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Full Year Results for FY 12 Momentum continues while progress is made with Brand rollout and Strategy execution

Full Year Results for FY 12 Momentum continues while progress is made with Brand rollout and Strategy execution

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Z’s competitive position continued to grow for most products although Retail recently affected by competitor pricing tactics Petrol and diesel sales represent about 70% of Z’s total volumes For FY12, YoY sales for the industry are –3% for petrol and +2% for diesel Petrol volumes are lowest since 2004 All volume data indexed back to Jan 2010 and sourced from LAPT returns Petrol Volumes - all channels Diesel Volumes - all channelsAverage Daily Customer Count (000’s)

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Page 1: Full Year Results for FY 12 Momentum continues while progress is made with Brand rollout and Strategy execution

Full Year Results for FY 12Momentum continues while progress is made with Brand rollout and Strategy execution

Page 2: Full Year Results for FY 12 Momentum continues while progress is made with Brand rollout and Strategy execution

Trading conditions have been bearish and strongly affected by slower global and local economic recovery

1Q 200

9

2Q 200

9

3Q 200

9

4Q 200

9

1Q 201

0

2Q 201

0

3Q 201

0

4Q 201

0

1Q 201

1

2Q 201

1

3Q 201

1

4Q 201

1

1Q 201

2

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

NZRC ZSingapore Marker

Gross Refinery Margin (US$/bbl) Industry Volumes (m litres)

• Global margin deterioration in 1Q 2012• No clear trend for the future with a short

term bearish outlook• Data sourced from NZRC and IEA

•Crude prices range bound $100-125/bbl•Retail sales remain soft post recession•Commercial sales tracking GDP growth•Data sourced from LAPT returns

1Q 20

09

2Q 20

09

3Q 20

09

4Q 20

09

1Q 20

10

2Q 20

10

3Q 20

10

4Q 20

10

1Q 20

11

2Q 20

11

3Q 20

11

4Q 20

11

1Q 20

12 100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Premium Regular Diesel Jet

Page 3: Full Year Results for FY 12 Momentum continues while progress is made with Brand rollout and Strategy execution

Z’s competitive position continued to grow for most products although Retail recently affected by competitor pricing tactics

• Petrol and diesel sales represent about 70% of Z’s total volumes

• For FY12, YoY sales for the industry are –3% for petrol and +2% for diesel

• Petrol volumes are lowest since 2004

• All volume data indexed back to Jan 2010 and sourced from LAPT returns

Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 90 92 94 96 98

100 102 104 106

Z Industry (excl. Z)

Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-1290

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

Z Industry (excl. Z)

Petrol Volumes - all channels

Diesel Volumes - all channels

1Q 2009

2Q 2009

3Q 4009

4Q 2009

1Q2010

2Q2010

3Q2010

4Q 2010

1Q 2011

2Q 2011

3Q 2011

4Q 2011

1Q 2012

2030405060708090

100110

Fuel Only Shop Only Fuel & Shop

Average Daily Customer Count (000’s)

Page 4: Full Year Results for FY 12 Momentum continues while progress is made with Brand rollout and Strategy execution

Fuel volumes and gross margins are relatively stable despite volatility in demand and rising crude and product costs

2005-2009

average

FY 2011 1H FY2012

2H FY2012

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

refinery marketing

Total Volumes for all Products

(ml per half year)

Gross Margins excluding Store

($m per half year)

2005-09 average

FY2011 1H FY2012

2H FY2012

0

50

100

150

200

0

5

10

15

20

25

GRM less processing fee & coastal distributionOther supplymarketingFuels cpl (RHS)MED importer margin - petrol cpl (RHS)MED importer margin - diesel cpl (RHS)

Page 5: Full Year Results for FY 12 Momentum continues while progress is made with Brand rollout and Strategy execution

Fuel volumes and gross margins are relatively stable despite volatility in demand and rising crude and product costs

2005-2009

average

FY 2011 1H FY2012

2H FY2012

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

refinery marketing

2005-2009 average

FY2011 1H FY2012 2H FY20120

50

100

150

200

250

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

supply marketingCR Fuels cpl (RHS)

Total Volumes for all Products

(ml per half year)

Gross Margins ($m per half year)

Page 6: Full Year Results for FY 12 Momentum continues while progress is made with Brand rollout and Strategy execution

EBITDAF was at the lower end of the forecasted range due to a tough 4Q for both Refining and Retail

Significant deterioration in refinery margins in 4Q plus unplanned shutdowns in 2HRetail sales volumes and margins affected by increased competitor activity in 4QUnderlying operating costs slightly higher than reported actual due to the release of

some balance sheet provisions, e.g. closure of pension plan$12m of capex carried forward into FY13 as some projects are not yet completed, e.g.

brand rollout

Key Variables Full Year ActualHalf Year Forecast

Gross refinery margin (USD/bbl) $6.70 $7.50RNZ Processing Volume (ml) 1,930 1,970Sales Volume (ml) 2,647 2,600Operating Costs $250m $250-265mOperating EBITDAF (CC) $172m $170-190mCapex $74m $85-90m

Page 7: Full Year Results for FY 12 Momentum continues while progress is made with Brand rollout and Strategy execution

Double digit EBITDAF growth continued despite slower economic recovery and increasing price competition

$m FY2012 FY2011 DeltaSales volume (ml) 2,647 2,654 0%Gross margin 422 400 6%Operating costs (250) (243) 3%Current cost earnings EBITDAF 172 157 10%

Current Cost stock adjustment 30 62 -52%Associate Earnings 4 10 -60%Historic cost earnings EBITDAF 206 229 -10%

External interest (38) (30) 27%Depreciation (37) (27) 37%Hedge revaluations & other 5 (9) -156%Tax (31) (52) -40%Asset revaluations - 121 -100%Shareholder surplus 105 232 -55%

Page 8: Full Year Results for FY 12 Momentum continues while progress is made with Brand rollout and Strategy execution

Key financial ratios improve on last year and remain well within the various banking covenants

Financial Ratios FY 2012 FY 2011Cash conversion cycle (days) 49 46Return on average capital employed 9.8% 7.8%Return on equity 8.9% 6.2%Earnings per share $0.94 $0.53

Banking covenants FY 2012 FY 2011 Bank limit

Fixed cost cover ratio 2.9 3.4 > 2.5Working capital cover ratio 41.1 71.7 > 1.5Total debt coverage ratio 2.3 2.3 < 3.0Minimum shareholder’s funds $626m $579m > $350m

Note: FY2011 financial ratios and banking covenant ratios are before revaluation on acquisition

Page 9: Full Year Results for FY 12 Momentum continues while progress is made with Brand rollout and Strategy execution

The Brand is growing into its potential and initial favorable results will steadily turn into increased sales and profits

24%

50%

58%

61%

9%

Spread to sector average

Brand Tracker (March Quarter) Z

Best Competito

r ScoreFirst spontaneous mention 23% 28%

Experience rated as “excellent” 28% 20%

Service is rated as “excellent” 36% 25%Coffee and food rated as “excellent” 16% 25%

A brand I can trust 44% 38%

Great with customers 34% 20%

Heard a lot of good things about 45% 10%

They would be my first choice 41% 28%

Likely to recommend 44% 31%

Base: All respondents Apr n=1,137.

+22

+1

+9

+10

Relevance(no barriers to use)

+9

Relevance(no barriers to use)

Availability(conveniently located)

Availability(conveniently located)

26%

50%

60%

63%

10%

Unprompted awareness(spontaneous mention)

Consideration(would strongly consider using)

Unprompted awareness(spontaneous mention)

Consideration(would strongly consider

using)

Behavioural preferrer(used in at least 3 of last 5

visits)

Behavioural preferrer(used in at least 3 of last 5

visits)

Page 10: Full Year Results for FY 12 Momentum continues while progress is made with Brand rollout and Strategy execution

We have a pipeline of incremental EBITDA from our strategy projects, some of which are already operating

FY13 FY14 FY150

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Retail Commercial S&D

Brand changeStore refitsCar washes

Product procurementScheduling optimisationDiesel portfolio managementGeneral Aviation networkMarine market

Page 11: Full Year Results for FY 12 Momentum continues while progress is made with Brand rollout and Strategy execution

We are forecasting recent trading conditions to continue with earnings upside from strategy projects

Refinery margins assume a recovery beyond 1QVolume loss from competitor activity offset by strategic projects and new sites or rebuildsCapital recovery charge not included in these estimatesCapex includes a carry forward from FY12 of $12m and the balance represents the

expected commitment irrespective of timing of spend due to project pace$50m of terminal capex is not included in the forecast and depends on market conditions

Key Variables FY 2013 FY 2012 FY 2011Average crude price (USD/bbl) $120 $109 $85Average crude price (NZD/bbl) $156 $137 $115Gross refinery margin (USD/bbl) $7.00 $6.70 $7.53RNZ Processing Volume (ml) 1,880 1,930 1,901Sales Volume (ml) 2,600 2,647 2,654Operating Costs $260 - 270m $250m $243mOperating EBITDAF (CC) $185 - 200m $172m $157mCapex $70 - 90m $74m $29m