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Z’s competitive position continued to grow for most products although Retail recently affected by competitor pricing tactics Petrol and diesel sales represent about 70% of Z’s total volumes For FY12, YoY sales for the industry are –3% for petrol and +2% for diesel Petrol volumes are lowest since 2004 All volume data indexed back to Jan 2010 and sourced from LAPT returns Petrol Volumes - all channels Diesel Volumes - all channelsAverage Daily Customer Count (000’s)
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Full Year Results for FY 12Momentum continues while progress is made with Brand rollout and Strategy execution
Trading conditions have been bearish and strongly affected by slower global and local economic recovery
1Q 200
9
2Q 200
9
3Q 200
9
4Q 200
9
1Q 201
0
2Q 201
0
3Q 201
0
4Q 201
0
1Q 201
1
2Q 201
1
3Q 201
1
4Q 201
1
1Q 201
2
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
NZRC ZSingapore Marker
Gross Refinery Margin (US$/bbl) Industry Volumes (m litres)
• Global margin deterioration in 1Q 2012• No clear trend for the future with a short
term bearish outlook• Data sourced from NZRC and IEA
•Crude prices range bound $100-125/bbl•Retail sales remain soft post recession•Commercial sales tracking GDP growth•Data sourced from LAPT returns
1Q 20
09
2Q 20
09
3Q 20
09
4Q 20
09
1Q 20
10
2Q 20
10
3Q 20
10
4Q 20
10
1Q 20
11
2Q 20
11
3Q 20
11
4Q 20
11
1Q 20
12 100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Premium Regular Diesel Jet
Z’s competitive position continued to grow for most products although Retail recently affected by competitor pricing tactics
• Petrol and diesel sales represent about 70% of Z’s total volumes
• For FY12, YoY sales for the industry are –3% for petrol and +2% for diesel
• Petrol volumes are lowest since 2004
• All volume data indexed back to Jan 2010 and sourced from LAPT returns
Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 90 92 94 96 98
100 102 104 106
Z Industry (excl. Z)
Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-1290
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
Z Industry (excl. Z)
Petrol Volumes - all channels
Diesel Volumes - all channels
1Q 2009
2Q 2009
3Q 4009
4Q 2009
1Q2010
2Q2010
3Q2010
4Q 2010
1Q 2011
2Q 2011
3Q 2011
4Q 2011
1Q 2012
2030405060708090
100110
Fuel Only Shop Only Fuel & Shop
Average Daily Customer Count (000’s)
Fuel volumes and gross margins are relatively stable despite volatility in demand and rising crude and product costs
2005-2009
average
FY 2011 1H FY2012
2H FY2012
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
refinery marketing
Total Volumes for all Products
(ml per half year)
Gross Margins excluding Store
($m per half year)
2005-09 average
FY2011 1H FY2012
2H FY2012
0
50
100
150
200
0
5
10
15
20
25
GRM less processing fee & coastal distributionOther supplymarketingFuels cpl (RHS)MED importer margin - petrol cpl (RHS)MED importer margin - diesel cpl (RHS)
Fuel volumes and gross margins are relatively stable despite volatility in demand and rising crude and product costs
2005-2009
average
FY 2011 1H FY2012
2H FY2012
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
refinery marketing
2005-2009 average
FY2011 1H FY2012 2H FY20120
50
100
150
200
250
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
supply marketingCR Fuels cpl (RHS)
Total Volumes for all Products
(ml per half year)
Gross Margins ($m per half year)
EBITDAF was at the lower end of the forecasted range due to a tough 4Q for both Refining and Retail
Significant deterioration in refinery margins in 4Q plus unplanned shutdowns in 2HRetail sales volumes and margins affected by increased competitor activity in 4QUnderlying operating costs slightly higher than reported actual due to the release of
some balance sheet provisions, e.g. closure of pension plan$12m of capex carried forward into FY13 as some projects are not yet completed, e.g.
brand rollout
Key Variables Full Year ActualHalf Year Forecast
Gross refinery margin (USD/bbl) $6.70 $7.50RNZ Processing Volume (ml) 1,930 1,970Sales Volume (ml) 2,647 2,600Operating Costs $250m $250-265mOperating EBITDAF (CC) $172m $170-190mCapex $74m $85-90m
Double digit EBITDAF growth continued despite slower economic recovery and increasing price competition
$m FY2012 FY2011 DeltaSales volume (ml) 2,647 2,654 0%Gross margin 422 400 6%Operating costs (250) (243) 3%Current cost earnings EBITDAF 172 157 10%
Current Cost stock adjustment 30 62 -52%Associate Earnings 4 10 -60%Historic cost earnings EBITDAF 206 229 -10%
External interest (38) (30) 27%Depreciation (37) (27) 37%Hedge revaluations & other 5 (9) -156%Tax (31) (52) -40%Asset revaluations - 121 -100%Shareholder surplus 105 232 -55%
Key financial ratios improve on last year and remain well within the various banking covenants
Financial Ratios FY 2012 FY 2011Cash conversion cycle (days) 49 46Return on average capital employed 9.8% 7.8%Return on equity 8.9% 6.2%Earnings per share $0.94 $0.53
Banking covenants FY 2012 FY 2011 Bank limit
Fixed cost cover ratio 2.9 3.4 > 2.5Working capital cover ratio 41.1 71.7 > 1.5Total debt coverage ratio 2.3 2.3 < 3.0Minimum shareholder’s funds $626m $579m > $350m
Note: FY2011 financial ratios and banking covenant ratios are before revaluation on acquisition
The Brand is growing into its potential and initial favorable results will steadily turn into increased sales and profits
24%
50%
58%
61%
9%
Spread to sector average
Brand Tracker (March Quarter) Z
Best Competito
r ScoreFirst spontaneous mention 23% 28%
Experience rated as “excellent” 28% 20%
Service is rated as “excellent” 36% 25%Coffee and food rated as “excellent” 16% 25%
A brand I can trust 44% 38%
Great with customers 34% 20%
Heard a lot of good things about 45% 10%
They would be my first choice 41% 28%
Likely to recommend 44% 31%
Base: All respondents Apr n=1,137.
+22
+1
+9
+10
Relevance(no barriers to use)
+9
Relevance(no barriers to use)
Availability(conveniently located)
Availability(conveniently located)
26%
50%
60%
63%
10%
Unprompted awareness(spontaneous mention)
Consideration(would strongly consider using)
Unprompted awareness(spontaneous mention)
Consideration(would strongly consider
using)
Behavioural preferrer(used in at least 3 of last 5
visits)
Behavioural preferrer(used in at least 3 of last 5
visits)
We have a pipeline of incremental EBITDA from our strategy projects, some of which are already operating
FY13 FY14 FY150
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Retail Commercial S&D
Brand changeStore refitsCar washes
Product procurementScheduling optimisationDiesel portfolio managementGeneral Aviation networkMarine market
We are forecasting recent trading conditions to continue with earnings upside from strategy projects
Refinery margins assume a recovery beyond 1QVolume loss from competitor activity offset by strategic projects and new sites or rebuildsCapital recovery charge not included in these estimatesCapex includes a carry forward from FY12 of $12m and the balance represents the
expected commitment irrespective of timing of spend due to project pace$50m of terminal capex is not included in the forecast and depends on market conditions
Key Variables FY 2013 FY 2012 FY 2011Average crude price (USD/bbl) $120 $109 $85Average crude price (NZD/bbl) $156 $137 $115Gross refinery margin (USD/bbl) $7.00 $6.70 $7.53RNZ Processing Volume (ml) 1,880 1,930 1,901Sales Volume (ml) 2,600 2,647 2,654Operating Costs $260 - 270m $250m $243mOperating EBITDAF (CC) $185 - 200m $172m $157mCapex $70 - 90m $74m $29m