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Team Star
July 28th, 2016MS Marketing Intelligence, Fordham University
CONSULTANCY PROJECT
Research Director
Research Manager
Data Analyst
Project Director
Project Manager
Rita Shangguan
Maggie Zhang
Jeremy Li / Tom Wang
Carlos Lian
Tom Wang
MEET THE STARS
Business Manager
Client Contact
Presentation Coordinator
Presentation EditorSean Pinto
Managing DirectorsRaj Rajaraam
Sue Meng
Veronica Stuart
Sara Xu
Jessica Widmann
TODAY’S RECIPE
Program Diagnostic Analysis: Cooks vs. Cons (Season 1 & 2) and Chopped Junior (Season1)
THIS MENU HAS TWO ENTREES
Audience Trends Analysis: Updated Analysis of Food Network Audience Ratings vs. Competition
Audience Trends Analysis
PREPARATION
• Compared Food Network’s audience trend and those of other competitive networks over different time periods.
• Provided projections for Food Network and its competitors using Three Quarter Moving Average Method.
COOK & SERVE
Analysis & Conclusion
Trend Since 2006: People still need Food
COOK
Average Audience For Food Network and Three Competitors
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800FN HGTV TRAV
Time Period
AA (0
00s)
Trend Since 2006: People still need Food
COOKQ
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800FN HGTV TRAV AMC
Time Period
AA (0
00s)
Average Audience For Food Network and Three Competitors
COMPETITORS ANALYSISCurrent Trend Since 2015 Q1: Steady
COOK
Recent trend is flat – except for AMC
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12015 2016
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
438 428 447417 432
556522 499
437
601
189 173 169 177 197
725
337
458
684608
FOODHGTVTRAVAMC
Time Period
AA (0
00s)
3.6%
COMPETITORS ANALYSIS
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q10
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
712
352 370
693725
725
337
458
684
608
f(x) = 36.7 x + 460.3
f(x) = 11.3 x + 528.5
Quarter
AA (0
00s)
COOK
2014 Q1 – 2015 Q1
2015 Q1 - 2016Q1
Performance Comparison with Last Time Period - AMC
COMPETITORS ANALYSIS
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q10
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
503481
504
430
556556
522499
437
601
f(x) = 5.5 x + 478.3f(x) = 0.5 x + 521.5
Quarter
AA (0
00s)
COOK
2014 Q1 - 2015Q1
2015 Q1 - 2016Q1
Performance Comparison with Last Time Period - HGTV
COMPETITORS ANALYSIS
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q10
50
100
150
200
250
300
246
201 194179
189189
173 169177
197
f(x) = − 13.6 x + 242.6
f(x) = 2 x + 175
Quarter
AA (0
00s)
COOK
2014 Q1 - 2015Q1
2015 Q1 - 2016Q1
Performance Comparison with Last Time Period - TRAV
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q10
100
200
300
400
500
600
489
452467
411438
438 428447
417432
f(x) = − 14.3 x + 494.3
f(x) = − 2.3 x + 439.3
Quarter
AA (0
00s)
COMPETITORS ANALYSISPerformance Comparison with Last Time Period - FN
COOK
2014 Q1 - 2015Q1
2015 Q1 - 2016Q1
Doing Better than Previous Year
SERVE
Audience attraction of Food Network has improved since the
previous year.
2014 2015 2016
Predictive Analysis - AMCCOOK
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Time Period
AA (0
00s)
3 Quarter Moving AverageAverage Absolute % Error: 16%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12015 2016 2017
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
725
337
458
684
608
543569 494 575
531 542
604 606578
Actual AA (000s) PredictIve AA (000s)
Time Period
AA (0
00s)
Prediction: Overall, AMC AA will increase in upcoming quarters.
y = 7.3076x + 523.72
Predictive Analysis - HGTVCOOK
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Time Period
AA (0
00s)
3 Quarter Moving AverageAverage Absolute % Error: 8%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12015 2016 2017
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
556522
499
437
601
484 474
515 527494 485
542 548 538
Actual AA (000s) PredictIve AA (000s)
Time Period
AA (0
00s)
Prediction: Overall, HGTV AA will increase in upcoming four quarters.
y = 7.4817x + 474.33
Predictive Analysis - TRAVCOOK
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
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Q1
Q2
Q3
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Q1
Q2
Q3
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Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Time Period
AA (0
00s)
3 Quarter Moving AverageAverage Absolute % Error: 7%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12015 2016 2017
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
189173 169
177
197
188 183 183172 172
184192 187 190
Actual AA (000s) PredictIve AA (000s)
Time Period
AA (0
00s)
Prediction: Overall, TRAV AA will increase in upcoming four quarters.
y = 0.843x + 179.28
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
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Q1
Q2
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Q1
Q2
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Q2
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Q1
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Time Period
AA (0
00s)
3 Quarter Moving AverageAverage Absolute % Error: 6%
COOKPredictive Analysis - FN
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12015 2016 2017
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
438428 447
417 432435 424 431 437 429 424 426 424 423
Actual AA (000s) PredictIve AA (000s)
Time Period
AA (0
00s)
Prediction: Overall, Food Network AA is decreasing at a slower pace than before.
y = -1.1846x + 434.05
While Food Network’s average audience is on the
decline, the trend is expected to take an upward turn in upcoming
quarters.
Doing Well in a Tough MarketSERVE
TWITTER SENTIMENT ANALYSIS
Food network HGTV AMC TRAV0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
293130 180 95
372
130 11275
935
736
308
160
negative positive netural
23%
13%
19%
22%
Twitter Sentiment AnalysisCOOK
Food Network has the highest positive sentiment amongst competitors from 2015 Q1 to 2016 Q1.
Twitter Positive Sentiment is Tasty!
TWITTER SENTIMENT ANALYSISTwitter Sentiment Analysis - FN
COOK
Q3 of 2015 was a successful quarter in terms of ratings and positive sentiment among audience.
2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q1400405410415420425430435440445450
438
428
447
417
432f(x) = − 2.3 x + 439.3
AA
(000
s)
2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q10
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
30 4279 55 48
4966
109
54 46
122154
212
182
110
negative positive netural
FN has much more engaged audience than its Immediate competitors, leading to long-term loyalty.
Entrée is ReadySERVE
Program Diagnostic Analysis
PREPARATION
• Analyzed minute by minute in-show ratings for Chopped Junior and Cooks vs. Cons to identify audience trends.
• Applied relevant secondary research to formulate recommendations to increase ratings.
COOK & SERVE
Analysis & Conclusion
10/2
7/15
11/0
3/15
11/1
0/15
11/1
7/15
11/2
4/15
12/0
1/15
12/0
8/15
12/1
5/15
12/2
2/15
12/2
9/15
01/0
5/16
01/1
2/16
01/1
9/16
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
530
754
665
603
510475
529 538
617
688
571
667
591f(x) = 0.519780219780257 x + 591.538461538461
Chopped Jr. Average Audience by Episode for Season One
Episode
AA (0
00s)
Chopped Jr. Season 1: Ratings grow slowly
COOK
Minute by Minute – Chopped Junior - Season 1
Chopped Jr. Season 1: Similar Pattern for Each Episode
COOK
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
f(x) = 2.17148780644196 x + 528.946544980443
13 Episodes Minute by MinuteEP1 EP2 EP3 EP4 EP5EP6 EP7 EP8 EP9 EP10EP11 EP12 EP13 Average Linear (Average)
Minute
AA (0
00S)
Minute by Minute – Chopped Junior - Season 1
Analyzing Season One’s Outliers
COOK
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
f(x) = 0.355598777438177 x + 464.454237288136
Chopped Jr. Season1 Outlier EpisodesEP2 EP6 Linear (EP6) Average
Minute
AA (0
00S)
Difference of Episode 2 in AA = 159 (26.7%), Difference of Episode 6 in AA = - 120 (20.2%)
04/26/16 05/03/16 05/10/16 05/17/16 05/24/16 05/31/16 06/07/16 06/14/161 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
511451 474 472
368
464 473 496
f(x) = − 1.57936507936502 x + 470.807142857143
Chopped Jr. Average Audience for Season Two
Episode
AA (0
00s)
Chopped Jr. Season 2: Steady Ratings
COOK
• Season Two ratings are lower than season one, but stable
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960300
350
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600
650
f(x) = 1.76910252848013 x + 409.742372881356
8 Episodes Min by MinEP1 EP2 EP3 EP4 EP5EP6 EP7 EP8 Average Linear (Average)
Minute
AA (0
00S)
Chopped Jr. Season 2: Similar Pattern for Each Episode
COOK
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59300
350
400
450
500
550
600
Chopped Jr. Season 2 Outlier EpisodeEP5 Average
Minute
AA (0
00S)
Analyzing Season Two’s Outliers
COOK
Difference of Episode 5 in AA = - 96 (20.7%)
• Slight negative slopes – but stable.• High & low outliers may be diagnostic:
• For Season1, the ratings grew as the season progressed;
• For Season 2, the drop at episode5 is because this episode was released on May 24th at the same on-air time with season finales of The Voice and Dance with the Stars.
COOK & SERVEChopper Jr. Has a Healthy Performance
SERVE
03/17/16 03/24/16 03/31/16 04/07/16 04/14/16 04/21/161 2 3 4 5 6
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
543595
459 453 437388
f(x) = − 35.8323809523809 x + 604.746666666666
Average for Season One
Episode
AA (0
00s)
Cooks vs. Cons Season 1: Ratings decline dramatically
COOK
Cooks vs. Cons Season 1: Similar Pattern for Each Episode
COOK
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960300
400
500
600
700
800
f(x) = 1.58602389552654 x + 430.959604519774
6 Episodes Min by MinEP1 EP2 EP3 EP4EP5 EP6 Average Linear (Average)
Minute
AA (0
00S)
Analyzing Season One OutliersCOOK
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960300
400
500
600
700
800
f(x) = 0.312975826618505 x + 378.554237288136
Outstanding EpisodesEP2 EP6 Linear (EP6) Average
Minute
AA (0
00S)
Difference of Episode 2 in AA = 116 (24.2%), Difference of Episode 6 in AA = -91 (19.0%)
• Significant negative slope – downward trend.
• Outliers cannot be attributed to any external factors.
COOK & SERVECooks vs. Cons is in DangerSERVE
COOK & SERVEDinner is ServedSERVE
Engage audience participation on social media.
Let the audience
differentiate the cook from
the con!
COOK & SERVEDinner is ServedSERVE
10/2
7/15
11/0
3/15
11/1
0/15
11/1
7/15
11/2
4/15
12/0
1/15
12/0
8/15
12/1
5/15
12/2
2/15
12/2
9/15
01/0
5/16
01/1
2/16
01/1
9/16
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
530
754
665
603
510475
529 538
617
688
571
667
591
Chopped Jr. Average Audience by Episode for Season One
Episode
Choose celebrities with an interest in
cooking!
Selective selection of 3rd judge:
• Do not alienate target audience.
• Seasonality.
Future!
The Stars are shining brighter than ever.
