Advancements in Anticipatory ThinkingSarah Margaret Tulloss, Tracy Standafer, John Slankas (NCSU),

Jamie Roseborough (NSCU)Laboratory for Analytic Sciences

AT Definition

The LAS approach defines Anticipatory Thinking (AT) as deliberately divergent exploration and analysis of relevant futures to help avoid

surprise by identifying leading indicators and causal dependencies of future scenarios. More concisely, the ability to reason about the future

and do something about it.

The LAS team hypothesizes that reasoning about the future are cognitive skills humans possess and therefore can be developed and improved, and designed the AT approach with those goals—enable analysts to develop

and improve AT skills.

The LAS AT team has define a trans-disciplinary research approach with researchers and partners from varied fields of study.

The AT approach divides AT into two areas, domain expertise and methodologies and the 2018 research focused on methodologies.

AT research agenda consisting of three components:

• First, developing robust AT assessment measures. These measures aim to both

assess individual traits as well as a method’s output quality.

• Second, AT training environments will ensure necessary AT skills are developed, maintained, and supported by the assessment measures.

• Finally, AT analysis platforms built on the AT assessment measures aim to support operational and strategic AT.

Visualizing the Approach

Collaboration Outcomes

LAS AT Approach

Teaming with experts in academia, industry, and government! • Evaluation of AT cognitive model

• Initial training module• Analytic workshop testing industry platform• Evaluate clinical decision process as proxy for

intelligence analysis AT• Evaluation of divergent thinking interventions

affect on AT for support platforms• Exploration of imagination prompts for

developing future scenarios• Testing and further development on industry

support platform• Board game prototype in partnership with

RISSC exemplar to explore decision making processes