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From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go?

From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

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Page 1: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto:How Far Can We Go?

Page 2: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Project Courses at Carnegie MellonInvolve real-world, unstructured problems involving technology and public policy.

Provide students with leadership experience in problem-solving environments.

Require a multi-disciplinary, team-oriented approach.Department of Engineering & Public PolicyDepartment of Social & Decision SciencesH. John Heinz III School of Management & Public Policy

Managed by students and monitored by faculty advisors.

Assisted by a review panel of campus decision makers, specialists, and industry experts.

Page 3: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Introductions: Review PanelIn Washington, DC

Alexandra Carr, Department of Engineering & Public Policy, Carnegie MellonHelen Kerr, BP AmocoJoseph Romm, Global Environment and Technology FoundationJoel D. Scheraga, U.S. Environmental Protection AgencyJames Zucchetto, National Research Council

In Pittsburgh, PAMartin Altschul, Facilities Management Services, Carnegie MellonJeffrey Bolton, VP for Business and Planning, Carnegie MellonJarod Cohon, President, Carnegie MellonDavid Dzombak, Professor, Civil & Environmental Engineering, Carnegie MellonJames Ekmann, Assoc. Director, NETL, U.S. Department of EnergyKen Kimbrough, Assistant VP, Facilities Management Services, Carnegie MellonBarb Kviz, Chairperson, Green Practices Committee, Carnegie MellonElizabeth Munsch, Asst. University Energy Manager, University of PittsburghJohn Schenk, University Energy Manager, University of PittsburghThomas Spiegelhalter, Professor of Architecture, Carnegie Mellon

Page 4: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

The Environmental Impacts of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs)

GHG emissions have been cited as a cause of global climate change, causing sea level rises, changes in weather patterns, and health effects.

GHGs include carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), among others.

CO2 is by far the dominant GHG.

Emissions of CO2 are primarily the result of the burning of fossil fuels, such as coal, natural gas, and transportation fuels.

Page 5: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

The Kyoto ProtocolThe Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations under the 1997 U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

The Kyoto Protocol would limit U.S emissions of GHGs to 7% below 1990 baseline levels by the period 2008-2012, as shown below:

1990 2001 2010

7 %reduction

? %reduction

past data

target level

projected levels w/o initiatives

projected levels w/ initiatives

GH

G e

mis

sions

time

Page 6: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

The United States has chosen not to ratify the treaty, arguing that it is not economically feasible, among other things. However, other nations are pursuing ratification.

A growing number of large corporations (e.g. BP Amoco, AEP) are independently pursuing GHG emissions reductions.

Can Carnegie Mellon, as part of its environmental initiative, meet the Kyoto Protocol’s targets?

If so, how? At what cost?If not, why? How far can we go?

Project Motivations

Page 7: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Project ObjectiveDetermine the feasibility of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with Carnegie Mellon University in the context of the Kyoto Protocol.

Process:Analyze Carnegie Mellon’s energy consumption and associated GHG emissions.Estimate potential progress toward Kyoto goals.Evaluate possible reduction strategies.Recommend best strategies.Provide other institutions considering voluntary commitment with potentially useful methodologies.

Page 8: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Energy Suppliers

Off-Campus GHGEmissions On-Campus GHG

Emissions

Carnegie Mellon University

Devices

Users Behavior

Technology

Demand-SideSolutions:

Electricity

Steam

Natural Gas Transportation Fuels

Supply-SideSolutions

Carnegie Mellon Energy System:

Page 9: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Presentation OutlineCarnegie Mellon Energy Consumption and GHG Emissions: A Closer Look

Where is Carnegie Mellon’s energy being used?What are our GHG emissions? Kyoto obligations?

Behavioral Options to Reduce Energy DemandWhat can we do to affect the campus community’s behavior in order to decrease energy consumption?

Technology Options to Increase Energy EfficiencyWhat can we do to increase the energy efficiency of campus systems and devices?

Supply-Side Options to Reduce GHG EmissionsCan we purchase “cleaner” energy from suppliers?Can we produce our own energy on campus?

Policy Evaluations and RecommendationsWho makes the decisions, how are they made, and how can we influence them?What are our final recommendations?

Questions & Answers

Page 10: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Carnegie Mellon Energy Consumption and GHG Emissions

Page 11: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

ObjectivesCharacterize current Carnegie Mellon energy use.

Estimate Carnegie Mellon’s past (1990) energy consumption.

Estimate future (2010) energy consumption under ‘low’ and ‘high’ scenarios.

Estimate associated greenhouse gas emissions.

Page 12: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Defining Carnegie Mellon: 2000Physical Space

3.8 million sq ft41 buildingsBuilding Functions (% sq ft of total campus):

Academic 38%Housing Facilities 20% Research 15%Common, Admin, etc. 27%

PopulationStudents 8,500Faculty/Staff 3,300Total 11,800

Page 13: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Carnegie Mellon Utilities: 2000

$5.23 per MCF$201,25538,500 MCFNatural Gas

$7.30 per Mlb$2,011,588275,560 MlbsSteam

$0.0572 per kWh$4,890,60085,500,000 kWhElectricity

Price per UnitTotal CostTotal Usage

Total Energy Cost = $7.1 million (~$840 per student)

Page 14: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Carnegie Mellon Energy Consumption: 2000ELECTRICITY in million kWh per building

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Mello

n Inst

utit

Un ivers

ity C

en tCyert

HallBake

r/Po rte

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osne

Roberts E

ngineeri

Hunt Lib

rary

CFA/ Stu

dio T

heaHill

Dorms

More

wood Gard

eDonner H

al

E. Ca m

pus G

ar. /S

tadi

S caife

Hall

UTDC

6555 Pe nn A

vG

ymnasiu

mW

hitfie

ld H

alBra

mer H

ousW

oodlaw

n Apt

Frate

rnity

Hous e

Spirit H

ous e

Building

kW

H (

in M

illi

o

50% of total consumption

Page 15: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Carnegie Mellon Energy Consumption: 2000STEAM in million lbs per building

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Mello

n Inst

utite

We an H

allBake

r/Porte

rDoherty

Hall

Un ivers

ity C

en teG

S IA/P

osne r

Ha mm

e rschla

g Ha

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dio T

hea t

MM

/Carn

e gie H

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Roberts E

ngineerin

Hunt Lib

rary

More

wood Gard

e nG

ymnasiu

mCyert

Hall

Re snic

k House

/ Wes t W

i

P hysica

l Pla

nt Build

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Hill Dorm

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all

Frate

rnity

Hous e

Mudge H

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all

MM

Apartm

en tsDonner H

all

Building

ML

B

Over 50% of total consumption

Page 16: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Carnegie Mellon Energy Consumption: 2000NATURAL GAS in MCF per building

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

CMRI

Fratern

ity H

ous es

6555 Pe nn A

veDoherty

Apts

Rosela

wn Terra

ce

Un ivers

ity C

enter

More

wood Gard

e nsHill

Dorms

Shirley A

pa rtme nts

Apartments

, House

s

MM

/Ca rn

eg ie Hall

Whitfi

eld Hall

Woodlawn A

ptsDonner H

all

Mudge H

ous eGymnasiu

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ick / W

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Hous e

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407-409 C

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50% of total consumption

Page 17: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

The Carnegie MellonUniversity Campus,

2000-2010

Page 18: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Projected Campus Growth, 2000-2010

Campus AreaNew buildings added = 286,300 ft2Buildings demolished = 81,300 ft2Net addition = 205,000 ft2

Carnegie Mellon Population GrowthEstimated 2010 total = ~12,700 students, faculty, and staff.

Page 19: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Projected Campus Electricity Use

1990 2000 2010

60

80

100

120Uncertainty

Year

Ele

ctri

city

(mill

ion

kWh)

40

Page 20: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Projected Campus Steam Use

1990 2000 2010

Year

225

250

275

300 Uncertainty

Stea

m (m

illio

n lb

s)

Page 21: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Projected Campus Natural Gas Use

1990 2000 2010

Year

0

10

20

30

40

Nat

ural

Gas

(mill

ion

ft3 ) Uncertainty

Page 22: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Sources of Greenhouse Gas EmissionsDirect University Emissions:

Electricity (kWh)Steam (Mlbs)Natural Gas (MCF)Automotive fuels (gal)

Indirect Emissions:Municipal solid wasteCommuter vehiclesAirplane travel (students and faculty)

Page 23: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Current GHG Emissions: 2000Electricity Supply:

71% coal, 29% nuclear0.74 tons CO2 per MWh

Steam Supply:56.5% coal, 43.5% natural gas0.104 tons CO2 per Mlbs

Natural Gas Supply:0.06 tons CO2 per MCF

Carnegie Mellon Vehicles and OtherNegligible

Page 24: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Carnegie Mellon CO2 EmissionsHow far do we have to go to reach Kyoto?

41,98034,980Total CO2 reduction (tons)

69,60069,600Kyoto Target (tons)111,580104,58094,20074,840Total tons of CO2

2,5002,4402,310780CO2 from natural gas (tons)

30,98030,17028,62026,700CO2 from steam (tons)

78,10071,97063,27047,360CO2 from electricity (tons)

2010 (high)2010 (low)20001990

Page 25: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

CO

2em

issi

ons

time 1990 2000 2010

Kyoto target

Past growth

Uncertainty

7%reduction

35,000tons

42,000tons

Estimated growth

33-38% reduction

Page 26: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Behavioral Options to Reduce Energy Demand

Page 27: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

ObjectivesIdentify attitudes and behaviors among the campus community concerning energy use.

Evaluate possible solutions for energy conservation.

Page 28: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Survey MethodologySurveys showed behavioral patterns and attitudes regarding energy consumption among students at Carnegie Mellon.

Questions focused on respondents’ support for policies affecting their personal energy consumption.

Page 29: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Who took the survey?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

on campus off campus

On vs. Off Campus Respondents

Series1

N = 174

Page 30: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

On-Campus Distribution

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

boss hamerschlag morew ood resnik w elch cat man shirley

Actual Buidling Population

Actual Buidling Population

0

5

10

15

20

25

Boss Hamerschlag Morewood Resnik Welch Cath. Mans Shirley AptsBuilding

Responses by Building

Series1

Page 31: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Overall Attitudes Concerning Environmental Policies

Page 32: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Environmental Concern

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

ExtremelyUnconcerned

4 7 ExtremelyConcerned

Off Campus

On Campus

N= 169

µ = 6.67

Page 33: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

05

101520253035404550

ExtremelySupportive

4 7 ExtremelyUnsupportive

Off Campus

On Campus

N = 155

µ = 3.41

Green Campus Initiative

Page 34: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Dormitory Options:Can students be more efficient and save money at the same time?

Page 35: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

05

101520253035404550

ExtremelySupportive

4 7 ExtremelyUnupportive

Off CampusOn Campus

N = 168

µ =5.18

Lower Housing Fee/Pay Utilities

Unsupportive

Page 36: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

ExtremelySupportive

4 7 ExtremelyUnsupportive

Off Campus

On Campus

N = 164

µ = 5.79

Energy Quota

Page 37: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

ExtremelyInterested

3 5 7 9

Off Campus

On Campus

N = 169

µ = 3.77

Environmentally Conscious Dorm

ExtremelyNOT interested

Page 38: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Energy Devices

Page 39: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Heating Control

53%

47%YesNo

Do you control the heating in your room?

Page 40: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Heating ControlWould you be happier if you had an individual thermostat in your room?

83%

17%

YesNo

Page 41: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

How Students Deal with Uncomfortable Room Temperatures

62.8% open windows 19.8% use fans6.6% wear more clothing3.6% use space heaters2.4% complain

Page 42: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Temperature Problems with Campus Rooms

Rooms having too much heating

40%

2%45%

10% 3%Dorms

CommonAreasAcademicBuildingsClusters

All

Rooms having too much AC

23%

6%

39%

32% Dorms

CommonAreasAcademicBuildingsClusters

Page 43: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Reduced Heating/Air Conditioning

05

101520253035404550

ExtremelySupportive

4 7 ExtremelyUnsupportive

Off Campus

On Campus

N = 169

µ = 5.05

Page 44: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

ExtremelySupportive

3 5 7 9

Off Campus

On Campus

N = 169

µ= 3.27

Occupancy Sensors

ExtremelyUnsupportive

Page 45: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

How many students own personal computers?

59%

41%own computerdon't own

Page 46: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Computers: Hours ONComputers: Hours On

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Ho u rs

La pt op

De skt op

Page 47: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Computers: Hours in “Sleep Mode”Com puters: Hours In Sleep Mode

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Ho u r s

La pt op

De skt op

Page 48: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

ExtremelySupportive

4 7 ExtremelyUnsupportive

Off Campus

On Campus

N = 170

µ = 4.05

Computer Clusters: Light Shutdown

Page 49: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Computer Clusters to Keep OpenClusters to Remain Operational During Non-Peak Times

110

9590

49

3934 33

29 29 2924 21 20 17 15 13 12 11

3

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

C l u s t e rs

S e r ie s1

Page 50: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Behavioral Options:Conclusions

Page 51: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Overall AttitudesCarnegie Mellon students are concerned about the environment, and overwhelmingly support ideas such as the Green Campus Initiative.

If a push toward energy conservation is made, students will follow.

Page 52: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Accepted MeasuresReducing the heating and air conditioning in public buildings.

Leaving only certain clusters on during off-peak hours.

Establishing an Environmentally Conscious Dormitory.

Installing thermostats in dormitory rooms.

Page 53: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Energy SavingsMorewood Gardens as an Environmentally Conscious Dorm:

10% reduction in energy would save 700 tons of CO2 per year (~950,000 kWh).

Shutting down all but three clusters:Reduction would save 565 tons of CO2 per year (~506,000 kWh).

Adjusting temperatures in academic buildings and common areas bythree degrees would save significant energy and money.

Energy savings of 3-6%, ~1000-2000 tons of CO2 per year.

Installation of occupancy sensors:Analyzed in the Technology Options presentation.

Page 54: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Technology Options to Reduce Energy Demand

Page 55: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

ObjectivesIdentify campus areas where energy efficiency improvements can reduce Carnegie Mellon’s energy consumption and associated CO2 emissions.

Analyze the cost and effectiveness of alternative technology options.

Page 56: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Two General Approaches:Incorporate “green design” into future campus construction/expansion.

Retrofit/replace existing systems with more energy-efficient technologies.

Page 57: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

What Can Be Accomplished?Energy conservation projects elsewhere have achieved substantial energy savings:

International Netherlands Group Bank uses 92% less energy than an average building of the same size.

Savings depend on depth of “green design” integration into facilities. The most successful retrofitting projects have saved 50 – 60% in overall energy use.

Page 58: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Available Energy-Efficient Technologies

Lighting:Compact Fluorescent BulbsFluorescent tubesOccupancy sensorsPhoto sensorsLED exit signs

Heating & Cooling:InsulationWindowsSteam trapsProgrammable thermostatsEfficient chillersWindow A/C

Page 59: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Available Technologies (cont’d)

Information Technology:Energy Star computersEnergy Star monitorsPrinters, copiers, fax machinesNetwork infrastructure

Appliances:RefrigeratorsFreezersFansOvensMicrowaves

Page 60: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Questions:How much energy can efficienttechnologies save at Carnegie Mellon?

How much CO2 can we reduce?

At what cost?

Page 61: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Difficulties FacedCarnegie Mellon does not currently have a detailed energy audit.

Electricity and steam use are generally available only at the building level.No inventory of major energy-using devices.Little or no data on actual end-use consumption.

Limited information on energy savings of alternative technologies.

Page 62: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Carnegie Mellon Case StudiesLighting Options:

Efficient fixturesOccupancy sensorsPhotoelectric control

Heating & Cooling:Air conditioningRadiators, thermostats, insulationWindows

Page 63: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Basic MethodologyCompare the cost-effectiveness of each technology option based on:

Capital costAnnual energy savingsNet annualized cost (6% interest rate)Annual CO2 reduction

Cost-Effectiveness = Net cost per ton CO2 reduced

Page 64: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Lighting Case StudyThree switch-technology options considered for installation in six space categories.

Photoelectric switches, photoelectric dimmers, and occupancy sensors

Three fixture upgrades considered for campus-wide implementation.

Tube lamps, CFLs, LED Exit signs

Sample audits conducted of technologies currently in place to determine effectiveness.

Page 65: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Lighting: Improved Fixtures

Opportunities limited because there has already been widespread implementation of these devices on campus.

Device Device Count ImprovementEnergy Savings $ / Device

Tube Lamp 1000 T-8 retrofit 20% 8

Light Bulb 500 25 W CFL 67% 20

Exit Sign 100 LED Exit 98% 60

Page 66: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Lighting: Automatic Switch-off Options

Technology Space Room CountEnergy Savings $ / Space

Office 1500 33% 100 Dorm Room 1500 33% 100 Classroom 300 25% 100 Open Area 50 8% 200

Office 1500 53% 500 Classroom 300 53% 1,200 Open Area 50 53% 1,500

Office 1500 32% 100 Dorm Room 1500 32% 100 Classroom 300 43% 150 Restroom 300 30% 100 Open Area 50 55% 200 Corridor 500 55% 200

Photo Switch

Photo Dimmer

Occupancy Sensor

Page 67: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Lighting Example: Occupancy Sensors

Average net annualized cost: -$95 per year.

On average, -$154 per ton CO2 reduced.

Average payback period: 1.8 yrs for 4 of 6 implementations.

Technology Space Room CountEnergy Savings $ / Space

Office 1500 32% 100 Dorm Room 1500 32% 100 Classroom 300 43% 150 Restroom 300 30% 100

Open Area 50 55% 200 Corridor 500 55% 200

Occupancy Sensor

Page 68: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Air Conditioning Case StudyCase study compared three different options:

High Efficiency RetrofitStandard Efficiency RetrofitRemodel with Central A/C

Standard Efficiency Retrofit Cost$60/ton of CO2 reduced, based on immediate replacement of existing window units.-$80/ton of CO2 reduced, based on replacement of retired units.

Campus-wide savings of 79 tons CO2 per year (based on 367 window units).

Page 69: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Doherty Hall: A Case Study in Energy Waste

Many offices and labs overheated (85oF) with no ability to control temperature, except by:

Opening windows (where possible).Running air conditioners all winter!

Improved controls yield annual savings of ~1000 tons of CO2.

Page 70: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Baker/Porter Window Replacement Case Study

Sensitivity: Net Annualized Cost Baker/Porter

($100,000)

($50,000)

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%

% Energy Reduction

Net

Ann

ualiz

ed C

ost

$45/sqft $67/sqft $100/sqft

Page 71: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Comparison of Cost EffectivenessCost per ton of CO2 Reduced

$(200)

$(150)

$(100)

$(50)

$-

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

Cos

t per

ton

CO

2

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

1. Occupancy Sensors

2. CFL

3. LED Exit Signs

4. T-8 Retrofit

5. Photoelectric Switch

6. Window Replacement

7. Radiator Valves

8. Valve and Insulation

9. Pipe Insulation

10. Standard Window AC

11. Photoelectric Dimmer

12. Valve, Insulation, Thermostat

13. Efficient Window AC

14. LCD Computer Monitors

Page 72: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

ConclusionsThere are significant opportunities to reduce campus energy use at little or no net cost, or at a net savings.

Cost-effective solutions can likely reduce CO2emissions by roughly 10-15% or more.

More detailed consumption and inventory data and improved savings estimates are needed to refine and extend the current case studies.

Page 73: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Energy Supply Options to Reduce GHG Emissions

Page 74: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

ObjectivesIdentify options for supplying campus energy from low or zero-carbon sources.

Off-campus suppliesOn-campus generation

Evaluate options with respect to:Emission reduction potentialCostAvailability

Page 75: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Energy Suppliers

Off-Campus GHGEmissions On-Campus GHG

Emissions

Carnegie Mellon University

Electricity

Steam

Supply-SideSolutions

Carnegie Mellon Energy System

Natural Gas

Page 76: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Current Energy SuppliersSteam:

Bellefield Boiler Plant

Electricity:Duquesne Light/Orion PowerWind (Community Energy/Exeleon Power)

Natural Gas:Dominion Peoples

Page 77: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Options for Future Steam UseCurrent fuel mix:

56.5% coal, 43.5% natural gas

Small natural gas boilers are to be added to theBellefield Boiler Plant to meet growing demand.

Future plans are being evaluated by an engineering contractor.

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CO2 Emissions from Bellefield as a Function of Fuel Mix

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

0 20 40 60 80 100Natural Gas Percentage

Car

bon

Dio

xide

(ton

s)

Current demand2010 demand

Page 79: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Cost Effectiveness of Natural Gas for Steam Production

100% Natural Gas used for steam production:

New steam cost: $8.55 per MlbTotal additional cost: $350,000 per year (based on current demand)CO2 reductions: 8,500 tons/yrCost per ton CO2: $41

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Alternative Electricity SuppliersCarnegie Mellon now purchases 5% of its electricity from a wind farm in Somerset, PA (as of October 24th, 2001).

Emissions reductions:3,500 tons per year of carbon dioxide.Additional reductions of nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, particulates, and mercury from coal-fired plants.

Page 81: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Cost Effectiveness of Wind PowerTotal added cost is $81,000 per year.

Current cost per ton CO2 reduced = $23

Future cost of wind power expected to decline by about 20%.

2010 cost per ton CO2 reduced = $13

Page 82: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Using Wind to get to Kyoto ProtocolCost to meet the Kyoto Protocol: $440,000 - $960,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

0 25,000 50,000

Tons of Carbon Dioxide

Dol

lars

Current price2010 price

Kyoto

Page 83: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Alternative Power SuppliersWe contacted over 15 energy suppliers and consultants to ask about current availability of “green” power for Carnegie Mellon.

No suppliers were able to provide 100% green power to Carnegie Mellon today.

Green Mountain Energy (supplies residential customers only)

Additional efforts needed to find alternative sources and suppliers.

Page 84: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

On-Campus Supply OptionsCo-generation systems can provide both electricity and heat more efficiently than current energy sources.

Greenhouse gas emissions per unit of energy are reduced significantly.

Solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC) were studied as a potential future option for Carnegie Mellon.

Page 85: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Siemens-Westinghouse Fuel CellsSOFC (solid-oxide fuel cell)

Input: Natural Gas

Output: 250 kWh electricity, 120 kWh heat

Operating availability: >98%

Overall dimensions: 9.8’ H x 8.5’ W x 35.3’ L

Operation: Unattended, remote, or local dispatch

Estimated lifetime = 8-10 years

Estimated cost:2004: $4000/kW2008: $1000-1500/kW

Page 86: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Fuel Cell Capital CostAnnualized cost of fuel cell:

Assume lifetime = 8 yrs, discount rate = 6%, $1500/kW in 2008Buy in 2004: $160,000 per yearBuy in 2008: $60,000 per year

Total annualized capital cost (including infrastructure costs):

Buy in 2004: $185,000 per yearBuy in 2008: $84,500 per year

Page 87: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Cost Effectiveness of SOFC Fuel Cell

Cost per ton of CO2 reduced:Buy in 2004: $84Buy in 2008: $13

Sensitivity Analysis for 2008:10 year lifetime, $1000/kW, 70% efficiencyCost per ton CO2 reduced = -$12

Page 88: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Carbon SequestrationNatural sequestration can offset some or all of Carnegie Mellon’s emissions.

19,000 acres of sinks will cover all of our emissions under the Kyoto Protocol.

Markets exist today at relatively low cost.$1-2 per ton CO2 sequestered

Viability and terms of sinks under the Kyoto Protocol is still not developed.

Page 89: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

ConclusionsSeveral alternative supply options can get us to the Kyoto Protocol’s targets.

Costs are expected to decrease significantly in upcoming years.

Fuel cells might be able to supply some portion of Carnegie Mellon’s energy yielding a net cost savings.

More work is needed to identify suppliers of low carbon power for short-term emissions reductions.

Page 90: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Policy Recommendations and Conclusions

Page 91: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

ObjectivesIdentify key criteria for policy options to aid decision-makers in evaluating options.

Review what we have learned about supply, behavioral, and technology options.

Identify a plan and the institutions best suited for implementing it.

Page 92: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

The Kyoto Challenge2000 energy emissions are 95,000 tons CO2 per year.

The Kyoto Protocol goal is 70,000 tons CO2 by 2010.

Projected 2010 levels range from 105,000 to 112,000 tons CO2.

Reduction needed:Between 35,000 - 42,000 tons CO2 by 2010.

Page 93: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Evaluation CriteriaMagnitude of GHG reductionAffordabilityUncertaintyEase of implementationInvisibilityCampus image

Page 94: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Behavioral Options

Students are prepared to accept campus energy and environmental programs.

Green Campus InitiativeEnvironmental dormsOccupancy sensorsOnly selected clusters at non-peak hoursReduced heating, A/C in public areas

Page 95: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Technology OptionsOccupancy and photoelectric sensors.

Address inefficiencies in valves, thermostats, and windows; comprehensive audit needed.

Track technology improvements.

Conform to government-recommended standards in new construction.

Improve metering of University facilities.

Page 96: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Supply OptionsBellefield Boiler Plant – encourage energy-efficient technologies for our steam production.

Wind energy & fuel cells – adopt these as they mature into economically viable alternatives.

Examine secure alternative energy suppliers.

Examine C02 sequestration.

Page 97: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

What Needs to Happen?Energy Initiative

More comprehensive metering

Commitment to meeting Government standards in construction of new campus buildings.

Close tracking of technologies and costs.

Bench-marking to other institutions.

Page 98: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Policy ImplementationPresident’s Council:

Articulate spirit of University guidelines.

Commit resources to GHG reductions.

Environmental Practices Committee:Implement specific practices and programs to reach university’s goals.Closely monitor progress and opportunities.

Page 99: From Carnegie Mellon to Kyoto: How Far Can We Go? · The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing global GHG emissions in industrialized and developing nations

Questions & AnswersCarnegie Mellon Energy Consumption

Demand-Side Energy SolutionsBehavioralTechnology

Supply-Side Energy Solutions

Policy & Implementation