Fusion Chartbook for August 12 2013

7/27/2019 Fusion Chartbook for August 12 2013

1/11

Fusion Chartbook - 8/12/2013


2/11

Stock Valuations

Stock valuations by nearly every measure are still @ fair value.

Source: Big Picture/Merrill Lynch Quant Group


3/11

AAII Asset Allocation Survey (Equities) - Deviation from mean

Excessive over allocation

Slight over allocation

Investor allocations to stocks

are only slightly above their 27

Year mean of 60 % and rising,

suggesting rotations into

equities are taking place. This

could drive stocks higher in int.-

term.


4/11

-0.50%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1.30%

-0.20%

1.20%

1.40%

0.40%

0.10%

0.80%

0%

-0.50%

0.90%1.00%

1.90%

S&P 500 Seasonality Avg. Monthly Performance Since 1942

August & September 2 worst months

from a seasonality perspective.


5/11

LEI MOM Change with 4 Week Moving Average

19902000/2001

2008

LEI still above bull bear divider line or 0 to -0.5.


6/11

University of Michigan Consumer Confidence

Confidence @ highest level since 2008.

Good for consumer spending


7/11

NASDAQ Composite -Monthly Chart

Keeping it in perspective, even if we had

some corrective wave, NASDAQ still in a

bull channel with a 4,000 upper target.


8/11

Bloomberg U.S. Financial Conditions Index vs. European Financial Conditions Index

U.S.

Europe

Financial conditions in U.S. & Europe both

above 0 line. Of late however there is a

divergence between U.S. and Europe,

which probably helps U.S. fund flows.


9/11

10 Year Treasury Yield

10 year yields back to testing a key down

trend level. A break above this level by

bonds could cause some tension in equity

markets.


10/11

National Avg. Unleaded Gas Prices vs. S&P 500

$ 4.00 - 3.80 gas has caused problems for the

S&P 500, thus, we continue to watch gas closely

here as a break back up into that range would be

a negative. Conversely, gas turning lower here

could be a benefit for the consumer.


11/11

S&P 500 vs. Emerging Markets ETF (EEM)

Growing divergence between S&P 500 and

Emerging markets most likely helping fund flows

to U.S. However if emerging markets keep

slipping it could weigh on all global markets.

Documents

Fusion Chartbook for August 12 2013