8/6/2019 FX Weekly Commentary June 5-10 2011
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June 5th
2011 June 10th
2011
Weekly FX CommentaryWeekly FX Commentary
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Authors: Anthony Rousseau & James Putra
FX Market Flash
Pair Assessment Comment
AUDUSD
AUDUSD is a bullish picture from the long term perspective,
talks about the pair having a possible top in place at 1.1000 level
which isthe most recent all time highs, with continued weakness in
the USD we may see it stay at these levels, but for the Aussie
economic
overview, we see weakness coming for the near term on the docket
for economic data we have the RBS rate decision which isexpected to
take the wait and see posture which may bring weakness for the
short term to the currency, for upside resistance we lookat 1.0746,
1.0808 1.0890, 1.1000Immediate support for downside, 1.0682 1.0604,
1.0550 1.0479
Recommendation is to start the week we may see a continued move
up from last week to the immediate resistance levels but
shortlived, look to take profits or reduce risk at those levels,
with RBA rate decision Tuesday we may see a reverse back down to
mostrecent support and may continue that direction for the rest of
the month. Watch for decision on Tuesday for cleared picture of
directionfor the rest of month. Possible large move down for rest
of month.
Bullish
EURUSD
EURUSD current picture is changing back bullish, but at a very
critical juncture, with many factors economically waiting to
unravelbringing the current strength of the currency to a halt we
may see this current move up short lived, with rate decision
Thursdayexpected to remain same, we will wait to see when
speculation on next rate hike, if no clear direction we will see
this pair come backdown to a bearish picture. Currently trading at
most current resistance of 1.4642 1.4700 and 1.4800 levels look to
be next majorresistance on way up. On downside support look for
1.4569 1.4483 and 1.4450.
Recommendation would be to watch for cycle plays prior to
Thursday and after Thursday we will see pair to break into
direction that willdrive for the rest of month. Watch for updates
on economic stability throughout week. Weekly looking to topple and
looking forThursdays event to support this outlook, market
sentiment is short this pair long term, this can change Thursday.
If Thursday's outlookis bleak we should be looking for long-term
short back down to the 1.3600 levels.
Neutral
EURJPY
EURJPY is trading near some strong daily resistance around
117.80, would need to see a strong push up in EURUSD or USDJPY
tobreak this to continue move up. Still trading in a downward
channel off it's high from 123 and 121.80. Without the EURUSD push
up orthe USDJPY push up this pair will probable continue to cycle
at current support and resistance. Immediate resistance at 117.80
and118.36-50 immediate support is 117.18 116.79 116.17 115.66
Recommendation: Trades this week will continue to be cycle plays
until we see the EURUSD and USDJPY make decisive moves into
adirection, Current strength is bullish, caution around resistance
levels, unlikely to break without event support to move
through.
Neutral
GBPUSD
GBPUSD current move up from last weeks dollar weakness looks to
be capped at immediate resistance at 1.6434, 1.6482 and 1.6501,a
clear break above 1.6546 will give credence to a move back up to
April high of 1.6744. This does not look likely with the
weakeconomic outlook in the UK, Thursday is the rate decision and
no sign of raising rates will certainly push this pair back down to
mostrecent lows of 1.6057.
Recommendation: Look for cycle plays this week until Thursday
which should give clearer direction for the rest of the month.
Currentstrength may continue for the beginning of the week. Looking
for move for the month to move to the bearish side to break lows
the UKeconomic outlook is bleak and no rate hike insight, this
looks like a short possibility to 1.5600 by end of month, Thursday
will givegreater support for this outlook.
Bearish
GBPJPY
GBPJPY is currently very weak from long term picture. Current
week outlook will remain bearish for the pair considering YEN
strengthand GBP weakness. The pair has some strong support levels
around 131 and 130.00 levels a break their will push towards 128
levels.Look to see if USDJPY breaks lows this pair will likely
follow. Also take caution holding short below these lowest lows,
BOJ interveneswe will see a spike up in this pair as well. Look for
cycle plays on short side with this pair, immediate resistance will
be 132.58 132.90133.42, if GBPUSD drops this week after interest
rates expect this pair to follow, looking for shorts after
rally's.
Bearish
GBPCHF
GBPCHF most likely to rally throughout the week after falling to
all time lows along with USDCHF. This pair has wide swings,
greatcycle plays if can place stop in good spot, watch for USDCHF
and GBPUSD when taking this pair, late in week expect GBP
weaknesswhich continues to show bearish outlook for GBPCHF, also
may see USDCHF rally up some, but still USDCHF and GBPCHF at all
timelows, once the USD starts it's recovery bullish again then we
may see USDCHF Change bearish outlook, until then we see both
thesepairs to continue bearish plays after rallies, careful of
consolidation after large move last week.
Bearish
USDJPY
USDJPY weekly still very weak, looking for the bottom in the
80.04-79.58 range to hold, a break of these levels will be back in
all timelow range. Once these levels break we may see panic slides
and also need to take into consideration the BOJ taking counter
action toweaken their currency which would hold this pair up. With
the data that came out Friday for NFP so weak, gives little
strength for the
USD at the moment, looking for these immediate support levels to
hold for the long term picture of the bear run to be coming to an
end.With last weeks data the pair is weak and expected weakness may
continue to start this week. Careful of longs. Not much US news
thisweek to push this pair to highs, may see some continued cycling
in this pair. Immediate resistance on the way up starts at 80.90,
81.3081.50.
Recommendation for this pair would be to standby. May not be
much money to be made on cycle plays, hold aside for when
recoveryfor long side starts and economic data supports bullish
move. Also a break below 80.00 brings a high probability of BOJ
intervention.
Neutral
NZDUSD
NZDUSD has been very strong for sometime now and still looking
to possible break up to .8300 and .8500, with this weeks
ratedecision on Wednesday we will see some cycle plays here and a
possible continued bullish move up towards higher highs, if
newsWednesday is bleak for RBnZ which is not likely, we may see a
break back down to most recent support of .8070 .8000, .7940.
Recommendations: This is a good pair for some straight cycle
plays with not very large swings, good for tight stops. Look for
cycleplays in continued strength, this pair tends to make its moves
in the Tokyo market along with AUDUSD
Bullish
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