42
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India: Where Do They Originate From? Ramkishen S. Rajan * and Sasidaran Gopalan ** * George Mason University (GMU) and National University of Singapore (NUS) ** The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST)

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India: Where Do They … Presentation_Rajan and Gopalan … ·  · 2018-01-04Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India: Where Do They Originate

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Page 1: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India: Where Do They … Presentation_Rajan and Gopalan … ·  · 2018-01-04Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India: Where Do They Originate

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India:

Where Do They Originate From?

Ramkishen S. Rajan* and Sasidaran Gopalan**

* George Mason University (GMU) and National University of Singapore (NUS)

** The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST)

Page 2: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India: Where Do They … Presentation_Rajan and Gopalan … ·  · 2018-01-04Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India: Where Do They Originate

Structure

1. Preliminaries and Definitions

2. Trends in Global FDI Inflows

3. FDI Inflows to India

4. Reassessing Bilateral FDI Inflows to India

5. Reconciling FDI and M&A Data

6. Conclusions

2

Page 3: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India: Where Do They … Presentation_Rajan and Gopalan … ·  · 2018-01-04Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India: Where Do They Originate

New foreign equity flows (either Mergers & Acquisitions (M&As)

of existing local enterprises or Greenfield investments). – 10%

threshold. Less than 10% regarded as foreign portfolio investment (FPI).

M&A versus Brownfield.

Intra-company debt transactions.

Reinvested earnings.

Refers to a source of external financing rather than net

physical investment or real activity.

At an operational level FDI consists of three broad

aspects:

3

1. Preliminaries and Definitions

Page 4: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India: Where Do They … Presentation_Rajan and Gopalan … ·  · 2018-01-04Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India: Where Do They Originate

Global FDI inflows reached the pre-global financial crisis (GFC) average in 2013.

Rapid growth share of FDI flows to developing economies since the early 2000s

and in 2012-2013 they overtook developed economies.

4

Source: UNCTAD WIR

Global FDI Inflows 1992-2013 (US$ Billions)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Developed Economies Developing Economies Transition Economies World

2. Trends in Global FDI Flows

Page 5: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India: Where Do They … Presentation_Rajan and Gopalan … ·  · 2018-01-04Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India: Where Do They Originate

Developed economies received about 70% of global FDI inflows on average till

2000 and since then on downward trend reaching 40% in 2013.

Share of FDI inflows to developing and transition economies tripled from about

20% in 2000 to 60% in 2013.

5

Source: UNCTAD WIR

FDI Inflows by Category 1992-2013 (% Share in Global FDI Flows)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Developed Economies Developing Economies Transition Economies

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6

Top 20 Host Economies for FDI Flows, 2012-2013

(US$ Billions)

9 of the 20 largest recipients were

developing countries with BRIC

economies figuring in the list.

Tax havens and Offshore Financial

Centers (OFCs) are also among top host

economies of FDI flows.

Source: UNCTAD WIR (2014)

Page 7: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India: Where Do They … Presentation_Rajan and Gopalan … ·  · 2018-01-04Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India: Where Do They Originate

Components of FDI: Reinvested Earnings

7

Share of Inward FDI Flows Financed Through Reinvested Earnings,

By Region, 2005-2011 (Percent)

Source: UNCTAD WIR (2013)

Retained earnings component of FDI rising since GFC especially for developing

economies – two-fifths of total FDI.

Country-specific data not easily available.

Page 8: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India: Where Do They … Presentation_Rajan and Gopalan … ·  · 2018-01-04Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India: Where Do They Originate

Rising importance of

M&As in FDI flows

globally at least till the

GFC.

Increasing ratio of M&A-

to-FDI in two notable

phases: 1992-2000 and

then again from 2004-2008

broadly.

M&A picking up again

post 2013.

8

Source: UNCTAD WIR (2014)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

World M&A World Greenfield World FDI Inflows

Trends in Type of FDI Projects, 2003-13 (US$ Billions)

Note: Greenfield is value of announced projects; M&A is value of cross-border deals

Ratio of M&A to FDI: 1992-2013

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

Ratio of M&A to FDI

Components of FDI: M&A versus Greenfield

Page 9: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India: Where Do They … Presentation_Rajan and Gopalan … ·  · 2018-01-04Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India: Where Do They Originate

Caveat: Macroeconomic Implications of FDI

9

KAB = -CAB = (I - S) + (G -T)

Greenfield I rises, CAB worsens and net capital inflows.

M&A: I rises, CAB worsens and net capital inflows.

S falls, CAB worsens and net capital inflows.

No change in I or S, CAB same, no net capital inflows.

“Over 96% of FDI ..(in pharma).. during this period has been in brownfield

investment, thereby merely a substitution of domestic capital by foreign capital rather than

being an addition.” (Internal DIPP note based on Hindu Business Line, 2013)*

Macroeconomic implications of M&A not as obvious as Greenfield

investments.

(Note: Excludes secondary effects on Y and T).

* Source: “DIPP Seeks to Restrict FDI in Brownfield Pharma Projects,” The Hindu Business Line, September 11, 2013.

Page 10: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India: Where Do They … Presentation_Rajan and Gopalan … ·  · 2018-01-04Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India: Where Do They Originate

FDI flows to both developed and developing countries have been concentrated in the

services sector.

55% of FDI inflows to services sector go to finance and business activities in developed

economies; Corresponding share for developing economies is about 35%.

Developing economies: Of the 27% FDI flows to manufacturing sector in

developing economies, unspecified industries take up 18%, including pharmaceuticals.

Sectoral Trends

10

Source: UNCTAD WIR (2014)

Primary, 7.5%

Manufacturing, 17%

Services, 71%

Sectoral Share of Global Inward FDI Flows in Developed Economies (2010-2012) Sectoral Share of Global Inward FDI Flows in Developing Economies (2010-12)

Primary, 12%

Manufacturing, 27%

Services, 59%

Page 11: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India: Where Do They … Presentation_Rajan and Gopalan … ·  · 2018-01-04Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India: Where Do They Originate

3. FDI Inflows to India

11

Source: UNCTAD WIR (2014)

Trends in India’s FDI Inflows , 1992-2013

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

India (US$ Billion; LHS) India (% Share of World FDI Inflows; RHS)

Rising importance of FDI Flows since early 2000s with inflows highest before the GFC.

Share in world FDI flows peaked at 3% in 2009, averaging 1.5% over 2001 and 2013.

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12

FDI Inflows to India (% Share of GDP)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

World FDI Inflows (% of World GDP)

India FDI Inflows (% of India's GDP)

FDI inflows to India as a share of GDP peaked at 4% in 2008.

2008-09 only time India’s FDI-to-GDP share higher than world average.

On average, FDI inflows as share of GDP to India between 2008 and 2013 higher

than corresponding share between 2001 and 2008.

Source: UNCTAD and World Bank

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13

FDI Inflows (% Share of GDP)

Source: UNCTAD and World Bank

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Singapore (RHS) China (LHS) India (LHS)

With China’s consistently declining share of FDI-to-GDP, India slightly higher

ratio since 2013 (happened in 2008 but reason quite different then).

Page 14: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India: Where Do They … Presentation_Rajan and Gopalan … ·  · 2018-01-04Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India: Where Do They Originate

FDI Inflows to India

Value of announced Greenfield FDI projects in India in 2012-2014 back to

2003-2004 levels.

Concerning decline in 2013 in absolute value and in global share.

14

Source: UNCTAD WIR (2013)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Value of Greenfield FDI (US$ Billion; LHS) % Share of World Greenfield FDI (RHS)

Page 15: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India: Where Do They … Presentation_Rajan and Gopalan … ·  · 2018-01-04Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India: Where Do They Originate

UNCTAD reports bilateral FDI data with an informative

geographic breakdown, but ….

Nature of FDI data reported is misleading

15

4. Reassessing Bilateral FDI Inflows to India

Assessing de facto real linkages between countries harder when data is

based on flow of funds than ultimate ownership.

Page 16: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India: Where Do They … Presentation_Rajan and Gopalan … ·  · 2018-01-04Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India: Where Do They Originate

OFCs and Tax Havens

OECD (2000): Tax haven is a jurisdiction which has: “no or only nominal taxes

(generally or in special circumstances) and offers itself or is perceived offer itself, as a place

to be used by non residents to escape tax in their country of residents; laws or

administrative practices which prevent the effective exchange of information lack of

transparency and the absence of requirement that the activity be substantial.”

16

OFCs, tax havens and special purpose entities (SPEs) playing a significant

role in global FDI flows -- Round-tripping and Trans-shipping.

IMF Financial Stability Forum (2000): “…jurisdictions that attract a high level of

non-resident activity. Traditionally, the term OFC has implied some or all of the

following (but not all OFCs) operate this way: Low or no taxes on business or investment

income; no withholding taxes; light and flexible incorporation and licensing regimes; light

and flexible supervisory regimes; flexible use of trusts and other special corporate vehicles;

no need for financial institutions and/or corporate structures to have a physical presence;

an inappropriately high level of client confidentiality based on impenetrable secrecy laws;

unavailability of similar incentives to residents.”

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17

OFCs and Tax Havens

OECD (2000): 41 Tax

Havens*

Andorra; Anguilla; Antigua and Barbuda; Aruba; Bahamas; Bahrain; Belize;

Bermuda; British Virgin Islands; Cayman Islands; Cook Islands; Cyprus;

Dominica; Gibraltar; Grenada; Guernsey, Sark and Alderney; Isle of Man;

Jersey; Liberia; Liechtenstein; Malta; Marshall Islands; Mauritius; Monaco;

Montserrat; Nauru; Netherlands Antilles; Niue; Panama; Saint Kitts &

Nevis; Saint Lucia; Saint Vincent and the Grenadines; Samoa; San Marino;

Seychelles; Turks and Caicos Islands; US Virgin Islands; Vanuatu.

IMF FSF (2000): 46 OFCs

Also listed in IMF (2006): “OFC

Assessment Program – A Progress

Report”

Bahrain; Belize; Bermuda; Cayman Islands; Cyprus; Gibraltar; Guernsey;

Isle of Man; Jersey; Macao SAR; Mauritius; Monaco; Montserrat; Samoa;

Seychelles; Singapore; Andorra; Anguilla; Antigua and Barbuda; Bahamas;

Barbados; British Virgin Islands; Cook Islands; Costa Rica; Dominica;

Liechtenstein; Netherlands Antilles; Niue; Palau; Panama; Saint Kitts and

Nevis; Saint Lucia; Saint Vincent and the Grenadines; Vanuatu; Aruba;

Grenada; Lebanon; Malaysia (Labuan); Marshall Islands; Nauru; Turks

and Caicos Islands; Hong Kong SAR; Ireland; Luxembourg; Malta;

Switzerland.

Notes: * We list only OECD non-member countries; UNCTAD WIR uses OECD classification

Page 18: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India: Where Do They … Presentation_Rajan and Gopalan … ·  · 2018-01-04Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India: Where Do They Originate

OFCs and FDI Flows

Rising importance of OFCs

in FDI flows.

Investments to OFCs

remain at historically high

levels.

Flows to OFCs have

boomed since 2007,

following the start of the

GFC.

18

Source: UNCTAD WIR (2013)

Note Hong Kong and Singapore are classified as OFCs as per the IMF definition but excluded by the

OECD list of tax haven jurisdictions. Netherlands is considered as a potentially harmful preferential tax

regime by the OECD but the IMF list does not list that as an OFC.

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19

Paucity of studies tracking the actual ownership of FDI inflows to

understand the de facto real linkages at a bilateral level.

We examine trends in bilateral FDI inflows into BRIC economies

from 2001-12.

Focus here on India.

We propose an alternative framework by examining M&As which

could be more meaningful, caveats notwithstanding.

Main Sources of data:

Bilateral FDI: UNCTAD FDI/TNC Database (Latest year available: 2012).

Bilateral M&As: Dealogic (Latest year available: 2014).

Focus of Interest

Page 20: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India: Where Do They … Presentation_Rajan and Gopalan … ·  · 2018-01-04Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India: Where Do They Originate

FDI Inflows to India (Average between 2001 and 2012)

Case Study: India

20

Source of FDI inflows: Tax havens

and OFCs constitute over half of FDI

inflows on average over the last decade.

Of limited use in trying to understand

India’s extent of bilateral linkages.

Netherlands,6%

United Kingdom, 7

%

United States, 10%

Japan, 5%

Tax Havens, 43

%

Other Countries, 1

5%

Singapore, 8%

Cyprus, 5%

Mauritius, 95%

Within the tax havens close to 95% of

inflows originate from Mauritius

Breakdown of Tax Havens

Page 21: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India: Where Do They … Presentation_Rajan and Gopalan … ·  · 2018-01-04Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India: Where Do They Originate

Inconsistent data on FDI Inflows to India from various sources-- absolute

values of total FDI inflows do not match.

Case Study: India

21

Total World FDI Inflows to India

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13

DIPP (US$ Million) 27331 25834 21383 35121 22423

UNCTAD Bilateral FDI database (US$ Million) 22697 22461 14937 23474 18286

UNCTAD Country Factsheet (US$ Million) 47138.7 35657.3 27431.2 36190.4 24195.8

EIU WIS (US$ Million) 43830.4 35938.1 26773.2 34598.2 24249.6

Page 22: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India: Where Do They … Presentation_Rajan and Gopalan … ·  · 2018-01-04Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India: Where Do They Originate

However shares of source countries of FDI inflows into India broadly match between

UNCTAD (bilateral database) and DIPP.

Case Study: India

22

Mauritius, 37%

Singapore, 11%

UK, 9%

Japan, 6%

USA, 5%

Netherlands, 5%

Mauritius, 42%

Singapore, 12%

UK, 5%

Japan, 5.50%

USA, 6%

Netherlands, 6%

DIPP: FDI Inflows to India by Source Country Share (Average 2007-12) UNCTAD: FDI Inflows to India by Source Country Share (Average 2007-12)

Source: DIPP Source: UNCTAD

Page 23: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India: Where Do They … Presentation_Rajan and Gopalan … ·  · 2018-01-04Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India: Where Do They Originate

In 2013-14, Singapore overtook Mauritius as the leading source of FDI inflows to India

Case Study: India

23

Source: DIPP - FDI Inflows to India by Source Country Share (2012-13) Source: DIPP - FDI Inflows to India by Source Country Share (2013-14)

Mauritius, 42%

Singapore, 10%

UK, 5%

Japan, 10%

USA, 2.5%Netherlands, 9

%Mauritius, 20%

Singapore, 25%

UK, 13%

Japan, 7%

USA, 3.0%

Netherlands, 9%

Indian companies using OFCs (Singapore and Netherlands) and tax havens (Mauritius)

as intermediaries to purchase assets overseas or back in India.

Example: Tata Steel financed the Corus acquisition partly via consortium of banks at Tata

Steel UK as well as by its subsidiary Tata Steel Asia Singapore

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24

India-Mauritius DTAA: Mauritius does not impose taxes on capital

gains.

India-Mauritius DTAA arguably the most flexible with a “loophole” – no Limit-

of-Benefit (LOB) clause – holding companies in these tax havens could be used

to repatriate profits from India.

India-Singapore CECA: Key provision from the investment

perspective is the renewed Double Taxation Avoidance Agreement

(DTAA).

The India-Singapore DTAA is broadly modelled along the lines of the existing

Indian treaty with Mauritius -- exemptions for capital gains tax on profits from

sale of shares.

LOB clasue: Effectively an anti-abuse provision that restricts third country

residents to obtain benefits under a DTAA.

Sources of FDI Inflows into India

Page 25: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India: Where Do They … Presentation_Rajan and Gopalan … ·  · 2018-01-04Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India: Where Do They Originate

Over 2000-2012 on average, top ten sectors received just under two-fifths

FDI.

Pharma share around 4-5% of total FDI inflows into India.

Case Study: India

25

Source: DIPP

Services, 19%

Construction, 12%

Telecom, 7%

Computer and Hardware, 6%

Pharmaceuticals, 5%

Chemicals, 5%

Source: DIPP

Services, 17%

Construction, 8%

Telecom, 6%

Computer and

Hardware, 3%

Pharmaceuticals, 4%

FDI Inflows to India by Sector Share (Average: 2000-2012) FDI Inflows to India by Sector Share (Average: 2009-2013)

Page 26: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India: Where Do They … Presentation_Rajan and Gopalan … ·  · 2018-01-04Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India: Where Do They Originate

M&A data tracks the actual ownership of the purchases and sales

We use M&A data provided by Dealogic

Others: Bloomberg, Thomson Financial and Zephyr.

Data not always consistent (threshold, ownership, retained earnings, gross vs net,

etc).

To ensure a degree of comparability with the FDI data we have

only included M&As with over 10% equity.

26

5. Reconciling FDI and M&A Data

Page 27: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India: Where Do They … Presentation_Rajan and Gopalan … ·  · 2018-01-04Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India: Where Do They Originate

Ratio of BRICs M&A-to-FDI, 2001-2012

BRIC economies in general seem to have experienced an increase in the ratio of

M&A to FDI indicating its growing importance.

Ratios higher in Brazil and India than Russia and China.

27

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Brazil Russia India China

2001-06

2006-12

2001-12

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M&A Acquisitions in India

India

28

On average about 60% of total M&As involve Indian firms, i.e. domestic M&As.

Domestic M&As may happen through tax havens.

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Share of Other Countries in India's Inbound M&As

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Inward M&A Acquisitions in India (Average between 2001 and 2012) by Acquirer

India

29

US is the single largest acquirer of Indian companies (28%) followed by the UK (23%) and then

Japan, Singapore and Malaysia together constituting about 20%.

Majority of the inbound acquisitions to India have been by the US, UK while Japan and

Singapore have lower shares as compared to FDI inflows.

Acquisitions by the US and UK in particular have been channelled via Mauritius.

Sources of FDI Inflows

2001-12

Netherlands 6%

United Kingdom 7%

United States 10%

Japan 5%

Tax Havens 43%

Singapore 8%

Other Countries 15%

United Kingdom, 23%

Japan, 11%

France, 5%

United States, 28%

Germany, 4%

Malaysia, 4%

Switzerland, 4% Singapore, 4%

Source: Dealogic

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India

30

Inbound M&As in India by Sector (Average: 2010-2013)

Healthcare and Pharmaceuticals sector has seen the highest M&A share between 2010

and 2013, averaging about 18%.

From Merger Market Trend Report 2013: “Pharma, Medical & Biotech (PMB) dealmaking hit

US$ 4.2bn (38 deals)…from 2012 (US$ 1.4bn, 30 deals) with eight more deal

announcements…Represents a second consecutive annual rise by both value and

volume…PMB…the only sector to post a second successive increase in annual M&A

value or volume.

Source: Dealogic

Telecommunications, 17%

Food & Beverage, 6%

Healthcare and

Pharma, 18%

Computers & Electronics, 8%

Oil & Gas, 10%

Professional Services, 3%

Finance, 5%

Inbound M&As in India by Sector (Average: 2001-2012)

Telecommunications, 22%

Food & Beverage, 4%

Healthcare and

Pharma, 12%

Computers & Electronics, 1

2%

Oil & Gas, 9%

Professional Services, 4%

Finance, 7%

Page 31: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India: Where Do They … Presentation_Rajan and Gopalan … ·  · 2018-01-04Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India: Where Do They Originate

Inward M&A Acquisitions in Healthcare and Pharmaceuticals Sector by Non-Indian

Acquirers as a % Share of Total Inbound M&As (2001-2014)

Pharma in India

31

Pharmaceuticals, Medical and Biotech (Healthcare) deals as share of overall

M&A in India peaked in 2008 and 2010.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Healthcare

Source: Dealogic

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32

M&A into the Indian pharmaceutical sector represented about 15% of M&A in

that sector into (selected) developing economies between 2011 and 2013.

Source: UNCTAD WIR (2014)

Note: Developing countries include China, Taiwan, Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, Bangladesh, Kazakhstan, Philippines and Sri

Lanka. M&A data on developing economies from Mergermarket.

Pharma in India as a Share of Developing Countries

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2011 2012 2013

M&A in Pharma in India (Share of Developing Economies)

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M&A in Pharma

33

M&A in pharma a global

phenomenon not India specific

Driven by tax concerns in US,

follow-the-leader behaviour,

disappointment in returns from

massive R&D spending, need to

replenish drug pipelines with

upcoming patent expirations, cost

savings and synergies, low-costs

financing environment.

India -- attractive valuations, cost-

effective R&D capability, pipeline

of generic drugs.

Source: http://www.ascendant.hr/images/sector_studies/Global_Pharma_Biotech_2013.pdf

Page 34: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India: Where Do They … Presentation_Rajan and Gopalan … ·  · 2018-01-04Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India: Where Do They Originate

34

Ann. Date Bidder company Target company Seller company Bidder advisors Target/Seller advisors Deal Value (US$m)

27-Feb-13 Mylan Inc Agila Specialties Private Limited; and

Agila Specialties Asia Pte Limited

Strides Arcolab Limited FA: Morgan Stanley

LA: Barbosa, Mussnich &

Aragao; Morgan Lewis &

Bockius; Osler, Hoskin &

Harcourt; Platinum Partners;

Skadden Arps Slate Meagher &

Flom; Slaughter and May

FA: Jefferies; Moelis &

Company

LA: Borden Ladner Gervais;

DSK Legal; Haynes and

Boone; Herbert Smith

Freehills; Jones Day;

Pinheiro Neto Advogados

1,600

16-Dec-13 GlaxoSmithKline Plc GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals Ltd

(24.3% Stake)

FA: HSBC

LA: Slaughter & May

FA: -

LA: -

1,035

13-Dec-13 Torrent Pharmaceuticals Ltd Elder Pharmaceuticals Limited (Branded

Domestic Formulation Business)

Elder Pharmaceuticals Limited FA: Deloitte

LA: -

FA: Nomura Holdings

LA: Khaitan & Co

323

23-Nov-13 Pfizer Ltd Wyeth Ltd FA: Bank of America Merrill

Lynch LA: AZB & Partners

FA: Citi

LA: Advising FA: Davis Polk &

Wardwell

294

27-Nov-13 Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co LP Gland Pharma Limited Evolvence India Life Sciences

Fund

FA: Citi

LA: Amarchand & Mangaldas &

Suresh A Shroff & Co; Simpson

Thacher & Bartlett

FA: -

LA: AZB & Partners

200

30-Apr-13 Unilever NV Hindustan Unilever Limited (14.8% Stake) FA: HSBC; UBS Investment

Bank

LA: Linklaters; Talwar Thakore

& Associates

FA: Citi

LA: Advising FA: Davis Polk

& Wardwell

3,549

25-Aug-13 ONGC Videsh Limited Rovuma Offshore Area 1 Block (10%

Stake)

Anadarko Petroleum

Corporation

FA: Bank of America Merrill

Lynch

LA: Simmons & Simmons

FA: Citi

LA: -

2,640

25-Jun-13 ONGC Videsh Limited; and Oil

India Limited

Rovuma Offshore Area 1 Block (10%

Stake)

Videocon Mauritius Energy

Limited

FA: Bank of America Merrill

Lynch; Morgan Stanley

LA: Kochhar & Co; PLMJ -

Sociedade de Advogados;

Simmons & Simmons

FA: Credit Suisse; Standard

Chartered; UBS Investment

Bank

LA: Amarchand &

Mangaldas & Suresh A

Shroff & Co

2,475

24-Jul-13 Ambuja Cements Limited ACC Limited (50.01% Stake) Holcim Ltd FA: Axis Capital

LA: Amarchand & Mangaldas &

Suresh A Shroff & Co

FA: Citi

LA: Homburger

2,433

27-Feb-13 Mylan Inc Agila Specialties Private Limited; and

Agila Specialties Asia Pte Limited

Strides Arcolab Limited FA: Morgan Stanley

LA: Barbosa, Mussnich &

Aragao; Morgan Lewis &

Bockius; Osler, Hoskin &

Harcourt; Platinum Partners;

Skadden Arps Slate Meagher &

Flom; Slaughter and May

FA: Jefferies; Moelis &

Company

LA: Borden Ladner Gervais;

DSK Legal; Haynes and

Boone; Herbert Smith

Freehills; Jones Day;

Pinheiro Neto Advogados

1,600

Top Pharma, Medical & Biotech Deals Involving Indian Targets

Source: Merger Market India M&A Trend Report (2013).

Note: LA – Legal Advisor; FA – Financial Advisor

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5. Conclusion

Significant share of FDI Inflows to BRIC economies from a

combination of tax havens and regional financial centers

India – Mauritius and Singapore.

Brazil – Netherlands, British Virgin Islands and Cayman

Islands.

Russia – Cyprus, British Virgin Islands, Netherlands.

China -- Hong Kong and British Virgin Islands.

Limits usefulness of such data to understand real linkages

between countries.

35

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Conclusion

Alternatively, one can examine M&A data that tracks the actual

ownership of the purchases and sales.

Analysis reveals a far more informative geographic breakdown of

bilateral real linkages.

But some of the FDI data from OFCs and tax havens etc. is also round-

tripping back to host country which implies that they are not fully

comparable with M&A data.

Caution required in comparing the two sets of data (FDI versus

M&A) as the M&A data excludes Greenfield investments.

FDI data at a bilateral level may offer quite a misleading indication of

the extent of real linkages -- a point that researchers and analysts have

failed to adequately appreciate.

36

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Thank You!

37

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38

Ratio of Total M&A-FDI Inflows to India

Source: UNCTAD and World Bank

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

MA/FDI

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Not all FDI is M&A (as it could be Greenfield as well) and not

all M&A data are necessarily FDI in nature.

FDI data – flow of funds from country.

M&A data – Company ownership

Caveat on M&A

39

FDI > M&A Greenfield

Retained earnings

Round-tripping

FDI < M&A Actual financial flows and not total deal value at completion

Net vs. Gross

No capital lows; share swapping

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40

"The FIPB approval is currently required in mining, multi-brand

retail, public sector banking, defence (the FIPB route for FDI up to

26% and for FDI above 26% to the Cabinet Committee on

Security, clearance is needed on a case-to-case basis, where it is

likely to result in access to modern technology), brownfield pharma

projects, broadcasting, print media, existing airport projects (for

FDI above 74%), certain cases in civil aviation, satellites, single

brand retail (for FDI above 49%), and asset reconstruction

companies (FDI above 49%). Foreign investment into an Indian

company, engaged only in the activity of investing in the capital of

other Indian company/ies, will also require prior FIPB

approval, regardless of the amount or extent of foreign

investment.“

Source: http://www.financialexpress.com/article/economy/fipb-role-shrinks-amid-easier-fdi-flows/16714/

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41

Q.5. Which are the sectors where FDI is not allowed in India, both under the

Automatic Route as well as under the Government Route?

Ans. FDI is prohibited under the Government Route as well as the Automatic Route in

the following sectors:

i) Atomic Energy

ii) Lottery Business

iii) Gambling and Betting

iv) Business of Chit Fund

v) Nidhi Company

vi) Agricultural (excluding Floriculture, Horticulture, Development of seeds, Animal

Husbandry, Pisciculture and cultivation of vegetables, mushrooms, etc. under controlled

conditions and services related to agro and allied sectors) and Plantations activities (other

than Tea Plantations) (c.f. Notification No. FEMA 94/2003-RB dated June 18, 2003).

vii) Housing and Real Estate business (except development of townships, construction of

residen­tial/commercial premises, roads or bridges to the extent specified in Notification

No. FEMA 136/2005-RB dated July 19, 2005).

viii) Trading in Transferable Development Rights (TDRs).

ix) Manufacture of cigars, cheroots, cigarillos and cigarettes, of tobacco or of tobacco

substitutes.

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42

Cross-Border M&A Deals in Pharmaceuticals Targeted at

Developing and Transition Economies (2004-2013)

Transaction volumes in developing

and transition economies remain a

fraction of global cross-border M&A

activities in this industry but their

shares are expanding.

Source: UNCTAD WIR (2014)

Pharma in Developing Countries