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FORTUM Power and heat company in the Nordic area, Russia, Poland and the Baltics
Investor / Analyst material
February 2013
2
Disclaimer
This presentation does not constitute an invitation to underwrite, subscribe for,
or otherwise acquire or dispose of any Fortum shares.
Past performance is no guide to future performance, and persons needing
advice should consult an independent financial adviser.
Content
3
Fortum today, pages 4 -16
European and Nordic power markets, pages 18 - 29
Data on Fortum’s nuclear fleet, pages 32 - 36
Russia, pages 38 - 45
Data on capacity payments, pages 40 - 42
Fortum’s investment programme, page 45
Financials and outlook, pages 47 – 54
Hedges, pages 53 - 54
More than 100,000 shareholders
• Power and heat company in the Nordic countries, Russia, Poland and the Baltics
• Listed at the Helsinki Stock Exchange since 1998
• Among the most traded shares on the NASDAQ OMX Helsinki stock exchange
• Market cap ~13 billion euros
4
31 January 2013
Foreign investors 24.3% Finnish State 50.8%
Other Finnish investors 10.5%
Households 10.8%
Financial and insurance institutions 3.6%
Capital returns
• Proposed dividend for 2012 EUR 1.00 per share, in total ~EUR 0.9 billion*
• Dividend policy of 50-60% payout of previous year's results on average
5
Total ~ 9,518 MEUR*
1999 2001 2003 2000 2002 2004
0.18 0.23 0.26
0.31 0.42
0.58
2005
1.12
Dividend per share EUR
0.13
1998
0.5
8
0.5
4
2006
1.26
0.7
3
0.5
3
2007
1.35
0.7
7
0.5
8
2008
1.00
72% 103% 78% 58%
1.00
2009
68%
1.00
2010
68%
1.00
2011
50%
2012
1.00*
63%
* According to a proposal
Organisational structure
6
Business Divisions
President and CEO
Tapio Kuula
Electricity Solutions and Distribution (Espoo)
Executive Vice President Timo Karttinen
Power (Espoo) Executive Vice President
Matti Ruotsala
Heat (Stockholm) Executive Vice President
Per Langer
Russia (Chelyabinsk) Executive Vice President
Alexander Chuvaev
Finance Chief Financial Officer
Markus Rauramo
Corporate Communications Senior Vice President
Helena Aatinen
Corporate Human Resources Senior Vice President
Mikael Frisk
Staff Functions
Country responsibles: Timo Karttinen / Finland, Norway; Per Langer / Sweden, Poland, Baltics; Alexander Chuvaev / Russia
Fortum’s Mission and Strategy
7
Strategy
Fortum’s purpose is to create energy that improves life for present and future
generations. We provide sustainable solutions to the society and deliver
excellent value to our shareholders.
Mission
Build on the strong
Nordic core
Create solid earnings
growth in Russia
Build platform for
future growth
Competence in CO2-free hydro and nuclear, efficient CHP production and
energy markets
Our geographical presence today
8
TGC-1 (~25%)
Power generation ~7 TWh
Heat sales ~8 TWh
OAO Fortum
Power generation 19.2 TWh
Heat sales 26.4 TWh
Russia
Poland Power generation 0.8 TWh
Heat sales 4.3 TWh
Baltic countries Power generation 0.4 TWh
Heat sales 0.9 TWh
Nordic countries
Power generation 51.6 TWh
Heat sales 14.5 TWh
Distribution customers 1.6 million
Electricity customers 1.2 million
Nr 2 Power
generation
Electricity
sales
Nr 2
Nr 1 Heat
Distribution
Nr 1
Key figures 2012 Sales EUR 6.2 bn
Operating profit EUR 1.9 bn
Balance sheet EUR 25 bn
Personnel 10,400
Great Britain Power generation 1.1 TWh
Heat sales 1.8 TWh
Divisions of Fortum
9
Power Division
Fortum’s power generation,
physical operation and
trading as well as expert
services for power
producers.
Heat Division
Combined heat and power
generation, district heating
and cooling activities and
b- to-b heating solutions.
Electricity Solutions and
Distribution Division
Fortum's electricity sales and
distribution activities. Two
business areas: Distribution
and Electricity Sales.
Russia Division
Power and heat generation
and sales in Russia. It
includes OAO Fortum and
Fortum’s slightly over 25%
holding in TGC-1.
Business
description
Comparable
operating
profit
Net assets
Volume
(TWh)
Drivers
EUR 1,144 million
Distr.: EUR 3,911 million
El. sales: EUR 59 million
EUR 3,846 million
EUR 266 million Distr.: EUR 317 million
El. sales: EUR 38 million
EUR 68 million
Distr.net. 26.6, reg.net. 17.3
El. sales: 13.0
Heat sales 19.7
Power sales: 4.2 Nordic generation 49,2
EUR 6,454 million EUR 4,335 million
Fuel mix, heat and
power price
Nordic power price,
generation volumes New capacity, and price for
that, power and heat price
Power sales.: 23.3
Heat sales.: 26.4
Distr.: Regulated
El. sales: Sales margin
Fortum mid-sized European power generation player; Global #4 in heat
10
* incl. TGC-5, TGC-6, TGC-7, TGC-9, ** incl. TGC-12, TGC-13, *** incl. International Power
Source: Company information, Fortum analyses, 2010 figures pro forma, heat production of Beijing DH not available.
Largest global producers, 2010 TWh
Largest producers in Europe and Russia, 2010 TWh
Power generation Heat production
Electricity customers in EU, 2010 millions
Customers
DEI
Irkutskenergo
*) IES
Iberdrola
RusHydro Fortum
EnBW
Vattenfall
CEZ
RWE
PGE SSE
Statkraft
Rosenergoatom Gazprom
NNEGC Energoat.
Enel
E.ON EDF
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Inter RAO UES
GDF SUEZ ***)
Onexim
Tatenergo
Minsk Energo Kievenergo
Irkutskenergo Bashkirenergo
RAO ES East Inter RAO UES
TGC-2
Fortum
Dong Energy KDHC, Korea
TGC-14
Lukoil
Gazprom
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
ELCEN, Rom.
Dalkia
SUEK **)
*) IES
Vattenfall
PGNiG
0 20 40 10 30
DEI
CEZ
Enel
Centrica
EDP
Iberdrola
SSE
EnBW
Fortum
EDF
E.ON
RWE
Gas Natural Fenosa
PGE
Tauron
GDF SUEZ
Hafslund
Dong Energy
Vattenfall
Biggest nuclear and hydro generators in Europe and Russia
11
TWh E
DF
Rosenerg
oato
m
E.O
N
NN
EG
C E
nerg
oato
m
Enel
RusH
ydro
Vattenfa
ll
GD
F S
UE
Z
Irkuts
kenerg
o
Sta
tkra
ft
RW
E
Iberd
rola
Fo
rtu
m
EnB
W
CE
Z
Verb
und
Kra
snoyars
kaya
HP
P
Axpo
Hid
roele
ctr
ica
ED
P
Gazpro
m
Alp
iq
Ukrh
ydro
energ
o
EP
S, S
erb
ia
Gas N
atu
ral F
enosa
E-C
O E
nerg
i
Nors
k H
ydro
DE
I
Agder
Energ
i
Edis
on
BK
K
Inte
r R
AO
UE
S
SS
E
PG
E
IES
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
Total generation
Other
Nuclear
Hydro
Figures 2010 pro forma
Fortum's carbon exposure among the lowest in Europe
12
Source:
PWC & Enerpresse, Novembre 2012
Changement climatique et Électricité, Fortum
Note: * includes Scottish Power
Figures for all other companies include only European generation.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
DE
I
Dra
x
RW
E
CE
Z
SS
E
Edip
ow
er
Vattenfa
ll
Enel
ED
P
E.O
N
GdF
Suez E
uro
pe
Do
ng
Un
ion
Feno
sa
EnB
W
*Iberd
rola
Fort
um
tota
l
Verb
und
PV
O
Fort
um
EU
ED
F
Sta
tkra
ft
88
g CO2/kWh electricity, 2011
2011
65% of Fortum's total power generation CO2-free
85% of Fortum’s power generation in the EU CO2-free
Close to 100% of the ongoing investment programme
in the EU CO2-free
Average 338 g/kWh
192
Fortum’s strategic route
13
Divestment of
non-strategic
heat business
Länsivoima
→100% E.ON Finland
Separation of
oil businesses
Elnova
50%→100%
District heat
in Poland 2003 →
Østfold
Shares in
Hafslund
Shares in
Lenenergo
Starting
TGC-1
Divestment of
Lenenergo
shares
TGC-10
Divestment of
Fingrid shares
Divestment of
heat operations
outside of
Stockholm
2008 2005 2006 2007 2002 2003 2004 1999 2000 2001 1996 1998 2009 2010 2011
Länsivoima
45% → 65%
2012
Stockholm
Energi
Gullspång
Birka Energi 50% Fortum
50% Stockholm
Gullspång
Skandinaviska
Elverk
Birka Energi
50% → 100%
Stora
Kraft
Lenenergo
shares 1998→
IVO
1997
Neste
Divestment
of small
scale hydro
14
Fortum in the Nordic electricity value chain
Competitive businesses
Regulated businesses
Power generation
Nordic wholesale market
Power exchange and
bilateral agreements
Large customers
Retail customers
Private customers, small businesses
Independent transmission system
operator
Independent distribution companies Distribution Transmission and
system services
Hydro power
47%
Coal 4%
Other 1%
Nuclear power 43%
Biomass 2%
European generation 53.9 TWh
(Generation capacity 11,271 MW)
Fortum's European
power generation in 2012
Natural gas 3%
European production 18.5 TWh
(Production capacity 9,035 MW)
Fortum's European
heat production in 2012
Peat 2%
Oil 2%
Heat pumps, electricity
18%
Waste 10%
Natural gas
21%
Coal 20%
Biomass fuels
27%
Fortum's European power and heat production
15
Fortum a forerunner in sustainability
• Dow Jones Sustainability World Index
– Included for ten consecutive years
– Fortum the only Nordic power and heat company
• Carbon Disclosure Leadership Index
– Fortum globally third best company in the utility
sector 2012
– Fortum the only Nordic power and heat company
• SAM Sustainability Yearbook
• STOXX® Global ESG Leaders indices
• oekom
• OMX GES Sustainability Finland Index
• Storebrand SRI
16
European and Nordic power markets
17
Fortum today, pages 4 -16
European and Nordic power markets, pages 18 - 29
Data on Fortum’s nuclear fleet, pages 32 - 36
Russia, pages 37 - 44
Data on capacity payments, pages 40 - 42
Fortum’s investment programme, page 44
Financials and outlook, pages 47 – 55
Hedges, pages 52 - 53
Market coupling milestones - cross-border power flows optimised by power exchanges
• Market coupling between NL, BE and FR since 2006
• Germany – Nord Pool Spot coupling started 11/2009
• Market coupling for Central Western Europe (DE, FR, BeNeLux) since 11/2010 with a continued coupling mechanism with Nord Pool Spot
• NorNed cable (NO-NL) included in January 2011
• Poland coupled with Nord Pool Spot since December 2010
• UK coupling started through BritNed cable in April 2011
• Czech, Slovakia and Hungary coupled since September 2012
• The TSOs and power exchanges are developing a single market coupling for the whole western Europe by end-2013
• In addition to day-ahead coupling, intraday market coupling and balancing market integration targeted as well
• Estonian price area in Nord Pool Spot since April 2010, Lithuanian bidding area from 6/2012, Latvia to follow in June 2013
• EU’s European Target Model for cross-border power trading sets 2014 as deadline for an EU-wide market coupling
18
2009
2013
2012
2010-
2013
Current transmission capacity from Nordic area to Continental Europe is over 4000 MW
19
Countries Transmission capacity MW
From Nordics To Nordics
Denmark - Germany 2,365 2,100
Sweden - Germany 610 600
Sweden - Poland 600 600
Norway - Netherlands 700 700
Total 4,275 4,000
• Theoretical maximum in transmission capacity ~35 TWh
per annum
• Net export from Nordic area to Continental Europe
during the Nordic wet year 2012 was ~18 TWh
• During 2011 net export was 7 TWh
• Approximately 20 TWh of net export is now reachable
700
2,365 610 600
350
Nordic and Continental markets are integrating – interconnection capacity could double by 2020
20
Both TSO and merchant projects for
links to the UK by 2020; North Seas
Countries’ Offshore Grid Initiative
launched for supergrid development
First direct 1,400 MW NO-DE link
agreed to be built by 2018
EU financial support for 700 MW
DK-NL link to connect offshore
wind, too
Jutland – DE capacity planned to
grow by 1,000-1,500 MW by 2017
EU support to connect Kriegers
Flak offshore wind area to DK&DE
by 2020
European Commission included the Northern
Seas Offshore Grid and the Baltic Energy Market
Integration Plan as priority electricity corridors in
its 2011 Infrastructure Package proposal
New interconnections
could double the capacity
to over 8,000 MW by 2020
LitPol Link of 1,000 MW to
connect the Baltic market to
Poland by 2015/20. It would open a
new transmission route from the
Nordic market to the Continent
EU’s European Energy Programme
for Recovery cofinancing Estlink 2
and NordBalt
New internal Nordic grid
investments provide for increased
available capacity for export to the
Continent and Baltics
Nordic water reservoirs
21
2000 2003 2010 2012 2011 reference level 2013
rese
rvo
ir c
on
ten
t (T
Wh
)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Source: Nord Pool Spot
Nordic year forwards
22
Source: NASDAQ OMX Commodities Europe
€/MWh
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Q1
30 January 2013
2007
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2008
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2009
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2010
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2011
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2012
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2013
Year 15 Year 17 Year 09 Year 10 Year 11 Year 12 Year 13 Year 14 Year 16 Year 18
Wholesale price for electricity
23
Source: Nord Pool Spot, NASDAQ OMX Commodities Europe
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
EUR/MWh Nord Pool System Price Forwards
31 January 2013
Wholesale prices for electricity
24
Source: Nord Pool Spot, NASDAQ OMX Commodities Europe, EEX, APX-ENDEX, Bloomberg Finance LP, ATS, Fortum
Dutch
German
Nordic
Russian*
* Including weighted average capacity price
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
0
Spot prices Forward prices EUR/MWh
29 January 2013
25
Fuel and CO2 allowance prices
Source: ICE
Market prices 31 January 2013; 2013-2014 future quotations
020406080
100120140160
US
D /
bb
l
Crude oil price (ICE Brent)
2006 2007 20102008 2009 20122011 2013 20140
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
EU
R /
tC
O2
CO2 price (ICE ECX EUA)
2006 2007 20102008 2009 20122011 2013 2014
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
US
D /
t
Coal price (ICE Rotterdam)
2006 2007 20102008 2009 20122011 2013 20140
20
40
60
80
100
GB
p /
th
erm
Gas price (ICE NBP)
2006 2007 20102008 2009 20122011 2013 2014
EU carbon market extremely sensitive to politics
• The ETS market is currently very nervous and overreacts to all political messages:
– Jan 24: Price collapsed temporarily to an all-time intraday low of €2.81/t after EP ITRE negative vote on ETS Directive, and then increased back to slightly above €4/t
– Jan 18: German auction cancelled due to low demand
• Majority of member states don’t have a final position on “backloading”;
– UK conditionally supportive,
– Germany the key question mark – elections interfering its decision making
• Next milestones in 2013:
– 19 February vote on ETS Directive in ENVI committee in EP
– February-April: Final decision of the Parliament.
– March-May: Member States vote on backloading
– July-September: implementation of backloading earliest
• During the existing Commission’s mandate only backloading and set-aside feasible – no time for broader structural revisions.
26
ITRE: Industry Committee (giving an opinion to the ENVI Committee on ETS Directive changes)
ENVI: Environment Committee (preparing a proposal to the EP Plenary deciding the Parliament’s position)
EP: European Parliament
Nordic power generation – dominated by hydro, but fossil needed
27
Source: ENTSO-E Memo 2011 *) Normal annual Nordic hydro generation 200 TWh, variation +/- 40 TWh.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Denmark Norway Sweden Finland
Fossil fuels
Nuclear
Biomass
Wind
Hydro *
TWh/a
Total Nordic generation
378 TWh in 2011
Net import in 2011: 3 TWh
24
80
TWh %
57
200
17
6
21
15
53
5
Still a highly fragmented Nordic power market
28
Source: Fortum, company data, shares of the largest actors, pro forma 2010 figures.
Power generation
378 TWh
>350 companies
Electricity distribution
15 million customers
~500 companies
Electricity retail
15 million customers
~350 companies
32%
Fortum
Vattenfall
Dong Energy
Others
Statkraft
E.ON PVO
E-CO Energi
Helsinki
Norsk Hydro BKK
Others
52%
E.ON
Vattenfall
Fortum
Dong Energy
Göteborg
SEAS-NVE
Hafslund
Helsinki
Statkraft
Bixia
Fortum
Vattenfall
Others
E.ON
54%
SEAS-NVE
Hafslund
Helsinki
Göteborg
Syd Energi
Dong Energy
Elenia
New capacity needed for increasing demand and retiring capacity replacements
• Growing global energy demand
will be increasingly fulfilled by
electricity in the future
• Substantial demand growth in
the emerging markets
• Retirements and moderate
demand growth in the EU
• Globally, 5,900 GW of new
capacity needed by 2035
29
1) Total new capacity needed for increasing demand and retiring capacity replacements Source: IEA WEO 2012 (New polices scenario)
384
606
548
923
153
245
190
1,487
70
666
631
1,964
1,976
5,891 New capacity,
total (1
Capacity changes, 2012-2035 (GW)
Retiring capacity
US Europe Russia China India Other
areas
World
total
0 %
50 %
100 %
150 %
200 %
250 %
~20%
~ 40%
~130%
~240%
Growth, 2010-2035
Primary energy demand
Electricity generation
New capacity, except nuclear, will require over 60 EUR/MWh power price
30
Gas Nuclear Hydro Wind Clean coal
EUR/MWh
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Estimated lifetime average cost in nominal 2014 terms.
Large variations in cost of new hydro and wind due to location and conditions.
Other costs ( variation)
CO2 cost
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Coal
Source: Nord Pool spot, NASDAQ OMX Commodities Europe
EUR/MWh
Futures
31 January 2013
1995 -97 -99 -01 -05 -07 -09 -11 -13 -03 -15 -17
Fortum’s investment programme – Nordic region, Poland and Baltic countries
Additional electricity capacity around 950 MW
100% CO2-free
Project Electricity, MW Heat, MW Commissioned
Olkiluoto 3, Finland 400
Swedish nuclear upgrades 290
Refurbishing of hydro power 10 annually
Brista, Sweden 20 57 Q4 2013 (waste CHP)
Klaipeda, Lithuania 20 60 Q1 2013 (waste CHP)
Total ~950 ~500
Jelgava, Latvia 23 45 Q3 2013 (biomass CHP)
Järvenpää, Finland 23 63 Q2 2013 (biomass CHP)
Värtan, Sweden 130 280 2016 (biomass CHP)
31
Blaiken, Sweden, wind power 30
Overview of Fortum’s nuclear fleet
32
LOVIISA OLKILUOTO OSKARSHAMN FORSMARK
Commercial operation started
Unit 1: 1977
Unit 2: 1981
Unit 1: 1978
Unit 2: 1980
Unit 3: (Under construction)
Unit 1: 1972
Unit 2: 1974
Unit 3: 1985
Unit 1: 1980
Unit 2: 1981
Unit 3: 1985
Generation Capacity
Fortum’s share
Unit 1: 496 MW
Unit 2: 496 MW
Total: 992 MW
Unit 1: 880 MW
Unit 2: 880 MW
(Unit 3: 1,600 MW)
Total: 1,760 MW (3,360)
27% 468 MW
Unit 1: 473 MW
Unit 2: 638 MW
Unit 3: 1,400 MW
Total: 2,511 MW
43% 1,089 MW
Unit 1: 984 MW
Unit 2: 996 MW
Unit 3: 1,170 MW
Total: 3,150 MW
22% 699 MW
Yearly production
Fortum’s share of production
8 TWh
8 TWh
14 TWh
4 TWh
17 TWh
7 TWh
25 TWh
5.5 TWh
Share of Fortums Nordic production
18% 9% 16% 13%
Majority owner
Fortum’s share
Fortum
Pohjolan Voima
26.6%
E.ON
43.4%
Vattenfall
22.2%
Operated by Fortum Teollisuuden Voima (TVO)
OKG Aktiebolag Forsmarks Kraftgrupp
Responsibilities Loviisa: Fortum is the owner, licensee and operator with all the responsibilities specified in the Nuclear Energy Act, Nuclear Liability Act, and other relevant nuclear legislation
Other units: Fortum is solely an owner with none of the responsibilities assigned to the licensee in the nuclear legislation. Other responsibilities are specified in the
Companies Act and the Articles of Association and are mostly financial.
Olkiluoto
Loviisa Forsmark
Oskarshamn
Fortum's nuclear power in the Nordics
33
• Finnish units world class in availability
• Overview of production and consumption: www.fortum.com/investors - energy related links
Source: Fortum
Variety of technologies and ages
34
PWR = Pressurized Water Reactor The most common reactor type in the world (e.g. all French units, most US units). Also the Loviisa units are PWRs, but based on Russian design.
High pressure prevents water from boiling n the reactor. The steam rotating the turbine is generated in separate steam generators.
BWR = Boiling Water Reactor Similar to the PWR in many ways, but the steam is generated directly in the reactor. Popular reactor type e.g. in Sweden, the US and Japan.
*Generation refers to technical resemblence based on KSU classification and not to reactor design generations. All reactors are of Generation II except Olkiluoto-3 (EPR) which is of Generation III.
Unit Mwe (Net) Share (%) Share (Mwe) Commercial
operation
Age Type/
Generation *
Supplier
Loviisa 1
Loviisa 2
496
496
100,0
100,0
496
496
1977-05-09
1981-01-05
34
30
PWR / 1
PWR / 1
AEE (Atomenergoexport)
AEE (Atomenergoexport)
Olkiluoto 1
Olkiluoto 2
Olkiluoto 3
880
880
(1,600)
26,6
26,6
25,0
234
234
(400)
1979-10-10
1982-07-10
(?)
32
29
BWR / 3
BWR / 3
PWR / 3
Asea-Atom / Stal-Laval
Asea-Atom / Stal-Laval
Areva / Siemens
Oskarshamn 1
Oskarshamn 2
Oskarshamn 3
473
638
1,400
43,4
43,4
43,4
205
277
607
1972-02-06
1975-01-01
1985-08-15
39
36
26
BWR / 1
BWR / 2
BWR / 4
Asea-Atom / Stal-Laval
Asea-Atom / Stal-Laval
Asea-Atom / Stal-Laval
Forsmark 1
Forsmark 2
Forsmark 3
984
996
1,170
23,4
23,4
20,1
230
233
236
1980-12-10
1981-07-07
1985-08-18
31
30
26
BWR / 3
BWR / 3
BWR / 4
Asea-Atom / Stal-Laval
Asea-Atom / Stal-Laval
Asea-Atom / Stal-Laval
Third party nuclear liability in case of severe accident
35
Sweden
(new, not
in force)
Finland,
temporary
legislation
Current,
Sweden
700 M€
200 M€ 360 M€
500 M€ Responsibility of company
(insurance or guarantee)
Unlimited
company
responsibility
Convention
parties 300 M€
State
responsibility
300 M€
500 M€
700 M€
New Paris
convention
700 M€
145 M€
145 M€
Old,
Finland
240 M€
145 M€
Has been approved by the Parliament.
In force 1.1.2012 onwards.
Law approved by Parliament in
2010, requires separate decision
from Government to come into
force.
Requires ratification by 2/3
of member states to come
into force. In Finland
approved by Parliament in
2005
Nuclear upgrades in Sweden
36
Reactor
OKG 1
Completion
-
Increase 100% (MW)
0
Fortum's capacity increase
(MW)
Additional generation for Fortum
(TWh/a)
Fortum's capacity
after increase
(MW)
Fortum's generation
after increase
(TWh/a)
- 205 ~2
OKG 2 2009, 2015 30 + 180 95 355 ~3
OKG 3 2011 255 110 607 ~5
FKA 1 Decision 2013 120 ~25 257 ~2
FKA 2 2013 120 25 259 ~2
FKA 3 Decision 2013 170 ~35 270 ~2
Total ~290 ~2 ~1,950* ~15
Capacity increase and completion timetable based on recent estimate (Nord Pool). At 31.12.2012
* Fortum's share of Swedish nuclear capacity was 1,787 MW.
Russia
37
Fortum today, pages 4 -16
European and Nordic power markets, pages 18 - 29
Data on Fortum’s nuclear fleet, pages 30 - 36
Russia, pages 38 - 45
Data on capacity payments, pages 40 - 42
Fortum’s investment programme, page 45
Financials and outlook, pages 47 – 54
Hedges, pages 53 - 54
Russia is the World’s 4th largest power market
38
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
TWh
5,000
Power generation in 2011 based on gross output.
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2012
Fortum - a major player in Russia
OAO Fortum (former TGC-10)
• Operates in the heart of Russia’s oil and gas producing region,
fleet mainly gas-fired CHP capacity
• 23,3 TWh power generation, 26,4 TWh heat production in 2012;
more than Fortum’s Nordic heat sales (19,7 TWh)
• Investment programme to add 85%, almost 2,400 MW to power
generation capacity
• Annual efficiency improvement reached
EUR 100 million in Q2 2011 (compared to 2008 level)
TGC-1
• Slightly over 25% of territorial generating company TGC-1
operating in north-west Russia
• ~6,400 MW electricity production capacity (appr. 50% hydro),
~26 TWh/a electricity, ~30 TWh/a heat
39
OAO Fortum
Tyumen
Tobolsk
Chelyabinsk
Nyagan
TGC-1
St. Petersburg
Moscow
40
Day ahead wholesale market prices – increase driven by recovering demand and gas price
2
Key electricity, capacity and gas prices in the OAO Fortum area
IV/12 IV/11 2012 2011
Electricity spot price
(market price), Urals hub,
RUB/MWh
973 858 956 925
Average regulated gas
price, Urals region, RUB
1000 m3
2,924 2,548 2,736 2,548
Average capacity price
for CCS ”old capacity”,
tRUB/MW/month
168 174 152 160
Average capacity price
for CSA ”new capacity”,
tRUB/MW/month
627 534 539 560
Average capacity price,
tRUB/MW/month
254 246 227 209
Achieved power price for
OAO Fortum, EUR/MWh 30.9 28.9 30.6 29.2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
€/ M
Wh
Day ahead power market prices for Urals
In addition to the power price generators receive a capacity payment.
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: ATS
2013
Power market liberalisation – two markets
41
Capacity wholesale market Electricity wholesale market
Capacity prices
• Competitive capacity selection (CCS) and free bilateral
agreements (FBA)
• A higher, fixed capacity price for new
capacity (CSA* agreements, built after 2007)
• Lower capacity price for old capacity, price caps limits the price in
some areas
• Old capacity intended for households are priced by regulated
bilateral agreements (RBA)
Electricity prices
• Day ahead (spot) market, financial market, free bilateral
agreements (FBA) and regulated bilateral agreements (RBA)
• Fully liberalised from 1 Jan 2011 except for volumes intended for
households priced by RBA (~10% of volume)
* Capacity supply agreement
•CSA is the intended mechanism for earning a (reasonable) return on invested capital in new capacity
•Capacity prices are a big part of a power generator’s income
– a typical CHP plant ~35%, CCGT ~55%, of revenues
•In the day ahead (spot) market, the price mechanism is a day ahead hourly auction. Supply – demand balance and
variable cost (fuel) are the key drivers for the spot price
•Financial market for electricity started in June, 2010
42
Capacity prices for new capacity considerably higher than prices for old capacity prices
• Long term rules and price parameters approved
• Both “old” and “new” capacity can participate in capacity auctions
• Old capacity (pre 2007) and new capacity priced differently – Old capacity is priced by capacity auctions; price cap possibility
– New capacity under capacity supply agreements to receive guaranteed payments
• The payments for new capacity are based on approved pricing formulas – Vary according to plant size, fuel, geographic location, capital costs
– Allow the recovery of capital costs and include return on invested capital; the targeted ROCE level 12-14% (with current government benchmark bond yields)
– After three years (2014), the regulator will review the earnings from the electricity-only market and can revise the payments, same goes after 6 years.
• “Old” capacity prices will depend on auction outcomes, but will likely
remain relatively low; potentially price caps could limit the price
Long-term financial target will be dictated by basic economic logic
43
Assuming, having completed the investment programme, an invested capital of
~EUR 100 million improvement in
EBITDA through the efficiency
improvement programme
Invested capital
EUR
~2.5 bn
~4 bn
2011 ~2014
In 2009, WACC for Russia was ~12%
a
b
a
… and an unchanged
cost of capital b
The annual comparable
operating profit in Russia
needs to be ~EUR 500
million in order to beat the
cost of capital (WACC) after
the completion of the
investment programme
Key factors behind the profitability improvement in Russia
44
Efficiency improvement programme 2008-2011
– Increasing heat production profitability
– Fuel efficiency improvement
– Cost savings
New CSA capacity commissioning 2011-2014
– Additional capacity 2,388 MW; +85%
– Capacity is sold at CSA (Capacity Supply
Agreement) contracts with guaranteed higher
price
Pace of new capacity increase of Fortum investment programme in Russia
2011 - 638 MW
2012 - 0 MW
2013 - 1,254 MW
2014 - 496 MW
Total - 2,388 MW
85% increase in power generation capacity by the end of 2014 through the investment programme
45
85% increase in power generation capacity in Russia by the
end of 2014 through the investment programme
Total 2,785 2,388 5,173
Plant Fuel type Existing (MW) Planned (MW) Total
Tyumen CHP-2 Gas 755 755
Tyumen CHP-1 Gas 472 209 681
Tobolsk CHP Gas 452 213 665
Chelyabinsk CHP-3 Gas 360 216 576
Chelyabinsk CHP-2 Gas, coal 320 320
Argayash CHP Gas, coal 195 195
Chelyabinsk CHP-1 Gas, coal 149 149
Chelyabinsk GRES Gas 82 578
Nyagan GRES Gas 3 x 418 1,254
Boilers -
(CHP/Condensing)
(CHP/Condensing)
(Condensing)
(Condensing)
Supply date
2013
June/2011
Feb/2011; 2014
Oct/2011
2014 2 x 248 (CHP/Condensing)
Represents over 50%
of new capacity
Financials and outlook
46
Fortum today, pages 4 -16
European and Nordic power markets, pages 18 - 29
Data on Fortum’s nuclear fleet, pages 32 - 36
Russia, pages 38 - 45
Data on capacity payments, pages 40 - 42
Fortum’s investment programme, page 45
Financials and outlook, pages 47 – 54
Hedges, pages 53 - 54
Income statement
47
MEUR IV/2012 IV/2011 2012 2011
Sales 1,834 1,667 6,159 6,161
Expenses -1,247 -1,159 -4,420 -4,359
Comparable operating profit 587 508 1,739 1,802
Items affecting comparability 32 71 122 600
Operating profit 619 579 1,861 2,402
Share of profit of associates and jv's -5 19 21 91
Financial expenses, net -76 -66 -307 -265
Profit before taxes 538 532 1,575 2,228
Income tax expense 123 -88 -72 -366
Net profit for the period 661 444 1,503 1,862
Non-controlling interests 58 23 94 93
EPS, basic (EUR) 0.68 0.47 1.59 1.99
EPS, diluted (EUR) 0.68 0.47 1.59 1.99
Comparable and reported operating profit
48
MEUR
IV/2012 IV/2011 IV/2012 IV/2011 2012 2011 2012 2011
Power 380 351 387 443 1,144 1,201 1,173 1,476
Heat 93 96 118 100 266 278 339 380
Russia 28 35 28 35 68 74 79 74
Distribution 101 49 103 41 317 295 328 478
Electricity Sales 9 2 5 -6 38 27 38 3
Other -24 -25 -22 -34 -94 -73 -96 -9
Total 587 508 619 579 1,739 1,802 1,861 2,402
Comparable operating
profit
Reported operating
profit
Comparable operating
profit
Reported operating
profit
• Non-recurring items, IFRS accounting treatment (IAS 39) of derivatives and nuclear fund adjustments had an impact on the reported operating profit EUR 32 (71) million in the fourth quarter, and EUR 122 (600) million in 2012.
Cash flow statement
49
MEUR IV/2012 IV/2011 2012 2011
Operating profit before depreciations 794 734 2,525 3,008
Non-cash flow items and divesting activities -31 -126 -181 -726
Financial items and fx gains/losses -87 -86 -522 -376
Taxes -17 -32 -269 -394
Funds from operations (FFO) 659 490 1,553 1,512
Change in working capital -260 -18 -171 101
Total net cash from operating activities 399 472 1,382 1,613
Paid capital expenditures -503 -421 -1,422 -1,285
Acquisition of shares -11 -18 -14 -62
Other investing activities 24 -38 308 522
Cash flow before financing activities -91 -5 254 788
Key ratios
50
Good liquidity – committed credit lines total EUR 2.7 billion
MEUR 2012 2011 2010
EBITDA 2,525 3,008 2,271
Comparable EBITDA 2,403 2,374 2,396
Interest-bearing net debt 7,814 7,023 6,826
Comparable Net debt/EBITDA 3.3 3.0 2.8
Return on capital employed (%) 10.0 14.8 11.6
Return on shareholders' equity (%) 14.3 19.7 15.7
Debt Maturity Profile
51
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023+
Bonds Financial institutions Other long-term debt CPs Other short-term debt
MEUR
2013 1,078
2014 1,282
2015 1,117
2016 871
2017 604
2018 199
2019 871
2020 75
2021 596
2022 1,004
2023+
TOTAL
1,080
8,777
per 31 Dec, 2012 per 31 Dec, 2011
Average Interest Rate (incl. swaps and forwards) 4.5% 4.4%
Portion of floating / fixed debt 45/55% 47/53%
Outlook
• Nordic markets
– Annual electricity demand growth estimated to be on average 0.5%
– Electricity continues to gain share of total energy consumption
• Russia
– Fortum’s goal is to achieve an operating profit level of about EUR 500 million and to create positive economic value added after completing the on-going investment programme
• Key drivers and risks
– Wholesale price of electricity and volumes
• Demand and supply • Fuels
• Hydrological situation • Power plant availability
• CO2 emissions allowance prices
52
Outlook
• Annual capex excluding potential acquisitions
– 2013 EUR 1.1 to 1.4 billion
– 2014 EUR 0.9 to 1.1 billion
• Hedging
– 2013 approximately 70% hedge ratio at approximately EUR 45/MWh
(Q3: 60% at EUR 45/MWh)
– 2014 approximately 35% hedge ratio at approximately EUR 43/MWh
(Q3: 30% at EUR 43/MWh)
• Target for efficiency programme is to improve cash flow by EUR 1 billion during 2013-2014
• Effective tax rate for the Group 19-21%
53
54
Hedging improves stability and predictability
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
EUR/MWh
Realised prices quarterly since 2000
Achieved power price Spot price, SE&FI avg.
2009 onwards thermal and import from Russia excluded
Efficiency programme launched to maintain and strengthen the strategic flexibility and competitiveness
55
"The core of our activities is to fulfill our strategy of long-term
business operations, the aim of which is to strengthen our Nordic
core business, create solid earnings growth in Russia and build a
platform for future growth"
Fortum's efficiency programme 2013-2014
56
SPEED - Cash flow improved by EUR 1 billion - FLEXIBILITY
CAPEX EUR 250-350 million
DIVESTMENTS EUR 500 million
WORKING CAPITAL
Reduction
FIXED COSTS
Reduce EUR 150 million compared to 2012
WHY WHAT WHEN
2013-2014
• Efficiency programme proceeding according to plan
• Integrated into division plans for 2013-2014
• Net cash impact EUR 50 million in 2012
• Minor cost reductions already achieved
57
Fortum has decided to assess the future alternatives, including
divestment, of its electricity distribution business
In accordance with its strategy, Fortum seeks growth in low-carbon power
generation, energy-efficient combined heat and power (CHP) production
and customer offerings
The Board’s decision regarding Fortum’s electricity distribution business
Fortum Distribution’s Nordic network
Nordic countries Customers: 1,6 million
Distributed electricity: 43,954 GWh
Length of network: 156,000km
Nr of employees: ~ 900
Sales:1,070
Comparable operating profit: 317
Comparable EBITDA: 526
Net assets: 3,911
Sweden Customers: 900,000
Distributed electricity:
28,925 GWh
Norway Customers: 102,000
Distributed electricity:
2,405 GWh
Finland Customers: 633,000
Distributed electricity:
12,624 GWh