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NVAR’s 14th Annual Economic Summit
September 16, 2010
The Outlook for theWashington Area Economy
Stephen S. Fuller, PhDDirector, Center for Regional Analysis
School of Public PolicyGeorge Mason University
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
Washington MSA Leading Economic IndexMonth-Over-Year Percent Change
15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change July 09 – July 10
New York
Los Angeles
Chicago
Dallas
Philadelphia
Houston
Boston
Miam
i
Atlanta
Detroit
SF-Oakland
Minneapolis
Phoenix
Seattle
-100-80-60-40-20
020406080
100(000s)
Washington + 41,800
Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Annual Job ChangeWashington MSA
2002
2004
2006
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year
2008 2009 2010
Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Annual Job ChangeNorthern Virginia
2002
2004
2006
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year
2008 2009 2010
Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Job Change by SectorDec 2007 – Dec 2009
Washington MSA
Transp. & Util.
Wlse Trade
Manufacturing
Information
Financial
Other Services
Construction
Leisure & Hosp.
Retail Trade
State & Local Govt
Educ & Health Svcs
Federal Govt.
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40
-4
-5
-8
-13
-11
2
-37
-3
-23
-4
13
24
-9(000s) Total - 79,300
Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Job Change by SectorJuly 2009 – July 2010
Washington MSA
Transp. & Util.
Wlse Trade
Manufacturing
Information
Financial
Other Services
Construction
Leisure & Hosp.
Retail Trade
State & Local Govt
Educ & Health Svcs
Federal Govt.
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
0
1
-3
-5
-3
3
-5
12
12
-7
4
20
14(000s) Total 41,200
Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Job Change by SectorJuly 2009 – July 2010
Northern Virginia
Transp. & Util.
Wlse Trade
Manufacturing
Information
Financial
Other Services
Construction
Leisure & Hosp.
Retail Trade
State & Local Govt
Educ & Health Svcs
Federal Govt.
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
0
-1
-2
-4
-1
3
-7
10
7
-1
7
7
4(000s) Total 22,700
Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Unemployment Rate
23456789
1011
%
Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted
U.S.
Washington
9.7
6.3
5.2
Northern Virginia
15 Largest Job MarketsRanked by Unemployment Rate
July 2010
Washington
Minneapolis
Boston
Dallas
Seattle
Houston
New York
Phoenix
Philadelphia
Atlanta
Chicago
SF-Oakland
Miam
i
Los Angeles
Detroit
02468
10121416%
US 9.7
Source: BLS, NOT Seasonally Adjusted
6.3
Housing Market Trends
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Existing Home SalesWashington MSA
Through August 2010
12-Month Moving Average
Northern Virginia
Percent Change in Inventories of Existing Homes
Month-Over-the-Year-Change2000 – 2010, MSA
2000
2000
2000
2001
2001
2002
2002
2002
2003
2003
2004
2004
2005
2005
2005
2006
2006 july
dec
May oc
tM
arA
ug20
10 Jun
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140Jan-May, 2006 >100 %
Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
%
Aug = - 0.3%
Total Active Listings Per SaleAugust Each Year
19992000
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
0
5
10
15
20
25
LDN
PG
FFXARL
DCMONT
PW
Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Average Sales Price Percent ChangeWashington MSA
All Housing Types
20002002
20042006
AprOct
AprOct
AprOct
Apr
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
6
111414
2022
2 2 2 2 1 1
0
64
0
0 -2
0
-9
-5
-12-11-13-13
-16-17
-23
-18
-23-25
-24-26
-20-18
-14
-10-9-7
0
-4
3
96 6
46
5 47
5
%
Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Annual Change Annual Change by Month
2007 2008 2009 2010
Average Sales Price Percent ChangeNorthern Virginia
All Housing Types
20002002
20042006
AprO
ctApr
Oct
AprO
ctApr
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
5
101414
2223
1 1
-1-1-3-1-2
1 2 1
-3-5-4
-15-12
-18-17-19-20-22
-25
-32-28-29-30
-28-28
-22-19
-12
-8
-2-1
9
5
11
1519
161716
12119 9
%
Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Annual Change Annual Change by Month
2007 2008 2009 2010
20
03
20
05
Fe
b
Ap
r
Jun
Au
g
Oct
De
c
Fe
b
Ap
r
Jun
Au
g
Oct
De
c
Fe
b
Ap
r
Jun
Au
g
Oct
De
c
Fe
b
Ap
r
Jun
Au
g
Oct
De
c
Fe
b
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
New Housing Contract Kick-Out RateWashington Metro, All Housing Types
% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: Hanley Wood
Housing Sales, Actual and Forecast to Sept. 2011
Metro Area
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Housing Sales, Actual and Forecast to Sept. 2011
Northern Virginia
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Economic Forecast
Economic Outlook (GRP) – 2015Washington Area and Sub-state Portions
(Annual % Change)
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
20112012
20132014
2015
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
%
DCSMMSANV
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Employment Change bySub-state Region (000s)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
D.C. 5.3 10.1 -0.7 6.2 7.2 6.7 7.2 7.3
Sub. MD 4.8 -1.4 -26.7 9.3 9.7 11.1 13.3 14.7
No. VA 13.2 4.4 -24.5 16.7 20.4 26.5 28.3 29.9
REGION 23.3 12.9 -51.9 32.2 37.3 44.3 48.8 51.9
Average Annual Change 1990-2008 = 37,000
Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, 2009-2014 based on 2010 Benchmark data from BLS
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
%
Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
GDP/GRP 2000 - 2015
Washington
U.S.
Policy-cra.gmu.edu