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observatoire français des conjonctures économiques centre de recherche en économie de Sciences Po www.ofce.sciences-po.fr
French Economy: what policies to reduce unemployment and foster competitiveness?
[email protected] – 01 44 18 54 40
Eric Heyer
@HeyerEric
Franco-German Conference
Paris 7-8 July 2016
@HeyerEric
In this presentation I’d like to cover three points : A comparison of the situation on the labour market in the main developed
countries: the stylized fact
How to boost French economic growth ? On the Demand side On the Supply side
What are the optimal conditions to implement structural reforms ? Return to established and widespread views about the reasons of french unemployment
Presentation outline
observatoire français des conjonctures économiques centre de recherche en économie de Sciences Po www.ofce.sciences-po.fr
The situation on the labour market : the stylized fact
@HeyerEric
Variation of the unemployment rate over the last 17 years, based on ILO definition
In % of labour force
Source : OECD
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
France Euro area
@HeyerEric
Variation of the unemployment rate over the last 17 years, based on ILO definition
In % of labour force
Source : OECD
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
France Euro area Linéaire (France)
@HeyerEric
Variation of the unemployment rate over the last 17 years, based on ILO definition
In % of labour force
Source : OECD
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
France United Kingdom United States Euro area
@HeyerEric
Variation of the unemployment rate over the last 17 years, based on ILO definition
In % of labour force
Source : OECD
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
France Germany United Kingdom United States Euro area
@HeyerEric
Variation of the unemployment rate between 2008 and 2015
Source : OECD
In % of labour force
-5 0 5 10 15 20
Germany
Japan
United Kingdom
United States
Canada
Switzerland
Austria
Belgium
OECD - Total
Sweden
Norway
New Zealand
France
Denmark
Finland
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Euro area (15 countries)
Slovenia
Portugal
Ireland
Italy
Spain
Greece
The increase in France is far from being the most significant: it is less than that observed on average in the euro zone
@HeyerEric
The situation of the labour market : comparison with that in the euro area as a whole
Unemployment rate Employment rate
Labour force Labour productivity (hourly)
Source : Eurostat Note : In dark color, you have the level in 2015. In light color, you have the growth rate since 2008
-7-6-5-4-3-2-101234567
France Germany Italy Spain
Level 2015 Growth since 2008 -4,0
-3,0
-2,0
-1,0
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
France Germany Italy Spain
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
France Germany Italy Spain
Level 2015 Variation since 2008-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
France Germany Italy Spain
Level 2015 Variation since 2008
@HeyerEric
A strongly negative output gap in 2015 for french economy In %
Sources : OECD, IMF, EC, OFCE
-3,5
-3,0
-2,5
-2,0
-1,5
-1,0
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
Output gap Potential Growth
European Commission OECD IMF OFCE
If there is a consensus around the fact that the economic crisis could have an impact on both the level and growth of potential production, a consensus opinion exists around the idea on a potential rebound of French economy.
observatoire français des conjonctures économiques centre de recherche en économie de Sciences Po www.ofce.sciences-po.fr
How to boost French economic growth ?
@HeyerEric
Evolution of GDP since the crisis: an international comparison 2008 = 100
Sources : National account
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Recovery period with budgetary impulse
Budgetary consolidation period « The planetary alignment"
Great Recession
US
Germany
France
UK
Spain
Italy
Euro area
@HeyerEric
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 GDP growth 1.9 2.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 1.2 1.6 1.6 Impact on GDP due to… … oil prices 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.0
direct effect on the national economy 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 -0.1 indirect effect through foreign trade 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
… price competitiveness 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 Intra euro area 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1
Outside the euro zone 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 … financing conditions -0.2 0.0 -0.7 -0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0
direct effect on the national economy -0.1 0.0 -0.5 -0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 indirect effect through foreign trade 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
… fiscal stance -0.2 -0.6 -1.1 -1.5 -1.0 -0.8 -0.4 -0.5 direct effect on the national economy -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -1.0 -0.8 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4
indirect effect through foreign trade 0.0 -0.2 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 -0.1 … chinese economic slowdown 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2
direct effect on the national economy 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 indirect effect through foreign trade 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1
Carry over 0.5 0.7 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.5 Internal shocks (real estate market) -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 Sum of shocks impact 0.4 0.2 -1.7 -1.6 -1.0 -0.6 0.0 0.0 Spontaneous growth (without shocks) 1.4 1.9 1.9 2.2 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6
Average 1.6 Croissance potentielle 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Output gap -0.9 0.0 -1.0 -1.4 -2.5 -2.5 -2.2 -1.8
An evaluation of « shocks » on the french economic performance
Sources : INSEE, OFCE calculations
It is clear from our analysis that the combination of these shocks explains a large part of the slowdown from 2011 to 2014. The impact is on average close to 1.5 point of GDP per year for this three years
Most of this impact is due to the fiscal policy
@HeyerEric
Fiscal multiplier depends on the economic cycle : higher in “times of crisis” than in a period of strong economic recovery
-1
0
1
2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10-1
0
1
2… bas de cycle
… haut de cycle
… milieu de cycle
« Period of strong economic recovery » Positive output gap
« Times of crisis » Negative output gap
Null output gap
Source : Jérôme CREEL, Eric HEYER et Mathieu PLANE (2011), « Petits précis de politique budgétaire par tous temps : les multiplicateurs budgétaires au cours du cycle», Revue de l’OFCE, n°116, january.
Impact of an public investment increase of 1 percentage point of GDP, in % central account
@HeyerEric
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 GDP growth 1.9 2.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 1.2 1.6 1.6 Impact on GDP due to… … oil prices 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.0
direct effect on the national economy 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 -0.1 indirect effect through foreign trade 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
… price competitiveness 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 Intra euro area 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1
Outside the euro zone 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 … financing conditions -0.2 0.0 -0.7 -0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0
direct effect on the national economy -0.1 0.0 -0.5 -0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 indirect effect through foreign trade 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
… fiscal stance -0.2 -0.6 -1.1 -1.5 -1.0 -0.8 -0.4 -0.5 direct effect on the national economy -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -1.0 -0.8 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4
indirect effect through foreign trade 0.0 -0.2 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 -0.1 … chinese economic slowdown 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2
direct effect on the national economy 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 indirect effect through foreign trade 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1
Carry over 0.5 0.7 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.5 Internal shocks (real estate market) -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 Sum of shocks impact 0.4 0.2 -1.7 -1.6 -1.0 -0.6 0.0 0.0 Spontaneous growth (without shocks) 1.4 1.9 1.9 2.2 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6
Average 1.6 Croissance potentielle 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Output gap -0.9 0.0 -1.0 -1.4 -2.5 -2.5 -2.2 -1.8
An evaluation of « shocks » on the french economic performance
Sources : INSEE, OFCE calculations
Moreover, we find that when these shocks decline, growth accelerate.
@HeyerEric
The link between consumption and production is always a reality today in France : French industrial firms were able to respond to a consumption surplus
Source : INSEE, national account
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
2010,4 2011,4 2012,4 2013,4 2014,4 2015,4
Households consumption expenditure in
Manufacturing production
Index 100 = 2010q4
When household consumption was declining, production was declining too and when it restarts, production starts again (and not only imports).
@HeyerEric
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 GDP growth 1.9 2.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 1.2 1.6 1.6 Impact on GDP due to… … oil prices 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.0
direct effect on the national economy 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 -0.1 indirect effect through foreign trade 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
… price competitiveness 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 Intra euro area 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1
Outside the euro zone 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 … financing conditions -0.2 0.0 -0.7 -0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0
direct effect on the national economy -0.1 0.0 -0.5 -0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 indirect effect through foreign trade 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
… fiscal stance -0.2 -0.6 -1.1 -1.5 -1.0 -0.8 -0.4 -0.5 direct effect on the national economy -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -1.0 -0.8 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4
indirect effect through foreign trade 0.0 -0.2 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 -0.1 … chinese economic slowdown 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2
direct effect on the national economy 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 indirect effect through foreign trade 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1
Carry over 0.5 0.7 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.5 Internal shocks (real estate market) -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 Sum of shocks impact 0.4 0.2 -1.7 -1.6 -1.0 -0.6 0.0 0.0 Spontaneous growth (without shocks) 1.4 1.9 1.9 2.2 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6
Average 1.6 Croissance potentielle 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Output gap -0.9 0.0 -1.0 -1.4 -2.5 -2.5 -2.2 -1.8
An evaluation of « shocks » on the french economic performance
Sources : INSEE, OFCE calculations
Without shocks, the french growth could have been around 1,6 % during the period from 2011 to 2014
@HeyerEric
Unemployment rate in France, based on ILO definition
5,5
6,0
6,5
7,0
7,5
8,0
8,5
9,0
9,5
10,0
10,5
11,0
1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
In % of labour force
Source : INSEE
When economic growth exceeds 1.6% in France (gray period on the graph), the unemployment rate drop and may even decline rapidly without inflationary pressure on wages.
@HeyerEric
Evolution of unit labor costs compared to the average of the euro area Index 1 = 1999, compared with the average of the euro area
Source : European Commission
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Germany
France
Spain
Italy Portugal
Netherlands
@HeyerEric
Current account balance : the emergence of strong imbalances
Source : OCDE
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
France Spain Italy Germany Netherlands
Threshold for an excesive current account deficit according to MIP
Threshold for an excesive current account surplus according to MIP
In % of GDP
@HeyerEric
Current account balance : a large suplus of Europe and a strong deficit in US/UK
Source : OCDE
In % of GDP
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
United Kingdom United States Euro area (15 countries)
@HeyerEric
Dealing with external imbalances, how much adjustment of relative prices do we need ?
@HeyerEric
Evolution of unit labor costs compared to the average of the euro area Index 1 = 1999, compared with the average of the euro area
Source : European Commission
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Germany
France
Spain
Italy Portugal
Netherlands
CICE
Responsability Pact
@HeyerEric
Inflation rate : Germany should have more inflation
Source : Eurostat
In %
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Germany France Italy Spain Netherdland
observatoire français des conjonctures économiques centre de recherche en économie de Sciences Po www.ofce.sciences-po.fr
What are the optimal conditions to implement structural reforms?
@HeyerEric
the unemployment benefit system : is it too generous ? Scarpetta (1996), Nickell (1998), Elmeskov et alli (1998), Nunziata (2002), Bassanini et
Duval (2006)
Return on established and widespread views about the reasons of french unemployment
@HeyerEric
Net replacement rate of unemployed receiving benefits Unemployment benefits and other state transfers
0,50
0,44 0,43
0,15 0,21
0,19
0,00
0,10
0,20
0,30
0,40
0,50
0,60
0,70
0,80
Luxem
bourg
Pays-
Bas
Portugal
Danem
ark
France
Espag
ne
Suède
Finlan
de
UE-15
OCDE
Irlan
deIta
lie
Etats
-Unis
Allem
agne
Belgiq
ue
Autrich
e
Grèce
Royaum
e-Uni
Taux de remplacement net totaly compris variation des transferts
Taux de remplacement brutde l'assurance chômage
Taux de remplacement en %
Sources : OCDE, Coquet calculations
Net replacement rate, in %
Gross replacement rate from unemployment insurance
Total net replacement rate including state transfers
If you include the state transfers, the French system is not more generous with the unemployed than elsewhere in others developped countries
@HeyerEric
the unemployment benefit system : is it too generous ? Scarpetta (1996), Nickell (1998), Elmeskov et alli (1998), Nunziata (2002), Bassanini et
Duval (2006)
the employment protection legislation : is it too strict ? Bentolila et Bertola (1990)
Return on established and widespread views about the reasons of french unemployment
@HeyerEric
Strictness of employment protection legislation : regular employment
Source : OECD
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
France
Germany
Concerning legislation on employment, according to the OECD indicators, French law would be less protective than the German for permanent jobs.
@HeyerEric
Strictness of employment protection legislation : temporary employment
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
France
Germany
Source : OECD
Temporary jobs are less protected in Germany than in France.
@HeyerEric
the unemployment benefit system : is it too generous ? Scarpetta (1996), Nickell (1998), Elmeskov et alli (1998), Nunziata (2002), Bassanini et
Duval (2006)
the employment protection legislation : is it too strict ? Bentolila et Bertola (1990)
the working time : is it too weak ? Brechling (1965), Heyer et Timbeau (2000), Chemin and Wasmer (2009), Heyer (2011)
Return on established and widespread views about the reasons of french unemployment
@HeyerEric
Annual hours worked per employee, total economy, 2014
Source : OECD
1 200
1 300
1 400
1 500
1 600
1 700
1 800
1 900
2 000
2 100
In 2014, working time in France is not very high compares with the others developed countries. But it is higher than in Germany or the Netherlands and the Scandinavian countries.
@HeyerEric
Change in working hours since 1995 : All developed countries have reduced their working hours
Source : OECD
-13
-12
-11
-10
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2In %, Annual hours worked per employee, total economy
All developed countries have reduced their working time in 20 years (with the exception of Denmark). This reduction was greater in Germany than in France, due to a stronger use of part-time work and especially a short-hour part-time work.
@HeyerEric
The impact of change in working time depends on the economy's position in the cycle when the measure is implemented
Source : Eric Heyer (2011), « The effectiveness of economic policy and position in the cycle : the case of taxe reductions on overtime in France », Oxford Review of Economic Policy, vol. 27, n° 2, summer.
When the economy is at the top of the cycle, increased working time is more appropriate than a decrease; However, in a time of crisis, a reduction in working time is better for economic growth and for employment.
@HeyerEric
the unemployment benefit system : is it too generous ? Scarpetta (1996), Nickell (1998), Elmeskov et alli (1998), Nunziata (2002), Bassanini et
Duval (2006)
the employment protection legislation : is it too strict ? Bentolila et Bertola (1990)
the working time : is it too weak ? Brechling (1965), Heyer et Timbeau (2000), Chemin and Wasmer (2009), Heyer (2011)
the youth unemployment rate : is it the highest ?
Return on established and widespread views about the reasons of french unemployment
@HeyerEric
The youth unemployment : the ratio is more appropriate than the rate !
Youth unemployment rate Youth unemployment ratio
Source : OCDE Note : The youth unemployment ratio is the share of unemployed youth in the total youth population
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Germany UK UE 28 France Italy Spain0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Germany France UE 28 UK Italy Spain
In % of labour force, 15-24 years-olds In % of total population, 15-24 years-olds
The difference is the denominator : in the rate is the labor force; the ratio is the total population. Labour force is not representative of youth in France because two-thirds of French young people are outside the labor force. When you are looking at the ratio, the proportion of young people unemployed in France is on the average European Union countries, even slightly lower than in the UK.
@HeyerEric
the unemployment benefit system : is it too generous ? Scarpetta (1996), Nickell (1998), Elmeskov et alli (1998), Nunziata (2002), Bassanini et
Duval (2006)
the employment protection legislation : is it too strict ? Bentolila et Bertola (1990)
the working time : is it too weak ? Brechling (1965), Heyer et Timbeau (2000), Chemin and Wasmer (2009), Heyer (2011)
the youth unemployment rate : is it the highest ?
the minimum wage : is it too expensive ? Card et Krueger (1995), Dolado et alii (1996), Elmeskov et alii (1998), Neumark et
Washcer (1999)
Return on established and widespread views about the reasons of french unemployment
@HeyerEric
Rate of employer contributions at the minimum wage : there are many exemptions
Sources : Social security accounts, OFCE calculations
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Situation sans allègement Situation avec allègements "Fillon" sur les bassalaires
Situation avec allègements "Fillon" sur les bassalaires + CICE
Situation avec allègements "Fillon" sur les bassalaires + CICE + Pacte de responsabilité
"Fillon exemption" from social
security contributions
CICE
Responsability Pact
Situation without exemption Situation with « Fillon exemption » Situation with « Fillon exemption » + CICE Situation with « Fillon exemption » + CICE + Responsability Pact
In % of gross salary
Recruitment subsides
When you take into account all the exemptions, it no longer exists any employer contributions at the minimum wage French minimum wage employees are cheaper than the Polish plumber
@HeyerEric
Public finances in Germany between 2002-2006 : we can not tighten all at once
Sources : OCDE, OFCE calculations
En % du PIB
-3.1
-3.9 -4.1
-3.8
-3.3
-1.7
0.2
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Maastricht criteria
Public balance
Public Debt (right hand scale)
Hartz 1 & 2 Hartz 3 Hartz 4
When the Germans introduced the Hartz reforms, they decided, at the same time, to let slip their public deficits and public debt beyond the Maastricht criteria
@HeyerEric
Economic growth, Unemployment rate, poverty rate and external environment in Germany
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
5,0
5,5
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
German growth
Unemployment rate (right hand scale)
Hartz 1 & 2 Hartz 3 Hartz 4 Poverty rate (right hand scale)
World growth
Sources : OCDE, OFCE calculations
In % In % of labour force / total population
Germany was the only one countries to implement this strategy of wage disinflation and in a context of strong global growth. Despite the extremely favorable context, it should be noted that reforms have been slow to allow the return of growth and unemployment decline (about 4 years).
@HeyerEric
The conditions today are not the same :
We lead this strategy all at once… … in a context of weak global growth… … and trying to reduce public deficits
It is likely that the results will not be as good as those of the germans
Conclusion
observatoire français des conjonctures économiques centre de recherche en économie de Sciences Po www.ofce.sciences-po.fr
Annex
@HeyerEric
Variation of the labour force between 2008 and 2015
Source : OECD
In %, annual average
-0,5
-0,4
-0,3
-0,2
-0,1
0,0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
Japan Spain Italy United States Germany France United Kingdom
@HeyerEric
A hight level of the labour productivity (total economy)
Source : OECD
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
France Germany Italy Spain Euro Area United Kingdom Japon
United States = 100
@HeyerEric
Underutilization of firms production capacity (French industry)
Source : INSEE
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Production capacity without investing
Production capacity without hiring
@HeyerEric
Industry production held back by ...
Source : INSEE
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
… the lack of supply only
... the lack of demand only
