16
SPO-ZWL758-20080325 Development of IT and ITES Offshoring – Opportunities for Countries The World Bank and International Finance Corporation – Global Information and Communications Technologies Department infoDev Donors’ Meeting 19 June 2008 This report is solely for the use of client personnel. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, or reproduced for distribution outside the client organization without prior written approval from McKinsey & Company. This material was used by McKinsey & Company during an oral presentation; it is not a complete record of the discussion. CONFIDENTIAL

for Countries The World Bank and 19 June 2008

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SP

O-Z

WL7

58-2

0080

325

Dev

elop

men

t of I

T an

d IT

ES

O

ffsho

ring

–O

ppor

tuni

ties

for C

ount

ries

The

Wor

ld B

ank

and

Inte

rnat

iona

l Fin

ance

C

orpo

ratio

n –

Glo

bal I

nfor

mat

ion

and

Com

mun

icat

ions

Tec

hnol

ogie

s D

epar

tmen

t

info

Dev

Don

ors’

Mee

ting

19 J

une

2008

This

repo

rt is

sol

ely

for t

he u

se o

f clie

nt p

erso

nnel

. N

o pa

rt of

it m

ay b

e ci

rcul

ated

, qu

oted

, or r

epro

duce

d fo

r dis

tribu

tion

outs

ide

the

clie

nt o

rgan

izat

ion

with

out p

rior

writ

ten

appr

oval

from

McK

inse

y &

Com

pany

. Thi

s m

ater

ial w

as u

sed

by M

cKin

sey

&

Com

pany

dur

ing

an o

ral p

rese

ntat

ion;

it is

not

a c

ompl

ete

reco

rdof

the

disc

ussi

on.

CO

NFI

DE

NTI

AL

SP

O-Z

WL7

58-2

0080

325 1

CO

NTE

NTS

•IT/

ITE

S v

alue

pro

posi

tion

•Cou

ntry

ass

essm

ent

–LR

I des

ign

prin

cipl

es

–In

done

sia

asse

ssm

ent

•Pol

icy

obse

rvat

ions

•Pot

entia

l eco

nom

ic im

pact

•Im

plic

atio

ns fo

r inf

oDev

don

ors

SP

O-Z

WL7

58-2

0080

325 2

*In

clud

es P

hilip

pine

s, C

hina

, Rus

sia,

Eas

tern

Eur

ope,

Irel

and,

Mex

ico;

**

Incl

udes

add

ress

able

mar

kets

in c

urre

ntly

offs

horin

g in

dust

ries

***

Fina

ncia

l yea

rS

ourc

e:M

cKin

sey

Out

sour

cing

& O

ffsho

ring

prac

tice;

McK

inse

y G

loba

l Ins

titut

e; G

artn

er 2

005

data

base

; ID

C; N

AS

SC

OM

Stra

tegi

c R

evie

w 2

007

Pote

ntia

l mar

ket f

or o

ffsho

re IT

, BPO

and

R&

D

serv

ices

is a

t lea

st U

S $4

50 b

illio

n

ES

TIM

ATE

S

Oth

ers*

Indi

a

Glo

bal o

ffsho

re IT

exp

orts

, FY

*** 2

007

US

$ bi

llion

18.0

9.0

Cur

rent

si

ze

~190

-220

Add

ress

able

mar

ket

27.08x

Glo

bal B

PO e

xpor

ts**

, FY

2007

US

$ bi

llion 8.2

9.8

Cur

rent

si

ze

~150

18.08x

Add

ress

able

mar

ket

R&

D/e

ngin

eerin

g se

rvic

es

expo

rts,

FY

2007

US

$ bi

llion 4.6

20.0

5.4-

10.4

Cur

rent

si

ze

~115

-135

Add

ress

able

m

arke

t

10-1

5

10x

SIZE

OF

THE

OFF

SHO

RE

IT, B

PO A

ND

R&

D S

ERVI

CES

MA

RK

ET IS

PR

OJE

CTE

D T

O B

E VE

RY

LAR

GE;

CU

RR

ENTL

Y O

NLY

A S

MA

LL

FRA

CTI

ON

HA

S B

EEN

REA

LIZE

D

SP

O-Z

WL7

58-2

0080

325 3

IT S

ECTO

R G

RO

WTH

HA

S H

AD

PO

SITI

VE E

CO

NO

MIC

IMPA

CT

ON

DEV

ELO

PIN

G N

ATI

ON

S (1

/2)

Indi

aPh

ilipp

ines

•Em

ploy

men

t:Th

e P

hilip

pine

s ra

pidl

y gr

owin

g B

PO

sec

tor e

mpl

oyed

thre

e tim

es

as m

any

peop

le in

200

7 as

in 2

004

100

2004

2007

300

Empl

oyee

s ‘0

00

•GD

P:O

ver t

he la

st te

n ye

ars

IT-IT

ES in

In

dia

has

grow

n fro

m a

nas

cent

sec

tor t

o re

pres

entin

g m

ore

than

5%

of t

he n

atio

n’s

GD

P

1.2

2007

1998

5.4

% o

f GD

P

•Exp

orts

: Las

t yea

r Ind

ia’s

IT-IT

ES

sec

tor

cont

ribut

ed o

ver $

30 b

illion

of t

he n

atio

n’s

expo

rts

$ bi

llion

1.8

1998

31.9

2007

•Em

pow

erm

ent o

f wom

en:W

omen

ac

coun

t for

65

perc

ent o

f the

tota

l pr

ofes

sion

al a

nd te

chni

cal w

orke

rs in

the

Philip

pine

s

SP

O-Z

WL7

58-2

0080

325 4

Mod

el in

puts

and

out

puts

THE

LOC

ATI

ON

REA

DIN

ESS

IND

EX C

OM

PAR

ATI

VELY

ASS

ESSE

S C

OU

NTR

Y C

OM

PETI

TIVE

NES

S IN

TH

E IT

/ITES

SEC

TOR

Sour

ce:M

GI;

Team

ana

lysi

s

Loca

tion

read

ines

s in

dex

Wha

t the

mod

el d

oes

not d

o

•Id

entif

y th

e sp

ecifi

c pr

ojec

ts a

nd th

eir t

imin

g th

at c

ould

impr

ove

attra

ctiv

enes

s of

a c

ount

ry•

Fore

cast

mac

roec

onom

ic o

r soc

ial f

acto

rs•

Ana

lyze

intra

-cou

ntry

var

iatio

n in

attr

activ

enes

s

Purp

ose

of th

e m

odel

Inpu

ts:

•Cou

ntry

spe

cific

da

ta o

n –C

ost

–Tal

ent p

ool

–Key

risk

s–V

endo

r la

ndsc

ape

–Bus

ines

s en

viro

nmen

t–Q

ualit

y of

in

frast

ruct

ure

Out

puts

: •

Ove

rall

inde

x sc

ore

on

read

ines

s fo

r IT/

IT

ES

offs

horin

g•

Inde

x va

lues

on

all 6

inde

x di

men

sion

s•

Can

pro

ject

fo

rwar

d us

ing

exch

ange

rate

, G

DP

and

infla

tion

assu

mpt

ions

•Eva

luat

e re

adin

ess

of

the

coun

try

for I

T/IT

ES

of

fsho

ring

•Pro

vide

initi

al in

sigh

ts

into

whe

re g

aps

exis

t so

that

pol

icie

s ca

n be

pr

oper

ly ta

rget

ed

•Est

imat

e th

e po

tent

ial

impa

ct th

at a

dditi

onal

in

vest

men

tin

infra

stru

ctur

e or

pol

icy

chan

ge c

ould

hav

e on

co

untry

read

ines

s

SP

O-Z

WL7

58-2

0080

325 5

CR

ITER

IA U

SED

IN T

HE

LRI M

OD

ELC

riter

iaSu

b cr

iteria

•M

arke

t Mat

urity

•E

mpl

oyee

s in

IT -

ITE

S in

dust

ry a

s a

% o

f tot

al e

mpl

oym

ent i

n se

rvic

es s

ecto

r •

IT-IT

ES

siz

e (d

omes

tic +

exp

orts

) as

a %

of t

otal

siz

e of

ser

vice

sG

DP

•P

rese

nce

of a

n in

dust

ry a

ssoc

iatio

n•

Ris

k pr

ofile

•R

egul

ator

y ris

ks

•C

ount

ry in

vest

men

t ris

ks•

Dat

a pr

otec

tion

•Ta

lent

•Av

aila

bilit

y•

Suita

bilit

y•

Willi

ngne

ss•

Acc

essi

bilit

y•

Trai

nabi

lity

Det

ail/e

xpla

natio

n•

Cos

t•

Labo

r cos

t•

Infra

stru

ctur

e co

st

•C

orpo

rate

tax

•O

ther

ince

ntiv

es

•W

age,

bon

us, b

enef

its, t

rain

ing

Cos

t•

Tele

com

, rea

l est

ate

and

pow

er s

uppl

y•

Tax

rate

, Tax

hol

iday

•Tr

aini

ng s

ubsi

dies

, Dut

y ex

empt

ions

, Tra

inin

g in

cent

ives

, oth

ers

•E

nviro

nmen

t•

Gov

ernm

ent s

uppo

rt

•Bu

sine

ss a

nd li

ving

env

ironm

ent

•A

cces

sibi

lity

•Li

ving

Env

ironm

ent

•G

over

nmen

t pol

icy

tow

ards

fore

ign

inve

stm

ent,

Flex

ibilit

y of

la

bor l

aws,

cor

rupt

ion,

bur

eauc

ratic

bur

den,

Fle

xibi

lity

of

regu

latio

n•

Ove

rall

busi

ness

env

ironm

ent,

com

patib

ility

of b

usin

ess

ethi

cs•

Tim

e di

ffere

nce

to, t

rave

l tim

e, F

requ

ency

of d

irect

flig

ht

•A

ttrac

tiven

ess

of li

ving

env

ironm

ent,

Mur

ders

/ R

apes

per

ca

pita

, HIV

/ A

ids

per c

apita

•Q

ualit

y of

in

frast

ruct

ure

•Te

leco

m a

nd n

etw

ork

•R

eal e

stat

e

•Tr

ansp

orta

tion

•Po

wer

•To

tal i

nter

natio

nal v

oice

traf

fic, U

ptim

e of

end

-to-e

nd

netw

ork,

EIU

conn

ectiv

ity ra

ting

•To

tal i

nven

tory

of c

lass

a s

pace

s, V

acan

cy ra

te o

f cla

ss

A/B

spa

ces

•R

oad/

Rai

l net

wor

k pe

r cap

ita•

Pow

er o

utag

es in

day

s, P

eak

dem

and

/ P

eak

supp

ly

•S

tabi

lity

of la

ws

and

regu

latio

n, T

rans

pare

ncy

and

fairn

ess

of le

gal s

yste

m, B

urea

ucra

cy

•M

acro

Eco

nom

ic S

tabi

lity,

Cap

ital f

reed

om, C

urre

ncy

fluct

uatio

ns•

Pro

tect

ion

of in

telle

ctua

l pro

perty

•To

tal n

umbe

r of g

radu

ates

in fi

eld

or fi

elds

of i

nter

est

•Q

ualit

y of

the

avai

labl

e gr

adua

tes

•Is

the

indu

stry

attr

activ

e co

mpa

red

to o

ther

job/

care

er o

ptio

ns?

•Is

the

tale

nt c

lose

to fr

om jo

b ce

nter

s an

d w

ould

peo

ple

mov

e•

Are

ther

e sh

ort c

ours

es w

hich

can

incr

ease

sui

tabi

lity?

SP

O-Z

WL7

58-2

0080

325 6

Sour

ce:L

RI M

odel

; Tea

m a

naly

sis

Cos

tTa

lent

pool

Ove

rall

2.1

2.2 2.5

2.2

3.1 4.

4 4.7

4.3

•Key

are

as o

f tal

ent a

nd c

ost a

re fa

vora

ble

•Ind

ones

ia is

per

ceiv

ed to

be

a hi

gh ri

sk c

ount

ry

•In

the

abse

nce

of a

larg

e of

fsho

re in

dust

ry in

Indo

nesi

a, th

e IT

/ITE

S in

dust

ry is

not

mat

ure

•Hig

hest

pot

entia

l in

data

pro

cess

es w

hich

requ

ire g

ener

alis

t ski

lls•L

ack

of la

rge

pool

of a

naly

sts

and

MB

As

limits

the

oppo

rtuni

ties

in k

now

ledg

e se

rvic

es•W

ith a

larg

e en

gine

er p

ool,

ther

e is

sco

pe to

bui

ld th

e IT

ser

vice

s in

dust

ry

BPO

ser

vice

s

Infr

astr

uctu

reEn

viro

n-m

ent

Ris

ksM

atur

ity o

f in

dust

rySe

rvic

e lin

e

3.7

3.9

5.0

3.1 3.5

3.7

3.5

Dat

a pr

oces

ses

Voi

ce p

roce

sses

Kno

wle

dge

serv

ices

IT s

ervi

ces

3.0

13

45

62

Inde

x sc

orin

g: 1

= m

ost a

ttrac

tive

5 =

leas

t attr

activ

e

IND

ON

ESIA

ATT

RA

CTI

VE O

N C

OST

AN

D A

SEG

MEN

T O

F TH

E TA

LEN

T PO

OL

BU

T R

ISK

AN

D B

USI

NES

S EN

VIR

ON

MEN

T IN

DIC

ES A

RE

LOW

SP

O-Z

WL7

58-2

0080

325 7

Sour

ce:L

RI M

odel

; tea

m a

naly

sis

Cos

tTa

lent

pool

Ove

rall

1.5

1.5 2.

1

1.8

4.1

4.5 4.8

4.7

BPO

ser

vice

s

Infr

a-st

ruct

ure

Envi

ron-

men

tR

isks

Mat

urity

of

indu

stry

Serv

ice

line

3.86

3.44

4.20

3.22

3.34 3.64

3.50

Dat

a pr

oces

ses

Voi

ce p

roce

sses

Kno

wle

dge

serv

ices

IT s

ervi

ces

4.05

13

45

62

Inde

x sc

orin

g: 1

= m

ost a

ttrac

tive

5 =

leas

t attr

activ

e

KEN

YA’S

CO

STS

AR

E LO

W, H

OW

EVER

OTH

ER A

REA

S W

ILL

NEE

D T

O B

E A

DD

RES

SED

Key

take

away

s•K

enya

doe

s ve

ry w

ell o

n co

st•L

ow ta

lent

poo

l sco

re re

flect

s re

lativ

e pa

ucity

of u

nive

rsity

gra

ds, m

ay li

mit

pote

ntia

l of t

he

sect

or•I

nfra

stru

ctur

e qu

ality

is a

n im

porta

nt c

once

rn

Key

take

away

s•K

enya

doe

s ve

ry w

ell o

n co

st•L

ow ta

lent

poo

l sco

re re

flect

s re

lativ

e pa

ucity

of u

nive

rsity

gra

ds, m

ay li

mit

pote

ntia

l of t

he

sect

or•I

nfra

stru

ctur

e qu

ality

is a

n im

porta

nt c

once

rn

SP

O-Z

WL7

58-2

0080

325 8

HO

W IN

DO

NES

IA A

ND

KEN

YA C

OM

PAR

E W

ITH

OTH

ER C

OU

NTR

IES

IND

EXED

Sour

ce:T

eam

ana

lysi

s

2008

inde

x; s

corin

g: 1

= m

ost a

ttrac

tive

5 =

leas

t attr

activ

eIn

dia

US

2.2

3.03.

73.

6

Know

ledg

e

2.03.

13.

53.

5

IT

Ove

rall

2.9

1.43.

93.

4

1.0

1.05.

04.

2

3.7 1.

63.7

3.9

1.0

1.03.

14.

12.

71.

04.4

4.5 1.

63.34.

74.

8 1.13.

84.

34.

7

3.3 1.

53.0

4.0

1.9

2.3

1.6

1.5

4.8

4.8

3.7

3.5

2.2

2.1

1.8

2.1

1.5

1.5

2.5

2.2

Cos

t30

%

Tale

nt p

ool

30%

Infr

astr

uctu

re10

%

Envi

ronm

ent

10%

Ris

k10

%

Mat

urity

10%

Crit

eria

and

wei

ghtin

g

1 2 3 4 5 6

Indo

nesi

a Ke

nya

Dat

aVo

ice

Know

ledg

eIT

1.8

1.93.

13.

2

Dat

a

2.3

1.93.

53.

3

Voi

ce

SP

O-Z

WL7

58-2

0080

325 9

75%

Will

ingn

ess

139,

611

22,3

3816

,753

27,9

92

•H

igh

unem

ploy

men

t le

vels

mea

ns

man

y ar

e w

illing

to

mov

e to

find

w

ork

•C

omm

unic

atio

n sk

ills

do n

ot m

atch

the

requ

irem

ents

of t

he

indu

stry

; pro

ficie

ncy

of E

nglis

h sk

ills lo

w•

Qua

lity

of e

duca

tion

is lo

wer

out

side

the

capi

tal r

egio

n•

Edu

catio

nal s

yste

m

theo

retic

al•

Bas

ic p

robl

em

solv

ing

skills

low

•W

ith fe

w c

aree

r op

tions

, in

crea

sing

nu

mbe

r of

peop

le w

ill w

ant

to jo

in th

e in

dust

ry

THO

UG

H T

HE

IND

ON

ESIA

N R

EAD

Y TO

HIR

E PO

OL

IS

SIG

NIF

ICA

NT,

IMPR

OVI

NG

SU

ITA

BIL

ITY

WIL

L IN

CR

EASE

IT

FU

RTH

ER

20%

Suita

bilit

y

80%

Acc

essi

bilit

y

Rea

dy to

hi

re p

ool

Gen

eral

ist

grad

uate

s

•Th

ere

is a

n op

port

unity

to c

reat

e a

pool

of a

dditi

onal

35

,000

peo

ple

as 2

5%

of th

e to

tal g

radu

ates

ar

e tr

aina

ble

•Th

ese

are

only

the

gene

ralis

ts -

anot

her

10,0

00 g

radu

ates

in

busi

ness

and

te

chni

cal r

eady

to

hire

and

14,

000

trai

nabl

e

"The

qua

lity

of th

e ed

ucat

ion

is lo

w in

In

done

sia;

Eng

lish

is

not a

lang

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portu

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ctur

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e sh

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ndon

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risk

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cept

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petit

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e m

ediu

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long

term

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coun

try n

eeds

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prov

e la

bor s

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poo

l alre

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qual

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ket

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mm

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age

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coun

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l

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in th

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enya

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ctiv

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s to

com

pani

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prim

arily

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essi

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qua

lity,

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risk

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coun

try n

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nd w

ay to

ad

dres

s ta

lent

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l iss

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ourc

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side

r oth

er s

ecto

r str

uctu

res

e.g.

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g th

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ast A

frica

regi

onal

hub

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nd n

iche

mar

ket

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ever

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gh p

oten

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mpa

ct o

f the

sec

tor t

o ec

onom

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evel

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ent i

n K

enya

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mm

end

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teps

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age

with

the

coun

try to

:–

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ine

the

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ent t

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pro

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trai

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inin

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nal r

efor

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tner

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priv

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tent

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rdin

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educ

atio

nal r

efor

ms

•Ext

end

for o

ther

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nds

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in tr

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ther

cap

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l & re

gula

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rm•R

efor

m re

gula

tion

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IP la

ws

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leco

m d

ereg

ulat

ion

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oing

bus

ines

s”fa

ctor

s–

Land

and

title

refo

rm

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hnic

al a

dvic

e•A

dvis

e on

gov

erna

nce

issu

es

Infra

stru

ctur

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rovi

de in

dust

ry n

eces

sary

tool

s e.

g.–

Rea

l est

ate

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ild IT

par

ks–

Band

wid

th –

lay

cabl

e–

Tran

spor

tatio

n –

impr

ove

road

s,

build

airp

orts

–Po

wer

•Adv

ice

•Fun

ding