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9 September 2016
monthly report on food price trends
bulletin
Food Price Monitoring and Analysis
#8
Key messages ↗ Ample supplies and improved production prospects kept cereal prices generally under downward pressure. Maize and rice quotations fell the most, while high quality wheat prices firmed on strong demand.
↗ In Africa, food prices in South Sudan declined in August although they remained high, while in Nigeria the weak currency continued to underpin prices. In Southern Africa, decreasing maize quotations in South Africa eased prices in importing countries.
↗ In Asia, domestic prices of rice weakened in the main exporting countries in August, particularly in Thailand, amid mostly favourable prospects for the 2016 paddy crops and overall sluggish export demand.
↗ In South America, domestic prices of yellow maize in Argentina fell significantly from their record highs as a result of ample supplies from the recently-completed 2016 harvest, while they generally increased elsewhere due to an anticipated decline in this year’s outputs.
Price warning level: High Moderate [Based on GIEWS analysis]
ContentsIntErnatIonal cErEal PrIcES ............................. 2
DoMEStIc PrIcE WarnInGS .................................. 3
WESt afrIca ........................................................... 7
SoutHErn afrIca .................................................. 8
EaSt afrIca ............................................................ 9
EaSt aSIa .............................................................. 11
cIS - aSIa anD EuroPE ......................................... 14
cEntral aMErIca anD tHE carIBBEan ............. 16
SoutH aMErIca ................................................... 17
Argentina | Maize
Bolivia | Maize
Brazil | Maize
Chile | Maize
Lesotho | Maize
Malawi | Maize
Namibia | Maize
Nigeria | Coarse grains
South Sudan | Staple foods
Swaziland | Maize
Domestic price warnings
Warnings are only included if latest available price data is no older than two months.
The designations employed and the presentation of material in the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal or constitutional status of any country, territory or sea area, or concerning the delimitation of frontiers.
2 Food Price Monitoring and Analysis 9 September 2016
for more information visit the fPMa website here
INTeRNaTIONaL CeReaL PRICes
International prices of wheat increased somewhat in august, with the benchmark uS wheat (no.2 Hard red Winter, f.o.b.) price averaging uSD 188 per tonne, slightly up from July but still more than 12 percent below its level a year earlier. Prices initially increased, underpinned by the strong pace in export sales and concerns about crop quality in some regions, particularly in the European union. However, harvesting pressure and ample export availabilities started putting downward pressure on prices towards the end of the month. In the Black Sea region, limited supplies of high quality wheat, coupled with strong export demand, led to a 3 percent increase in prices from July.
the benchmark uS maize (no.2, Yellow, f.o.b.) price fell for the second consecutive month in august, averaging uSD 150 per tonne, 7 percent lower than in July and 8 percent below the corresponding month last year. the latest decline in maize prices was largely driven by improved crop prospects due to favourable weather conditions, especially in the united States of america, the world’s largest maize
producer. Quotations from other origins also weakened in august, with the exception of Brazil where prices hiked because of tight domestic supplies, in part driven by this year’s production shortfall.
the fao all Rice Price Index (2002-04=100) declined by 2 percent in august, reversing increases registered since May 2016, mostly as a result of lower long grain rice quotations. With the exception of South american origins, where quotations continued to firm on tight availabilities and increased sales to Brazil, prices in all other major origins weakened in august. Quotations fell in Viet nam, India, Pakistan and in thailand, where the benchmark thai 100% B white rice declined by 5 percent in august. this was mainly due to the absence of substantial demand from key buyers such as the Islamic republic of Iran and nigeria. a late august import tender for 250 000 tonnes by the Philippines did not make a noticeable mark on prices. long grain rice quotations also softened in the united States of america, in spite of extensive flooding problems in southern producing states.
Wheat prices firmed in august, while those of maize and rice declined
Latest Price(Aug-16) 1M 3M 1Y
International wheat prices
Percent Change
150
170
190
210230
250
270
290
310
Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16
US (Gulf), Wheat (US No. 2, Hard Red Winter)
EU (France), Wheat (grade 1)
Black Sea, Wheat (milling)
Argentina, Wheat (Argentina, Trigo Pan, Up River, f.o.b.)
USD per tonne
Source(s): International Grains Council
188.20
187.80
171.20
215.00
0.2
2.9
3.4
2.4
-2.6
7.1
-11.5
6.4
-12.8
-0.1
-8.4
-5.2
Latest Price(Aug-16) 1M 3M 1Y
International maize prices
Percent Change
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16
US (Gulf), Maize (US No. 2, Yellow)
Black Sea, Maize (feed)
Brazil (Paranagua), Maize (feed)
Argentina, Maize (Argentina, Up River, f.o.b.)
USD per tonne
Source(s): USDA; International Grains Council
150.19
198.20
190.20
177.20
-6.8
-0.8
2.8
-1
-11.3
6
2.8
-5.1
-7.9
5.1
15.1
11.1
Latest Price(Aug-16) 1M 3M 1Y
International rice prices
Percent Change
200
250
300
350400
450
500
550
600
Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16
Thailand (Bangkok), Rice (Thai 100% B)
Viet Nam, Rice (25% broken)
India, Rice (25% broken)
US, Rice (US Long Grain 2.4%)
USD per tonne
Source(s): Thai Rice Exporters Association; FAO rice price update
434.75
327.50
337.00
447.50
-4.9
-1.4
-6.9
-1.5
-2.9
-5.3
-2.6
1.2
14
3.7
-0.5
-3.7
Price warning level: High Moderate
3Food Price Monitoring and Analysis
for more information visit the fPMa website here
9 September 2016
DOmesTIC PRICe WaRNINgs
Yellow maize prices remain high despite recent declines Prices of yellow maize dropped significantly from the all-time levels in July on account of new supplies from the recently-concluded 2016 record harvest. Prices, however, remained nearly three times above their year-earlier levels, mainly reflecting strong exports, which are anticipated at a record level in the current 2016/17 marketing year (March/february). the removal of export taxes and export permits in late 2015 (fPMa food Policies), coupled with the depreciation of the local currency, made argentinean maize exports competitive in the international market, this increased export demand and underpinned prices. Domestic prices of wheat grain declined ahead of the bumper harvest expected this year, but were still twice their year-earlier levels as a result of high export demand. Wheat flour prices rose further and were nearly double their values in august last year.
argentina | Maize
countries where prices of one or more basic food commodity are at abnormal high levels which could negatively impact access to food
Brazil | Maize
Bolivia | Maize
Cereal prices increased in August and at high levels Yellow maize prices increased slightly in august after the decline of the previous month due to a further downward revision of the 2016 output estimate, now put at about 68 million tonnes, the lowest level since 2011. the national average maize price in august was about 90 percent higher than a year earlier, reflecting the generally tight supply situation despite the release of maize from the strategic reserves (fPMa food Policies) and recent imports, particularly from Paraguay and argentina. Because of the drop in production and the attractive high level of domestic prices for farmers, exports are expected to decline in the coming months Prices of wheat grain and wheat flour remained relatively unchanged after the increase of the previous months and were well above their year-earlier levels due to tight domestic supplies, particularly of high quality wheat. Prices of staple rice continued to increase in august and were at record highs supported by tight domestic supplies. the Government recently released rice from state reserves to boost availabilities of paddy in the market and ease prices (fPMa food Policies).
Prices of yellow maize rose further in August Yellow maize prices increased for the third consecutive month in august and were well above their year-earlier levels, underpinned by the reduced 2016 main summer crop and lower plantings of the second season crop due to dry weather. lower maize imports in the first half of the year contributed to the tight supply situation, also providing support to prices. Prices of wheat flour generally strengthened and were above their levels in august last year, underpinned by reduced market supplies following a decline in this year’s output and lower imports of wheat in the past months.
to 08/16 Same periodaverage
3 months
12 months
Growth Rate (%)
6.7
-4.1
Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: Argentina, Rosario, Wholesale, Maize (yellow)
-2.4
0.0
to 08/16 Same periodaverage
3 months
12 months
Growth Rate (%)
6.1
11.1
Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: Bolivia, Santa Cruz, Wholesale, Maize (hard yellow, cubano)
-1.7
-0.6
to 08/16 Same periodaverage
3 months
12 months
Growth Rate (%)
4.7
-2.1
Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: Brazil, National Average, Wholesale, Maize (yellow)
-0.9
-0.2
Price warning level: High Moderate
4 Food Price Monitoring and Analysis 9 September 2016
for more information visit the fPMa website here
DOmesTIC PRICe WaRNINgs contd.
Chile | Maize
Lesotho | Maize
Prices of yellow maize on the increase and up on year-earlier levels Yellow maize prices increased for the fourth consecutive month in august and were higher than a year earlier. Despite recent large imports, particularly from the united States of america and argentina, domestic supplies remain tight as a result of the reduced 2016 maize output. Production in 2016 is estimated sharply down (-25 percent) from the high level last year as a result of a decline in the area planted due to prevailing low prices at planting time and increased production costs. reduced yields due to adverse weather conditions during planting and harvesting contributed to the contraction in output.
malawi | Maize Prices firm but high as a result of tight supplies the national average maize price remained firm in august and 80 percent higher than a year earlier. the high price levels mainly reflect tight domestic supplies, with the 2016 maize output estimated at a sharply-reduced level following the delayed onset of seasonal rains and El niño induced dryness throughout most of the cropping season, which particularly impacted the southern and central areas. as a result of the reduced 2016 cereal output and low carryover stocks, the country is expected to significantly increase imports in the 2016/17 marketing year (april/March). the weak local currency also contributed to the high level of prices.
to 08/16 Same periodaverage
3 months
12 months
Growth Rate (%)
0.3
3.1
Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: Chile, National Average, Wholesale, Maize (yellow)
1.3
-0.3
to 07/16 Same periodaverage
3 months
12 months
Growth Rate (%)
2.4
-2.0
Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: Lesotho, Maseru, Retail, Maize meal
0.5
0.1
to 08/16 Same periodaverage
3 months
12 months
Growth Rate (%)
3.2
8.4
Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: Malawi, National Average, Retail, Maize
7.8
0.5
Maize prices levelled off in July but still at near-record levels Prices of maize meal remained relatively unchanged in July and well above their year-earlier values. the recent stability in prices partly reflects the declining trend of maize prices in South africa, which supplies the bulk of the country’s consumption requirements. While the high year-on-year levels mostly result from tight supply pressure following the drought-reduced 2016 harvest, the overall import costs increased compared to the previous year.
Price warning level: High Moderate
5Food Price Monitoring and Analysis
for more information visit the fPMa website here
9 September 2016
DOmesTIC PRICe WaRNINgs contd.
Namibia | Maize Maize meal prices decreased slightly but remained high Prices of maize meal continued to decline moderately in July but remained around one-fifth higher than their year-earlier levels. the recent decreases reflect an easing of import prices from South africa, namibia’s main supplier of grain. However, the overall impact of the regional drought and the reduced domestic harvests in 2015 and also in 2016 kept prices above their year-earlier values.
Nigeria | Coarse grainsCoarse grain prices continue to increase significantly reaching record levelsPrices of coarse grains rose further in July and reached record highs. Millet, sorghum and maize prices were more than double their values in July last year. Prices of rice were also reportedly high. the sharp depreciation of the local currency, caused by the decline in oil revenues, continued to underpin food prices in July. Increased fuel and input costs, coupled with stronger subregional import demand due to the weak local currency, added to the upward pressure. the national food Price sub-Index (november 2009=100) continued to strengthen in July and reached 207.9 points, almost 16 percent higher than in July last year, mainly due to the increase in prices of cereals, meat and fish products.
to 07/16 Same periodaverage
3 months
12 months
Growth Rate (%)
1.2
3.5
Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: Namibia, Mariental, Retail, Maize meal
0.4
0.5
to 07/16 Same periodaverage
3 months
12 months
Growth Rate (%)
5.6
8.7
Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: Nigeria, Kano, Wholesale, Maize
1.0
-0.8
south sudan | staple foods Food prices declined in August but still at near-record highs Coarse grain prices declined in august after a partial resumption of imports from neighbouring uganda and harvesting of 2016 first season crops in southern bi-modal rainfall areas improved the domestic supply situation. Prices of other staples, wheat flour, cassava and groundnuts, followed similar patterns. Despite the recent declines, food prices in nominal terms were still about four to five times above their levels in august last year due to insecurity, a tight supply situation and the significant depreciation of the local currency. the official exchange rate was allowed to float in December last year to harmonize the official and parallel exchange rates, this put additional upward pressure on the costs of imported food. the currency plummeted even further after the renewed conflict and increased insecurity in July. the shortage and high cost of fuel provided further support to prices. the national consumer Price Index (cPI) increased by 20.3 percent month-on-month in august, while on a yearly basis it rose by 729.7 percent mainly due to high prices of food, which together with non-alcoholic beverages, account for 71.39 percent of the total Index weight.
to 08/16 Same periodaverage
3 months
12 months
Growth Rate (%)
-2.2
2.8
Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: South Sudan, Juba, Retail, Wheat (flour)
-3.6
0.8
Price warning level: High Moderate
6 Food Price Monitoring and Analysis 9 September 2016
for more information visit the fPMa website here
swaziland | Maize Maize prices stable but at levels well above those a year earlier Prices of maize meal remained generally stable but at levels well above those in July last year after the sharp increases in the past months. the high price levels reflect the supply pressure following a second consecutive drought-reduced harvest in 2016 which is estimated 60 percent down from the previous year’s output. overall, the higher import costs from South africa which supplies the bulk of the country’s consumption requirements, also underpinned prices.
to 07/16 Same periodaverage
3 months
12 months
Growth Rate (%)
2.7
-2.4
Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: Swaziland, National average, Retail, Maize meal
0.0
-0.2
DOmesTIC PRICe WaRNINgs contd.
7Food Price Monitoring and Analysis
for more information visit the fPMa website here
9 September 2016
WesT afRICa
Coarse grain prices showed mixed trends in the subregion
In the Sahel belt, millet and sorghum prices were mostly stable in Burkina Faso and Mali in august, reflecting adequate supplies from last year’s good production, as well as generally favourable prospects for the 2016 cropping season. In Niger, however, coarse grain prices continued to increase in august and were well above their year-earlier levels, with seasonal trends exacerbated by the disruption to agricultural activities due to floods and insecurity in parts. In Chad, coarse grain prices generally declined in July and were significantly lower than a year earlier, despite the decline in the 2015
cereal production, reflecting adequate imports from neighbouring countries. By contrast, in Nigeria, coarse grain prices in July continued the strong upward trend of recent months on account of the steep depreciation of the local currency and subsequent higher fuel costs as well as increased subregional demand. In the main northern Kano market, sorghum, millet and maize prices were more than double their levels in July last year. In Togo, maize prices declined in most markets in July with the 2016 first season maize harvest, expected at a good level despite the late start of the rainy season.
Latest Price(Aug-16) 1M 3M 1Y
Wholesale prices of coarse grains in selected West African countries
Percent Change
100200
120200
140200
160200
180200
200200
220200
240200
Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16
Burkina Faso, Ouagadougou, Sorghum (local)
Mali, Bamako, Millet (local)
Niger, Niamey, Millet (local)
CFA Franc per tonne
Source(s): Afrique verte
150000.
190000.
225000.
0
0
7.1
-6.2
18.8
12.5
-6.2
5.6
25
Latest Price(Jul-16) 1M 3M 1Y
Retail prices of maize in Togo
Percent Change
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16
Anie
Lomé
Amegnran
Cinkassé
CFA Franc per kg
Source(s): Ministère de l'Agriculture, de l'Elevage et de la Pêche
115.00
217.00
203.00
171.00
-40.1
-3.6
-32.3
-5
-31.1
8.5
8
1.8
-40.1
8.5
31
-1.2
Latest Price(Jul-16) 1M 3M 1Y
Wholesale prices of coarse grains in Kano, Nigeria
Percent Change
30000400005000060000700008000090000
100000110000120000
Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16
Maize
Millet
Sorghum
Naira per tonne
Source(s): FEWSNET
111750.
108750.
116500.
6.6
6.2
5.9
35.9
34.3
46.5
126
105
127.5
8 Food Price Monitoring and Analysis 9 September 2016
for more information visit the fPMa website here
sOuTheRN afRICa
Declining maize prices in south africa ease importing costs in neighbouring countries
Maize prices continued to fall in South Africa in august, mainly pressured by lower international quotations, although declines were limited by the depreciation of the local currency. the tight supply situation, however, kept prices well above their year-earlier levels. the recent declines of maize prices in South africa halted their increasing trend in import-dependent countries of the subregion. In Lesotho and Swaziland, maize prices remained unchanged in July after the increases in previous months, while in Namibia they declined. However, in all three countries the severe impact of the El niño-related drought on national cereal harvests in 2016
continued to sustain higher year-on-year prices. In Zambia, prices increased slightly in august and were one-quarter above their levels a year earlier, after the reduced 2015 output had pushed prices to record highs in March. In Malawi, the national average maize price remained firm in august and was 80 percent higher than its year-earlier value. Most of this year’s price gains stem from the drought-reduced 2016 harvest, which resulted in tight domestic supplies and a higher reliance on imports. By contrast, prices declined in Zimbabwe, where increased imports from South africa helped to boost national supplies.
Latest Price(Aug-16) 1M 3M 1Y
Retail prices of maize in Zambia
Percent Change
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16
National Average, Maize (white)
National Average, Breakfast maize meal
National Average, White roller maize meal
Kwacha per kg
Source(s): Central Statistical O�ce
2.06
3.40
2.67
1.7
2.1
4.3
-2.4
2.2
-0.1
29.7
23.4
26.3
Latest Price(Aug-16) 1M 3M 1Y
Retail prices of maize in Malawi
Percent Change
60
110
160
210
260
Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16
National Average, Maize
Kwacha per kg
Source(s): Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security
220.99 0 26.9 79.6
Latest Price(Aug-16) 1M 3M 1Y
Wholesale prices of maize in Randfontein, South Africa
Percent Change
1200
1700
2200
27003200
3700
4200
4700
5200
Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16
Maize (white)
Maize (yellow)
Rand per tonne
Source(s): SAFEX Agricultural Products Division
4137.34
3123.25
-7.1
-5.8
-14.9
-10
35.7
15.7
9Food Price Monitoring and Analysis
for more information visit the fPMa website here
9 September 2016
easT afRICa
Cereal prices declined in south sudan but still at exceptionally high levels
In South Sudan, prices of maize and sorghum declined in august after a partial resumption of imports from neighbouring uganda and the harvesting of the 2016 first season crops in southern bi-modal rainfall areas improved the domestic supply situation. Despite the recent declines, prices were still about four to five times above their levels in august last year due to insecurity, a tight supply situation and currency weakness. Elsewhere in the subregion, cereal prices followed mixed trends. In Uganda, maize prices continued to decline in august with new supplies from the 2016 first season harvest. However, prices in august were still up to 40 percent above their year-earlier levels due to localized production shortfalls and sustained import demand from neighbouring countries. In the Sudan, prices of locally-produced sorghum and millet declined in august in some markets in anticipation of the forthcoming 2016 harvest,
but they were still well above their levels a year earlier as a result of tight domestic availabilities following the 2015 drought-reduced output. In Ethiopia, maize prices increased in august despite the recent belg harvest, as heavy rains and floods caused crop losses and disrupted market activities. Prices were well above their levels in august last year. In Kenya, maize prices showed mixed trends in august but remained around or below their year-earlier levels in most markets, reflecting adequate supplies carried over from the above-average 2015 harvest. In the United Republic of Tanzania, prices of maize started to increase in august following seasonal patterns, but remained well below their year-earlier levels. In the Federal Republic of Somalia, prices of locally-produced maize generally declined in august as the recently completed gu harvest increased supplies, while prices of sorghum remained mostly stable.
Latest Price(Aug-16) 1M 3M 1Y
Wholesale prices of maize in Uganda
Percent Change
350
450
550
650
750
850
950
1050
Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16
Kampala
Busia
Lira
Uganda Shilling per kg
Source(s): Regional Agricultural Trade Intelligence Network
810.78
837.02
798.12
-5.9
-13.2
-8
-4.6
-3
-4.1
28.1
16
42.1
Latest Price(Aug-16) 1M 3M 1Y
Retail prices of maize and sorghum in South Sudan
Percent Change
0
50
100
150
200
250
Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16
Juba, Maize (white)
Juba, Sorghum (Feterita)
South Sudanese Pound per 3.5 kg
Source(s): Crop & Livestock Market Information System (CLIMIS)
176.00
202.00
-21.4
-9.4
109.5
122
433.3
494.1
10 Food Price Monitoring and Analysis 9 September 2016
for more information visit the fPMa website here
easT afRICa contd.easT afRICa contd.
Latest Price(Aug-16) 1M 3M 1Y
Wholesale prices of sorghum in the Sudan
Percent Change
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16
El Gedarif
Khartoum
El Obeid
Sudanese Pound per tonne
Source(s): Food Security information for Action (SIFSIA)
3259.30
3561.25
3664.43
-7.9
-3.8
-3.5
1.8
-2.3
-3.9
14.6
19.2
20.3
Latest Price(Aug-16) 1M 3M 1Y
Wholesale prices of maize in Ethiopia
Percent Change
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16
Bahirdar
Diredawa
Addis Ababa
Mekele
Ethiopian Birr per tonne
Source(s): Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise
5200.00
5166.70
5587.50
5920.00
7.6
-2.1
12.3
14.3
15.6
1.3
17.7
16.1
20.9
2.3
16.3
24.4
Latest Price(Aug-16) 1M 3M 1Y
Wholesale prices of maize in Kenya
Percent Change
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16
Nakuru
Nairobi
Eldoret
Kisumu
Kenyan Shilling per tonne
Source(s): Regional Agricultural Trade Intelligence Network
29771.0
30966.0
29066.0
35011.0
3.3
-2.6
-10.6
0
11
0.4
4.5
15.7
7.2
-18.9
-19.2
16.6
Latest Price(Aug-16) 1M 3M 1Y
Retail prices of maize and sorghum in Somalia
Percent Change
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16
Baidoa, Sorghum (red)
Marka, Maize (white)
Mogadishu, Sorghum (red)
Mogadishu, Maize (white)
Somali Shilling per kg
Source(s): Food Security Analysis Unit
5800.00
7300.00
6080.00
8000.00
0
-15.4
2.2
-13.4
32.4
-8.8
0
-10.7
1.3
-5.5
-8.4
27
11Food Price Monitoring and Analysis
for more information visit the fPMa website here
9 September 2016
easT asIa
Prices of rice declined in exporters, but mixed trends elsewhere
In the main exporting countries of the subregion, domestic prices of rice weakened in august, amid mostly favourable prospects for the 2016 paddy crops, about to be harvested, and overall sluggish export demand. the largest declines were recorded in Thailand, where prices were pressured downwards by improved supplies from the 2015 secondary season crop and continuing Government stock releases (fPMa food Policies). In Viet Nam, prices also eased further with new supplies from the 2016 summer-autumn season entering the market, while price declines in Myanmar were mostly linked to lower demand from china, the country’s main customer for exports in recent years. In India, quotations edged up in august, sustained by supply tightness following a reduced 2015 rabi secondary season crop, due to dry conditions, and large State procurement activities. Prices were relatively stable and close to their year-earlier levels in Cambodia and China. among the importing countries, rice prices showed
mixed trends in august. In Indonesia and the Philippines, prices remained unchanged and close to their year-earlier levels, reflecting adequate domestic availabilities. In Sri Lanka, rice prices decreased for the second consecutive month, with improved supplies from the 2016 secondary season yala harvest. By contrast, in Bangladesh, Government procurement purchases, coupled with low imports and a reduced 2016 main boro output continued to push up prices.
as for wheat and wheat flour, prices changed little in most countries, with a few exceptions. they were relatively stable in China, Pakistan and Indonesia reflecting adequate supplies from this year’s outputs, while they declined in Sri Lanka and Afghanistan on account of good imports. By contrast, in Bangladesh, prices of mostly imported wheat and wheat flour increased but remained well below their year-earlier levels, due to high imports in the recent months and a bumper 2016 harvest.
Latest Price(Aug-16) 1M 3M 1Y
Wholesale prices of rice in Bangkok, Thailand
Percent Change
10
11
12
13
14
15
Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16
Rice (25% broken)
Rice (5% broken)
Baht per kg
Source(s): Department of Internal Trade, Ministry of Commerce
12.23
13.10
-5.6
-6.1
-3.9
-3.9
8.7
10.5
Latest Price(Aug-16) 1M 3M 1Y
Wholesale prices of rice in Viet Nam
Percent Change
6000
6500
7000
7500
8000
8500
9000
Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16
An Giang, Rice (25% broken)
An Giang, Rice (20% broken)
Dong Thap, Rice (20% broken)
Dong Thap, Rice (25% broken)
Dong per kg
Source(s): Agroinfo
6737.50
6737.50
7250.00
7150.00
-0.4
-0.4
-0.7
-0.7
-9.3
-9.9
-1.5
-1.7
0.6
0.6
6.3
5.9
12 Food Price Monitoring and Analysis 9 September 2016
for more information visit the fPMa website here
easT asIa contd.
Latest Price(Aug-16) 1M 3M 1Y
Wholesale prices of rice in Yangon, Myanmar
Percent Change
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16
Rice (Emata, Manawthukha)
Kyat per kg
Source(s): E-Trade Myanmar
521.36 -3.2 3.7 6.4
Latest Price(Aug-16) 1M 3M 1Y
Wholesale prices of rice in Cambodia
Percent Change
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16
Phnom Penh
Kampong Chhnang
Banteay Meanchey
Battambang
Riel per kg
Source(s): Cambodia Agricultural Market Information System
1700.00
1836.00
1550.00
1433.00
0
-0.8
0
-1.2
3
6.4
10.7
0.9
6.2
5.9
0
6.1
Latest Price(Aug-16) 1M 3M 1Y
Retail prices of rice and wheat flour in Indonesia
Percent Change
8000
8500
9000
9500
10000
10500
11000
Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16
National Average, Rice (medium quality)
National Average, Wheat (�our)
Rupiah per kg
Source(s): Ministry of Trade
10569.0
8998.64
0.3
-0.4
-0.3
0.1
4.2
0.4
Latest Price(Aug-16) 1M 3M 1Y
Retail prices of rice in the Philippines
Percent Change
35
37
39
41
43
45
Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16
National Average, Rice (regular milled)
National Average, Rice (well milled)
Philippine Peso per kg
Source(s): Bureau of Agricultural Statistics
37.37
41.89
0.3
0.5
1.4
1.5
-0.1
0.6
13Food Price Monitoring and Analysis
for more information visit the fPMa website here
9 September 2016
easT asIa contd.
Latest Price(Aug-16) 1M 3M 1Y
Retail prices of rice and wheat flour in Colombo, Sri Lanka
Percent Change
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16
Rice (white)
Wheat (�our)
Sri Lanka Rupee per kg
Source(s): Department of Census and Statistics
69.67
88.36
-1.3
-3.4
0.3
-4.7
7.4
2.8
Latest Price(Aug-16) 1M 3M 1Y
Retail prices of rice and wheat flour in Dhaka, Bangladesh
Percent Change
22
24
26
2830
32
34
36
38
Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16
Wheat (�our)
Rice (coarse- Guti/ Sharna)
Taka per kg
Source(s): Department of Agriculture Marketing (DAM), Bangladesh
24.54
33.77
4.4
8.9
-1.8
27.4
-12.4
9.4
Latest Price(Aug-16) 1M 3M 1Y
Retail prices of wheat and wheat flour in Pakistan
Percent Change
25
30
35
40
45
50
Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16
Karachi, Wheat
Karachi, Wheat (�our)
Lahore, Wheat
Lahore, Wheat (�our)
Pakistan Rupee per kg
Source(s): Pakistan Bureau of Statistics
35.25
42.22
33.63
37.95
-1
0.9
1.4
0.4
0.7
2.6
1.5
1.2
0.7
2.2
-1.3
2.6
Latest Price(Aug-16) 1M 3M 1Y
Retail prices of wheat flour in Afghanistan
Percent Change
20
25
30
35
40
Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16
Kabul
Kandahar
Jalalabad
Herat
Afghani per kg
Source(s): Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping (VAM) - WFP
26.50
26.88
27.00
27.25
-8.6
-1.7
1.9
-4.2
-5.4
-0.6
3.8
0.7
-3.6
5.2
4.3
-14.5
14 Food Price Monitoring and Analysis 9 September 2016
for more information visit the fPMa website here
CIs - asIa aND euROPe
Prices of wheat and wheat flour generally under downward pressure in august
among the exporting countries, wheat export quotations weakened in Kazakhstan, the main supplier of the subregion, with the beginning of the 2016 harvest and reduced import demand from neighbouring countries. By contrast, in Ukraine and the Russian Federation, export quotations increased slightly on account of limited supplies of high quality wheat coupled with sustained export demand largely from out-with the subregion, while domestic prices showed some declines reflecting improved supplies from the 2016 harvests. In most importing countries of the subregion, domestic prices of wheat flour decreased in august reflecting the ongoing 2016 wheat harvests and low export prices. In Kyrgyzstan and
Tajikistan, prices of wheat flour declined and were well below their year-earlier levels. In Georgia, which heavily depends on imports of wheat from the russian federation to meet its consumption requirements, prices of wheat flour declined for the second consecutive month in august and were down from a year earlier. In Armenia, prices of wheat flour weakened for the third consecutive month in august and were down from a year earlier. In Azerbaijan, prices of imported wheat flour declined slightly in July as well. By contrast, in Belarus, prices of wheat flour rose moderately in July and were higher than a year earlier, mainly as a result of the weak local currency.
Latest Price(Aug-16) 1M 3M 1Y
Wholesale prices of wheat and wheat flour in Ukraine
Percent Change
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16
National Average, Wheat (3rd class, bid, EXW, processing)
National Average, Wheat (�our, �rst grade, o�er, EXW)
National Average, Wheat (�our, highest grade, o�er, EXW)
Hryvnia per tonne
Source(s): APK-Inform Agency
3775.00
5500.00
5800.00
-2.2
0.4
1.8
-6.8
1.4
3.1
14.4
11.4
14
Latest Price(Aug-16) 1M 3M 1Y
Export prices of milling wheat
Percent Change
150
170
190
210230
250
270
290
310
Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16
Kazakhstan, Wheat (milling)
Russian Federation, Wheat (milling, o�er, f.o.b., deep-sea ports)
Ukraine, Wheat (milling, o�er, f.o.b.)
USD per tonne
Source(s): APK-Inform Agency
195.50
170.50
171.25
-1.3
2.1
2.3
0.3
-11.7
-8.1
-24.4
-8.8
-8.7
15Food Price Monitoring and Analysis
for more information visit the fPMa website here
9 September 2016
CIs - asIa aND euROPe contd.
Latest Price(Aug-16) 1M 3M 1Y
Retail prices of wheat flour in Tajikistan
Percent Change
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16
Khujand, Wheat (�our, �rst grade)
Kurgonteppa, Wheat (�our, �rst grade)
Khorugh, Wheat (�our, �rst grade)
Somoni per kg
Source(s): Statistical Agency under President of the Republic of Tajikistan
2.86
3.00
3.22
-1.7
0
-0.3
-1.4
-0.7
-1.2
-12.3
-14.3
-16.8
Latest Price(Aug-16) 1M 3M 1Y
Retail prices of wheat flour in Armenia
Percent Change
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16
National Average, Wheat (�our, high grade)
National Average, Wheat (�our, �rst grade)
Armenian Dram per kg
Source(s): National Statistical Service of the Republic of Armenia
390.00
226.79
-0.4
-0.1
-0.8
-0.7
-5.4
-10.3
Latest Price(Aug-16) 1M 3M 1Y
Retail prices of wheat flour in Kyrgyzstan
Percent Change
25
27
29
31
33
35
37
Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16
Bishkek
Jalal-Abad
National Average
Naryn
Som per kg
Source(s): National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic
28.75
27.06
30.00
29.60
-0.6
-0.5
-1
-4.4
-7.2
-0.8
-4.5
-8.2
-16.4
-21.2
-14.1
-13.6
Latest Price(Aug-16) 1M 3M 1Y
Wholesale prices of wheat and wheat flour in the Russian Federation
Percent Change
5000
7000
9000
1100013000
15000
17000
19000
21000
Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16
National Average, Wheat (Milling, 3rd class, o�er, EXW)
Volga region, Wheat (�our, highest grade, o�er, EXW)
Central Black Earth, Wheat (�our, highest grade, o�er, EXW)
Southern region, Wheat (�our, highest grade, o�er, EXW)
Russian Ruble per tonne
Source(s): APK-Inform Agency
9983.34
16825.0
17200.0
16550.0
-5.7
-11.9
-8.5
-4.2
-14.5
2.4
8.5
-7.2
2.5
6.5
12.1
5.8
16 Food Price Monitoring and Analysis 9 September 2016
for more information visit the fPMa website here
CeNTRaL ameRICa aND The CaRIBBeaN
maize and bean prices showed mixed trends in august
In several countries of the subregion, white maize prices stabilized in august after the increases of the previous months, reflecting improved supplies with the early start of the 2016 main harvests as well as adequate imports. In El Salvador, prices were relatively stable in august and below their year-earlier levels as availabilities in markets, mostly from imports, were generally adequate. In Guatemala and Honduras, the early start of the 2016 harvests, as well as imports, ensured adequate supplies and white maize prices remained also virtually unchanged, although moderately above their year-earlier levels. In Haiti, where the first season harvest has recently started, maize meal prices remained mostly unchanged or declined in some markets in august. By contrast, in Nicaragua, the tight supply situation, following last year’s drought-reduced harvests, continued to underpin prices, which increased in august, although at a slower rate than in previous months, and were 17 percent above their levels a year earlier. also in Mexico, the largest producer of the subregion, prices increased in august after the completion of the 2016 secondary season harvest in July. Prices were above their levels in august last year due to the weak local currency and sustained export demand. a recent increase in fuel prices added to the upward pressure.
Prices of beans showed mixed trends in august but were generally down compared to a year earlier, as a result of ample availabilities from the 2015 outputs, favourable prospects for the upcoming harvests and imports. In El Salvador, the subregion’s main importer of red beans, prices were relatively stable in august and one-third below their levels a year earlier. In Nicaragua, red bean prices continued to increase seasonally in august, although they remained some 20 percent down from a year earlier. In Honduras, red bean prices declined sharply in august with the start of the new harvest and were well below their year-earlier levels. In Guatemala, where black beans are the variety mostly consumed and produced, prices increased in august as supplies from the 2015/16 harvests were depleted and imports from Mexico declined. However, prices remained relatively unchanged compared to the corresponding month last year. In Mexico, black bean prices increased sharply in august, with seasonal trends exacerbated by the weak local currency and increased fuel costs. In Haiti, prices of black beans continued to decline in the main markets in august and were below their levels a year earlier, pressured downwards by new supplies from the 2016 spring harvest. In the Dominican Republic, retail prices of red and black beans remained relatively unchanged and below their values in august last year.
Latest Price(Aug-16) 1M 3M 1Y
Wholesale prices of white maize in Central America
Percent Change
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16
Guatemala, Guatemala City
El Salvador, San Salvador
Honduras, Tegucigalpa
Nicaragua, Managua (oriental)
USD per tonne
Source(s): Ministerio de Agricultura, Ganadería y Alimentación; Dirección General de Economía Agropecuaria, MAG; SIMPAH
423.94
418.66
457.60
553.96
0.8
3
0.3
1.9
10.9
-1.3
10.3
45
6.7
-8
-2.3
10.7
Latest Price(Aug-16) 1M 3M 1Y
Reatil prices of beans in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
Percent Change
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16
Beans (red)
Beans (black)
Dominican Peso per Libra
Source(s): Secretaria de Estado de Agricultura
45.27
41.00
0.4
-1.1
2
-2.5
-17.1
-8.2
17Food Price Monitoring and Analysis
for more information visit the fPMa website here
9 September 2016
sOuTh ameRICa
Prices of maize and wheat remained at high levels in august
Prices of yellow maize and wheat flour followed mixed trends in august but were generally at levels above those a year earlier supported by tight domestic supplies. In Argentina, prices of yellow maize dropped significantly from the record levels in July on account of new supplies from the recently-concluded 2016 record harvest. Prices, however, remained nearly three times above their year-earlier levels, mainly reflecting strong exports supported by a weak local currency. In Brazil, prices increased slightly in august after the decline of the previous month due to the further downward revision of the 2016 second season maize output, affected by dry weather. the national average maize price in august was about 90 percent higher than a year earlier, reflecting the generally tight supply situation. In Bolivia, yellow maize prices increased for the third consecutive month in august and were well above their year-earlier levels, underpinned by the reduced 2016 main summer crop and lower plantings of the second season crop due to dry weather. In Ecuador, prices showed mixed trends but were higher than in august last year, supported by a decline in the 2016 main season winter harvest, due to reduced plantings and damage to crops from pests and diseases. In Chile
and in Peru, maize prices in august were higher than a year earlier. Despite recent large imports, supplies remain tight as a result of the reduced 2016 maize outputs. In Colombia, yellow maize prices, in nominal terms, were also higher than their levels in august last year.
Domestic prices of wheat grain declined in Argentina ahead of the bumper harvest expected this year, but were still twice their year-earlier levels as a result of high export demand. Wheat flour prices rose further and were nearly double their values in august last year. In Brazil, prices of wheat grain and wheat flour remained relatively unchanged, after the increase of the previous months, and were well above their year-earlier levels due to tight domestic supplies, particularly of high quality wheat. In Bolivia, prices of wheat flour generally strengthened and were above their levels in august last year, underpinned by reduced market supplies following a decline in this year’s output and lower imports of wheat in the past months. In Chile and Peru, prices of wheat and wheat flour were stable and down from a year earlier, reflecting expected good 2016 outputs and adequate imports. Prices increased in Ecuador, while they declined in Colombia.
Latest Price(Aug-16) 1M 3M 1Y
Wholesale prices of yellow maize in Argentina
Percent Change
800
1300
1800
2300
2800
Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16
Rosario, Maize (yellow)
Argentine Peso per tonne
Source(s): Bolsa de Cereales
2407.73 -10.3 -5.8 165.6
Latest Price(Aug-16) 1M 3M 1Y
Wholesale prices of yellow maize in Bolivia
Percent Change
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16
Santa Cruz, Maize (hard yellow, cubano)
La Paz, Maize (hard yellow, cubano)
Cochabamba, Maize (hard yellow, cubano)
Boliviano per Spanish quintal (46 kg)
Source(s): Servicio de Información y Análisis de Mercados Agropecuarios, Bolivia
96.30
152.00
102.74
2.6
12.6
3.5
36.8
71.2
35.4
111
68.9
92.5
This bulletin is prepared by the Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Team in the Trade and Markets Division of FAO. It contains latest information and analysis on domestic prices of basic foods mainly in developing countries, complementing FAO analysis on international markets. It provides early warning on high food prices at country level that may negatively affect food security.
This report is based on information available up to early September 2016.
All the data used in the analysis can be found in the FPMA Tool at: www.fao.org/giews/pricetool
For more information visit the FPMA Website at: www.fao.org/giews/food-prices
Enquiries may be directed to:GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) TeamTrade and Markets Division (EST) Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)Viale delle Terme di Caracalla00153 Rome, ItalyE-mail: [email protected]
Disclaimer The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) concerning the legal or development status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers, whether or not these have been patented, does not imply that these have been endorsed or recommended by FAO in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned.
The views expressed in this information product are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of FAO.
© FAO, 2016
Food Price Monitoring and Analysis | 9 September 2016 C0370E/1/09.16