Northern Virginia Association of Realtors

March 19, 2009

The Washington Area and Northern Virginia Economic Performance Outlook

Stephen S. Fuller, PhDDwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor

Director, Center for Regional AnalysisSchool of Public Policy, George Mason University

U.S. Gross Domestic ProductQuarterly Change: 2006 – 2011

%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Source: Global Insight

Forecast >>>>>

GDP Percent Change(Real Dollars)%

CURRENT CONDITIONS

ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices

Non-Mfg

Mfg

Annual Change in Payroll Jobs - USTHOUSANDS

Feb 09 =- 4.34 Mil

Source: BLS Establishment Survey

Initial Unemployment Claims

350

Thousands (4-week moving average)

U.S. Unemployment Rate

%

Source: BLS, Seasonally Adjusted

Feb = 8.1%

Housing Trends:New & Existing Home Sales

Existing(left scale)

New

(Rt Scale)

(000s) (000s)

Consumer Confidence

100

Present Situation

Expectations

Source: Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Growth in Total Consumption Outlays%

Source: Global Insight, January 2008, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

%

U.S. Economic Performance

Source: Global Insight

The Washington Area and NorthernVirginia Economies

US GDP and Washington GRP

%

Washington GRP

US GDP

U.S. Washington AreaGRP Change

3/01 - 11/01 (8) 2.5 %7/90 - 3/91 (8) 0.2 %

7/81 - 11/82 (16) 3.1 %1/80 - 7/80 (6) 2.3 %

U.S and Washington Area Recent Recessions

2009 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy

LocalBusiness38.9%

Non-LocalBusiness11.8 %

Federal 33.3%

Procurement15.4%

Assn 2.2% Hosp. 2.0%

Int’l 4.8%

Other 7.0%

Other Federal17.9 %

Other: Health/Education, Media, Lobbyists

Total Federal SpendingWashington Metro Area

Billions Current $

Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Total

Procurement

Federal Procurement SpendingWashington Metro & Northern VA

Billions Current $

Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Eagle Eye, Inc.

Metro

NVA

Thousands

Annual Change in JobsWashington Metro Area

1991 - 2008

Avg. = 45,000

Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Annual Job ChangeWashington MSA

000s

Annual Data Annual Month over Year

Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Annual Job ChangeNorthern Virginia

000s

Annual Data Annual Month over Year

Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change Jan. 08 – Jan. 09

(000s)

Washington - 1,800

Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Job Change by SectorJan 2008 – Jan 2009

Washington MSA(000s)

Total - 1,800

Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Percent Change in Jobs By Sector U.S and Washington MSA

Jan 08 – Jan 09

Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

%

Unemployment Rate

%

Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted

U.S.

Washington

Dec:7.1%

4.7%

3.9%

Northern VA

15 Largest Job MarketsRanked by Unemployment Rate

December 2008%

US7.1

Source: BLS, NOT Seasonally Adjusted

Housing Market Trends

Sales and Total Active ListingsWashington MSA, February Each Year

Listings

Sales

1000s

Units Sold Percent ChangeBy Subregion

All Housing Types%

NVA

MSA

DC

SMD

2007 2008 2009

Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Housing Price Index TrendsU.S. and Washington Metro Area

Both Series Indexed to 1976 = 100

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (OFHEO) and GMU Center for Regional Analysis

ConformingLoans Only

Average Sales Price All Housing TypesWashington Metro

Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

$

+ 8.0 %/year

Area 2007 Price 2008 Price Change % Change

Dist. Of Columbia $537,400 $543,500 + $6,100 + 1.1 %

Arlington $559,000 $539,300 - $19,700 - 3.5 %

Alexandria $502,900 $471,200 - $31,700 - 6.3 %

Montgomery $550,200 $503,900 - $46,300 - 8.4 %

Prince George’s $331,100 $290,200 - $40,900 - 12.4 %

Fairfax $542,000 $445,900 - $96,100 - 17.7 %

Loudoun $516,800 $389,000 - $127,800 - 24.7 %

Prince William $395,000 $257,900 - $137,100 - 34.7 %

MD SUBURBS $435,800 $400,400 - $35,400 - 8.1 %

VA SUBURBS $488,300 $373,200 - $115,100 - 23.6 %

METRO AREA $468,700 $394,700 - $74,000 - 15.8 %

Annual Price Changes by Jurisdiction

Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Mortgage Foreclosure Ratesby County – Jan 08 & Jan 09

Foreclosures /10,000 units

Source: RealtyTrac, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Jan 2008 Jan 2009

Economic Forecast

Economic Outlook (GRP) – 2013Washington Area and Sub-state Portions

(Annual % Change)%

DCSMMSA

NV

Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Employment Change bySub-state Region (000s)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

D.C. 5.8 4.2 5.5 6.0 6.4 7.0 6.5

Sub. MD 4.7 3.4 6.0 10.7 12.5 14.3 16.4

No. VA 12.4 9.0 12.2 19.8 23.5 26.8 31.1

REGION 22.9 16.6 23.7 36.5 42.4 48.1 54.0

Average Annual Change 1990-2007 = 45,000

Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

%

Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

GDP/GRP 2000 - 2013

Washington

U.S.

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