GAINS databasesLinks and interactions with the

international reporting processes

UNECE TFEIP/EIONET meetingDublin, Ireland, 23-24 October, 2007

Z.KlimontEMEP Centre for Integrated Assessment Modelling (CIAM)

Outline

• What is GAINS?

• What data is stored in GAINS?

• What is the origin of data?

• Where is GAINS?

GAINS A tool to analyze synergies between air pollution and GHGs

• GAINS: GHG-Air pollution INteractions and Synergies

• Extension of RAINS integrated assessment model for air pollution to GHGs

• CO2, CH4, N2O, HFC, PFC, SF6

in addition to SO2, NOx, VOC, NH3, PM

• Country-by-country, 43 regions in Europe, up to 2030

Multi-pollutant/multi-effect analysisfor identifying cost-effective policy scenarios

SO2 NOx VOCNH3PM

Health AcidificationEutrophication Ozone

Policy targets

IIASA’s RAINScomputer model

The GAINS approachfor identifying cost-effective emission control strategies(GHG-Air pollution INteractions and Synergies )

SO2 NOx VOCNH3PM

Health AcidificationEutrophication Ozone

Policy targets on air quality

IIASA’s GAINSoptimization model

GHGs

Policy target on

GHG emissions

Uniform or effect-based scenarios?

REF

G5/3

G5/2

G5/1

UNIFORMPER CAPITAEMISSIONS

UNIFORM% REDUCTION

0

5

10

15

20

200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600

Population exposure index (million persons.ppm.hours)

Co

sts

ab

ov

e R

EF

( Bil

lio

n E

UR

O/y

r)

Optimization

• Linear optimization of air pollution control strategies in RAINS/GAINS:

Objective: minimize (Costs)s.t. EnvEffectk < Limitk

Minimize costs, such that environmental effects do not exceed pre-defined limits

(there are additional technology constraints, e.g.– maximum application rates– vintage structure– etc)

• RAINS optimization:– Decides how far to move up the cost curve

(keep underlying activity fix!)– Exclude multi-pollutant technologies

• GAINS optimization– Decides which technology to use (incl. multi-pollutant)– If cost-effective and possible, change the underlying activity

(through e.g. efficiency improvement)

Differences between GAINS and RAINS in the optimization (technology representation)

What data is stored in GAINS? (1)

• Not emissions!

• However, emissions reported to UNECE and UNFCCC are used for validation purposes and create the basis for further exchange to resolve discrepancies.

What data is stored in GAINS? (2)

• Activity data– energy use, – industrial production, – livestock numbers, – fertilizer use, – waste production, – vehicle numbers, – etc.

• Activity data parameters – shares of specific combustion installations, – manure management systems,– Vintage data – etc.

• Emission factors (direct input)

What data is stored in GAINS? (3)

• Parameters for calculation of emission factors– sulfur and ash content, – N-excretion, – sulfur and ash retention, – fuel volatility, – PM size speciation,– solvent content – etc.

• Reduction efficiencies of abatement options

• Cost parameters of abatement measures and constraints on their application

• Actual and projected penetration rate of control technology

• Pollutant transfer coefficients - originate from EMEP MSC-W

• Critical loads – originate from CCE

What is the origin of GAINS data? [activities and activity parameters]

• Historical (1990,1995,2000, 2005)– Statistics (IEA, Eurostat, FAO, IFA, EFMA)– Communication with national experts (consultations)– UNECE and UNFCCC submissions,– Industrial data (consultations CEPE, EFMA, other)– Models (PRIMES, TREMOVE, CAPRI), – Literature studies, and– Own assessments

• Forecasts (until 2030) – Communication with national experts (consultations)– UNECE and UNFCCC submissions,– Industrial data (consultations),– Models (PRIMES, TREMOVE, CAPRI, FAO, EFMA),– Literature studies

What is the origin of GAINS data? [emission factors and ef parameters, reduction efficiencies and costs of abatement]]

• Guidebooks (CORINAIR/EMEP, AP-42, BUWAL)• UNECE Expert Groups• National submissions (consultations)• International databases, e.g., CEPMEIP• Industrial associations• Peer-reviewed literature• Grey literature• Own expertise

Scope and timing of bilateral consultations (NEC)

• IIASA met with representatives of 22 countries and 6 industrial associations

• Meetings took 45 days over a period 25 March – 23 November 2005

• 127 national and industrial experts participated

• Information collected/verified:

– National scenarios up to 2020 for energy, transport, agriculture, industrial processes, and VOC sources

– Emission factors and other country-specific parameters

– “Current legislation” penetration of emission control technologies, potential for further controls and their costs

• Exchange of information till mid-September 2006

Where is GAINS?

The background information available from:

• Home of GAINS:http://www.iiasa.ac.at/rains/

• The GainsWeb on line model: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/apd/gains/EU/index.login

• The GAINS documentation:http://www.iiasa.ac.at/rains/gains-methodology.html

• The GAINS review: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/rains/review.html