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Fundamental News 03.10

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Page 1: Fundamental News 03.10

1. There had been some hope that a meeting of party leaders at the White House after the close yesterday to discuss the shutdown would yield some ice-breaking news.  It didn't.  All it did was drop more ice cubes from the automatic ice maker as Republicans and Democrats maintained their chilly dispositions.

2. Prior to that meeting, President Obama told CNBC in an exclusive interview that he is prepared to negotiate over a slew of issuesafter a clean bill is passed to reopen the government and the debt ceiling is raised.  However, there was another exchange that caught even more attention.  CNBC's John Harwood asked the president if Wall Street is right to be reasonably complacent about the debt ceiling getting raised.  The president responded, "No.  This time is different."

3. That indication will spur a negative start for the market, yet there certainly isn't any mad dash for the exit.  The market's angst over the debt ceiling should increase the longer the shutdown lasts, but we'd venture to say that it is still largely operating with the mindset that this time isn't different.

4. Some relatively pleasing economic data has been a placating factor this morning.  Specifically, there were better-than-expected Services PMI reports for both China and the eurozone for September and the latest initial claims report produced another encouraging reading.

The response to the initial claims report has been fairly muted, though, for a several reasons:

1. The market is cognizant that employers have grown more comfortable with existing staffing levels, but that they haven't been in a hurry to hire new workers.

2. The September employment report isn't going to be released tomorrow, so the market can't determine if the tempered hiring pattern remains in place; and

3. Initial claims are due to spike the longer the shutdown persists

5. U.S. equity futures continue to trade modestly below fair value as today's session sets up for a lower open. Yesterday, equity markets spiked right before the closing bell, but the last-minute gains were promptly surrendered after the session concluded. Futures then saw additional weakness after President Obama's White House meeting with Congressional leaders did not put the two sides any closer to an agreement. 

6. The S&P 500 (-0.4%) began the session in negative territory with all ten sectors registering opening losses, and the utilities space (-1.2%) leading to the downside. In addition, a pair of cyclical groups also trail behind the broader market as financials and industrials trade with losses close to 0.5% apiece. 

7. Treasuries spiked to highs in reaction to the report, pressuring the benchmark 10-yr yield lower by one basis point to 2.61%.

8. Commodities are certainly volatile this morning. Gold and silver rallied in recent trade, but neither made it out of negative territory. Dec gold is -0.5% at $1314/oz and Dec silver is -1.3% at $21.61/oz.

9. Copper, meanwhile, just extended losses and hit a new LoD. Dec copper is now -1.5% at $3.27/lb.

10. Crude oil futures have been choppy this morning, trading back and forth above and below $104/barrel. In current trade, Nov crude oil is -0.6% at $103.53/barrel.

11. Las acciones estadounidenses cayeron por segundo día consecutivo mientras los inversores pesan los datos que muestran una disminución en un índice de las industrias de servicios y un aumento en las solicitudes de desempleo, mientras que los legisladores hicieron pocos progresos para poner fin a la paralización federal.

12. The debt ceiling is a cause for concern. If we can get through that and we can get through the dysfunction with this government, there will be a much safer road ahead.”

13. A partial shutdown lasting one week would probably shave 0.1 percentage point from economic growth, according to the median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg survey, with the costs accelerating if the closure persists.

Page 2: Fundamental News 03.10

14. Las industrias de servicios en los EE.UU. ampliaron en septiembre a un ritmo más lento de lo previsto, lo que indica una pausa en el impulso de la mayor parte de la economía antes de que el gobierno federal cerró.

15. A recent rise in mortgage rates may be tempering progress in the housing market, while the first government shutdown in 17 years threatens to slow demand for everything from auto purchases to air travel. At the same time, a report this week showing the fastest pace of manufacturing since April 2011 is helping underpin demand for services.

16. What happens over the next few weeks with the fiscal debate is really going to have an impact on confidence and sentiment for the rest of the year.

17. “We had such a spike (in August) that with this coming off to these levels, there’s still pretty good indication that there’s still growth going on,” Anthony Nieves, chairman of the survey, said in a call with reporters following the release.

18. In the U.S., an increase this year in homebuilding has boosted service providers such as home-improvement retailers, furniture chains and real estate companies. Producers of furniture, appliances and building materials have also benefited.

19. Further progress depends in part on the outlook for borrowing costs. The rate on 30-year home loans averaged 4.32 percent in the week ended Sept. 26, the lowest in two months. It reached a two-year high of 4.58 percent in the week ended Aug. 22.

20. Car sales have been another bright spot in the economy. All four of General Motors Co. brands posted double-digit retail sales increases in the third quarter, Kurt McNeil, vice president of U.S. sales, said on an Oct. 1 sales and revenue call.

21. Add to that an accommodative monetary policy, a recovery in housing markets, low energy prices, and rising household wealth and it’s clear that we should be in good shape going forward.”

22. Any type of disruption in government operations would adversely affect government spending, business and consumer confidence, and financial markets,” Jenny Lin, a senior economist at Ford Motor Co., told reporters and analysts.

23. The dollar slid to the weakest level in eight months versus the euro as the U.S. government’s partial shutdown added to concern economic growth will slow and prompt the Federal Reserveto delay reducing monetary stimulus.

24. “The debt ceiling and government shutdown are big reasons why the dollar isn’t trading well versus the euro,” Richard Franulovich, the chief currency strategist for the northern hemisphere at Westpac Banking Corp. (WBC) in New York, said in a telephone interview. “Markets reacted temporarily to the jobless numbers, but the bigger focus is on the government reaching a resolution.”

25. “One effect of the shutdown is, if it lasts, it would reduce purchases among consumers because federal wages aren’t being paid,” slowing economic activity and pushing rates lower, Kolko said in an interview yesterday. The debate over raising the country’s debt limit “is a different story. In the unlikely case that the government defaults on its debt, it would probably cause financial panic and cause interest rates to spike.”

Page 3: Fundamental News 03.10

26. Treasuries gained after the U.S. government began its shutdown on Oct. 1 as investors sought refuge from uncertainty. Ten-year yields decreased to almost a seven-week low yesterday, the biggest slide in two weeks.

27.