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May 2011 TFEIP-EIONET Meeting Stockholm Transport panel 1
Eurostat project
Analysis of GHG emissions
in air transport
May 2011 TFEIP-EIONET Meeting Stockholm Transport panel 2
How it started….
• Experiences made by CSO Ireland with mapping administrative data and statistical data
• Data available at the EEA website EMEP/CORINAIR
• Using Eurostat Statistical data without putting extra burden to Member States
May 2011 TFEIP-EIONET Meeting Stockholm Transport panel 3
Project objectives
Recommendations for developing methodsenabling integrating available Eurostat data with data on GHG emissions for air transport available in other organisations.
Proposals for information disseminationhow results could be made available to a larger audience using the Eurostat website.
Description of data sourcesIndication of the coverage and quality of data available in different data sources.
May 2011 TFEIP-EIONET Meeting Stockholm Transport panel 4
Project activities
Activity 1: Revision of the State- of-Art in relation to Air Transport Emissions modellingRevision of the most recent developments in the literature related to GHG emissions in air transport
Activity 2: Preliminary Inventory of Data Sources Inventory of relevant data sources from EU institutions in order to create a clearer picture of the available information
May 2011 TFEIP-EIONET Meeting Stockholm Transport panel 5
Project activities
Activity 3: Assessment of possibilities for data linkage and production of indicators
Proposals for the use of available transport data in Eurostat in linkage with other sources, so that indicators on GHG emissions by air transport can be produced systematically.
Activity 4: Reporting and Dissemination of results
Preparation of a detailed analysis report and a power point presentation summarising the results of the study and including recommendations, to be presented during international meetings
May 2011 TFEIP-EIONET Meeting Stockholm Transport panel 6
Methodology
EMEP/EEA model:
• Based on the “detailed methodology” of the LTO and cruise model EMEP/EEA
• Based on modelled fuel burn ratio over distances flown by typical aircraft types
• Default method for preparing emission inventories of air traffic in the EU and countries under the EMEP/CLRTAP protocol
May 2011 TFEIP-EIONET Meeting Stockholm Transport panel 7
Methodology
SET model:
Based on the integrated Small Emitters’ Tool (Eurocontrol)
Based on empirical statistical averaged fuel burn ratios over distances flown by many different aircraft types
Accepted alternative for reporting by Small Emitters in the EU ETS legislation.
May 2011 TFEIP-EIONET Meeting Stockholm Transport panel 8
Input data
1. Air traffic:
origin and destination aircraft type number of flights volume of passengers and freight carried
2. Distances covered
3. Fuel consumed by respective aircraft
4. Emission factors
May 2011 TFEIP-EIONET Meeting Stockholm Transport panel 9
Input data – air traffic
YEAR Year
PERIOD Month of the year
AD 1 for arrival, 2 for departure
RAIRPORT Reporting airport
PARAIRPORT Partner airport
PASSFREIGH 1 for a passenger, 2 for a cargo flight
SCHENDS 1 for a scheduled, 2 for an unscheduled flight
AIRCRFTTY Type of aircraft
AIRLINEC Airline
PAX Number of passengers on board
FREIGHT Volume of freight and mail on board (t)
FLIGHT Number of flights per reporting time period
SEATAV Number of seats available on board
May 2011 TFEIP-EIONET Meeting Stockholm Transport panel 10
Input data – air traffic constraints
Double Counting
Avoidance of double-counting is possible when (1) using unique flight identification numbers or (2) only departure declarations for the national and intra-EU flights are used
Aircraft Types
Some aircrafts have to be substituted by other generic aircraft types (e.g. Airbus 300 substituted by the generic A310).
May 2011 TFEIP-EIONET Meeting Stockholm Transport panel 11
Input data – air traffic constraints
Airport codes
The pair airport code not always disclosed
Airline information
Airline information is not always transmitted
(confidentiality issue)
Traffic data for emission calculations
Data on passengers, seats available and freight used to allocate the emissions to passengers and cargo
May 2011 TFEIP-EIONET Meeting Stockholm Transport panel 12
Input data: Airport to airport distances
The great-circle distance (WebILSE database) allows to obtain the shortest distance for each airport pair
Problem: the real distances covered often differ from the shortest distance between the airports
Solution: correction factor
May 2011 TFEIP-EIONET Meeting Stockholm Transport panel 13
Input data: Aircraft databases
ICAO Type Designator
Manufacturer Model Description
Engine type
Engine count
WTC
A310 AIRBUS CC-150 Polaris
Landplane Jet 2 H
A320 AIRBUS A-320 Landplane Jet 2 M
A332 AIRBUS A-330-200
Landplane Jet 2 H
A333 AIRBUS A-330-300
Landplane Jet 2 H
A342 AIRBUS A-340-200
Landplane Jet 4 H
May 2011 TFEIP-EIONET Meeting Stockholm Transport panel 14
Input data: Aircraft databases
Problem:
No information that is linked to the emission data
Limited number of aircraft types (in EMEP/EEA and SET) with respect to real world and in ProdA1 database
May 2011 TFEIP-EIONET Meeting Stockholm Transport panel 15
Input data: Emission factors
What they are?
Fixed ratios between activity levels and amount of polluants produced by the activity level
Two types: Fuel-dependant emission factors Technology-dependant emission factors
May 2011 TFEIP-EIONET Meeting Stockholm Transport panel 16
May 2011 TFEIP-EIONET Meeting Stockholm Transport panel 17
May 2011 TFEIP-EIONET Meeting Stockholm Transport panel 18
Future….. An example:integrating data on emission types, in already used maps such as….
May 2011 TFEIP-EIONET Meeting Stockholm Transport panel 19
Recommendations
Which model?
SET model is an option, because:
97% of aircraft types presented in Eurostat air traffic data is
covered by this model
May 2011 TFEIP-EIONET Meeting Stockholm Transport panel 20
Recommendations
Which aircraft database?
ICAO aircraft codes database, because:
Eurostat and SET use ICAO codes
Small issue: 3% of aircraft types from Eurostat database
are not included
Recommendation: use surrogate aircraft
May 2011 TFEIP-EIONET Meeting Stockholm Transport panel 21
Recommendations
How to calculate the distance of an airport pair?
Use a dynamical distance calculation:
Table of airport pairs (to be created) Great circle distance formula Correction factor
May 2011 TFEIP-EIONET Meeting Stockholm Transport panel 22
What questions can be answered now?
How much CO2 is emitted by aircraft in Europe in year xxxx?
How much CO2 is emitted by aircraft in a specific country?
How much CO2 is emitted between 1 specific airport pair?
How much CO2 is emitted by an aircraft from a specific type?
How much CO2 is emitted due to passenger transport?
How much CO2 is emitted due to freight transport?
What is the overall trend in specific CO2-emission per passenger.km?
What is the overall trend in specific CO2-emission per freight tonne.km?
SUMMARY: Effects of air traffic evolution and technological evolution on emissions can be monitored
May 2011 TFEIP-EIONET Meeting Stockholm Transport panel 23
and what can not be answered…
What is the difference in CO2-emissions between individual airline operators flying with the same aircraft type?
What is the effect of improved flight procedures (like CDA) on CO2-emissions of aircraft?
What is the effect of rerouting of aircraft on CO2-emissions as a consequence certain reasons like volcanic eruptions and extreme weather events like thunderstorms?
What is the effect of improved routing of aircraft by improved centralised flight planning?
SUMMARY: Effects of changes on actual flight profiles on emissions cannot be monitored
May 2011 TFEIP-EIONET Meeting Stockholm Transport panel 24
What could be the next step…..
Use the Eurostat data collection to produce for longer time series air traffic GHG-emissions.
Objectives:- find solutions and work-around for practical problems- test the produced dataset against Eurostat criteria for publication- integration in the Eurostat statistical production process