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Appendix 1: Materials used by Mr. Reinhart April 8, 2003 14 of 31

Fomc 20030408 Material

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Page 1: Fomc 20030408 Material

Appendix 1: Materials used by Mr. Reinhart

April 8, 2003 14 of 31

Page 2: Fomc 20030408 Material

Exhibit 1Treasury Securities Market

3.7

3.8

3.9

4.0

4.1

4.2

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9Percent Percent

03/13 03/14 03/17 03/18 03/19 03/20 03/21 03/24 03/25 03/26 03/27 03/28 03/31 04/01 04/02 04/03 04/04 04/07 04/08

8:00 Deadline Last Monday4:00 pm

Two- and Ten-year Treasury Yields

Note. Treasury yield shown is that of the on-the-run issue.

Five-minute intervals

Two-year(right scale)

Ten-year(left scale)

1/4 2 5 10 301

2

3

4

5

6Percent

Treasury Yield Curve

March 19, 2003 4:00 pm

April 8, 2003 11:00 am

Maturity in YearsJan. Feb. Mar.

2003

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6Percent

Ten-year TIPS Yield

+

Daily

+ denotes today’s observation (taken at approximately 11:00 am).

Selected Treasury Yields

Nominal

Indexed

4. Ten-year

1. Two-year

2. Five-year

3. Ten-year

1.58

2.90

3.98

1.70

2.97

3.98

-12

-7

0

2.12 2.10 2

Today4/8/03*

(1)

Wednesday3/19/03

(2)Change(1)-(2)

-basis points-

-basis points-

* Quotes taken at approximately 11:00 am.

April 8, 2003 15 of 31

Page 3: Fomc 20030408 Material

Exhibit 2Equity Market

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

114 3/13/03 9:30 am = 100

03/13 03/14 03/17 03/18 03/19 03/20 03/21 03/24 03/25 03/26 03/27 03/28 03/31 04/01 04/02 04/03 04/04 04/07 04/08

Last Monday4:00 pm

Major Stock Indexes

Five-minute intervals

Nasdaq

Wilshire 5000

S&P 500

32

34

36

38

40 Percent

03/13 03/14 03/17 03/18 03/19 03/20 03/21 03/24 03/25 03/26 03/27 03/28 03/31 04/01 04/02 04/03 04/04 04/07 04/08

Last Monday4:00 pm

S&P 100 Implied Volatility (VIX)

Five-minute intervals

Selected Equity Market Quotes

Major Indexes

Option-Implied Volatility

4. S&P 100 (VIX)

1. Wilshire 5000

2. S&P 500

3. Nasdaq

8338.08

881.67

1389.12

8258.42

874.02

1397.08

1.0

0.9

-0.6

30.42 35.74 -5.32

Today4/8/03*

(1)

Wednesday3/19/03

(2)Change(1)-(2)

-percent-

-percentage points-

* Quotes taken at approximately 11:00 am.

April 8, 2003 16 of 31

Page 4: Fomc 20030408 Material

Exhibit 3Monetary Policy Expectations

1.04

1.06

1.08

1.10

1.12

1.14

1.16

1.18

1.20

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6 Percent

03/13 03/14 03/17 03/18 03/19 03/20 03/21 03/24 03/25 03/26 03/27 03/28 03/31 04/01 04/02 04/03 04/04 04/07 04/08

Last Monday4:00 pm

Interest Rate Futures

Five-minute intervals

May 2003 Fed FundsFutures (left scale)

Mar. 2004 EurodollarFutures (right scale)

Apr. Aug. Dec. Apr. Aug. Dec. Apr. Aug.2003 2004 2005

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0Percent

April 8, 2003 11:00 am

March 19, 2003 3:30 pm

Expected Federal Funds Rates*

*Estimates from federal funds and eurodollar futuresJan. Feb. Mar.

2003

20

30

40

50

60PercentShort-term Eurodollar Implied Volatility*

Daily

*Contract with approximately 3 months to expiration.

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120 Percent

03/13 03/14 03/17 03/18 03/19 03/20 03/21 03/24 03/25 03/26 03/27 03/28 03/31 04/01 04/02 04/03 04/04 04/07 04/08

Last Monday4:00 pm

Probability of 1.00% target as opposed to 1.25% target*

*Represents the probability that the target funds rate will be 1.00% following the May 6 FOMC meeting. Calculation based on May 2003 federal funds futures contract.

Five-minute intervals

April 8, 2003 17 of 31

Page 5: Fomc 20030408 Material

Exhibit 4Selected Credit Market Indicators

+ denotes today’s observation (taken at approximately 11:00 am).

40

42

44

46

48 Basis Points

03/13 03/14 03/17 03/18 03/19 03/20 03/21 03/24 03/25 03/26 03/27 03/28 03/31 04/01 04/02 04/03 04/04 04/07 04/08

Last Monday4:00 pm

Ten-year Swap Spread

Five-minute intervals

Stock Prices and Credit Default Swap Premia for Selected Financial Intermediaries

1. Bank of America

2. Citigroup

3. Goldman Sachs

4. Lehman Brothers

5. Merrill Lynch

69.75

37.35

72.35

61.17

38.41

69.50

35.46

70.27

59.69

36.74

0.4

5.3

3.0

2.5

4.5

25.0

22.0

42.0

42.0

47.0

31.0

34.0

56.8

54.2

56.8

-6.0

-12.0

-14.8

-12.2

-9.8

Stock Prices CDS PremiaToday4/8/03*

(1)

Wednesday3/19/03

(2)Change(1)-(2)

Today4/8/03*

(3)

Wednesday3/19/03

(4)Change(3)-(4)

-percent- -basis points-

* Quotes taken at approximately 11:00 am.

Jan. Feb. Mar.2003

26

28

30

32PercentSwaption Implied Volatility (Ten-year Swap Rate)

Three-months ahead

One-year ahead +

+

Daily

April 8, 2003 18 of 31

Page 6: Fomc 20030408 Material

Exhibit 5Other Indicators of Market Stress

+ denotes today’s observation (taken at approximately 11:00 am).

Foreign Exchange Rates

Dollar/Euro

Yen/Dollar

Dollar/Pound

Swiss Franc/Dollar

1.07

120.05

1.55

1.39

1.06

120.52

1.56

1.39

1.0

-0.4

-0.9

-0.2

Today4/8/03*

(1)

Wednesday3/19/03

(2)Change(1)-(2)

-percent-

* Quotes taken at approximately 11:00 am.

Jan. Feb. Mar.2003

28

30

32

34

36

38

40US $

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Spot Price

+

Daily

Jan. Feb. Mar.2003

26

28

30

32

34

36

38US $

May 2003

Jun. 2003

Dec. 2003

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Futures Prices

+

+

+

Daily

Jan. Feb. Mar.

2003

330

340

350

360

370

380

390US $Gold Spot Price

+

Daily

April 8, 2003 19 of 31

Page 7: Fomc 20030408 Material

Exhibit 6

MARA:HM

Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan2001 2002 2003

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

Selected Components of M2$Billions

Liquid Deposits

Small TimeRetail MMMFs

Money Stock Currency

0

3

6

9

12

15

Growth of M2

s.a.a.r.

Percent

p

p Preliminary.

Q1 Q2 J A S O N D J F M

2001 2002 2003

-2

1

4

7

10

13

16

19

Growth of Bank Credit Percent

e

e Estimate.

s.a.a.r.

Q1 Q2 J A S O N D J F M

2001 2002 2003

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Commercial paper*C&I loans*Bonds

Growth of Components ofNonfinancial Business Debt

$Billions

Total

2001 2002 2003 Q1 Q2 J A S O N D J F M

p

p Preliminary.

Monthly rate

* Seasonally adjusted.

April 8, 2003 20 of 31

Page 8: Fomc 20030408 Material

Appendix 2: Material used by Ms. Johnson

April 8, 2003 21 of 31

Page 9: Fomc 20030408 Material

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II-FOMC

Recent Developments in International Financial Markets

April 8, 2003

Note: Today’s data are as of 9:30 am EST.

April 8, 2003 22 of 31

Page 10: Fomc 20030408 Material

Chart 1 04-08-03

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

Jan Feb Mar

Daily

FOMC Mar 12 FOMC

Indexes of Trade-Weighted Value of the Dollar

Major currencies

Other importanttrading partners

Broad

Change since 3/12Major curr.BroadOITP

2.1% 0.7% -1.0%

Apr

Index, March 12, 2003 = 100

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

Jan Feb Mar

Daily

FOMC Mar 12 FOMC

Selected Exchange Rates(Foreign currency per dollar)

Yen

Euro

Sterling

Canadian dollar

Swiss franc

Change since 3/12Can. dollarSwiss francEuroYenSterling

0.1% 4.5% 3.2% 2.4% 3.9%

Apr

Index, March 12, 2003 = 100

April 8, 2003 23 of 31

Page 11: Fomc 20030408 Material

Chart 2 04-08-03

Selected Yield Curves

0

1

2

3

4

3-Month Eurocurrency Futures Rates

J S D M J S D M2003 2004 2005

April 8, 2003April 1, 2003March 17, 2003

YenPercent

2

3

4

5

6

J S D M J S D M2003 2004 2005

EuroPercent

2

3

4

5

6

J S D M J S D M2003 2004 2005

SterlingPercent

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

J S D M J S D M2003 2004 2005

DollarPercent

2004 2006 2008 2010 20120

1

2

3

4

1-Year Forward Rates Derived From Swaps

April 8, 2003April 1, 2003March 17, 2003

YenPercent

2004 2006 2008 2010 20122

3

4

5

6

EuroPercent

2004 2006 2008 2010 20122

3

4

5

6

SterlingPercent

2004 2006 2008 2010 20121

2

3

4

5

6

7

DollarPercent

April 8, 2003 24 of 31

Page 12: Fomc 20030408 Material

Chart 3 04-08-03

Stock Market Indexes

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

Jan Feb Mar

(Ratio scale, Index, March 12, 2003 = 100, daily data)

FOMC Mar 12 FOMC

DJ Euro

DJ Euro Tech

DJ Euro Bank

Change since 3/12 DJ EuroDJ Euro TechDJ Euro Bank

19.9% 21.1% 20.9%

Apr

Euro Area

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

Jan Feb Mar

FOMC Mar 12 FOMC

FTSE-350 FTSE-techMark

FTSE-Bank

Change since 3/12FTSE-350FTSE-TechFTSE-Bank

17.1% 12.9% 20.0%

Apr

United Kingdom

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

Jan Feb Mar

FOMC Mar 12 FOMC

TOPIX

TOPIX-EM

TOPIX-Bank

Change since 3/12TOPIXTOPIX-EMTOPIX-Bank

2.6% 2.7% -5.3%

Apr

Japan

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

Jan Feb Mar

FOMC Mar 12 FOMC

S&P 500

NASDAQ

S&P Banks

Change since 3/12S&P 500NASDAQS&P Bank

9.2% 8.6%

16.3%

Apr*Last observation, Monday, Apr. 7

United States

April 8, 2003 25 of 31

Page 13: Fomc 20030408 Material

Chart 4 04-08-03

Crude Oil Futures Prices

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

Jan Feb Mar

Daily

WTI May

Brent May

Brent May -$8.58WTI May -$8.21

Change since 3/12

March 12 FOMC FOMC

$/barrel

Implied Distributions from Oil Futures OptionsApril 7, 2003

May 2003 WTI

Dec 2003 WTI

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

F F

$/barrel

Futures Volatility 2/3 Bounds Skew1 Skew2Implied

May 2003 Contract 28.0 57.24 [25.92,29.93] +0.09 -0.03Dec 2003 Contract 25.0 29.87 [19.37,29.72] -0.51 -0.15

April 8, 2003 26 of 31

Page 14: Fomc 20030408 Material

Appendix 3: Materials used by Mr. Stockton

April 8, 2003 27 of 31

Page 15: Fomc 20030408 Material

April 8, 2003

NONFINANCIALDEVELOPMENTS

April 8, 2003 28 of 31

Page 16: Fomc 20030408 Material

April 8, 2003 29 of 31

Page 17: Fomc 20030408 Material

April 8, 2003 30 of 31

Page 18: Fomc 20030408 Material

April 8, 2003 31 of 31