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B U S I N E S S P U L S E
Executive Summary:End of Q1/09
CEOs See
Fundamental
Change
Ahead
Business Owners and CEOs saywe havent hit bottom yet, andmany
expect things will get worsein over the course of this year.
Last month, The Nicolet BankBusiness Pulse reported 57% ofthe
CEOs and Business Ownersin the NewNorth saying thatwe havent hit
bottom in thisrecession. More CEOs say thingswill get only
slightlyworse (44%)compared with those who thinkthings will get
much worse (13%)by the end of this year.
39% believe the economy hashit bottom, and believe thingswill
get slightly better by yearsend; 4% think things will get
muchbetter. (There were no differencesbetween CEOs leading
goodsproducing vs. service providingorganizations, nor between
smallfirms [less than 100 employees]and large firms (100+).
CEOs and Business Owners were
asked if the current recession issimilar to others that the
basicstructure of the economy willremain the same after the
recession,or one that will lead to fundamentalchange. CEOs spoke
with a clearvoice: 74% said this recessionis different, and will
lead to
fundamental structural change;10% said the economic
structurewill remain the same; 16% arenot sure.
While CEOs generally think weregetting close to bottoming
out,they also believe the recovery wilnot be a quick one - that it
will takseveral years to get back to wherewe were prior to the
recession.
CEOs may see a light at the endof tunnel, but many think it
willbe a long recovery. When askedwhat will play the Most
Significan
Role leading us out of this recessionCEOs said small business
(41%)and consumers (27%). A few of thCEOs (13%) think Government
wilead us out; 5% say big business;5% are not sure. Nine
percentgave a variety of other responses(e.g. a combination of
factors,conservatives regaining power,Adam Smith, etc.).
The Business Pulse asked CEOs
to gaze into their crystal ballsand share their view in the
yearsahead. Several scenarios werepresented, and CEOs were askedif
they felt that event would occuin the next year, in two years,
infive years, in ten years, in morethan ten years or never.
http://www.nicoletbank.com/
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How the Survey is Conducted
The Nicolet Bank Business Pulse is a Quarterly Study of CEOs and
business leaders in theNewNorth (Brown, Calumet, Door, Kewaunee,
Manitowoc, Marinette, Oconto, Outagamie, Shawano,Winnebago Counties
in Wisconsin) and Menominee, Michigan. It is designed and
implemented byIntellectualMarketing, LLC. This study was conducted
between April 27 and May 4, 2009.
Participants include: 28% in manufacturing; 25% in services; 19%
retail trade; 5% wholesaletrade; 6% finance, real estate,
insurance; 6% in transportation, communications, utilities; 6%in
construction; 7% in other industries. 14% have fewer than 6
employees; 34% have 6-25;22% have 26-50; 15% 51-100; 8% 101-250; 5%
251-500; 1% 501-1,000; 2% have 1,001 or more.
Questions to Dr. David G. Wegge (920) 217-7738;
[email protected]
When do you see the recession ending?41% say it will end in the
next year; 50% say twoyears. The remaining 9% think it will take
fiveor more years.
When will unemployment return to 4%?Sixty-four percent think it
will take five years -or more - before its back to 4%. (The last
timeunemployment was at 4% was 2000).
When will the value of your home return?Thirteen percent think
they will regain whatthey lost in the value of their homes in the
nexttwo years; 59% say it will take 5 years; 20% sayit will take 10
years; 6% say it will take morethan ten; 2% say Never.
When will the Dow return to 14,000?CEOs dont see this happening
very soon. Onepercent said in the next year; 12% say in the
nexttwo; 47% say 5; 28% say 10; 10% say more than10 years and 3%
say Never.
When will the budget balance?Nearly half say Never and, 33% say
more than10 years. Four percent say in 5 years!
The Crystal Ball gazing by the NewNorth CEOscontinued on a
variety of interesting subjects.We will report the rest of their
prognosticationsin the next issue of The Business News.
http://www.intellectualmarketing.com/
