www.FuturoVenezuela.orgSociedad Mundial del FuturoVENEZUELA

Presentation about National SOFI’s Millennium Project, Venezuela Node

José Luis CordeiroWashington, July 30, 2004

• The future is no longer what it used to be.

Mafalda

www.FuturoVenezuela.orgSociedad Mundial del FuturoVENEZUELA

• What variables should be included in a national SOFI?

• How can very different variables be combined?

• How can the variables be forecast?

• How can the variables be weighted?

• How can double accounting be avoided?

Design of National SOFI’s

www.FuturoVenezuela.orgSociedad Mundial del FuturoVENEZUELA

• SOFI selection of variables

• SOFI data collection

• Forecasting the data (TIA)

• Analysis

• National SOFI report

Procedure for National SOFI’s

www.FuturoVenezuela.orgSociedad Mundial del FuturoVENEZUELA

1. Infant mortality rate (deaths per 1,000 live births)2. Food availability (calories per capita in low–income countries)3. GDP per capita, PPP (constant 1995 dollars)4. Share of households with access to safe water (15 most populated countries)5. Mean monthly carbon dioxide in atmosphere (ppm) 6. Annual population addition (million)7. Percent unemployed (world)8. Literacy rate, adult total (in low- and middle-income countries)9. Annual AIDS deaths (million)10. Life expectancy (world)11. Number of armed conflicts (those with at least 1,000 deaths per year)12. Developing-country debt 13. Forestlands (million hectares)14. People living on less than $2 per day (billion, without China)15. Terrorist attacks (number of people killed or wounded)16. Violent crime (per 100,000 population, in 17 countries)17. Share of population living in countries that are not free18. Secondary school enrollment (% of school age)19. Share of population with access to health care (15 most populated countries)20. Number of countries having or thought to have nuclear capacity

Variables in the 2003 SOFIwww.FuturoVenezuela.orgSociedad Mundial del Futuro

VENEZUELA

Missing data for National SOFI’sInfant Mortality Unemployment AIDS Deaths Life Expectancy Debt/gdp

School Enrollment

Argentina1983, 1984, 1986, 1988, 1989, 1991,

1994

1983, 1984, 1986, 1988, 1989, 1991, 1993, 1994, 1996,

1998, 1999

1986, 19871989, 1990, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995

Brasil

1983, 1984, 1986, 1988, 1989, 1991, 1993, 1994, 1996,

1998, 1999

1993, 1996

1983, 1984, 1986, 1988, 1989, 1991, 1993, 1994, 1996,

1998, 1999

1986, 1987

Canada 19991983, 1984, 1986, 1993, 1994, 1996,

1998, 1999

1986, 1987, 1988, 1989

Chile

1983, 1984, 1986, 1988, 1989, 1991, 1993, 1994, 1996,

1998, 1999

1986, 1987

Colombia

1983, 1984, 1986, 1988, 1989, 1991, 1993, 1994, 1996,

1998, 1999

1983, 1984, 1986, 1988, 1989, 1991, 1993, 1994, 1996,

1998, 1999

1986, 1987 1990

Ecuador

1983, 1984, 1986, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1993, 1994, 1996,

1998, 1999

1988, 1990, 1995 2001

1983, 1984, 1986, 1988, 1989, 1991, 1993, 1994, 1996,

1998, 1999

1986, 1987

Mexico

1983, 1984, 1986, 1988, 1989, 1991, 1993, 1994, 1996,

1998, 1999

1989, 1990

1983, 1984, 1986, 1988, 1989, 1991, 1993, 1994, 1996,

1998, 1999

1986, 1987

Peru1983, 1986, 1988, 1989, 1991, 1993, 1994, 1996, 1999

1988, 1990, 1995

1983, 1984, 1986, 1988, 1989, 1991, 1993, 1994, 1996,

1998, 1999

1986, 1987

Venezuela1983, 1984, 1986, 1988, 1989, 1991,

1993, 1999

1983, 1984, 1986, 1988, 1989, 1991, 1993, 1994, 1996,

1998, 1999

1986, 1987

www.FuturoVenezuela.orgSociedad Mundial del FuturoVENEZUELA

USA Chile Venezuela Canada Brazil

Argentina Mexico Colombia Ecuador Peru

SOFI 2004

0,00,1

0,20,3

0,40,5

0,60,7

0,80,9

1,01,1

1,21,3

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

SOFI 2004

0,00,1

0,20,3

0,40,5

0,60,7

0,80,9

1,01,1

1,21,3

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

National SOFI’s (in the Americas)

www.FuturoVenezuela.orgSociedad Mundial del FuturoVENEZUELA

  Argentiina Brazil Canada Chile Colombia Ecuador Mexico Peru Venezuela USA

1983 0,785 0,815 1,019 1,000 1,040 1,489 0,993 1,058 1,195 0,805

1984 1,108 0,827 1,031 1,017 1,017 1,505 0,995 1,045 1,172 0,826

1985 0,936 0,830 1,040 0,573 0,876 1,279 0,840 0,782 0,991 0,832

1986 0,966 0,877 1,044 0,671 0,888 1,188 0,836 0,814 0,998 0,830

1987 0,975 0,902 1,050 0,747 0,916 0,997 0,833 0,874 1,016 0,840

1988 0,975 0,928 1,059 0,840 0,923 0,914 0,828 0,911 1,032 0,847

1989 0,842 0,947 1,012 0,936 0,929 0,841 0,863 0,862 0,898 0,852

1990 0,974 0,890 0,905 0,776 0,904 0,884 0,864 0,819 0,804 0,909

1991 1,035 0,892 0,878 0,832 0,937 0,926 0,875 0,846 0,849 0,891

1992 1,045 0,883 0,865 0,869 0,977 0,944 0,893 0,789 0,860 0,891

1993 1,026 0,866 0,856 0,880 1,006 0,972 0,897 0,738 0,841 0,891

1994 1,010 0,901 0,867 0,884 1,031 1,050 0,901 0,824 0,813 0,901

1995 0,918 0,940 0,876 0,939 1,030 1,109 0,816 0,871 0,903 0,905

1996 0,935 0,961 0,876 0,963 0,997 1,117 0,886 0,922 0,912 0,928

1997 0,968 0,962 0,899 0,970 1,001 1,121 0,947 0,963 0,964 0,960

1998 0,970 0,970 0,923 0,917 0,972 1,078 0,959 0,969 0,971 0,979

1999 0,968 0,906 0,944 0,886 0,877 0,880 0,986 0,975 0,877 0,997

2000 0,975 0,932 0,984 0,887 0,877 0,978 0,998 0,993 1,002 1,021

2001 0,943 0,921 0,997 0,856 0,951 1,098 1,007 1,028 1,009 1,026

2002 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

2003 1,002 1,016 0,976 1,020 1,003 0,999 0,992 1,008 1,001 1,007

2004 1,004 1,017 0,983 1,036 1,007 1,007 1,001 0,995 1,007 1,015

2005 1,006 1,029 0,990 1,052 1,011 1,006 1,010 1,002 1,013 1,022

2006 1,009 1,041 0,997 1,067 1,015 1,004 1,019 1,009 1,018 1,030

2007 1,011 1,053 1,004 1,082 1,020 1,002 1,028 1,016 1,023 1,037

2008 1,013 1,067 1,011 1,096 1,024 1,000 1,037 1,022 1,028 1,044

2009 1,016 1,080 1,018 1,110 1,029 0,999 1,046 1,029 1,033 1,052

2010 1,018 1,094 1,024 1,123 1,033 0,997 1,055 1,035 1,038 1,059

2011 1,020 1,108 1,031 1,136 1,038 0,995 1,064 1,041 1,042 1,066

2012 1,023 1,123 1,038 1,149 1,042 0,993 1,074 1,047 1,047 1,073

National SOFI’s (base 2002 = 1)

www.FuturoVenezuela.orgSociedad Mundial del FuturoVENEZUELA

Comparative Year 1983

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Argen

tina

Brazil

Canad

aChil

e

Colombia USA

Mexico

Venez

uela

Ecua

dor

Peru

Comparative Year 1992

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Comparative Year 2002

020406080

100120140

Argen

tina

Brazil

Canad

aChil

e

Colombia USA

Mexico

Venez

uela

Ecua

dor

Peru

Comparative Year 2012

020406080

100120140160

Argen

tina

Brazil

Canad

aChil

e

Colombia USA

Mexico

Venez

uela

Ecua

dor

Peru

• Review methodology

• Define variables and weights

• Improve data collection

• Expande country set

• Cross regional comparisons

• Historical comparisons of forecasts

• Base case analysis and other scenarios

• Comparison with other indexes

Next Steps for National SOFI’s

www.FuturoVenezuela.orgSociedad Mundial del FuturoVENEZUELA

www.FuturoVenezuela.org

¡Muchas gracias!

www.FuturoVenezuela.orgSociedad Mundial del FuturoVENEZUELA