirect impacts from employee earnings. These two together amount to the total projected indirect impacts of the museum. Annual visitor spending on retail items is multiplied by the retail trade industry multipliers, annual visitor spending on food and beverages is multiplied by the food service and drinking places industry multipliers, and annual visitor spending on lodging is multiplied by the accommodations industry multipliers. The combined indirect impacts from the three spending categories total the projected indirect impacts from visitor spending outside the museum attributable to their museum visits. All projections of multiplier effects are shown in 2009 constant dollars.

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GALENA-JO DAVIESS COUNTY HISTORICAL SOCIETY AND MUSEUM Final Report 6. Economic Impact

6.2 Assumptions

The analysis relies on the data and assumptions set forth in Sections 4.0 and 5.0 of the feasibility study for the Ga-lena-Jo Daviess County Historical Society and Museum performed by Lord Cultural Resources (LCR). Those chapters provide attendance and operating data for the first three years of operations. The study determined that the new museum would have a peak attendance of 50,000 in the first year and then stabilize at 45,000 visitors an-nually by the third year. The study also concludes that the museum would employ 13 full-time-equivalent employ-ees and spend approximately $1.4 million annually on operating expenses and payroll by year 3. Table 2.a summa-rizes the assumptions, described in the earlier chapters, which form the basis of the economic impact projections. TABLE 2.A

ASSUMPTIONS - Museum Operations

Base Year 1 Year 2 Year 3

Annual Attendance 9,500 50,000 40,000 45,000

Full-Time-Equivalent Jobs 2.5 13 13 13

Payroll1 $87,600 $506,400 $531,650 $558,200

Non-payroll operating expenses $100,300 $692,000 $805,000 $867,3001 excludes benefits Source: Lord Cultural Resources

Development Strategies extrapolated these base assumptions for a 20-year projection period. We assumed that the level of attendance would remain constant at 45,000 visitors annually going forward. LCR estimates assume a 5 percent annual increase in payroll; we project a 3 percent annual increase in payroll from Year 4 through Year 20. We also project a constant 3 percent annual increase in non-payroll operating costs from Year 4 through Year 20. LCR segmented the attendance estimates by type of visitor. LCR estimates that approximately 74 percent of visitors will be tourists and the remaining 26 percent of visitors will be split evenly between school groups and non-school residents within a 50 mile radius1. Of the tourist population, it is expected that some will be day-trippers and some will be overnight visitors. Based on information from the Galena-Jo Daviess County Historical Society & Museum, approximately 62 percent of the 800,000 annual visitors to the region require overnight accommodations. We are comfortable assuming that visitors to the museum will mirror that trend. In addition, tourism and hotel professionals in the area estimate that the average daily rate (ADR) for lodging in the area is approximately $100 per night2. Based on

1 Section 3.1 defines resident visitors as individuals or school groups who travel less than 50 miles. 2 The estimates of total annual visitors, the percent of overnight visitors, and the ADR was provided to DS by management of the museum based on their conversations with tourism and hotel professionals in the area.

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GALENA-JO DAVIESS COUNTY HISTORICAL SOCIETY AND MUSEUM Final Report 6. Economic Impact

these estimates, we project that overnight visitors to the museum will spend approximately $40 per person per visit on lodging3. Information on visitor spending in the larger Galena and Jo-Daviess county communities is not maintained by the Galena-Jo Daviess County Convention and Visitor Bureau. Therefore, we gathered data on the spending habits of visitors to cultural institutions from various national and regional studies (see Appendix D for details). Based on the findings of those studies, we estimate that per visitor spending on retail and food items outside the museum is about $21.00 in today’s dollars. However, not all of this spending can be attributed to visiting the museum. Visi-tors may visit the museum as part of their visit to other area attractions. Based on the studies we reviewed, we assume that 73 percent of the spending can be directly attributed to the Galena-Jo Daviess County Historical Soci-ety & Museum. This reduces our assumption for per visitor spending on retail and food items to $15.30 for the purpose of projecting the economic impact of the museum. Our projections assume a constant 2.5 percent annual growth in visitor spending. Table 2b below summarizes our assumptions for additional spending per visitor outside the museum. TABLE 2.B

ASSUMPTIONS - Visitor Spending Outside Museum

(in 2009 dollars) Base

Food & Drink Spending $10.60 per visitor

Retail Spending $4.80 per visitor

Lodging $40.00 per visitor

Total Spending $55.40 per visitor

6.3 Economic Impact

6.3.1 Jo Daviess County

Operational spending by the museum will have a ripple effect that will be felt throughout the county economy. The museum is projected to spend an estimated $1.9 million annually to operate the museum. We estimate that operations spending will trigger an additional $2.0 million in county output, $693,000 in additional household earnings, and support an additional 32 jobs annually throughout the county across all industries. Table 3 summarizes the projected average annual economic impact of on-going museum operations on Jo Daviess County.

3 Assumes an average group size of 2.5 persons per group, requiring one room and staying one night. (45,000 x 62% ÷ 2.5 x $100 ÷ 27,900 = $40).

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GALENA-JO DAVIESS COUNTY HISTORICAL SOCIETY AND MUSEUM Final Report 6. Economic Impact

TABLE 3

ECONOMIC IMPACT OF OPERATIONS AT GALENA-JO DAVIESS HISTORICAL SOCIETY AND MUSEUM

Jo Daviess County, IL (in 2009 dollars) Average Annual*

Operating

Expenditures Employee

Compensation Total Direct Spending $1,183,000 $705,300 $1,888,300

Multipliers Output 1.33 0.59 1.04 Earnings 0.51 0.12 0.36 Jobs 24.06 4.28 16.37

ADDED ECONOMIC IMPACT ON JO DAVIESS COUNTY Output $1,573,000 $417,000 $1,990,000 Earnings $608,000 $85,000 $693,000 Indirect Jobs Held by County Residents 29 3 32

TOTAL ECONOMIC IMPACT ON JO DAVIESS COUNTY Output $3,173,000 Earnings $1,398,300 Direct Jobs at New Museum 13 Total Direct and Indirect Jobs for County Residents 45 *Values represent the average value over a 20-year projection period.

Multiplier Definitions: Output: Total dollar change in the Jo Daviess economy due to

expenditures by visitors to the museum. Earnings: Total dollar change in earnings of households in Jo Daviess

county due to expenditures by visitors to the museum.

Jobs: Total change in the number of jobs held by Jo Daviess county residents per $1,000,000 of added output.

Additional multiplier effects can be expected from the anticipated visitor spending outside the museum. Many visitors will shop or dine in local establishments as part of their visit to the museum. Moreover, an estimated 62 percent of visitors will require overnight accommodations during their visit. We estimate that visitor spending attributable to visits to the museum on retail items, food, and lodging will total about $2.4 million annually. This spending will ripple through the county’s economy to generate an additional $3.2 million in county output, $753,000 in additional household earnings for county residents, and support an additional 30 jobs per year throughout the county across all industries. Table 4 summarizes the projected average annual economic impact of additional visitor spending outside the museum on Jo Daviess County.

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GALENA-JO DAVIESS COUNTY HISTORICAL SOCIETY AND MUSEUM Final Report 6. Economic Impact

TABLE 4

ECONOMIC IMPACT OF VISITOR SPENDING OUTSIDE MUSEUM GALENA-JO DAVIESS HISTORICAL SOCIETY AND MUSEUM

Jo Daviess County, IL (in 2009 dollars)

Average Annual*

Retail

Spending

Food & Drink Spending Lodging Total

Direct Spending $283,000 $624,000 $1,461,000 $2,368,000

Multipliers

Output 1.34 1.32 1.37 1.70 Earnings 0.29 0.27 0.35 0.40 Jobs 11.21 15.60 11.63 15.83

ADDED ECONOMIC IMPACT ON JO DAVIESS COUNTY

Output $379,000 $823,000 $2,001,000 $3,203,000 Earnings $82,000 $166,000 $505,000 $753,000 Indirect Jobs Held by County Residents 3 10 17 30

TOTAL ECONOMIC IMPACT ON JO DAVIESS COUNTY

Output $5,571,000 Earnings $753,000 Direct Jobs in County na Total Direct and Indirect Jobs for County Residents 30

*values represent the average value over a 20 year projection period.

Multiplier Definitions: Output: Total dollar change in the Jo Daviess economy due to

expenditures by visitors to the museum. Earnings: Total dollar change in earnings of households in Jo Daviess

county due to expenditures by visitors to the museum.

Jobs:

Total change in the number of jobs held by Jo Daviess county residents per $1,000,000 of added output.

6.3.2 State of Illinois

While the majority of the economic impacts from the Galena-Jo Daviess Historical Society and Museum will be felt within Jo Daviess County, the entire state of Illinois will benefit from the direct spending by the museum and its visitors as that spending ultimately ripples through nearby counties and the entire state. We estimate that the $1.9 million spent by the museum for operating expenses and payroll, and the $2.4 million spent by visitors in the local community will trigger an additional $10.1 million in state output, $2.9 million in added household earnings for Illinois residents, and support an additional 99 jobs annually throughout the state across all industries. Table 5 summarizes the projected average annual economic impacts of on-going museum operations and additional visitor spending on the state of Illinois.

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GALENA-JO DAVIESS COUNTY HISTORICAL SOCIETY AND MUSEUM Final Report 6. Economic Impact

TABLE 5

TOTAL ECONOMIC IMPACT OF

GALENA-JO DAVIESS HISTORICAL SOCIETY AND MUSEUM State of Illinois

(in 2009 dollars)

Average Annual*

Operating

ExpendituresEmployee Compensation

Retail, Food & Drink

Spending Total

Direct Spending $1,183,000 $705,000 $2,368,000 $4,256,000

Multipliers

Output 2.29 1.67 2.84 2.38 Earnings 0.81 0.45 0.79 0.69 Jobs 32.38 12.69 27.53 23.26

ADDED ECONOMIC IMPACT ON JO DAVIESS COUNTY

Output $1,616,000 $3,149,000 $5,372,000 $10,137,000 Earnings $571,000 $857,000 $1,501,000 $2,929,000 Indirect Jobs Held by County Residents 23 24 52 99

TOTAL ECONOMIC IMPACT ON JO DAVIESS COUNTY

Output $13,688,000 Earnings $3,634,000 Direct Jobs at New Museum 13 Total Direct and Indirect Jobs for County Residents 112 *values represent the average value over a 20 year projection period.

Multiplier Definitions: Output: Total dollar change in the Illinois economy due to expenditures by visitors

to the museum.

Earnings: Total dollar change in earnings of households in Illinois due to expenditures by visitors to the museum.

Jobs: Total change in the number of jobs held by Illinois residents per $1,000,000 of added output.

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GALENA-JO DAVIESS COUNTY HISTORICAL SOCIETY Final Report Appendix A: Acknowledgements

Appendix A: Acknowledgements

The consultants would like to thank the following people for their valuable assistance in the completion of this report. Special thanks to Nancy Breed, Executive Director of the Galena-Jo Daviess Historical Society, for planning our visit and setting up interviews. Mayor Tom Brusch, City of Galena John Cooke, Community Leader/Fundraiser Marge Cooke, Board Member Maynard Crossland, former Director, Abraham Lincoln Presidential Library and

Museum, Springfield, IL Betsy Eaton, Executive Director, Galena-Jo Daviess County Convention and Visitors

Bureau Jerry Enzler, Executive Director, National Mississippi River Museum and Aquarium Don Fouts, Board Member Lynn Gaber, Community Leader Don Gereau, Community Leader Terri Goodman, City of Dubuque Dale Griemann, Galena School District Superintendant Bill Heinz, Galena Downtown Business Association Cynthia Koch, Director, Franklin Delano Roosevelt Presidential Library and

Museum, Hyde Park, NY Scott Lawlor, Community Leader Diann Marsh, Spirits of the Museum Gordon McKeague, Board Member Dana Meadows, Galena Downtown Business Association Terry Miller, U.S. Grant State Historic Site Mark Moran, City Administrator, City of Galena Carter Newton, Publisher, The Galena Gazette Dave Nunz, Littleton Historical Museum, Littleton, Colorado Dave Oberg, Director, Geneva History Center, Geneva, IL Steve Repp, Board Member John Rutherford, Board Member Ed Schmidt, Galena Area Chamber of Commerce Syd Sincock, Board Member Dan Tindell, Board Member Alice Toebaas, Curator, Galena-Jo Daviess Historical Museum Larry Wiedenheft, Board Chair

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GALENA-JO DAVIESS COUNTY HISTORICAL SOCIETY Final Report Appendix B: Proposed Space List

Appendix B: Proposed Space List

GALENA HISTORY MUSEUM

NSF

A Vestibule 75A Lobby 2,000A Coat Storage 300

A General Storage 750A Admission /Ticketing 300A Gift Shop 800A Multipurpose Room 500

A School Group Backpack Storage 150

A Orientation Theatre 1,200A Men's Restroom 400A Women's Restroom 500

6,975

NSFB Exhibits SpaceB Permanent Exhibits 10,000

B Temporary Exhibits 2,000

Sub - Total Zone B 12,000

NSFCollections Storage / Archive

C Artifact Storage 5,000

C Crating/Loading Dock 1,000

C Isolation Room/ Quarantine 200

C Collection Workshop 500

C Staging Area 500

7,200 0

Public Non- Collection Areas

Non Public Collection Areas

Sub - Total Zone A

Zone

Public Collection Areas

Zone

Zone

Sub - Total Zone C

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GALENA-JO DAVIESS COUNTY HISTORICAL SOCIETY Final Report Appendix B: Proposed Space List

NSFStaff Offices and Work Areas

D Museum Director 150D Curator 150D Retail Office 150D Retail Storage 250D Conference Room 180D Chair and Table Storage 500D Maintenance Shop 300D Exhibit Prop Storage 500D Catering kitchen 200D Storage Closet 50D Development Director 120D Volunteer Desks 100D Administrative secretary 75D Kitchenette 150D Staff Restroom 100D Additional staff offices 500

Technology CenterD Data System Head end 80

D Phone panel Fire alarm control 40

D Telephone control 20

D Security control room 40

General Building ServicesD Mechanical Room 2,500

D Electrical Room 200

D Electrical closets 80D Fire sprinkler entrance control 60D Receiving room 550D Trash room 120D Recycling room 120D Mechanical chases 100D Utility Storage 250

7,635Total Net Area Summary

NSF Percentage Net Area by Zone

Zone A 6,975 21%Zone B 12,000 35%Zone C 7,200 21%Zone D 7,635 23%

Total Net Area 33,810Grossing Factor @1.2 6,762Gross Building Area 40,572

Sub - Total Zone D

Zone Non Public Non Collection Areas

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GALENA-JO DAVIESS COUNTY HISTORICAL SOCIETY AND MUSEUM Final Report Appendix C: Assumptions

Appendix C: Assumptions

(all dollars in 2009)

Base Year 1 Year 2 Year 3

Attendance

Annual Attendance 9,500 50,000 40,000 45,000

Percent Overnight Visitors 62% 62% 62% 62%

Visitors per Group 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

Employment

Existing/Remaining FTE 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

New FTE - 10.5 10.5 10.5

Total 2.5 13.0 13.0 13.0

Payroll (excl. benefits)

Existing/Remaining $87,600 $131,400 $137,900 $144,800

New FTE $375,000 $393,750 $413,400

Total $87,600 $506,400 $531,650 $558,200*assumes 50% increase from base and 5% annual increase through Year 3. Thereafter assumes 3% annual increase in wages. Also assumes benefits equal to 15% of salary.

Other Operating Expenses

Non-Payroll Expenses $115,800 $744,500 $860,100 $925,200

*assumes 3% annual increase in operating costs.

Per Visitor Spending Outside Museum1

Retail Spending $10.60 $10.90 $11.20 $11.50

Food & Beverage Spending $4.80 $4.90 $5.00 $5.10

Lodging2 $40.00 $41.00 $42.00 $43.10

Total Per Visitor $55.40 $56.80 $58.20 $59.701assumes annual increase in sales of 2.5% 2assumes Average Daily Rate at local hotel of $100 per night.

Percent of Spending Attributable to Museum 73% 73% 73%

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GALENA-JO DAVIESS COUNTY HISTORICAL SOCIETY AND MUSEUM Final Report Appendix D: Case Studies: Average Visitor Spending By Museum Patrons

Appendix D: Case Studies: Average Visitor Spending By Museum Patrons

(dollars not adjusted for inflation) Comp 11 Comp 22 Comp 33 Comp 43 Average

Visitor groups 13,800 3,374,000 445,743 na naVisitors per group 2.0 3.0 2.7 na 2.6 Visitor types

Local resident 45% 44% 38% 61% 52%Day-tripper 38% 15% 13% 15% 15%Overnight visitor 16% 41% 49% 24% 33%

Avg. spending per party per trip Local resident $48.00 $49.00 $53.00 na $49.50 Day-tripper $80.00 $70.00 $72.00 na $70.30 Overnight visitor $218.00 $484.00 $469.00 na $481.30

Avg. spending per visitor per trip Local resident $24.00 $16.30 $19.60 $19.50 $18.08 Day-tripper $40.00 $23.30 $26.70 $40.20 $31.95 Overnight visitor $109.00 $161.30 $173.70 $40.20 $101.34

Weighted avg. per visitor $43.40 $76.80 $96.00 $27.60 $47.60 Spending induced by museum visit 84% 66% 67% 100% 73% Percent of spending

In Museum 30% 23% 15% 0% 17%Outside Museum 70% 77% 85% 100% 83%

Spending per visitor by category

food 28% 30% 27% 47% 33% $8.50 $17.70 $22.00 $13.00 $13.00

retail 16% 14% 15% 14% 15% $4.90 $8.30 $12.20 $3.90 $5.80

lodging 11% 33% 38% 18% 25% $3.30 $19.50 $31.00 $5.00 $9.90

other 45% 23% 20% 21% 27% $13.70 $13.60 $16.30 $5.80 $10.80

TOTAL $30.40 $59.10 $81.50 $27.70 $39.50

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GALENA-JO DAVIESS COUNTY HISTORICAL SOCIETY AND MUSEUM Final Report Appendix D: Case Studies: Average Visitor Spending By Museum Patrons

1 "Economic Impacts of the Grand Rapids Art Museum on the Local Economy; The Leaded Glass of Frank Lloyd Wright Exhibit", Daniel J. Stynes, Department of Park, Recreation and Tourism Resources, Michigan State University, March 2002.

2 "Estimating Economic Impacts of Michigan Museums", Daniel J. Stynes, Gail A. Vander Stoep, and Ya-Yen Sun, Department of Park, Recreation and Tourism Resources, Michigan State University, April 2004.

3 "Visitor Awareness and Economic Impacts of MotorCities Hub Sites: Providing a Baseline for Michigan’s Automobile National Heritage Area", Gail A. Vander Stoep, Daniel J. Stynes, and Ya-Yen Sun, Department of Community, Agriculture, Recreation and Resource Studies, Michigan State University, April 2004.

4 "Arts & Economic Prosperity III: The Economic Impact of Nonprofit Arts and Culture Organizations and Their Audiences", Americans for the Arts, 2005.

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GALENA-JO DAVIESS COUNTY HISTORICAL SOCIETY AND MUSEUM Final Report Appendix E: Detailed Economic Impact Projections

Appendix E: Detailed Economic Impact Projections

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APPENDIX E - DETAILED ECONOMIC IMPACT PROJECTIONS

AssumptionsAnnual increase in sales 2.5%Annual increase in operating costs 3.0%All dollars in 2009 dollars

Year Year Year Year Year Year Year1 2 3 4 5 6 7

DIRECT IMPACTS

Attendance 9,500 50,000 40,000 45,000 45,000 45,000 45,000 45,000Overnight Visitors 62% 31,000 24,800 27,900 27,900 27,900 27,900 27,900

Spending Per Visitor Outside MuseumRetail Goods 4.80$             4.92$                    5.04$                   5.17$                     5.30$                    5.43$                    5.57$                    5.71$                   Food & Drink 10.60$          10.87$                  11.14$                 11.42$                   11.70$                  11.99$                  12.29$                  12.60$                 Lodging 40.00$          41.00$                  42.03$                 43.08$                   44.15$                  45.26$                  46.39$                  47.55$                 

Museum OperationsJobs 2.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5Payroll (excluding benefits) 37% 87,600$        506,400$             531,700$            558,200$              574,900$             592,100$             609,900$             628,200$            Non‐payroll operating expenses 63% 115,800$      744,500$             860,100$            925,200$              971,500$             1,000,600$          1,030,600$          1,061,500$         

MULTIPLIER EFFECTS

Jo Daviess County

OperationsPerforming Arts, Museums and Related Activities

Output 1.3299 990,100$             1,143,800$         1,230,400$           1,292,000$          1,330,700$          1,370,600$          1,411,700$         Earnings 0.5139 382,600$             442,000$            475,500$              499,300$             514,200$             529,600$             545,500$            

Jobs 24.0645 18 21 22 23 24 25 26Households

Output 0.5912 299,400$             314,300$            330,000$              339,900$             350,000$             360,600$             371,400$            Earnings 0.1209 61,200$                64,300$              67,500$                 69,500$                71,600$                73,700$                75,900$               

Jobs 4.2838 2 2 2 2 3 3 3Visitor Spending Outside Museum

Retail TradeOutput 1.3406 329,800$             270,400$            311,800$              319,600$             327,600$             335,800$             344,200$            

Earnings 0.2886 71,000$                58,200$              67,100$                 68,800$                70,500$                72,300$                74,100$               Jobs 11.2066 3 2 3 3 3 3 3

Food Service & Drinking PlacesOutput 1.3197 716,900$             587,900$            677,900$              694,800$             712,200$             730,000$             748,300$            

Earnings 0.2668 144,900$             118,900$            137,000$              140,500$             144,000$             147,600$             151,300$            Jobs 15.6001 8 7 8 8 8 9 9

AccomodationsOutput 1.3699 1,741,100$          1,427,700$         1,646,400$           1,687,500$          1,729,700$          1,772,900$          1,817,300$         

Earnings 0.3458 439,500$             360,400$            415,600$              426,000$             436,600$             447,500$             458,700$            Jobs 11.6337 15 12 14 14 15 15 15

TOTAL MULTIPLIER EFFECTSOutput 4,077,300$          3,744,100$         4,196,500$           4,333,800$          4,450,200$          4,569,900$          4,692,900$         

Earnings 1,099,200$          1,043,800$         1,162,700$           1,204,100$          1,236,900$          1,270,700$          1,305,500$         Jobs 46 44 49 50 53 55 56

Base

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APPENDIX E - DETAILED ECONOMIC IMPACT PROJECTIONS

AssumptionsAnnual increase in sales 2.5%Annual increase in operating costs 3.0%All dollars in 2009 dollars

DIRECT IMPACTS

AttendanceOvernight Visitors 62%

Spending Per Visitor Outside MuseumRetail GoodsFood & DrinkLodging

Museum OperationsJobsPayroll (excluding benefits) 37%Non‐payroll operating expenses 63%

MULTIPLIER EFFECTS

Jo Daviess County

OperationsPerforming Arts, Museums and Related Activities

Output 1.3299Earnings 0.5139

Jobs 24.0645Households

Output 0.5912Earnings 0.1209

Jobs 4.2838Visitor Spending Outside Museum

Retail TradeOutput 1.3406

Earnings 0.2886Jobs 11.2066

Food Service & Drinking PlacesOutput 1.3197

Earnings 0.2668Jobs 15.6001

AccomodationsOutput 1.3699

Earnings 0.3458Jobs 11.6337

TOTAL MULTIPLIER EFFECTSOutput

EarningsJobs

Year Year Year Year Year Year Year8 9 10 11 12 13 14

45,000 45,000 45,000 45,000 45,000 45,000 45,00027,900 27,900 27,900 27,900 27,900 27,900 27,900

5.85$                    5.99$                    6.14$                    6.30$                     6.46$                    6.62$                    6.78$                   12.92$                  13.24$                  13.57$                  13.91$                   14.26$                  14.61$                  14.98$                 48.74$                  49.95$                  51.20$                  52.48$                   53.80$                  55.14$                  56.52$                 

10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5647,000$             666,400$             686,400$             707,000$              728,200$             750,000$             772,500$            

1,093,300$          1,126,100$          1,159,900$          1,194,700$           1,230,500$          1,267,400$          1,305,400$         

1,454,000$          1,497,600$          1,542,600$          1,588,800$           1,636,400$          1,685,500$          1,736,100$         561,800$             578,700$             596,100$             614,000$              632,400$             651,300$             670,800$            

26 27 28 29 30 30 31

382,500$             394,000$             405,800$             418,000$              430,500$             443,400$             456,700$            78,200$                80,600$                83,000$                85,500$                 88,000$                90,700$                93,400$               

3 3 3 3 3 3 3

352,800$             361,600$             370,700$             379,900$              389,400$             399,200$             409,200$            76,000$                77,900$                79,800$                81,800$                 83,800$                85,900$                88,100$               

3 3 3 3 3 3 3

767,000$             786,200$             805,800$             826,000$              846,600$             867,800$             889,500$            155,100$             158,900$             162,900$             167,000$              171,200$             175,400$             179,800$            

9 9 10 10 10 10 11

1,862,700$          1,909,300$          1,957,000$          2,005,900$           2,056,100$          2,107,500$          2,160,200$         470,200$             482,000$             494,000$             506,400$              519,000$             532,000$             545,300$            

16 16 17 17 17 18 18

4,819,000$          4,948,700$          5,081,900$          5,218,600$           5,359,000$          5,503,400$          5,651,700$         1,341,300$          1,378,100$          1,415,800$          1,454,700$           1,494,400$          1,535,300$          1,577,400$         

57 58 61 62 63 64 66

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APPENDIX E - DETAILED ECONOMIC IMPACT PROJECTIONS

AssumptionsAnnual increase in sales 2.5%Annual increase in operating costs 3.0%All dollars in 2009 dollars

DIRECT IMPACTS

AttendanceOvernight Visitors 62%

Spending Per Visitor Outside MuseumRetail GoodsFood & DrinkLodging

Museum OperationsJobsPayroll (excluding benefits) 37%Non‐payroll operating expenses 63%

MULTIPLIER EFFECTS

Jo Daviess County

OperationsPerforming Arts, Museums and Related Activities

Output 1.3299Earnings 0.5139

Jobs 24.0645Households

Output 0.5912Earnings 0.1209

Jobs 4.2838Visitor Spending Outside Museum

Retail TradeOutput 1.3406

Earnings 0.2886Jobs 11.2066

Food Service & Drinking PlacesOutput 1.3197

Earnings 0.2668Jobs 15.6001

AccomodationsOutput 1.3699

Earnings 0.3458Jobs 11.6337

TOTAL MULTIPLIER EFFECTSOutput

EarningsJobs

Year Year Year Year Year Year Average15 16 17 18 19 20 Year

45,000 45,000 45,000 45,000 45,000 45,000 45,00027,900 27,900 27,900 27,900 27,900 27,900 27,900

6.95$                    7.13$                    7.30$                    7.49$                     7.67$                    7.87$                      6.28$                    15.35$                  15.74$                  16.13$                  16.53$                   16.95$                  17.37$                   13.88$                  57.93$                  59.38$                  60.86$                  62.39$                   63.95$                  65.54$                   52.37$                  

10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5795,700$             819,600$             844,200$             869,500$              895,600$             922,500$               705,300$              

1,344,600$          1,384,900$          1,426,400$          1,469,200$           1,513,300$          1,558,700$            1,183,400$          

1,788,200$          1,841,800$          1,897,000$          1,953,900$           2,012,500$          2,072,900$            1,574,000$          691,000$             711,700$             733,000$             755,000$              777,700$             801,000$               608,000$              

32 33 34 35 36 38 28

470,400$             484,500$             499,100$             514,000$              529,500$             545,400$               417,000$              96,200$                99,100$                102,100$             105,100$              108,300$             111,500$               85,000$                

3 4 4 4 4 4 3

419,400$             429,900$             440,600$             451,600$              462,900$             474,500$               379,000$              90,300$                92,500$                94,900$                97,200$                 99,700$                102,100$               82,000$                

4 4 4 4 4 4 3

911,700$             934,500$             957,900$             981,800$              1,006,300$          1,031,500$            824,000$              184,300$             188,900$             193,600$             198,500$              203,400$             208,500$               167,000$              

11 11 11 12 12 12 10

2,214,200$          2,269,500$          2,326,300$          2,384,400$           2,444,000$          2,505,100$            2,001,000$          558,900$             572,900$             587,200$             601,900$              616,900$             632,400$               505,000$              

19 19 20 20 21 21 17

5,803,900$          5,960,200$          6,120,900$          6,285,700$           6,455,200$          6,629,400$            5,195,000$          1,620,700$          1,665,100$          1,710,800$          1,757,700$           1,806,000$          1,855,500$            1,447,000$          

69 71 73 75 77 79 61

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APPENDIX E - DETAILED ECONOMIC IMPACT PROJECTIONS

Year Year Year Year Year Year Year1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Base

State of Illinois

OperationsPerforming Arts, Museums and Related Activities

Output 2.2907 1,705,400$          1,970,200$         2,119,400$           2,225,400$          2,292,100$          2,360,800$          2,431,600$         Earnings 0.8093 602,500$             696,100$            748,800$              786,200$             809,800$             834,100$             859,100$            

Jobs 32.3757 24 28 30 31 32 33 34Households

Output 1.6672 844,300$             886,500$            930,600$              958,500$             987,100$             1,016,800$          1,047,300$         Earnings 0.4535 229,700$             241,100$            253,100$              260,700$             268,500$             276,600$             284,900$            

Jobs 12.6906 6 7 7 7 8 8 8Visitor Spending Outside Museum

Retail TradeOutput 2.2763 560,000$             459,200$            529,500$              542,700$             556,300$             570,200$             584,500$            

Earnings 0.6717 165,200$             135,500$            156,200$              160,100$             164,200$             168,300$             172,500$            Jobs 22.8651 6 5 5 5 6 6 6

Food Service & Drinking PlacesOutput 2.3788 1,292,300$          1,059,700$         1,221,900$           1,252,500$          1,283,800$          1,315,900$          1,348,800$         

Earnings 0.631 342,800$             281,100$            324,100$              332,200$             340,500$             349,100$             357,800$            Jobs 28.1006 15 13 14 15 15 16 16

AccomodationsOutput 2.2203 2,822,000$          2,314,000$         2,668,400$           2,735,100$          2,803,500$          2,873,600$          2,945,400$         

Earnings 0.6277 797,800$             654,200$            754,400$              773,200$             792,600$             812,400$             832,700$            Jobs 18.9732 24 20 23 23 24 25 25

TOTAL MULTIPLIER EFFECTSOutput 7,224,000$          6,689,600$         7,469,800$           7,714,200$          7,922,800$          8,137,300$          8,357,600$         

Earnings 2,138,000$          2,008,000$         2,236,600$           2,312,400$          2,375,600$          2,440,500$          2,507,000$         Jobs 75 73 79 81 85 88 89

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APPENDIX E - DETAILED ECONOMIC IMPACT PROJECTIONS

State of Illinois

OperationsPerforming Arts, Museums and Related Activities

Output 2.2907Earnings 0.8093

Jobs 32.3757Households

Output 1.6672Earnings 0.4535

Jobs 12.6906Visitor Spending Outside Museum

Retail TradeOutput 2.2763

Earnings 0.6717Jobs 22.8651

Food Service & Drinking PlacesOutput 2.3788

Earnings 0.631Jobs 28.1006

AccomodationsOutput 2.2203

Earnings 0.6277Jobs 18.9732

TOTAL MULTIPLIER EFFECTSOutput

EarningsJobs

Year Year Year Year Year Year Year8 9 10 11 12 13 14

2,504,400$          2,579,600$          2,657,000$          2,736,700$           2,818,700$          2,903,200$          2,990,300$         884,800$             911,400$             938,700$             966,900$              995,800$             1,025,700$          1,056,500$         

35 36 38 39 40 41 42

1,078,700$          1,111,000$          1,144,400$          1,178,700$           1,214,100$          1,250,400$          1,287,900$         293,400$             302,200$             311,300$             320,600$              330,200$             340,100$             350,300$            

8 8 9 9 9 10 10

599,100$             614,000$             629,400$             645,100$              661,300$             677,800$             694,700$            176,800$             181,200$             185,700$             190,400$              195,100$             200,000$             205,000$            

6 6 6 6 7 7 7

1,382,500$          1,417,100$          1,452,500$          1,488,800$           1,526,000$          1,564,200$          1,603,300$         366,700$             375,900$             385,300$             394,900$              404,800$             414,900$             425,300$            

16 17 17 18 18 18 19

3,019,000$          3,094,500$          3,171,900$          3,251,200$           3,332,400$          3,415,800$          3,501,100$         853,500$             874,800$             896,700$             919,100$              942,100$             965,700$             989,800$            

26 26 27 28 28 29 30

8,583,700$          8,816,200$          9,055,200$          9,300,500$           9,552,500$          9,811,400$          10,077,300$       2,575,200$          2,645,500$          2,717,700$          2,791,900$           2,868,000$          2,946,400$          3,026,900$         

91 93 97 100 102 105 108

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APPENDIX E - DETAILED ECONOMIC IMPACT PROJECTIONS

State of Illinois

OperationsPerforming Arts, Museums and Related Activities

Output 2.2907Earnings 0.8093

Jobs 32.3757Households

Output 1.6672Earnings 0.4535

Jobs 12.6906Visitor Spending Outside Museum

Retail TradeOutput 2.2763

Earnings 0.6717Jobs 22.8651

Food Service & Drinking PlacesOutput 2.3788

Earnings 0.631Jobs 28.1006

AccomodationsOutput 2.2203

Earnings 0.6277Jobs 18.9732

TOTAL MULTIPLIER EFFECTSOutput

EarningsJobs

Year Year Year Year Year Year Average15 16 17 18 19 20 Year

3,080,100$          3,172,400$          3,267,500$          3,365,500$           3,466,500$          3,570,500$            2,711,000$          1,088,200$          1,120,800$          1,154,400$          1,189,000$           1,224,700$          1,261,500$            958,000$              

44 45 46 48 49 50 38

1,326,600$          1,366,400$          1,407,500$          1,449,600$           1,493,100$          1,538,000$            1,176,000$          360,800$             371,700$             382,800$             394,300$              406,200$             418,400$               320,000$              

10 10 11 11 11 12 9

712,100$             729,900$             748,200$             766,900$              786,000$             805,700$               644,000$              210,100$             215,400$             220,800$             226,300$              231,900$             237,700$               190,000$              

7 7 8 8 8 8 7

1,643,400$          1,684,500$          1,726,600$          1,769,700$           1,814,000$          1,859,300$            1,485,000$          435,900$             446,800$             458,000$             469,400$              481,200$             493,200$               394,000$              

19 20 20 21 21 22 18

3,588,700$          3,678,400$          3,770,300$          3,864,600$           3,961,200$          4,060,300$            3,244,000$          1,014,600$          1,039,900$          1,065,900$          1,092,600$           1,119,900$          1,147,900$            917,000$              

31 31 32 33 34 35 28

10,350,900$        10,631,600$        10,920,100$        11,216,300$         11,520,800$        11,833,800$          9,259,000$          3,109,600$          3,194,600$          3,281,900$          3,371,600$           3,463,900$          3,558,700$            2,779,000$          

111 113 117 121 123 127 99

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