Chan Park, Dong Kun Lee, Jin Han Park,

M i Jin Lee, Tae Yong Jung, Yongw on M o, Junghyun W oo

14 Nov. , 2015

Future G HG and A ir-pollutant emission range

consistent w ith the SSP in East A sia region

21th A IM International W orkshop, NIES

Hot-spot area of climate change

South Korea' s climate change law s

- Framew ork A ct on Low Carbon G reen G row th / 2010

- A ct on the allocation and trade of greenhouse gas emissions rights / 2012

- A ct on the Creation and Facilitation of Use of Smart G rids / 2011

Category Area Current(1986- 2005)M id term

(2046- 2065)Long term

(2081- 2100)

Average

temperature (℃)

Korea peninsula 11.3 +2.3 (+3.3) +3.0 (+5.9)

East Asia - +1.9 - +2.4 -

Global - +1.4 (+2.0) +1.8 (+3.7)

PrecipitationKorea peninsula 1144.5 +13% +21% +20% (+18%)

East Asia +7%Source: CM IP5 results based on RCP4.5

( ) means RCP8.5 result

"No Regrets" A pproach to Decision-M aking against climate change

- Characterizing Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change and impact

- Integrated assessment modelling coupled w ith Regional characteristic

To develop an integrated evaluation system for climate policy by interconnecting emission

inventory, integrated assessment models (emission and impact), and climate models

M odelling (LLG HG , SLCP)Socio-economic scenario Cost

Hanaoka Hu et al. , 2013 manicbeancounter

Regional emission scenario

(based on SSP, RCP)

Regional Climate scenario

Regional A ir-Quality scenario

Climate/air-quality Policy A ssumptions

M itigation cost A daptation cost M itigation + A daptation cost

Supported Decision-M aking

OFF/ON LineCoupling

Climate Model

Air Quality Model

Air QualityModel

Climate Model

Global Scale Regional Scale

Regional ScaleGlobal Scale

OFF/ON LineCoupling

Downscaling

Downscaling

NIER/SNU-ICAMS

OFF/ON LineCoupling

WRF

CMAQ

CCSM

GEOS-Chem

Theme 1 (Today topic)

Socio-economic Param.CC-AQ Policy & Tech.

MESSAGE –ChinaAIM –KoreaAIM -Japan

Future energy use/Fuel use/non-energy activit ies KU-EPS

CREATE/CAPSS(Asian baseyear EI)

ECLIPSE (Future Projection

Factor for Asia)

GAINS-Global(Non-Asian baseyear EI)

Mosaic EI(Global baseyear EI)

RCP 4.5(Future Projection

Factor for non-Asia)

Future Projection Factor

(China/Korea/Japan)

• End-of-pipecontrol measures

SMOKE-Asia

GEOS-Chem-Ready Future EIs(Global, 0.5 deggridded, Monthly,

speciated)

CMAQ- Ready Future EIs(Regional,

54km/18km gridded, Hourly,

speciated)

To Present emission scenarios of Long-lived G HG (LLG HG ) and Short lived

Climate Pollutant (SLCP) (East A sia region) for climate modeling

Time

2010 - 2100

- Base Year : 2010, Target Year : 2030, 2050, 2100

Sectors

Fuel combustion (Residential sector, Commercial sector, Transport sector, Industry sector (Steel, Cement, Other industries))

Industrial process, A griculture, W aste (Residential sector, Commercial sector, Industry sector), Fuel mining, Others

Data

Population, G DP : OECD, IIA SA , National Statistics

M itigation policy : National policy, Suggested policy from research

Technology : A IM Enduse[G LOBA L], G A INS-China

Discount rate: 5%

Energy price: W orld Energy Outlook

Emission factor: IPCC guideline

Climate scenario : RCP8.5, RCP4.5

Low emissionScenario

High emissionScenario

Includingmitigation policies

BA U emissionScenario

Population

G DP

Hanaoka

M odel: A IM Enduse G lobal

Hanaoka. , 2015

SG-China

Message-China

CREATE inventory

A i r Pol l utants

CO2 Emissions

SSP Scenar ios

Message model i nput

Energy demand by sector

Qiang Zhang (Tsinghua Univ)

SO2N O x

P M2 . 5 V O C

G lobal : ECLIPSE version 5

Regional : CREATE (NIER-KU)

Korea : CA PSS (NIER)

Emission inventory : G HG (CO2, CH4, N2O), A ir-pollutant (SO2, NOx, PM 10, CO, BC, TSP, VOC, NH3)

Sector’s Contribution to G HG : (2010) Building 21% , Transport16% , Industry 63%(2100) Building (13-18)% , Transport (26-28)% , Industry (56-59)%

Sector’s Contribution to A ir-pollutant :(2010) Building 6% , Transport 63% , Industry 31%(2100) Building (8-11)% , Transport (55-66)% , Industry (26-33)%

Emission inventory : G HG (CO2, CH4, N2O), A ir-pollutant (SO2, NOx, BC)

Sector’s Contribution to G HG : (2010) Building 20% , Transport 24% , Industry 56%(2100) Building (17-25)% , Transport (7-32)% , Industry (51-68)%

Sector’s Contribution to A ir-pollutant :(2010) Building 2% , Transport 82% , Industry 31%(2100) Building (1-2)% , Transport (74-93)% , Industry (6-23)%

High

BaU

LowCO2 G t

Emission inventory : G HG (CO2, CH4), A ir-pollutant (SO2, NOx, PM 2.5, CO, BC)

Qiang Zhang (Tsinghua Univ)

SO2NOx

V OC

CO

G g/yr

PM 2.5CH4

Low

High

BaU

Qiang Zhang (Tsinghua Univ)

NOx V O C

Emission Contribution of A sia in 2010 Emission Contribution of East A sia in 2010

55% 60% 41% 44% 43% 32% 63% 59% 70% 55% 77% 46%+ C O , C H 4 d i v i de d by 5* C O 2 u n i t: P g /y r

Emission G A P

Thank you

21

スライド番号 1CONTENTS�スライド番号 3スライド番号 4スライド番号 5スライド番号 6スライド番号 7スライド番号 8スライド番号 9スライド番号 10スライド番号 11スライド番号 12スライド番号 13スライド番号 14スライド番号 15スライド番号 16スライド番号 17スライド番号 18スライド番号 19スライド番号 20Thank you