FUTURES STUDIESCausal Layered Analysis

Sohail InayatullahProfessor, Tamkang University, Sunshine

Coast University,www.metafuture.org

Six Pillars of Foresight

• Mapping the future

• Anticipating the future

• Timing the future

• Deepening the future

• Creating alternatives

• Transforming the future

DEEPENING THE FUTURECausal layered analysis

Problem The “Litany” official public description of issue

Causes

Social, Economic,

Cultural

Social Science Analysis: - Systemic Short-term historical facts uncovered. Solution values

with structures

Discourse Analysis: World-

view solution often in

consciousness transformation Worldviews

Metaphors and Myths Myth/Metaphor Analysis: Solution can rarely be rationally designed

• Litany:- visible- disconnected news events

• Systemic:- social, technological, economic,

environmental and political causes

• Discourses: - stakeholders - ideologies - worldviews

• Myths-metaphors:- stories- legends- myths of trauma and transcendence

Causal Layered Analysis

Litany

Social causes

Worldview

Myth

Newspaper headlines, superficial, common public perceptions

STEEP analysis

Cultural/social/religious perspective or worldview

Emotional, images or deep meanings

Pu

blic

U

ncon

scio

us

Su

perfi

cia

l Deep

M

ean

ing

Causal Layered AnalysisCausal Layered AnalysisLevel Issue / Problem Solution Who is

responsible to fix it

Source

Litany (Visible)

Problem seems too difficult to solve

Short term approaches

Governments / I cant do anything about it

Television/ Newspapers

Systemic

(Causes)

Problem because of short term historical factors or it is a process or system issue

Integrated approaches – systemic solutions

Partnerships between sectors of society – Government plus industries

Policy Journals, editorials

Worldview Constituted by frame of analysis, deep structures of belief & assumption

Transform, rethink self and others, change paradigm

Writers, philosophers, those outside the dominant language

Peripheral journals,

Myth /

Metaphor

Constituted core myths / stories

Alternative stories Collective unconscious often guided by visions

Work of artists, visionaries,

“real”

“imagined”

TIMEShort term

Long term

REALITY

Litany

Social system & structure

Worldview

Myth & Metaphor

CLA

Uno

ffic

ial

Off

icia

l

man

agem

ent

Em

ploy

ees

LONG

TERM

Stakeholders Stakeholders

CLA - Stakeholders

Fem

inis

t

Gre

en

Left

cons

erva

tive

LONG

TERM

IdeologiesIdeologies

CLA - Ideologies

Wes

t

Isla

mic

Indi

geno

us

Con

fuci

an

LONG

TERM

WorldviewsWorldviews

CLA - Worldviews

CLA - Epistemes

Anc

ient

Pre

-mod

ern

Mod

ern

Pos

t-m

oder

n

LONG

TERM

Conventional

Epistemes

Conventional

Epistemes

METAPHORS OF THE FUTURE

CLA AND SCENARIOS MATRIX

Litany

Social causes

Worldview

Myth

Spaceship Earth(Technology)

Collapse

(Worst case) Modernist

(Business as usual)

Gaia

(Ecological)

Scenario 2

Scenario 3

Scenario 1

Scenario 4