FUTURE EVOLUTION OF SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC STATISTICS COLLECTED AND DISSEMINATED

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FUTURE EVOLUTION OF SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC STATISTICS

COLLECTED AND DISSEMINATED BY OECD AND NATIONAL AGENCIES


COLLECTED AND DISSEMINATED BY OECD AND NATIONAL AGENCIES

SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC STATISTICS WORKING PARTY (STESWP)26-28 JUNE 2006

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OECD paper sought to outline processes for the future evolution of STES:

• For collection and dissemination by OECD – mainly in MEI

• Obtain national perspectives via consultation



To identify possible future activities by STESWP in co-ordination

with Eurostat

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Future evolution of STES entails consideration of two sets of related issues:



Range of Indicators

collected and disseminated, e.g.

Other issues

Services Use of admin data

Prices Presentation of seasonally adjusted series, growth rates

Production Improvement in timeliness

International trade Revisions

Labour force New classifications / linking

Some of these:

•discussed by STESWP in past;

•were discussed this year

•could be covered in future

Some of these:

•discussed by STESWP in past;

•were discussed this year

•could be covered in future

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Work of the STESEG task forces (cont.)

Countries were asked to briefly outline:

Formal planning processes for determining priorities for STES - in regards to introduction of new indicators; refinement of existing indicators.

Information on-line catalogues outlining STES available to external users.

Any plans for the development of new output databases from where external users could access detailed STES and related metadata.

Any changes by EU countries in addition to those to meet requirements of EC Regulations – e.g. those designed primarily to meet needs of users in national government

NATIONAL CONSULTATIONNATIONAL CONSULTATION

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This presentation will now briefly cover:

Processes used in MEI

The results of consultation with national STESWP participants



Followed by STESWP discussion on drivers for future activities

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Work of STESEG task forces

Many issues at national and international levels the same, namely:

need for relevant statistics

timely statistics

produced within limitations of available resources within OECD / NSI

with minimal reporting burden on data providers.



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Creation of OECD Committee on Statistics

MEI provides:

Wide range of STES for 30 OECD Member countries + large non-member economies (NMEs)

These indicators published are also disseminated by national agencies in compendium or domain specific publications

MEI BACKGROUNDMEI BACKGROUND

Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia, South

Africa

Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia, South

Africa

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Creation of OECD Committee on Statistics (cont.)

Primary focus is the presentation of nationally published indicators

These are obtained directly from national sources or from other I/Os where available (ECB, IMF, EC, Eurostat)

Key issue is the availability of metadata – electronically available for all series – updated daily

MEI BACKGROUND – cont.MEI BACKGROUND – cont.

Preferred access method is via access to

online databases

Preferred access method is via access to

online databasesAim is real-time updates

with national releaseAim is real-time updates

with national release

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DRIVERS FOR MEI CONTENTDRIVERS FOR MEI CONTENT

Relevant – reflect evolution of key aspects of economic activity

Long time series - methodologically consistent

Comparable between countries – accept some tradeoff with previous driver

Timely statistics

Accessible – via a number of platforms

Methodologically transparent – metadata linked to data

Mostly same issues as for national agencies.

OECD is dependant on availability of series in Member countries + emerging large NMEs

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Work of STESEG task forcesFUTURE EVOLUTION OF MEIFUTURE EVOLUTION OF MEI

Current situation•Part 1 of MEI provides limited comparative data for key headline indicators

•Too limited and backward looking – still focused on “traditional sectors”

Current situation•Part 1 of MEI provides limited comparative data for key headline indicators

•Too limited and backward looking – still focused on “traditional sectors”

Future entails•Expansion in number of comparable series in Part 1 – not much scope here

•Identification of “common” indicators as proxies – help expand country coverage

Future entails•Expansion in number of comparable series in Part 1 – not much scope here

•Identification of “common” indicators as proxies – help expand country coverage

Target indicator list is a tool for consultation with:•users to identify real on-going needs

•data providers to determine availability



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Work of STESEG task forcesFUTURE EVOLUTION OF MEIFUTURE EVOLUTION OF MEI





Series not currently in MEI include•Imports / exports volume

•Total deposits / time and savings deposits•Unit labour costs: all activities

•GDP deflator•PPI – services

•Import / Export prices

Series not currently in MEI include•Imports / exports volume

•Total deposits / time and savings deposits•Unit labour costs: all activities

•GDP deflator•PPI – services

•Import / Export prices

For EU countries supply driven by

Regulations:

•STS•Labour costs

For EU countries supply driven by

Regulations:

•STS•Labour costs

Still evolving with regards to content

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For EU countries for limited resources available will be to meet needs of STS Regulation (1998 & 2005)

National users have high priority. If not relevant for national use, next-best solutions may be used (while still meeting international standards)

For non-EU countries key national users have priority

RESULTS OF NATIONAL CONSULTATION: MAIN ISSUES RAISED

RESULTS OF NATIONAL CONSULTATION: MAIN ISSUES RAISED

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RESULTS OF NATIONAL CONSULTATION – cont. RESULTS OF NATIONAL CONSULTATION – cont.

Indicators Other issues

Services output indicators, e.g. turnover, GVA

Introduction of ISIC Rev. 4, NACE Rev. 2 – issues of backcasting, linking time series, etc

Labour input, e.g. hours worked Improvements of timeliness of key indicators

Import price indices Increased frequency of existing indicators, e.g. monthly rather than quarterly

PPIs for services

Widening sector coverage of existing indicators, e.g. labour costs, US services survey

Job vacancy indicators

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Some national specific needs were mentioned:

Regional statistics, e.g. GVA

Wage and employment indicators for services, industry

Wage indicator for public sector

STS in the financial sector

Expansion in range of data on internet for free dissemination

Expansion of online databases – very heterogeneous across OECD – format, content, metadata


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Meeting increased demand with limited resources will entail:

making use of existing resources – more efficient compilation methods, use of new technology

increased use of admin. data for STS

reduction in detail provided some indicators, e.g. IIP

better co-ordination between various institutes within a country.


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THANK YOUTHANK YOU

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DRIVERS FOR FUTURE ACTIVITIES DRIVERS FOR FUTURE ACTIVITIES

Activity Driver(s)

Expanded use of admin. Data; improvements in timeliness

National agencies?

Guidelines for introduction of revised classifications

Guidelines for series linking

Services output indicators

Application of seasonal adjustment techniques

More analysis of STS

Documents

FUTURE EVOLUTION OF SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC STATISTICS COLLECTED AND DISSEMINATED