Future of the Colombian Defense Industry Market · Future of the Colombian Defense Industry – Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2019 5 1.2. Analysis

Report Price: US$ 1250 (Single User)

Future of the Colombian Defense Industry – Market

Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and

Forecasts to 2019

Future of the Colombian Defense Industry – Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2019

2

Summary

“Future of the Colombian Defense Industry – Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts

to 2019” report offers the reader detailed analysis of the defense budget over the next five years. Alongside

it offers insights into the market opportunities and entry strategies adopted by foreign OEMs (original

equipment manufacturers) to gain a market share in the Colombian defense industry.

The report provides detailed analysis of the current industry size and growth expectations during 2015-2019,

including highlights of the key growth stimulators. It also benchmarks the industry against key global markets

and provides detailed understanding of emerging opportunities in specific areas.

Key Findings

Colombia assigned a budget of US$XX billion in 2014 for its defense sector, reflecting a CAGR of XX% from

US$XX billion in 2010. The growth can be attributed to the internal threats from rebel groups and strained

relationship with Venezuela along with the development of domestic industry. As per the white paper by

Colombian Ministry of Defense (MoD), the country is expected to undertake a number of modernization and

procurement programs in coming 10 years, giving an impetus to the overall defense expenditure. In addition,

the increasing need for combating the narcotic trade is expected to drive the defense spending. This is

expected to push the defense budget to reach US$XX billion by 2019 from US$XX billion in 2015, registering

a CAGR of XX%.

Key Features and Benefits

The report provides detailed analysis of the Colombian defense industry during 2010–2019, including the

factors that influence the military expenditure. It provides detailed expectations of growth rates and projected

total expenditure.

It provides the manufacturers with insights on market opportunities along with industry structure and

dynamics prevalent in the country. In addition, the report focuses on the regulations governing the

Colombian defense industry and the potential market entry strategies with an expert analysis of the

competitive structure.


3

1. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities

1.1. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast

1.1.1. The Colombian defense budget is expected to grow at an estimated CAGR of XX% during the

forecast period, to reach US$XX billion in 2019

Colombian defense expenditure increased from XXX billion in 2010 to XXX billion in 2014, at a CAGR of

XXX%. Threats from Venezuela over political issues, and internal insurgencies from rebel groups such as

FARC have been driving growth in the country’s military expenditure during the review period. In addition, the

country’s ongoing military modernization program is also expected to propel Colombian defense expenditure

over the forecast period to reach XXX billion in 2019 growing at a CAGR of XXX%. Cumulatively, Colombia

will allocate an estimated XXX billion on defense over the forecast period, compared to XXX billion during the

review period.

The following table and figure show the Colombian defense expenditure during the review period:

Table 1: Colombian Defense Expenditure, 2010-2014

Year Defense expenditure (US$ bn)

Defense growth percentage

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

CAGR 2010-2014

Source: Ministry of Defense and SDI analysis © SDI

Figure 1: Colombian Defense Expenditure, 2010-2014


-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

23.5

24.0

24.5

25.0

25.5

26.0

26.5

27.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Def

ense

exp

end

itu

re g

row

th r

ate

(%)

Def

ense

bu

dg

et (

US

$ B

illi

on

)

Defense Expenditure (US$ bn) Defense Growth Percentage


4

The following table and figure show projected defense expenditure of the Colombian over the forecast period:

Table 2: Colombian Defense Expenditure, 2015-2019

Year Defense expenditure (US$ bn)

Defense growth percentage

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

CAGR 2015-2019


Figure 2: Colombian Defense Expenditure, 2015-2019


0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Defe

nse e

xp

en

dit

ure

gro

wth

rate

(%

)

Defe

nse b

ud

get

(US

$ B

illi

on

)

Defence Expenditure (US$ bn) Defense expenditure growth %


5

1.2. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation

1.2.1. Capital expenditure allocation in the overall defense budget set to increase over the forecast period

The Colombian MoD allocated an average of XX% of the total defense budget towards capital expenditure

during the review period, which is expected to increase over the forecast period to be XX%. This is

predominantly due to Colombia’s planned armed force modernization program and procurement plans along

with the increasing nuclear threat from North Korea as outlined in the recently published defense white paper.

The country’s revenue expenditure, which can be attributed to the additional recruitment, training, and

development programs for military personnel, is expected to decline from an average of XX% between 2010

and 2014 to XX% during the forecast period.

The following table and chart display Colombia’s defense budget share of capital, revenue and other

expenditure during the review period:

Table 3: Colombian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2010–2014

Year Capital Expenditure Share Revenue Expenditure Share

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Source: Ministry of Finance, Colombia and SDI analysis © SDI

Figure 3: Colombian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2010-2014


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Defe

nse B

ud

get

Sh

are

(%

)

Capital Expenditure Revenue Expenditure


6

The following table and chart display Colombia’s defense budget share of capital, revenue and other

expenditure over the forecast period:

Table 4: Colombian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2015–2019

Year Capital Expenditure Share Revenue Expenditure Share

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Source: Ministry of Finance, Colombia and SDI analysis © SDI

Figure 4: Colombian Defense Budget Split Between Capital, Revenue and Other Expenditure

(%),2015-2019


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Defe

nse B

ud

get

Sh

are

(%

)

Capital Expenditure Revenue Expenditure


7

2. Industry Dynamics - Porter’s Five Forces Analysis

Figure 4: Industry Dynamics – Porter’s Five Forces Analysis

Source: SDI analysis © SDI

Intensity of Rivalry Bargaining Power of Supplier

Bargaining Power of Buyer

Barrier to Entry

Threat of Substitute


8

Report Methodology

SDI’s dedicated research and analysis teams consist of experienced professionals with a background in

industry research and consulting in the defense sector. The following research methodology is followed for all

databases and reports:

Secondary Research

The research process begins with exhaustive secondary research to source reliable qualitative and

quantitative information related to the defense market. The secondary research sources that are typically

referred to include, but are not limited to:

Industry associations

National government documents and statistical databases

Company websites, annual reports, financial reports, broker reports, investor presentations

Industry trade journals and other literature

Internal and external proprietary databases

News articles, press releases, and webcasts specific to the companies operating in the market

Primary Research

SDI conducts hundreds of primary interviews a year with industry participants and commentators in order to

validate its data and analysis. A typical research interview fulfills the following functions:

Provides first-hand information on market size, market trends, growth trends, competitive landscape,

and future outlook

Helps to validate and strengthen secondary research findings

Further develops the analysis team’s expertise and market understanding

Primary research involves e-mail interactions, telephone interviews, and face-to-face interviews for

each market category, division, and sub-division across geographies

The participants who typically take part in such a process include, but are not limited to:

Industry participants: CEOs, VPs, business development managers, market intelligence managers,

and national sales managers

External experts: investment bankers, valuation experts, research analysts, and key opinion leaders

specializing in defense markets

Conventions

Currency conversions are performed on the basis of average annual conversion rate format

calculations

All the values in tables, with the exception of compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) and

compounded annual rate of change (CARC), are displayed to one decimal place; therefore, due to

this rounding method, growth rates may appear inconsistent with absolute values

The forecasted values are projected on the basis of nominal values; the inflation was not taken into account


9

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 9

1.1. What is this Report About? ........................................................................................................... 9

1.2. Definitions ...................................................................................................................................... 9

1.3. Summary Methodology .................................................................................................................11

1.4. SDI Terrorism Index ......................................................................................................................12

1.5. About Strategic Defense Intelligence ..........................................................................................12

2. Executive Summary ............................................................................................................ 13

3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities ........................................................ 15

3.1. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast..............................................................................16

3.1.1. Colombian defense expenditure expected to reach US$10.2 billion by 2019 .......................................... 16

3.1.2. Internal threats from rebel groups, strained relationship with Venezuela and development of domestic

industry set to increase defense expenditure ....................................................................................................... 20

3.1.3. Defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP expected to be 1.8% by 2019 ......................................... 21

3.2. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation .......................................................................................25

3.2.1. Majority of defense budget allocated for revenue expenditure................................................................. 25

3.2.2. Army accounts for majority of defense budget ......................................................................................... 27

3.2.3. Budget allocation for army higher than remaining military divisions ........................................................ 29

3.2.4. The country’s expenditure on its Navy to reach US$1.3 billion by 2019 .................................................. 33

3.2.5. Expenditure on Air Force estimated to increase at a CAGR of 6.61% over the forecast period .............. 37

3.2.6. Other expenses constitute a substantial amount of the total defense budget .......................................... 41

3.3. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast ............................................................................45

3.3.1. Homeland security market to grow considerably during 2015-2019 ........................................................ 45

3.3.2. High crime levels and drug trafficking expected to increase homeland security expenditure .................. 49

3.3.3. SDI Terrorism Index rates Colombia to be a “highly affected” region ...................................................... 50

3.3.4. Colombia scores 1.9 on the terrorism index ............................................................................................. 51

3.4. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets .....................................................................................52

3.4.1. Colombian defense expenditure forecast to grow faster than the majority of the largest global defense

budgets ................................................................................................................................................................. 52

3.4.2. Colombian defense expenditure is one of the highest in South America ................................................. 54

3.4.3. Colombia spends 1.8% of its GDP on defense ........................................................................................ 55

3.4.4. Colombia is “highly affected” by acts of terrorism .................................................................................... 56

3.5. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Drivers ..........................................................................59

3.5.1. Fighters & Multi-Role Aircraft .................................................................................................................... 59

3.5.2. Police Modernization ................................................................................................................................ 60


10

3.5.3. Transport &Utility Aircraft .......................................................................................................................... 61

3.5.4. Main Battle Tank ....................................................................................................................................... 62

3.5.5. Infantry Fighting Vehicles ......................................................................................................................... 63

3.5.6. Armored Personnel Carriers ..................................................................................................................... 64

4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics ........................................................................... 65

4.1. Import Market Dynamics ...............................................................................................................66

4.1.1. Limitations of the domestic defense industry will support arms imports .................................................. 66

4.1.2. Defense imports have grown significantly over the last five years ........................................................... 66

4.1.3. Aircraft account for majority of defense imports ....................................................................................... 67

4.1.4. US and Israel continue to be major arms suppliers .................................................................................. 68

4.2. Export Market Dynamics ..............................................................................................................69

4.2.1. Colombia is not a major defense exporting country ................................................................................. 69

5. Industry Dynamics .............................................................................................................. 70

5.1. Five Forces Analysis.....................................................................................................................70

5.1.1. Bargaining power of the supplier: low to medium ..................................................................................... 71

5.1.2. Bargaining power of the Buyer: high to medium ...................................................................................... 71

5.1.3. Barrier to entry: medium to high ............................................................................................................... 71

5.1.4. Intensity of rivalry: low .............................................................................................................................. 71

5.1.5. Threat of Substitution: medium ................................................................................................................. 71

6. Market Entry Strategy ......................................................................................................... 72

6.1. Market Regulation .........................................................................................................................72

6.1.1. Offset guidelines are channeled to benefit industrial and social sectors .................................................. 72

6.1.2. FDI in defense sector is closed ................................................................................................................ 73

6.2. Market Entry Route .......................................................................................................................74

6.2.1. Direct selling is the preferred market entry route for foreign OEMs ......................................................... 74

6.3. Key Challenges .............................................................................................................................75

6.3.1. Corruption, bribery, and influence of anti-state elements damages the credibility of the military ............ 75

6.3.2. Low capital expenditure discourages both foreign and domestic firms .................................................... 75

7. Competitive landscape and Strategic Insights ................................................................. 76

7.1. Competitive landscape Overview .................................................................................................76

7.2. Key Public Sector Companies ......................................................................................................77

7.2.1. Industria Militar: Overview ........................................................................................................................ 77

7.2.2. Industria Militar: Major Products and Services ......................................................................................... 77

7.2.3. Industria Militar: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives .......................................................... 78

7.2.4. Industria Militar: Alliances ......................................................................................................................... 79

7.2.5. Industria Militar: Recent Contract Wins .................................................................................................... 79

7.3. Key Private Sector Companies ....................................................................................................80


11

7.3.1. Sudamin Aeronautica y Defensa S.A.: Overview ..................................................................................... 80

7.3.2. Sudamin Aeronautica y Defensa S.A.: Major Products and Services ...................................................... 80

7.3.3. Sudamin Aeronautica y Defensa S.A.: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives ....................... 82

7.3.4. Sudamin Aeronautica y Defensa S.A.: Alliances ...................................................................................... 82

7.3.5. Cotecmar: Overview ................................................................................................................................. 83

7.3.6. Cotecmar: Major Products and Services .................................................................................................. 83

7.3.7. Cotecmar: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives ................................................................... 84

7.3.8. Cotecmar: Alliances .................................................................................................................................. 85

7.3.9. Cotecmar: Recent Contract Wins ............................................................................................................. 85

8. Business Environment and Country Risk ......................................................................... 86

8.1.1. Total Rural Population .............................................................................................................................. 86

8.1.2. Total Urban Population ............................................................................................................................. 87

8.1.3. Number of Households ............................................................................................................................. 88

8.2. Economic Performance ................................................................................................................89

8.2.1. GDP Per Capita (In US$).......................................................................................................................... 89

8.2.2. GDP, Current Prices (US$ Billion) ............................................................................................................ 90

8.2.3. Exports of Goods and Services, Current Prices (US$ billion) .................................................................. 91

8.2.4. Imports of goods and services, current prices (US$ billion) ..................................................................... 92

8.2.5. Gross National Disposable Income .......................................................................................................... 93

8.2.6. Manufacturing Output (US$ Billion) .......................................................................................................... 94

8.2.7. Consumer Price Index .............................................................................................................................. 95

8.2.8. Wholesale Price Index .............................................................................................................................. 96

8.2.9. Local Currency Unit Per US$ (period average) ........................................................................................ 97

8.2.10. Local Currency Unit Per EUR (period average) ....................................................................................... 98

8.2.11. Lending Rate (%) ...................................................................................................................................... 99

8.2.12. Deposit Rate (%) .................................................................................................................................... 100

8.2.13. Real Interest Rate (%) ............................................................................................................................ 101

8.2.14. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Billion) ....................................................................... 102

8.2.15. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (% of GDP) ......................................................................... 103

8.2.16. Total Government Cash Surplus/ Deficit (LCU Billion) ........................................................................... 104

8.2.17. Government Cash Surplus/ Deficit as % of GDP (LCU) ......................................................................... 105

8.2.18. Goods Exports as a % of GDP ............................................................................................................... 106

8.2.19. Goods Imports as % of GDP .................................................................................................................. 107

8.2.20. Goods Balance as a % of GDP .............................................................................................................. 108

8.2.21. Services Imports as a % of GDP ............................................................................................................ 109

8.2.22. Services Exports as a % of GDP ............................................................................................................ 110

8.2.23. Services Balance as % of GDP .............................................................................................................. 111

8.2.24. Foreign Direct Investment, net (BoP, current US$ Billion) ..................................................................... 112


12

8.2.25. Net Foreign Direct Investment as % of GDP .......................................................................................... 113

8.2.26. International Reserves, Including Gold (US$ Billion) ............................................................................. 114

8.2.27. External Debt as % of GDP .................................................................................................................... 115

8.3. Energy and Utilities ..................................................................................................................... 116

8.3.1. Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt Hours) .................................... 116

8.3.2. Hydroelectricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt Hours) ........................................................................ 117

8.3.3. Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity (Million Kilowatts) ........................................ 118

8.3.4. Total Electricity Exports (Billion Kilowatt Hours) ..................................................................................... 119

8.3.5. Proved Reserves of Natural Gas (Trillion Cubic Feet) ........................................................................... 120

8.3.6. Total Petroleum Consumption ................................................................................................................ 121

8.3.7. Crude Oil Proved Reserves .................................................................................................................... 122

8.3.8. Total Non-Hydro Renewable Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatts) ............................................ 123

8.4. Infrastructure Quality and Availability ....................................................................................... 124

8.4.1. Roads, total network ............................................................................................................................... 124

8.4.2. Air Transport (freight) .............................................................................................................................. 125

8.4.3. Overall Construction ............................................................................................................................... 126

8.5. Minerals ....................................................................................................................................... 127

8.5.1. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output ................................................................................................... 127

8.6. Technology .................................................................................................................................. 128

8.6.1. Research and Development Expenditure ............................................................................................... 128

8.6.2. Patents Granted ...................................................................................................................................... 129

8.7. Telecommunication .................................................................................................................... 130

8.7.1. Telephone Lines ..................................................................................................................................... 130

8.7.2. Telephone Lines Penetration Rate ......................................................................................................... 131

9. Appendix ............................................................................................................................ 132

9.1. About SDI ..................................................................................................................................... 132

9.2. Disclaimer .................................................................................................................................... 132


13

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1: Colombian Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2010–2014 ................................................................................................................. 16 Figure 2: Colombian Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2015–2019 ................................................................................................................. 17 Figure 3: Colombian Defense Expenditure (COP Billion), 2010–2014 ................................................................................................................. 18 Figure 4: Colombian Defense Expenditure(COP Billion),2015–2019 ................................................................................................................... 19 Figure 5: Colombian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth, and Defense Expenditures Percentage of GDP Growth, 2010–2014 ....... 21 Figure 6: Colombian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2015–2019 ..... 22 Figure 7: Colombian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth, and Defense Expenditures Percentage of GDP Growth, 2010–2014 ....... 23 Figure 8: Colombian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2015–2019 ..... 24 Figure 9: Colombian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2010–2014 ........................................................... 25 Figure 10: Colombian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2015–2019 ......................................................... 26 Figure 11: Colombian Defense Expenditure Breakdown (%), 2010–2014 ........................................................................................................... 27 Figure 12: Colombian Defense Expenditure Breakdown (%), 2015–2019 ........................................................................................................... 28 Figure 13: Colombian Defense Expenditure for the Army(US$ billion), 2010–2014 ............................................................................................. 29 Figure 14: Colombian Defense Expenditure for the Army (US$ billion), 2015–2019 ............................................................................................ 30 Figure 15: Colombian Defense Expenditure for the Army (COP billion), 2010–2014 ........................................................................................... 31 Figure 16: Colombian Defense Expenditure for the Army (COP billion), 2015–2019 ........................................................................................... 32 Figure 17: Colombian Defense Expenditure for the Navy (US$ billion), 2010–2014 ............................................................................................ 33 Figure 18: Colombian Defense Expenditure for the Navy (US$ billion), 2015–2019 ............................................................................................ 34 Figure 19: Colombian Defense Expenditure for the Navy (COP billion), 2010–2014 ........................................................................................... 35 Figure 20: Colombian Defense Expenditure for the Navy (COP billion), 2015–2019 ........................................................................................... 36 Figure 21: Colombian Defense Expenditure for the Air Force (US$ billion), 2010–2014 ...................................................................................... 37 Figure 22: Colombian Defense Expenditure for the Air Force (US$ billion),2015–2019 ....................................................................................... 38 Figure 23: Colombian Defense Expenditure for the Air Force (COP billion), 2010–2014 ..................................................................................... 39 Figure 24: Colombian Defense Expenditure for the Air Force (COP billion),2015–2019 ...................................................................................... 40 Figure 25: Colombian Defense Expenditure for Other Expenses (US$ billion),2010–2014 .................................................................................. 41 Figure 26: Colombian Defense Expenditure for the Other Expenses (US$ billion),2015–2019 ............................................................................ 42 Figure 27: Colombian Defense Expenditure for Others (COP billion), 2010–2014 .............................................................................................. 43 Figure 28: Colombian Defense Expenditure for Others (COP billion), 2015–2019 .............................................................................................. 44 Figure 29: Colombian Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2010–2014 ............................................................................................... 45 Figure 30: Colombian Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2015–2019 ............................................................................................... 46 Figure 31: Colombian Homeland Security Expenditure (COP Billion), 2010–2014 .............................................................................................. 47 Figure 32: Colombian Homeland Security Expenditure (COP Billion), 2015–2019 .............................................................................................. 48 Figure 33: SDI Terrorism Heat Map, 2014 .......................................................................................................................................................... 50 Figure 34: SDI Terrorism Index, 2014 ................................................................................................................................................................. 51 Figure 35: Benchmarking with Key Markets – 2010–2014 vs. 2015–2019 .......................................................................................................... 53 Figure 36: Defense Expenditure of the World’s Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion), 2014 and 2019 ............................................................ 54 Figure 37: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2014 ..................................................................... 55 Figure 38: Colombia’s Fighters & Multi-Role Aircraft Market Size (US$ Million), 2014–2024 ............................................................................... 59 Figure 39: Colombia’s Police Modernization Market Size (US$ Million), 2014–2024 ........................................................................................... 60 Figure 40: Colombia’s Transport & Utility Aircraft Market Size (US$ Billion), 2014–2024 .................................................................................... 61 Figure 41: Colombia’s Main Battle Tank Market Size (US$ Billion), 2014–2024 .................................................................................................. 62 Figure 42: Colombia’s Infantry Fighting Vehicle Market Size (US$ Million), 2014–2024 ...................................................................................... 63 Figure 43: Colombia’s Armored Personnel Carriers Market Size (US$ Million), 2014–2024 ................................................................................ 64 Figure 44: Colombian Defense Import TIV value (US$ Million), 2009–2013 ........................................................................................................ 66 Figure 45: Colombian Defense Imports by Category (%),2009–2013 .................................................................................................................. 67 Figure 46: Colombian Defense Imports by Country (%), 2009–2013 ................................................................................................................... 68 Figure 47: Industry Dynamics – Porter’s Five Forces Analysis ............................................................................................................................ 70 Figure 48: Total Rural Population (In Millions), 2014–2023 ................................................................................................................................. 86 Figure 49: Colombian Urban Population (In Millions), 2014–2023 ....................................................................................................................... 87 Figure 50: Number of Households (In Millions), 2002–2011 ................................................................................................................................ 88 Figure 51: Colombian GDP Per Capita, 2014–2023 ............................................................................................................................................ 89 Figure 52: Colombian GDP at Current Prices (US$ Billion), 2010–2019 ............................................................................................................. 90 Figure 53: Colombian Exports of Goods and Services, Current Prices (US$ Billion), 2003–2012 ....................................................................... 91 Figure 54: Colombian Imports of Goods and Services, Current Prices (US$ billion), 2003–2012 ........................................................................ 92 Figure 55: Colombian Gross National Disposable Income (USD Billion), 2002–2011 .......................................................................................... 93


14

Figure 56: Colombian Manufacturing Output (US$ Billion), 2002–2011 .............................................................................................................. 94 Figure 57: Colombian Consumer Price Index, 2008–2017 .................................................................................................................................. 95 Figure 58: Colombian Wholesale Price Index, 2002–2011 .................................................................................................................................. 96 Figure 59: Colombian Local Currency Unit Per US$ (period average), 2009–2018 ............................................................................................. 97 Figure 60: Colombian Local Currency Unit Per EUR (period average), 2008–2017 ............................................................................................ 98 Figure 61: Colombian Lending Rate (%), 2002–2011 ......................................................................................................................................... 99 Figure 62: Colombian Deposit Rate (%), 2002–2011 .........................................................................................................................................100 Figure 63: Colombian Real Interest Rate (%), 2002–2011 .................................................................................................................................101 Figure 64: Market Capitalization of Listed Companies in Colombia (US$ Billion), 2003–2012 ............................................................................102 Figure 65: Market Capitalization of Listed Companies in Colombia (% of GDP), 2002–2011 .............................................................................103 Figure 66: Total Government Cash Surplus/ Deficit (LCU Billion), 2002–2011 ...................................................................................................104 Figure 67: Government Cash Surplus/ Deficit as % of GDP (LCU), 2001–2010 .................................................................................................105 Figure 68: Colombian Goods Exports as % of GDP, 2002–2011 .......................................................................................................................106 Figure 69: Colombian Goods Imports as % of GDP, 2002–2011 .......................................................................................................................107 Figure 70: Colombian Goods Balance a % of GDP, 2002–2011 ........................................................................................................................108 Figure 71: Colombian Services Imports as % of GDP, 2002–2011 ....................................................................................................................109 Figure 72: Colombian Services Exports as a % of GDP, 2002–2011 .................................................................................................................110 Figure 73: Colombian Services Balance as % of GDP, 2002–2011 ...................................................................................................................111 Figure 74: Colombian Foreign Direct Investment, net (BoP, current US$ Billion) , 2002–2011 ...........................................................................112 Figure 75: Colombian Net Foreign Direct Investment as % of GDP, 2002–2011 ................................................................................................113 Figure 76: Colombian International Reserves, including Gold (US$ Billion), 2002–2011 ....................................................................................114 Figure 77: Colombian External Debt as % of GDP, 2001–2010 .........................................................................................................................115 Figure 78: Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt Hours), 2002–2011 .............................................................116 Figure 79: Colombian Hydroelectricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt Hours), 2002–2011 ...............................................................................117 Figure 80: Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity (Million Kilowatts), ....................................................................................118 Figure 81: Colombian Total Electricity Exports (Billion Kilowatt Hours), 2001–2010 ...........................................................................................119 Figure 82: Colombia’s Proved Reserves of Natural Gas (Trillion Cubic Feet), 2004–2013 .................................................................................120 Figure 83: Colombian Total Petroleum Consumption (Thousand Barrels Per Day), 2003–2012 .........................................................................121 Figure 84: Colombian Crude Oil Proved Reserves (Million Barrels), 2004–2013 ................................................................................................122 Figure 85: Colombian Non-Hydro Renewable Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatts), 2001–2010 ............................................................123 Figure 86: Roads, Total Network (Km), 2000–2009 ...........................................................................................................................................124 Figure 87: Air Transport (Freight), Million ton-km, 2002–2011 ...........................................................................................................................125 Figure 88: Overall Construction (US$ Billion), 2007–2016 .................................................................................................................................126 Figure 89: Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (USD Billion), 2002-2011 ......................................................................................................127 Figure 90: Colombian Research and Development Expenditure (Local Currency Thousands), 2001-2010 ........................................................128 Figure 91: Patents Granted, 2003–2012 ............................................................................................................................................................129 Figure 92:Telephone Lines in Colombia (in Millions), 2002–2011 ......................................................................................................................130 Figure 93: Telephone Lines Penetration Rate in Colombia (per 100 people), 2002–2011 ..................................................................................131


15

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: Colombian Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2010–2014 ................................................................................................................... 16 Table 2: Colombian Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2015–2019 ................................................................................................................... 17 Table 3: Colombian Defense Expenditure (COP Billion), 2010–2014 .................................................................................................................. 18 Table 4: Colombian Defense Expenditure (COP Billion), 2015–2019 .................................................................................................................. 19 Table 5: Colombian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth, and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2010–2014....... 21 Table 6: Colombian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2015–2019 ...... 22 Table 7: Colombian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth, and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2010–2014....... 23 Table 8: Colombian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2015–2019 ...... 24 Table 9: Colombian Defense Budget split between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2010–2014 ............................................................. 25 Table 10: Colombian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2015–2019 .......................................................... 26 Table 11: Colombian Defense Expenditure Breakdown (%), 2010–2014 ............................................................................................................ 27 Table 12: Colombian Defense Expenditure Breakdown (%), 2015–2019 ............................................................................................................ 28 Table 13: Colombian Defense Expenditure for the Army(US$ billion), 2010–2014 .............................................................................................. 29 Table 14: Colombian Defense Expenditure for the Army (US$ billion), 2015–2019 ............................................................................................. 30 Table 15: Colombian Defense Expenditure for the Army (COP billion), 2010–2014 ............................................................................................ 31 Table 16: Colombian Defense Expenditure for the Army (COP billion), 2015–2019 ............................................................................................ 32 Table 17: Colombian Defense Expenditure for the Navy (US$ billion), 2010–2014 ............................................................................................. 33 Table 18: Colombian Defense Expenditure for the Navy (US$ billion), 2015–2019 ............................................................................................. 34 Table 19: Colombian Defense Expenditure for the Navy (COP billion), 2010–2014 ............................................................................................ 35 Table 20: Colombian Defense Expenditure for the Navy (COP billion), 2015–2019 ............................................................................................ 36 Table 21: Colombian Defense Expenditure for the Air Force (US$ billion), 2010–2014 ....................................................................................... 37 Table 22: Colombian Defense Expenditure for the Air Force (US$ billion), 2015–2019 ....................................................................................... 38 Table 23: Colombian Defense Expenditure for the Air Force (COP billion), 2010–2014 ...................................................................................... 39 Table 24: Colombian Defense Expenditure for the Air Force (COP billion), 2015–2019 ...................................................................................... 40 Table 25: Colombian Defense Expenditure for Other Expenses (US$ billion), 2010–2014 .................................................................................. 41 Table 26: Colombian Defense Expenditure for Other Expenses (US$ billion), 2015–2019 .................................................................................. 42 Table 27: Colombian Defense Expenditure for Others (COP billion), 2010–2014 ................................................................................................ 43 Table 28: Colombian Defense Expenditure for the Others (COP billion), 2015–2019 .......................................................................................... 44 Table 29: Colombian Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2010–2014 ................................................................................................ 45 Table 30: Colombian Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2015–2019 ................................................................................................ 46 Table 31: Colombian Homeland Security Expenditure (COP Billion), 2010–2014 ............................................................................................... 47 Table 32: Colombian Homeland Security Expenditure (COP Billion), 2015–2019 ............................................................................................... 48 Table 33: Benchmarking with Key Markets – 2010–2014 vs. 2015–2019............................................................................................................ 52 Table 34: SDI Terrorism Index ............................................................................................................................................................................ 56 Table 35: Offset Regulations in Colombia ........................................................................................................................................................... 73 Table 36: Industria Militar – Major Products & Services ...................................................................................................................................... 77 Table 37: Industria Militar – Alliances ................................................................................................................................................................. 79 Table 38: Industria Militar – Recent Contract Wins ............................................................................................................................................. 79 Table 39: Sudamin Aeronautica y Defensa S.A. – Major Products & Services .................................................................................................... 80 Table 40: Sudamin Aeronautica y Defensa S.A. – Alliances ............................................................................................................................... 82 Table 41: Cotecmar – Major Products & Services ............................................................................................................................................... 83 Table 42: Cotecmar – Alliances .......................................................................................................................................................................... 85 Table 43: Cotecmar – Recent Contract Wins ...................................................................................................................................................... 85

Documents

Future of the Colombian Defense Industry Market · Future of the Colombian Defense Industry – Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2019 5 1.2. Analysis