FRANX Code forFire PRA Analysis

PSA200809/08/2008Jeff Riley

Richard Anoba / Anoba ConsultingBijan Najafi / SAIC

2© 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Overview

• Where does FRANX fit into the process

• Some key FRANX features

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Some history

• FRANC

– Started in 1995 (Exelon)

– Scenario by scenario screening calculations

• XINIT

– Started in 2003 (OPPD)

– Model morphing

• FRANX

– 2008

– Combine FRANC and XINIT

– Add interfaces to cable and fire propagation

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Software Overview

Cable & EquipmentLocations

Fire Sources & Freq(scenarios)

Fire Progression& Damage

Plant Effect(PSA Model)

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Integration Diagram

Franx DataCable Database

Fire Propagation Effects Database

Zone Raceways

Cables Component / basic events

Combustible Ignition Frequency

Scenarios Raceways Impacted equipment

Non-suppression probability

Plant Cable Data

FRANX can updateEOOS Model with the FireInitiators (Scenarios)

Scenarios IGN Impacts NSP

Scenario 1 Fire Initiator 1 IGN1 Impact1 NSP1Scenario 2 Fire Initiator 2 IGN2 Impact2 NSP2….External EventsHuman Actions

UpdateEOOSModel

QuantifyAnd screen

Import

Import

Franx DataCable Database

Fire Propagation Effects Database

Zone Raceways

Cables Component / basic events

Combustible Ignition Frequency

Scenarios Raceways Impacted equipment

Non-suppression probability

Plant Cable Data

FRANX can updateEOOS Model with the FireInitiators (Scenarios)

Scenarios IGN Impacts NSP

Scenario 1 Fire Initiator 1 IGN1 Impact1 NSP1Scenario 2 Fire Initiator 2 IGN2 Impact2 NSP2….External EventsHuman Actions

UpdateEOOSModel

QuantifyAnd screen

Import

Import

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Scenario Management

• Define fire scenarios

– Zone (supports multiple zones)

– Relevant fire attributes (Duration, size, …)

– Severity factor & non-suppression probability

– Fire Impacts

• Failed equipment, spurious events

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Scenario Details

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Mapping Scenarios to Fire Impacts

• Induced initiator

• Direct impact

• Multi-layer mapping from cable database

• Support for unknown locations

• Support for success and degraded effects if needed

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Special fire effects

• Spurious operation

• Changes to HRA due to fire

– New human actions, changed probabilities, blocked recoveries

• Other fire-spceific model changes

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Deterministic Evaluation

• Boolean Failure

• Status Panel

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CDF Quantification

• Full PRA model

– Accepts Mutually Exclusive Files, Flags etc.

• Recovery rules

• CDF calculation from CCDP

• Screening / Hiding

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Scenario Validation & Refinement

• Ones-run cutsets allows diagnosis

• Track cutsets through fault tree

• Calculate importances

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Integration with Risk Monitor

• New PRA model is constructed that includes fire initiators and scenario information (human actions, NSP, etc.)

• Allows simultaneous calculation of all fire impacts

• Model can be used with real-time model in risk monitors such as EOOS

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Interface to Cable Data

• FRANX mapping database

• Import from more sophisticated database

• Plant Raceway/Cable Data

• Cable/BE Data

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Fire Effects

• Calculates Ignition Frequency and non-suppression probability

• Calculates fire progression and subsequent Equipment Impacts

• Import then into FRANX

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Future work

Fire Propagation Model• Incorporate simple calculations of fire frequencies and damage effects

Configuration Risk Management Improvements• Track status of fire barriers, suppression systems, etc.• Ability to change the status of barriers etc.. (not possible now)

Other External Events• Incorporate additional flood & siesmic specific features

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Together…Shaping the Future of Electricity