Food Security and Climate Change A zero draft consultation ...assets.fsnforumhlpe.fao.org.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/public/fil… · 10/04/2012 · known about the consequences

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Committee on World Food Security

High Level Panel of Experts on Food Security and Nutrition

Food Security and Climate Change

A zero draft consultation paper

19 March 2012

Submitted by the HLPE to open electronic consultation

This paper has been produced by the HLPE Project Team:

Gerald C. Nelson (Team Leader), Zucong Cai, Charles Godfray, Rashid Hassan,

Maureen Santos, and Hema Swaminathan.

This advanced draft is put online as part of the report elaboration process of the HLPE, for public

feedback and comments from 20 March 2012 until 10 April 2012.

To get the link to the consultation: www.fao.org/cfs/cfs-hlpe

This consultation will be used by the HLPE Project Team to further elaborate the report, which will then

be submitted to external expert review, before finalization by the Project Team under Steering Committee

guidance and oversight. According to the provisions of the Rules and Procedures for the work of the

HLPE, prior to its publication, the final report will be approved by the HLPE Steering Committee. This is

expected to take place at the 5th meeting of the HLPE Steering Committee (June 2012).

Food Security and Climate Change Zero draft consultation paper (19 March 2012)

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1 Table of Contents

FOREWORD ................................................................................................................................................. v

SUMMARY FOR POLICYMAKERS (INCLUDING LIST OF RECOMMENDATIONS) ................................ vi

1 Assessing impacts of climate change on food and nutrition security today .......................................... 1

1.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 1

1.2 Assessing direct and indirect impacts of climate change on food and nutrition security today .... 2

1.3 What do we know about climate change? .................................................................................... 3

1.4 Food security and the effects of climate change ........................................................................... 7

1.4.1 Climate change consequences for different agricultural systems ............................................. 8

1.4.2 Role of women in agricultural production .................................................................................. 9

1.4.3 Availability ............................................................................................................................... 11

1.4.4 Access ..................................................................................................................................... 16

1.4.5 Utilization ................................................................................................................................. 17

1.4.6 Stability .................................................................................................................................... 17

1.5 Policy messages ......................................................................................................................... 18

2 Assessing impacts of climate change on food and nutrition security tomorrow: Plausible scenarios of

the future ..................................................................................................................................................... 20

2.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 20

2.2 Climate scenarios and their consequences for climate change for food and nutrition security .. 21

2.3 Availability ................................................................................................................................... 22

2.4 Access ......................................................................................................................................... 23

2.5 Use .............................................................................................................................................. 24

2.6 Stability ........................................................................................................................................ 25

2.7 Data and modeling issues ........................................................................................................... 25

2.8 Policy Messages ......................................................................................................................... 25


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3 Chapter 3: Adaptation: Response options for food security challenges from climate change ............ 27

3.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 27

3.2 Lessons from recent adaptation .................................................................................................. 28

3.3 Anticipatory strategies and options for adapting to climate change ............................................ 28

3.3.1 Availability ............................................................................................................................... 28

3.3.2 Access ..................................................................................................................................... 30

3.3.3 Use .......................................................................................................................................... 31

3.3.4 Stability .................................................................................................................................... 31

3.4 Sectoral approaches to adaptation ............................................................................................. 31

3.4.1 The private sector.................................................................................................................... 31

3.4.2 Governments and international organizations ........................................................................ 32

3.4.3 The research community ......................................................................................................... 33

4 Agricultural mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions .......................................................................... 35

4.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 35

4.2 Agriculture’s contribution to greenhouse gas emissions ............................................................. 35

4.3 GHG emissions from land use change ....................................................................................... 36

4.4 Mitigation options in agriculture................................................................................................... 37

4.5 Synergies and tradeoffs between adaptation and mitigation ...................................................... 38

4.6 Policy messages ......................................................................................................................... 39

5 Recommendations for policies and actions ......................................................................................... 40

5.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 40

5.2 Climate change responses should be complementary to, not independent of, activities that are

needed for sustainable food security ....................................................................................................... 40

5.3 Climate change adaptation and mitigation require national activities and global coordination .. 41

5.3.1 Adaptation ............................................................................................................................... 41

5.3.2 Mitigation ................................................................................................................................. 41

5.4 Public-public and public-private partnerships are essential ........................................................ 42

References .................................................................................................................................................. 40


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2 List of Figures

Figure 1. Changing atmospheric concentrations of GHGs of importance to agriculture, 1978-2010 and

Growth in global warming potential by section 1970-2004 (lower right) ....................................................... 5

Figure 2. Regional distribution of GHG emissions in 2004 by population (mt CO2-eq per capita) ............... 6

Figure 3. Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions (PgC) .................................................................................................. 6

Figure 4. Comparison of observed continental- and global-scale changes in surface temperature with

results simulated by climate models using either natural or both natural and anthropogenic forcings. ....... 7

Figure 5. The share of women in agricultural work and in extension services, selected African countries 10

Figure 6. Agricultural population as a share of total economically active population (2003-2005 average)

.................................................................................................................................................................... 12

Figure 7. Estimated net impact of climate trends for 1980-2008 on crop yields, divided by the overall yield

trend ............................................................................................................................................................ 15

Figure 8. Losses in the food chain – from field to household consumption ................................................ 16

Figure 9. Change in average annual precipitation, 2000–2050, CSIRO, A1B (mm) .................................. 22

Figure 10. Change in average annual precipitation, 2000–2050, MIROC, A1B (mm) ............................... 22

Figure 11. Yield effects, rainfed maize, CSIRO A1B ................................................................................. 23

Figure 12. Yield effects, rainfed maize, MIROC A1B ................................................................................. 23

Figure 13. Vulnerability domains where there is greater than 5% change in length of growing period

(LGP). .......................................................................................................................................................... 24


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FOREWORD

The UN Committee on World Food Security (CFS) underwent a reform in 2009 in order to make the

international governance of food security and nutrition more effective through improved coordination,

policy coherence, and support and advice to countries and regions. The reformed CFS set up a High

Level Panel of Experts on Food Security and Nutrition (HLPE), for getting credible scientific and

knowledge-based advice to underpin policy formulation, thereby creating an interface between knowledge

and public policy. The HLPE is directed by a Steering Committee, appointed in July 2010. The work of the

HLPE supports the policy agenda of CFS: this makes its reports demand driven. It serves also to raise

awareness on emerging issues.

In its October 2010 annual meeting, the United Nations Committee on World Food Security (CFS)

requested its HLPE to conduct a study on climate change and food security, to “review existing

assessments and initiatives on the effects of climate change on food security and nutrition, with a focus

on the most affected and vulnerable regions and populations and the interface between climate change

and agricultural productivity, including the challenges and opportunities of adaptation and mitigation

policies and actions for food security and nutrition.”

[to be completed in the final version of the report.]


vi

SUMMARY FOR POLICYMAKERS (INCLUDING LIST OF

RECOMMENDATIONS)

[to be completed in the final version of the report.]

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1 ASSESSING IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOOD

AND NUTRITION SECURITY TODAY

1.1 Introduction

In its October 2010 annual meeting, the United Nations Committee on World Food Security (CFS)

requested its high level panel of experts (HLPE) to conduct a study on climate change and food security,

to “review existing assessments and initiatives on the effects of climate change on food security and

nutrition, with a focus on the most affected and vulnerable regions and populations and the interface

between climate change and agricultural productivity, including the challenges and opportunities of

adaptation and mitigation policies and actions for food security and nutrition.” This report is the outcome

of that request. The authors interpreted this charge to develop a document of relevance to national and

international policymakers that served four purposes. First, it should provide an overview of what is

known about the consequences of climate change for food and nutrition security, written with a policy

maker in mind. Because the effects of climate change will grow progressively more serious, the report

assesses both the current situation (Chapter 1) and plausible scenarios of the future (Chapter 2) with

focus on the most affected and vulnerable regions and populations. Second it should assess the state of

knowledge on and need for agricultural adaptation to climate change, in the context of the already large

challenges to food security from population and income growth in a world where many natural systems

are already stressed (Chapter 3). Third, it should report on agriculture’s current contributions to

greenhouse gas emissions and what potential is there for agriculture in mitigation – reducing its own

emissions and capturing emissions from other sectors – while meeting the growing demand for food

(Chapter 4). Finally, based on the insights from the first four chapters, the final chapter (Chapter 5)

suggests national and international policy strategies for dealing with the food security challenges of

climate change.

A short report cannot be exhaustive, either about the range of food security challenges from a growing

population, with higher incomes, in a world with increasingly scarce natural resources, or the threats from

climate change. Rather the goal is to synthesize existing research findings to highlight key issues, with

supporting evidence, to provide the basis for helping national and international policy makers devise

effective and equitable policies to combat the additional challenges to global food security from climate

change.

Three overarching policy messages arise from this report. They are introduced here, expanded in each of

the chapters and summarized in the last chapter. First, to help those most vulnerable to climate change,

policies and programs that are designed to respond to climate change should be complementary to, not

independent of, those needed for sustainable food security1. But climate change poses unique and

uncertain threats to food security that require public and private sector action today. Second, climate

change adaptation and mitigation activities in agriculture must be implemented on millions of farms and

undertaken by people who are often the most vulnerable. Local lessons learned are most valuable when

shared. Supporting activities require global coordination as well as national programs. Finally, both public-

public and public-private partnerships are essential to address all elements of the coming challenges to

1 See the glossary for more discussion of sustainable food security as discussed in the 2009 World Food

Summit declaration.


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food security from climate change in equitable and efficient ways. This will require greater transparency

and new roles for all elements of society, including the private sector and civil society.

1.2 Assessing direct and indirect impacts of climate change on food

and nutrition security today

The World Food Summit of 2009 included the following definition of food security in its final declaration.

Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to

sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active

and healthy life. The four pillars of food security are availability2, access

3, utilization

4 and

stability5. The nutritional dimension is integral to the concept of food security (Food and

Agriculture Organization, 2009).6

Certainly we have not succeeded in meeting this definition. Even the modest ambition of the hunger

target of the Millennium Development goals—halving the proportion of people who suffer from hunger

between 1990 and 2015—is also unlikely to be met on a global basis, although some individual countries

will achieve the target. The share of undernourished people has remained essentially constant at about

16 percent since 2000, after declining from 20 percent in 1990 (United Nations, 2010), and it too is likely

to have increased during the global financial crisis that began in the late 2000s.7

Climate change will make the challenge of achieving food security even harder. Its effects on food

production and distribution may increase poverty and inequality, with impacts on each of the four pillars,

and consequent effects on livelihoods and nutrition.

The Committee’s charge includes two foci

2 The supply side of food security, determined by production, stocks and trade.

3 Access is influenced by incomes, markets, and prices.

4 Utilization focuses on how the body takes advantage of the various nutrients. It is influenced by care and

feeding practices, food preparation, dietary diversity, and intrahousehold distribution.

5 Stability brings in the time dimension. Periodic shortfalls in food availability are a sign of food insecurity,

even if current consumption is adequate.

6 This definition of food security differs slight from that developed in the World Food Summit of 1996,

especially in its inclusion of the stability pillar.

7 A different perspective on recent global progress is given in Kenny (2012). “On Feb. 29 [2012], the

World Bank came out with its latest estimates on global poverty. They suggest incredible worldwide

progress against the scourge of absolute deprivation. In 1981, 52 percent of the planet lived on $1.25 a

day or less according to the World Bank's estimates; today it is around 20 percent. In 1990, around 65

percent of the population lived on less than $2 a day; by 2008 that number had fallen to 43 percent. This

is not just a story about China -- though 663 million people in that country alone have climbed out of

poverty since the early 1980s. Poverty has been declining in every region, and for the first time since the

World Bank began making estimates, less than half of the population of sub-Saharan Africa lives in

absolute deprivation.”


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the most affected vulnerable regions and populations

the interface between climate change and agricultural productivity

The “most affected vulnerable regions and populations” part of the request directs attention to the regions

of the world or populations that will feel the effects of climate change, either directly via changes in

precipitation and temperature, or indirectly, for example, via biophysical changes elsewhere that result in

market effects locally. Vulnerability to climate change8 suggests a focus on regions, groups, or individuals

who are significantly and adversely affected by the direct or indirect biophysical effects of climate

change9. These are mostly likely to be the poor; the well-off can afford to ‘buy’ food security, at least in

the short run.

Who are the poor? They are likely to be located in rural areas and be female and children. Using World

Bank statistics (http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/home/), over 20 percent of the world’s

population are below the $1.25 a day poverty line (about 1.3 billion people). They are overwhelmingly

located in two regions – Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. [A few more statistics to be added.]

An important point we return to in the final chapter is that programs and policies to deal with climate

change must be part of efforts to reduce poverty and enhance food security. There is likely to be

substantial overlap between the poor, those who are food insecure and those affected by climate change.

Climate change adds to the challenges of improving their well-being. But there are many other

determinants of poverty and challenges to the vulnerable. Attempts to address climate change

vulnerability that are undertaken independently risk using resources inefficiently and losing opportunities

for synergies. At the same time, climate change brings unique challenges that require modifications to

existing food security programs.

To set the stage, this section begins with an overview of what we know about the science of climate

change, the ways in which human behavior can bring about changes in climate and the evidence to date

that such change is taking place and how it affects food and nutrition security. It is followed by a

discussion of how food security is affected by climate change. These effects include biological

consequences for crops, livestock, and systems, and the direct and indirect consequences for food

security.

1.3 What do we know about climate change?

Climate is usually defined as average weather; climate change as changes in climate caused directly or

indirectly by human activity10

. Many things people do can cause local changes in climate.11

However, this

8 The glossary defines climate change vulnerability as “the degree to which an individual is or groups of

individuals are susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including

climate variability and extremes.”

9 A useful discussion of the basic concepts of food security, including concepts of vulnerability, is Food

and Agriculture Organization (2008).

10 Article 1 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) defines climate

change as: ‘a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the

composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over

comparable time periods’.

http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/home/


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report focuses on patterns that can be observed globally. Physicists and atmospheric scientists have

known for more than 100 years that some gasses in the atmosphere, known as greenhouse gases

(GHGs), convert light from the sun to heat that warms the air. The top and bottom left panels of Figure 1

show recent changes in concentrations of GHGs that are produced by agricultural activities. Carbon

dioxide (CO2) was the GHG that received initial attention in climate change research, because of the rapid

growth in petroleum use for transport and coal for energy generation in the 20th century. As the top left

graph in Figure 1 shows, there has been a steady increase in CO2 over the latter part of the 20th century

and the beginning of the 21st century.

12 Two other GHGs – nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) – are

created by agricultural activities. N2O is released from a variety of agricultural activities with nitrogen-

based fertilizer as an especially important source. N2O emissions have shown an upward growth similar

to that of CO2. Agricultural CH4 emissions come from two distinct activities – the digestive processes of

cattle and other ruminants (both wild and domesticated), and the decomposition of plant matter under

anaerobic conditions such as in irrigated rice fields. The growth in CH4 concentrations slowed in the

beginning of the 21st century. Some observers attribute this to a concerted effort to reduce leaks in natural

gas (almost completely made up of CH4) pipelines in some parts of the world. Other explanations include

reduction in wetland areas and changes in the atmospheric composition that increase the breakdown of

CH4.

The GHGs are very different in their ability to convert sunlight into warming, called their global warming

potential (GWP). The convention is to compare other GHGs to CO2 and report them in units of CO2

equivalents (CO2-eq).13

The bottom right graph in Figure 1 shows the growth in GWP from 1970 to 2004

by source. CO2 from fossil fuel use is the largest single source, and has grown steadily over this period,

but emissions from agricultural activities are quite important as well. Roughly speaking, agricultural

activities including deforestation account for about 1/3 of total GWP from GHG emissions.

11

Examples include higher temperatures in cities than in the surrounding countryside (heat islands) and

local increases in temperature and changes in rainfall patterns when forests are cleared.

12 The cyclical pattern arises because plants in the northern hemisphere take up CO2 in spring when they

grow and then release it in the fall when they die.

13 The GWP of CH4 is 25; for N2O it is 298.


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Figure 1. Changing atmospheric concentrations of GHGs of importance to agriculture, 1978-2010

and Growth in global warming potential by section 1970-2004 (lower right)

Sources: GHG concentrations - http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/aggi_2011.fig2.png. GWP -

http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/mains2-1.html

Figure 2 shows average emissions per person in different regions of the world. Annex 1 countries (which

are essentially the developed countries of today) have average emissions of 16.1 mt CO2-eq per capita

while the average for non-Annex 1 countries is roughly one fourth of this amount (4.2 mt CO2-eq per

capita). Within the group of non-Annex 1 countries South Asia has the lowest per capita emissions.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/aggi_2011.fig2.png

http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/mains2-1.html


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Figure 2. Regional distribution of GHG emissions in 2004 by population (mt CO2-eq per capita)

Source: Figure 2.2 a in IPCC (2007). Available at http://www.ipcc.ch/graphics/syr/fig2-2.jpg.

However, economic growth in non-Annex 1 countries is leading to rapid growth of emissions in those

countries, as Figure 3 indicates. For example, Olivier, Janssens-Maenhout, Peters, & Wilson (2011)

report that China’s per capita CO2 emissions in 2010 were larger than those of France and Spain and

could overtake the US by 2017. Meeting any of the emissions goals of recent UNFCCC meetings will

require both reductions in emissions from Annex 1 countries and reductions in emissions growth in non-

Annex 1 countries.

Figure 3. Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions (PgC)

Source: Figure 2 in Peters et al. (2012).

http://www.ipcc.ch/graphics/syr/fig2-2.jpg


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In parallel with the increases in GHG emissions, average temperatures across the globe have increased

from the late 19th century to the early 21

st century. During the first half of the 20

th century the average

temperature rose by about 0.3°C; by the beginning of the 21st century another 0.5°C had been added

(IPCC, 2007). To assess the possibility that the temperature increases are brought about by human-

driven increases in GHGs, a variety of evidence is brought to bear. A widely used technique is to use

software models (called GCMs in this report)14

of the physical and chemical processes of the atmosphere

and its interactions with land and oceans and use them to explore temperature changes with and without

GHGs from human activity. These models make it possible to perform virtual experiments, both to test the

models and to evaluate the effects of possible future emissions pathways and of mitigation policies.

Figure 4 illustrates the differences in model outcomes with historical data between 1900 and 2000 when

run with and without GHGs from human activities. The blue bands are model outcomes for temperature

without human-induced GHGs, the pink bars show temperature increases with these gases, and the black

lines indicate what actually happened. The black lines are almost entirely contained within the pink bands

and mostly fall outside the blue bands. These types of analyses suggest that the models do well both at

capturing the biophysical processes that result in changes in climate and that human-induced GHG

emissions are likely to have been important in the temperature increases already observed.

Figure 4. Comparison of observed continental- and global-scale changes in surface temperature

with results simulated by climate models using either natural or both natural and anthropogenic

forcings.

models using only

natural forcings

models using both

natural and

anthropogenic

forcings

observations

Source: Based on Figure 2.5 in WGI Figure SPM.4.

1.4 Food security and the effects of climate change

The threats to sustainable food security include population growth mostly in today’s developing countries

with growing incomes in a world where resource constraints are already limiting productivity growth in

some places. Climate change is a threat multiplier – adding to the challenges from the other threats. All

four pillars of food security are affected by changing climate means and increasing variability. These

14

The current versions of these models are called Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation

Models and are referred to as climate models or GCMs in this report. There are roughly 18 of these

models in active development around the world.

http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/figure-spm-4.html


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translate into changes in average levels and variability in food production, with knock-on effects on

income for food producers and food affordability for urban consumers. These effects will be felt, and must

be dealt with, from global to local food systems. Local social-environmental systems are where the

immediate effects of climate change are felt and are therefore key actors in societal responses to climate

change. But global, national and local social and political institutions will all play important roles in

managing the effects of climate change on food security and need to work together to find ways to reduce

risks and ensure food security and nutrition for all.

An important aspect of how climate change affects food security is differences in modes of agricultural

production both locally within a particular region and across the globe. There are many dimensions to

agricultural practices; we focus on two – the scale of farm operation and individuals who make decisions

and undertake the work on the farm. Other distinctions of relevance include the degree to which farm

output is sold, the extent to which farm operations are undertaken primarily by family labor, and the

degree of mixed outputs (different crops, crop and livestock outputs, and other ecosystem services15

),

sometimes referred to as multifunctionality (IAASTD, 2008). These are often, but not always, related to

scale of operation.

1.4.1 Climate change consequences for different agricultural systems

Food production systems are extremely diverse, both within individual countries and across national

boundaries. Climate change will not affect all systems the same, hence the need to assess different

policy and program approaches. At the same time policy choices influence the evolution of agricultural

systems, which can impact climate change and food security.

Agricultural systems differ in many dimensions, driven by climate, natural resource availability, owner-

and operator characteristics and sociocultural drivers. One common organizing approach to describing

agricultural systems is a dichotomy that contrasts small scale16

with larger scale farming. The IASSTD

report (2008) states that “The two systems differ greatly in terms of resource consumption, capital

intensity, access to markets and employment opportunities” (IAASTD, 2008: 44). A central element of

15

The benefits people obtain from ecosystems. These include provisioning services such as food and

water; regulating services such as flood and disease control; cultural services such as spiritual,

recreational, and cultural benefits; and supporting services such as nutrient cycling that maintain the

conditions for life on Earth.

16 What we refer to as small-scale farming goes by many names with varying definitions. It is also known

as small farmer, smallholder, family or peasant farmer, subsistence, and family agriculture. Participants in

small-scale farming include family farmers, herders and pastoralists, landless and rural workers, forest

dwellers, fisher folk, gardeners, indigenous peoples and traditional communities. (Actionaid UK, 2009:1).

Governments must translate these qualitative concepts about small-scale farming into official definitions

for policy implementation. Official definitions of small scale farming vary dramatically across countries and

incorporate different elements. In Asia, cultivated area is a typical measure and a common cutoff is 2

hectares. Using this definition globally, Nagayets (2005) reports that most small farms are in Asia (87

percent), followed by Africa (8 percent), Europe (4 percent) and North and South America (1 percent). In

Brazil, the official definition of a family farm (roughly equivalent to a small-scale farm) is 5-110 hectares

depending on region of the country, uses predominantly family labor, and provides the bulk of the family

income. In the U.S. the definition is based on the size of sales, with farms having sales less than $50,000

being considered small.


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scale is the agricultural area under the control of a farmer, both in its own right and because it is often

correlated with other elements of a farm operation, such as access to capital resources and information

on new inputs and management techniques. Almost three quarters of all farms globally are less than 1

hectare (Von Braun, 2005). With some assumptions about farm size within the categories of Table 2 in

Von Braun (2005), it is possible to estimate that farms of 20 hectares or less accounted for about 25

percent of total cultivated area in the early 2000s. However this global picture hides dramatic differences.

Farms in Asia and Africa average well below 10 hectares while North American farms are well over 100

hectares on average. In Africa and Latin America, small-scale farming represents approximately 80

percent of all farms (Nagayets, 2005). In Latin America they produce up to 67 percent of total output and

create up to 77 percent of employment in the agricultural sector (Food and Agriculture Organization of the

United Nations, 2011).

Small-scale farming operations play several critical roles in addressing the needs of vulnerable

populations. They “feed poor communities – including themselves” along with the majority of the world

population (IAASTD. 2008: 22). They manage a sizeable share of the agricultural land, employ a large

share of the poorer working community, provide access to food at the local and the regional level, and

sometimes have less harmful environmental impacts. Thus small-scale farming must play a major role

today in addressing the challenges of climate change.17

We know too little about how crops and livestock grown and management practices change with scale to

identify global patterns consistently, but it is commonly assumed that small-scale farms are more likely to

engage in mixed crop and livestock agriculture, which might be more resilient to climate change. On the

other hand, small-scale operations are less likely to have access to extension services, markets for new

inputs and seeds, and loans to finance operations. Gaining a better understanding of the differences in

farm activities, and vulnerability to climate change is critical, both to finding ways to improve food security

and to deal with the climate change challenges to agricultural productivity and stability.

1.4.2 Role of women in agricultural production

To address the climate change threats to agriculture, policies and programs must target those who make

the management decisions and carry out the work. In many parts of the world, this is done mostly by

women. A recent joint report by the World Bank, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

and the International Fund for Agricultural Development (2009) estimated that women account for 60 to

90 percent of total food production in their respective countries. In developing countries as a whole,

women constitute approximately 43 percent of the agricultural labor force, ranging from 20 percent in

Latin America to 50 percent in Southeastern Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa (FAO, 2011). Hence, programs

that are being designed to improve food security should target women and the activities that they

undertake. For example, targeting women with extension advice would seem to be the most cost-effective

way to deliver information about improved farming practices generally and climate change responses in

particular. Yet women are almost always underrepresented in extension services as Figure 5 shows for

selected African countries.

17

At the same time, it must be recognized that urbanization is proceeding rapidly in all parts of the world.

Using the United Nation medium variant population and urbanization estimates (available at

http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/index.htm, almost 69 percent of the world’s population will be living in urban

areas by 2050 and the rural population will decline from 3.4 million in 2010 to 2.9 million in 2050. At least

in some parts of the world, farm populations will decline and farm sizes grow.

http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/index.htm


10

Figure 5. The share of women in agricultural work and in extension services, selected African

countries

Source of figure: Figure SR-WA2 in IAASTD (2008).

Beyond the issue of access to information, women are typically disadvantaged on other aspects of

farming. Women are less likely to enjoy the same level of access to agricultural inputs as men which has

implications for agricultural productivity (Dey 1992, Quisumbing 1996, Thapa 2008 as cited in Agarwal

2011). There is very little systematic gender-disaggregated data on ownership of key assets such as land,

making it difficult to track trends either spatially or temporally. But the few studies that exist (see FAO,

2011 for details) point to large gaps in land holdings. Among all agricultural land holders in West Asia and

North Africa less than 5 percent are women while this figure is approximately 15 percent for Sub Saharan

Africa. At a regional level, Latin America has the highest

average share of female agricultural holders. A recent study

found that overall incidence of land ownership in the rural

population in the state of Karnataka in India was only 9

percent for women and 39 percent for men (H.

Swaminathan, Suchitra, & Lahoti, 2011). Further, evidence

shows that on average, female-headed households own

smaller plots than male-headed households.

Similarly, women are also constrained with regard to

livestock ownership and other productive inputs and

services including credit, technology, equipment, extension

services, fertilizers, water, and agricultural labour; all inputs

Box: Extreme weather in Ghana

affects women disproportionately

A study in northeast Ghana shows

that women subsistence farmers were

disproportionately affected by drought

and floods. Particularly vulnerable

were single women who lacked the

household labour to plant a labour-

intensive crop like rice. They also

could not harness the community

support that married women could to

help undertake house building and

repairs (Glazebrook, 2011).


11

needed to cope with climate change (World Bank 2009, FAO 2011). These gendered constraints directly

affect women’s farm productivity. According to FAO (2011), by addressing the gender gap in agriculture

developing countries can experience productivity gains of 2.5 to 4 percent with an associated decline of

12 – 17 percent in undernourished people. While this study did not address climate change specifically, it

is possible that the productivity gains would be even greater as the effects of climate change become

greater.

The policy message is that as vulnerable communities face negative shocks (droughts, floods, crop

failure) from climate change, the burden of food insecurity is likely to be borne disproportionately by

women and girls and there are both efficiency and welfare reasons for targeting food security programs

generally and climate-change-specific activities to women.

In the next sections we address briefly the potential effects of climate change on the four pillars of food

security.

1.4.3 Availability

Food availability begins on millions of farms around the world. Farmers use land, their family labor and

possibly that of others, and various kinds of equipment to manage the process of producing food. They

choose what to produce based on the natural resources at their disposal (including soil quality and

weather), the inputs they have access to (both previous investments such as irrigation systems and

current inputs such as seed and animal varieties), and the market situation they face. Some portion of

what they produce is transported off the farm, either by farmers themselves or traders transporting it to

processors or to intermediate or final markets. According to FAO (FAOSTAT, 2010), the number of

people working in agriculture grew from 2.5 billion in 2000 to 2.6 billion in 2010 with the share of total

population in agriculture declining from 42 percent to 28 percent. Global averages conceal great

differences across countries. As a general rule, the share of the population working in agriculture declines

as a country develops and has higher incomes per person as Figure 6 shows.


12

Figure 6. Agricultural population as a share of total economically active population (2003-2005

average)

Source: FAOSTAT.

1.4.3.1 Biological effects of climate change on crops, livestock, and agricultural

systems

Systematic studies of the effects of changes in temperature and precipitation across the range of crops,

livestock, and fish are in their infancy and more research is needed to understand the consequences and

identify promising avenues for productivity and resiliency enhancing investments. Crops respond most

favourably to environments similar to those they evolved in – maize in Central America, potatoes in the

Andes, wheat in the Middle East, rice in South Asia – and for the climate conditions in which they

evolved. Breeding efforts extend the range of environmental possibilities, and that is especially true for

crops that have substantial genetic diversity or the greatest commercial demand. In relation to climate

change, considerably more research has been done on its effects on grains than on roots and tubers,

horticultural crops and feed crops, and there is much more information available on its impacts in

temperate climes than in the tropics, and in land-based systems than in marine-based systems.

Climate change affects plants, animals and natural systems in many ways18

. In general, higher average

temperatures will accelerate the growth and development of plants. Most livestock species have comfort

zones between 10-30 °C, and at temperatures above this, animals reduce their feed intake 3-5 percent

per additional degree of temperature. In addition to reducing animal production, higher temperatures

negatively affect fertility. Some of the other impacts of climate change on animals are mediated through

its effect on the plants they eat. Rising temperatures are not uniformly bad: they will lead to improved crop

productivity in parts of the tropical highlands, for example, where cool temperatures are currently

constraining crop growth. Average temperature effects are important, but there are other temperature

effects too. Increased night-time temperatures reduce rice yields, for example, by up to 10 percent for

18

This section draws heavily from Thornton PK, Cramer L (eds), forthcoming 2012, “Impacts of climate

change on the agricultural and aquatic systems and natural resources within the CGIAR’s mandate”.

CCAFS Report, CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS),

Copenhagen, Denmark. This report has detailed discussions on climate change vulnerability of each of

the CGIAR mandate crops, animals, and systems.


13

each 1°C increase in minimum temperature in the dry season. Increases in maximum temperatures can

lead to severe yield reductions and reproductive failure in many crops. In maize, for example, each

degree day spent above 30 °C can reduce yield by 1.7 percent under drought conditions. Higher

temperatures are also associated with higher ozone concentrations. Ozone is harmful to all plants but

soybeans, wheat, oats, green beans, peppers, and some types of cotton are particularly susceptible.

Changes in temperature and rainfall regime may have considerable impacts on agricultural productivity

and on the ecosystem provisioning services provided by forests and agroforestry systems on which many

people depend. There is little information currently available on the impacts of climate change on

biodiversity and subsequent effects on productivity in either forestry or agroforestry systems. Globally, the

negative effects of climate change on freshwater systems are expected to outweigh the benefits of overall

increases in global precipitation due to a warming planet.

The atmospheric concentration of CO2 has risen from a pre-industrial 280 ppm to approximately 392 ppm

in 2010, and was rising by about 2 ppm per year during the last decade. Many studies show yield

increases (“CO2 fertilisation”) for C3 crops and limited if any effects on C4 plants such as maize and

sorghum. There is some uncertainty associated with the impact of increased CO2 concentrations on plant

growth under typical field conditions, and in some crops such as rice, the effects are not yet fully

understood. While increased CO2 has a beneficial effect on wheat growth and development, for example,

it may also affect the nutrient mix in the grain (discussed below). In some crops such as bean, genetic

differences in plant response to CO2 have been found, and these could be exploited through breeding.

Increased CO2 concentrations lead directly to ocean acidification, which (together with sea-level rise and

warming temperatures) is already having considerable detrimental impacts on coral reefs and the

communities that depend on them for their food security.

Vegetables are generally sensitive to environmental extremes and high temperatures and limited soil

moisture are the major causes of low yields in the tropics. These will be further magnified by climate

change (Pe<unicode>241a and Hughes 2007).

Little is known, in general, about the impacts of climate change on the pests and diseases of crops,

livestock and fish, but they could be substantial. Yams and cassava are crops that are both well adapted

to drought and heat stress, but it is thought that their pest and disease susceptibility in a changing climate

could severely affect their productivity and range in the future. Potato is another crop for which the pest

and disease complex is very important – similarly for many dryland crops – and how these may be

affected by climate change (including the problems associated with increased rainfall intensity) is not well

understood.

Climate change will result in multiple stresses for animals and plants in many agricultural and aquatic

systems in the coming decades. There is a great deal that is yet unknown about how stresses may

combine. In rice, there is some evidence that a combination of heat stress and salinity stress leads to

additional physiological effects over and above the effects that each stress has in isolation. Studies are

urgently needed that investigate “stress combinations” and the interactions between different abiotic and

biotic stresses in key agricultural and aquacultural systems.

Most studies of the biological effects of climate change on crop production have focused on yield19

. A

second impact, much less studied, is how the quality of food and forages are affected by climate change;

19

See http://climate.engineering.iastate.edu/Document/Grain percent20Quality.pdf for more details on

climate change effects on grain quality.

http://climate.engineering.iastate.edu/Document/Grain%20Quality.pdf


14

i.e., the composition of nutrients in the individual food items and the potential for a changing mix of foods

as crops and animals respond in different ways to a changing climate. Grains have received the most

attention – with both higher CO2 levels and temperature affecting grain quality. For example, Hatfield et

al. (2011) summarize research showing that protein content in wheat is reduced by high CO2 levels.

FACE experiments reported by Ainsworth and McGrath (2010) and in China (Erda et al., 2010) show that

protein content of non-leguminous grain crops decreased by 10-14 percent and also mineral

concentrations such as iron and zinc decreased by 15-30 percent for CO2 concentrations of 550 ppmv,

compared to ambient levels. Wrigley (2006) reported that yield increase in wheat due to doubling of CO2

comes from more grains rather than larger grains and produces lower protein content and higher starch

content. The International Rice Research Institute (IRRI, 2007) reported that higher temperatures will

affect rice quality traits such as chalk, amylase content, and gelatinization temperature.

1.4.3.2 Evidence of effects of climate change on agriculture today

Evidence is mounting of the links between human-induced GHG emissions and effects on agricultural

productivity. For example, recent research by David Lobell and colleagues strongly suggests that rising

temperatures in the second half of the 20th century and early years of the 21

st century, and accompanying

changes in precipitation, have already had observable and varying effects on agriculture across the

globe. Lobell, Schlenker, and Costa-Roberts (2011) find a dramatic difference in the recent past (1980-

2008) between the small changes in growing season temperature in North America and the large

increases in other parts of the world, particularly Europe and China. The consequence can clearly be

seen in the changes in yields in Figure 7. Focusing on maize, the U.S. shows essentially zero effect of

climate change on yield trends while for China, Brazil, and France, climate change slowed yield growth

substantially. However, regional crop production in some countries have benefited from higher

temperatures, observations supported by northward shifts in maize area in the U.S., rice area in China,

and wheat area in Russia. Rapidly increasing GHG emissions, especially in developing countries,

combined with growing evidence of negative climate change effects on agriculture, the likelihood of

nonlinear effects of temperature on yields, and hints of the added burden of more frequent extreme

weather events suggest an extremely serious challenge for sustainable food security.


15

Figure 7. Estimated net impact of climate trends for 1980-2008 on crop yields, divided by the

overall yield trend

Source: Figure 3 in Lobell, Schlenker, and Costa-Roberts (2011).

1.4.3.3 Food security and climate change effects after harvest

Figure 8 illustrates the potential for enhancing food security by interventions after harvest and the

potential for negative effects from climate change. Harvest losses on farm, from harvest practices and

poor storage, account for 13 percent of harvested output, and occur predominantly in developing

countries. Higher temperatures and greater humidity from climate change will encourage more damage in

stored grain from insects and fungal attacks. Animals consume another 26 percent of the harvest. Dietary

changes to reduce meat consumption where it is harmful to human health would significantly reduce this

use making more available for direct human consumption and reducing pressure to expand agricultural

areas. Distribution losses and waste account for a further 17 percent of the harvest. These losses occur

most frequently in developed countries. Higher temperatures from climate change will increase the need

for refrigeration in the food distribution network.

What seems clear is that investments to reduce losses after harvest generally will also address the

negative effects of climate change. In this case, climate change increases the urgency but not the

direction of efforts to reduce post-harvest loss.


16

Figure 8. Losses in the food chain – from field to household consumption

Source: Designed by Hugo Ahlenius, Nordpil based on Figure 1 in Lundqvist, de Fraiture, & Molden,

(2008)

1.4.4 Access

Even when availability is not a concern, access to food is affected by climate change due to the disruption

or loss of livelihoods and price volatility of staples. Individuals with high risk of food insecurity are largely

concentrated in rural areas where food production takes place so their livelihoods will be directly affected

by local effects of climate change and indirectly by effects in other parts of the world. Given the general

trend for increased urbanization globally, climate change effects will also be felt by the urban poor. A

recent study by Chen and Ravallion (2007) finds that even though poverty is still a rural phenomenon, the

incidence of urban poverty to total poverty is positively associated with urbanization ; that is, as

urbanization continues, urban poverty rates will likely rise. Climate change could significantly increase the

risk of severe undernourishment for the poor. For those whose incomes are just above the poverty line

and who lack private or public safety nets,

climate change shocks can make them

food insecure, even if only for a period

(affecting the stability pillar).

Access is also conditioned by power

imbalances in the social and political

sphere. For example, support for

community-led initiatives such as food

banks and state-financed food distribution

systems may be reduced during times of

economic hardship induced by climate

change.

Policy approaches and interventions

governing access are typically focused on

Box: Wild harvested food and climate change.

According to Arnold et al. (2011) around one billion

people, likely to be among the poorest of the poor, rely on

wild harvested products for food and income. For

instance a study by Nasi, Taber and Van Vliet provides

data showing that approximately 4.5 million tons of bush

meat is extracted annually from the Congo Basin forests

alone. Wild animal and plant foods add not only

considerable calories but also much needed protein and

micronutrients. As climate change alters ecosystem

functioning it is possible that these important foods for the

poor will be negatively affected. It is also likely that

relying on this food source may become a more important

adaptation strategy during natural disasters, droughts,

and floods.


17

the household. But intrahousehold food allocation choices may lead to differential effects of climate

change on access. ‘Women’s” work often includes fetching water, fuel wood collection, food preparation

and caring for all household members, leaving women little time to engage in cash-generating activities.

When environmental degradation caused by climate change increases the time spent on activities like

water collection, it drives down further women’s ability to earn an income. Given intra-household

dynamics it is conceivable that women and girls are affected more acutely during scarcity than men and

boys.

1.4.5 Utilization

The quantity of available food is only one of several determinants of the effective utilization of food, with

access to clean water important for all consumers and maternal education especially important for child

nutrition (Smith & Haddad, 2000). The diversity of diet is also important with consumption of a range of

fresh fruits and vegetables and moderate amounts of protein sources (vegetable, animal or fish-based)

and starchy staples recommended by nutritionists. However, dietary trends around the world are towards

consumption of processed food products with large proportion of sugars, fats and oils, leading to growing

concerns about overnutrition and negative health consequences of obesity, even in developing countries

(UN, 2011).

Because efforts to alleviate hunger require provision of food with sufficient energy (calorific) content,

public sector research resources have been devoted to improving the productivity of the major staple

crops, especially rice, wheat, and maize that currently account for 50 percent of total calorie consumption

globally and with much higher shares in developing countries (FAOSTAT). Fewer resources have been

devoted to fruits and vegetables. However, fruits and vegetables are extremely valuable for dealing with

micronutrient deficiencies. They also provide smallholder farmers with much higher income and more jobs

per hectare than staple crops (AVRDC 2006). The worldwide production of vegetables has doubled over

the past quarter century [get statistic on fruits] and the value of global trade in vegetables exceeds that of

cereals. More research is needed on the effects of climate change on fruit and vegetable productivity.

By altering the pattern of pests and diseases, climate change can affect utilization by impacting human

health and food quality and safety (FAO, 2008). Weather changes, increased droughts and flooding,

greater variance in precipitation are all likely to pose an increased risk to human health.

1.4.6 Stability

The fourth pillar of food security is stability; uninterrupted availability and access to food. Periodic

inadequate access contributes to food insecurity and results in a reduced nutritional status (FAO, 2008).

Crop production is cyclic with availability during periods after harvest met either by local storage or supply

from other regions, domestic or international. Access in the off-season requires availability and income to

store food or purchase it.

Instability from climate change can arise because of increased variability in production induced by climate

change. Extreme events, including excessive temperature at crucial periods in growth, droughts and

floods, are a particular threat to stability. All are expected to become more frequent as a consequence of

climate change. Climate change is also likely to bring changes in growing seasons with the amount and

timing of rainfall and temperature patterns altered. Shortfalls in production, either from extreme events or

shifts in growing seasons reduce local availability and therefore local income and access. These effects

are likely to fall disproportionately on the vulnerable.


18

Local stability can be also be affected by climate change effects out the regions, such as political

instability and price volatility. For example, international grain flows have long been seen as a mechanism

to at least partially compensate for the increased variability that climate change will bring. The food price

spikes that began in 2008 were driven in part by weather events that are likely to become more frequent

with climate change. An unfortunate response in some countries was to limit the amount of grain that

could be exported, exacerbating the effects on availability and raising prices in other parts of the world.

The report of the HLPE on price volatility and food security (2011) has recommendations on how to

manage food price volatility that will become ever more relevant as climate change effects become more

pronounced.

1.5 Policy messages

This section summarizes the policy messages from chapter 1.

Programs and policies to deal with climate change must be part of efforts to reduce poverty and enhance

food security. Attempts to address climate change vulnerability that are undertaken independently risk

using resources inefficiently and losing opportunities for synergies. At the same time, climate change

brings unique challenges that require modifications to existing food security programs.

Improvements in productivity are essential to deal with food security challenges. Climate change

necessitates research into crops, livestock and systems that are resilient to extreme events. To address

nutritional security in the face of climate change, more research is needed on fruit and vegetable

productivity as climate changes.

Food production systems are extremely diverse, both within individual countries and across national

boundaries. Climate change will not affect all systems the same, hence the need to adopt a range of

policy and program approaches. Small-scale farms account for a large share of global agricultural land

use, rural employment, and often are operated by women. They are more likely to engage in mixed crop

and livestock agriculture, which might be more resilient to climate change. On the other hand, small-scale

operations are less likely to have access to extension services, markets for new inputs and seeds, and

loans to finance operations. Policies that address the limits facing small-scale farmers, and that ensure

women have opportunities for equal access to information and resources will have important productivity,

resiliency and poverty-reducing benefits for food security generally and for dealing with climate change.

Vulnerable communities face negative shocks (droughts, floods, crop failure) from climate change, the

burden of food insecurity is likely to be borne disproportionately by women and girls and there are both

efficiency and welfare reasons for targeting food security programs generally and climate-change-specific

activities to women.

The report of the HLPE on price volatility and food security (2011) has recommendations on how to

manage food price volatility that will become ever more relevant as climate change effects become more

pronounced.

Inadequate information is available to deal effectively with many aspects of the food security challenges

from climate change. We highlight two.

- The biophysical effects of climate change on plant and animal productivity and stability of production,

including the effects on pests and diseases that affect food production and post-harvest marketing

system. Most information is available on the large staple crops, less on livestock (including fish), and

even less on fruits and vegetables.


19

- How crops and livestock grown and management practices differ with scale and gender and will be

affected by climate change.

20

2 ASSESSING IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOOD

AND NUTRITION SECURITY TOMORROW: PLAUSIBLE

SCENARIOS OF THE FUTURE

2.1 Introduction

Chapter one reviewed how the four pillars of food and nutrition security have been and are currently

affected by climate change in various regions and among various groups, particularly the most

vulnerable. This chapter presents perspectives on how future climate changes might affect food and

nutrition security including social, economic and biophysical outcomes for vulnerable groups in regions

and food systems where climate change risks are high.

Because of the complex dynamics among climate and ecosystem change; food production, distribution,

and utilization; general socioeconomic development, institutional change and various dimensions of

human wellbeing and poverty, scenarios are used to explore possible future outcomes. “Scenarios are

plausible and often simplified descriptions of how the future may develop, based on a coherent and

internally consistent set of assumptions about key driving forces and relationships.” (Millennium

Ecosystem Assessment, 2005). Scenarios fall in the middle ground between facts and speculations

where both complexity and uncertainty are substantial. It is often most helpful to use a variety of

scenarios, constructed from ranges of plausible drivers, to better understand the range of plausible

futures.

Scenario development starts with identifying potentially negative outcomes in the future for which more

understanding might help to inform better policy changes today. We begin with a short exploration of

approaches and models to develop and use climate change scenarios to understand potential future

trends of key climate attributes and consequences for sustainable food security. The climate change

community has used scenarios extensively to assess the host of economic, social and institutional drivers

that determine levels of human-induced GHG emissions (Nakicenovic et al., 2000). Implicit (and

sometimes explicit) in these scenarios are changes to the natural, economic and social systems that form

the socio-ecological infrastructure critical for economic development, poverty alleviation and human

wellbeing. Plausible futures for a range of non-climate variables (population, income, technology) are

therefore necessary to add to climate scenarios to develop food security scenarios that include the effects

of climate change. Other groups have used scenarios to explore many topics, including ecosystem

challenges ((Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005), energy futures (Shell International BV, 2008),

and water scarcity (Alcamo & Gallopin, 2009).

Vulnerability of food and nutrition security to climate change is a function of all the driving factors

mentioned above. Biophysical changes from climate change affect food availability through supply

impacts (e.g., changes in average yields and increases in variability) and the resulting challenges to

livelihoods of producers. Climate change also has important implications for food distribution and access

as it requires climate resilient road infrastructure and functioning markets and other social and economic

institutions. In addition to these supply side effects, climate change might affect utilization (demand by

consumers), not only through effects on their incomes but also consumption behavior. Consequences for

food stability could come from increased incidences of extreme events leading to frequent temporary food

shortages and stresses on resources’ availability often causing political unrests.

Draft V0 for E‐Consultation

21

This chapter begins with a review of scenarios of the temperature and precipitation effects of climate

change and their consequences for food security. It then reports on recent scenario exercises that

combine socioeconomic and climate change scenarios to assess the effects on other pillars of food and

nutrition security and various dimensions of human well-being.

2.2 Climate scenarios and their consequences for climate change for

food and nutrition security

Periodically, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issues assessment reports on the

state of our understanding of climate science and interactions with the oceans, land, and human

activities20

. While the general consequences of increasing atmospheric concentrations of GHGs are

becoming increasingly better known, great uncertainty remains about how climate change effects will play

out in magnitudes and in specific locations. At this point there is no single emissions scenario that is

viewed as most likely. Furthermore, the climate outputs from different GCMs using identical GHG

emissions scenarios differ substantially, with no obvious way to choose among them.

All GCM results have the expected general tendencies of increasing temperature and precipitation21

.

However, global averages from the GCMs conceal both substantial regional variability and changes in

seasonal patterns. Divergence between GCM outcomes is particularly sharp in predicting future

precipitation trends. Figure 9 and Figure 10 map the average annual changes in precipitation from the

CSIRO and MIROC GCMs using the A1B22

scenario. There are large differences in the two models’

predictions for many regions of the world. For example, although the MIROC scenario results in

substantially greater increases in average precipitation globally, there are certain regions, such as the

northeast part of Brazil and the eastern half of the United States, where this GCM reports a much drier

future.

20

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) simulate the interactions between humans and their

surroundings, including industrial activities, transportation, and agriculture and other land uses; these

models estimate the emissions of the various greenhouse gases. The emissions simulation results of the

IAMs are made available to the GCM models as inputs that alter atmospheric chemistry. The end result is

a set of estimates of precipitation and temperature values around the globe.

21 See Table A2.3 in Nelson et al., (2010) for information on regional differences in temperature and

precipitation outcomes.

22 The A1B scenario is one of several scenarios reported in the IPCC special report on emissions

scenarios as part of its third assessment activities (Nakicenovic et al., 2000). The A1 storyline and

scenario family describes a future world of very rapid economic growth, global population that peaks in

mid-century and declines thereafter, and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies.

The A1B scenario has a balance in technological improvements across all energy sources.


22

Figure 9. Change in average annual

precipitation, 2000–2050, CSIRO, A1B (mm)

Figure 10. Change in average annual

precipitation, 2000–2050, MIROC, A1B (mm)

Source: Nelson et al., (2010) based on downscaled climate data, available at http://futureclim.info.

The scenario uncertainties at global level are magnified at regional and local scales where individual

adaptation decisions. This represents a serious challenge to informed policy and decision making

everywhere but especially for regions and production systems that are dependent on rainfall (dryland

agriculture) and which are home to many of the world’s most vulnerable. Appropriate adaptation

strategies would differ significantly depending whether one needs to deal with likely more drought or

flooding climate episodes.

2.3 Availability

Climate change effects on agriculture that affect food security are in the first instance the result of

productivity loss. Changes in precipitation and temperature will in most locations reduce average yields

and increase variability in production. In some locations, a combination of temperature and precipitation

changes might result in complete loss of agricultural activity; in a few locations agriculture might become

possible. Many studies use climate scenario models’ outcomes in crop growth simulation models to

assess potential impacts on yields (Reilly et al., 2003; Parry, Rosenzweig, Iglesias, Livermore, & Fischer,

2004; Cline, 2007; Challinor, Ewert, Arnold, Simelton, & Fraser, 2009; Nelson et al., 2010) with a wide

range of potential outcomes depending on crop, region, GCM and climate change scenario. For example,

Figure 11 and Figure 12 show how different climate scenarios can result in very different effects on

yields. With identical GHG emissions pathways (the A1B scenario), the MIROC GCM climate results in

substantial rainfed maize yield declines in the U.S. corn belt and parts of Brazil and substantial yield

increases in parts of India while the CSIRO GCM yield effects are less negative and less varied across

the globe. Across the range of crops and climate scenarios modeled in Nelson et al. (2010), the yield

effects range from increases in a few places to declines of as much as 30 percent. Improved

understanding of the potential effects of climate change on agricultural productivity is critical to developing

appropriate adaptation strategies. More generally, crop model outputs are likely to understate the effects

of climate change because they do not account for pests and disease stresses.

Swaminathan & Kesavan (2012) suggest that among the regions that are likely at risk of future climate

change, the arid and semi-arid areas of the tropics in Africa and South Asia and in Mediterranean climate

of West Asia and North Africa are the most vulnerable. The results from Cline (2007) also suggest that

India and Africa is where the highest productivity declines are expected. Similar results of adverse

productivity effects of climate change are predicted for livestock (Neinaber and Han, 2007; Thornton et

al., 2009) and marine fisheries (Perry, Low, Ellis, & Reynolds, 2005).

http://futureclim.info/


23

Figure 11. Yield effects, rainfed maize, CSIRO A1B

Figure 12. Yield effects, rainfed maize, MIROC A1B

Source: Nelson et al., (2010), Figures 9 and 10.

2.4 Access

Some studies have attempted to construct scenarios that describe access outcomes by combining what

is known about current vulnerability with changes in future availability. A recent study by Ericksen et al.

(2011) uses the best available global spatial data on current vulnerability combined with 9 different

components of future biophysical vulnerability from climate change23

to construct a domain-based

threshold (high and low) assessment of overall vulnerability based on three components of vulnerability –

exposure, sensitivity, and coping capacity – in regions of interest to the CGIAR’s Research Program 7

(Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security) (see ). For example, Figure 13 shows the vulnerable

domains affected by the change in length of growing period (LGP). In the most vulnerable domains, 14.2

23

Areas that will experience more than a 5 percent reduction in LGP, Areas that will flip from LGP greater

than 120 days in the 2000s to LGP less than 120 days by 2050, Areas that flip from more than 90 reliable

crop growing days (RCGD) per year in the 2000s to less than 90 RCGD by 2050, Areas where the

average annual temperature flips from less than 8°C in the 2000s to more than 8°C by 2050, Areas where

average annual maximum temperature will flip from under 30°C to over 30°C, Areas where the maximum

temperature during the primary growing season is currently less than 30°C but will flip to more than 30°C

by 2050, during the primary growing season, where coefficient of variability of rainfall is currently high,

areas where rainfall per day decreases by 10 percent or more between 2000 and 2050, where the

amount of rainfall per rainy day increases by 10 percent between 2000 and 2050.


24

million hectares will likely have a significant change in LGP with a total population affected of 401 million.

They find that other effects of climate change will affect vulnerable regions and populations in different

ways.

Figure 13. Vulnerability domains where there is greater than 5% change in length of growing period (LGP).

The assessments described above have important deficiencies. Most of them do not account for

adaptation, either autonomous for anticipatory. For example, the Erickson, et al, report combines future

climate outcomes with today’s vulnerabilities. The studies tend to focus on average shifts rather than

changes in variability and extreme events. And they focus exclusively on the challenges from climate

change without considering changes in socioeconomic factors (income, population, government policies

and programs, etc.)

2.5 Use

A few studies have included socioeconomic as well as climate change drivers and allowed for some

elements of adaptation. We report results from one of these to indicate the range of plausible outcomes.

Nelson et al., (2010) combine a range of crop productivity scenarios based on 5 different climate futures

with three combinations of population and GDP futures (low population and high GDP growth, high

population and low GDP growth and an intermediate combination of population and GDP growth) to

assess the range of plausible outcomes for food security and human well-being. This study uses both

proxy (per capita income, average kilocalorie availability per day) and direct measures of food security

(number of malnourished children under five) (Riely F., Mock, Cogill, Bailey, & Kenefick, 1999; Webb P. et

al., 2006).

A central policy message is the importance of economic development in addressing vulnerability. In low-

income developing countries today, average kilocalorie availability is only two-thirds of the availability in

the richest countries. With high per capita income growth and no climate change, availability in 2050

reaches almost 85 percent of that in the developed countries. With the high population and low GDP

growth scenario, however, average availability declines in all regions. For middle-income developing

countries, the low population-high GDP-growth scenario results in a 50 percent decline in the number of

malnourished children; under the high population-low GDP-growth scenario, the decline is only 10

percent. For low-income developing countries, the decline is 36.6 percent under the low population-high

GDP-growth scenario, but under the high population-low GDP-growth scenario the number of

malnourished children increases by more than 18 percent—an increase of almost 17 million children.

Climate change exacerbates the challenges in reducing the number of malnourished children. Climate

change increases the number of malnourished children in 2050 relative to a no-climate-change future by


25

about 10 percent for the low population-high GDP-growth scenario and 9 percent for the high population-

low GDP-growth scenario. In low-income countries under the low population-high GDP-growth scenario,

climate change increases the number of malnourished children by 9.8 percent; under the high population-

low GDP-growth scenario, by 8.7 percent. Across the climate scenarios, the differences in price (and

other) outcomes are relatively small, because international trade flow partially compensate. For example,

changes in developed country net cereal exports between 2010 and 2050 range from an increase of 5

million mt in the perfect mitigation scenario to a decline of almost 140 million mt. The trade flow changes

partially offset local climate change productivity effects, allowing regions of the world with less negative

effects to supply those with more negative effects. Hence, another central policy message is the

importance of relatively free movement of food across international borders as partial adaptation to

climate change.

None of these global scenario efforts attempt to address distributional issues within countries and the

possibility that climate change might affect the vulnerable disproportionately although this is a plausible

effect.

2.6 Stability

Quantitative scenario exercises of the effects of climate change have not dealt with the consequences of

increased variability from climate change. The principal explanation for this is that although climate

scientists are confident that increased variability will occur, based on the underlying physics of the

atmosphere, the GCM outputs have not been designed to provide the necessary data on variability

needed by the crop models that are used to assess climate effects on agricultural productivity. There is a

critical need for transdisciplinary efforts to address this lacunae.

2.7 Data and modeling issues

Although our ability to model the complexities of both the biophysical and socioeconomic aspects of

climate change to produce plausible scenarios has advanced dramatically in the past few decades, there

are still major shortcomings that affect our ability to understand the consequences of climate change for

vulnerable regions and groups. While the GCMs are generally consistent in their predictions of higher

temperatures globally, they differ dramatically in the precipitation outcomes. Crop models are able to

accurately reproduce crop responses to weather and temperature inputs within existing ranges, but their

ability to perform in the range of future outcomes is much less certain. And they perform poorly in

assessing the effects of changing pest and disease pressures that might arise from climate change.

Models of socioeconomic scenarios, especially those that include climate change effects, are in some

ways more complicated than either climate or crop models. They must take into account biophysical

effects and include them as part of the complex behavior of human systems. In many ways they are the

weakest link in our understanding of the vulnerability of food systems to climate change.

Finally all of these modeling efforts suffer from the poor state of data resources available on human and

natural systems on our planet.

2.8 Policy Messages

Weaknesses in all three types of models – climate, crop and socioeconomic – used to construct

scenarios of the effects of climate change and other drivers on the vulnerable mean great uncertainty at

global, national and local scales about policy and program responses to climate change. Significant


26

efforts are needed to improve the functionality of these models individuals as well as their interactions. In

addition, the data needed to construct these models are of poor quality and data collection efforts need

significant resources.

Climate change effects on the vulnerable are significant but are by no means the only threats to

sustainable food security. Sustainable development efforts that lead to broad-based economic growth are

essential to addressing the needs of vulnerable people and regions. Given the uncertainties in local and

regional outcomes of climate change, policies and programs that are based on specific climate scenarios

could potentially be counterproductive. Rather efforts should be based on activities that provide both

sustainable economic growth and increase resiliency to a wide range of potential climate change threats

are most appropriate. This combination of policy goals has sometimes been referred to as climate-smart

agriculture. An added element, discussed in the next chapter, is to develop and disseminate practices

that reduce the growth in emissions from agriculture, low-emissions development strategies.

27

3 CHAPTER 3: ADAPTATION: RESPONSE OPTIONS FOR

FOOD SECURITY CHALLENGES FROM CLIMATE CHANGE

[This chapter currently is in annotated outline form. The writing team would like feedback on whether we

have identified the relevant topics to be covered.]

3.1 Introduction

• Adaptation is the response by different actors to present and future threats and opportunities from

climate change. We interpret it to mean adjusting the social, economic and biophysical aspects

of food production to respond to the threats (and opportunities) of climate change and to increase

resilience in the face of greater climate variability. The report recognizes the particular adaptation

needs and vulnerabilities of the poorest regions and populations

• The food system has always adapted to changing circumstances and adaptation to a new climate

is a specific example of a broader range of responses to change that agriculture will confront in

the coming years, in particular the serious current challenges posed by poverty and inequalities,

and on other hand, the growth in income and population in today’s developing countries

• Autonomous versus planned, and reactive versus anticipatory, adaptation

• Adaptation to climate change involves general measures that increase the resilience of the food

system (interpreted broadly to mean production, processing, distribution and retail) to any

perturbation, as well as specific measures to cope with the particular stresses caused by the

changing climate.

• Successful adaptation will require new practices and alterations in livelihood strategies. It will also

require changes of behaviour by all elements of the private sector, retailers and intermediaries in

the food chain, agri-business and the financial sector. It will require action by governments and

international organisations, and also by civil society, in particular those concerned with food

security, hunger and development.

• It involves identifying present vulnerabilities and potential opportunities, promoting the better

utilisation and dissemination of existing information and knowledge including local knowledge and

alternative practices, investing in the generation of new information and local innovation, as well

as reforms to the national and international governance of the food system

• Adaptation and mitigation efforts cannot be fully effective unless women’s roles in the food

system are recognized; their constraints and concerns integrated in climate change strategies

through women’s engagement and participation as a key stakeholder. At the same time it is also

a mistake to treat women as a homogenous group; interventions to increase resilience and

reduce vulnerability will have to be contextual in approach (Terry 2009). While women are

generally more vulnerable to climate shocks, a truly gendered approach is essential to ensure

that vulnerable men are also included in any analysis of adaptation and mitigation.

• Adaptation strategies that are not gender sensitive are problematic on several fronts. They may serve

to exacerbate existing inequalities between men and women within households and communities.

High temperature resistant varieties of crops are usually water intensive which could add to women’s

burdens (UNDP 2009). Men and women have differential perception of climate change risks. Thus,


28

women’s priorities may not be addressed if they are not participating in the planning stage.

Furthermore, it is possible that sub-optimal adaptation strategies are adopted by households to

preserve existing gender norms as opposed to risk minimization.

• Overview of rest of chapter

3.2 Lessons from recent adaptation

• Recent increases in global temperature that can be attributed to anthropogenic greenhouse gas

emissions have already led to some changes in agricultural practices, though these are as yet

relatively minor and also affected by other drivers. Examples include the northward shift in maize

production in the U.S. and rice production in China. Do these provide useful models of

adaptation, and its limits?

• The response to some recent non-climate change events may help planning for adaptation. For

example, some regions have recently seen drastic reductions in the water available for agriculture

due to the exhaustion of aquifers. The response to this may inform the response to future

reductions in precipitation.

• To what degree have private, national and international research agendas been realigned to

address adaptation? What further changes are needed?

3.3 Anticipatory strategies and options for adapting to climate

change

• The focus in this section should be activities that contribute to sustainable food security while

creating and supporting resilient livelihoods for people engaged in agriculture

3.3.1 Availability

• In the context of crop production, farmers will need to adopt various anticipatory strategies:

Planting different varieties or species of crops

Sowing crops at different times of year

Changing irrigation practices (including water conservation, use of marginal resources,

rainwater harvesting and capture)

Altering agronomic practices (for example reduced tillage to reduce water loss,

incorporation of manures and compost, and other land use techniques such as cover

cropping that increase soil organic matter and hence water retention of value both in

times of drought and flood).

• It is not yet possible to attribute unambiguously increased frequencies of extreme events

(droughts, floods or hurricanes) to anthropogenic climate change but nevertheless responses to

recent catastrophes may help prepare for what models predict is very likely to be an early

consequence of climate change.


29

Response to hurricanes and typhoons. In Nicaragua, after the passage of Hurricane Mitch in

1998, a study showed how agroecological practices such as crop rotation, green manure,

use of natural fertilizers, cover ditches, crop diversification, burning renunciation, etc.

preserved an average of 40% more topsoil, had greater moisture retention, and lost 18% less

arable land (Holt-Gimenéz cited in de Schutter, 2010)

Humanitarian responses to drought and floods

Changing post-harvest practices such as grain drying and storage procedures

• Similar challenges will face livestock producers whose breeds will be directly affected by climate

change and indirectly through effects on feedstocks and forage

There are particular issues for pastoralist communities in semi-desert environments which

are likely to be particularly susceptible to climate change; for example traditional

transhumance routes may no longer be feasible

Adaptation strategies for ruminants (involving for example husbandry, diets and stocking

ratios) in some types of production systems should seek simultaneously to reduce their role

as a major source of GHGs, a topic covered in Chapter 4.

• Climate change is likely to see the opening up of new fisheries (for example in the increasingly

ice-free arctic oceans) as well as movements of existing fisheries [S American sardines?]. Those

working in capture fisheries will need to be aware of and be able to respond to these changes.

• Food producers will need to be aware of the increased risks of rare events and how they can

reduce their damaging effects

Drought

Floods, salt water intrusion, storms

Effects of fire which may be directly affected by climate change as well as indirectly by

mitigation policies such as increased agroforestry

• Because of the multifaceted nature of adaptation and the breadth of responses related to

increasing livelihood resilience, useful assistance to producers may take many forms.

Economic diversification for increasing livelihood options

Weather early warning systems

Agricultural extension

Infrastructure, such as roads, post-harvest storage, markets

• There are many initiatives towards improving the resilience of agricultural livelihoods already

underway that should be examined. The CG system is doing x, development organizations are

doing y, bilateral and multilateral donors are doing z.

• Special emphasis is placed on the food security needs of the most vulnerable


30

• Encourage women’s leadership in adaptation and mitigation planning and decision making at all

levels including national level planning for climate change.

• The environmental costs of converting land to agriculture are increasingly large everywhere

(especially in terms of greenhouse emissions, discussed in Chapter 4) so adaptation strategies

that result in more land conversion are likely to especially costly. It is likely that more food will

need to be produced from the same amount of land with less impact on the environment.

• More food can be produced on existing farmland using existing knowledge if food producers are

provided with the resources to respond to price signals and if appropriate investments are

undertaken in economic and physical infrastructure (market reform and access to markets).

Special attention should be paid to encouraging that women are not disadvantaged, both for

efficiency and equity reasons.

• Investment in research is needed into producing crops, animals, and fish with higher yields,

higher input efficiencies, and ability to withstand more frequent extreme events. This will require

more funding of often neglected subjects such as agronomy and soil science that can improve

productivity, resilience and efficiency

• Advantage should be taken of “leap-frogging” technologies to allow low-income country food

systems to jump to modern sustainable practices that are more resilient to climate change and

spread existing farmer practices that have worked in one location to areas with similar

environmental profiles today or likely profiles in the future as climate change progresses. Women

are often at the forefront of natural resource management. This knowledge should be harnessed.

• The rules governing international trade in food as well as issues of subsidies, tariffs and import

restrictions need to adjusted to facilitate the likely increase in food supply shocks in different parts

of the world.

• There is a great need for revitalised extension services that provide advice and training that

includes climate change adaptation. In developed countries there are good models of joint

public-private funded extension services that already see adaptation as part of their brief, while in

least developed countries initiatives such as farmer-field schools could be extended to include

more adaptation strategies (noting there are many other advantages of these extension models

today). Information exchange at local, regional and global levels is critical.

• Measures can be taken to reduce global food price volatility (see CFS HLPE ##).

3.3.2 Access

• Lack of access to food is economic, although social exclusion (for example on grounds of gender,

class or caste) is also a dimension of access or lack thereof. The access pillar of food security

also includes preference, where social or cultural preferences cannot be satisfied. War and civil

unrest and other physical barriers can also impede or reduce access to food.

• Investment in agriculture and the larger rural economy has a key role in economic development

as it leads to more food, increased rural incomes, and often to the improved well-being of groups

such as women that are hard to reach through other interventions. Decades of lack of investment

in low-income country agriculture needs to be reversed.


31

• Special attention needs to be paid to reducing excess price volatility, especially where it affects

the most vulnerable communities

• Low-income countries with poorly developed markets are likely to require some protection from

exposure to world markets (special measures in WTO parlance) and should be given time to

transition to full participation in the global food system.

• Foreign investment can bring much needed capital to food production in poor countries, but too

often takes the form of “land grabs” which are poorly transparent and fails to respect local land

rights or exploits the lack of developed land rights in many least developed countries, especially

in Africa.

• The challenges of maintaining food supplies to larger urban populations in least developed

countries needs particular attention.

• Safety nets will continue to be required to help countries experiencing famine. Looking to the

future increasing frequencies of extreme events (including from climate change but possibly from

other sources) may increase the risk of famine, though sustainable development if successful

3.3.3 Use

• Levels of consumption of food with high input demands are environmentally unsustainable and

often are damaging to human health. Research is needed on levers of demand modification.

Informed debate on issues of consumption needs to be facilitated amongst all consumers.

3.3.4 Stability

• In some production systems, insurance can be a means of buffering against loss due to the likely

increasing likelihood of extreme events.

• In developing countries where financial insurance may not be available or be too expensive, or in

production systems where insurance might not be appropriate, other risk reduction mechanisms

must be prioritized.

3.4 Sectoral approaches to adaptation

3.4.1 The private sector

3.4.1.1 Agribusiness

• To take a long-term view of investment in food production and to commit resources to producing

crops and livestock breeds better able to withstand the challenges of a changing climate

• To develop mutually beneficial new methods of working with smallholder food producers where

some of the risk of increased climate variability is borne by the private sector


32

3.4.1.2 Food chain & retail

• Prepare for the increased frequency of extreme events with broader geographical extent, with the

consequent need to

• Diversify sourcing

• Modify where necessary “just-in-time” stocking to allow greater resilience in the food chain

3.4.1.3 Financial sector

• Innovation in insurance for food production in least developed countries, both for individual food

producers (via microfinance initiatives) and for governments (sovereign insurance). Ensure that

programs are not biased against women.

• Develop (in partnership with regulatory authorities) economically efficient commodity market

trading mechanisms that are designed to damp rather than amplify the volatility caused by

climatic production shocks

• In partnership with national and international development and green banks to develop

mechanisms for attracting capital into investment in climate change adaptation.

• See also insights from the CFS study on price volatility

3.4.2 Governments and international organizations

• Provide the information base and risk assessment that allows good policy to be developed

• Improve information gathering, monitoring, data analysis and dissemination making use of

transformational ICT technologies

• Invest in cost-effective civil engineering projects to increase protection of agricultural lands from

extreme events. In cases where such investment is uneconomic land use planning will be

required to foster types of agriculture more resilient to climate variability. Ensure infrastructure

investment for agriculture and agricultural markets is resilient to climate change.

• Develop integrated land-use policies, in particular to optimise the use of scarce water resources

at catchment and aquifer scale. Adaptive management procedures need to be developed, and

the legal and treaty basis to deal with trans-boundary conflicts put into place

• Contribute to increasing the skills base to allow food producers to adapt to climate change

• Invest in the fundamental and applied research base to improve climate change adaptation

(including through animal and plant breeding, agricultural engineering, agronomy and husbandry,

soil science, aquiculture, agricultural economics and the relevant social sciences).

• Increase resilience by provision of safety nets to farmers and others whose livelihoods are at risk

due to climate change; ensure that any interventions are non-discriminatory to vulnerable groups

• Develop national disaster management policies, including insurance schemes for farmers to

protect against natural disasters


33

3.4.3 The research community

• In addition to the general need for better climate models, there is a particularly urgent need for

improved impact models, and for a better comparative understanding of the outputs of current

models.

• There must be a continued refocusing of research from just higher yield to a more complex set

traits to optimise, in particular increased efficiency and increased resilience.

• Climate change will require crops with enhanced resistance to drought, flooding and salt-water

intrusion (both through seawater flooding and from groundwater).

o Methane emissions from flooded rice crops is a major GHG while rice yields will be affected by

drought and salt water intrusion. This is an example where research to address adaptation and mitigation

simultaneously is critical.

• The response of crop and livestock biotic stressors (for example weeds, pests, pathogens and

diseases) to climate change will be complex and affected by other drivers, in particular how land use

change affects the emergence of new diseases and other problems, and how globalisation increases the

risk of the movement of harmful species throughout the globe. Development of varieties and breeds with

enhanced resistance is a general good but the research base must be capable of reacting quickly to

novel and unexpected biotic challenges that will arise for many reasons including climate change.

• Increasing resilience through the development of new agronomic strategies

o Scalable forms of precision agriculture

o New forms of mixed cropping, livestock/crop integration and terrestrial/aquacultural integration to

provide food security to low income farmers in a more variable climate

• There is a joint social and natural science challenge to understand the role of traditional foods (for

example millets) in providing nutritional diversity and better diets, and how this may be affected by climate

change and what adaptation strategies are possible.

• The possible effects of climate change on capture fisheries is poorly understood, and research on

this and how climate change should be integrated into ecosystem and adaptive management approaches

to fisheries is required

Civil society

• By civil society we mean national and international NGOs, social movements and organizations,

workers unions, gender organizations. To act as advocates for the critical needs of the food system to

adapt to climate change, and to champion the rights and needs of those whose voices are less likely to

be heard through

• For major humanitarian NGOs to invest in agricultural adaptation as part of their strategies for

sustainable development, and in partnership with governmental organisations to plan for the

consequences of the increased frequency of extreme events

• As some major foundations have pioneered in recent years, to develop innovative partnerships

with the private sector to translate advances in science into products and interventions that benefit, and

can be afforded by, low-income food producers.


34

Cross-cutting issues

• Ensure adaptation measures provide multiple benefits; for example that also contribute towards

mitigation, improve rural incomes, foster sustainable development, empower women and disadvantaged

minorities.

• An enhanced and more informed debate about the risks of climate change and the need for

adaptation is needed amongst civil society. Such discourse will be essential to allow national and

international decision makers to make investments, especially at times of austerity, that will ensure food

security in future decades.

Policy Messages

• General food system policies designed to ensure demand does not outstrip supply, that national

and international governance of the food system is improved, that price volatility is constrained within

acceptable limits, that waste is reduced, and that the food system is made more sustainable will all result

in a more resilient food system, better able to withstand climate change shocks.

• The communities whose food security is most at risk from the effects of climate change will most

often be in least developed countries, be the poorest sections of rich societies, and will be groups

disadvantaged in some societies, for example because of gender. Climate-change adaptation needs to

be especially tailored to these groups.

• The likelihood of the world acting together to keep average temperature rises below 2°C is small

and decreasing and rises of the order of 4°C are more likely. Though climate change will benefit food

production in some areas the net effect over all regions is likely to be very negative. There is much that

can be done to adapt agriculture to changing climate using existing knowledge about the social, economic

and biophysical aspects of food production, and dissemination and implementation of this knowledge is

critical. However, the magnitude and pace of the changes likely to occur will also require new knowledge

and investment in the relative social and natural sciences should be a priority.

• Successfully adaptation of global agriculture and the food system to expected climate change will

require mobilisation of the most effective practices from all modes of agriculture, realising that no signal

solution or set of solutions will be appropriate everywhere. Techniques drawn from conventional, agro-

ecological, organic and high-technology food production will all need to be deployed. A pluralistic,

evidence-based approach, sensitive to environmental and social context, and to different value systems,

is essential.

35

4 AGRICULTURAL MITIGATION OF GREENHOUSE GAS

EMISSIONS

4.1 Introduction

As Chapter 1 reported, crop and livestock agriculture globally is responsible for about 15 percent of total

emissions today and land use change (especially deforestation), much of which is driven by expansion of

agricultural area, adds another 15 to 17 percent. Although developing country emissions are low today as

Chapter 1 reported, their agricultural and land use change emissions will likely grow rapidly unless low-

emissions strategies that also contribute to sustainable food security are actively pursued. Agriculture is

unique in that some practices can capture CO2 emissions from other sectors and sequester carbon above

and below-ground. Most of these practices can also contribute to food security and resilience, and if

targeted properly can contribute to poverty reduction. This chapter discusses the contribution of

agriculture to total GHG emissions and the role of mitigation options in agriculture both to meet growing

food demand and reduce deforestation, and synergies and tradeoffs of mitigation and adaptation

activities.

4.2 Agriculture’s contribution to greenhouse gas emissions

Agricultural activities emit greenhouse gases in three ways – direct and indirect24

emissions from

agricultural practices, and land use change caused by expansion of agricultural activities. Direct

emissions from agricultural production include CH4 emissions from flooded rice fields and livestock, N2O

emissions from the use of nitrogenous fertilizers, and CO2 emissions from loss of soil organic carbon in

croplands as a result of agricultural practices and in pastures as a result of increased grazing intensity.

This chapter focuses on direct emissions and land use change as these constitute the bulk of agriculture-

based emissions.

With past expansion of agricultural area, substantial CO2 emissions occurred from soils rich in organic

carbon and with farming practices that resulted in conversion of organic carbon to CO2. Today, net direct

CO2 emissions from agricultural activities are estimated to be very small globally but land use change

driven by agricultural expansion still contributes sizeable CO2 emissions, both from above and below

ground sources. Thus, unlike other sectors such as energy supply, industry, and transport, in which GHG

emissions are dominated by CO2, direct agricultural emissions of GHGs are dominated by CH4 and N2O.

Farming practices can reduce or increase the amount of carbon sequestered in a field. Net CO2

emissions from croplands are expected in the regions where agricultural management is extensive and

input of organic materials cannot balance decomposition. These management practices also lead to

reduced resilience since soil organic matter holds nutrients and soil moisture, making it available over

longer periods of time. Since the late 1970s, soil organic carbon has increased in some parts of the world

with growing nutrient inputs, breeding advances and improvements in management (Cai, 2012). For

example, in China soil organic carbon in croplands increased by about 400 Tg C during the period of

24

Indirect emissions include CO2 from production and transport of fertilizers, herbicides, pesticides, and

from energy consumption for tillage, irrigation, fertilization, and harvest. In GHG accounting, indirect

agricultural emissions are included in emissions from the other sectors (industry, transport, and energy

supply). Only direct emissions from agricultural production are classified as agricultural emissions in the

IPCC accounting framework.


36

1980-2000 (Huang & Sun, 2006). A similar trend was observed in the United States (Ogle et al., 2010).

The technical potential for increasing soil carbon (and improving soil quality) is discussed below. An

important policy message is of the importance of finding and getting farmers to adopt practices that can

increase carbon sequestration and reduce the rate of conversion of forests to cultivated areas, without

harming food security.

Agricultural CH4 emissions accounted for more than 50 percent of CH4 emissions from human activities

(IPCC, 2007). Agricultural CH4 emissions today are roughly one third from flooded rice production (28-44

Tg CH4 yr-1

), and two thirds from ruminants (73-94 Tg CH4 yr-1

).25

Monsoon Asia produces more than 90

percent of global rice production, thus accounting for an equivalent share of CH4 emissions from the

world’s rice fields. Since harvested area of irrigated rice is growing slowly, the increase in CH4 emissions

from rice fields is expected to be small. Furthermore, rice fields are converted at least partially from

wetlands, which also emit CH4, but are classified into natural emissions. Hence, the effective net

emissions growth from irrigated rice will be even smaller than IPCC estimates.

In addition to their effects on N2O emissions (discussed below), nitrogen-based fertilizers, particularly

ammonium fertilizers, inhibit the CH4 oxidation by soils, contributing to the increase in atmospheric CH4

concentration.

In the future, most increases in agricultural CH4 emissions are likely to be ruminant-based. Ruminant

numbers increased substantially in the last 50 years, particularly in East Asia, and are expected to further

increase, especially in developing countries. Population growth of all kinds of animals means an increase

in animal manure, which is another important source of CH4. Hence policies and programs to manage

livestock CH4 emissions will be particularly important.

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an intermediate product or a by-product of nitrogen transformation processes.

Agriculture accounts for more than 60 percent of anthropogenic N2O emissions (IPCC, 2007). On

average, about 1 percent of N applied to soil is emitted directly as N2O (IPCC, 2007a). Both chemical and

organic nitrogen fertilization results in N2O emissions, with emission rates varying by cropping systems,

climate, and other variables. For example, the rate varies from near zero in some soils to 22 percent in an

Australian sulfate acid soil (Denmead et al., 2007). In flooded rice fields the emissions rate is only about

one third of that in uplands. N2O emissions increase with precipitation (Lu et al., 2006). N2O is also

produced and emitted from nitrogen lost from agricultural lands through runoff, leaching, NH3

volatilization, and dissolved organic nitrogen. N2O emissions from nitrogen lost from croplands are called

indirect emissions and are estimated to be similar in magnitude to direct emissions. Animals do not

directly emit N2O, but livestock manure is a substantial source of N2O emissions, another reason for the

importance of managing livestock to reduce emissions.

4.3 GHG emissions from land use change

Terrestrial ecosystems, including above- and below-ground components are a huge carbon pool. A recent

estimate is that 350-550 Pg C is stored in vegetation (Prentice et al., 2001) and 1500-2400 Pg C in soil

(Batjes, 1996). There is a very large annual CO2 exchange between terrestrial ecosystems and the

atmosphere, thought to be 123 Pg C. Therefore, a small change in carbon storage in terrestrial

ecosystems or in CO2 exchange rate between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere will result in a

substantial change in the atmospheric CO2 concentration.

25

Animal manure is another substantial source of CH4, but estimated emissions vary greatly with

assumptions about management and duration of storage.


37

The input and output of CO2 between stable ecosystems and the atmosphere is almost balanced, but

land use change disrupts this balance. Converting natural ecosystems, particularly forestlands, wetlands

and peatlands, which are rich in organic carbon, to agriculture and pasture use results in losses of carbon

not only due to the removal of above ground biomass, but also conversion of soil organic matter.

Generally, carbon in the top layer of soil decreases about 40-70 percent of the original when a new

equilibrium is established after converting a natural soil into cropland soil. Total CO2 emissions due to

land use change are estimated at approximately 156 Pg C during the period of 1850-2000 (Houghton,

2003).

Land use change also influences the emissions of CH4 and N2O. It has been estimated that CH4

emissions have been reduced by 10 percent due to the area reduction of wetlands (Houweling et al.,

2003). Converting land to flooded rice production increases CH4 emissions, both because non-irrigated

lands extract CH4 from the atmosphere (estimated to be 30 Tg CH4 yr-1

) and anaerobic decomposition in

flooded rice production releases CH4. N2O emissions also increase when natural ecosystems are

converted into croplands or pasture but no reliable estimates of their magnitude exist.

The dramatic effect of land use change on GHG emissions26

emphasizes the importance of finding

agricultural development strategies that reduce the conversion of non-agricultural land to agricultural

activities.

4.4 Mitigation options in agriculture

The IPCC (2007) estimates a technical mitigation potential globally of 5.5-6.0 Pg CO2-eq yr-1

from

agriculture by 2030. Soil carbon sequestration accounts for 89 percent of this potential. The carbon sink

capacity of the world's agricultural and degraded soils was estimated to be 50 to 66 percent of the historic

carbon loss (Lal, 2004). Techniques to exploit this on-farm potential include:

Increasing organic inputs into croplands such as crop residue incorporation and application of organic manure

Reduction of soil disturbances with practices such as less or no tillage, and reducing grazing intensity

Restoration of degraded croplands with practices such as erosion control, set-aside, and land use change

Re-flooding of peatlands

Increase in crop yields by good managements of nutrients and irrigation.

Agroforestry Essentially each of these practices can also increase productivity and climate change resilience. It is

important to devise public policies and programs that reduce existing disincentives and provide innovative

incentives to development and dissemination of specific practices of relevance to those in charge of farm

operations.

Mitigation of CH4 emissions from agriculture contributes about 9 percent of the technical agricultural

mitigation potential (IPCC, 2007). Avoiding water saturation in the non-rice growth season and shortening

continuous flooding duration during the rice growing season are the most effective options for mitigating

CH4 emissions from rice fields. Mid-season drainage is a practice to interrupt continuous flooding.

Delaying incorporation of fresh organic matter until after flooding and incorporation of fresh organic matter

in the off-rice season reduces CH4 emissions from rice fields effectively. It is estimated that 4.1 Tg CH4 yr-

26

Other negative consequences include loss of biodiversity and changes in ground and surface water

availability.


38

1 could be mitigated if fields were drained at least once during the growing season, and a further 4.1 Tg

CH4 yr-1

if rice straw was applied off season (Yan, et al. 2009). Selection of rice cultivars with low root

exudation rates could also be an option for mitigating CH4 emissions from rice fields.

IRRI is working with national research institutes and farmers in South and Southeast Asia on alternate

wetting and drying practices in irrigated rice fields to reduce CH4 emissions. The SRI (System of Rice

Intensification) system in India reduces the amount of flooding of irrigated rice, likely reducing methane

emissions as well as saving water and possibly reducing N2O emissions.

It does not appear to be easy to mitigate CH4 emissions from ruminants on a per animal basis, but

improving feeding practices and pasture productivity, adding feeding specific agents and dietary

additives, and animal breeding would mitigate CH4 emissions per unit of livestock product (milk and

meat). There is substantial potential for mitigating CH4 emissions from animal manures. Aeration of

animal manure during storage and shortening of manure storage are effective ways to mitigate CH4

emissions from animal manures.

IPCC (2007) estimates that the technical mitigation of N2O emissions from agriculture is a small share of

(2 percent) of the estimated total agricultural mitigation potential. Increasing the efficiency of use of

nitrogen fertilizers would allow reduction in use. This would mitigate N2O emissions from crop production

maintain or even increase crop yields. And increasing nitrogen use efficiency also reduces the emissions

associated with production of nitrogenous fertilizer. Alternating dry and wet soil is a key driver of N

transformations to N2O in irrigated fields so avoiding unnecessary irrigation and drainage will reduce N2O

emissions from irrigated croplands. Application of nitrification inhibitors with N fertilizers has also been

demonstrated to be effective. The effects of controlled or slow release fertilizers on N2O emissions are

uncertain.

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) strategies need to take into

account equity issues as well as men and women’s differentiated dependence on forest resources. It is

estimated that globally, more than 1.6 billion people depend upon forests as their main source of

livelihood (World Bank, 2008). Women are more dependent than men are on forests and natural

resources but at the same time suffer from a lack of secure property rights and from systematic

discrimination in access to services. In several regions of the world, women’s roles include conservation

and maintenance of forest resources which provides an opportunity through the REDD mechanism to

compensate and provide support to their efforts. There may also be employment opportunities for women

within the REDD framework (A concern, however, is that women may not be a position to take full

advantage of the benefits offered by REDD due to their lower literacy and formal education skills (UNDP

2009).

Women’s participation in climate change negotiations and decision making has been low due to several

factors -- their low levels of education, limited access to information, poor visibility in public spaces, and

general exclusion from political processes (several studies cited in Brown 2011). While increasing

women’s engagement in mitigation strategies could lead to improved outcomes, Mwangi et al (2011)

suggests that mixed-sex groups could be one solution for strengthening forest management.

4.5 Synergies and tradeoffs between adaptation and mitigation

Synergies and tradeoffs are common in agricultural sector. Therefore, before adaption or mitigation

options are put into practice, the effects on climate change and food security shall be evaluated

comprehensively and in lifetime.


39

Some synergies and tradeoffs have been observed in the adaption to climate change. For instance, with

the increase in temperature, rice production is shifted from south to north in China. This farmers’

spontaneous adaptation makes a great contribution to food security in China. However, it makes water

shortage even more serious in Northeastern China.

[Discussion of the pros and cons of biofuels to be added about here.]

Increasing soil organic carbon storage by good management practices is generally synergistic because it

both captures atmospheric CO2 and increases soil fertility. However, in the case of flooded rice fields, an

increase in soil organic carbon would increase CH4 emissions, particularly if the soil organic carbon is

increased by incorporation of crop straw. Re-flooding peatlands or wetlands could prevent depletion of

organic matter, but stimulate CH4 emissions.

Irrigation management regimes that increase CH4 emissions reduce N2O emissions and vice versa. For

example, mid-season drainage mitigates CH4 emissions, but increases N2O emissions. However, even

though N2O has a higher global warming potential (GWP), the increase in N2O is not enough to offset the

reduction in GWP from methane.

Nitrogen fertilization dominates anthropogenic N2O emissions from agricultural sector. However, long-

term experiments showed that synthetic fertilizer N significantly reduces the declining rate of soil organic

carbon in agricultural soils (Ladha et al., 2011).

To meet the growing demand, food production must increase either by improving crop yields from the

land already under cultivation (intensification) or expanding land area cultivated (extensification) or both.

All these options for meeting food demands will increase GHGs emissions. Relatively, intensification,

however, is more effective to mitigate the increase in GHG emissions from agriculture (Burney et al.,

2010).

4.6 Policy messages

Developing country agricultural and land use change emissions will likely grow rapidly unless low-

emissions strategies that also contribute to sustainable food security are actively pursued. Agriculture is

unique in that some practices can capture CO2 emissions from other sectors and sequester carbon above

and below-ground. GHG emissions from agriculture can be mitigated by good management practices and

essentially every one of these practices can also increase productivity and climate change resilience. It is

important to devise national and international policies and programs that reduce existing disincentives

and provide innovative incentives to development and dissemination of specific practices of relevance to

those in charge of farm operations. It is also important to develop and disseminate practices that can

increase carbon sequestration and reduce the rate of conversion of forests to cultivated areas, without

harming food security. The dramatic effect of land use change on GHG emissions emphasizes the

importance of finding agricultural development strategies that reduce the conversion of non-agricultural

land to agricultural activities.

Since demand for livestock products (meat, milk, and eggs) will likely grow, policies and programs that

directly or indirectly contribute to reduced emissions of both CH4 and N2O per unit of output are especially

important.

Policies and programs that increase nitrogen use efficiency have multiple benefits – reducing farm input

costs, direct and indirect GHG emissions, and off-farm damage to the environment.

40

5 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR POLICIES AND ACTIONS

5.1 Introduction

In a report of this nature, it is not possible to provide detailed policy recommendations for specific

countries, regions, or groups. Actions that are entirely appropriate in some locations and countries would

be completely inappropriate in others. Instead we present a series of policy messages that are intended

to provide guidance for developing nationally-relevant policies and programs and that can also assist

international efforts.

5.2 Climate change responses should be complementary to, not

independent of, activities that are needed for sustainable food

security

Programs and policies to deal with climate change must be part of efforts to reduce poverty and enhance

food security. Attempts to address climate change vulnerability that are undertaken independently risk

using resources inefficiently and losing opportunities for synergies. At the same time, climate change

brings unique challenges that require modifications to existing food security efforts.

Meeting food security goals will substantially more investments in public sector research and extension.

Climate change will mean both that additional research outputs will be needed to offset its general

productivity reducing effects, to maintain productivity in the face of more frequent extreme events, and to

adjust to differing responses of crops, livestock, and management systems to climate change. There is an

urgent need to undertake these investments quickly, because of improvements will take time to

development and deliver to farmers.

To make sure that productivity and resilience enhancing technologies are adopted, extension programs

should target those who are making the management decisions, which in many cases are women. This is

important for enhancing food security generally but becomes more important in the case of climate

change as women’s activities and livelihoods are likely to be disproportionately affected. Small-scale

farms account for a large share of global agricultural land use, and rural employment today, and often are

operated by women. They are more likely to engage in mixed crop and livestock agriculture, which might

be more resilient to climate change. Private sector research is more likely to benefit large-scale farms.

Policies and public investments that address the limits facing small-scale farmers, and that ensure women

have opportunities for equal access to information and resources will have important productivity,

resiliency and poverty-reducing benefits for food security generally and for dealing with climate change.

The differential effects of climate change on crops will likely alter the optimal design of extension systems.

Vulnerable communities need special attention in efforts to enhance food security. Climate change is

likely to bring more negative shocks (droughts, floods, crop failure). The burden is likely to be borne

disproportionately by women and girls so there are both efficiency and welfare reasons for targeting food

security programs generally and climate-change-specific activities to women.


41

5.3 Climate change adaptation and mitigation require national

activities and global coordination

Climate change adaptation and mitigation activities in agriculture must be implemented on millions of

farms and undertaken by people who are often the most vulnerable. Local lessons learned are most

valuable when shared. Supporting activities require global coordination as well as national programs.

5.3.1 Adaptation

Climate change will shift existing climates to new locations across political boundaries as well as create

climates that don’t currently exist. Shifting existing cultivars and animals to new locations requires an

understanding of how existing genetic material performs under a wide range of agroclimatic conditions,

improved understanding of technical attributes, global information sharing and the institutional

mechanisms to move genetic material across borders.

The communities whose food security is most at risk from the effects of climate change will most often be

in least developed countries, be the poorest sections of rich societies, and will be groups disadvantaged

in some societies, for example because of gender. Climate-change adaptation needs to be especially

tailored to these groups.

There is much that can be done to adapt agriculture to changing climate using existing knowledge about

the social, economic and biophysical aspects of food production, and dissemination and implementation

of this knowledge is critical. However, the magnitude and pace of the changes likely to occur will also

require new knowledge and investment in the relevant social and natural sciences should be a priority.

Successful adaptation of global agriculture and the food system to climate change will require

mobilisation of the most effective practices from all modes of agriculture, realising that no single solution

or set of solutions will be appropriate everywhere. Techniques drawn from conventional, agro-ecological,

organic and high-technology food production will all need to be evaluated for their location-specific

appropriateness. A pluralistic, evidence-based approach, sensitive to environmental and social context,

and to different value systems, is essential.

Environmentally sustainable food production requires practices that can be continued indefinitely into the

future without undermining the capacity of the land to produce food or resulting in the continued

degradation of the environment. The search for these practices, and incorporating the effects of climate

change, is essential in this search for sustainable food security.

5.3.2 Mitigation

Meeting any of the emissions goals of recent UNFCCC meetings will require both reductions in emissions

from Annex 1 countries and reductions in emissions growth in non-Annex 1 countries. Mitigation activities

should be undertaken where the costs, both financial and in terms of sustainable food security, are lowest

and the benefits the highest. This might result in mitigation activities being undertaken in countries with

relatively low historical or current emissions. While emissions are currently low in developing countries,

they are likely to grow rapidly unless low-emissions development strategies are followed. These are likely

to be much less costly to implement as part of general development efforts today than done later and

independently. Public policies that support mitigation in agriculture are an essential element of ensuring

globally-efficient mitigation activities. It is also important to support the creation of market based

mechanisms.


42

GHG emissions from agriculture can be mitigated by good management practices that in many cases also

increase productivity and enhance resilience. Public policies and programs should target these win-win

outcomes. Improving crop yields from the land already under cultivation is generally more effective to

mitigate GHGs emissions from agriculture than expanding cultivated land area. Emissions associated with

ruminant agriculture are likely to grow rapidly unless technologies become available to farmers that allow

them to reduce substantially the GHG emissions per unit of output (meat and milk). Policies and programs

that increase nitrogen use efficiency have multiple benefits – reducing farm input costs direct and indirect

GHG emissions, and off-farm damage to the environment.

5.4 Public-public and public-private partnerships are essential

Both public-public and public-private partnerships are essential to address all elements of the coming

challenges to food security from climate change in equitable and efficient ways. This will require greater

transparency and new roles for all elements of society, including the private sector and civil society.

Information and other exchanges among national governments on best practices and public technologies

should be enhanced.

The private sector, including farmers, traders, input suppliers, and seed companies are the actors who

undertake adaptation and mitigation activities. Partnerships between the private and public sectors will

make it more likely that public policies and programs will be designed appropriately to address climate

change challenges.

Transparency in public sector decision-making about adaptation and mitigation policies and programs is

crucial. Participation by the private sector gives them a voice on design that fosters efficient use of

resources. Participation by civil society allows other groups that might be affected by climate change,

either directly or through the actions of others, to be better informed about potential outcomes, and to

steer the process towards more equitable outcomes.


43

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Appendix: Glossary This draft glossary draws from the glossary in the IPCC AR4 synthesis report and then adds new terms and edits

existing terms. Changes are indicated with a yellow highlight.

Source: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr_appendix.pdf

A.

Adaptation Initiatives and measures to reduce the vulnerability of natural and human systems against actual or expected climate

change effects. Various types of adaptation exist, e.g. anticipatory and reactive, private and public, and autonomous

and planned. Examples are raising river or coastal dikes, the substitution of more temperature-shock resistant plants

for sensitive ones, etc.

Adaptive capacity The whole of capabilities, resources and institutions of a country or region to implement effective adaptation

measures.

Afforestation Planting of new forests on lands that historically have not contained forests (for at least 50 years). For a discussion of

the term forest and related terms such as afforestation, reforestation, and deforestation see the IPCC Report on Land

Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (IPCC, 2000). See also the Report on Definitions and Methodological Options to

Inventory Emissions from Direct Human-induced Degradation of Forests and Devegetation of Other Vegetation Types

(IPCC, 2003).

Anthropogenic emissions

Emissions of greenhouse gases, greenhouse gas precursors, and aerosols associated with human activities,

including the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, land-use changes, livestock, fertilisation, etc.

Arid region

A land region of low rainfall, where low is widely accepted to be <250 mm precipitation per year.

Atmosphere The gaseous envelope surrounding the Earth. The dry atmosphere consists almost entirely of nitrogen (78.1%

volume mixing ratio) and oxygen (20.9% volume mixing ratio), together with a number of trace gases, such as argon

(0.93% volume mixing ratio), helium and radiatively active greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (0.035%

volume mixing ratio) and ozone. In addition, the atmosphere contains the greenhouse gas water vapour, whose

amounts are highly variable but typically around 1% volume mixing ratio. The atmosphere also contains clouds and

aerosols.

B.

Baseline Reference for measurable quantities from which an alternative outcome can be measured, e.g. a non-intervention

scenario used as a reference in the analysis of intervention scenarios.

Biodiversity The total diversity of all organisms and ecosystems at various spatial scales (from genes to entire biomes).

Biofuel A fuel produced from organic matter or combustible oils produced by plants. Examples of biofuel include alcohol,

black liquor from the paper-manufacturing process, wood, and vegetable oils including from soybean, palm, and

coconut.

http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr_appendix.pdf


47

2

2

Biomass The total mass of living organisms in a given area or volume; recently dead plant material is often included as dead

biomass. The quantity of biomass is expressed as a dry weight or as the energy, carbon, or nitrogen content.

Boreal forest Forests of pine, spruce, fir, and larch stretching from the east coast of Canada westward to Alaska and continuing

from Siberia westward across the entire extent of Russia to the European Plain.

Bottom-up models Bottom-up models represent reality by aggregating characteristics of specific activities and processes, considering

technological, engineering and cost details. See also Top-down models.

C.

Carbon cycle The term used to describe the flow of carbon (in various forms, e.g. as carbon dioxide) through the atmosphere,

ocean, terrestrial biosphere and lithosphere.

Carbon dioxide (CO2) A naturally occurring gas, also a by-product of burning fossil fuels from fossil carbon deposits, such as oil, gas and

coal, of burning biomass and of land use changes and other industrial processes. It is the principal anthropogenic

greenhouse gas that affects the Earth’s radiative balance. It is the reference gas against which other greenhouse

gases are measured and therefore has a Global Warming Potential of 1.

Carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilisation The enhancement of the growth of plants as a result of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide CO2) concentration.

Depending on their mechanism of photosynthesis, certain types of plants are more sensitive to changes in

atmospheric CO2 concentration.

Carbon intensity The amount of emission of carbon dioxide per unit of Gross Domestic Product.

Carbon sequestration See Uptake.

Civil society The term civil society refers to the wide array of non-governmental and not-for-profit organizations that have a

presence in public life, expressing the interests and values of their members or others, based on ethical, cultural,

political, scientific, religious or philanthropic considerations. Examples include federations, associations and groups

representing farmers, fishers, forest users, herders, indigenous peoples, women, men and youth, social/people’s

movements, labour unions, indigenous peoples’ organizations, charitable organizations, faith-based organizations,

professional associations and foundations.

Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)

Defined in Article 12 of the Kyoto Protocol, the CDM is intended to meet two objectives: (1) to assist parties not

included in Annex I in achieving sustainable development and in contributing to the ultimate objective of the

convention; and (2) to assist parties included in Annex I in achieving compliance with their quantified emission

limitation and reduction commitments. Certified Emission Reduction Units from CDM projects undertaken in non-

Annex I countries that limit or reduce greenhouse gas emissions, when certified by operational entities designated by

Conference of the Parties/Meeting of the Parties, can be accrued to the investor (government or industry) from

parties in Annex B. A share of the proceeds from the certified project activities is used to cover administrative

expenses as well as to assist developing country parties that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of

climate change to meet the costs of adaptation.


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Climate Climate in a narrow sense is usually defined as the average weather, or more rigorously, as the statistical description

in terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities over a period of time ranging from months to thousands or

millions of years. The classical period for averaging these variables is 30 years, as defined by the World

Meteorological Organization. The relevant quantities are most often surface variables such as temperature,

precipitation and wind. Climate in a wider sense is the state, including a statistical description, of the climate system.

In various parts of this report different averaging periods, such as a period of 20 years, are also used.

Climate change Climate change refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g., by using statistical tests) by

changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically decades

or longer. Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcings, or to persistent

anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use. Note that the United Nations Framework

Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), in its Article 1, defines climate change as: ‘a change of climate which is

attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in

addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods’. The UNFCCC thus makes a distinction

between climate change attributable to human activities altering the atmospheric composition, and climate variability

attributable to natural causes. See also Climate variability; Detection and Attribution.

Climate feedback An interaction mechanism between processes in the climate system is called a climate feedback when the result of

an initial process triggers changes in a second process that in turn influences the initial one. A positive feedback

intensifies the original process, and a negative feedback reduces it.

Climate model A numerical representation of the climate system based on the physical, chemical and biological properties of its

components, their interactions and feedback processes, and accounting for all or some of its known properties. The

climate system can be represented by models of varying complexity, that is, for any one component or combination of

components a spectrum or hierarchy of models can be identified, differing in such aspects as the number of spatial

dimensions, the extent to which physical, chemical or biological processes are explicitly represented, or the level at

which empirical parametrisations are involved. Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs)

provide a representation of the climate system that is near the most comprehensive end of the spectrum currently

available. There is an evolution towards more complex models with interactive chemistry and biology (see WGI

Chapter 8). Climate models are applied as a research tool to study and simulate the climate, and for operational

purposes, including monthly, seasonal and interannual climate predictions.

Climate prediction A climate prediction or climate forecast is the result of an attempt to produce an estimate of the actual evolution of the

climate in the future, for example, at seasonal, interannual or long-term time scales. Since the future evolution of the

climate system may be highly sensitive to initial conditions, such predictions are usually probabilistic in nature. See

also Climate projection, climate scenario.

Climate projection A projection of the response of the climate system to emission or concentration scenarios of greenhouse gases and

aerosols, or radiative forcing scenarios, often based upon simulations by climate models. Climate projections are

distinguished from climate predictions in order to emphasise that climate projections depend upon the

emission/concentration/radiative forcing scenario used, which are based on assumptions concerning, for example,

future socioeconomic and technological developments that may or may not be realised and are therefore subject to

substantial uncertainty.

Climate scenario A plausible and often simplified representation of the future climate, based on an internally consistent set of

climatological relationships that has been constructed for explicit use in investigating the potential consequences of


49

anthropogenic climate change, often serving as input to impact models. Climate projections often serve as the raw

material for constructing climate scenarios, but climate scenarios usually require additional information such as about

the observed current climate. A climate change scenario is the difference between a climate scenario and the current

climate.

Climate sensitivity In IPCC reports, equilibrium climate sensitivity refers to the equilibrium change in the annual mean global surface

temperature following a doubling of the atmospheric equivalent carbon dioxide concentration. Due to computational

constraints, the equilibrium climate sensitivity in a climate model is usually estimated by running an atmospheric

general circulation model coupled to a mixed-layer ocean model, because equilibrium climate sensitivity is largely

determined by atmospheric processes. Efficient models can be run to equilibrium with a dynamic ocean. The

transient climate response is the change in the global surface temperature, averaged over a 20-year period, centred

at the time of atmospheric carbon dioxide doubling, that is, at year 70 in a 1%/yr compound carbon dioxide increase

experiment with a global coupled climate model. It is a measure of the strength and rapidity of the surface

temperature response to greenhouse gas forcing.

Climate variability Climate variability refers to variations in the mean state and other statistics (such as standard deviations, the

occurrence of extremes, etc.) of the climate on all spatial and temporal scales beyond that of individual weather

events. Variability may be due to natural internal processes within the climate system (internal variability), or to

variations in natural or anthropogenic external forcing (external variability). See also Climate change.

CO2 fertilization See Carbon dioxide fertilization.

Co-benefits The benefits of policies implemented for various reasons at the same time, acknowledging that most policies

designed to address greenhouse gas mitigation have other, often at least equally important, rationales (e.g., related

to objectives of development, sustainability, and equity).

Compliance

Compliance is whether and to what extent countries do adhere to the provisions of an accord. Compliance depends

on implementing policies ordered, and on whether measures follow up the policies. Compliance is the degree to

which the actors whose behaviour is targeted by the agreement, local government units, corporations, organizations,

or individuals, conform to the implementing obligations. See also Implementation.

D.

Deforestation Conversion of forest to non-forest. For a discussion of the term forest and related terms such as afforestation,

reforestation, and deforestation see the IPCC Report on Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (IPCC, 2000).

See also the Report on Definitions and Methodological Options to Inventory Emissions from Direct Human-induced

Degradation of Forests and Devegetation of Other Vegetation Types (IPCC, 2003).

Demand-side management (DSM) Policies and programmes for influencing the demand for goods and/or services. In the energy sector, DSM aims at

reducing the demand for electricity and energy sources. DSM helps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Development path or pathway An evolution based on an array of technological, economic, social, institutional, cultural, and biophysical

characteristics that determine the interactions between natural and human systems, including production and

consumption patterns in all countries, over time at a particular scale. Alternative development paths refer to different

possible trajectories of development, the continuation of current trends being just one of the many paths.


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Drought In general terms, drought is a ‘prolonged absence or marked deficiency of precipitation’, a ‘deficiency that results in

water shortage for some activity or for some group’, or a ‘period of abnormally dry weather sufficiently prolonged for

the lack of precipitation to cause a serious hydrological imbalance’ (Heim, 2002). Drought has been defined in a

number of ways. Agricultural drought relates to moisture deficits in the topmost 1 metre or so of soil (the root zone)

that affect crops, meteorological drought is mainly a prolonged deficit of precipitation, and hydrologic drought is

related to below-normal stream flow, lake and groundwater levels. A megadrought is a long drawn out and pervasive

drought, lasting much longer than normal, usually a decade or more.

E.

Economic (mitigation) potential See Mitigation potential.

Ecosystem A system of living organisms interacting with each other and their physical environment. The boundaries of what

could be called an ecosystem are somewhat arbitrary, depending on the focus of interest or study. Thus, the extent of

an ecosystem may range from very small spatial scales to, ultimately, the entire Earth.

El Nińo-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) The term El Niño was initially used to describe a warm-water current that periodically flows along the coast of

Ecuador and Perú, disrupting the local fishery. It has since become identified with a basinwide warming of the tropical

Pacific east of the dateline. This oceanic event is associated with a fluctuation of a global-scale tropical and

subtropical surface pressure pattern called the Southern Oscillation. This coupled atmosphereocean phenomenon,

with preferred time scales of two to about seven years, is collectively known as El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or

ENSO. It is often measured by the surface pressure anomaly difference between Darwin and Tahiti and the sea

surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. During an ENSO event, the prevailing trade winds

weaken, reducing upwelling and altering ocean currents such that the sea surface temperatures warm, further

weakening the trade winds. This event has a great impact on the wind, sea surface temperature and precipitation

patterns in the tropical Pacific. It has climatic effects throughout the Pacific region and in many other parts of the

world, through global teleconnections. The cold phase of ENSO is called La Niña.

Emission scenario

A plausible representation of the future development of emissions of substances that are potentially radiatively active

(e.g., greenhouse gases, aerosols), based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about driving

forces (such as demographic and socioeconomic development, technological change) and their key relationships.

Concentration scenarios, derived from emission scenarios, are used as input to a climate model to compute climate

projections. In IPCC (1992) a set of emission scenarios was presented which were used as a basis for the climate

projections in IPCC (1996). These emission scenarios are referred to as the IS92 scenarios. In the IPCC Special

Report on Emission Scenarios (Nakicenovic and Swart, 2000) new emission scenarios, the so-called SRES

scenarios, were published. For the meaning of some terms related to these scenarios, see SRES scenarios.

Emission(s) trading

A market-based approach to achieving environmental objectives. It allows those reducing greenhouse gas emissions

below their emission cap to use or trade the excess reductions to offset emissions at another source inside or outside

the country. In general, trading can occur at the intra-company, domestic, and international levels. The Second

Assessment Report by the IPCC adopted the convention of using permits for domestic trading systems and quotas

for international trading systems. Emissions trading under Article 17 of the Kyoto Protocol is a tradable quota system

based on the assigned amounts calculated from the emission reduction and limitation commitments listed in Annex B

of the Protocol.

Emission trajectory A projected development in time of the emission of a greenhouse gas or group of greenhouse gases, aerosols and

greenhouse gas precursors.


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Ecosystem services The benefits people obtain from ecosystems. These include provisioning services such as food and water; regulating

services such as flood and disease control; cultural services such as spiritual, recreational, and cultural benefits; and

supporting services such as nutrient cycling that maintain the conditions for life on Earth. The concept ‘‘ecosystem

goods and services’’ is synonymous with ecosystem services.

Erosion The process of removal and transport of soil and rock by weathering, mass wasting, and the action of streams,

glaciers, waves, winds, and underground water.

Evapotranspiration The combined process of water evaporation from the Earth’s surface and transpiration from vegetation.

External forcing External forcing refers to a forcing agent outside the climate system causing a change in the climate system. Volcanic

eruptions, solar variations and anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere and land use change are

external forcings.

Extreme weather event An event that is rare at a particular place and time of year. Definitions of “rare” vary, but an extreme weather event

would normally be as rare as or rarer than the 10th or 90th percentile of the observed probability density function. By

definition, the characteristics of what is called extreme weather may vary from place to place in an absolute sense.

Single extreme events cannot be simply and directly attributed to anthropogenic climate change, as there is always a

finite chance the event in question might have occurred naturally. When a pattern of extreme weather persists for

some time, such as a season, it may be classed as an extreme climate event, especially if it yields an average or total

that is itself extreme (e.g., drought or heavy rainfall over a season).

F.

Food security A situation that exists when people have secure access to sufficient amounts of safe and nutritious food for normal

growth, development and an active and healthy life. Food insecurity may be caused by the unavailability or

uncertainty about future availability of food, insufficient purchasing power, inappropriate distribution, or inadequate

use of food at the household level.

Forecast

See Climate forecast; Climate projection; Projection.

Forest A vegetation type dominated by trees. Many definitions of the term forest are in use throughout the world, reflecting

wide differences in biogeophysical conditions, social structure, and economics. Particular criteria apply under the

Kyoto Protocol. For a discussion of the term forest and related terms such as afforestation, reforestation, and

deforestation see the IPCC Special Report on Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (IPCC, 2000). See also the

Report on Definitions and Methodological Options to Inventory Emissions from Direct Human-induced Degradation of

Forests and Devegetation of Other Vegetation Types (IPCC, 2003)

Fossil fuels Carbon-based fuels from fossil hydrocarbon deposits, including coal, peat, oil, and natural gas.

G.

Global surface temperature The global surface temperature is an estimate of the global mean surface air temperature. However, for changes over

time, only anomalies, as departures from a climatology, are used, most commonly based on the area-weighted global

average of the sea surface temperature anomaly and land surface air temperature anomaly.


52

Global Warming Potential (GWP) An index, based upon radiative properties of well mixed greenhouse gases, measuring the radiative forcing of a unit

mass of a given well mixed greenhouse gas in today’s atmosphere integrated over a chosen time horizon, relative to

that of carbon dioxide. The GWP represents the combined effect of the differing times these gases remain in the

atmosphere and their relative effectiveness in absorbing outgoing thermal infrared radiation. The Kyoto Protocol is

based on GWPs from pulse emissions over a 100 year time frame.

Greenhouse effect

Greenhouse gases effectively absorb thermal infrared radiation, emitted by the Earth’s surface, by the atmosphere

itself due to the same gases, and by clouds. Atmospheric radiation is emitted to all sides, including downward to the

Earth’s surface. Thus greenhouse gases trap heat within the surface-troposphere system. This is called the

greenhouse effect. Thermal infrared radiation in the troposphere is strongly coupled to the temperature of the

atmosphere at the altitude at which it is emitted. In the troposphere, the temperature generally decreases with height.

Effectively, infrared radiation emitted to space originates from an altitude with a temperature of, on average, –19°C, in

balance with the net incoming solar radiation, whereas the Earth’s surface is kept at a much higher temperature of,

on average, +14°C. An increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases leads to an increased infrared opacity of

the atmosphere, and therefore to an effective radiation into space from a higher altitude at a lower temperature. This

causes a radiative forcing that leads to an enhancement of the greenhouse effect, the so-called enhanced

greenhouse effect.

Greenhouse gas (GHG) Greenhouse gases are those gaseous constituents of the atmosphere, both natural and anthropogenic, that absorb and

emit radiation at specific wavelengths within the spectrum of thermal infrared radiation emitted by the Earth’s surface,

the atmosphere itself, and by clouds. This property causes the greenhouse effect. Water vapour (H2O), carbon dioxide

(CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4) and ozone (O3) are the primary greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere.

Moreover, there are a number of entirely human-made greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, such as the halocarbons

and other chlorine and bromine containing substances, dealt with under the Montreal Protocol. Beside CO2, N2O and

CH4, the Kyoto Protocol deals with the greenhouse gases sulphur hexafluoride (SF6), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and

perfluorocarbons (PFCs).

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the monetary value of all goods and services produced within a nation.

H.

Hydrological cycle The cycle in which water evaporates from the oceans and the land surface, is carried over the Earth in atmospheric

circulation as water vapour, condensates to form clouds, precipitates again as rain or snow, is intercepted by trees

and vegetation, provides runoff on the land surface, infiltrates into soils, recharges groundwater, discharges into

streams, and ultimately, flows out into the oceans, from which it will eventually evaporate again (AMS, 2000). The

various systems involved in the hydrological cycle are usually referred to as hydrological systems.

I.

(Climate change) Impact assessment The practice of identifying and evaluating, in monetary and/or non-monetary terms, the effects of climate change on

natural and human systems.

(Climate change) Impacts The effects of climate change on natural and human systems. Depending on the consideration of adaptation, one can

distinguish between potential impacts and residual impacts: Potential impacts: all impacts that may occur given a

projected change in climate, without considering adaptation; Residual impacts: the impacts of climate change that

would oc cur after adaptation; See also aggregate impacts, market impacts, and non-market impacts.


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Implementation Implementation describes the actions taken to meet commitments under a treaty and encompasses legal and

effective phases. Legal implementation refers to legislation, regulations, judicial decrees, including other actions such

as efforts to administer progress which governments take to translate international accords into domestic law and

policy. Effective implementation needs policies and programmes that induce changes in the behaviour and decisions

of target groups. Target groups then take effective measures of mitigation and adaptation. See also Compliance.

Indigenous peoples

No internationally accepted definition of indigenous peoples exists. Common characteristics often applied under

international law, and by United Nations agencies to distinguish indigenous peoples include: residence within or

attachment to geographically distinct traditional habitats, ancestral territories, and their natural resources;

maintenance of cultural and social identities, and social, economic, cultural and political institutions separate from

mainstream or dominant societies and cultures; descent from population groups present in a given area, most

frequently before modern states or territories were created and current borders defined; and self-identification as

being part of a distinct indigenous cultural group, and the desire to preserve that cultural identity.

Induced technological change See technological change.

Industrial revolution A period of rapid industrial growth with far-reaching social and economic consequences, beginning in Britain during

the second half of the eighteenth century and spreading to Europe and later to other countries including the United

States. The invention of the steam engine was an important trigger of this development. The industrial revolution

marks the beginning of a strong increase in the use of fossil fuels and emission of, in particular, fossil carbon dioxide.

In this Report the terms pre-industrial and industrial refer, somewhat arbitrarily, to the periods before and after 1750,

respectively.

Infrastructure The basic equipment, utilities, productive enterprises, installations, and services essential for the development,

operation, and growth of an organization, city, or nation.

Integrated assessment A method of analysis that combines results and models from the physical, biological, economic and social sciences,

and the interactions between these components in a consistent framework to evaluate the status and the

consequences of environmental change and the policy responses to it. Models used to carry out such analysis are

called Integrated Assessment Models.

Integrated water resources management (IWRM) The prevailing concept for water management which, however, has not been defined unambiguously. IWRM is based

on four principles that were formulated by the International Conference on Water and the Environment in Dublin,

1992: 1) fresh water is a finite and vulnerable resource, essential to sustain life, development and the environment; 2)

water development and management should be based on a participatory approach, involving users, planners and

policymakers at all levels; 3) women play a central part in the provision, management and safeguarding of water; 4)

water has an economic value in all its competing uses and should be recognised as an economic good.

Intensification

J.

Joint Implementation (JI) A market-based implementation mechanism defined in Article 6 of the Kyoto Protocol, allowing Annex I countries or

companies from these countries to implement projects jointly that limit or reduce emissions or enhance sinks, and to

share the Emissions Reduction Units. JI activity is also permitted in Article 4.2(a) of the United Nations Framework

Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). See also Kyoto Mechanisms; Activities Implemented Jointly.


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K.

Kyoto Mechanisms (also called Flexibility Mechanisms) Economic mechanisms based on market principles that parties to the Kyoto Protocol can use in an attempt to lessen

the potential economic impacts of greenhouse gas emission-reduction requirements. They include Joint

Implementation (Article 6), Clean Development Mechanism (Article 12), and Emissions Trading (Article 17).

Kyoto Protocol

The Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was adopted in

1997 in Kyoto, Japan, at the Third Session of the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UNFCCC. It contains legally

binding commitments, in addition to those included in the UNFCCC. Countries included in Annex B of the Protocol

(most Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries and countries with economies in transition)

agreed to reduce their anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions ( carbon dioxide , methane , nitrous oxide ,

hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, and sulphur hexafluoride) by at least 5% below 1990 levels in the commitment

period 2008 to 2012. The Kyoto Protocol entered into force on 16 February 2005.

L.

Land use and Land-use change

Land use refers to the total of arrangements, activities and inputs undertaken in a certain land cover type (a set of

human actions). The term land use is also used in the sense of the social and economic purposes for which land is

managed (e.g., grazing, timber extraction, and conservation).

Land-use change refers to a change in the use or management of land by humans, which may lead to a change in

land cover. Land cover and landuse change may have an impact on the surface albedo, evapotranspiration, sources

and sinks of greenhouse gases, or other properties of the climate system and may thus have a radiative forcing

and/or other impacts on climate, locally or globally. See also: the IPCC Report on Land Use, Land-Use Change, and

Forestry (IPCC, 2000).

Likelihood The likelihood of an occurrence, an outcome or a result, where this can be estimated probabilistically, is expressed in

IPCC reports using a standard terminology defined as follows:

See also Confidence; Uncertainty

M.

Macroeconomic costs These costs are usually measured as changes in Gross Domestic Product or changes in the growth of Gross

Domestic Product, or as loss of welfare or of consumption.

Market impacts Impacts that can be quantified in monetary terms, and directly affect Gross Domestic Product – e.g. changes in the

price of agricultural inputs and/or goods. See also Non-market impacts.

Terminology Likelihood of the occurrence / outcome

Virtually certain

Very likely Likely More likely than not

About as likely as not Unlikely Very unlikely Exceptionally unlikely

>99% probability of occurrence >90% probability >66% probability >50% probability

33 to 66% probability <33% probability <10% probability

<1% probability


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Measures Measures are technologies, processes, and practices that reduce greenhouse gas emissions or effects below

anticipated future levels. Examples of measures are renewable energy technologies, waste minimisation processes,

and public transport commuting practices, etc. See also Policies.

Metagenomics Metagenomics is a technology to explore the DNA directly isolated from an environmental sample. This DNA

represents the total DNA of all the organisms (mostly microbial) inhabiting the environment and it is named the

metagenome. Typically, several hundred up to several thousand different microbial species can be present in a

single metagenome.

It is quite obvious that metagenomics can sufficiently contribute in resolving problems associated with climate

change. There are two principal directions for such contribution. The first one is based on the fact that total planetary

microbiome (all microorganisms of Earth) is probably the largest part of biosphere (by biomass and activity)

responsible for the most sufficient part of global photosynthesis and carbon cycling on Earth exerting a substantial

influence on the atmosphere and therefore the climate. It is clear that metagenomics which is basically microbial can

help us begin to understand the role of microbes in climate change. This role is likely significantly underestimated and

links for example between greenhouse gas emission and global warming can be much fuzzier than previously

thought. The second direction is based on such fundamental feature of microbial communities as extremely high

adaptability. Every particular microbial community can quickly respond to any changes (abiotic and biotic) in the

environment. These changes are immediately reflected in the taxonomic and functional structure of metagenome or

metatranscriptome (collection of all RNA transcripts obtained from environmental sample). This feature of

microbiome gives a very promising tool for detection any changes in the environment including changes caused by

hidden factors. The last can be critically important for research programs for identification of risks and adaptation of

agriculture to agro-climatic metamorphosis, ensuring the sustainability of agricultural landscapes and the formation of

optimal land use infrastructure, including prevention of degradation and conservation of the soil fertility.

Methane (CH4)

Methane is one of the six greenhouse gases to be mitigated under the Kyoto Protocol and is the major component of

natural gas and associated with all hydrocarbon fuels, animal husbandry and agriculture. Coal-bed methane is the

gas found in coal seams.

Methane recovery

Methane emissions, e.g. from oil or gas wells, coal beds, peat bogs, gas transmission pipelines, landfills, or

anaerobic digesters, may be captured and used as a fuel or for some other economic purpose (e.g. chemical

feedstock).

Metric A consistent measurement of a characteristic of an object or activity that is otherwise difficult to quantify.

Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)

A set of time-bound and measurable goals for combating poverty, hunger, disease, illiteracy, discrimination against

women and environmental degradation, agreed at the UN Millennium Summit in 2000.

Mitigation Technological change and substitution that reduce resource inputs and emissions per unit of output. Although several

social, economic and technological policies would produce an emission reduction, with respect to climate change,

mitigation means implementing policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance sinks.

Mitigative capacity

This is a country’s ability to reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions or to enhance natural sinks, where

ability refers to skills, competencies, fitness and proficiencies that a country has attained and depends on technology,

institutions, wealth, equity, infrastructure and information. Mitigative capacity is rooted in a country’s sustainable

development path.


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Mitigation Potential In the context of climate change mitigation, the mitigation potential is the amount of mitigation that could be – but is

not yet – realised over time.

Market potential is the mitigation potential based on private costs and private discount rates, which might be expected

to occur under forecast market conditions, including policies and measures currently in place, noting that barriers limit

actual uptake. Private costs and discount rates reflect the perspective of private consumers and companies.

Economic potential is the mitigation potential that takes into account social costs and benefits and social discount

rates, assuming that market efficiency is improved by policies and measures and barriers are removed. Social costs

and discount rates reflect the perspective of society. Social discount rates are lower than those used by private

investors.

Studies of market potential can be used to inform policy makers about mitigation potential with existing policies and

barriers, while studies of economic potential show what might be achieved if appropriate new and additional policies

were put into place to remove barriers and include social costs and benefits. The economic potential is therefore

generally greater than the market potential.

Technical potential is the amount by which it is possible to reduce greenhouse gas emissions or improve energy

efficiency by implementing a technology or practice that has already been demonstrated. No explicit reference to

costs is made but adopting ‘practical constraints’ may take implicit economic considerations into account.

Monsoon A monsoon is a tropical and subtropical seasonal reversal in both the surface winds and associated precipitation,

caused by differential heating between a continental-scale land mass and the adjacent ocean. Monsoon rains occur

mainly over land in summer.

Morbidity Rate of occurrence of disease or other health disorder within a population, taking account of the age-specific

morbidity rates. Morbidity indicators include chronic disease incidence/ prevalence, rates of hospitalisation, primary

care consultations, disability-days (i.e., days of absence from work), and prevalence of symptoms.

Mortality Rate of occurrence of death within a population; calculation of mortality takes account of age-specific death rates,

and can thus yield measures of life expectancy and the extent of premature death.

Multifunctionality

N.

Nairobi work programme on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate

change (NWP) The Nairobi work programme (NWP) is undertaken under the auspices of the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and

Technological Advice (SBSTA) of the UNFCCC. Its objective is to assist all Parties, but in particular developing

countries to improve their understanding and assessment of impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change

and make informed decisions on practical adaptation actions and measures to respond to climate change on a sound

scientific, technical and socio-economic basis, taking into account current and future climate change and variability.

Net market benefits Climate change, especially moderate climate change, is expected to bring positive and negative impacts to market-

based sectors, but with significant differences across different sectors and regions and depending on both negative

market-based benefits and costs summed across all sectors and all regions for a given period is called net market

benefits. Net market benefits exclude any non-market impacts.

http://unfccc.int/bodies/body/6399.php


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2

Nitrogen use efficiency

Nitrous oxide (N2O) One of the six types of greenhouse gases to be curbed under the Kyoto Protocol. The main anthropogenic source of

nitrous oxide is agriculture (soil and animal manure management), but important contributions also come from

sewage treatment, combustion of fossil fuel, and chemical industrial processes. Nitrous oxide is also produced

naturally from a wide variety of biological sources in soil and water, particularly microbial action in wet tropical forests.

Non-governmental Organisation (NGO) A non-profit group or association organised outside of institutionalised political structures to realise particular social

and/or environmental objectives or serve particular constituencies. Source: http://www.edu.gov.nf.ca/

curriculum/teched/resources/glos-biodiversity.html

Non-market impacts Impacts that affect ecosystems or human welfare, but that are not easily expressed in monetary terms, e.g., an

increased risk of premature death, or increases in the number of people at risk of hunger. See also market impacts.

O.

Ocean acidification A decrease in the pH of sea water due to the uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide.

Ozone (O3)

Ozone, the tri-atomic form of oxygen, is a gaseous atmospheric constituent. In the troposphere, ozone is created both

naturally and by photochemical reactions involving gases resulting from human activities (smog). Troposphere ozone

acts as a greenhouse gas. In the stratosphere, ozone is created by the interaction between solar ultraviolet radiation

and molecular oxygen (O2). Stratospheric ozone plays a dominant role in the stratospheric radiative balance. Its

concentration is highest in the ozone layer.

P.

Participatory crop breeding

Patterns of climate variability

Natural variability of the climate system, in particular on seasonal and longer time scales, predominantly occurs with

preferred spatial patterns and time scales, through the dynamical characteristics of the atmospheric circulation and

through interactions with the land and ocean surfaces. Such patterns are often called regimes, modes or

teleconnections. Examples are the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Pacific-North American pattern (PNA), the El

Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Northern Annular Mode (NAM; previously called Arctic Oscillation, AO) and

the Southern Annular Mode (SAM; previously called the Antarctic Oscillation, AAO). Many of the prominent modes of

climate variability are discussed in section 3.6 of the Working Group I Report.

Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) Among the six greenhouse gases to be abated under the Kyoto Protocol. These are by-products of aluminium

smelting and uranium enrichment. They also replace chlorofluorocarbons in manufacturing semiconductors.

Permafrost Ground (soil or rock and included ice and organic material) that remains at or below 0°C for at least two consecutive

years.

Photosynthesis The process by which green plants, algae and some bacteria take carbon dioxide from the air (or bicarbonate in

water) to build carbohydrates. There are several pathways of photosynthesis with different responses to atmospheric

carbon dioxide concentrations. See Carbon dioxide fertilisation.

http://www.edu.gov.nf.ca/

http://www.edu.gov.nf.ca/


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Policies In United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) parlance, policies are taken and/or

mandated by a government – often in conjunction with business and industry within its own country, or with other

countries – to accelerate mitigation and adaptation measures. Examples of policies are carbon or other energy taxes,

fuel efficiency standards for automobiles, etc. Common and co-ordinated or harmonised policies refer to those

adopted jointly by parties. See also Measures.

Portfolio

A coherent set of a variety of measures and/or technologies that policy makers can use to achieve a postulated policy

target. By widening the scope in measures and technologies more diverse events and uncertainties can be

addressed.

Projection A potential future evolution of a quantity or set of quantities, often computed with the aid of a model. Projections are

distinguished from predictions in order to emphasise that projections involve assumptions concerning, for example,

future socio-economic and technological developments that may or may not be realised, and are therefore subject to

substantial uncertainty. See also Climate projection; Climate prediction.

Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) The purchasing power of a currency is expressed using a basket of goods and services that can be bought with a

given amount in the home country. International comparison of e.g. Gross Domestic Products (GDP) of countries can

be based on the purchasing power of currencies rather than on current exchange rates. PPP estimates tend to lower

per capita GDPs in industrialised countries and raise per capita GDPs in developing countries.

R.

Radiative forcing

Radiative forcing is the change in the net, downward minus upward, irradiance (expressed in Watts per square metre,

W/m2) at the tropopause due to a change in an external driver of climate change, such as, for example, a change in

the concentration of carbon dioxide or the output of the Sun. Radiative forcing is computed with all tropospheric

properties held fixed at their unperturbed values, and after allowing for stratospheric temperatures, if perturbed, to

readjust to radiative-dynamical equilibrium. Radiative forcing is called instantaneous if no change in stratospheric

temperature is accounted for. For the purposes of this report, radiative forcing is further defined as the change

relative to the year 1750 and, unless otherwise noted, refers to a global and annual average value.

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) is an effort to create a financial value for the

carbon stored in forests, offering incentives for developing countries to reduce emissions from forested lands and

invest in low-carbon paths to sustainable development. “REDD+” goes beyond deforestation and forest degradation,

and includes the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks.

Reforestation

Planting of forests on lands that have previously contained forests but that have been converted to some other use.

For a discussion of the term forest and related terms such as afforestation, reforestation and deforestation, see the

IPCC Report on Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (IPCC, 2000). See also the Report on Definitions and

Methodological Options to Inventory Emissions from Direct Human-induced Degradation of Forests and Devegetation

of Other Vegetation Types (IPCC, 2003)

Resilience The ability of a social or ecological system to absorb disturbances while retaining the same basic structure and ways

of functioning, the capacity for self-organisation, and the capacity to adapt to stress and change.


59

(Five) Rome Principles for Sustainable Global Food Security The 2009 declaration of the world summit on food security identified five principles to meet the strategic objectives of

the summit.

Principle 1: Invest in country-owned plans, aimed at channelling resources to well designed and results-based

programmes and partnerships.

Principle 2: Foster strategic coordination at national, regional and global level to improve governance, promote better

allocation of resources, avoid duplication of efforts and identify response-gaps.

Principle 3: Strive for a comprehensive twin-track approach to food security that consists of: 1) direct action to

immediately tackle hunger for the most vulnerable and 2) medium- and long-term sustainable agricultural, food

security, nutrition and rural development programmes to eliminate the root causes of hunger and poverty, including

through the progressive realization of the right to adequate food.

Principle 4: Ensure a strong role for the multilateral system by sustained improvements in efficiency, responsiveness,

coordination and effectiveness of multilateral institutions.

Principle 5: Ensure sustained and substantial commitment by all partners to investment in agriculture and food

security and nutrition, with provision of necessary resources in a timely and reliable fashion, aimed at multi-year plans

and programmes.

S.

Salinisation

The accumulation of salts in soils.

Saltwater intrusion Displacement of fresh surface water or groundwater by the advance of saltwater due to its greater density. This

usually occurs in coastal and estuarine areas due to reducing land-based influence (e.g., either from reduced runoff

and associated groundwater recharge, or from excessive water withdrawals from aquifers) or increasing marine

influence (e.g., relative sea-level rise).

Scenario

A plausible and often simplified description of how the future may develop, based on a coherent and internally

consistent set of assumptions about driving forces and key relationships. Scenarios may be derived from projections,

but are often based on additional information from other sources, sometimes combined with a narrative storyline. See

also SRES scenarios; Climate scenario; Emission scenarios.

Sea level change/sea level rise Sea level can change, both globally and locally, due to (i) changes in the shape of the ocean basins, (ii) changes in

the total mass of water and (iii) changes in water density. Factors leading to sea level rise under global warming

include both increases in the total mass of water from the melting of land-based snow and ice, and changes in water

density from an increase in ocean water temperatures and salinity changes. Relative sea level rise occurs where

there is a local increase in the level of the ocean relative to the land, which might be due to ocean rise and/or land

level subsidence. See also Mean Sea Level, Thermal expansion.

Sensitivity

Sensitivity is the degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate variability or climate

change. The effect may be direct (e.g., a change in crop yield in response to a change in the mean, range, or

variability of temperature) or indirect (e.g., damages caused by an increase in the frequency of coastal flooding due to

sea level rise). This concept of sensitivity is not to be confused with climate sensitivity, which is defined separately

above.

Sink Any process, activity or mechanism which removes a greenhouse gas, an aerosol or a precursor of a greenhouse

gas or aerosol from the atmosphere.


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Soil temperature The temperature of the ground near the surface (often within the first 10cm).

Source Source mostly refers to any process, activity or mechanism that releases a greenhouse gas, an aerosol, or a

precursor of a greenhouse gas or aerosol into the atmosphere. Source can also refer to e.g. an energy source.

Spatial and temporal scales Climate may vary on a large range of spatial and temporal scales. Spatial scales may range from local (less than

100,000 km2), through regional (100,000 to 10 million km2) to continental (10 to 100 million km2). Temporal scales

may range from seasonal to geological (up to hundreds of millions of years).

SRES scenarios SRES scenarios are emission scenarios developed by Nakicenovic and Swart (2000) and used, among others, as a

basis for some of the climate projections used in the Fourth Assessment Report. The following terms are relevant for

a better understanding of the structure and use of the set of SRES scenarios:

Scenario Family: Scenarios that have a similar demographic, societal, economic and technical-change storyline. Four

scenario families comprise the SRES scenario set: A1, A2, B1 and B2.

Illustrative Scenario: A scenario that is illustrative for each of the six scenario groups reflected in the Summary for

Policymakers of Nakicenovic et al. (2000). They include four revised ‘scenario markers’ for the scenario groups A1B,

A2, B1, B2, and two additional scenarios for the A1FI and A1T groups. All scenario groups are equally sound.

Marker Scenario: A scenario that was originally posted in draft form on the SRES website to represent a given

scenario family. The choice of markers was based on which of the initial quantifications best reflected the storyline,

and the features of specific models. Markers are no more likely than other scenarios, but are considered by the SRES

writing team as illustrative of a particular storyline. They are included in revised form in Nakicenovic and Swart

(2000). These scenarios received the closest scrutiny of the entire writing team and via the SRES open process.

Scenarios were also selected to illustrate the other two scenario groups.

Storyline: A narrative description of a scenario (or family of scenarios), highlighting the main scenario characteristics,

relationships between key driving forces and the dynamics of their evolution.

Structural change Changes, for example, in the relative share of Gross Domestic Product produced by the industrial, agricultural, or

services sectors of an economy; or more generally, systems transformations whereby some components are either

replaced or potentially substituted by other ones.

Stabilisation Keeping constant the atmospheric concentrations of one or more greenhouse gases (e.g. carbon dioxide) or of a

CO2-equivalent basket of greenhouse gases. Stabilisation analyses or scenarios address the stabilisation of the

concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Sulphurhexafluoride (SF6) One of the six greenhouse gases to be curbed under the Kyoto Protocol. It is largely used in heavy industry to

insulate high-voltage equipment and to assist in the manufacturing of cable-cooling systems and semi-conductors.

Surface temperature See Global surface temperature.

Sustainable Development (SD)

The concept of sustainable development was introduced in the World Conservation Strategy (IUCN 1980) and had its

roots in the concept of a sustainable society and in the management of renewable resources. Adopted by the WCED


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in 1987 and by the Rio Conference in 1992 as a process of change in which the exploitation of resources, the

direction of investments, the orientation of technological development, and institutional change are all in harmony and

enhance both current and future potential to meet human needs and aspirations. SD integrates the political, social,

economic and environmental dimensions.

Sustainable food security A situation that exists when the processes that lead to food security today do not reduce food security in the future.

See also Rome Principles for Sustainable Global Food Security

Sustainable intensification Sustainable intensification occurs when agricultural productivity increases in ways that can be continued indefinitely

into the future when all consequences of different practices are taken into account, including food production’s direct

and indirect roles in greenhouse gas emissions. Sustainable intensification is a description of a food production

outcome and does not imply any particular means of attaining the goal.

T.

Tax

A carbon tax is a levy on the carbon content of fossil fuels. Because virtually all of the carbon in fossil fuels is

ultimately emitted as carbon dioxide, a carbon tax is equivalent to an emission tax on each unit of CO2equivalent

emissions. An energy tax a levy on the energy content of fuels reduces demand for energy and so reduces carbon

dioxide emissions from fossil fuel use. An eco-tax is designed to influence human behaviour (specifically economic

behaviour) to follow an ecologically benign path. An international carbon/emission/energy tax is a tax imposed on

specified sources in participating countries by an international agreement. A harmonised tax commits participating

countries to impose a tax at a common rate on the same sources. A tax credit is a reduction of tax in order to

stimulate purchasing of or investment in a certain product, like GHG emission reducing technologies. A carbon

charge is the same as a carbon tax.

Technological change Mostly considered as technological improvement, i.e. more or better goods and services can be provided from a

given amount of resources (production factors). Economic models distinguish autonomous (exogenous), endogenous

and induced technological change. Autonomous (exogenous) technological change is imposed from outside the

model, usually in the form of a time trend affecting energy demand or world output growth. Endogenous technological

change is the outcome of economic activity within the model, i.e. the choice of technologies is included within the

model and affects energy demand and/or economic growth. Induced technological change implies endogenous

technological change but adds further changes induced by policies and measures, such as carbon taxes triggering

R&D efforts.

Technology transfer The exchange of knowledge, hardware and associated software, money and goods among stakeholders that leads to

the spreading of technology for adaptation or mitigation. The term encompasses both diffusion of technologies and

technological cooperation across and within countries.

Thermal expansion In connection with sea-level rise, this refers to the increase in volume (and decrease in density) that results from

warming water. A warming of the ocean leads to an expansion of the ocean volume and hence an increase in sea

level. See Sea level change.

Thermal infrared radiation Radiation emitted by the Earth’s surface, the atmosphere and the clouds. It is also known as terrestrial or longwave

radiation, and is to be distinguished from the near-infrared radiation that is part of the solar spectrum. Infrared

radiation, in general, has a distinctive range of wavelengths (spectrum) longer than the wavelength of the red colour

in the visible part of the spectrum. The spectrum of thermal infrared radiation is practically distinct from that of


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shortwave or solar radiation because of the difference in temperature between the Sun and the Earth-atmosphere

system.

Top-down models Top-down model apply macroeconomic theory, econometric and optimization techniques to aggregate economic

variables. Using historical data on consumption, prices, incomes, and factor costs, top-down models assess final

demand for goods and services, and supply from main sectors, like the energy sector, transportation, agriculture, and

industry. Some top-down models incorporate technology data, narrowing the gap to bottom-up models.

Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) The amount of solar radiation received outside the Earth’s atmosphere on a surface normal to the incident radiation,

and at the Earth’s mean distance from the sun. Reliable measurements of solar radiation can only be made from

space and the precise record extends back only to 1978. The generally accepted value is 1,368 Watts per square

meter (W m-2) with an accuracy of about 0.2%. Variations of a few tenths of a percent are common, usually

associated with the passage of sunspots across the solar disk. The solar cycle variation of TSI is on the order of

0.1%. Source: AMS, 2000.

Tradable permit A tradable permit is an economic policy instrument under which rights to discharge pollution – in this case an amount

of greenhouse gas emissions – can be exchanged through either a free or a controlled permit-market. An emission

permit is a non-transferable or tradable entitlement allocated by a government to a legal entity (company or other

emitter) to emit a specified amount of a substance.

U.

Uncertainty An expression of the degree to which a value (e.g., the future state of the climate system) is unknown. Uncertainty

can result from lack of information or from disagreement about what is known or even knowable. It may have many

types of sources, from quantifiable errors in the data to ambiguously defined concepts or terminology, or uncertain

projections of human behaviour. Uncertainty can therefore be represented by quantitative measures, for example, a

range of values calculated by various models, or by qualitative statements, for example, reflecting the judgement of a

team of experts (see Moss and Schneider, 2000; Manning et al., 2004). See also Likelihood; Confidence.

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) The Convention was adopted on 9 May 1992 in New York and signed at the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro by

more than 150 countries and the European Community. Its ultimate objective is the “stabilisation of greenhouse gas

concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate

system”. It contains commitments for all Parties. Under the Convention, Parties included in Annex I (all OECD

member countries in the year 1990 and countries with economies in transition) aim to return greenhouse gas

emissions not controlled by the Montreal Protocol to 1990 levels by the year 2000. The Convention entered in force in

March 1994. See Kyoto Protocol.

Urbanisation The conversion of land from a natural state or managed natural state (such as agriculture) to cities; a process driven

by net rural-to-urban migration through which an increasing percentage of the population in any nation or region

come to live in settlements that are defined as urban centres.

V.

Voluntary action Informal programmes, self-commitments and declarations, where the parties (individual companies or groups of

companies) entering into the action set their own targets and often do their own monitoring and reporting.


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Voluntary agreement An agreement between a government authority and one or more private parties to achieve environmental objectives

or to improve environmental performance beyond compliance to regulated obligations. Not all voluntary agreements

are truly voluntary; some include rewards and/or penalties associated with joining or achieving commitments.

Vulnerability Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate

change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of

climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity.

Vulnerability, human, to climate change Vulnerability is the degree to which an individual is or groups of individuals are susceptible to, and unable to cope

with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes.

W.

Water stress

A country is water stressed if the available freshwater supply relative to water withdrawals acts as an important

constraint on development. In global-scale assessments, basins with water stress are often defined as having a per

capita water availability below 1,000 m3/yr (based on long-term average runoff). Withdrawals exceeding 20% of

renewable water supply have also been used as an indicator of water stress. A crop is water stressed if soil available

water, and thus actual evapotranspiration, is less than potential evapotranspiration demands.

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